Investment Scenarios Research Articles

The Future Potential and Prospects of SAARC Regional Grouping: A Study

The renewed and reinvigorated engagement of India with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) over the past few years has been one of the significant factors leading to the gradual and irreversible transition of the regional organisation from a declaratory phase to one of implementation (Bhagwati, 2008). The new growth momentum in the South Asian region and its increasing openness encourages a fresh look at the economic integration of the region. In this context, the study examines the opportunities and commodity potential of trade between India and the SAARC countries by adopting a variety of trade indices of export intensity index and import intensity index along with Gini coefficient. The authors further study the commodity trade potential between India and the SAARC countries by adopting the revealed comparative advantage index and revealed import dependency index. The study concludes an increasing export intensity and import intensity of trade between India and the other SAARC member countries. Finally, the values of Gravity coefficient and commodity analysis find a high trade potential between them and the untapped trade and investment scenario that could be tapped by strengthening the regional block of SAARC.

Cloud-Based Booking Platforms in Warehouse Operations

This study evaluates the implementation costs of cloud-based booking platforms (CBBPs) to manage vehicle queues in warehouses and investigates how cloud-based booking platforms support inter-organizational logistics processes. To understand the impact of CBBPs, we interviewed logistics managers concerning the structure of the CBBP processes, salient platform features, and their effects on inter-organizational dynamics. In addition, we conducted an analytical modeling simulation to compute the economic impact of each investment scenario. Our results show that CBBP benefits, and their financial viability, are sensitive to the size of a company and the selected decision driver (cost vs. time optimization). Hence, our findings challenge the standard view that adopting digital technologies in inter-organizational settings is an easy task.

The Viability of Providing 24-Hour Electricity Access to Off-Grid Island Communities in the Philippines

Techno-economic viability assessments of rural electrification projects, especially those that integrate renewable energy technologies, typically look at system design optimization that would yield the most favorable cost and investment scenarios. However, the true viability of these projects relies more importantly on their impact to the rural communities while ensuring positive financial returns to the project developers. This paper aims to expand the viability assessment of electrification projects in off-grid island communities in order to mainly address the apparently opposing needs of the major stakeholders at play by developing a viability assessment framework considering the techno-economic dimensions as well as the socio-economic impacts to the consumers. The analysis follows a two-phase approach, where system design optimization and financial impact calculations are done in the first phase and the socio-economic viability is accomplished in the second phase. Results suggest that high capital investment for renewable energy has a better pay-off when there is higher demand for electricity. On the other hand, consumers also tend to receive higher economic benefit as they consume more electricity. However, the low income of rural consumers strains their capacity to pay, which necessitates their engagement in more economically-productive uses of electricity. The viability assessment framework can be a useful tool for both investors and consumers as this provides important insights which can be translated into impactful interventions that may include government support through improved policy implementation that can positively sustain electricity access in off-grid communities through renewable energy.

Study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the construction industry in Egypt

This paper attempts to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the construction industry under different investment and economic scenarios in Egypt. The survey was conducted to assess the cost impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on the construction industry, considering essential aspects, such as manpower, plant and machinery, and material, and their net effect on overall construction cost. The recommendations covered in this paper address many such measures under short, medium, and long-term categories. These measures underline the need to improve systems and processes for adequately responding to the current changing environment and effectively confronting such disruptions in the future. In addition, the paper serves as a start to thinking about the study of procedures during a future pandemic to inhibit any impact on the project timeline or personnel health.

