Consider a group G and an epimorphism u_0\colon G\to \mathbb Z inducing a splitting of G as a semidirect product ker (u_0)\rtimes_\varphi \mathbb Z with ker (u_0) a finitely generated free group and \varphi\in Out (ker (u_0) ) representable by an expanding irreducible train track map. Building on our earlier work [DKL], in which we realized G as \pi_1(X) for an Eilenberg–Maclane 2-complex X equipped with a semiflow \psi , and inspired by McMullen's Teichmüller polynomial for fibered hyperbolic 3-manifolds, we construct a polynomial invariant \mathfrak m \in \mathbb Z[H_1(G;\mathbb Z)/ torsion] for (X,\psi) and investigate its properties. Specifically, \mathfrak m determines a convex polyhedral cone \mathcal C_X\subset H^1(G;\mathbb R) , a convex, real-analytic function \mathfrak H\colon \mathcal C_X\to \mathbb R , and specializes to give an integral Laurent polynomial \mathfrak m_u(\zeta) for each integral u\in \mathcal C_X . We show that \mathcal C_X is equal to the "cone of sections" of (X,\psi) (the convex hull of all cohomology classes dual to sections of of \psi ), and that for each (compatible) cross section \Theta_u\subset X with first return map f_u\colon \Theta_u\to \Theta_u , the specialization \mathfrak m_u(\zeta) encodes the characteristic polynomial of the transition matrix of f_u . More generally, for every class u\in \mathcal C_X there exists a geodesic metric d_u and a codimension-1 foliation \Omega_u of X defined by a "closed 1-form" representing u transverse to \psi so that after reparametrizing the flow \psi^u_{s} maps leaves of \Omega_u to leaves via a local e^{s\mathfrak H(u)} -homothety. Among other things, we additionally prove that \mathcal C_X is equal to (the cone over) the component of the BNS-invariant \Sigma(G) containing u_0 and, consequently, that each primitive integral u\in \mathcal C_X induces a splitting of G as an ascending HNN-extension G = Q_u\ast_{\phi_u} with Q_u a finite-rank free group and \phi_u\colon Q_u\to Q_u injective. For any such splitting, we show that the stretch factor of \phi_u is exactly given by e^{\mathfrak H(u)} . In particular, we see that \mathcal C_X and \mathfrak H depend only on the group G and epimorphism u_0 .
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