Issue Linkage Research Articles

Regional Governance of Global Climate Change: The North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation

Over the past decade the governance of global climate change has evolved into a complex, multi-level process involving actors and initiatives at multiple levels of social organization from the global to the local in both the public and private spheres. This article analyzes the North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) as one component of this multilevel governance system. Specifically, it evaluates the CEC as a site of regional climate governance based on three potential advantages of governance through regional organizations: a small number of actors, opportunities for issue linkage, and linkage between national and global governance systems. On each count I find that the benefits of a CEC-based climate governance system are limited and argue for greater consideration of how such a system would interact with other forms of climate governance in North America.

China´ s Performance in International Resource Politics: Lessons from the Mekong

Against the backdrop of population and economic growth China's water resources are getting scarcer. Uneven regional distribution and increasing pollution further reduce the locally available resources. Domestic measures applied to tackle the problems deriving from this scarcity produce international effects, giving rise to the apprehension that China will have to quench its thirst by increasingly exploiting sources that do not stem from or remain within its own territory. China's performance in international negotiations over water as well as in the regional Mekong regime reveals that to China transboundary cooperation is more a strategic option than a normative commitment. This article argues that alliances confronted with the impacts of Chinese water policy should focus on counterbalancing rather than just criticizing or even ignoring Chinese ambitions. With China being in a dominant position hydrologically, as well as politically, a second strategy would be issue linkage: offering incentives in non-water fields in return for cooperative management of shared water resources.

Issue Linkages in International Environmental Policy: The International Whaling Commission and Japanese Development Aid

This article examines whether a country's vote in the International Whaling Commission (IWC) influences the bilateral aid it receives from Japan. While whaling is of marginal importance to the Japanese economy, it carries significant cultural and emotional value in Japan. The puzzle, then, is whether Japan links the issues of IWC voting and bilateral aid provision. Does Japan reward countries that vote with it at the IWC by disbursing higher levels of bilateral development aid to those countries? To examine this puzzle, we examine IWC votes of 26 developing countries over 1999–2004 along with their development needs and economic ties with Japan. Our analysis suggests that Japanese bilateral aid to developing countries is significantly associated with the countries' IWC voting records. These results hold across a range of statistical specifications. Thus, our article provides evidence to suggest that Japan has employed material incentives to defend its cultural preferences regarding whaling in the face of opposition from pro-conservation IWC members and environmental NGOs.

Bargaining Efficiency in Intergovernmental Negotiations in the EU: Treaty of Nice vs. Constitutional Treaty

Two conditions have to be met for bargaining in Intergovernmental Conferences (IGCs) in the EU to be efficient. On the one hand, an effective preparation of the negotiations is essential to provide governments with the necessary information to engage in issue linkages. On the other hand, mediation provided by the EU’s Presidency is indispensable for the finding of compromises and for the elaboration of a final package deal. Systematic evidence from the IGCs of 2000 and of 2003–04 confirms the explanatory power of the article’s argument. As a result of largely ineffective preparation and mediation during the IGC of 2000, the Treaty of Nice (2001) could not (or only provisionally) resolve many of the issues that had led to the convocation of the negotiations. In contrast, largely effective preparation and mediation enabled the far–reaching compromises included in the Constitutional Treaty (2004).

The EU regulatory trade agenda and the quest for WTO enforcement

The European Union (EU) has increasingly called for regulatory agreements in the World Trade Organization (WTO) in areas such as investment, competition, environment, and labour. Why has the EU attempted to satisfy such new demands by pursuing regulatory goals within the WTO rather than within other international organizations? I suggest two reasons for the EU's choice of the WTO. First, the nature of issue linkage in international trade negotiations has changed from exclusive exchanges of market access to the exchange of market access for regulation. Owing to the diversity of domestic constituency demands and consensus decision-making, the EU is particularly reliant on such broad issue linkages. And second, judicialization and the possibility of cross-retaliation in the WTO have enhanced the credibility of WTO commitments, increasing the organization's attractiveness for issue linkages across policy fields. I show how these two factors have contributed to the EU's attempt to place regulatory issues on the agenda of the Doha Development Round.