Mortality Implications of Increased Active Mobility for a Proposed Regional Transportation Emission Cap-and-Invest Program

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The transportation sector is now the primary contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. The Transportation Climate Initiative (TCI), a partnership of 12 states and the District of Columbia currently under development, would implement a cap-and-invest program to reduce transportation sector emissions across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, including substantial investment in cycling and pedestrian infrastructure. The health impacts from investing in active mobility could be substantial. METHODS: Using outputs from an investment scenario model and the World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment Tool methodology, we estimate the mortality implications of increased active mobility and their monetized value for three different investment allocation scenarios considered by policymakers. We conduct these analyses for all 378 counties in the region, accounting for potential increased traffic fatalities. RESULTS:We find that even for the scenario with the smallest investment in active mobility, when it is fully implemented, the Transportation Climate Initiative could result in hundreds of fewer deaths per year across the region, with monetized benefits in the billions of dollars annually. Under all scenarios considered, the monetized benefits from deaths avoided substantially exceed the direct infrastructure costs of investment. These potential mortality benefits are like to be highly concentrated in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS:We conclude that investing proceeds in active mobility infrastructure is a cost-effective way of reducing mortality, especially in urban areas, providing a strong motivation for investment in modernization of the transportation system and further evidence of the health co-benefits of climate action. KEYWORDS: physical activity, transportation, active mobility, urban policy

INVESTMENT AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL PERSPECTIVE ON KUWAIT’S DUAL CHALLENGE DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BEYOND

Endogenous economic growth theories have pointed to private investment as one of the determinants of long run, sustainable economic growth; a well-studied relationship in the development economics literature, both theoretically and empirically. One of the main reasons the Kuwaiti economy has not achieved its aspired degree of economic diversification over decades, is the relatively low level of private investment, which has eventuated in a relatively small private sector, partly due to an unimproved investment ecosystem. Like other economies, investment in Kuwait is a robust growth driver especially as a policy tool to achieve a digital, knowledge-based economy that leapfrogs on innovative technological investments, as ambitiously strategized by the Kuwait Vision 2035. The eruption of the coronavirus pandemic and the deep recession it triggered is likely to become a major hurdle in the way of spurring sufficient quality investments. With contracted GDP and collapsed oil prices, export and fiscal revenues shrink substantially, reducing investment activity and hence negatively affecting investment. This paper focuses on the role of private investment as a function of sustainable economic growth. Specifically, this paper aims to delineate the relationship between investment and economic growth in Kuwait by outlining; the determinants and impediments of investment, investment trends and behavior, innovative models of investment in Kuwait and applying a set of seven simulation-based scenarios of investment modelled as autoregressive distributed lags. By so doing, the paper elucidates the impact of critical variables including; non-oil GDP growth, interest rates management, attracting and fostering FDI inflows, as well as the recession plagued fiscal and trade balances, in order to estimate the magnitude and time-path of key policy variables on investment. The findings illustrate the rigidity of investment when recession drags GDP, FDI, exports and trade balances as well as fiscal revenues.Keywords: Oil Surplus Economy, Kuwait Vision 2035, Diversification, Coronavirus, Simulation, Autoregressive Lag ModeJEL Classifications: C1, C15, F, F01DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.11513

Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study

Mortality due to enteric infections is projected to increase because of global warming; however, the different temperature sensitivities of major enteric pathogens have not yet been considered in projections on a global scale. We aimed to project global temperature-attributable enteric infection mortality under various future scenarios of sociodemographic development and climate change. In this modelling study, we generated global projections in two stages. First, we forecasted baseline mortality from ten enteropathogens (non-typhoidal salmonella, Shigella, Campylobacter, cholera, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli, typhoid, rotavirus, norovirus, and Cryptosporidium) under several future sociodemographic development and health investment scenarios (ie, pessimistic, intermediate, and optimistic). We then estimated the mortality change from baseline attributable to global warming using the product of projected annual temperature anomalies and pathogen-specific temperature sensitivities. We estimated that in the period 2080-95, the global mean number of temperature-attributable deaths due to enteric infections could be as low as 6599 (95% empirical CI 5441-7757) under the optimistic sociodemographic development and climate change scenario, or as high as 83 888 (67 760-100 015) under the pessimistic scenario. Most of the projected temperature-attributable deaths were from shigellosis, cryptosporidiosis, and typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Considerable reductions in the number of attributable deaths were from viral infections, such as rotaviral and noroviral enteritis, which resulted in net reductions in attributable enteric infection mortality under optimistic scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific. Temperature-attributable mortality could increase under warmer climate and unfavourable sociodemographic conditions. Mitigation policies for limiting global warming and sociodemographic development policies for low-income and middle-income countries might help reduce mortality from enteric infections in the future. Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan Science and Technology Agency, and Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness.

