Bond Returns Research Articles

Central bank policies and green bond issuance on a global scale

We employ recently released IMF data to examine the impact of central bank supervision policies on green bond issuance in sixty-six countries during 1992–2021. We introduce three novel metrics to assess central banks' supervisory authority: the breadth of their supervision mandates, the intensity of monitoring and enforcement, and the power of utilization of systemic risk tools. Countries with central banks possessing broader supervisory mandates and actively employing systemic risk tools are broadly associated with higher overall values of green bond issuance. Conversely, higher monitoring and enforcement intensity is associated with lower issuance values. These effects are pronounced in the realm of private green bond issuance and less prominent in government bond issuance where the government has a strong role. While the efficient functioning of financial institutions and the quality of ratings play crucial roles, inflation does not seem to have a significant impact on green bond issuance. Our results remain robust through sensitivity tests and endogeneity analyses. Developed countries primarily rely on central bank monitoring and enforcement intensity as the dominant policy variable, whereas developing countries lean more towards the central bank mandate as the influential policy variable.

Foreign trade and China’s yield curve during the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis based on an extended arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model

We propose a general extension of the arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel (AFNS) model by incorporating exogenous factors into the unspanned AFNS model. Regarding the number of people newly diagnosed with COVID-19 as an exogenous shock and net foreign purchases of treasury bonds of different maturities as unspanned factors, we study the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the trading behavior of foreign investors on the yield curve in China. Our empirical results show that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increases net foreign purchases of short-to-medium-term treasury bonds while significantly reducing the long-term treasury yield. Net foreign purchases of treasury bonds of different maturities cause large shifts with different shapes in the yield curve and have different effects on the excess returns of bonds of different maturities. This paper provides an important reference for risk management, investment decision-making and risk assessment of China’s financial opening policy for its treasury bond market.

Green bond issuance and green innovation: Evidence from China's energy industry

This paper investigates the impact of green bond issuance on green innovation and the associated mechanisms in China's energy industry. Using the panel data of Chinese listed energy firms in the A-share market from 2010 to 2022, we construct a difference-in-differences (DID) model to access relevant empirical results. The results suggest that green bond issuance contributes to both the quantity and quality of energy firms' green innovation and, from the perspective of the quantitative and structural effects of corporate funding, we find that alleviating financing constraints and the maturity mismatch between investment and financing are the two potential channels for this effect. Moreover, we find that the driving effect of green bond issuance on green innovation is more pronounced for larger energy firms, firms in the clean energy sector, eastern energy firms, and those with weak entrepreneurial R&D initiatives.

Prediction and Allocation of Stocks, Bonds, and REITs in the US Market

AbstractThis study employs dynamic model averaging and selection of Vector Autoregressive and Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregressive models to forecast out-of-sample monthly returns of US stocks, bonds, and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) indexes from October 2006 to December 2021. The models were recursively estimated using 17 additional predictors chosen by a genetic algorithm applied to an initial list of 155 predictors. These forecasts were then used to dynamically choose portfolios formed by these assets and the riskless asset proxied by the 3-month US treasury bills. Although we did not find any predictability in the stock market, positive results were obtained for REITs and especially for bonds. The Bayesian-based approaches applied to just the returns of the three risky assets resulted in portfolios that remarkably outperform the portfolios based on the historical means and covariances and the equally weighted portfolio in terms of certainty equivalent return, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio and even Conditional Value-at-Risk at 5%. This study points out that Constant Relative Risk Averse investors should use Bayesian-based approaches to forecast and choose the investment portfolios, focusing their attention on different types of assets.

Volatility Connectedness of MOVE Index and Bond Returns

Research Originality: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study which measures the impact of the MOVE index on bond yield volatility by comparing its effect on both short-term and long-term. The paper contributes to the existing literature by providing a better understanding of the relationship between maturity and volatility spillover. Research Objectives: This study examines the dynamic volatility connectedness between 2 and 10-year bond yields and the MOVE Index. Furthermore, it is aimed at detecting the transmitter of volatility among variables. Research Methods: Using a data set from 2010 to 2022, the study utilizes a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to analyse the dynamics and relationship between bond yields and the MOVE Index. Empirical Results: The study finds a significant volatility spillover between the MOVE Index and Türkiye's bond yields. Notably, the linkage between the MOVE Index and the 10-year bond rates is stronger than with the 2-year rates. Additionally, the MOVE Index emerges as the primary transmitter of volatility, impacting both bond yields. Implications: This study sheds light on the complexity and dynamics of volatility spread in Türkiye's bond market, providing essential insights for forecasting bond yields and shaping financial policies.JEL Classification: G17, C22, G12How to Cite:Baykut, E., Gökgöz, H. (2024). Volatility Connectedness of MOVE Index and Bond Returns. Etikonomi, 23(1), 27 – 46. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v23i1.36131.

