Italian COVID-19 Research Articles

Modeling the COVID-19 Transmission in Italy: The Roles of Asymptomatic Cases, Social Distancing, and Lockdowns

The SEIR model of COVID-19 is developed to investigate the roles of physical distancing, lockdowns and asymptomatic cases in Italy. In doing so, two types of policies including behavioral measures and lockdown measures are embedded in the model. Compared with existing models, the model successfully reproduces similar multiple observed outputs such as infected and recovered patients in Italy by July 2020. This study concludes that the first policy is important once the number of infected cases is relatively low. However, once the number of infected cases is very high so the society cannot identify infected and disinfected people, the second policy must be applied soon. It is thus this study suggests that relaxed lockdowns lead to the second wave of the COVID-19 around the world. It is hoped that the model can enhance our understanding on the roles of behavioral measures, lockdowns, and undocumented cases, so-called asymptomatic cases, on the COVID-19 flow.

The Italian COVID-19 Psychological Research Consortium (IT C19PRC): General Overview and Replication of the UK Study.

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major stressor for the psychological health of people worldwide. In the UK, the COVID19-Psychological Research Consortium Study (C19PRC) launched to evaluate the psychological impact of COVID-19 in the general population and its implications. The project was then extended to Italy and several other countries. This article provides an overview of the Italian C19PRC study and its replication of two specific findings from the UK C19PRC. In the first part, the relationship between anxiety and somatic symptomatology is examined. In the second part, we analyze the association between several factors and psychological health outcomes: depression/anxiety, traumatic stress, COVID-19 anxiety. In line with the study conducted in the UK, an online survey was administered to the adult Italian general population. The sample included 1038 respondents (age, mean = 49.94, SD = 16.14, 51.15% females) taken from four regions: Lombardia, Veneto, Lazio, and Campania. The relationship between predictors and outcomes was evaluated by means of logistic regression models. Somatic indices showed a positive association with anxiety, worse somatic symptoms were associated with mourning a loss of a beloved one due to COVID-19 and with precarious health conditions. Females showed a higher incidence of psychological issues. No differences in anxiety, depression, and traumatic stress were found across regions but the Campania region showed the most severe somatic symptomatology. In the second analysis, the factors associated with more severe psychological outcomes (i.e., anxiety and/or depression, traumatic stress, and COVID-19 related anxiety) were younger age, the presence of minors in the household, traumatic stressors, and precarious health conditions. No differences across regions emerged. The Italian results correspond to the UK findings for anxiety, depression, and traumatic stress. Both in the UK and Italy, the factors associated with worse psychological health were gender (female), younger age, having children, pre-existing health issues (both for oneself or someone close), and the moderate/high perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 within one month. In Italy, unlike the UK, lower household income and having (had) COVID-19 were not associated with poorer mental health. The psychological impact of COVID-19 can last for months; future research should explore all aspects of the psychological burden of COVID-19 in order to implement psychological interventions and promote psychological health.

Reliance on scientists and experts during an epidemic: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy.

Research suggests trust in experts and authorities are important correlates of compliance with public health measures during infectious disease outbreaks. Empirical evidence on the dynamics of reliance on scientists and public health authorities during the early phases of an epidemic outbreak is limited. We examine these processes during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy by leveraging data from Twitter and two online surveys, including a survey experiment. We find that reliance on experts followed a curvilinear path. Both Twitter and survey data showed initial increases in information-seeking from expert sources in the three weeks after the detection of the first case. Consistent with these increases, knowledge about health information linked to COVID-19 and support for containment measures was widespread, and better knowledge was associated with stronger support for containment policies. Both knowledge and containment support were positively associated with trust in science and public health authorities. However, in the third week after the outbreak, we detected a slowdown in responsiveness to experts. These processes were corroborated with a survey experiment, which showed that those holding incorrect beliefs about COVID-19 gave no greater – or even lower – importance to information when its source was stated as coming from experts than when the source was unstated. Our results suggest weakened trust in public health authorities with prolonged exposure to the epidemic as a potential mechanism for this effect. Weakened responsiveness to expert sources may increase susceptibility to misinformation and our results call for efforts to sustain trust in adapting public health response.