From Trusted Ally to Suspicious Neighbor: Canada-U.S. Relations in a Changing Global Environment

The Canada-U.S. relationship stands at a crossroads. While in many ways the two countries remain on good terms--for example, they continue to enjoy the world's largest bilateral trade relationship (1)--there have been several disputes in the last few years that suggest a fundamental change in the tenor of the alliance. Perhaps the most important such disagreement was the Canadian debate over the 2003 Iraq war, and the ultimate decision to not support the U.S. and take part in the conflict. This paper will examine this dispute in an attempt to determine what it tells us about the current status of the bilateral relationship. Most critically, the Iraq war underlined a difference between Canada and the U.S. in their preference for, and willingness to pursue, unilateral initiatives (and conversely, multilateral ones). The war also revealed significant differences in the manner in which the two states believe that force can be used to resolve conflicts, and the conditions under which the use of force is appropriate. In this regard, it was not only the Canadian reluctance to support the U.S. that so angered American officials--a judgement, after all, that many countries agreed with--but the seeming Canadian inability to make a decision and stick to it. Ultimately, Canada's position on Iraq demonstrated not only increasing divergence with the U.S. over geo-political interests and goals, but also revealed a lack of trust between the two countries, a problem that the Canadian government of Paul Martin will have to work hard to correct. This paper is divided into three sections. The first examines the historical context of the contemporary bilateral relationship, and focuses on the differing attitudes of the two countries toward unilateralism and multilateralism, the latter being Canada's traditional foreign policy orientation, and an approach which is increasingly raising concerns in Washington. The second looks at Canadian decision making regarding the Iraq war, and in particular Ottawa's erratic and inconsistent approach to the conflict. Lastly, the third section reviews the paper's observations and findings, and discusses some steps that both states might take to lessen tensions in the near-term. Part One: The Historical Pattern of the Canada-U.S. Relationship, and Canada's Preference for Multilateralism Given the degree to which Canada and the U.S. are interconnected, it is perhaps surprising that there is neither a specific agreement nor set of agreements that governs the relationship. Rather, a series of bilateral accords have been designed to structure and manage various aspects of the ties between the two countries. (2) Among the most significant are the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the subsequent North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD), and the International Joint Commission (IJC). Any institutions created by these agreements are issue specific, a point that successive Canadian governments have insisted upon. In this regard, it should be noted that it has been the Canadian government that has refused comprehensive bilateral agreements, as Canada's preference has been to create ad hoc institutions that highlight particular issues and developments. (3) The rationale for this is that Canada maximizes its leverage with the U.S. by adopting an administrative approach to bilateral relations, thereby negotiating matters at a lower level. (4) By avoiding issue linkage or large scale initiatives, this method tries to prevent the full force of American power from being brought to bear on Canada. In addition, Canada's smaller bureaucracy and the importance that the government typically attaches to bilateral issues means that negotiations can be more easily tracked, and that Canada's power can be magnified. (5) On the other hand, the approach can result in inconsistency and an overall lack of policy coherence. In many ways, the practice of avoiding comprehensive bilateral agreements is consistent with the Canadian desire to treat its relationship with the U. …

Non-binding linked-issues referenda: Analysis and an application

Non-binding referenda (‘petitions') are an instrument of direct democracy that allows citizens to signal preferences to politicians outside the electoral cycle. This paper provides a simple theoretical and empirical analysis of a particular form of non-binding referenda, so-called linked-issues petitions. It analyzes the ability of issue linkage to increase participation levels above those of single-issue petitions and applies the analytical insights to a controversial referendum held in Austria in 2002 that linked issues of transboundary nuclear risk and Eastern enlargement of the European Union.

Regional and Sub-Global Climate Blocs. A Game-Theoretic Perspective on Bottom-up Climate Regimes

No international regime on climate change is going to be fully effective in controlling GHG emissions without the involvement of countries such as China, India, the United States, Australia, and possibly other developing countries. This highlights an unambiguous weakness of the Kyoto Protocol, where the aforementioned countries either have no binding emission targets or have decided not to comply with their targets. Therefore, when discussing possible post-Kyoto scenarios, it is crucial to prioritize participation incentives for all countries, especially those without explicit or with insufficient abatement targets. This paper offers a bottom-up game-theoretic perspective on participation incentives. Rather than focusing on issue linkage, transfers or burden sharing as tools to enhance the incentives to participate in a climate agreement, this paper aims at exploring whether a different policy approach could lead more countries to adopt effective climate control policies. This policy approach is explicitly bottom-up, namely it gives each country the freedom to sign agreements and deals, bilaterally or multilaterally, with other countries, without being constrained by any global protocol or convention. This study provides a game-theoretic assessment of this policy approach and then evaluates empirically the possible endogenous emergence of single or multiple climate coalitions. Welfare and technological consequences of different multiple bloc climate regimes will be assessed and their overall environmental effectiveness will be discussed.