SME’s bond issuance and access to bank credit: evidence from Italy

AbstractIn this paper, we rely on the information asymmetries framework and relationship lending theory to study how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)’s access to bank credit improves after the issuance of a Minibond. Minibonds are fixed-income securities issued by SMEs aimed at supporting growth projects and refinancing operations. They were introduced by different European countries only recently, in response to the European sovereign debt crisis, which considerably constrained bank credit for SMEs.Using a representative sample of Italian companies that issued Minibonds in the 2012–2020 period, we find support to our hypotheses. Issuing Minibonds helps SMEs access higher amounts of debt and improves credit conditions in terms of cost of debt and debt maturity, but with some caveats: only Minibonds issued with lower interest rates and longer maturities lead to better access to credit. Moreover, we find that some companies more exposed to information asymmetries (i.e. younger), with better access to transaction lending (depending on their location) and with larger amounts of collateral available (i.e., tangible assets) benefit more from Minibond issuance.

Bail-ins and market discipline: Evidence from China

We examine the effect of bail-in event on the market discipline for Chinese banks, exploiting the bankruptcy of Baoshang Bank and subsequent write-down as a quasi-natural experiment. Using the bond data of banks from 2016 to 2021, we find that the bail-in event leads to higher issuance spreads for bonds with write-down clauses. This effect is more pronounced for bonds issued by small banks, and banks in regions with weaker local fiscal strength. A higher proportion of CoCo bond in the bank capital increase the risk-taking of small banks. CoCo bond issuance reduces the spread of Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) after the event due to a stronger buffer effect. We underscore the role of bail-in event in imposing market discipline in an emerging economy like China.

Uncovering the greenium: Investigating the yield spread between green and conventional bonds

Green bonds are an increasingly used instrument to catalyze cash flows towards a low-carbon economy. Nonetheless, the existence of an actual price advantage is still uncertain. This research paper aims to assess whether there is a green bond premium (“greenium”) for green bonds relative to conventional bonds with similar characteristics, and how liquidity may affect the determination of a price advantage. It analyzes the yield differentials between green and conventional bonds using three different methods. First, a Nelson-Siegel-Svensson method is executed, estimating the premium both as the yield spreads and as the differentials in Z-spreads. Using a matching method and creating a sample of green and synthetic conventional bonds, the second methodology consists in calculating the distances between each categories’ yield for the same duration. Finally, a fixed-effect regression is performed to better control the liquidity bias. In the first case, a positive premium emerges when analyzing the yield spreads (+37.89 basis points) and the Z-spreads (+10.62 basis points). The second method mitigates the liquidity risk by creating a sample of synthetic bonds and reveals a yield spread of –15.89 basis points. Lastly, the regression method shows a negative greenium equal to –17.1487 basis points. Thus, a greenium emerges from all the three different methods, but its nature, sign, and real determinants are still uncertain. It is, therefore, not possible to conclude a definite price advantage for issuers of green bonds.

Green Bonds for International Relations and Sustainable Development Goals: A Comparative Analysis Based on Different Countries

Green Bonds, in the past decade, has been a prominent tool for financing activities that could help the nations achieve the SDGs. Additionally, in this context, the role of international aid tends to be an important moderating factor. The primary purpose of the study was to investigate the role of green bonds in achieving SDGs and if there is a potential role of international aid as a moderating variable. The panel dataset consisted of 11 top countries of the world based on green bond issuance, and subsequently, the timeline for the study was eight fiscal years. The results implied that the issuance of Green Bonds is effective in reducing carbon emissions, thereby having a favourable effect on the achievement of the relevant SDG. Additionally, the realisation of the goals tends to be marginally better when the relationship is moderated by international aid. The findings are relevant to the Comparative Advantage Theory, and subsequently, in the practical scenario, it implies that the policymakers should take necessary steps to increase the acceptance of green bonds to help the nations to achieve the SDGs.

