This study evaluates the financial viability and scalability of green hydrogen production in Costa Rica, focusing on solar and wind energy. The research analyzes seven key provinces using Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and wind speed data to assess energy potential. Monte Carlo simulations were employed to calculate the Net Present Value (NPV), hydrogen production costs, and economic sustainability over multiple project lifetimes. Guanacaste, with solar irradiance of 5.49 kWh/m2/day and wind speeds of 6.59 m/s, emerges as the most favorable region. The analysis reveals an NPV of $1,519.79 USD for onshore wind and $2,320.24 USD for offshore wind over 10 years. These values increase significantly for longer lifetimes, with 25-year NPVs of $3,687.40 USD for onshore wind and $5,890.72 USD for offshore wind, and 50-year NPVs reaching $7,456.21 USD and $11,560.38 USD, respectively. Hydrogen production costs are estimated at $49,696.75 USD from solar and $14,923.19 USD from wind energy. Despite its potential, high costs remain a challenge, requiring policy incentives, international cooperation, and green bonds to drive down costs and scale production. The study offers crucial insights for policymakers, investors, and researchers to support Costa Rica’s leadership in the global green hydrogen economy. Statement of SignificanceThe global shift toward renewable energy is critical for meeting decarbonization goals, and green hydrogen is emerging as a vital solution for sectors that are hard to electrify, such as transportation and heavy industry. However, the high cost of green hydrogen production poses a significant barrier to its widespread adoption. This study tackles the critical research problem of how to make green hydrogen economically viable by evaluating the potential of Costa Rica’s renewable energy resources—specifically solar PV and wind energy—to support large-scale hydrogen production.By integrating Monte Carlo simulations with region-specific financial analysis, this study provides a thorough assessment of hydrogen production costs and infrastructure requirements across Costa Rica’s provinces. The significance of this work lies in its localized approach, offering actionable insights into how a developing country with abundant renewable energy can position itself as a global leader in green hydrogen production. This research provides evidence that while current hydrogen production costs are higher than global targets, Costa Rica’s renewable resources present a strong foundation for future growth with the right policy interventions.The study’s findings have substantial implications for future research, policy, and investment strategies. By highlighting the financial and technological challenges, as well as offering potential solutions through international partnerships and innovative financing models, this research paves the way for Costa Rica and similar countries to contribute meaningfully to the global green hydrogen economy.
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