Isotopic General Circulation Model Research Articles

Can we use precipitation isotope outputs of isotopic general circulation models to improve hydrological modeling in large mountainous catchments on the Tibetan Plateau?

Abstract. Issues related to large uncertainty and parameter equifinality have posed big challenges for hydrological modeling in cold regions where runoff generation processes are particularly complicated. Tracer-aided hydrological models that integrate the transportation and fractionation processes of water stable isotope are increasingly used to constrain parameter uncertainty and refine the parameterizations of specific hydrological processes in cold regions. However, the common unavailability of site sampling of spatially distributed precipitation isotopes hampers the practical applications of tracer-aided models in large-scale catchments. This study, taking the precipitation isotope data (isotopes-incorporated global spectral model – isoGSM) derived from the isotopic general circulation models (iGCMs) as an example, explored its utility in driving a tracer-aided hydrological model in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin (YTR; around 2×105 km2, with a mean elevation of 4875 m) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The isoGSM product was firstly corrected based on the biases between gridded precipitation isotope estimates and the limited site sampling measurements. Model simulations driven by the corrected isoGSM data were then compared with those forced by spatially interpolated precipitation isotopes from site sampling measurements. Our results indicated that (1) spatial precipitation isotopes derived from the isoGSM data helped to reduce modeling uncertainty and improve parameter identifiability in a large mountainous catchment on the TP, compared to a calibration method using discharge and snow cover area fraction without any information on water isotopes; (2) model parameters estimated by the corrected isoGSM data presented higher transferability to nested subbasins and produced higher model performance in the validation period than that estimated by the interpolated precipitation isotope data from site sampling measurements; (3) model calibration forced by the corrected isoGSM data successfully rejected parameter sets that overestimated glacier melt contribution and gave more reliable contributions of runoff components, indicating the corrected isoGSM data served as a better choice to provide informative spatial precipitation isotope than the interpolated data from site sampling measurements at the macro scale. This work suggested plausible utility of combining isoGSM data with measurements, even from a sparse sampling network, in improving hydrological modeling in large high mountain basins.

Precipitation regime and stable isotopes at Dome Fuji, East Antarctica

Abstract. A unique set of 1-year precipitation and stable water isotope measurements from the Japanese Antarctic station, Dome Fuji, has been used to study the impact of the synoptic situation and the precipitation origin on the isotopic composition of precipitation on the Antarctic Plateau. The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) archive data are used to analyse the synoptic situations that cause precipitation. These situations are investigated and divided into five categories. The most common weather situation during a precipitation event is an upper-level ridge that extends onto the Antarctic Plateau and causes strong northerly advection from the ocean. Most precipitation events are associated with an increase in temperature and wind speed, and a local maximum of δ18O. During the measurement period, 21 synoptically caused precipitation events caused 60 % of the total annual precipitation, whereas the remaining 40 % were predominantly attributed to diamond dust. By combining the synoptic analyses with 5-day back-trajectories, the moisture source regions for precipitation events were estimated. An average source region around a latitude of 55° S was found. The atmospheric conditions in the source region were used as initial conditions for running a Rayleigh-type isotopic model in order to reproduce the measured isotopic composition of fresh snow and to investigate the influence of the precipitation source region on the isotope ratios. The model represents the measured annual cycle of δ18O and the second-order isotopic parameter deuterium excess reasonably well, but yields on average too little fractionation along the transport/cooling path. While simulations with an isotopic general circulation model (GCM) (ECHAM5-wiso) for Dome Fuji are on average closer to the observations, this model cannot reproduce the annual cycle of deuterium excess. In the event-based analysis, no evidence of a correlation of the measured deuterium excess with the latitude of the moisture source region or the corresponding conditions was identified. Contrary to the assumption used for decades in ice core studies, a more northerly moisture source does not necessarily mean a larger temperature difference between source area and deposition site, thus a more depleted precipitation in heavy isotopes with a higher deuterium excess.

