Iraqi Economy Research Articles

Resilience and Reconstruction: Unraveling the Economic Trajectory of Iraq Post-2003

This study seeks to explain Iraq's economic trajectory after 2003, focusing on its potential to recover and reconstruct. The challenge is understanding how Iraq's political and historical conditions after the 2003 US invasion have affected its economy. The report examines post-conflict reconstruction in Iraq and its economy. This study examined economic figures, government legislation, and scholarly works. We analyse economic statistics and current trends in Iraq to assess its economic recovery. The analysis found that Iraq's economy has been erratic since 2003. Oil production, infrastructure construction, and foreign investment have survived the conflict. Rehabilitation efforts were crucial to economic recovery. The findings prompted several recommendations. To maintain effective economic management, ongoing investment in physical infrastructure, diversification away from oil, promoting a business-friendly climate, and fortifying existing institutions are needed. This analysis illuminates Iraq's economic trajectory after 2003, showcasing its resilience and recovery efforts. Policymakers and anyone interested in Iraq's economic development and stability may benefit from the results and recommendations.

Role of Commercial Banks in Stimulating Investments Amid Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Iraq

When it comes to boosting the economy, development, and allocation of financial resources from accessible savings to be employed in all economic sectors (industrial, agricultural, and service), commercial banks in developing and Arab countries are seen as one of the tools. Foreign and domestic investment play critical roles in the economies of both established and developing nations by providing much-needed capital, allowing for the more efficient use of available natural and human resources, and allowing for the more rapid adoption of cutting-edge technologies. Investment success depends on the presence of institutions and capacities of a developed financial and banking type. The significance of this study can be seen in how it examines the reality of commercial banks and their function in promoting and activating domestic and international investment in the context of exchange rate fluctuations, taking into account the financial resources and financial surpluses that commercial banks have available to them to lend money and credit to promote local investment. The banking system, including commercial banks, suffers from challenges since the eighties and nineties of the last century due to wars and the effects of the economic blockade, up to the after 2003 political and security events, in addition to accumulations in banking laws and regulations that did not contribute to the development of the banking sector in Iraq. Also, commercial banks did not contribute effectively to financing investment, and this is evident from the low level of funding for local investments. In addition, the structural imbalances in the Iraqi economy, the deterioration of infrastructure, and the repercussions of Corona led to the reluctance of investors to invest in Iraq. The investment environment available in Iraq is a suitable environment for investment and provides capacity. However, the political and security challenges facing the country and the administrative and financial corruption in most parts of the state have negatively affected the volume of investments in a way that is not commensurate with the volume of available natural and human resources and available investment opportunities. The most important conclusions of this research were as follows

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Gross Domestic Product as One of the Indicators of Economic Development in Iraq Between 2004-2020

Fiscal policy is a major part of economic policy and a tool for implementing the government's economic policy toward achieving the set goals. This is done through its main tools (public expenditures, revenues, and the net budget). This is to raise economic growth rates, achieve economic well-being, and satisfy the desires of society. The study shed light on the most important developments in fiscal policy in the Iraqi economy and its impact on economic development. On this basis, the researcher seeks to clarify the role of fiscal policy in Iraq (2004-2020) through its tools in achieving economic development and how to use them to achieve these indicators. Moreover, a statement of the efficiency of fiscal policy and its management towards the economic and social fields to ensure the advancement of the goals and indicators of economic development. Therefore, it must be used optimally and planned. Moreover, what Iraq went through in terms of political and financial crises, especially after 2003, prevented the use of this policy optimally, which led to a decline in the performance of fiscal policy in order to achieve economic development. The study reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which was the direct correlation of the GDP indicator with the oil sector and the low percentage of tax revenue contribution to the total public revenues throughout the study period due to rampant corruption and inflexibility of the tax system. While the results showed no long-term relationship between public expenditures and the GDP indicator due to the decline in investment spending, this is offset by an increase in operational spending due to the large employment in government departments and the deterioration of the security situation. At the same time, the study recommended working to increase the volume of public revenues by developing plans to diversify revenue sources, especially in the non-oil (commodity) sectors, in a way that increases the size of the general budget and working on an annual evaluation of fiscal policy tools and their effectiveness in achieving economic development in Iraq.

