Warming In January Research Articles

Modeling the influence of changes in neutral atmosphere parameters on ionospheric electron density

Based on the modified numerical model of the ionosphere and plasmasphere developed at ISTP SB RAS, we calculated the height profiles of the electron density Ne for the quiet and disturbed thermospheric conditions of January 25, 2009 at the geographical location of Irkutsk (52.4N, 104.3E). The disturbed conditions were simulated by varying the neutral temperature T in the thermosphere. At heights below 180 km and above 250 km, with an increase/decrease in T, an increase/decrease in Ne occurs. At 180–250 km, the opposite pattern is seen: an increase/decrease in T causes a decrease/increase in Ne. The opposite pattern of the change in the Ne profile is associated with the influence of the atomic oxygen to molecular nitrogen density ratio [O]/[N2] at heights of the F-region. Quantitative estimates of the change in Ne at different heights with changes in the neutral temperature were obtained. It has been established that a change in T by 1 K leads to a change in Ne by 0.2–0.3%. The modeling results were compared with observations of the peak electron density NmF2 obtained with the Irkutsk ionosonde during the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009.

Evaluating Numerical Weather Prediction Models in the Middle Atmosphere Using Coherent Oceanic Acoustic Noise Observations

AbstractWe develop a method to assess numerical weather prediction (NWP) model performances from the mid‐stratosphere to the mesosphere‐lower thermosphere (30–120 km), through comparisons between observed and simulated amplitude of oceanic infrasound known as microbaroms. We adapt a recently published array processing algorithm, the multichannel maximum‐likelihood (MCML), to the 360‐observations of microbaroms. We simulate infrasound propagation using a source model and atmospheric specifications prescribed by NWP models. As this study paves the way for the assimilation of microbarom observations in these models, we assess the different components of our method. The sensitivity of the NWP model assessments to the acoustic propagation is investigated. We demonstrate the limitations of a parametrized attenuation solely driven by atmospheric fields at the infrasound station (a method previously used due to its computational efficiency) by comparing it with an explicit simulation retaining the whole 3D atmospheric fields. Importantly, in the microbarom simulations, we account for the array response to allow one‐to‐one comparisons with observations. We also highlight an observed intermittent semi‐diurnal periodicity, whose occurrence depends on middle‐atmospheric conditions, pointing at arrivals from the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Hence, its variability needs to be accounted for in the simulations. We use a circular optimal transport metric to quantify differences between simulated and observed microbarom azimuthal distributions in a systematic way. We present NWP models relative performances diagnostics over periods of interest, including a sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021. We discuss how our approach provides insights into the model performances in the middle atmosphere.

Reduced aerosol transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau following the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming event

Aerosols from South Asia directly enhance glacier melt over the Tibetan Plateau. While the transboundary transport of aerosols from South Asia towards the Tibetan Plateau has been extensively investigated from a tropospheric perspective, less focus has been given to the stratospheric dimension. Here we examined the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021 on aerosol transport from South Asia towards the Tibetan Plateau via numerical simulation. The results revealed that the aerosol transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau reduced by 30%–40% following the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming event. The eastward-propagating wave train stimulated by the stratospheric sudden warming induced an anticyclonic anomaly from the Persian Gulf to northern China, south of which easterly anomalies hindered the aerosol transport from South Asia to the Plateau. This study provides valuable insights for predicting air quality over the Tibetan Plateau.

Arctic and Pacific Ocean Conditions Were Favorable for Cold Extremes over Eurasia and North America during Winter 2020/21

Abstract A sequence of extreme cold events occurred across Eurasia and North America during winter 2020/21. Here, we explore the causes and associated mechanisms for the extremely cold temperatures using both observations and large-ensemble simulations. Experiments were conducted with observed ocean surface boundary conditions prescribed globally, and regionally to discern the specific influence of Arctic, tropical Pacific, and North Pacific drivers. Increased likelihood of daily cold extremes in mid-December to mid-January are found in Eurasian midlatitudes in response to reduced Arctic sea ice. Tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, more specifically the La Niña pattern, increased probability of extreme cold over high-latitude Eurasia in early January to early February. Both reduced Arctic sea ice and La Niña increased the probability of daily cold extremes over western North America in late January to late February. We conclude that a combination of reduced Arctic sea ice, La Niña, and a sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021 were factors in the February 2021 extreme cold wave that caused huge societal disruptions in Texas and the southern Great Plains. Although the magnitude of the simulated cold extremes are relatively small when compared with observed anomalies, the Arctic and Pacific Ocean surface conditions in winter 2020/21 increased the probability of cold days as cold or colder than observed by approximately 17%–43%.

The sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021

Using the ERA5 reanalysis, sea surface temperature and sea ice observations, and the real-time multivariate Madden–Julian index, this study explores a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2021, its favorable conditions, and the near surface impact. Wavenumbers 1 and 2 alternately contributed to the total eddy heat flux from mid-December 2020 to late January 2021, and the wavenumber 2 during the onset period nearly split the stratospheric polar vortex. In mid-December 2020 and during the 2021 New Year period (1–5 January 2021), a blocking developed over the Urals, which enhanced the local ridge and the climatological wavenumber 2. Composite results confirm that the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and La Niña favor the deepening of the high latitude North Pacific low and the increase of the Urals height ridge, which together enhance the planetary waves and hence disturb the stratospheric polar vortex. However, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics was dormant in mid-to-late December 2020 and early January 2021, and the well-established statistical relationship between the MJO convection over the western Pacific and the SSW is not applicable to this special case. The cold air outbreak in China during the 2021 New Year period before the January 2021 SSW onset is not explained by the SSW signal which developed in the stratosphere. In contrast, the downward-propagating signal reached the near surface in mid-February 2021, which may contribute to the cold air outbreak in US and may help to explain the extreme coldness of Texas in middle February.

Analysis of the Arctic polar vortex dynamics during the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009

The Arctic polar vortex is often affected by wave activity during its life cycle. The planetary Rossby waves propagating from the troposphere to the stratosphere occasionally lead to the displacement or splitting of the polar vortex, accompanied by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). In January 2009, one of the largest SSWs was observed in the Arctic. In this work, the dynamics of the polar vortex during the 2009 SSW is considered using a new method that allows one to estimate the vortex area, the wind speed at the vortex edge, the mean temperature and ozone mass mixing ratio inside the vortex, based on the fact that the Arctic vortex edge at the 50 and 10 hPa pressure levels is determined by the geopotential values, respectively, 19.5. 104 and 29.5. 104 m2 /s2 , using the ERA5 reanalysis data. The application of this method is justified for the Arctic polar vortex, which is characterized by significant variability, especially during the period of its splitting. The splitting of the polar vortex in 2009 was observed on January 24 and 28, respectively, in the middle and lower stratosphere. About a week after the splitting, the vortices became closer in characteristics to small cyclones, which completely collapsed within 1–3 weeks. The influence of planetary wave activity on the polar vortex does not always lead to its breakdown. Short-term splitting of the polar vortex is sometimes observed for several days after which the polar vortex strengthens again and PSCs form inside the vortex. Such a recovery of the polar vortex is most likely to occur in the winter. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of the Arctic polar vortex for 1979–2020 and using the example of the 2009 SSW, we showed that when the vortex area decreases to less than 10 million km2 and the mean wind speed at the vortex edge decreases below 30 and 45 m/s, respectively, in the lower and middle stratosphere, the polar vortex becomes a small cyclone (with significantly higher temperatures within it), which usually collapses within 3 weeks.

Role of Gravity Waves in a Vortex-Split Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January 2009

AbstractThe role of gravity waves (GWs) in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that occurred in January 2009 (SSW09) is investigated using the MERRA-2 dataset. Nearly 2 weeks prior to the central date (lag = 0), at which the zonal-mean zonal wind at 10 hPa and 60°N first becomes negative, westward GW drag (GWD) is significantly enhanced in the lower mesosphere and stratosphere. At 5 days before lag = 0, planetary waves (PWs) of zonal wavenumber 2 (ZWN-2) in the stratosphere are enhanced, while PWs of ZWN-1 are weakened, which are evident from the amplitudes of the PWs and their Eliassen–Palm flux divergence (EPD). To examine the relationship between PWs and GWs, a nonconservative GWD (NCGWD) source term of the linearized quasigeostrophic potential vorticity equation is considered. A ZWN-2 pattern of the NCGWD forcing is developed around z = 55–60 km with a secondary peak around z = 40 km just before the PWs of ZWN-2 in the stratosphere began to enhance. A significant positive correlation between the NCGWD forcing in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (USLM; 0.3–0.1 hPa in the present data) and the PWs of ZWN-2 in the stratosphere (5–1 hPa) exists. This result demonstrates that the amplification of the PWs of ZWN-2 in the stratosphere before the onset of SSW09 is likely related to the generation of PWs by GWD in the USLM, which is revealed by the enhanced downward-propagating PWs of ZWN-2 into the stratosphere from above.

