Investment Credit Research Articles

Pengaruh Tenaga Kerja Terhadap Pembiayaan Kur Tahun 2019 di Pulau Jawa

This study aims to analyze the influence of labor on People's Business Credit (KUR) investment in Java Island in 2019. The analysis reveals that labor has a very small and insignificant impact on the amount of KUR investment. This is evidenced by a beta coefficient value of -0.003, which is close to zero, and a low correlation. In other words, the contribution of labor to the level of KUR investment is minimal. Although there is a weak positive relationship between labor and KUR investment, partial and part correlation tests indicate that the influence of labor is almost undetectable when other factors, such as KUR absorption, are considered. These findings suggest that labor is not a key variable in determining KUR investment levels in this region. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers to focus more on other significant factors that drive KUR investment growth, such as optimizing KUR fund absorption and improving access to capital for small and medium enterprises.

Analisis Faktor-Faktor Penyebab Inflasi di Indonesia Menggunakan Regresi Ridge, LASSO, dan Elastic-Net

<p>The economic condition of a country can be measured using one of the indicators, the inflation rate. Therefore, the inflation needs to be maintained so that its rate can be controlled. To support this, it is necessary to pay attention to several factors that influence the inflation rate. These factors include the amount of exports, imports, narrow money (M1), broad money (M2), the rupiah exchange rate against the USD, interest rates, rice prices in wholesale trade, farmer exchange rates (NTP), world crude oil prices, bank investment credit, GDP, and foreign exchange reserves. In this study, we analyze the significant factors influencing the inflation rate in Indonesia using the best model of the Ridge regression, LASSO regression, and Elastic-Net methods. In this modeling, the γ and λ values from the three methods are optimized first. The data used in this study consist of inflation data in Indonesia and its factors for 2020-2024, sourced from the BPS. Among the three high-dimensional data methods, the LASSO regression is the best method with the smallest MSE for modeling inflation data in Indonesia. The LASSO regression model produces 8 predictor variables that significantly influence inflation data, i.e., imports, M1, interest rates, and world crude oil prices with positive coefficient signs, as well as rice price variables in wholesale trade, NTP, GDP, and foreign exchange reserves with negative coefficient signs.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong><strong>: </strong>inflation; ridge regression; lasso regression; elastic-net.</p>

An Econometric Model of the Dependence of Economic Growth of GDP on a Group of Factors

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to summarize the theoretical results on economic growth and build a model of the relationship between economic growth of GDP and other factors. Theoretical basis: The conducted research reflects the change in various points of view of researchers explaining the relationship between economic growth and a number of groups of factors. Research theories Economic growth is a complex phenomenon and theories must take into account natural resources, political institutions, etc. through a variety of factors. Method: The methodology of the study is based on research on economic growth, employment, credit investment, nominal incomes of the population, budgetary and internal expenses for work and research. Data collection was carried out with the help of statistical materials from EU countries and Azerbaijan. The systematic method is used to analyze materials that ensure an increase in the country's GDP, employment, income, etc. Also, the calculation of the relationship of these indicators is carried out and refers to the country's policy in the context of combating unemployment. Results and discussion: The results reveal that 188 countries produce a small portion of global GDP. Based on the analysis of the EU countries with the highest real GDP growth rate, it was noted that the economic growth of each year does not correspond to the previous values. An econometric model of the relationship between economic growth of GDP and groups of factors selected for the study is constructed. Note that the model justifies itself in determining the dependence of GDP in any country on multinational factors. The model allows us to determine the form of impact reflecting the dependence of economic growth of GDP and groups of factors in any period. Research results: The results of the study can be applied in determining priority areas for the economy and maintaining its pace at an optimal level of the national economy. Originality/value: The research contributes to the development of the country's economy, thanks to the theoretical and practical results obtained. The relevance and value of the study are confirmed by the impact on the field of economics and the standard of living of the population.

Analysis of the Influence of Bank Credit on Economic Growth in West Nusa Tenggara Province

This research is motivated by the influence of banking credit on economic growth in NTB. The purpose is to analyze in depth the effect of bank lending consisting of investment loans, working capital loans and consumptive loans in NTB Province on the economic growth of NTB Province. The type of research used is descriptive quantitative. The type of data used in this study is time series data. The source of data used in this study is secondary data collected through documentation techniques, where data collection is done by studying some of the data contained in the archives, economic report documents, BPS NTB Province and Bank Indonesia from 2010 - 2023. Data analysis used is multiple linear regression. The results showed that investment credit and working capital credit partially had a positive and significant effect on economic growth in NTB, but consumptive credit showed that partially had no significant effect on economic growth in NTB. While simultaneously, the variables of investment credit, working capital credit and consumptive credit together have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in NTB.

