Irish Dairy Farms Research Articles

187 An examination of forage production costs on Northern irish dairy farms

187 An examination of forage production costs on Northern irish dairy farms

A survey analysis of farmer practices and perceptions of zero-grazing on Irish dairy farms

Zero-grazing (ZG; the mechanical harvesting and feeding of fresh grass) is increasingly used in grass-based milk production systems alongside conventional grazing. It allows farmers to supply fresh grass from land parcels that are outside of the main grazing block during seasonal shortages and periods when climatic conditions limit animal grazing opportunities. The objective of this study was to establish an understanding of current ZG practices on Irish dairy farms, to capture farmer perceptions on the implementation of this management practice, and to identify farmer knowledge requirements on ZG. An online survey was distributed and completed by 130 dairy farmers who use or have used ZG. Zero-grazing was used alongside conventional grazing by 92% of respondents. These farms were particularly fragmented, with between 1 and 14 separate land blocks. Respondents felt ZG helped them overcome fragmentation, increase grass use, and extend grass feeding in spring and autumn. However, extra cost and time input associated with ZG were recognized as key challenges. The majority of respondents rated current technical information available on ZG in the Republic of Ireland as "poor" or "very poor," and knowledge deficits were identified in the areas of cost analysis, grass management and productivity, cow productivity, cow health and nutrition, and soil fertility.

Manipulation of the pre-partum diet of dairy cows to promote early adaptation to perennial ryegrass herbage

The diet of dairy cows in Ireland traditionally changes abruptly from predominantly pasture silage before calving to grazed perennial ryegrass immediately after calving. This potentially leads to problems with adaptation of microbes in the rumen with consequences of reduced intake and ultimately lower milk production. This experiment aimed to determine if introducing first-lactation dairy cows to perennial ryegrass herbage in the final weeks of pregnancy, thus eliminating a major dietary change at calving, could improve the adaptation process, potentially increasing dry matter intake (DMI) and milk production in early lactation. Three weeks prior to their expected calving date, 14 spring calving dairy cows were assigned to one of two treatments (n = 7): pasture silage pre-partum and perennial ryegrass herbage post-partum, or perennial ryegrass herbage both pre- and post-partum. Treatment diets were fed for 11 (±7) d pre-partum and for 14 (±0) d post-partum. For both treatments, DMI increased post-partum, but there was no difference between treatments, pre- or post-partum (5.9 and 8.8 kg DM/cow per day, respectively). There were no differences in milk yield or composition between the treatments. Body condition score declined following parturition but there were no differences between treatments. Plasma non-esterified fatty acids, glucose and β-hydroxybutyrate were also unaffected by treatment but did indicate a state of negative energy balance in early lactation. The results of this experiment suggest that pre-partum adaptation to perennial ryegrass herbage would not benefit milk production in first-lactation dairy cows in early lactation in Irish dairy farms employing this system.

Exploring farmers’ decisions to engage in grass measurement on dairy farms in Ireland

ABSTRACT Purpose Employing a theoretical model of human behaviour (COM-B), the current study explores the factors influencing farmers’ engagement with grass measurement on Irish dairy farms. Methodology The current study employed a qualitative research design. One-to-one semi-structured interviews were carried out with 21 dairy farmers. Findings Factors inhibiting farmers from engaging in grass measurement included a high perceived task effort, a lack of skill and self-efficacy to carry out the task, uncertainty over personal value of engagement, a lack of tangible support, and a confidence in, and preference for, existing intuition-based decision-making. Practical implications Recommendations for communication, extension, education and technology development are offered to tackle the ‘high task effort’ associated with grass measurement by farmers and to support skill development and self-efficacy of dairy farmers. Theoretical implications The study proves value in moving from behavioural frameworks which focus solely on individual constructs as ‘barriers to adoption’ towards using frameworks which also account for the important role of factors external to the individual such as their social and physical surroundings. Value A comprehensive theoretical framework is offered for understanding dairy farmers’ engagement with grass measurement along with evidence-based suggestions for communication, extension, education and technology development.