Range of reproduction number estimates for COVID-19 spread

To monitor local and global COVID-19 outbreaks, and to plan containment measures, accessible and comprehensible decision-making tools need to be based on the growth rates of new confirmed infections, hospitalization or case fatality rates. Growth rates of new cases form the empirical basis for estimates of a variety of reproduction numbers, dimensionless numbers whose value, when larger than unity, describes surging infections and generally worsening epidemiological conditions. Typically, these determinations rely on noisy or incomplete data gained over limited periods of time, and on many parameters to estimate. This paper examines how estimates from data and models of time-evolving reproduction numbers of national COVID-19 infection spread change by using different techniques and assumptions. Given the importance acquired by reproduction numbers as diagnostic tools, assessing their range of possible variations obtainable from the same epidemiological data is relevant. We compute control reproduction numbers from Swiss and Italian COVID-19 time series adopting both data convolution (renewal equation) and a SEIR-type model. Within these two paradigms we run a comparative analysis of the possible inferences obtained through approximations of the distributions typically used to describe serial intervals, generation, latency and incubation times, and the delays between onset of symptoms and notification. Our results suggest that estimates of reproduction numbers under these different assumptions may show significant temporal differences, while the actual variability range of computed values is rather small.

Trust and Civic Engagement in the Italian COVID-19 Lockdown

The paper presents considerations on the possible consequences associated with the lockdown condition that ensued on the coronavirus pandemic. On the one hand, the infection brought about a notable intensification of primary relationships, in particular within the family and the domestic space in general, while, on the other hand and especially at the start, it generated strong symbolic integration, shown for example by events such as flashmobs and other forms of the grassroot involvement of individuals. Through empirical research data, we will attempt to understand to what extent the cultural climate prevalent in Italy through March and April influenced the attitudes of the Italians in terms of general interpersonal trust or trust in the institutions, as well as in terms of culture and civic engagement. For this purpose, the paper uses data taken from two empirical research on a sample of about 1,000 cases among the Italian population. It will be compared the evidence resulting from a first survey realized at the end of 2017 and the data collected in a second survey carried out on a sample of the same size (that presents a panel quota of 700 cases) ending on April 30 2020, i.e., at the end of the lockdown period. The variables to be analysed are relative to general interpersonal trust, trust in the institutions and civic engagement activities. Such items will function as dependent variables and will be analysed in a diachronic perspective comparing the two panel samples. Furthermore, they will be observed in relation to their distribution throughout Italy, to the age of the interviewees and to their civil status, in an attempt to discover any connection between family life and the attitude towards civil society, keeping in mind the dynamics triggered in everyday life by the pandemic.

A statistical theory of the strength of epidemics: an application to the Italian COVID-19 case.

The proposed theory defines a relative index of epidemic lethality that compares any two configurations in different observation periods, preferably one in the acute and the other in a mild epidemic phase. Raw mortality data represent the input, with no need to recognize the cause of death. Data are categorized according to the victims’ age, which must be renormalized because older people have a greater probability of developing a level of physical decay (human damage), favouring critical pathologies and co-morbidities. The probabilistic dependence of human damage on renormalized age is related to a death criterion considering a virus spread by contagion and our capacity to cure the disease. Remarkably, this is reminiscent of the Weibull theory of the strength of brittle structures containing a population of crack-like defects, in the correlation between the statistical distribution of cracks and the risk of fracture at a prescribed stress level. Age-of-death scaling laws are predicted in accordance with data collected in Italian regions and provinces during the first wave of COVID-19, taken as representative examples to validate the theory. For the prevention of spread and the management of the epidemic, the various parameters of the theory shall be informed on other existing epidemiological models.

Predictive risk factors for post-traumatic stress symptoms among nurses during the Italian acute COVID-19 outbreak

BackgroundThe aim of the study was to investigate the posttraumatic stress disorder risk in nurses, detecting the relation-ship between distress experience and personality dimensions in the Italian acute COVID-19 outbreak. The study is an observational study conducted in March 2020.Participants and procedureMental screening was carried out in the Laboratory of Clinical Psychology on N = 36 nurses in the age range 22-64 years (M = 37.30, SD = 12.60). 76.3% were working in nursing care with confirmed COVID-19 patients; 47.4% of nurses worked in a high COVID-19 rate environment, whereas 52.6% worked in a low COVID-19 rate environment.ResultsThe results confirm relation between anxiety and peritraumatic dissociation and posttraumatic stress; also anx-iety is positively correlated with the agreeableness variable. Our finding was obtained in an acute Italian COVID-19 outbreak and measured and quantified the psychological response of nurses in terms of anxiety as an early reaction for emotional distress and high risk for posttraumatic stress disorders; the personality dimen-sions did not mediate the emotional distress or the probable risk for posttraumatic stress disorder. Nurses ap-peared to be exposed to mental distress and needed help.ConclusionsThe results evidenced the need to carry out a mental health program for health workers (especially nursing professionals).