Problems and challenges of development of Ukraine: investment and personnel aspect

In the conceptual and methodological sense, the article considers war as a force majeure factor, the action of which has multifaceted negative consequences in the form of increasing risks of physical destruction of human and material resources, deterioration of their quality parameters, in particular, the mental and physical state of health of the population. The magnitude and scope of the loss of national wealth as a result of the full-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine deepened the previously formed contradictions and asymmetries of a diverse nature in the economic system of our country. Socio-economic consequences are manifested in large-scale emigration, the appearance of forcibly displaced persons, a shortage of qualified labor, an asymmetry between demand and its supply in the domestic labor market, and a decrease in the number of jobs. Restoration of life-supporting objects of national wealth is considered as an objective prerequisite for the existence and victory of our state in this war. The article substantiates the leading role of state regulation in recovery by using a set of forms and methods of centralized influence on its organization and planning, presents the principles of participation of international partners in it. In the context of the leading role of the regulatory influence of the state on the reconstruction processes of Ukraine, the need for a systematic approach to solving the tactical and strategic tasks of restoring the economic potential of our country is substantiated. When developing and choosing a model for its restoration, priority should be given to the economic interests of domestic investors, employers, and workers. It was determined that its implementation allows to ensure the achievement of multifaceted positive results in the reconstruction of the economy of Ukraine. Objectively necessary prerequisites for the latter are the management of modernization processes by representatives of Ukrainian entrepreneurship, whose activities are based on the principles and principles of corporate social responsibility of business. In the conditions of war, this involves ensuring the functioning and development of enterprises located in the territory controlled by our state, employment of forcibly displaced persons, improvement of their welfare, compliance with laws and payment of all taxes, establishment of public-private partnership between socially responsible business and state institutions. Investing in rebuilding the economic potential of Ukraine is considered an objective phenomenon that is under the influence of state regulatory levers, the use of which is aimed at creating a favorable investment climate in the country. The negative impact on its state due to the lack of effective taxation, imperfection of land legislation, irrationality of the banking system, the absence of a national state credit investment company functionally aimed at identifying investment priorities with their technical and economic justification, control over the provision of benefits, the annexation of Crimea, the occupation of parts of the eastern oblasts and the conduct of military operations there, shelling of populated areas, which increases the likelihood of investment risks.

Sovereign CDS Spread and Term Structure Forecasting Based on Neural Network

The article aims to forecast credit risk for BRICS countries using daily credit default swaps (CDS) spreads obtained from Datastream data base from 2018 to 2023. Our approach consists, first, of forecasting the CDS spread in order to estimate the forecasted CDS term structure. The general regression neural network (GRNN) is used to predict the CDS spread. By checking the accuracy of the prediction, the results show that the GRNN model can be recommended as an effective forecasting tool for CDS spread. Second, the predicted spreads are used to estimate the forecasted CDS term structure using the Nelson–Siegel model. The results show that for Russia, overall, the CDS spreads in the long term are less than those in the short term, which implies that the future outlook is more optimistic, given the events that occurred during the study period, but it still retains the highest level of credit risk compared to other countries. Unlike Brazil, India and South Africa, the future outlook is more pessimistic. For China, the term structure is unstable; in the short term, there is a tendency to reduce the risk, but for longer horizons, the risk will increase. Thus, BRICS countries have different risk profiles depending on investment horizons. The study’s findings help policymakers in developing tailored risk management strategies for BRICS countries and guide investors in making informed credit investment decisions. The use of advanced forecasting tools like GRNN and Nelson–Siegel models emphasizes the importance of sophisticated techniques in enhancing financial market resilience.

Analysis of The Effect of Credit and Financial Technology on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5

Located at the center of a dynamic economic region, ASEAN-5 countries provide opportunities for each country to improve the socio-economic conditions of its people through developing infrastructure, communication networks, human mobility, and trade in goods and services. Through the provision of credit facilities, the banking sector participates in stimulating investment and economic development. Technological developments in the financial industry and financial technology also influence economic growth. This research measures banking credit service instruments such as third-party funds, investment credit, working capital credit, and financial technology as the level of success in measuring economic growth. This research is quantitative, the analysis technique in this research uses panel data regression to see the influence of the dependent variable on the independent variable. The finding shows that third-party funds, investment credit, and working capital credit significantly affect economic growth. Meanwhile, financial technology does not have a significant effect on economic growth.