Willow coppice in intensive agricultural applications to reduce strain on the food-energy-water nexus

The focus of this study is to show that by understanding the food-energy-water nexus, potential unforeseen negative outcomes can be avoided in the pursuit of sustainable development. To do this, this paper uses a novel approach to compare a combined farm and short rotation coppice willow system, in which the willow was planted as a riparian buffer, with a food-only and an energy only system. The impact of each system was investigated through the lens of the food-energy-water nexus using life cycle assessment techniques. Data from previous research was adapted in order to quantify the impacts for a typical Irish dairy farm, which is indicative of intensive agriculture across Europe. On a typical Irish dairy farm, the implementation of a short rotation coppice willow riparian buffer strip could reduce total nitrogen and phosphorus leachate by 14% and 9% respectively. Total CO2eq emissions could be reduced by 16.5% if energy from the willow displaces fossil fuels, while the impact on milk production and profit is minimal. Thus, the use of short rotation coppice willow as a riparian buffer strip has the potential to reduce strain on the entire food-energy-water nexus. By considering the food-energy-water nexus, the negative impacts of the food-only and energy-only systems were also highlighted.The paper also shows how a better understanding of the food-energy-water nexus supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and could help ameliorate the impact of climate change on the food-energy-water ecosystem.

Irish dairy farmers' engagement with animal health surveillance services: Factors influencing sample submission

A high-quality animal health surveillance service is required to inform policy and decision-making in food-animal disease control, to substantiate claims regarding national animal health status and for the early detection of exotic or emerging diseases. In Ireland, the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine provides partially subsidized testing of farm animal samples and postmortem examinations to the Irish agriculture sector (farmers) at 6 regional veterinary laboratories (RVL) throughout the country. Diagnoses and data from these submissions are recorded and reported monthly and annually to enable animal health monitoring and disease surveillance. In a passive surveillance model, both the veterinary practitioner and the farmer play a vital role in sample submission by determining which cases are sent to the laboratory for postmortem or diagnostic testing. This paper identified factors influencing Irish dairy farmers' decisions to submit carcasses to RVL. Behavioral determinants of the submission of samples where veterinary professionals are concerned has been studied previously; however, limited work has studied determinants among farmers. This study conducted qualitative analyses of decisions of Irish dairy farmers relevant to diagnostic sample submission to an RVL and to examine the herd-level characteristics of farmers that submitted cases to an RVL. The biographical narrative interpretive method was used to interview 5 case-study farmers who were classified nonsubmitters, medium, or high submitters to the postmortem service based on the proportion of on-farm mortalities submitted to the laboratory service in 2016. The data obtained from these interviews were supplemented and triangulated through dairy farmer focus groups. The data were thematically analyzed and described qualitatively. In addition, quantitative analysis was undertaken. Data for herds within the catchment area of a central RVL were extracted, and a multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to examine the relationship between herds from which carcasses were submitted to the laboratory and those from which none were submitted. Results from the analysis show that the farmer's veterinary practitioner was the primary influence on submission of carcasses to the laboratory. Similarly, the type of incident, logistical issues with transporting carcasses to the laboratory, influence of peers, presence of alternative private laboratories, and a fear of government involvement were key factors emerging from the case-study interview and focus group data. Herd size was identified in both the qualitative and quantitative analysis as a factor determining submission. In the logistic regression model, herd size and increased levels of expansion were positively correlated with the odds of submission, whereas distance from the laboratory was negatively associated with odds of submission. These results identify the main factors influencing the use of diagnostic services for surveillance of animal health, signaling how services may be made more attractive by policy makers to a potentially wider cohort of users.

Competitiveness of Polish dairy farms in the European Union

This article analyses the competitiveness of dairy farms in Poland in relation to selected EU countries. The competitive advantage of dairy farms was evaluated and compared based on remuneration for family labour. Two variants of the above indicator were calculated: (1) Remuneration for family labour (FL1) as the relationship between farm net income and the farmer’s unpaid labour input, and (2) Remuneration for family labour (FL2) as the relationship between farm net income minus the opportunity costs of own land and capital to the farmer’s unpaid labour input. The calculations were performed based on EU FADN (European Union Farm Accountancy Data Network) data for an average dairy farm in 2005, 2010 and 2016. The study revealed the highest average remuneration for family labour (FL1) in Irish and German dairy farms. The value of the second indicator (FL2) was also highest in Germany, followed by France. The analysis produced interesting results regarding dairy farms in Denmark and the Netherlands which were characterised by the highest scale of production in the evaluated period (high net value added), but very low farm incomes and remuneration for family labour. The study revealed that Polish dairy farms were characterised by average competitiveness relative.