Intensive and pharmacological care in times of COVID-19: A \u201cspecial ethics\u201d for emergency?

BackgroundThe Authors have laid out an analysis of Italian COVID-19 confirmed data and fatality rates, pointing out how a dearth of health care resources in northern regions has resulted in hard, ethically challenging decisions in terms of granting patient access to intensive care units (ICU).Main textHaving to make such decisions certainly entails substantial difficulties, and that has led many health care professional to seek ethical guidance. The Italian Society of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SIAARTI) has attempted to meet that growing need by a set of recommendations, applying “clinical soundness” as a beacon standard; that approach tends to prioritize patients with higher life expectancy, which could be characterized as a “moderately utilitarian” approach. Yet, such a selection has engendered daunting ethical quandaries. The authors believe it can only be warranted and acceptable if rooted in a transparent decision-making process and verifiable, reviewed criteria. Moreover, the authors have stressed how clinical experimentation in a pandemic setting is a subtext of great interest from an ethical perspective. In Italy, no drug therapy and trials were undertaken for COVID-19 patients for a rather long period of time. When the epidemic was already circulating, an intervention proved necessary on the system of administrative procedures, aimed at expediting the authorization and validation of protocols, then bogged down by bureaucracy. A new system has since been instituted by a government decree that was signed about one month after the first Covid-19 case was officially recorded in the country. Such a swift implementation, which took just a few weeks, is noteworthy and proves that clinical trials can be initiated in a timely fashion, even with a pandemic unfolding. The concerted, action of supportive care and RCTs is the only way to attain effective forms of treatments for COVID-19 and any other future outbreak.ConclusionsThe authors have arrived at the conclusion that the most effective and ethically sound response on the part of any national health care system would be to adequately reconfigure its organizational mechanisms, by making clinical trials and all related administrative procedures consistent with the current state of emergency.

Determinants of healing among patients with coronavirus disease 2019: the results of the SARS-RAS study of the Italian Society of Hypertension.

The burst of COVID-19 epidemics in Italy prompted the Italian Society of Hypertension to start an observational study to explore the characteristics of the hospitalized victims of the disease. The current analysis aimed to investigate the predictors of healing among Italian COVID-19 patients. We also assessed the effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers on the outcome. We designed a cross-sectional, observational, multicenter, nationwide survey in Italy to explore the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection. We analyzed information from 2446 charts of Italian patients admitted for certified COVID-19 in 27 hospitals. Healing from COVID-19 infection, defined as two consecutive negative swabs, was reported in 544 patients (22.2%), 95% of them were hospitalized. Age and Charlson Comorbidity Index were significantly lower in healing compared with nonhealing patients (63 ± 15 vs. 69 ± 15 and 2 ± 2 vs. 3 ± 2, both P < 0.05). In multivariable regression model, predictors of healing were younger age (OR: 0.99; 95% CI 0.98-0.99, P = 0.0001), absence of chronic kidney disease (OR: 0.35; 95% CI 0.17-0.70, P = 0.003) or heart failure (OR: 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70, P = 0.001). In the subgroup of patients suffering from hypertension and/or heart failure (n = 1498), no differences were observed in the use of ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. Our study demonstrated that younger age and absence of comorbidities play a major role in determining healing in patients with COVID-19. No effects of ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers on the outcome was reported.

