Jersey Counties Research Articles

Spatial Clustering of Rabies by Animal Species in New Jersey, United States, from 1989 to 2023.

Identifying spatial clusters of rabies in animals aids policymakers in allocating resources for rabies prevention and control. This study aimed to investigate spatial patterns and hotspots of rabies in different animal species at the county level in New Jersey. Data on animal rabies cases from January 1989 to December 2023 were obtained from the New Jersey Department of Health and aggregated by county. Global Moran's index (I) statistics were computed for each species to detect global spatial clustering (GeoDa version 1.22). Local Moran's indicators of spatial association (LISA) were computed to identify local clusters of rabies. The results from the LISA analysis were mapped using ArcGIS Pro to pinpoint cluster locations. A total of 9637 rabies cases were analyzed among raccoons (n = 6308), skunks (n = 1225), bats (n = 1072), cats (n = 597), foxes (n = 225), and groundhogs (n = 210). A global Moran's test indicated significant global spatial clustering in raccoons (I = 0.32, p = 0.012), foxes (I = 0.29, p = 0.011), and groundhogs (I = 0.37, p = 0.005). The LISA results revealed significant spatial clustering of rabies in raccoons and foxes in southeastern New Jersey and in groundhogs in northern New Jersey. These findings could guide the development of targeted oral rabies vaccination programs in high-risk New Jersey counties, reducing rabies exposure among domestic animals and humans.

Impact of Fraxinus snag fall on electric distribution and infrastructure stability: An empirical analysis

With increasing climate variability and the movement of exotic pests and diseases, the rate of forest mortality has become an issue of global concern. Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), as one such pest, is causing the mass mortality of ash trees, Fraxinus spp., thus leading to an ongoing surge in the number of snags across North America. Snags are dead-standing trees that pose an extant threat to nearby infrastructure and buildings. In this article, we evaluate the impacts which snags pose to electrical distribution infrastructure. New Jersey, a state with a high degree of urbanization, has an extensive electric grid located in forested areas. New Jersey is currently in the process of upgrading the electric distribution network, which will increase the height of electric distribution lines to increase resiliency and potential capacity. This article demonstrates a yearly risk assessment methodology for Fraxinus snags using an integrated GIS, differential equation, and applied regression model framework under two distribution network parameterizations. The framework is applied to three northern New Jersey counties (Warren, Sussex, and Morris), which are managed by one utility, New Jersey Central Power and Light, and which are home to most of New Jersey’s Fraxinus trees.

Community Networks with a Family Focus: Success Factors in Implementing a TANF Funded Housing Support Program

Although the US safety net includes housing supports, finding and securing affordable housing remains a challenge for many low-income families. As a block grant to states, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) is a potential mechanism for creating additional supports for housing, which some states such as New Jersey pursue. This qualitative study focuses on three New Jersey counties with positive track records of implementing those additional supports. Research questions concern what factors contributed to successful implementation of the housing supportive Emergency Assistance Program on a county level and how these factors interacted to impact program effectiveness. From thematic coding of interviews with government and nonprofit staff at the state and county levels (N = 17), document reviews, and meeting observations, this study found that the program was incorporated as one piece of a family-centered approach to social service provision. Having a tight network between service providers with strong commitment to the program, vital in previous social service research as well as the current study, fed into that family-centered approach and successful implementation. Future research should examine how to build staff buy-in and mission-driven approaches with a family focus as well as center the voices of participants in these programs.

Neighborhood Disadvantage, African Genetic Ancestry, Cancer Subtype, and Mortality Among Breast Cancer Survivors.