Political Multilevel Negotiations and Issue Linkage During an EU Intergovernmental Conference: An Empirical Application

Due to the growing interdependence of countries, international multilateral, multiple issue negotiations become increasingly important. Since there is a quasi-absence of hierarchy and majority voting in international relations, linkage politics is considered to be the mechanism of collective decision making and conflict resolution par excellence. We argue that the linkage metaphor can be neatly conceptualized with the political exchange model of James Coleman. Empirically, we provide an application to an EU intergovernmental conference on treaty reform. Descriptively, we focus on the interdependencies of actors and issues. Analytically, we test whether within-governmental conflicts weaken or strengthen the domestic supply chain (political support, credibility) for international negotiation delegations.

The Short-Term and Long-Term Ramifications of Linkages Involving Natural Resources: The US – Mexico Transboundary Water Case

Issue linkage is often recommended as a strategy for enhancing cooperation. Lately it has been suggested that this strategy could also be applied to the management of transboundary natural resources. The authors examine the viability of this suggestion. They argue that in the case of natural resources such a linkage may have both short-term and long-term implications. Essentially, by constraining the options available to the various parties, such linkages limit ability to adapt management regimes to changes in the environment; thereby, they limit the ability to address environmental stresses and crises. These negative implications may be redressed by mechanisms that will allow the parties to adapt the linkage to new conditions and by tactics that reduce the political cost of a linkage strategy. The authors focus on the negotiation process concerning US–Mexico transboundary water, which was based on a long-term spatial linkage combining the waters of the Colorado River and those of the Rio Grande. This spatial linkage was advanced by a short-term issue linkage, in which the Mexican government supported the establishment of the United Nations in return for the US federal government's willingness to accept the spatial linkage. These linkages were found to have both short-term and long-term adverse implications. The short-term implications were delays in negotiations, inconsistency in the legal doctrines held by the different parties during the negotiation, and a threat to sovereignty. The main long-term implication identified is the current inability of Mexico to adapt the linkage in response to the ten-year drought along the Rio Grande, as manifest in the inability of Mexico to meet its water obligations to the USA along the Rio Grande. This has resulted in a controversy between Mexico and the USA, and between the Mexican federal government and the Mexican border states. It is suggested that flexibility provisions be included when linkages involving natural resources are advanced, so that the necessary adaptations in regimes management will be allowed for without necessitating a renegotiation of the treaty.

Regulation in the WTO and the North-South Divide: A Post Cancun Evaluation

The demand for trade policy in the developed countries is such that possible WTO agreements include many regulatory issues. On the other hand, regulation is development related in many ways: the best rule may vary with the level of development, the opportunity cost of establishing regulation varies with income level and, finally, liberalisation of regulatory protection between countries at different levels of development is likely to take the form of hegemonic harmonisation. Special and differential treatment for the developing countries could provide solutions but SDT is flawed because of two mutually reinforcing ambiguities: first, it applies to a set of countries with widely different levels of development, on the basis of a self selection; second, its provisions for positive action on the part of developed countries are mostly not legally enforceable. The status quo tends to be defended by the developing countries as for the first ambiguity, by the developed countries as for the second. Therefore, the expansion of the agenda within the framework of the single undertaking rule, coupled with scant liberalisation in agriculture, has produced constant tension up to the Cancun failure. Deep integration through the WTO and single undertaking have proved to be a very difficult combination, which locked the system into a net of issue linkages.

Coping with disintegration of a river-basin management system: multi-dimensional issues in Central Asia

Prior to independence the Soviet system focused on the geographical boundaries of the Syr Darya Basin and managed the environmental resources according to these boundaries. Hence, the riparian states were tied together through the management of water, energy and food products. After independence, the individual states focused on national interests, and this development led to destabilisation. The Syr Darya Basin shows that national strategies for a natural resource use have created instability. Complex cooperation incorporating water, energy and agriculture is necessary. An issue linkage approach and a wider understanding of common pooled resources can create stability for the whole basin.

Non-Compliance with EU Directives in the Member States: Opposition through the Backdoor?

