Longitudinal data obtained 6 months apart from 132 urban African American adolescents, 9 through 15 years of age, were analyzed to assess the stability and predictability of behaviors, intentions, and perceptions regarding drug trafficking. Drug trafficking behaviors, intentions, and perceptions were relatively stable over time. Although rates of drug trafficking were low (7%o), about two-thirds of the youth involved at baseline were still involved 6 months later Males were more likely to be involved than females. Previous involvement was the best predictor for subsequent behavior and intention. Baseline intention was not predictive of subsequent behavior but was predictive of subsequent intention. Perceptions, particularly those regarding extrinsic rewards and response costs of drug trafficking, were predictive of subsequent behavior and intention. The youth appeared to differentiate between drug selling and drug delivering. These results represent the first longitudinal description of the natural history of involvement in drug trafficking from a community-based cohort.
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