Racial disparities in breast cancer (BC) survival arise from multilevel causes, which may exert influence at different stages of BC progression. Clarifying the importance of genetic and social factors could help prioritize interventions. To jointly examine associations between African genetic ancestry, social environment, and mortality from any cause and BC in Black BC survivors. This population-based cohort study enrolled self-identified Black women aged 20 to 75 years with histologically confirmed BC from June 2005 to May 2019 and followed them up until death or censoring in September 2021. Participants lived in 10 New Jersey counties. Data were analyzed between December 2022 and April 2023. A neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) index composed of census tract measures (education, income, wealth, employment status, and occupation) was linked to residential addresses at diagnosis. Percentage African ancestry was estimated using the ADMIXTURE program. Sequentially adjusted (age adjusted: age and interview year; fully adjusted: age adjusted with individual SES, lifestyle factors, and comorbidities) logistic regression models were fit to estimate associations with tumor subtypes (estrogen receptor-negative [ER-] vs estrogen receptor-positive [ER+]; triple-negative breast cancer [TNBC] vs luminal A), and Cox models were fit for associations with all-cause mortality (ACM) and breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM). Models for BCSM were fit using Fine-Gray competing risks models, and robust standard errors were used to account for census tract-level clustering. Among 1575 participants, median (IQR) African ancestry was 85% (76%-90%), and median (IQR) age was 55 (46-63) years. A 10-percentage point increase in African ancestry was associated with higher odds of ER- vs ER+ (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.08; 95% CI, 0.98-1.18) and TNBC vs luminal (aOR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.31) tumors, but not with ACM or BCSM. A 1-IQR increase in nSES was associated with lower ACM (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), and the HR for BCSM was less than 1 but not statistically significant (aHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.62-1.04) in age-adjusted models, but associations attenuated following further adjustment for potential mediators (individual SES, lifestyles, comorbidities). In this cohort study of Black female BC survivors, higher African ancestry was associated with aggressive tumor subtypes. Compared with genetic ancestry, mediating pathways related to social environments may be more important for survival in these patients.

Comparisons of beliefs in mental health stigma in communities and those who police them

The police response towards people with mental illness (PwMI) is coming under increasingly intense scrutiny. Numerous jurisdictions have experienced incidents where the police have used force against persons who were exhibiting symptoms of severe mental illness. PwMI are subject to long-held stereotypes and stigma, and recent research indicates these negative attitudes remain, even with training and awareness campaigns. Available literature provides research on citizen and police perceptions of PwMI separately, but no recent studies have compared perceptions of police officers to those held by the members of the communities they patrol. The current study involves a comparison of residents in five southern New Jersey counties and police officers working in these same counties. Both sets of participants responded to a series of statements about perceptions of PwMI. Police were more likely to report supporting stigmatizing views of PwMI than were community members. Negative community response and rejection of police tactics may be rooted partly in differing expectations of treatment towards PwMI in crisis.

Officer Trust Towards Community Members and Critical Incidents: a Comparison of Factors.

Current scholarship suggests attention should be focused on differences in specific job-related conditions to understand help-seeking behavior among police officers. This project examines how officers’ feelings of department satisfaction and on-the-job emotions may be associated with trust in members of the community they police. Specifically, officers were asked to report trust levels both in a general sense and in the context of a potential officer-involved shooting (OIS) incident. Print and electronic surveys were completed by 169 police officers across 9 agencies located in 5 New Jersey counties between September 2019 and March 2020. Survey questions covered frequency of on-the-job emotions, satisfaction with department administration, and knowledge of local culture. Bivariate comparisons show officers’ levels of both general and post-OIS community trust significantly differ based on reported frequency of emotion, assessment of job satisfaction and department administration, and wider cultural context. Furthermore, multivariate analyses indicate significant factors associated with trust levels include frequency of both positive (fulfillment) and negative (frustration) emotions, satisfaction with training, and attitudes towards the importance of understanding local culture. Findings suggest the complexity of police–community relationships should be more fully explored in relation to supporting aspects of job-related mental wellness in police officers.