Facial palsy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ObjectiveTo compare the incidence and clinical features of individuals presenting in emergency rooms (ER) with facial palsy during the Italian COVID‐19 outbreak and in the same period of 2019.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the medical records for all accesses to the six ER in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, during the first phase of the COVID‐19 pandemic (27 February‐3 May 2020) to identify all cases of diagnosed facial palsy. Clinical information was retrieved for each patient and compared with that of facial palsy cases presenting in 2019.ResultBetween 27 February and 3 May 2020, 38 patients presented to provincial ERs for facial palsy; in 2019, there were 22 cases, for an incidence rate ratio of 1.73 (95% CI 1.02–2.92) for the 2020 cohort. Of the 2020 cohort, eight patients (21%) presented with active or recent symptoms consistent with COVID‐19 infection, compared with 2 (9%) in 2019 (p = .299); one was tested and resulted positive for SARS‐CoV‐2. Moreover, patients were younger (−11 years, p = .037) than those of the previous year and manifested a longer lag (+1.1 days, p = .001) between symptoms onset and ER presentation.ConclusionWe observed a higher occurrence of facial palsy during the COVID‐19 outbreak compared to the same period of the previous year; 21% of patients presenting with facial palsy had active or recent symptoms consistent with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, suggesting an excess risk of facial palsy during or after COVID‐19. These patients searched for medical attention later, probably because of the fear of contracting COVID‐19 during assistance.

Back to (new) normality-A CODRAL/AIRO-L survey on cancer radiotherapy in Lombardy during Italian COVID-19 phase 2.

BackgroundItaly experienced one of the world’s severest COVID-19 outbreak, with Lombardy being the most afflicted region. However, the imposed safety measures allowed to flatten the epidemic curve and hence to ease the restrictions and inaugurate, on the 4th of May 2020, the Italian phase (P) 2 of the pandemic. The present survey study, endorsed by CODRAL and AIRO-L, aimed to assess how radiotherapy (RT) departments in Lombardy have dealt with the recovery.Materials and methodsA questionnaire dealing with the management of pandemic was developed online and sent to all CODRAL Directors on the 10th of June 2020. Answers were collected in full anonymity one week after.ResultsAll the 33 contacted RT facilities (100%) responded to the survey. Despite the scale of the pandemic, during P1 14 (42.4%) centres managed to safely continue the activity (≤ 10% reduction). During P2, 10 (30.3%) centres fully recovered and 14 (42.4%) reported an increase. Nonetheless, 6 (18.2%) declared no changes and, interestingly, 3 (9.1%) reduced activities. Overall, 21 centres (63.6%) reported suspected or positive cases within healthcare workforce since the beginning of the pandemic. Staff units were quarantined in 19 (57.6%) and 6 (18.2%) centres throughout P1 and P2, respectively. In the two phases, about two thirds centres registered positive or suspected cases amongst patients.ConclusionThe study revealed a particular attention to anti-contagion measures and a return to normal or even higher clinical workload in most RT centres in Lombardy, necessary to carry out current and previously deferred treatments.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s12032-020-01434-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Role of time-normalized laboratory findings in predicting COVID-19 outcome.

Objectives The pandemic COVID-19 currently reached 213 countries worldwide with nearly 9 million infected people and more than 460,000 deaths. Although several Chinese studies, describing the laboratory findings characteristics of this illness have been reported, European data are still scarce. Furthermore, previous studies often analyzed the averaged laboratory findings collected during the entire hospitalization period, whereas monitoring their time-dependent variations should give more reliable prognostic information. Methods We analyzed the time-dependent variations of 14 laboratory parameters in two groups of COVID-19 patients with, respectively, a positive (40 patients) or a poor (42 patients) outcome, admitted to the San Raffaele Hospital (Milan, Italy). We focused mainly on laboratory parameters that are routinely tested, thus, prognostic information would be readily available even in low-resource settings. Results Statistically significant differences between the two groups were observed for most of the laboratory findings analyzed. We showed that some parameters can be considered as early prognostic indicators whereas others exhibit statistically significant differences only at a later stage of the disease. Among them, earliest indicators were: platelets, lymphocytes, lactate dehydrogenase, creatinine, alanine aminotransferase, C-reactive protein, white blood cells and neutrophils. Conclusions This longitudinal study represents, to the best of our knowledge, the first study describing the laboratory characteristics of Italian COVID-19 patients on a normalized time-scale. The time-dependent prognostic value of the laboratory parameters analyzed in this study can be used by clinicians for the effective treatment of the patients and for the proper management of intensive care beds, which becomes a critical issue during the pandemic peaks.