The growth of the country’s economic security level based on the investment infrastructure development projects

The article is dedicated to the question of providing investment development of the national infrastructure and adherence to the economic security level growth conditions. The authors determined the role of investments and the project orders in the development of the national infrastructure and formation of the national reforms investment support policy. While conducting the research, they built a model of investment interest simulation and scenarios of investors’ behavior, and analyzed the application of Monte Carlo technique regarding the investment projects. They developed a procedure model of Monte Carlo technique use for assessment of the investment projects at the given level of economic security. They generalized the methodological approaches to the practical application of Monte Carlo technique and method of historic simulations in assessment and minimizing the risks of the investment projects, which are carried out in the infrastructure industry of the country’s economy. The researchers studied the peculiarities of application of Monte Carlo technique and simulations method during the assessment and minimizing the risks of investment projects in coordinates of economic security. They offered conceptual foundations of probability and statistical assessment of the investment projects risks concerning the country’s infrastructure development in the given interval of economic security. They determined and provided a step-by-step order for calculating the expected cost NVP of investment projects within the national economic space and coordinates of economic security.

How to achieve the first step of the carbon-neutrality 2060 target in China: The coal substitution perspective

Nowadays, coal consumption is still dominated in China's energy structure, while China aggressively wants to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060. The substitution of coal consumption will be the first step to the goal. This paper simulates the scenarios of coal resource tax and investment in renewables by applying China Energy-Environment-Economy Analysis (CEEEA/CGE) model. The simulation results show the different mechanisms between the tax and the investment. In general, the impact of coal resource tax comes relatively early and is an effective way to reduce coal consumption in the short term. Renewable energy investment is a long-term, slow, and fundamental way to substitute coal consumption. However, for a long time, renewable energy should be the main driving force of carbon emission reduction. Consequently, we suggest that the process of coal substitution can be carried out through the way of “tax priority in the early stage and investment in the later stage”.

Preferences for community renewable energy investments in Europe

This paper presents the results of a choice experiment for investments in community renewable energy (CRE) projects administered across 31 European nations. In the sample of 18,037 respondents, a high level of interest in the CRE investments is observed, with 79% of respondents choosing to invest in at least one of the eight investment scenarios shown to them. Along with financial concerns, operational and siting aspects of the investment options are highly relevant to potential investors. Specifically, investments that are administered as an energy cooperative and run by a community organization are preferred to investments administered by utility companies. Heterogeneity across Europe is present in the preference for the installation to be visible from an investor's home, and thereby potentially affect the viewshed but also allow for a perception of self-sufficiency. The results suggest that energy policies hoping to increase the uptake of the CRE model across Europe would do well to focus on supporting local organizations to administer such projects, and to highlight any positive local economic impacts from renewable generation projects to potential investors.

Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market and Gold Returns in India

The spread of COVID-19 has caused severe damage to human lives and the global economy. The stock markets around the world have plummeted to their lowest levels since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This paper attempts to examine the joint dynamics of gold and stock market returns during unprecedented times of health and financial shock due to COVID-19 between January 2020 and May 2020 using granger test, ARMA model, and symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models to improve the understanding of the microstructure of investment scenario in India. The period considered in the study helps to evaluate the impact of lockdown due to coronavirus on Gold and Nifty index return. Results based on GARCH and E-GARCH models indicate a significant negative impact of gold on nifty returns during the sample period. The results also indicate investors' perception of gold as a safe-haven asset during periods of elevated uncertainty. Thus, the study is expected to enhance the understanding of market asymmetry, the behavior of investors towards these avenues of investments, and information processing.