Ionospheric F Layer Scintillation Weakening as Observed by COSMIC/FORMOSAT‐3 During the Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January 2013

AbstractSudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in Northern Hemisphere winter atmosphere play a significant effect on large ionospheric disturbances. Nevertheless, the SSW effects on small‐scale structure in ionosphere, that is, the ionospheric F layer irregularities, are generally lack of understanding. This work carefully studied the equatorial F layer scintillation during the SSW event extending from 4 January to 5 February in 2013 by using the data of COSMIC/FORMOSAT‐3 (a Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate mission). The occurrence rate of ionospheric F layer scintillation was found to be apparently decreased by about 30% during the SSW period. This phenomenon was obviously seen in American sector (90°W–0°) and African sector (0°–90°E). Another prominent feature was the ~0.5 local time hour delay of maximum scintillation occurrence rate associated with the suppression of equatorial F layer irregularities in the first 2 hr after the sunset during the SSW event in January 2013.

Warming Events Advance or Delay Spring Phenology by Affecting Bud Dormancy Depth in Trees.

The frequency of sudden, strong warming events is projected to increase in the future. The effects of such events on spring phenology of trees might depend on their timing because spring warming has generally been shown to advance spring budburst while fall and winter warming have been shown to delay spring phenology. To understand the mechanism behind timing-specific warming effects on spring phenology, I simulated warming events during fall, mid-winter and at the end of winter and quantified their effects on bud dormancy depth and subsequently on spring leaf out. The warming events were carried out in climate chambers on tree seedlings of Betula pendula and Fagus sylvatica in October, January, and February. Control seedlings were kept at photoperiod and temperature matching the daily fluctuating field conditions. Warmed seedlings were kept 10°C warmer than the control seedlings for 10 days during the respective warming periods. Warming in October increased bud dormancy depth and decreased spring leaf-out rate only for F. sylvatica, whereas warming in February reduced bud dormancy depth and advanced spring leaf-out rate only for B. pendula. Neither bud dormancy depth nor spring leaf out rate were affected by January warming. The results indicate that warming-induced changes in bud dormancy depth may explain species- and timing-specific warming effects on spring phenology. The extent to which the timing of bud dormancy phases is species-specific will influence among-species variation in future spring leaf out times.

Ionospheric Effects of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming in 2009: Results of Simulation with the First Version of the EAGLE Model

In this paper, we discuss perturbations in neutral temperature, total electron content (TEC), and critical frequency of the maximum of the F2 layer (foF2) during the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009. The calculations were performed using the first version of the EAGLE (Entire Atmosphere Global Model), which is a combination of the models of the low–middle atmosphere (HAMMONIA) and the upper atmosphere (GSM TIP). The EAGLE reproduces observed stratospheric warming and related mesospheric cooling in the northern polar cap in January 2009. At thermospheric altitudes, the neutral temperature perturbations have a quasi-wave character with a wavelength of ∼40 km in the vertical direction. Our results indicate that the HAMMONIA model should be used in the EAGLE instead of the GSM TIP model for the neutral temperature calculations in the altitude region from 80 to 120 km. It is shown that the obtained model foF2 and TEC perturbations are mainly related to seasonal variations. The most-pronounced perturbations in the ionospheric electron density due to stratospheric warming are formed near the equator and are basically negative. Our analysis of the neutral temperature and electron density perturbations made it possible to conclude that the dependence of ionospheric parameters on seasonal changes in solar zenith angle is stronger than for the thermosphere parameters.

Two Day Wave Traveling Westward With Wave Number 1 During the Sudden Stratospheric Warming in January 2017

AbstractQuasi‐two day wave propagating westward with wave number 1 (W1) in January 2017 is studied using global temperature observed by Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry and wind observed by a meteor radar at Fuke, China (19.0°N, 109.8°E). The amplitude of W1 significantly enhances during January 2017, when two stratospheric warming events occur. The temperature perturbation of W1 reaches maximum amplitude of more than 6 K at latitude ±15° around ~84 km and ~95 km. The structure of temperature W1 is symmetric with regard to the equator. The temporal variation of W1 is consistent with the stationary planetary wave with wave number 2 (SPW2), but contrary to the quasi‐two day wave propagating westward with wave number 3 (W3). When SPW2 is large during two sudden stratospheric warming events, energy transfers from W3 to W1. Two bursts of the 2 day wave in meridional wind observed by the meteor radar are just corresponding to the local maxima of W3 and W1, respectively. We conclude that during January 2017, W1 is generated by the nonlinear interaction between SPW2 and W3. SPW2 which is modulated by the quasi‐16 day perturbation in the stratosphere plays a key role in the energy transmission from W3 to W1, and it is responsible for the 16 day variation of W1.

