Italian Climate Research Articles

Short‐term and long‐term climate mitigation policy in Italy

AbstractThis article briefly discusses climate mitigation policy in Italy. It first reviews the recent policy action and then assesses the challenges ahead. It shows that emissions in 2012 will be below the Kyoto target only if the carbon intensity of the economies continues to decline at the pre‐crisis rate. Even in this favorable case, the use of Kyoto mechanisms will likely be necessary to compensate for the high emissions of 2008. This article then examines the implications of reducing emissions in 2050 by 80% with respect to the present level, as proposed by Major Economies Leaders during the 2009 G8 meeting. In particular, the article focuses on the transformations needed in the power sector. Scenarios developed using the integrated assessment model World Induced Hybrid Technical Change (WITCH) and an analysis of historical data show that (1) electricity in 2050 must come with zero (or possibly negative) emissions, and therefore, absent nuclear power and (2) carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) must play a major role in future power supply, even with a massive development of wind and photovoltaic. The article then proposes five pillars on which a sensible, long‐term, ambitious Italian climate mitigation policy should rest. WIREs Clim Change 2012, 3:171–183. doi: 10.1002/wcc.159This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > National Climate Change Policy

Different methods for the modelling of thermal bridges into energy simulation programs: Comparisons of accuracy for flat heterogeneous roofs in Italian climates

Thermal bridges are weak areas of the building envelope, determining heat flows higher than those characterizing the common dispersing surfaces (i.e., walls without discontinuities). This phenomenon induces uncontrolled thermal losses and hygiene problems, connected to the possible vapor condensation and mold growth.Presently, the numerical codes for the energy audits, as, for instance, EnergyPlus, carry out zero-dimensional (indoor air) and one-dimensional (conduction heat transfer) analyses, approximately estimating the thermal bridge effects on the seasonal heating demand of buildings.In this paper, results obtained by means of the simplified 1-D models are compared to those obtained by more sophisticated models 2-D or 3-D, in order to point out differences in terms of equivalent conductivity and thermal transmittance. Then, dynamic simulations compare the outcomes in terms of seasonal energy consumption.A typical office building has been considered, analyzing – according to three different approaches – the thermal bridge represented by the roof structure. The outcomes, with reference to several Italian climates, show that a proper modelling is necessary. In particular, an over estimation of the heat losses, determined by an approximate evaluation, induces higher cost of refurbishing, higher cooling energy requests in summer, minor thermal comfort in naturally ventilated buildings.

Office Buildings Cooling Need in the Italian Climatic Context: Assessing the Performances of Typical Envelopes

This study assesses the cooling thermal energy need of office buildings that can represent typical cases within the Italian context, in particular defined by the envelope solutions that belong to three main construction ages, including new solutions that meet the current requirements for the envelope thermal properties.The results show that the large-glazed and lighter solutions (also newly built, consistent with the recent standards) reveal the worst behavior, while the buildings characterized by the lowest needs are the old conventional ones, even though they do not comply with the recent requirements for the envelope components. The same cooling performances are achieved by newly built insulated envelopes if they are “conventionally-glazed”, but only when a strategy to loose the heat stored by the massive internal surfaces is adopted.

Short term climate variability during “Roman Classical Period” in the eastern Mediterranean

To obtain insight into character and potential forcing of short-term climatic and oceanographic variability in the southern Italian region during the “Roman Classical Period” (60 BC–AD 200), climatic and environmental reconstructions based on a dinoflagelate cyst record from a well dated site in the Gulf of Taranto located at the distal end of the Po-river discharge plume have been established with high temporal resolution. Short-term fluctuations in accumulation rates of the Adriatic Surface Water species Lingulodinium machaerophorum, the freshwater algae Concentricystes and species resistant to aerobic degradation indicate that fluctuations in the trophic state of the upper waters are related to river discharge of northern and eastern Italian rivers which in turn are strongly related to precipitation in Italy. The dinoflagellate cyst association indicates that local sea surface temperatures which in this region are strongly linked to local air temperatures were slightly higher than today. We reconstruct that sea surface temperatures have been relatively high and stable between 60 BC–AD 90 and show a decreasing trend after AD 90. Fluctuations in temperature and river discharge rates have a strong cyclic character with main cyclicities of 7–8 and 11 years. We argue that these cycles are related to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation climate mode. A strong correlation is observed with global variation in Δ 14C anomalies suggesting that solar variability might be one of the major forcings of the regional climate. Apart from cyclic climate variability we observed a good correlation between non-cyclic temperature drops and global volcanic activity indicating that the latter forms an additional major forcing factor of the southern Italian climate during the Roman Classical Period.