The factors influencing the profitability of leased land on dairy farms in Ireland

The Republic of Ireland possesses a land market that is constrained by minimal sales each year, less than 1%. In an effort to capitalise on milk quota abolition and to increase dairy production, a suite of tax incentives has recently been introduced in the Republic of Ireland to encourage land mobility and long-term leasing among Irish dairy farmers. Using Irish Farm Accountancy Database Network (FADN) data from 2011–2017 to examine this, a Heckman sample selection model explores two aspects; (i) the factors that influence a farmer’s decision to rent, or continue renting, land and (ii) the profitability of dairy farmers renting in land. We find self-selection into the rental market is driven by farm traits that include a high level of hired labour, the presence of a successor, intensive farming practices and dairy discussion group membership. The results show that rental agreements assist farms in achieving economies of scale. The findings provide evidence to support government intervention such as tax incentives for renting out land and knowledge sharing discussion groups.

Economic and Environmental Analysis of Small-Scale Anaerobic Digestion Plants on Irish Dairy Farms

The European Union’s (EU) climate and energy package requires all EU countries to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% by 2020. Based on current trends, Ireland is on track to miss this target with a projected reduction of only 5% to 6%. The agriculture sector has consistently been the single largest contributor to Irish GHG emissions, representing 33% of all emissions in 2017. Small-scale anaerobic digestion (SSAD) holds promise as an attractive technology for the treatment of livestock manure and the organic fraction of municipal wastes, especially in low population communities or standalone waste treatment facilities. This study assesses the viability of SSAD in Ireland, by modelling the technical, economic, and environmental considerations of operating such plants on commercial Irish dairy farms. The study examines the integration of SSAD on dairy farms with various herd sizes ranging from 50 to 250 dairy cows, with co-digestion afforded by grass grown on available land. Results demonstrate feedstock quantities available on-farm to be sufficient to meet the farm’s energy needs with surplus energy exported, representing between 73% and 79% of the total energy generated. All scenarios investigated demonstrate a net CO2 reduction ranging between 2059–173,237 kg CO2-eq. yr−1. The study found SSAD systems to be profitable within the plant’s lifespan on farms with dairy herds sizes of >100 cows (with payback periods of 8–13 years). The simulated introduction of capital subvention grants similar to other EU countries was seen to significantly lower the plant payback periods. The insights generated from this study show SSAD to be an economically sustainable method for the mitigation of GHG emissions in the Irish agriculture sector.

Can technology help achieve sustainable intensification? Evidence from milk recording on Irish dairy farms

This article explores the potential of a farm technology to simultaneously improve farm efficiency and provide wider environmental and social benefits. Identifying these ‘win-win-win’ strategies and encouraging their widespread adoption is critical to achieve sustainable intensification. Using a nationally representative sample of 296 Irish dairy farms from 2015, propensity score matching is applied to measure the impact of milk recording on a broad set of farm sustainability indicators. The findings reveal that the technology enhances economic sustainability by increasing dairy gross margin and milk yield per cow. Furthermore, social sustainability is improved through a reduction in milk bulk tank somatic cell count (an indicator of animal health and welfare status). Conversely, milk recording (as it is currently implemented) does not impact farm environmental sustainability, represented by greenhouse gas emission efficiency. While the study shows that milk recording is a ‘win-win’ strategy, ways of improving current levels of utilisation are discussed so that milk recording achieves its ‘win-win-win’ potential in the future.

‘Good’ farm management employment: Emerging values in the contemporary Irish dairy sector

The number of Irish dairy farms with herds greater than 100 cows has increased from 4.5 % in 2005 to 23 % in 2016. The abolition of the dairy quota in 2015 has led to predictions that this trend will continue and that an additional 6000 people will be required to work on dairy farms by 2025. Ownership of farms is esteemed, with farm employment perceived as a poor second option, so it is necessary to identify possible routes towards creating 'good' farm employment relationships. This paper explores the social, cultural and economic values of employers and employees in the context of early experiences of farm employment in post-quota Ireland. Using narrative analysis, this study found that employees gained esteem and pride from acquiring managerial responsibilities and receiving recognition for their abilities and accomplishments from their employers. Greater social recognition of employ’ abilities by peer groups and in networks (social capital) cemented ‘good employee’ status. Employers, in a context of unprecedented dairy production expansion, emphasised the need for and demonstrated changing of power structures to open up the farm to new forms of influence. However, employers’ reflexivity in support of employment relationships was undermined overall by what the management literature calls a weak ‘rewards system’ for employees. Without the supportive scaffolding of a formalised rewards system, relational gestures of responsibility-devolution and employ’ appreciation of employees may be insufficient to sustain quality farm management employment in the long term. Inevitably, this diminishes the attractiveness of farm employment, limiting the drawing of talent not only into farm employment but into associated capacity-building programmes.