Spatial analysis of vegetation using GIS and remote sensing data

The agricultural sector is one of the most important sectors in Iraq, as it supports the Iraqi economy and provides food security for people in Baghdad. Nevertheless, this sector is suffering from a remarkable decrease in agricultural production. Therefore, there is a high need for the assessment of the agricultural cover in the last decades to provide a comprehensive view of the changes in this sector. The research focuses on the spatial analysis of spatial and urban cover using GIS, remote sensing data, and the NDVI indicator in three periods of time (2001, 2011, and 2021). The results of the study showed a decrease in the area of vegetation cover for the year 2011 for most of the counties while the area of vegetation cover increased in the study area in 2021 in comparison with 2011 due to the impact of the water resources factor and the share of each county. In 2001, the percentage of vegetation cover was 37% of the study area while it was 23% in 2011 and increased to 32% in 2021. This research supports the decision-makers and planners by providing the amount and spatial distribution of the vegetation cover.

The Impact of Global Oil Price Fluctuations on Economic Growth in Iraq by using VAR Model

In this research economic growth is one of the concepts that developed and developing countries alike have been taken into account. This research touched on the most important components of the Iraqi oil sector. The role of this sector and the extent of its contribution to the gross domestic product, which is denominated in US dollars according to a base year 2010. Therefore, it became necessary to clarify the concept of economic growth. Thus, it became necessary for Iraq to maximize the rates of economic growth, which was closely linked to the oil sector, which has become the only sector that feeds the rest of the sectors. The researcher adopted a set of standard formulas to demonstrate the impact of oil price fluctuations on Iraqi economic growth, and concluded that: Vector Auto Regression model (VAR) is the model adopted for the data of the variables of the Iraqi economy. After conducting an estimation, it was discovered that the linear formula produced the best results and had the highest value for the determination coefficient, and that the Cranger causality test revealed the existence of a statistically significant reciprocal relationship between the variables considered for the period 1970-2015.

The Impact of the Iraqi Stock Market on the Growth of Real Sectors in the Iraqi Economy for the Period (1992-2020)

The Impact of the Iraqi Stock Market on the Growth of Real Sectors in the Iraqi Economy for the Period (1992-2020)

Evaluating the overall performance of the Iraqi economy using the evolution of kaldor's magic square variables during the period 1990-2019

تسعى البلدان المتقدمة والنامية على حد سواء الى تحقيق مجموعة من الأهداف الاقتصادية الرئيسة من خلال رسم الخطط والاستراتيجيات التي تحدد المسار الاقتصادي للدولة في إطار السياسات الاقتصادية الكلية لذلك فان عملية تقييم واقع الاقتصاد الكلي والوقوف على مدى تحقق هذه الأهداف يعد من الأهمية بمكان لذلك ستحاول هذه الدراسة تقييم الواقع الاقتصادي العراقي خلال المدة 1990-2019 من خلال الية التمثيل البياني الذي اقترحتها الاكاديمية الفرنسية (فيرساي) بالاعتماد على فكرة المربع السحري الذي جاء بها الاقتصادي نيكولاس كالدور من خلال تحديد أربعة مؤشرات أساسية للتقييم، وانطلاقاً من فرضية مفادها ( ان تقييم الواقع الفعلي لأهداف مربع كالدور في العراق يبتعد كثيراً لاسيما لبعض اهدافه عن الحالة المثلى للمربع المذكور).
 وللتحقق من هذه الفرضية فقد تم تقسيم البحث إلى مبحثين، تناول الأول التأصيل النظري لفكرة مربع كالدور من حيث المفهوم والاهداف، اما الثاني فقد تناول تقييم واقع متغيرات مربع كالدور في الاقتصاد العراقي.
 وجاءت نتائج الدراسة مؤكدة للفرضية الموضوعة اذ اثبتت انحراف مؤشرات مربع كالدور عن الحالة المثالية ، فيما اوصت الدراسة بضرورة أن يتم العمل على تنويع الاقتصاد العراقي والاهتمام بزيادة مصادر الدخل والتمويل وتنويعها، وعدم الاعتماد على مصدر دخل واحد (قطاع النفط) الذي من شأنه ان يجعل الاقتصاد العراقي أسيراً لتقلبات أسعاره والأزمات الداخلية والخارجية ، ويتم ذلك من خلال التنسيق بين السياسات الاقتصادية في إيجاد هذه المصادر وخاصةً الاستثمارات المحلية والأجنبية من أجل معالجة الاختلالات الهيكلية وبناء قاعدة استثمارية رصينة تدعم القطاعات الانتاجية وترفع من آليات انتقال أثار السياسات الاقتصادية لتحسين وضع مؤشرات الاقتصاد الكلي.