Effectiveness of green bonds on carbon neutrality and clean electricity generation: Comprehensive evidence from the leading emitting country by disaggregated level analysis

Considering increasing public interest in environment-related problems and the carbon-neutrality aims of countries, this study focuses on the effect of green bonds on enabling carbon neutrality and supporting clean electricity in China, which is the leading top carbon-emitting and energy-using country in the world. In this context, the study makes a disaggregated level empirical analysis by considering sectoral emissions and source-based electricity generation by using quantile-based approaches from January 2, 2019, to December 31, 2023. The outcomes show that (i) green bonds decrease mainly emissions in transport and international aviation sectors; (ii) green bonds have mixed effects on the remaining sectoral emissions; (iii) green bonds increase electricity generation from all sources at higher quantiles, whereas they decrease electricity generation at lower quantiles. Thus, the effect of green bonds varies across sectors, electricity generation sources, and quantiles. Accordingly, a set of policy endeavors, such as dealing with firstly such critical sectors as power and industry, supporting the allocated green bond issuance to specified sectors, and focusing on some clean electricity generation sources like solar and wind, are argued for China.

Analyzing the impact of eco-friendly bonds on economic growth and environmental sustainability

In recent decades, a noticeable uptick has been seen in the issuing of eco-friendly bonds across green, social, and sustainable categories. The study examines their intersection with economic expansion and sustainability using panel data from 82 countries analyzed through robust fixed-effects estimators. The results reveal a significant positive correlation between the issuing of eco-friendly bonds and economic growth. Interestingly, a negative relationship emerges between bond performance and growth, suggesting that the mere issuing of bonds may not be enough to ensure sustainable economic expansion. The importance of refined valuation methods for these bonds is emphasized, along with the risk of economic imbalance caused by the uneven distribution of bond investments across sectors, akin to the "Dutch disease." The need to align investment strategies with both economic and environmental objectives to address challenges like persistent carbon emissions is also stressed. The authors advocate the integrating of considerations of bond issuance and performance into long-term sustainability strategies. Despite holding potential for positive environmental impact, eco-friendly bonds may not consistently drive economic growth as initially anticipated, particularly when balancing the development and carbon-reduction objectives.

Consumption Growth Persistence and the Stock–Bond Correlation

Abstract We consider a model in which the correlation between shocks to consumption and to expected future consumption growth is nonzero and varies over time. We validate this assumption empirically using the model’s implication that time variation in consumption growth persistence (CGP) drives the correlation between stock and bond returns. Our model implies that the stock–bond correlation is also related to the predictive relation between bond yields and future stock returns. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that asset price fluctuations are the primary driver of changes in CGP.

China in 2023

In 2023, in an effort to revive the sluggish economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government implemented a variety of stimulus measures, such as interest rate cuts, tax cuts for small and medium-sized enterprises, and the issuance of local government bonds. But recovery has been challenging owing to export controls by the United States, lackluster domestic demand, high youth unemployment, and a real estate bubble. Externally, to respond to stronger cooperation between the United States and its allies in Western Europe and Asia, China actively pursued diplomatic activities with its traditional allies, such as Russia, and developing countries.

Can green bonds promote corporate green technology innovation?——evidence from China

ABSTRACT The development of green finance is of great significance in promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, advancing the sustainable development of the regional economy, and realizing the goal of ‘double carbon’. To explore the effect of green bonds on corporate green technology innovation, this paper uses 856 quarterly data from 45 A-share listed companies that issued green bonds in China from 2016 to 2020, and establishes a double fixed-effects model to test the impact and mechanism of green bonds on corporate green technology innovation. The results show that the issuance of green bonds by enterprises can significantly promote green technological innovation of enterprises, and the promotion effect of green bonds on strategic green innovation is stronger compared with substantive green innovation; this promotion effect is more obvious in regions with high polluting enterprises and better bank competitiveness. Further analysis reveals that green bonds promote green technological innovation mainly by reducing the agency cost and financing cost of enterprises; the degree of equity checks and balances will weaken the promotion effect of green bonds on enterprises’ green technological innovation.

Information disclosure and ESG rating disagreement: Evidence from green bond issuance in China

We explore the relationship between information disclosure and ESG rating disagreement using China's A-share listed companies' green bond issuance from 2011 to 2021. We find a significantly positive correlation between corporate green bond issuance and ESG rating disagreement, which suggests that the ESG ratings disagreement among rating agencies tends to increase for firms with the issuance of green bonds. The results hold valid after a series of robustness tests. We also find that after issuing green bonds, the firm's ESG disclosure score improves significantly, especially in the environmental and social disclosure score components, indicating that firms indeed disclose additional environmental and social information along the issuance of green bonds, which leads to the increase of ESG rating disagreement among rating agencies. Especially, the effect on ESG rating disagreement of the information disclosure is more prominent for firms with more related information disclosed and more attention. In further analysis, we find a positive moderating effect of ESG reports between green bond issuance and ESG rating disagreement.