Cycles of Chronic Opioid Therapy Following Mandatory Prescription Drug Monitoring Program Legislation: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Mandates for prescriber use of prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs), databases tracking controlled substance prescriptions, are associated with reduced opioid analgesic (OA) prescribing but may contribute to care discontinuity and chronic opioid therapy (COT) cycling, or multiple initiations and terminations. To estimate risks of COT cycling in New York City (NYC) due to the New York State (NYS) PDMP mandate, compared to risks in neighboring New Jersey (NJ) counties. We estimated cycling risk using Prentice, Williams, and Peterson gap-time models adjusted for age, sex, OA dose, payment type, and county population density, using a life-table difference-in-differences design. Failure time was duration between cycles. In a subgroup analysis, we estimated risk among patients receiving high-dose prescriptions. Sensitivity analyses tested robustness to cycle volume considering only first cycles using Cox proportional hazard models. The cohort included 7604 patients dispensed 12,695 prescriptions. The exposure was the August 2013 enactment of the NYS PDMP prescriber use mandate. We used monthly, patient-level data on OA prescriptions dispensed in NYC and NJ between August 2011 and July 2015. We defined COT as three sequential months of prescriptions, permitting 1-month gaps. We defined recurrence as re-initiation of COT after at least 2 months without prescriptions. The exposure was enactment of the PDMP mandate in NYC; NJ was unexposed. Enactment of the NYS PDMP mandate was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for cycling of 1.01 (95% CI, 0.94-1.08) in NYC. For high-dose prescriptions, the risk was 1.16 (95% CI, 1.01-1.34). Sensitivity analyses estimated an overall risk of 1.01 (95% CI, 0.94-1.11) and high-dose risk of 1.09 (95% CI, 0.91-1.31). The PDMP mandate had no overall effect on COT cycling in NYC but increased cycling risk among patients receiving high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16%, highlighting care discontinuity.

Development of an Index to Measure West Nile Virus Transmission Risk in New Jersey Counties

We developed an index for use by New Jersey counties to measure West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk to the human population. We used a latent profile analysis to develop the index, identifying categories of environmental conditions associated with WNV transmission risk to humans. The final model included 4 indicators of transmission risk: mosquito abundance and minimum field infection rate, temperature, and human case count. We used data from 2004 to 2018 from all 21 New Jersey counties aggregated into 11 2-wk units per county per year (N = 3,465). Three WNV risk classes were identified. The Low Risk class had low levels of all variables. The Moderate Risk class had high abundance, average temperature levels, and low levels of the other variables. The High Risk class had substantially above average human case likelihood, average temperature, and high mosquito infection rates. These results suggest the presence of 3 distinct WNV risk profiles, which can be used to guide the development of public health actions intended to mitigate WNV transmission risk to the human population.

Modeling Effects of Spatial Heterogeneities and Layered Exposure Interventions on the Spread of COVID-19 across New Jersey.

COVID-19 created an unprecedented global public health crisis during 2020–2021. The severity of the fast-spreading infection, combined with uncertainties regarding the physical and biological processes affecting transmission of SARS-CoV-2, posed enormous challenges to healthcare systems. Pandemic dynamics exhibited complex spatial heterogeneities across multiple scales, as local demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral and environmental factors were modulating population exposures and susceptibilities. Before effective pharmacological interventions became available, controlling exposures to SARS-CoV-2 was the only public health option for mitigating the disease; therefore, models quantifying the impacts of heterogeneities and alternative exposure interventions on COVID-19 outcomes became essential tools informing policy development. This study used a stochastic SEIR framework, modeling each of the 21 New Jersey counties, to capture important heterogeneities of COVID-19 outcomes across the State. The models were calibrated using confirmed daily deaths and SQMC optimization and subsequently applied in predictive and exploratory modes. The predictions achieved good agreement between modeled and reported death data; counterfactual analysis was performed to assess the effectiveness of layered interventions on reducing exposures to SARS-CoV-2 and thereby fatality of COVID-19. The modeling analysis of the reduction in exposures to SARS-CoV-2 achieved through concurrent social distancing and face-mask wearing estimated that 357 [IQR (290, 429)] deaths per 100,000 people were averted.

An Analysis of Poverty Indicators in New Jersey Counties

An Analysis of Poverty Indicators in New Jersey Counties

The effect of food insecurity on the prevalence of adult obesity in New Jersey counties

Abstract Obesity and food insecurity are prevalent public health concerns that influence factors at both the individual and community levels. Given that obesity is linked to a number of health concerns including heart disease and diabetes, national efforts have been formed to reduce obesity rates among these populations. The purpose of the study is to determine the effect of food-insecure households and associated risk factors on the prevalence of obesity among adults in New Jersey counties. The researchers hypothesized that counties with higher rates of food-secure households and associated risk factors would yield higher rates of obesity among the adult population. An ecological cross-sectional study was performed using secondary data from New Jersey Health Assessment and Census databases focused specifically on all 21 counties in New Jersey. The independent variables were selected from the social indicators available in the datasets consulted: food insecurity rate, physical activity rate, median household income, frequent mental health distress, routine health visit, and percent of adults self-reporting good, very good, or excellent health status. These independent variables were tested against adult obesity rates among New Jersey counties. It was revealed that rising obesity rates among adults were linked to increased rates of food insecurity, lower median household income, and lower perceived health status. Future research may investigate additional social determinants in relation to obesity rates in order to improve public health interventions within communities to increase health outcomes among adults. Key messages Obesity and food insecurity are prevalent public health concerns that influence factors at both the individual and community levels. Rising obesity rates among adults are linked to increased rates of food insecurity, lower median household income, and lower perceived health status.