Atmospheric processes governing the changes in water isotopologues during ENSO events from model and satellite measurements

AbstractENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) has profound effects on the global water cycle, which can be examined at the process level by investigating the associated water isotopologues. Many isotope‐based studies are aimed at understanding ENSO variability in the tropics, however, focusing principally on near‐surface processes and isotopologue signals. The goal of the present study is to investigate the atmospheric processes governing the changes in the isotopic composition of water vapor both near the surface and at midtroposphere in the Pacific region during ENSO events, using a combination of remote sensing data and model simulations. For the lower atmosphere (i.e., 1000 hPa), our results show that rainout processes, less rain reevaporation of falling droplets, and increase of convective updrafts and diffusive exchange within the convective systems contribute to “the isotope amount effect” and isotopically deplete the water vapor during wet conditions, in agreement with previous studies. However, we find that the ENSO‐associated isotopic signal in the midtroposphere (i.e., 500 hPa) diverges from the near‐surface response. Analysis suggests that transport of enriched water vapor from lower atmospheric layers through convective updrafts controls the enrichment of midtropospheric water vapor over the Pacific Ocean. In the observations, a strong positive correlation between the increase of convective precipitation and the isotopic composition of water vapor clearly points to such a mechanism (R of 0.7–0.8 in the Central Pacific and 0.5–0.6 in the West Pacific). Model results confirm this mechanisms though producing slightly lower correlation values, with R values of 0.6 in the Central Pacific and 0.5 in the West Pacific. However, the distinction between convective and stratiform precipitation remains a result of model‐dependent parameterization. Our analysis suggests that two issues should be investigated in more detail in further studies: (1) the equilibrium and disequilibrium between rain droplets and surrounding vapor for convective and stratiform precipitation and (2) different convection schemes in the different isotopic general circulation models (GCMs) describing the triggering of convection and uplift of lower layer air to higher layers. Ideally, such a comparison of different isotopic GCMs can provide us with an interesting benchmark test for the performance of the different convection schemes during ENSO and can help to disentangle the importance of the different processes contributing to the amount effect.

A posteriori calculation of δ<sup>18</sup>O and δD in atmospheric water vapour from ground-based near-infrared FTIR retrievals of H<sub>2</sub><sup>16</sup>O, H<sub>2</sub><sup>18</sup>O, and HD<sup>16</sup>O

Abstract. This paper investigates the scientific value of retrieving H218O and HDO columns in addition to H216O columns from high-resolution ground-based near-infrared spectra. We present a set of refined H216O, H218O, and HDO spectral windows. The retrieved H216O, H218O, and HDO columns are used for an a posteriori calculation of columnar δD and δ18O. We estimate the uncertainties for the so-calculated columnar δD and δ18O values. These estimations include uncertainties due to the measurement noise, errors in the a priori data, and uncertainties in spectroscopic parameters. Time series of δ18O obtained from ground-based FTIR (Fourier transform infrared) spectra are presented for the first time. For our study we use a full physics isotopic general circulation model (ECHAM5-wiso). We show that the full physics simulation of HDO and H218O can already be reasonably predicted from the H216O columns by a simple linear regression model (scatter values between full physics and linear regression simulations are 35 and 4‰ for HDO and H218O, respectively). We document that the columnar δD and δ18O values as calculated a posteriori from the retrievals of H216O, H218O, and HDO show a better agreement with the ECHAM5-wiso simulation than the δD and δ18O values as calculated from the H216O retrievals and the simple linear regression model. This suggests that the H218O and HDO column retrievals add complementary information to the H216O retrievals. However, these data have to be used carefully, because of the different vertical sensitivity of the H216O, H218O, and HDO columnar retrievals. Furthermore, we have to note that the retrievals use reanalysis humidity profiles as a priori input and the results are thus not independent of the reanalysis data.

Observation of tropospheric δD by IASI over western Siberia: comparison with a general circulation model

Abstract. This study presents the joint H216O and HDO retrieval from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) spectra over western Siberia. IASI is an instrument on board the MetOp-A European satellite. The global coverage of the instrument and the good signal-to-noise ratio allow us to provide information on δD over this remote region. We show that IASI measurements may be used to estimate integrated δD between the surface and 3 km altitude or from 1 to 5 km depending on the thermal contrast, with observational errors lower than 4% and 7%, respectively. The retrieved data are compared to simulations from an isotopic general circulation model, LMDZ-iso for 2011. The satellite measurements and the model agree well and they reproduce well the seasonal and day-to-day variations for δD, presenting a good correlation (r up to 0.8 with the smoothed data in summer). The IASI-based retrievals also show the seasonal variation of the specific humidity in both altitude ranges.