Parkinson's Disease Remote Patient Monitoring During the COVID-19 Lockdown.

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of a smartphone remote patient monitoring approach in a real-life Parkinson's disease (PD) cohort during the Italian COVID-19 lockdown.Methods: Fifty-four non-demented PD patients who were supposed to attend the outpatient March clinic were recruited for a prospective study. All patients had a known UPDRS-III and a modified Hoehn and Yahr (H&Y) score and were provided with a smartphone application capable of providing indicators of gait, tapping, tremor, memory and executive functions. Different questionnaires exploring non-motor symptoms and quality of life were administered through phone-calls. Patients were asked to run the app at least twice per week (i.e., full compliance). Subjects were phone-checked weekly throughout a 3-week period for compliance and final satisfaction questionnaires.Results: Forty-five patients (83.3%) ran the app at least once; Twenty-nine (53.7%) subjects were half-compliant, while 16 (29.6%) were fully compliant. Adherence was hindered by technical issues or digital illiteracy (38.7%), demotivation (24%) and health-related issues (7.4%). Ten patients (18.5%) underwent PD therapy changes. The main factors related to lack of compliance included loss of interest, sadness, anxiety, the absence of a caregiver, the presence of falls and higher H&Y. Gait, tapping, tremor and cognitive application outcomes were correlated to disease duration, UPDRS-III and H&Y.Discussion: The majority of patients were compliant and satisfied by the provided monitoring program. Some of the application outcomes were statistically correlated to clinical parameters, but further validation is required. Our pilot study suggested that the available technologies could be readily implemented even with the current population's technical and intellectual resources.

How the COVID-19 Wave Changed Emergency Urology: Results From an Academic Tertiary Referral Hospital in the Epicentre of the Italian Red Zone

ObjectiveTo quantify and characterize the burden of urological patients admitted to emergency department (ED) in Lombardy during Italian COVID-19 outbreak, comparing it to a reference population from 2019. MethodsWe retrospectively analysed all consecutive admissions to ED from 1 January to 9 April in both 2019 and 2020. According to the ED discharge ICD-9-CM code, patients were grouped in urological and respiratory patients. We evaluated the type of access (self-presented/ambulance), discharge priority code, ED discharge (hospitalization, home), need for urological consultation or urgent surgery. ResultsThe number of urological diagnoses in ED was inversely associated to COVID-19 diagnoses (95% confidence interval −0.41/−0.19; Beta = −0.8; P < .0001). The average access per day was significantly lower after 10 March 2020 (1.5 ± 1.1 vs 6.5 ± 2.6; P < .0001), compared to reference period. From 11 March 2020, the inappropriate admissions to ED were reduced (10/45 vs 96/195; P = .001). Consequently, the patients admitted were generally more demanding, requiring a higher rate of urgent surgeries (4/45 vs 4/195; P = .02). This reflected in an increase of the hospitalization rate from 12.7% to 17.8% (Beta = 0.88; P < .0001) during 2020. ConclusionUrological admissions to ED during lockdown differed from the same period of 2019 both qualitatively and quantitatively. The spectrum of patients seems to be relatively more critical, often requiring an urgent management. These patients may represent a challenge due to the difficult circumstances caused by the pandemic.

Risk Perceptions and Psychological Effects During the Italian COVID-19 Emergency.

The current study provides data about the immediate risk perceptions and psychological effects of the COVID-19 pandemic among Italian participants. A sample of 980 volunteers answered a web-based survey which aimed to investigate the many facets of risk perceptions connected to COVID-19 (health, work, institutional-economy, interpersonal and psychological), and risk-related variables such as perceived knowledge, news seeking, perceived control, perceived efficacy of containment measures, and affective states. Socio-demographic characteristics were also collected. Results showed that although levels of general concern are relatively high among Italians, risk perceptions are highest with regards to the institutional-economy and work, and lowest concerning health. COVID-19 has been also estimated to be the least likely cause of death. Cognitive and affective risk-related variables contributed to explain the several risk perception domains differently. COVID-19 perceived knowledge did not affect any risk perception while the perceived control decreased health risk likelihood. The other risk-related variables amplified risk perceptions: News seeking increased work and institutional-economy risk; perceived efficacy of containment measures increased almost all perceived risks; negative affective states of fear, anger and sadness increased health risk; anxiety increased health, interpersonal and psychological risks, and uncertainty increased work, institutional-economy, interpersonal and psychological risk perceptions. Finally, positive affective states increased health risk perception. Socio-psychological implications are discussed.