Resilience to the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Disasters

TPS 662: Climate change effects on labour, migration and infections, Exhibition Hall, Ground floor, August 28, 2019, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM Background: A growing body of literature documents the health impacts of weather-related disasters and a projected acceleration of global warming is expected to increase the frequency and severity of these events. Government agencies have called for enhancing citizens’ resilience as a way to prepare populations in advance of disasters. However, there is little empirical evidence to link measures of resilience to disaster-related health outcomes, hindering full consideration of health from the evaluation of resilience strategies and policies. In late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the northeastern United States coastline with devastating impacts. Within this context, we examine whether the spatial patterning of morbidity due to the storm can be explained by community-level resilience characteristics. Methods: Emergency department (ED) visit data for 16 New Jersey counties, which were highly impacted by Sandy, was obtained from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate each county’s increase in risk of ED visits for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and myocardial infarction (MI) due to Hurricane Sandy. We examined variation in county-level associations according to the county’s resilience, defined by the Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC) index. Results: In the month following the storm, across highly impacted counties, there was a 10.5% (95% PI: 7.2, 14.0) increase in COPD ED visits and a 12.3% (95% PI: 6.7, 18.2) increase in MI ED visits. The effect of the storm on COPD visits decreased by 2.6% for a z-score increase in the BRIC index [-2.58%, 95% PI: (-5.3, 0.2)]. County level variation in resilience did not explain variation in MI ED visits. Conclusions: Community-level resilience measures may explain some variation in health impacts due to weather-related disasters. Future work will investigate the domains of resilience that contribute to this effect, as well as possible interventions to increase such resilience.

Flow Cytometric Analysis of Freshwater Cyanobacteria: A Case Study

Eutrophication is a process that occurs due to the excessive accumulation of nutrients, primarily nitrogen and phosphorus, from natural and anthropogenic sources. This phenomenon causes cyanobacterial overgrowth, which over time leads to cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CHABs) that affect public drinking water sources and water sites with recreational usage. The rapid detection of bloom-forming cyanobacteria in freshwater bodies is critical in order to implement prevention strategies. Cyanobacteria contain phycobiliproteins such as phycoerythrin and allophycocyanin as part of the phycobilisome that allows autofluorescence. In this study, samples from 36 freshwater bodies in 14 New Jersey counties were collected and analyzed using flow cytometry with forward-scatter phycoerythrin and allophycocyanin parameters. Pure cultures of Synechococcus sp. IU 625, Cylindrospermum spp. and Microcystis aeruginosa were used as references. The results revealed that 17 out of the 36 analyzed sites contained all three references and related species. Seven sites showed Microcystis and Cylindrospermum-like species, while four sites indicated Microcystis and Cylindrospermum-like species. Six water bodies showed Cylindrospermum-like species, and two sites showed Microcystis-like species. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assays further confirmed the flow cytometric results. The findings from this study suggest that flow cytometry could potentially serve as a rapid method for freshwater cyanobacteria detection and screening.

Modeling interdependencies of critical infrastructures after hurricane Sandy

This paper evaluates the level of inoperability and the resilience of the critical infrastructure networks of the New York Metropolitan Area affected by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. The region analyzed in the case study includes New York City and some New Jersey counties. The highly concentrated critical infrastructures of this area are vulnerable to the direct impact of catastrophic events, such as hurricanes, as well as to the disruptive cascading effects that are spread through the existing interdependencies. The inoperability Input-Output model, developed by Haimes and Jiang, is selected to numerically define the degree of interconnection among these systems and quantify the effect of an external perturbation on the network's functionality. Based on the model's results, a new indicator called the “inoperability ratio” is introduced to identify some initiatives that policymakers can implement during the restoration process. These actions reduce the inoperability ratio to prevent cascading effects and to speed up the recovery process.