ANALYSIS OF AEROSOL SIZE DISTRIBUTION DURING SAHARAN DUST EVENTS AT MT. CIMONE (ITALY)

Background and Aims: There is a growing concern about the health effects of Saharan dust outbreaks but exposure characterization needs to be largely improved both from a physical and chemical point of view. In this work, we investigated the typical aerosol size distribution observed during Saharan dust outbreaks over Northern Italy. Methods: Saharan dust outbreaks over North Italy were identified by analysing the hourly number concentration of coarse aerosol particles (geometric particle diameter, Dp >1 μm) observed at the Italian Climate Observatory “O. Vittori” at Mt. Cimone (2165 m a.s.l., Italian Northern Apennines), a global GAW station representative for a wide area extending over South Europe/Mediterranean basin. Here, the coarse aerosol particle are considered a marker of mineral dust transported. These measurements were carried out using a optical particle counter (model 1.109; Grimm, Ainring, Germany) following the experimental protocol described by Marinoni et al.(2008). In order to clearly deduce the Saharan origin of coarse particle peak events, 3D air mass back-trajectories from Mt. Cimone were calculated using the FLEXTRA model. Following Bonasoni et al. (2004), in order to corroborate the Saharan dust event identification, the classification procedure involves satellite data and transport modelling analyses. Results: We found that Saharan dust outbreaks brought pronounced changes in the aerosol size distribution observed at Mt. Cimone. Conclusions: Our results suggest that Saharan dust outbreaks can influence aerosol concentration from the accumulation to the coarse mode. Further work should be carried out to clarify the relationship between observed mineral dust size distribution, typical atmospheric transport patterns as well as evolution in time and space of the mineral dust plumes along the transport from North Africa to North Italy.

SAHARAN DUST AND CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY IN EMILIA-ROMAGNA (ITALY)

Background and Aims: There is a growing concern about the health effects of Saharan dust outbreaks but evidence is limited. We investigated the association between Saharan dust outbreaks and natural, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Methods: A case-crossover design was adopted to assess the effects of Saharan dust days (SDD) on mortality in the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy. The population under study consisted of residents in the six main towns of the central-western part of the region who died between 2002 and 2006. Saharan events have been identified by using observations carried out at the Italian Climate Observatory at Mt. Cimone (2165 m a.s.l.). Based on previous analysis on particulate size distribution of Saharan air masses we decided to use PM10 data for particulate exposure instead of PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 separately. The association of Saharan dust outbreaks and PM10 concentration with mortality was estimated using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for apparent temperature, holidays, summer population decrease, flu epidemic weeks and heat wave days. The role of the interaction term between PM10 and SDD was analysed to test for effect modification induced by SDD on the PM10-mortality concentration-response function. Separate estimates were undertaken for hot and cold seasons. Results: We found some evidence of increased respiratory mortality for people aged 75 or older on SDD. Respiratory mortality increased by 22.0% (95% CI 4.0% to 43.1%) on the SDD in the whole year model and by 33.9% (8.4% to 65.4%) in the hot season model. Effects substantially attenuated for natural and cardiovascular mortality with ORs of 1.042 (95% CI 0.992 to 1.095) and 1.043 (95% CI 0.969 to 1.122), respectively. Conclusions: Our findings suggest an association between respiratory mortality in the elderly and Saharan dust outbreaks. We found no evidence of an effect modification of dust events on the concentration response relationship between PM10 and daily deaths.