Daily estimates of the migrating tide and zonal mean temperature in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere derived from SABER data

AbstractSatellites provide a global view of the structure in the fields that they measure. In the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, the dominant features in these fields at low zonal wave number are contained in the zonal mean, quasi‐stationary planetary waves, and tide components. Due to the nature of the satellite sampling pattern, stationary, diurnal, and semidiurnal components are aliased and spectral methods are typically unable to separate the aliased waves over short time periods. This paper presents a data processing scheme that is able to recover the daily structure of these waves and the zonal mean state. The method is validated by using simulated data constructed from a mechanistic model, and then applied to Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature measurements. The migrating diurnal tide extracted from SABER temperatures for 2009 has a seasonal variability with peak amplitude (20 K at 95 km) in February and March and minimum amplitude (less than 5 K at 95 km) in early June and early December. Higher frequency variability includes a change in vertical structure and amplitude during the major stratospheric warming in January. The migrating semidiurnal tide extracted from SABER has variability on a monthly time scale during January through March, minimum amplitude in April, and largest steady amplitudes from May through September. Modeling experiments were performed that show that much of the variability on seasonal time scales in the migrating tides is due to changes in the mean flow structure and the superposition of the tidal responses to water vapor heating in the troposphere and ozone heating in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere.

Major cause of unprecedented Arctic warming in January 2016: Critical role of an Atlantic windstorm

In January 2016, the Arctic experienced an extremely anomalous warming event after an extraordinary increase in air temperature at the end of 2015. During this event, a strong intrusion of warm and moist air and an increase in downward longwave radiation, as well as a loss of sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas, were observed. Observational analyses revealed that the abrupt warming was triggered by the entry of a strong Atlantic windstorm into the Arctic in late December 2015, which brought enormous moist and warm air masses to the Arctic. Although the storm terminated at the eastern coast of Greenland in late December, it was followed by a prolonged blocking period in early 2016 that sustained the extreme Arctic warming. Numerical experiments indicate that the warming effect of sea ice loss and associated upward turbulent heat fluxes are relatively minor in this event. This result suggests the importance of the synoptically driven warm and moist air intrusion into the Arctic as a primary contributing factor of this extreme Arctic warming event.

Analysis of the air temperature records of Djelfa's meteorological station from 1975 to 2014 'the reality of Djelfa's climate warming'

The delay of defoliation, the advance of blooming, in January, of some recently planted palm trees, the appearance of the housefly in winter, and the disappearance of the featuring cold and frost of Djelfa both prompted the need of a scientific explanation, based on the analyses of mean, minimum and maximum air temperatures records for a period of 40 years by the methods [coefficient of variation (CV), trend test, correlation and homogeneity test], which have shown that, although, the fluctuations of the mean temperature, especially in winter (CV = 27%), a global warming of 1°C was recorded, more due to Tmin (1.4°C) than to Tmax (0.92°C). Summer was the most warming season, then autumn and finally spring. However, a slight cooling was in December and February, intermediated by January's warming which would cause early break of the overwintering and the subsequent damages. Also, an almost recent abrupt change (of about 1°C to 3°C) was recorded except for winter, whose frost and cold disappearance would be partially caused by drought.

Transport of nitrogen oxides through the winter mesopause in HAMMONIA

AbstractWe analyze the importance of individual transport processes for the winter polar downward transport of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from the thermosphere to the mesosphere. The downward transport of NOx produced by energetic particle precipitation induces chemical alterations in the middle atmosphere and influences ozone chemistry. However, it remains unclear how much each transport process contributes to the downward transport. We use simulations of the atmospheric general circulation and chemistry model HAMMONIA (Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere) for the extended winter 2008/2009 with a passive tracer. The model enables us to separate the contributions of advection, eddy and molecular diffusion on the total transport by switching off processes. The results show that molecular diffusion and resolved vertical mixing due to advection effectively transport NOx to the mesosphere. While the impact of molecular diffusion on the transport rapidly decreases below 0.001 hPa, the impact of advection increases. Around the central date of the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2009, advection is strongly enhanced in the thermosphere and mesosphere and the downward transport through the mesopause region is almost entirely driven by advection. Eddy diffusion has limited impact on the transport in the upper mesosphere and negligible impact on the transport in the thermosphere. If eddy diffusion is enhanced as suggested by observations, it can potentially have a larger impact on transport through the mesopause than was previously assumed.