Neurological symptoms in acute COVID-19 infected patients: A survey among Italian physicians.

BackgroundCOVID-19 is a pandemic disease and questions rise about the coronavirus 2 (Sars-CoV-2) effect on nervous system. This involvement could help explaining the pathogenesis of this condition and lead to novel therapeutic approaches.ObjectiveTo assess the occurrence of neurological symptoms in COVID-19 patients during the Italian pandemic outbreak, as reported by physicians.Materials and methodsIn the early days of pandemic emergence we developed an online survey open to all Italian clinicians involved in the diagnosis and management of COVID-19 patients. The survey was structured in three sections, with nine different items concerning the presence of different specific clinical abnormalities. Each item was graded from “absent” to “severe” in a 4-point Likert’s scale.Main outcomes and measuresLikert’s scale data were analyzed by studying the distribution of responses by using medians and bar charts-relative frequencies. Also, in order to analyze differences in symptoms findings depending on the group of specialty, Likert’s scale data were combined into two nominal categories (“absent”/“low” and “moderate”/”high”/”) and a contingency table chi-square test was used.Results126 physicians of 9 different medical specialties, from 10 regions of Italy, filled the online survey. The results show that 87.3% of practitioners reported neurological symptoms. In most cases these were mild and non-specific, but they were severe in a minority of patients. The most common symptoms observed were headache, myalgia and taste and smell abnormalities. Whilst there was no difference between neurologists and non-neurologists, we found that experienced clinicians (defined as clinicians that evaluated more than 30 patients) reported neurological symptoms more frequently than non-expert.ConclusionsNeurological symptoms have frequently been ported during the Italian COVID-19 pandemic, and thus should be monitored for all affected patients. Whilst some of the disturbances reported may be non-specific and common to other infectious diseases, smell and taste abnormalities might indicate nervous system as entry door for SARS-CoV-2 virus. This interpretation should promote research trials to avoid nervous system involvement.

Brief report - “Every little thing gonna be all right” (at least for me): Dispositional optimists display higher optimistic bias for infection during the Italian COVID-19 outbreak

Dispositional optimism (DO) and optimistic bias (OB) in risk perception are two distinct phenomena and previous studies about their reciprocal relationship report contrasting results. In the present study, we focused on the relationship between DO and OB when reporting the personal and the other persons' risk about COVID-19. We hypothesized that, when facing a largely uncontrollable risky situation (like the recent pandemic), dispositional optimists would defensively increase their OB about the current risks. A convenience sample of 414 Italian participants aged 18 or older were recruited. They completed a questionnaire investigating past protective behaviors, DO, perceived personal and other persons' COVID-19-related risk. Results of the mixed regression model showed that more optimistic people were more likely to underestimate their COVID-19 personal risk over the other's person risk. These results shed light on the relationship between different forms of optimism and provide useful insight about the potential implications of risk communication approaches to face the current pandemic.

Effect of COVID-19 outbreak on emergency department attendances in an Italian academic hospital

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease was discovered during the 2019 outbreak in Mainland China and the first cases were reported in Italy on February 21, 2020. This study evaluates the emergency department (ED) attendances of an academic hospital in northern Italy before and after media reported the news of the first infected patients in Italy.MethodsAdult attendances in ED in February 2020 were analysed dividing the period into 4 weeks (days 1-7, 8-14, 15-21, 22-28) compared with the same periods in 2019. The visits were analysed separately according to the Italian colour code of triage: white (non-critical), green (low-critical), yellow (medium critical), red (life-threatening). The mean weekly number of attendances was compared with t-test.ResultsFebruary 2020 total ED attendances compared with February 2019 were 4865 vs 5029 (-3.3%), of which white codes were 834 vs 762 (+9.4%), green 2450 vs 2580 (-5.0%), yellow 1427 vs 1536 (-7.1%), red 154 vs 151 (+2.0%). February 2020 weekly mean ED attendances compared with February 2019 had statistically significant difference only in the fourth week (days 22-28) for green codes (75 vs 92, p = 0.007) and yellow codes (41 vs 52, p = 0.047), not for white (27 vs 26, p = 0.760) and red codes (5 vs 5, p = 0.817). The first three weeks of February 2020 compared with 2019 showed no statistically significant difference in weekly mean ED attendances.ConclusionsThere was a significant reduction of green and yellow codes attendances at ED in the fourth week of February 2020, corresponding to the initial phase of Italian COVID-19 outbreak. The fear of contracting SARS-CoV-2 by attending the ED probably acted as a significant deterrent in visits, especially for low and medium critical patients. Additional data are required to better understand the phenomenon, including the behaviour of non-critical attendances.Key messages A reduction of green and yellow codes attendances was reported during initial phase of COVID-19 outbreak in an Italian academic hospital.Fear of contracting COVID-19 infection in a hospital setting could impact on emergency department attendances.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA contamination on surfaces of a COVID-19 ward in a hospital of Northern Italy: what risk of transmission?