Modelling the statistical dependence of rainfall event variables through copula functions

Abstract. In many hydrological models, such as those derived by analytical probabilistic methods, the precipitation stochastic process is represented by means of individual storm random variables which are supposed to be independent of each other. However, several proposals were advanced to develop joint probability distributions able to account for the observed statistical dependence. The traditional technique of the multivariate statistics is nevertheless affected by several drawbacks, whose most evident issue is the unavoidable subordination of the dependence structure assessment to the marginal distribution fitting. Conversely, the copula approach can overcome this limitation, by dividing the problem in two distinct parts. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit tests were recently made available and a significant improvement in the function selection reliability has been achieved. Herein the dependence structure of the rainfall event volume, the wet weather duration and the interevent time is assessed and verified by test statistics with respect to three long time series recorded in different Italian climates. Paired analyses revealed a non negligible dependence between volume and duration, while the interevent period proved to be substantially independent of the other variables. A unique copula model seems to be suitable for representing this dependence structure, despite the sensitivity demonstrated by its parameter towards the threshold utilized in the procedure for extracting the independent events. The joint probability function was finally developed by adopting a Weibull model for the marginal distributions.

Energy and cost evaluation of thermal bridge correction in Mediterranean climate

In the cold climate of continental Europe the correction of thermal bridges in buildings is a mandatory issue, as in these areas they produce not only heat losses but frequently also condensation and mould growth. In mild Mediterranean climate thermal bridges also cause an increase in energy consumption, but usually do not present condensation effects. In Italy, the current regulations for new buildings only recommend but do not impose the thermal bridge correction, which usually needs extra costs during construction and refurbishment phases. This paper presents a study on the effects of thermal bridges for two building types (terraced houses and semi-detached houses) and three current envelope solutions in Italian climate, which may be considered representative of mild Mediterranean climate. The buildings are characterised by reinforced concrete frameworks and clay block walls; the thermal performance of the envelopes complies with Italian regulations for new constructions. In a first step the impact of thermal bridges on both heating and cooling energy demand is studied; then the economic convenience of correcting such thermal bridges is assessed by calculating the discounted payback period referred to the additional costs of construction and refurbishment.

Distribution of dissolved labile and particulate iron and copper in Terra Nova Bay polynya (Ross Sea, Antarctica) surface waters in relation to nutrients and phytoplankton growth

The distribution of the dissolved labile and of the particulate Fe and Cu together with dissolved oxygen, nutrients, chlorophyll a and total particulate matter was investigated in the surface waters of Terra Nova Bay polynya in mid-January 2003. The measurements were conducted within the framework of the Italian Climatic Long-term Interactions of the Mass balance in Antarctica (CLIMA) Project activities. The labile dissolved fraction was operationally defined by employing the chelating resin Chelex-100, which retains free and loosely bound trace metal species. The dissolved labile Fe ranges from below the detection limit (0.15 nM) to 3.71 nM, while the dissolved labile Cu from below the detection limit (0.10 nM) to 0.90 nM. The lowest concentrations for both metals were observed at 20 m depth (the shallowest depth for which metals were measured). The concentration of the particulate Fe was about 5 times higher than the dissolved Fe concentration, ranging from 0.56 to 24.83 nM with an average of 6.45 nM. The concentration of the particulate Cu ranged from 0.01 to 0.71 nM with an average of 0.17 nM. The values are in agreement with the previous data collected in the same area. We evaluated the role of the Fe and Cu as biolimiting metals. The N:dissolved labile Fe ratios (18,900–130,666) would or would not allow a complete nitrate removal, on the basis of the N:Fe requirement ratios that we calculated considering the N:P and the C:P ratios estimated for diatoms. This finding partially agrees with the Si:N ratio that we found (2.29). Moreover we considered a possible influence of the dissolved labile Cu on the Fe uptake process.