The Irish dairy industry – Recent history and strategy, current state and future challenges

This study explores drivers and resulting changes in the structure and technical efficiency of Irish dairy farms from 2005 to 2018 (covering pre‐ and post‐milk quotas) during which milk production increased by 54%. Over this period, farm structure changed dramatically (fourfold increase in farmers milking >100 cows) and farmers improved technical efficiency and profitability and reduced the greenhouse gas emission intensity of milk produced. The impact of the adoption of key technologies at farm level and the contribution of strategic direction nationally (the Irish Government's Food Harvest 2020 Strategy) influencing this development are explored as are future sector challenges.

Measuring total factor productivity on Irish dairy farms: a Fisher index approach using farm-level data

This paper presents a Fisher index measure of the total factor productivity (TFP) performance of Irish dairy farms over the period 2006–2016 using the Teagasc National Farm Survey (NFS) data. The removal of milk quotas in 2015 has led to an increase of over 30% in dairy cow numbers since 2010, and although suckler cow numbers have dropped slightly, the total number of cows in Ireland reached an all-time high of 2.5 million head in 2016. This large increase adds to the environmental pressures attributed to agricultural output and puts the focus firmly on how efficiently the additional agricultural output associated with higher cow numbers is produced. The primary purpose of this paper is to identify a standardised measure of the TFP performance of Irish dairy farms that can be routinely updated using Teagasc NFS data. We found that relative to 2010 the TFP of Irish dairy farms has increased by almost 18%; however, in one production year 2015, when milk quota was removed, the TFP measure increased by 7% and TFP continued to grow by 2.5% in the production year 2016. It would seem therefore that the removal of the European dairy quota system has resulted in a windfall gain for Irish dairy farmers but that productivity gains are continuing. Future data will be required to investigate the longer-term TFP performance of Irish dairy farms in the post-milk quota era.

Pre-weaning management of calves on commercial dairy farms and its influence on calf welfare and mortality

Welfare and management of calves is of increasing interest and also influences performance of these animals in later life. The aim of this study was to assess management and environmental conditions under which pre-weaned dairy calves are reared on commercial Irish dairy farms. We included 47 spring-calving, pasture-based herds in this study. Herd and animal-specific data, such as mortality rate, age and breed, were gathered from all participants via the HerdPlus® database. Information pertaining to management practices was collected by conducting an interview with the principal calf rearer, while an assessment of calf housing facilities was conducted to identify conditions calves were reared in. The environmental assessment included measurements of space allowance per calf, as well as feeding equipment hygiene. To assess calf behaviour video observations were used, while accounting for the number of calves present in a group and the space available per calf. Faecal samples were also collected to determine the presence of enteric pathogens among calves. To compare calf space allowance, group size and presence of enteric pathogens early and late in the calving season each farm was visited twice. Calf mortality was not associated with either herd size, space allowance per calf or post-colostrum feeding practices. Higher calf mortality was identified among herds which reported experiencing an on-set of calf pneumonia during weeks 8 to 10 of the calving season. This study demonstrates that factors associated with calf welfare on commercial Irish dairy farms (e.g. space allowance, mortality rate) are independent of herd size. Some management practices however, such as methods used for treating health issues can affect rates of calf mortality experienced. Calf mortality, for example, was lower in herds which treated diarrhoea cases by administering electrolytes, while continuing to offer milk. Behavioural observations indicate that smaller group sizes could promote expression of positive behaviours, potentially resulting from an overall improvement in welfare. Space allowance per calf was not associated with observed behaviour frequencies. We also identified that similar rates of calf mortality are experienced across herds of different sizes.

Short communication: Effect of feeding pooled and nonpooled high-quality colostrum on passive transfer of immunity, morbidity, and mortality in dairy calves