Optimal control under uncertainty: Application to the issue of CAT bonds

We propose a general framework for studying optimal issue of CAT bonds in the presence of uncertainty on the parameters. In particular, the intensity of arrival of natural disasters is inhomogeneous and may depend on unknown parameters. Given a prior on the distribution of the unknown parameters, we explain how it should evolve according to the classical Bayes rule. Taking these progressive prior-adjustments into account, we characterize the optimal policy through a quasi-variational parabolic equation, which can be solved numerically. We provide examples of application in the context of hurricanes in Florida.

Analisis Pembiayaan Pembangunan Dengan Penerbitan Surat Utang (Obligasi) Daerah Studi Kasus Pada Pemerintah Kota Bogor

ABSTRACT Law Number 23 of 2014 concerning Regional Government mandates that local governments play an important role in determining the success or failure of creating self-reliance, but in practice, local governments encounter limitations in funding sources. Most of the districts and cities depend heavily on the transfer funds provided by the Central Government to the regions, be it Revenue Sharing Funds (DBH), General Allocation Funds (DAU), and Special Allocation Funds (DAK). Another source of income is from the limited Regional Original Revenue (PAD). Bogor City Government is one of the cities in West Java Province that has been given authority by the center to carry out regional autonomy. By handing over this authority, of course, the government hopes that the Bogor City government can explore the potential of the region to finance its development to reduce dependence on the central government. This study aims to analyze the feasibility of the Bogor City government issuing regional bonds (bonds) to finance its construction. This study used a descriptive qualitative research design with an analytical approach. From the analysis of financing through the issuance of regional bonds (bonds) which cover 3 (three) aspects namely legal, organizational, and financial, the Bogor City government has a score of 75% meaning that it is feasible to issue regional bonds (bonds). infrastructure.

Geopolitical risk and global green bond market growth

AbstractUsing individual transaction data, we investigate how geopolitical risk influences green bond issuance across 73 countries during 2008–2021. We consider deal characteristics, as well as economic and institutional factors. We find a positive association between geopolitical risk and green bond issuance. The effect shows nonlinearity and time delays. Our findings remain robust after conducting sensitivity and endogeneity analysis. After decomposing the geopolitical risk index, we discover that all its components have positive correlations with green bond issuance. Lastly, our study highlights the crucial role of the underwriters' network and specific geopolitical jurisdictions as drivers for global green bond market expansion.

Bond Price Fragility and the Structure of the Mutual Fund Industry

Abstract We conjecture that mutual funds with large shares of outstanding bond issues are more inclined to internalize the negative price spillovers of fire sales and thus sell their holdings in those issues, to a lower extent, when they experience redemptions. We provide evidence consistent with this conjecture and further show that ownership concentration limits bonds’ exposures to flow-induced fire sales. We exploit variation in negative spillovers arising from the Fed’s SMCCF to confirm the economic mechanism and explore our findings’ implications for fund performance and fire-sale spillovers to other funds.

Legal uncertainty of municipal bond issuance: a case study of Indonesia and Vietnam

Purpose This study aims to analyze the causes and implications of legal uncertainty in the issuance of conventional municipal bonds in Indonesia and to draw lessons from Vietnam’s approach in providing better legal certainty. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts a normative legal method with a legislative approach and applies a comparative approach. Data sources involve primary and secondary legal materials from both Indonesia and Vietnam. Findings The legal uncertainty is caused by a lack of coherence and consistency in legislation. Based on Vietnam’s experience, Indonesia can gain valuable insights related to providing strong legal certainty for parties involved in issuing or investing through conventional municipal bonds. Research limitations/implications This study focuses on the comparative legal analysis of conventional municipal bonds in Indonesia with Vietnam. Practical implications This research provides recommendations for the refinement of legislation regarding conventional municipal bonds to the government. Social implications This study is related to legal certainty as a strategy to attract investment through municipal bonds and to ensure the municipal bond issuance process is transparent and efficient. Originality/value This study provides a comparative perspective on the issuance of municipal bonds in Indonesia, with a special focus on Vietnam, emphasizing the urgency of harmonization in legal regulation and the sustainability of legal certainty.