Increases in Mortality for All Causes and All Cancers Combined before and after Startup of a Nuclear Power Plant in New Jersey, USA

The Salem/Hope Creek nuclear plant in southern New Jersey is one of just four U.S. plants with three large reactors (all others consist of one or two). These reactors started operations in 1976, 1980, and 1986 and routinely released toxic radioactive gases and particles into the environment. Only a single study has been performed by federal officials on cancer near nuclear plants—a study now 30 years old. A review of official mortality data using four-year periods shows the Salem County cancer death rate was consistently just below that of other New Jersey counties up to the mid-1980s. However, from 1983-1986 to 2015-2017, the county rate soared from -5.4% below the rest of the state to +32.6% above. The county/state mortality ratio for all causes also increased rapidly in these periods, from +0.6% above to +28.4% above the state. Salem now has the highest cancer death rate, and the 2nd highest total death rate of any New Jersey county. Had the 1983-1986 county-state ratios not changed in the following 31 years, 3493 fewer deaths (1018 of them from cancer) would have occurred among Salem County residents. The lack of any apparent etiologies that could have caused such a dramatic and unexpected change, plus the fact that the Salem/Hope Creek reactors are aging, corroding, and more prone to leaking radionuclides, emphasizes the immediate need for more studies of this type, and the inclusion of local health as a crucial factor in public decisions on the plant’s future.

Social Disorganization Theory: The Role of Diversity in New Jersey’s Hate Crimes Based on Race and Ethnicity

The purpose of this correlational panel study was to test Shaw and McKay’s theory of social disorganization by examining the relationship between demographic diversity and hate crime rates. The study focused on the relationship between the level of diversity, residential mobility, unemployment, family disruption, proximity to urban areas, and population density in all 21 New Jersey counties and hate crime rates. The existing data of Federal Bureau of Investigations’ hate crime rates and the U.S. Census Bureau’s demographic diversity were operationalized as the percentage of Whites over all other races, and social disorganization from the 21 counties of New Jersey between the years 2007 through 2011, for a total sample size of 105 cases of reported hate crimes. Results of the multiple linear regression analysis indicate that ethnic diversity did not significantly predict hate crimes; residential mobility and population density had positive effects on hate crime rates. Concentrated disadvantage, characterized by the number of reported unemployment rates, had a negative effect on hate crime rates. The results of the study supported social disorganization theory in reference to residential mobility and population density.

Concordance in the relative mortality rates for prostate cancer and gastric cancer in African Americans.

270 Background: The racial disparity in outcomes for prostate cancer, gastric cancer, and multiple myeloma is demonstrated by these malignancies having the highest age-adjusted mortality rate ratio for black Americans versus white Americans. A variety of factors have been identified as contributing to this disparity, leading to our hypothesis that there would not be concordance, in respect to the mean, when the county-level age-adjusted black: white mortality rate ratio for a malignancy was compared to the other two malignancies. Methods: Publically available information from cancerrates.gov was used to obtain county-level data in regards to race-specific age-adjusted mortality rates for prostate cancer, gastric cancer, and multiple myeloma. Counties with potentially unstable age-adjusted mortality rates were excluded. A malignancy’s age-adjusted mortality rate for blacks was divided by the complementary rate for whites to determine the black: white mortality rate ratio. Across a county, malignancies were compared for concordance in mortality rate ratios relative to the mean ratio for that malignancy. After a preliminary inspection noted that all New Jersey counties had a markedly lower black: white mortality ratio for gastric cancer than other counties in the data set, the New Jersey counties were excluded from analysis and odds ratios for concordance were calculated. Results: All counties (n = 68) had a black: white age-adjusted mortality ratio of > 1 for each malignancy. In the analyzed counties (n = 52), there was a statistically significant concordance in black: white mortality rate ratios for prostate cancer and gastric cancer (OR = 3.26, p = 0.046). The black: white mortality rate ratios for neither prostate cancer (OR = 1.17, p = 0.78) nor gastric cancer (OR = 1.17, p = 0.78) demonstrated a statistically significant concordance with multiple myeloma. Conclusions: The concordance in the black: white mortality rate ratios for prostate cancer and gastric cancer in this dataset indicate that these two malignancies may share common clinical, environmental, or genetic factors in African-Americans. Future research is needed into what common factors may contribute to disparities in these two malignancies.