Study of the Influence of the Stratospheric Warming in January, 2013 on the Vertical Structure of Ozone and Temperature in the Middle Atmosphere over Tomsk Using Microwave and Lidar Diagnostics

The study of response of the middle atmosphere (stratosphere and mesosphere) to any external impact (variations of sunlight, flux of cosmic ray particles, eruptions of volcanoes, and anthropogenesis factors) is an urgent physical problem. Ozone and temperature are important atmospheric parameters. The correlation of these parameters is of significant interest from the viewpoint of thermal balance of the middle atmosphere. The basic heating of the stratosphere (altitude range of 20-50 km) is caused by absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation by ozone molecules. Thermal changes influence the rate of ozone formation and destruction. Other types of wave processes can redistribute the structures of vertical profiles of ozone and temperature in the middle atmosphere. Sudden stratospheric warming affects a lot of widely known atmospheric wave processes. Microwave radiometry and Rayleigh lidar allow investigation of ozone and temperature variations during largescale wave disturbances in the middle atmosphere, such as, for example, stratospheric warming [1-3].

Climate Change and Fluctuations in the Karelian-Kola Region

In this work we consider the regularities of changes of climate and assessed the potential impact of these changes on some of the characteristics of the hydrological regime and biota water bodies of the North of the European territory of Russia from temperate latitudes to the Arctic. Within the annual course, variation of monthly air temperature values is irregular for different seasons, with most intensive warming in January and March. In summer, variations in air temperature are multidirectional. Variations in the thermal regime led, in its turn, to later ice cover formation and earlier ice-breakup resulted in the longer ice-free period. Data analysis revealed variations in the course of precipitation of warm and cold periods. Under distinguished increase of precipitation sums, a total number of days with precipitation was revealed to be equal to or lower than its climatic norm. The total precipitation amount increase occurred due to increasing frequency of rainfalls of 10 mm and more. In winter, the snow cover height exceeded the climatic norm. As the increase of annual sums of precipitation is compensated by a rise of evapotranspiration, any trend in the total river inflow into Lake Onego is absent.

Long‐term observations of the quasi two‐day wave by Hawaii MF radar

AbstractA mesospheric horizontal wind data set measured during 1991–2006 by the medium frequency (MF) radar at Kauai, Hawaii (22°N, 160°W) is analyzed to examine the long‐term variability of the quasi two‐day wave (QTDW). The QTDW over Hawaii is amplified twice a year, with the January and July events most likely being the representation of zonal wave numbers 3 and 4 modes, respectively. The amplitudes of the January monthly mean QTDW in both meridional and zonal winds and the July monthly mean QTDW in meridional component are nearly in phase with the solar cycle but with the solar maxima leading the QTDW maxima by 1 or 2 years. However, the July monthly mean QTDW in zonal wind is more antiphase with the solar cycle. Enhanced QTDW oscillations are evident in both wind components in January 1998, which is likely related to the strong El Niño event during the winter of 1997/1998. The enhanced gravity wave activity and the increased barotropic/baroclinic/inertial instability related to the strengthened stratosphere summer easterly jet might provide additional forcing to amplify the QTDW. Moreover, the enhanced migrating diurnal tide during warm El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events could also contribute to the abnormally strong QTDW by increasing the refractive index and thus the growth rate of the QTDW. Additional enhancement of the QTDW with a short period of ~43 h is observed during the major sudden stratospheric warming in January 2006.

Kinetic and available potential energy transport during the stratospheric sudden warming in January 2009

The local features of transient kinetic energy and available potential energy were investigated using ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Interim Reanalysis data for the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event of January 2009. The Western Europe high plays important roles in the propagation of the energy from North America to Eurasian. When the Western Europe high appeared and shifted eastward, energy conversions increased and energy propagated from North America to Eurasian as a form of interaction energy flow. The baroclinic conversion between transient-eddy kinetic energy (Ke) and transient-eddy available potential energy (Ae) and the horizontal advection of geopotential height were approximately one order of magnitude less than Ke and Ae generation terms. So, these terms were less important to this SSW event.

Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

Abstract. The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA); a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX); a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and support vector regression (SVR). These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.