To realize the estimation of rainfall retention capacity for small reservoirs considering spatial soil moisture, a rainfall retention capacity model and its parameter schemes have been developed in this study. An iterative trial solution method considering potential rainfall and soil moisture for the model constructed was proposed for efficient computation. The rainfall retention capacity of 32 pilot small reservoirs located in ungauged basins of Hunan province was calculated starting from 21 August 2023. In addition, a continuous calculation was carried out from 1 August to 30 September 2023 using the proposed method for Heping reservoir. The results show that the Pearson’s correlation coefficients between rainfall retention capacity and available reservoir capacity and soil moisture, are 0.36 and −0.64, respectively. Using Heping reservoir as an example, this study effectively characterized the dynamic change in its rainfall retention capacity, which ranged from 123.6 mm to 68 mm in August 2023. The analysis indicates the rainfall retention capacity of the pilot small reservoirs calculated is reasonably related to the soil moisture, supporting risk visualization for small reservoirs within rain-affected regions. Furthermore, the impact of the antecedent precipitation on rainfall retention capacity can also be dynamically quantified in real time, which provides reference for the continuous management of small reservoirs.