A randomized controlled trial of nutrition education to promote farmers’ market fruit and vegetable purchases and consumption among women enrolled in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC): rationale and design of the WIC Fresh Start program

This report describes the protocol guiding the design and evaluation of a theory-driven, web-based lesson to promote farmers’ market fruit and vegetable (FV) purchases and consumption among women enrolled in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). Designed to leverage vouchers provided to WIC participants for FV purchases through the Farmers’ Market Nutrition Program (FMNP) and monthly cash value vouchers (CVVs) redeemable at farmers’ markets, the lesson is conceptually grounded in formative research on knowledge, attitudes and skills influencing farmers’ market FV purchases and consumption and theoretical understanding of approaches for modifying them. The setting is a large WIC agency serving three New Jersey counties. Separate samples of women were recruited to participate in 1) focus groups for guiding lesson content development (N = 56) and pretesting the resulting content (N = 52), 2) cognitive testing to assess the clarity and interpretability of items and response formats in measures of knowledge, attitudes and skills developed for the study (N = 15), 3) one-on-one sessions to assess reactions to initial versions of video segments developed for the lesson (N = 20), and 4) the outcome evaluation (N = 744). Stratified based on FMNP voucher receipt, participants are randomized to receive the lesson or existing online health education. Outcome measures (administered orally to reduce literacy demands of the response task) are completed at pretest (immediately before the lesson), posttest (2 weeks after the lesson), and 3 and 6 months after posttesting. Short- and long-term lesson effects on FV intake, FMNP voucher redemption and the redemption of CVVs at farmers’ markets will be evaluated. Evidence for mediation by knowledge, attitudes and skills of lesson effects on FV intake and voucher redemption, dose-response relationships, and user satisfaction with the lesson also will be examined. Theory-driven, web-based nutrition education expressly designed for WIC to promote farmers’ market use is lacking. The WIC Fresh Start program addresses the paucity of programs of this type. Findings will advance understanding of effective approaches for promoting farmers’ market FV purchases and consumption among WIC participants. NCT02565706 (registered September 30, 2015)

Walter David Greason. Suburban Erasure: How the Suburbs Ended the Civil Rights Movement in New Jersey.

Walter David Greason's “suburbs” do not fit neatly as a distinctive middle ground between rural and urban America. In this wide-ranging meditation—part historical exegesis, part jeremiad—on the African American experience in what is today metropolitan New Jersey, Greason contributes to the ongoing dialogue about race matters in the North from the close of the Civil War to the present day. Suburban Erasure: How the Suburbs Ended the Civil Rights Movement in New Jersey focuses on a rural corridor stretching across seven central New Jersey counties. (There is, regrettably, no map included for those who may not have a keen sense of the state's geography.) Drawing on documents in many archives, oral histories, government reports, and the latest scholarship, Greason devotes his attention to the intersection of white supremacist public policy and African Americans' adaptation to felt realities. In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, blacks regularly served suburban whites' needs for physical labor or some form of domestic service, but were socially invisible, denied access to quality housing, schooling, and recreational facilities. After 1945, as legal challenges undermined the foundations of white supremacy, whites found other means of assuring their dominance through the construction of school and electoral district boundaries, continued insistence on “home rule,” and effective opposition to affordable (i.e., public) housing.

The Impact of a Risk Assessment Instrument on Juvenile Detention Decision-making: A Check on “Perceptual Shorthand” and “Going Rates”?

This study assesses the impact of a juvenile detention risk assessment instrument (RAI) on decision-making in five New Jersey counties. It uses a pretest–posttest design, drawing on a sample of decisions matched across time periods using propensity scores (N = 1,432). It suggests that the RAI, supported by other reforms, lowers overall rates of detention. Though evidence is not strong, findings suggest the RAI may have reduced reliance on “perceptual shorthand” variables reflected in the juvenile’s age and the time of day of the decision. There is stronger evidence that the RAI increased reliance on the specific factors contained within its risk score. There is also evidence that RAI reduced disparities in detention rates across counties, perhaps by diminishing the importance of “going rates” for detention, rooted in local courtroom workgroups.