SARS-CoV-2 can reportedly exist on inanimate surfaces for a long duration, but there is limited data available from Italian COVID-19 hospital wards, especially for non-intensive care units hosting patients that do not require mechanical ventilation. Identification of the extent of environmental contamination can help in understanding possible virus transmission routes, limit hospital infections and protect healthcare workers. Thus, we investigated virus contamination on surfaces of the acute COVID-19 ward of an Italian hospital. Ward surfaces, including four points inside and six points outside the patients' rooms were sampled by swabs, seven hours after routine sanitation. To minimize the risk of underestimation of virus detection, two different sensitive molecular methods were used comparatively, and specific internal controls were added to enhance the efficiency of all the analysis steps. SARS-CoV-2 contamination was detected in only three out of all the collected samples, i.e., on two floors and one-bathroom sink, likely reflecting aerosol and saliva contamination, respectively. The overall level of contamination was low, and the floors exhibited a very low level of SARS-CoV-2 presence, evidenced by only one of the two methods used. The existence of SARS-CoV-2 on hospital surfaces may be limited, although it was reported to persist for a longer duration on surfaces under controlled laboratory conditions. Thus, effective transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by surfaces/fomites within the hospital ward may be a rare event. However, the results highlight the importance of assessing method sensitivity and including controls when investigating low-level virus contamination so as to avoid the risk of underestimation of virus presence.

The challenges of the outbreak: the Italian COVID-19 integrated surveillance system

BackgroundIn Italy, the National surveillance of all SARS-CoV-2 laboratory-confirmed cases was established on 27 February 2020, building on a previously existing laboratory network focused on suspected and confirmed COVID-19 severe respiratory infections.MethodsThe integrated epidemiological and microbiological surveillance systematically collects and analyzes information on all SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases. Regional reference laboratories analyze samples, inform Local Health Authorities of the results and coordinate data flow between cases, hospitals and GPs. Regions provide data through a web interface connected to a dedicated IT platform or by sending a dataset. The Infectious Diseases Department at Istituto Superiore di Sanità processes and analyzes data, producing reports on a daily and weekly basis, as well as indicator analyses based on the monitoring of “phase 2” (post-lockdown). Moreover, mathematical models are constructed daily on these data.ResultsSince the beginning of the epidemic, the surveillance system recorded 238.901 COVID-19 cases and 33.369 deaths on 19-6. Main challenges were the coordination of different actors, hampered by the decentralization of health to the Regions, and data interpretation due to the delay in the detection of cases and deaths. Besides the COVID-19 surveillance, we planned ad hoc studies and periodic surveys: health care workers, long term care facilities, clusters and red zones, health system resilience monitoring.ConclusionsCOVID-19 surveillance is an essential tool to inform the public about the epidemic trend and provide support to public health response. We urge upon all relevant stakeholders a reflection on important issues such as defining ethical boundaries for data scavenging during emergencies, how existing laws on data protection could affect record linkage among different existing datasets to assess diseases and other variables for correlation, or which ethical approaches on open data would apply to our setting.Key messages A strong and adequately funded public health system in place allows an efficient response in times of epidemics both in terms of data collection and public health response, policy and decisions.COVID-19 epidemic showed us all the limits of a regionalized health system which was not entirely coordinated between periphery and central institutions.