Measuring the Impact of Oil Revenues on Iraq’s GDP for the Duration (2005-2020)

The oil sector has an important role in the Iraqi economy represented by its revenues, as oil exports constitute about 96% of the total exports on all macroeconomic variables, including national income, gross domestic product, foreign trade, investments in all its forms and its determination of economic development trends that depend on fluctuations in international oil prices in addition to the unexpected factors such as external shocks. Oil exports play an important role in the structure of foreign trade in oil countries, including Iraq, which faces many challenges that hinder the process of economic development, represented by the lack of capital prepared for investment and the lack of domestic savings. The controversy of the study lies in knowing whether the oil revenues contributed to increasing the gross domestic product and financing the general budget, that is, improving economic growth rates or not. The research aims primarily to achieve the validity of the hypothesis by shedding light on the reality of the oil sector in Iraq, the material, moral capabilities, and oil privileges to clarify the impact of the oil sector and its role in improving economic growth rates. Then, the research relied on the inductive approach in order to reach the objectives of the research by identifying the concept of the oil sector and its impact on achieving desirable economic growth rates using the standard quantitative method in measuring the impact of the oil sector on the gross domestic product in Iraq using the (Eview9) program. The benchmark indicates that the relationship between oil revenues and GDP is a direct relationship, and oil revenues are the main source for generating national income and GDP, as Iraq directly depends on oil revenues and thus the validity of the hypothesis was proven through the analytical side and the standard side, as oil revenues plays a major role in increasing the gross domestic product and thus improving the rate of economic growth.

The Impact of Coronavirus Pandemic on the Iraqi Economy

Purpose: The research aims to study the impact of the Corona pandemic on the Iraqi economy and its effect on the various economic sectors, especially after the succession of political crises (October demonstrations and the government's fall). Theoretical framework: The Corona pandemic has left many problems, and consequences beyond the spread of the disease, the most important of which is the almost complete halt in economic life, resulting in the significant decline in various commercial activities, the severance of global supply chains, the collapse of financial markets, the suspension of global trade movement, and the rise in unemployment rates that included the entire developed and developing world, and Iraq is one of them. It caused a worldwide recession. Third, it forced the government to adjust several economic sectors to the economic, financial, and health crises. Design/methodology/approach: The study examines covid-19's influence on Iraq's economy. The article analyzes external debt and economic factors for 2004-2021 and interprets economic development indicators for Iraq for 2004-2021 using an economic model. Findings: The study concluded that the Corona pandemic had more impact on Iraq than other countries due to the conditions that occurred before Corona, from the demonstrations, which were due to the political and economic situation in the country and poor services, and then the impact of the collapse in global oil prices due to the decrease in global demand for oil, which led to a reduction in public revenues to a third, which hindered the government's ability to present the draft budget for the year 2020. Research, Practical & Social implications: we Focus on the banking sector's recovery after the pandemic, this paper provides a unique and critical discussion of the knowledge gap between the economic sciences and the public's awareness of the topic, as well as its implications for the recovery of various economic sectors in Iraq following COVID-19. Originality/value: This article discusses the gap between economic science knowledge and public awareness and its consequences for the revival of several economic sectors in Iraq following COVID-19, emphasizing the banking sector.