Earth-to-air heat exchangers for Italian climates

The European Energy Efficiency Building Directive 2002/91/CE, as well as other acts and funding programs, strongly promotes the adoption of passive strategies for buildings, in order to achieve indoor thermal comfort conditions above all in summer, so reducing or avoiding the use of air conditioning systems. In this paper, the energy performances achievable using an earth-to-air heat exchanger for an air-conditioned building have been evaluated for both winter and summer. By means of dynamic building energy performance simulation codes, the energy requirements of the systems have been analysed for different Italian climates, as a function of the main boundary conditions (such as the typology of soil, tube material, tube length and depth, velocity of the air crossing the tube, ventilation airflow rates, control modes). The earth-to-air heat exchanger has shown the highest efficiency for cold climates both in winter and summer. The possible coupling of this technology with other passive strategies has been also examined. Then, a technical-economic analysis has been carried out: this technology is economically acceptable (simple payback of 5–9 years) only in the cases of easy and cheap moving earth works; moreover, metallic tubes are not suitable. Finally, considering in summer a not fully air-conditioned building, only provided with diurnal ventilation coupled to an earth-to-air heat exchanger plus night-time ventilation, the possible indoor thermal comfort conditions have been evaluated.

Feasibility of polygeneration in energy supply systems for health-care facilities under the Italian climate and boundary conditions

This article investigates the opportunities of a multi-energy system in a hospital facility under the Italian climate and boundary conditions. One of the benchmarks for tertiary buildings constructed by the U.S. DOE (Department of Energy) to be used in association with the energy simulation software EnergyPlus was taken as a reference hospital. After importing that benchmark under the Italian climatic conditions (in the Turin, Florence and Naples locations) and determining the energy needs for heating energy, cooling energy and electricity, several polygeneration alternatives were presented. The reference configuration of the benchmark case study is based on a one-energy rationale (one energy carrier for each load), while the polygeneration alternatives (cogeneration, trigeneration and renewable) are based on a multi-energy rationale (variable energy carriers used in several converters to cover the same load with the maximum efficiency and reliability). By means of a multi-energy systems modeling framework, the scenarios that are most efficient or profitable were determined. Results show that renewable energy is far from covering the whole energy demand of a hospital, and that – given the actual Italian primary energy weighting factor for electricity, that is the amount of source energy required for the production of one unit of electricity in Italy – trigeneration can be feasible only from an economic point of view, and not from an energy point of view.

Thermoeconomic analysis and optimization of high efficiency solar heating and cooling systems for different Italian school buildings and climates

The paper investigates the energetic and economic feasibility of a solar-assisted heating and cooling system (SHC) for different types of school buildings and Italian climates. The SHC system under investigation is based on the coupling of evacuated solar collectors with a single-stage LiBr–H 2O absorption chiller; auxiliary energy for both heating and cooling is supplied by an electric-driven reversible heat pump. The SHC system was coupled with different types of school buildings located in three different Italian climatic zones. The analysis is carried out by means of a zero-dimensional transient simulation model, developed using the TRNSYS software; the analysis of the dynamic behaviour of the building was also included. An economic model is proposed, in order to assess the operating and capital costs of the systems under analysis. Furthermore, a parametric analysis and a subsequent mixed heuristic-deterministic optimization algorithm was implemented, in order to determine the set of the synthesis/design variables that maximize system profitability. The results are encouraging, as for the potential of energy saving. On the contrary, the SHC economic profitability can be achieved only in case of public funding policies (e.g. feed-in tariffs), as always happens for the great majority of renewable energy systems.

Impact of variations in solar activity on hydrological decadal patterns in northern Italy

Using spectral and statistical analyses of discharges and basin average precipitation rates acquired over the Po River since the early 1800s, we investigate the impact of variations in solar activity on hydrological decadal patterns over northern Italy. Wet and dry periods appear to alternate in accordance with polarized sunspot cycles. Intriguingly, a solar signature on Po River discharges is detected to be highly significant since the late 1800s, before the onset of sunspots hyperactivity established by the middle 1900s. In particular, observed hydrological patterns over northern Italy are significantly correlated, under periods of quiet sunspot activity, with parameters characterizing the Sun's orbital motion, specifically with the time derivative of the solar angular momentum (τ) which is thought to modulate the strength of the solar wind and sunspot dynamics under weak sunspot activity. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is detected as potential link between the Sun and Po River discharges, since it is significantly correlated with both solar activity and the decadal variability in the north Italian climate. In particular, positive (negative) NAO anomalies, which are associated with comparatively lower (higher) Po River discharges, are assessed to alternatively correlate at decadal timescales either with τ or with the Earth's geomagnetic activity (GA), which closely follows sunspot activity. This changing correlation seems to be regulated by the strength of sunspot activity: under periods of quiet sunspot activity, a weakening of the GA‐NAO connection and a reinforcement of the τ‐NAO connection is observed. In this sense, the strength of solar activity apparently modulates the connection between the NAO and Po River discharges.

