This paper considers how lay theory and perceptions of issue ownership affect voters’ expectations of political and economic developments. These expectations are likely to mediate the effects on subjective well-being of specific developments. Estimates employing a panel of 29 European countries observed between 1975 and 2011 suggest that problems within an issue attributed to the ideological side of the incumbent government exerts much stronger well-being effects than when similar problems arise with ideologically opposite governments. The evidence suggests a ‘Nixon goes to China’ effect in well-being.