To what extent are European rules complied with, and what are the reasons for non-compliance with EU law? According to an intergovernmentalist perspective, implementation problems should occur when member states failed to assert their interests in the European decision-making process. Focusing on 26 infringement procedures from the area of labour law, we show that such ‘opposition through the backdoor’ does occur occasionally. However, we demonstrate that opposition at the end of the EU policy process may also arise without prior opposition at the beginning. Additionally, our findings indicate that non-compliance is often unrelated to opposition, and due to administrative shortcomings, interpretation problems, and issue linkage. This study is based on unique in-depth data stemming from a ground-level analysis of the implementation of six EU Directives in all 15 member states.

Food fights over free trade: how international institutions promote agricultural trade liberalization

This detailed account of the politics of opening agricultural markets explains how the institutional context of international negotiations alters the balance of interests at the domestic level to favor trade liberalization despite opposition from powerful farm groups. Historically, agriculture stands out as a sector in which countries stubbornly defend domestic programs, and agricultural issues have been the most frequent source of trade disputes in the postwar trading system. While much protection remains, agricultural trade negotiations have resulted in substantial concessions as well as negotiation collapses. Food Fights over Free Trade shows that the liberalization that has occurred has been due to the role of international institutions. Christina Davis examines the past thirty years of U.S. agricultural trade negotiations with Japan and Europe based on statistical analysis of an original dataset, case studies, and in-depth interviews with over one hundred negotiators and politicians. She shows how the use of issue linkage and international law in the negotiation structure transforms narrow interest group politics into a more broad-based decision process that considers the larger stakes of the negotiation. Even when U.S. threats and the spiraling budget costs of agricultural protection have failed to bring policy change, the agenda, rules, and procedures of trade negotiations have often provided the necessary leverage to open Japanese and European markets. This book represents a major contribution to understanding the negotiation process, agricultural politics, and the impact of international institutions on domestic politics.

International Institutions and Issue Linkage: Building Support for Agricultural Trade Liberalization

This article explains how the institutional context of international negotiations influences their outcomes. I argue that issue linkage counteracts domestic obstacles to liberalization by broadening the negotiation stakes. Institutions bolster the credibility of the linkage to make it more effective. I test the argument in the agricultural sector, which has been among the most difficult sectors for governments to liberalize. Statistical analysis of U.S. negotiations with Japan and the EU from 1970 to 1999 indicates that an institutionalized linkage between agricultural and industrial issues encourages agricultural liberalization in both Japan and Europe. Through case studies of key negotiations, I first examine why countries choose to link issues, then show how the linkage changes interest group mobilization and shifts the policy process to promote liberalization.

A Theory of Economic Sanctions and Issue Linkage: The Roles of Preferences, Information, and Threats

A realistic theory of economic sanctions should be built on the facts that sanctions are a game of issue linkage involving two or more issues, players may not know each other's preferences for the outcome of the game, and threatening sanctions may be as important as imposing sanctions as a strategy in international disputes. The threat and use of economic sanctions are modeled as a multistage game of two-sided incomplete information between a target and a coercer. The threat stage is critically important for understanding the outcome of sanctions, and current empirical studies suffer from a case selection bias. Economic sanctions are likely to be imposed when they are not likely to succeed in changing the target's behavior. Sanctions that are likely to succeed will do so at the mere threat of sanctions. Despite the unlikely success of sanctions, coercers must sometimes impose sanctions, even after the threat of sanctions has failed to change the target's behavior.

The French commitment to European monetary integration: A review of the two EMS crises (1981–83, 1992–93)

This paper focuses on the process of exchange rate management during the two European Monetary System(EMS) crises, in 1981–83 and 1992–93, and examines the factors which led the French governments to adhere to the EMS. France's strong franc (franc fort) policy is a useful test case for maintaining national commitment to European monetary integration. The origin of the franc fort policy can be traced back to the exchange rate crisis of 1981–83. By actively supporting European institutions and emphasizing the emergence of a strong and united European common currency, France discovered the way to bolster confidence in her economic policy. Beyond this focal point, political justification and economic rationality became mutually reinforcing, configuring French national preference in European monetary integration. The response of the French government to the EMS crisis of 1992–93 was more consistent compared to the response to the 1981–83 crisis, and reflected the accumulation of loyalty to European monetary integration. This loyalty, however, was made neither from purely economic calculation nor out of normative commitment French European monetary policy reflected the interaction between domestic politics and European monetary integration. The French commitment to the franc fort also was based on domestic political bases such as the existence of a core policy group, a centralized policy‐making structure, and an issue linkage between the franc fort and European integration.