Ministry Scorches Italian Climate Researchers

Ministry Scorches Italian Climate Researchers

A New Climate Research Center in Italy

The news item about the Italian Climate Research Center that will be located at the University of Lecce in Bologna (“Italy hosts a climate research center,” ScienceScope, 24 Dec. 2004, p. [2171][1]) unfortunately does not tell the whole story. The center was established without significant input from the Italian climate research community. A call for proposals was issued in 2001, and two groups responded. The review process that awarded the center to Lecce was never explained. The Ministry of the Environment simply made an informal announcement that the appropriation would go to the National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology, which will coordinate the center. At the moment, nothing is known about the center's programs, whether it will open to the larger climate research community, or how these programs will be funded. The initial program presented by the director suggests that the Center will be limited to oceanographers and marine ecosystem researchers in the Bologna area. Italy has allowed its National Climate Research Program to languish, and unless significant changes are made in the scope and mission of the Climate Research Center, it will be useless. First, it seems designed to produce a climate model that closely resembles those already developed elsewhere, reminiscent of Wittgenstein's philosophy that it is better to buy several copies of the same newspaper to be nearest the truth. Second, without the involvement of the larger climate academic community, the program will have no impact on higher education in the rest of the country. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.306.5705.2171c

Madness in the Theater of Dario Fo and Franca Rame

This article traces the origins of madness in Dario Fo and Franca Rame's theatre both as a theatrical device and as a genuine illness. It identifies the main traits and differences of madmen and madwomen and where these originate in the Italian socio-political climate from the Sixties to the Nineties. Finally, it outlines(?) the importance of gender in relation to madness and its uses in the Fos' theatre.

Temperature, precipitation and extreme events during the last century in Italy

The paper summarises activities within a broad-based research program for the reconstruction of the evolution of Italian climate in the twentieth century. The main result of the program is that Italian climate is becoming warmer and drier. The decrease of precipitation depends on the reduction in the number of wet days, as precipitation intensity displays a positive trend. Moreover, there is a tendency both toward an increase of heavy precipitation events and long dry spells. Most of the observed signals appear to be due to changes in atmospheric circulation causing an increase in the frequency of subtropical anticyclones over the western Mediterranean basin. This hypothesis is also supported by the evolution of Italian total cloud amount in the 1951–1996 period.

The amenity value of the Italian climate

The hedonics literature suggests that locations with more favourable characteristics should display compensating wage and house price differentials. Specifying climate in terms of January and July averages, estimates of the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables are derived using this technique applied to Italian data. Italians would prefer a drier climate during the winter months, but higher summertime temperatures are shown to reduce welfare. In some locations households would prefer to see clearer skies. These results may have relevance to the task of determining the economic impact of future climate change.

Trends in European Research on Entrepreneurship at the Turn of the Century

This article serves as an introduction to the special issue on Entrepreneurship Research in Europe, a selection of papers from the XIVth RENT conference held in Prague, the Czech Republic, November 23-24, 2000. It provides an overview of the articles and also discusses some of the themes that bind them together: Networking and the diffusion of innovations and family business. In addition, the paper includes a short section highlighting advances in the Italian entrepreneurship climate as evidenced by data provided by several of the papers in this issue carried out by Italian researchers on Italian SMEs.

Optimal orientation and automatic control of external shading devices in office buildings

Movable shading devices are often used to control solar radiation falling on large glazed surfaces in contemporary non‐residential buildings. The paper presents some studies on optimal orientation of building in relation to the type of adopted shading devices and their control logic, in case of adjustable ones. Optimal orientation is the one minimising total annual primary energy demand, including artificial lighting and climatisation, giving the same thermal and luminous comfort. A case study, a room of an office building, has been analysed by means of computer simulations. The external wall of the room is entirely glazed. The effects of three different shading elements configuration are compared. The simulations have been performed in three Italian climates (Venice, Rome, Trapani).