Strengthening health systems to improve the value of tuberculosis diagnostics in South Africa: A cost and cost-effectiveness analysis.

In South Africa, replacing smear microscopy with Xpert-MTB/RIF (Xpert) for tuberculosis diagnosis did not reduce mortality and was cost-neutral. The unchanged mortality has been attributed to suboptimal Xpert implementation. We developed a mathematical model to explore how complementary investments may improve cost-effectiveness of the tuberculosis diagnostic algorithm. Complementary investments in the tuberculosis diagnostic pathway were compared to the status quo. Investment scenarios following an initial Xpert test included actions to reduce pre-treatment loss-to-follow-up; supporting same-day clinical diagnosis of tuberculosis after a negative result; and improving access to further tuberculosis diagnostic tests following a negative result. We estimated costs, deaths and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) averted from provider and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses explored the mediating influence of behavioural, disease- and organisational characteristics on investment effectiveness. Among a cohort of symptomatic patients tested for tuberculosis, with an estimated active tuberculosis prevalence of 13%, reducing pre-treatment loss-to-follow-up from ~20% to ~0% led to a 4% (uncertainty interval [UI] 3; 4%) reduction in mortality compared to the Xpert scenario. Improving access to further tuberculosis diagnostic tests from ~4% to 90% among those with an initial negative Xpert result reduced overall mortality by 28% (UI 27; 28) at $39.70/ DALY averted. Effectiveness of investment scenarios to improve access to further diagnostic tests was dependent on a high return rate for follow-up visits. Investing in direct and indirect costs to support the TB diagnostic pathway is potentially highly cost-effective.

Algorithm for Selecting Best Available Techniques in Polish Coking Plants Supporting Multi-Criteria Investment Decisions in European Environmental Conditions

The tightened approach of the European Commission to the issue of meeting the levels of pollutant emissions to the environment, inextricably connected with the level of technology used, is a serious financial challenge for many European coke producers, therefore the main aim of the article is to develop an algorithm of conduct that allows a selection of the best available emission abatement techniques from the coking plant in conditions with multiple emission sources, taking into account technological, environmental, and economic criteria. This algorithm can be used as a universal tool supporting production managers in planning investments limiting the environmental impact of the coking plant in the most economically advantageous way, while using BAT techniques. In the development of the algorithm, a multi-criteria analysis and a scenario method were used, as well as a number of typical methods for measuring and reducing the level of emissions in the coke production process. Its demonstration and verification were carried out within ten investment scenarios prepared for a selected coking plant. The presented method of selecting the optimal scenario is universal and allows for a flexible selection of weights for the criteria depending on the needs and limits of the investor at a given time or to long term plans to adapt to the increasingly tightening environmental requirements. This method can also be used in discussions with the authorities issuing integrated permits as regards the deadlines for adapting to legal requirements.

Analysis of the potential for PV rooftop prosumer production: Technical, economic and environmental assessment for the city of Valencia (Spain)

Cities are expected to be protagonists of the energy transition and, among other challenges, the decarbonation of the residential consumption could greatly benefit from photovoltaic generation in the built environment. To assess its potential, the present study analyses the possibility to cover the electric demand of the city of Valencia with rooftop-installed PV panels. Specific types of buildings has been selected to study the potential of each one of them with respect to their demand and with a specific production/consumption model. The total potential energy production for the city of Valencia is estimated to be enough to satisfy the demand of domestic electricity. The economic investment scenario has been analysed (best- and worst-case scenarios), and the corresponding environmental benefits have been studied. The results of the present article are encouraging in the context of a global energy transition, necessary in the present times to keep human consumption within the planetary limits.