Climate coalitions and international trade: assessment of cooperation incentives by issue linkage

This paper investigates climate control coalition games. It studies whether incentives exist for non-cooperating nations like the USA to join a coalition based upon issue linkage. Issue linkage is considered through increased R&D expenditures triggering improved technological innovations that advance energy efficiencies. Model calculations demonstrate that incentives exist for non-cooperating countries like the USA to join a climate control coalition if nations cooperate on technological innovations. Restrictions on trade such as sanction mechanisms against non-cooperating countries are not necessarily an incentive to join a coalition. Technological spillover effects lead to improved economic situations and increased energy efficiencies in non-cooperating countries.

Endogenous Strategic Issue Linkage in International Negotiations

This paper analyses issue linkage as a way to increase co-operation on issues where incentives to free-ride are strong. The goal is to determine under what conditions players prefer to link negotiations on two different issues rather than to negotiate on the two issues separately. Suppose that players are asked to vote on issue linkage before starting negotiations. Under what conditions would they vote in favour of issue linkage? The answer to this question is not trivial. Issue linkage may indeed increase the number of cooperators on the provision of a public good (a typical issue characterised by strong incentives to free-ride). However, at the same time, issue linkage may reduce the number of cooperating players on the other economic issue which is linked to the provision of a public good. Players therefore face a trade-off. This paper analyses this trade-off within a game-theoretic framework and shows under what conditions issue linkage is players’ equilibrium strategy.

The Trade-Security Nexus: The New Reality in Canada-U.S. Economic Integration

...the relatively unrestricted mobility of capital between Canada and the United States has done more to integrate the economies of the two countries than any other factor except geography. (Aitken 1961,19) ...the further regional economic integration proceeds in other parts of the world the more vital will relations with Canada become for the national interests of the United States... [at the same time] If Canada wants the United States to do something she must be able to prove that it is in the interests of the United States to do it. (Aitken 1961,155-6) ********** Hugh Aitken said more than can be captured in the above quotes in his prescient book, American Capital and Canadian Resources, published more than four decades ago. He also noted the differences between the way integration was unfolding in North America and in Europe, the interrelationship between economic integration and continental defense, and the challenges the increasingly intimate relationship with the U.S. posed, and would continue to pose, for Canada (Aitken 1961, ch. 1). Aitken was describing a relationship that was the result of decisions of corporate and individual investors, not government policy (2) (though some U.S. government concerns such as security of supply of certain key commodities in the context of the Cold War did influence U.S. corporate investment in Canadian resources). The questions Aitken raised about the implications of Canada's growing economic ties with the U.S. remain at the center of the Canadian agenda. The immediate economic impact of closure of the border following the terrorist attacks on the U.S. on September 11, 2001, emphasized the differences in national priorities. For Canada the issue was and remains economic security, which translates into unimpeded access to the U.S. market for Canadian exports and imports. For the U.S. the issue was and continues to be homeland security, in which a secure border trumps economic connectedness with Canada and Canadian economic dependence. This article examines Canada-U.S. economic relations in light of the now critical connection between trade and security. It demonstrates the linkages between the two economies and the asymmetrical character of that relationship and argues that lack of attention to the linkage between trade and security could hinder the hitherto predictable cross-border movement of goods on which Canada's economic health has come to depend. The article begins with some discussion of two of the analytical prisms through which the bilateral relation ship has been understood. The second section outlines the origins of bilateral economic ties in the nineteenth century, and then in the third attempts to measure the extent of Canada-U.S. economic integration, with particular attention to trends since the implementation of Canada- U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSETA) in 1989 and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994. This section of the paper also looks at business attitudes toward the relationship. The fourth part of the article quickly reviews impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks. The conclusion examines some of the factors shaping the environment in which the next stages in the relationship will unfold. 1. Analytical Perspectives on the Canada-U.S. Economic Relationship Two of the many analytical paradigms on Canada-U.S. relations inform this article. The first is the literature on economic integration, particularly the European experience, and the way in which, implicitly or explicitly, our understanding of what has occurred (and is occurring) in Europe shapes our analysis of the Canada-U.S. (and sometimes the Canada-U .S.-Mexico) relationship. The second is the Keohane and Nye conclusion about lack of issue linkage in the Canada-U.S. relationship, the idea that since World War II differences of views between the two-on-one issue in their relationship normally did not affect the outcome of bargaining on other unrelated matters (2001, 146-51). …