Assessment of the Financial Sustainability of External Debt in Iraq: an Econometric Analysis

Purpose: This paper aims to study the possibility of external debt achieving financial sustainability by learning the most important economic variables affected by external debt and possible scenarios to achieve financial sustainability. Theoretical framework: The sustainability of external debt is one of the critical issues in economies, especially emerging ones. Establishing structural projects, infrastructure projects, and economic investment is one of the essential factors in achieving financial sustainability. However, Iraq has resorted to external borrowing to confront the economic, political, and security crises represented by the drop in global oil prices. Design/methodology/approach: The research seeks to explore developments related to Iraq's foreign debt and analyze developments related to financial sustainability in the Iraqi economy. To achieve the research goal, the paper uses an analytical approach by analyzing external debt and economic variables for the period 2004-2021 and interpreting indicators of external debt and financial sustainability in Iraq for the period 2004-2021 using the econometric model. Findings: The results show that the external debt is not optimally exploited and directed towards consumer spending and imported goods. A few of them are towards projects with low income, which led to the lack of real financial sustainability in the Iraqi economy. Furthermore, the increase in reliance on public borrowing to finance the budget deficit led to a rise in the internal debt, especially in 2020, which means an increase in financial obligations on the state not only abroad but also internally, which made the revenue structure burdened with financial commitments internally and externally, as well as not directing domestic savings to contribute In building the economy and working on its consumption, which prevented the achievement of financial sustainability. Research, Practical & Social implications: This paper contributes to the search for an alternative standard model capable of effectively explaining the financial sustainability of the external debt in Iraq. Originality/value: This is one of the first papers that examine the possibility of achieving the financial sustainability of external debt in Iraq using the econometric approach.

Government Spending between the Instability of Returns and Exchange Rate Variables, An Analytical Study in Iraq (2010-2020)

The study addresses the most important problems the Iraqi economy faces, the irregularity in the spending process and its irregularity during the fiscal year. Also, government units sought to spend all the public funds allocated to them before the end of the fiscal year regardless of the specific objectives. In the spending process, the public spending is done only to spend and not to achieve specific goals. The exchange rate’s contribution to achieving internal and external balance, and despite the variation of many factors affecting it, there is a broad consensus on the effectiveness of the spending role and the currency window in the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, especially in the Iraqi economy. This is because the increase in government spending increases the supply of cash, domestic demand, prices, and consequently inflation, which negatively affect the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar. So the central bank intervenes through the currency window to stabilize the exchange rate of the local currency 2010-2020). To establish the roadmap, the researcher clarified the aforementioned relationship. The government spending negatively affects the value of the Iraqi dinar because of the increase in the money supply and inflation from the increase in public spending. This is to sterilize the money supply by absorbing the surplus cash (the Iraqi dinar) by supplying more foreign currency to maintain the value of the Iraqi dinar. The local currency exchange rate rise affected the decrease in inflation significantly.

دور الشركات المحدودة بشخص واحد في تطوير الاقتصاد العراقي (دراسة مقارنة)


 The role of companies limited to one person in the development of the Iraqi economy - a comparative study

The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Monetary Stability in Iraq for the Period (1990-2020)

Oil prices and revenues are important in economic activity because the rentier Iraqi economy relies on oil revenues to finance public expenditures and achieve economic and monetary stability. this study investigates the impact of oil price changes on monetary stability in the Iraqi economy from 1990 to 2020. using the co integration methodology and the )FMOLS, DOLS( model, This is achieved to measure the impact of changing oil prices on the exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate. The study concluded that changes in oil prices had a negative impact on the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and contributed to an increase in inflation rates, but had a positive impact on interest rates; that is, oil prices did not contribute to achieving monetary stability.As a result, economic diversification and the search for new financial resources outside of the oil sector are critical for Iraq to achieve eco nomic and monetary stability.