Water isotopes as tools to document oceanic sources of precipitation

The isotopic composition of precipitation, in deuterium, oxygen 18 and oxygen 17, depends on the climatic conditions prevailing in the oceanic regions where it originates, mainly the sea surface temperature and the relative humidity of air. This dependency applies to present‐day precipitation but also to past records which are extracted, for example, from polar ice cores. In turn, coisotopic measurements of deuterium and oxygen 18 offer the possibility to retrieve information about the oceanic origin of modern precipitation as well as about past changes in sea surface temperature and relative humidity of air. This interpretation of isotopic measurements has largely relied on simple Rayleigh‐type isotopic models and is complemented by Lagrangian back trajectory analysis of moisture sources. It is now complemented by isotopic General Circulation Models (IGCM) in which the origin of precipitation can be tagged. We shortly review published results documenting this link between the oceanic sources of precipitation and their isotopic composition. We then present experiments performed with two different IGCMs, the GISS model II and the LMDZ model. We focus our study on marine water vapor and its contribution to precipitation over Antarctica and over the Andean region of South America. We show how IGCM experiments allow us to relate climatic conditions prevailing in the oceanic source of precipitation to its isotopic composition. Such experiments support, at least qualitatively, the current interpretation of ice core isotopic data in terms of changes in sea surface temperature. Additionally, we discuss recent studies clearly showing the added value of oxygen 17 measurements.

Can we determine what controls the spatio-temporal distribution of d-excess and <sup>17</sup>O-excess in precipitation using the LMDZ general circulation model?

Abstract. Combined measurements of the H218O and HDO isotopic ratios in precipitation, leading to second-order parameter D-excess, have provided additional constraints on past climates compared to the H218O isotopic ratio alone. More recently, measurements of H217O have led to another second-order parameter: 17O-excess. Recent studies suggest that 17O-excess in polar ice may provide information on evaporative conditions at the moisture source. However, the processes controlling the spatio-temporal distribution of 17O-excess are still far from being fully understood. We use the isotopic general circulation model (GCM) LMDZ to better understand what controls d-excess and 17O-excess in precipitation at present-day (PD) and during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The simulation of D-excess and 17O-excess is evaluated against measurements in meteoric water, water vapor and polar ice cores. A set of sensitivity tests and diagnostics are used to quantify the relative effects of evaporative conditions (sea surface temperature and relative humidity), Rayleigh distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins, precipitation re-evaporation and supersaturation during condensation at low temperature. In LMDZ, simulations suggest that in the tropics convective processes and rain re-evaporation are important controls on precipitation D-excess and 17O-excess. In higher latitudes, the effect of distillation, mixing between vapors from different origins and supersaturation are the most important controls. For example, the lower d-excess and 17O-excess at LGM simulated at LGM are mainly due to the supersaturation effect. The effect of supersaturation is however very sensitive to a parameter whose tuning would require more measurements and laboratory experiments. Evaporative conditions had previously been suggested to be key controlling factors of d-excess and 17O-excess, but LMDZ underestimates their role. More generally, some shortcomings in the simulation of 17O-excess by LMDZ suggest that general circulation models are not yet the perfect tool to quantify with confidence all processes controlling 17O-excess.

The relationship between the isotopic content of precipitation and the precipitation amount in tropical regions

General circulation models (GCMs) fitted with stable isotope schemes are widely used to interpret the isotope–climate relationship. However, previous studies have found that the spatiotemporal isotope/precipitation correlation simulated by GCMs is stronger and more widespread than the observed value. To understand the reason for this failure, we investigated the factors influencing the empirically well-known isotope/precipitation relationship, or precipitation amount effect, in the tropics using newly obtained daily precipitation isotope monitoring data over Asia. As in previous studies, we found an apparent correlation between the long-term monthly mean isotopic content and the corresponding precipitation amount (local precipitation) observed at sub-tropical island stations. Furthermore, on a monthly timescale, the isotopic variability of precipitation for these stations was more clearly related to the regional precipitation amount than to local precipitation. This correlation of isotopic content with the regional precipitation amount was observed at the equatorial (Maritime Continent) stations. For these stations, isotope/local precipitation relationships only appeared over longer timescales, with different regression line slopes at each station. However, at the coastal stations, there was a strong linear relationship between the monthly mean isotopic content and corresponding regional precipitation, and regression line slopes were spatially uniform. For the two sub-tropical terrestrial (Indochina Peninsula) stations, the isotopic minimum appeared without any relationship to rainfall amount but usually occurred at the leeward station during the rainy season. These results suggest that the isotopic variations of precipitation did not depend on the ’local’ rain-out history but on the rain-out process in the surrounding region. However, local rainfall events were associated not only with large-scale disturbances but also with regional circulation. Thus, the scale difference of controlling factors between local rainfall amount and isotopic value results in the weakening of the rainfall amount effect at the observation site and in the discrepancy between GCM simulations and observations. This finding suggests that regional precipitation–isotope relationships should be compared with GCM results. Additionally, because the isotope signal reflects the rain-out history at a regional scale, evaluation of the isotopic field using isotopic GCMs will be useful not only to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions but also to examine how GCMs can reproduce real atmospheric circulation over the tropics.