Using efficiency frontier to inform operational decision-making

In this study, we introduce Efficiency Frontier, an economic assessment framework for business operations. The proposed framework emphasizes efficiency and sustainability. It aims to help organizations translate a complex metric system into a value index, conduct performance evaluation, and determine efficient resource planning strategies. Unlike the traditional methods that majorly focus on the achievement of performance targets, the proposed framework also accounts for the amount of resource that is invested in the achievement, which encourages managers to implement sustainable strategies that aim for long-term success. To validate the new framework, we systematically study the case of the City of Chicago’s 311 contact center with a base case analysis and a sensitivity analysis. In the base case, an Efficiency Frontier architected by a set of efficient solutions from 2013 to 2016 is used to identify outperforming scenarios given resource constraints. In the sensitivity analysis, we demonstrate the application of Efficiency Frontier in determining optimal resource planning strategies in conservative, moderate, and aggressive business investment scenarios. The base case Efficiency Frontier reveals that the marginal return on investment in improving the performance may diminish as investment increases. The sensitivity study suggests that optimal resource planning strategies should be adjusted according to value propositions. This work builds a framework for business leaders to economically assess their operational decision-making.Article highlightsEfficient strategies can be identified by exploring the maximum value increase per unit of resource given cost scenariosThe fund of a strategy should be reduced when the marginal return of the strategy begins to diminish.The framework’s ability to suggest cost-saving strategies is especially informative in resource-limited settings.

A target-driven decision-making multi-layered approach for optimal building retrofits via agglomerative hierarchical clustering: A case study in China

The optimization of energy, environmental and economic (3E) outcomes is the principal approach to identifying retrofit solutions for a sustainable built environment. By applying this approach and defining a set energy performance target, this study proposes a makeshift decision framework that integrates a data mining procedure (agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC)) into the decision-making process to provide a simplified 3E assessment of building retrofits on a macro-scale. The framework comprises of three model layers: (1) a building stock aggregation model, (2) an individualistic 3E model that provides the sensitivity analysis for (3) a life cycle cost-environmental assessment model. The framework is demonstrated and validated with a case study aimed at achieving the set energy targets for low-rise office buildings (LOB) in Shanghai. The model defines 4 prototypical buildings for the existing LOB blocks, which are used for the individual evaluation of 12 commonly applied retrofit measures. Subsequently, a simplified LCC-environmental assessment was performed to evaluate the 3E prospects of 2048 possible retrofit combinations. The results uniquely identify retrofit solutions to attain the set energy performance targets and optimal building performance. Furthermore, the decision criteria for different investment scenarios are discussed. Overall, this study provides building investors an innovative framework for a facile and holistic assessment of a broader range of retrofit alternatives based on set performance targets.

Valorizing Waste Derived Fuels for Climate Change Mitigation: Techno-Economic Comparison of CCS and CCU Approaches based on the Carbonate Looping Process

It is common understanding that a reduction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is undispensible. Furthermore, already emitted CO2 has to be removed from the atmosphere. To meet these objectives, novel processes must be developed and applied. Besides the utilization of renewable energy sources and a reduction of energy intensity, the application of carbon capture and storage/utilization (CCS/U) technologies is required. In a waste-to-energy (WtE) plant, the carbon contained in the waste is largely converted to CO2 and released to the environment. Thereby, heat and power are produced as valuable by-products of waste treatment. The carbon is partly of biogenic origin (e.g. wood and food waste) and of fossil origin (e.g. plastics derived from mineral oil). By separation, storage or utilization of the CO2 contained in the WtE plant flue gas, municipal solid waste (MSW) is utilized as a resource for clean energy and net negative CO2 emissions. The carbonate looping (CaL) process represents an efficient option for post-combustion CO2 capture from WtE plants. In this process, the heat for sorbent regeneration can be supplied by solid recovered fuels (SRF), which are sourced of pretreated MSW. Based on the results of experimental investigations in an SRF-fueled CaL pilot plant at 1 MWth scale, this study focuses on the techno-economic assessment and comparison of two valorization pathways for captured CO2, namely i) long term storage and ii) utilization to produce methanol. Key performance indicators (KPI) of the process chain, such as production costs of methanol and levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) are calculated and compared. Based on a steady-state process model for the CaL process, investment costs are determined according to a bottom-up approach for each component. Operational costs are derived from relevant material and product streams. The economic analysis takes various investment and operation scenarios into account to assess techno-economic characteristics in light of the future energy market. Factors such as negative emissions credits, low electricity cost, increased gate fees or plant size are considered.