The Repercussions of Oil Price Fluctuations on Iraqs Gross Domestic Product Analytical Study for the Period between 2000-2019

From the results obtained with regard to the fluctuations in oil prices, there is a significant impact of oil prices on the overall economy, expressed in gross domestic product, as in a case like Iraq, the rise in oil prices leads to an increase in export earnings, and thus an increase in the volume of foreign trade, and when oil prices rise, the This leads to an increase in the flow of foreign currency represented in the US dollar to the national economy, and this causes a high rate of inflation on the one hand and an increase in the demand for imports on the other hand, which leads to an expansion in government spending, and high oil prices encourage investment (especially in the sector). Based on the statistical results and the conclusions reached, it is noted that the price of oil has a significant impact on the gross domestic product as the most important overall indicator of the Iraqi economy, which makes the latter hostage to its behavior in the global oil market. Finally, it should be noted that the uncertainty surrounding the oil market, which made it difficult to predict oil prices, has become necessary for the economic authorities in Iraq to: We take the issue of searching for new financial resources outside the oil sector seriously, so the study recommends the need to expedite the adoption of a policy aimed at reducing dependence on oil revenues in the national economy, and strive to diversify non-fuel exports, and support the pillars of the national economy to mitigate the effects of the external shock.

Monetary Policy and its Role in Attracting Foreign Direct Investment: A Study in the Iraqi Economy for the Period (2004-2018)

The aim of the research is to identify the performance of some variables related to monetary policy and foreign direct investment, as well as to identify the impact of monetary policy variables on foreign direct investment through the use of the descriptive analytical method as well as the quantitative approach. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is the most important variable to improve capital formation within the host country, which makes most countries exert their utmost efforts to attract foreign direct investment, as this study attempts to know the impact of some monetary policy variables and their role in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) in Iraq. To achieve this goal, a time series extending from 2004-2018 was used through the use of the standard model on the statistical program E-views10 and by conducting tests for both induction (Extended Dickey Fuller (ADF) as well as Phillips-Peron test (PP)) and clarification of the integration relationship; the joint and using the boundary test methodology between the monetary policy variables (the exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the interest rate) and foreign direct investment and estimating the relationship within the short term using the Autoregressive Distributed Deceleration Model (ARDL), as well as knowing the causal relationship between the independent research variables and the dependent variable (FDI). It was concluded through the results presented by the tests that there is a negative and positive impact of some of the monetary policy indicators that were used, and the positive impact is on the two indicators of interest rate and inflation rate, as their impact on foreign direct investment in the Iraqi economy (1.485) and ( 0.18414) respectively, and the negative impact is for the exchange rate index, as its impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Iraq was (-0.00024). During the Kranger causal test, the results confirm the absence of a causal relationship between the research variables in Iraq's foreign direct.

Analyzing and Measuring the Impact of Customs Taxes on the Gross Domestic Product in Iraq for the Period (2004–2021)

The research aims to measure the impact of customs taxes on the gross domestic product in the Iraqi economy. The research covers data for a period of time, 2004-2021, and for measurement purposes, the annual data was converted into quarterly data using the (eviews10) program. The data for both variables are at the original level of the data, and it has settled at the first difference according to the Dick-Fuller method. For this reason, the Johansen method was used to estimate the co-integration in the long term. In the greatest value test, there was no integrative relationship in the long term, and these two variables were referred back according to the logic of the economic theory, and their behavior can be observed through the graph of the data of the two variables. It is known that the relationship between the two variables is a positive relationship. Positive between customs taxes and GDP, that is, the higher the customs taxes, the higher the levels of the gross domestic product, in addition to a set of recommendations, most notably working to activate the customs tax law in order to supplement the general budget with more financial resources.

Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of the Exchange Rate Change on Some MMacroeconomic Variables in Iraq for the Period (1990-2021)

One of the economic variables used in economic policies to achieve economic stability is the exchange rate. The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of changes in exchange rates of the Iraqi dinar on Some macroeconomic variables during the period (1990-2021). The study used a descriptive and analytical approach based on time series data, employing models (DLOS, FMOLS, CCR, ARDL) to prove the impact of the exchange rate on GDP, inflation rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and Iraqi exports. Finally, the study concluded that there is a positive relationship between the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and GDP, implying that the exchange rate provides for economic growth and that there is a negative relationship between the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and the rate of inflation in Iraq, implying that the exchange rate aids in the reduction of inflation rates in Iraq. Furthermore, the exchange rate had no effect on unemployment rates, i.e., the change in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar had no effect on reducing the percentage of people who are unemployed. The econometrics analysis also found that the impact of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate in Iraq was negative and did not contribute to an increase in total exports, which is consistent with the reality of the Iraqi economy because foreign trade in Iraq suffers from a major structural imbalance represented by the control of crude oil as a raw material on more than (٪95) of its exports, so oil prices are unaffected by the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar. According to the study, one of the most essential ways to achieve genuine exchange rate stability and increase the link between the exchange rate and macroeconomic variables is to pursue an economic diversification policy.

The Distributional Effects of Change the Exchange Ratein Iraq Economic During the Period (1990-2020)

The exchange rate is one of the economic foreign currencies used in economic policies. Since exchange rate fluctuations affect most monetary, financial, and real variables, The purpose of this study is to examine the distributional impacts of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate over time (1990-2020).To achieve this goal, the research relied on the descriptive and analytical approach that depends on time series data, and the use of a system of simultaneous equations using the two-stage least squares model (2SLS). To show the mutual effects of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate, GDP, investment spending, and consumer spending, Finally, the study came to several conclusions, including that there is a positive relationship between the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and GDP, that is, economic growth, Furthermore, there is a negative relationship between the Iraqi dinar exchange rate and consumer spending (poverty ratio) and investment spending. These findings are consistent with the reality of the Iraqi economy, which is reliant on oil exports (in dollars) to fund various imports (in dollars). According to the study, one of the most important means of achieving stability in the exchange rate exchange and strengthening the relationship between the exchange rate and economic variables is economic diversification policy.

Assessing the Quality Control Implementation in Iraqi Construction Projects and the Use of BIM to Control the Quality of Construction

The construction business regards as one of the most important industries in Iraq, contributing significantly to the Iraqi economy. The purpose of this research to assessing the quality of execution in engineering projects (in the public and private sectors) that based on the level of quality of execution control assessment. Construction project management is responsible for quality control in Iraqi construction projects, as well as how far the use of modern Technologies such as building information modeling (BIM) to regulate the quality of implementation. This study was carried out accreditation, and the descriptive-analytical technique was applied by distributing questionnaires via a field survey. In addition, the SPSS program was used in order to process the collected data 60 questionnaires were distributed to contractors and engineering offices. 50 useful questionnaires were received from respondents with an 83% response rate. The study found that the construction projects in Iraq still suffer from weaknesses in the quality control of construction projects as well as poor Construction Project Management Responsibilities of quality control and that BIM is still not utilized to implement quality in Iraqi construction projects.

Analyzing the Relationship between Financial Depth and Economic Growth in Iraq during the Period (2004-2020)

The research aims to study the relationship between financial depth and economic growth in Iraq during the period (2004-2020) by identifying the direction of each of the indicators of financial depth and economic growth, analyzing their developments, and measuring them using the ARDL model. Given that financial depth is an important indicator that shows the extent of the financial sector's contribution to economic activity by mobilizing savings and directing them towards investment to achieve added value from the activity of the various economic sectors. The research found the limited contribution of the financial sector in stimulating economic growth due to several subjective and objective factors that characterize the financial sector in the Iraqi economy.