Pooling colostrum is commonly practiced on Irish dairy farms. Pooling can result in dilution when colostrums with high and low IgG concentrations are mixed, thereby predisposing calves to failure of passive immunity. The objectives of this study were to compare IgG concentrations in colostrum from individual cows with colostrum pooled from several cows, and assess serum IgG concentrations, morbidity, and mortality among calves fed colostrum from their own dam, from a different cow, or pooled from several cows. We hypothesized that pooling colostrum reduces IgG concentration due to dilution compared with colostrum from individual cows, and that calves fed pooled colostrum achieve lower serum IgG concentrations than calves fed colostrum from individual cows. Calves were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 groups: (1) fed colostrum from their own dam (n = 20); (2) fed colostrum from a different dam (n = 20); or (3) fed pooled colostrum (n = 18). A sample of colostrum fed to each calf was collected. Serum samples were collected from calves at birth (0 h) and at 24 h after colostrum feeding. Colostrum and serum IgG concentrations were measured by radial immunodiffusion. Calves were weighed at birth and at weaning, and the health status of each calf was assessed twice daily. Health assessment was based on general demeanor, rectal temperature, fecal consistency, respiratory rate, and the presence of cough, nasal, or ocular discharge. Colostrum and serum IgG concentrations, and weaning weights were compared using ANOVA. Associations between group and morbidity or mortality rates were compared using χ2 or Fisher's exact tests. Median and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of IgG concentrations of colostrum were 99.4 (81.8-111.5), 95.2 (84.1-107.2), and 100.7 (90.5-104.4) g/L for own dam, different dam, and pooled groups, respectively. We did not find any differences in colostrum IgG concentrations among the colostrum sources. Median (95% CI) serum IgG concentrations at 24 h were 52.0 (45.6-65.9), 55.7 (51.2-65.9), and 53.1 (46.2-63.7) g/L for calves that received colostrum from own dam, different dam, and pooled, respectively. All calves achieved adequate passive immunity. Serum IgG concentrations at 24 h, weaning weights, and proportions of morbidity and mortality were not different among the 3 groups. Our results suggest that on dairy farms where median colostrum IgG concentrations are high and colostrum management is optimal, pooling has a minimal effect on passive immunity and subsequent calf health.

Using machine learning to estimate herbage production and nutrient uptake on Irish dairy farms

Nutrient management on grazed grasslands is of critical importance to maintain productivity levels, as grass is the cheapest feed for ruminants and underpins these meat and milk production systems. Many attempts have been made to model the relationships between controllable (crop and soil fertility management) and noncontrollable influencing factors (weather, soil drainage) and nutrient/productivity levels. However, to the best of our knowledge not much research has been performed on modeling the interconnections between the influencing factors on one hand and nutrient uptake/herbage production on the other hand, by using data-driven modeling techniques. Our paper proposes to use predictive clustering trees (PCT) learned for building models on data from dairy farms in the Republic of Ireland. The PCT models show good accuracy in estimating herbage production and nutrient uptake. They are also interpretable and are found to embody knowledge that is in accordance with existing theoretical understanding of the task at hand. Moreover, if we combine more PCT into an ensemble of PCT (random forest of PCT), we can achieve improved accuracy of the estimates. In practical terms, the number of grazings, which is related proportionally with soil drainage class, is one of the most important factors that moderates the herbage production potential and nutrient uptake. Furthermore, we found the nutrient (N, P, and K) uptake and herbage nutrient concentration to be conservative in fields that had medium yield potential (11 t of dry matter per hectare on average), whereas nutrient uptake was more variable and potentially limiting in fields that had higher and lower herbage production. Our models also show that phosphorus is the most limiting nutrient for herbage production across the fields on these Irish dairy farms, followed by nitrogen and potassium.

Assessment of policy conflict using systems thinking: A case study of carbon footprint reduction on Irish dairy farms

The dairy sector in Ireland is in potential conflict with environmental regulations due to the abolition of European Union dairy quotas and domestic agricultural expansion policy. The ‘Dairy Carbon Navigator’ aims to help Irish farmers reduce the carbon footprint of their milk and enhance economic viability by suggesting actions that could be taken to reduce carbon footprint. The tool is a national solution to Ireland’s contribution to the global problem of climate change and food production. It was designed to drive a decrease in net global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit milk produced but may conflict with legislation and policy designed to reduce total national emissions. The aim of this work was to assess the feasibility of taking a systems thinking approach to identify areas of policy conflict, using carbon footprint reduction on Irish dairy farms as a case study. This was done by developing a causal loop diagram (CLD), which reflected a typical Irish dairy farm. The causal loop diagram was used to show the direction of change in farm level impact caused by implementing the Dairy Carbon Navigator recommendations. This was used to identify potential conflicts between farm management changes and the achievement of the EU Effort Sharing Decision (regulating GHG emissions), National Emissions Ceiling Directive (regulating some GHG emissions and acidification) and the Water Framework and Nitrates Directives (regulating eutrophication). It was found that extending the grazing season would increase absolute greenhouse gas emissions and absolute eutrophication but decrease carbon footprint. Increasing total herd intake per unit milk would also increase absolute impact. However, across all recommendations, reductions in carbon footprint, acidification and eutrophication per unit milk solids was predicted, due to increased efficiency. These results reflected the rising emissions detailed in the most recent national inventory report and reported decline in water quality, threatening the current overall good status of Irish waterbodies. The qualitative methods used to develop the CLD may introduce bias, but this was moderated by using workshops with interested parties. However, the main benefit of the approach was the identification of the differences between improving production efficiency (impact per unit output) and absolute mitigation of environmental impacts (decrease in national inventory). Systems thinking facilitates an interdisciplinary approach to policy evaluation from initiation to implementation, and highlights issues that may be overlooked when policy instruments are focused on a single factor.