Managing Tail Risk Part I: Option-Based Hedging

There is nothing like a market crash to focus the mind on the importance of risk management and, more specifically, tail risk management. Because tail events are generally systemic in nature and are characterised by elevated correlations and liquidity squeezes, effective tail risk management is not just a diversification exercise but rather requires explicit and specialised strategies. The natural question that arises then is how do you create an optimal tail risk management strategy? Most studies identify four categories of tail risk management strategy: option-based hedging, asset allocation, dynamic trading and defensive equity. Within each category, we then find a number of strategies available to investors for managing tail risk. Unfortunately, it remains an open question as to which strategy works best for a given investment scenario, or if there even exists a universally optimal strategy to begin with. We attempt to answer this question by analysing a range of commonly used tail risk management strategies in a South African market setting. However, given the breadth of the four available strategy categories, we split our research on this topic into two parts. In this Part I, we firstly examine and quantify the tail risk inherent in South African markets. This is done through a review the long-term history of equity and bond market drawdowns. Thereafter, we discuss nine core principles that are applicable to all candidate strategies and that define good tail risk management. Finally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of option-based tail hedging strategies. The concepts of defensive, offensive, active and indirect tail hedging are discussed at length and examples of each are implemented on historical market data.

Modeling the effects of irrigation management scenarios on winter wheat yield and water use indicators in response to climate variations and water delivery systems

Agriculture is the major user of the available fresh water resources at the global scale. However, water resources are negatively affected by climate change. Therefore, agricultural water management is globally considered as a key solution to address the current and future water resources challenges. In this study, a large number of recommended and probable scenarios of different deficit irrigations, climatic conditions and rainfall patterns, and sowing dates were defined and modeled under Rotational and On-demand irrigation scheduling (IS). For this purpose, the AquaCrop model that was calibrated and validated based on the observed data of 15 growing seasons was applied on winter wheat in a warm and semi-arid environment in the south-west of Iran. The AquaCrop model simulated grain yield accurately with normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 5% and 6% for calibration and validation, respectively. Analyses showed that the yield response factor in the different scenarios was higher than 1 in all climatic conditions that indicates high wheat sensitivity to water stress in the study area. Besides, analyzing the optimal irrigation plans for all possible climatic conditions and deficit irrigation levels showed that irrigation at the stem elongation stage was the most critical irrigation event. Further analysis also showed that November 8th − 22nd is the optimal window for achieving the highest grain yield in all climate conditions. Modeling showed that the Rotational IS is more adaptable to deficit irrigation practices due to maintaining higher grain yield and water productivity compared with the On-demand IS. Indeed, it is possible to maintain grain yield and increase water productivity by applying deficit irrigation up to 40% of full irrigation under Rotational IS. In conclusion, the results of this scenario-based modeling study showed that achieving the highest grain yield and water productivity in a large irrigation area depends on a combination of deficit irrigation scenarios and the water delivery systems in response to climatic variations. However, changing the water delivery systems from Rotational to On-demand requires expensive infrastructure investment and irrigation scenarios analysis before any decision.

Comparing The Economy-wide Impact of Omnibus Law: An Input-Output Analysis

As the Indonesian government issued Omnibus Law to increase investment inflow to Indonesia, this paper tries to figure out investment in what sector that can generate the highest outcome in terms of the macro, micro, and environmental impacts, such that the Indonesian government should prioritize this sector as the investment targeted sector. Three sectors are considered: manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and electricity and gas. Using an I-O model and a microsimulation model, this paper examines the macro, micro, and environmental impacts of each investment scenario. The results reveal that in the short-run, investment in the electricity and gas sector generates the highest macro impacts, while investment in the mining and quarrying sector is better in reducing poverty and inequality, although it has a bigger environmental impact.