An examination of the effects of labor efficiency on the profitability of grass-based, seasonal-calving dairy farms

The seasonality of grass-based, seasonal-calving dairy systems results in disproportionately higher labor demands during the spring, when cows are calving, than in the remaining seasons. This study aimed to (1) examine the relationship between labor efficiency and profitability; (2) investigate strategies to reduce the hours worked per day by the farmer, family, and farm staff in the spring by having certain tasks outsourced; and (3) quantify the economic implications of those strategies. Data from an existing labor efficiency study on Irish dairy farms were used in conjunction with economic performance data from the farms. Tasks that required the highest level of farm labor per day in the spring were identified and hypothetical strategies to reduce the farm hours worked per day were examined. A stochastic budgetary simulation model was then used to examine the economic implications of employing these strategies and the effects of their use in conjunction with a proportionate increase in cow numbers that would leave the hours worked per day unchanged. The strategies were to use contractors to perform calf rearing, machinery work, or milking. Contracting out milking resulted in the greatest reduction in hours worked per day (5.6 h/d) followed by calf rearing (2.7 h/d) and machinery work (2 h/d). Reducing the hours worked per day by removing those tasks had slight (i.e., <5%) negative effects on profitability; however, maintaining the farm hours worked per day while utilizing the same strategies and increasing herd sizes resulted in profitable options. The most profitable scenario was for farms to increase herd size while contracting out milking.

Ivermectin treatment failure on four Irish dairy farms

We report on the use of the faecal egg count reduction test to evaluate the performance of ivermectin in treating gastrointestinal nematode infections in first grazing season (FGS) calves on four dairy farms in Co. Kilkenny, Ireland. On each farm, FGS calves were injected subcutaneously with ivermectin in accordance with their live weight (day 0). Calves were individually faecal sampled on both day 0 and day 14. Faecal egg counts were determined using the Mini-FLOTAC technique. Composite faecal cultures for each farm were performed on each sampling occasion. The faecal egg count reductions (mode) ranged from 17.3–80.2% with the lower 95% confidence limit ranging from 3.1–72.3% on the four farms, respectively. Ivermectin-resistant nematodes were detected on all farms, with evidence of Ostertagia resistance on one farm. This study highlights the urgent need for Irish producers to reappraise their parasite control practices.

Annual electricity consumption prediction and future expansion analysis on dairy farms using a support vector machine

This study utilised a previously developed support vector machine (SVM) (trained using empirical data from 56 dairy farms) for predicting and analysing annual dairy farm electricity consumption to help improve the sustainability of the projected expansion of milk production in Ireland. Firstly, the capability of the SVM to predict annual electricity consumption was investigated at both a farm and catchment-level (combined consumption). Electricity consumption data were attained from 16 pasture-based, Irish dairy farms between June 2016 and May 2017 in conjunction with farm data related to herd size, milk production, infrastructural equipment and managerial tendencies, required to generate predictions using the SVM. The SVM predicted annual electricity consumption of dairy farms to within 10.4% (relative prediction error). Concurrently, catchment-level electricity consumption was predicted with an error value less than 5.0%. Secondly, an investigation was carried out to assess the impact of increasing herd size and milk production on dairy farm related electricity consumption at a catchment-level across ten hypothetical infrastructural scenarios. The dairy expansion analysis showed electricity economies of scale across all ten infrastructural scenarios. The greatest reduction in electricity consumption per litre was observed when all farms employed ground water for pre-cooling milk with two additional parlour units, reducing by 4% in 2018, relative to a base scenario (no change to infrastructural equipment). The results presented in this article demonstrate the potential effectiveness of the SVM as a macro-level simulation forecast tool for dairy farm electricity consumption that may be used to quantify the impact of milk production on electricity resources, or to offer decision support to dairy farmers.