Pengaruh Kredit Perbankan Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Hubungannya dengan Kesejahteraan Masyarakat

The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of banking credit on economic growth and social welfare. The type of research used in this research is secondary data, namely data in the form of numbers or quantitative time series. The findings in this research are that working capital credit has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, investment credit has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, and credit consumption has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. This means that if working capital credit, investment credit and consumption credit increase, economic growth will also increase. And if economic growth increases, it will encourage social prosperity.

Does Bank Credit Fluctuation Affect Inflation? Evidence from Indonesia

Both developed and developing nations frequently encounter the economic challenges of inflation. Middle- and low-income developing countries generally experience higher inflation rates than their high-income developed counterparts. Interest rates influence the relationship between credit distribution and inflation. This study examines how fluctuations in bank lending affect inflation in Indonesia. Monthly data from 2016 to 2023 were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The findings reveal that working capital loans significantly positively affect Indonesian inflation in both the short and long term. While investment credit shows no short-term impact on inflation, it significantly positively influences the long run. Consumptive credit exhibits a significant positive effect on inflation in the short term but a significant negative effect in the long term. The BI rate shows no short-term influence on inflation. However, it has a significantly negative impact in the long term. Based on these results, it is recommended that Bank Indonesia enhance its coordination of monetary stability, inflation control, and financial system improvements, particularly regarding interest rates. Additionally, banks acting as intermediaries should monitor the utilization of working capital, investments, and consumptive credit to help manage inflation in Indonesia.

Trade credit and corporate profitability: Evidence from EU‐based SMEs

AbstractThis study provides empirical evidence about the impact of granting trade credit to customers on the profitability of EU‐based SMEs over 2012–2019. Results show an inverted U‐shaped relationship between corporate performance and trade credit – proxied by receivables, meaning a positive relationship between creditors and customers for low levels and a negative relationship for high levels of trade credit. This evidence is concentrated on firms with less financial flexibility, for which any deviation from the maximum point of investment in trade credit represents a negative impact on its performance due to payment delay or even a default event. Results are robust to potential endogeneity issues.

Analisis Hukum Peran Bank Dalam Pembiayaan Proyek Infrastruktur di Indonesia

Infrastructure development in Indonesia can be a factor in the country's progress. because with adequate infrastructure, it can create economic growth and raise the quality of other sectors. Infrastructure development must be encouraged by various parties, one of which is banks. Banking has an important role in infrastructure development, because banks can help the government finance infrastructure projects by purchasing securities and through lending. The method used is normative legal research which focuses on laws and other policies related to the development and financing of infrastructure projects. As a result, in helping the government to finance infrastructure projects, banks provide products in the form of investment credit, syndicated credit, project financing, sharia financing and commercial credit. as the legal basis for financing infrastructure projects in Indonesia, Bank Indonesia issued and ratified PBI No. 23/7/PBI/2021 concerning Implementation of Payment System Infrastructure. With the large role of banks in financing infrastructure projects, it is hoped that they can support national development and encourage better growth in the infrastructure sector in the future. The government and banks need to continue to collaborate well in developing and improving a more effective and sustainable infrastructure project financing system, for the progress of the nation and state.

PEER-TO-PEER LENDING (P2P) AS DISRUPTIVE, BUT COMPLEMENTARY IN COVID-19 EXOGENOUS SHOCK

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of P2P lending on bank credit in each type/segment of banking credit consisting of working capital credit, investment credit, and consumer credit in the period before and during the occurrence of the Covid-19 exogenous shock. Examining the effect of P2P lending on various types of bank loans is important because there is no conclusive evidence of whether P2P lending substitutes or complements various conventional bank loans. The Covid-19 pandemic impairs the income of many people and accelerates the use of digital technology in most daily activities including banking. Due to economic contraction during the outbreak, the government requires banks to relax the loan covenants. Therefore, P2P lending that provides flexibility might complement bank loans during the Covid-19 pandemic. The test in this study uses panel regression and is carried out by separating the period before (July 2019–March 2020), and during (July 2020–March 2021) the Covid-19 pandemic. The results show that P2P lending was disruptive for bank loans before the pandemic and turned to be complementary during the pandemic, it might be due to P2P lending flexibility complementing the bank credit relaxation during the pandemic.

Dividend Taxation and Financial Business Cycles

We examine the interactions between different dividend tax systems and financial shocks in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an occasionally-binding investment credit limit. We show that dividend taxes largely determine the collateral value of assets, thereby occasionally distorting investment decisions and altering the propagation of financial shocks. Permanently lower dividend taxes dampen financially-driven business cycles in a state-contingent fashion. They also help explain substantial macroeconomic asymmetries following equally-sized expansionary and contractionary financial shocks.

Elasticity of Investment Financing Policy towards the Growth of Film Distribution Networks as an Effort to Redesign the Film Industry

This research aims to analyze the influence of investment financing policies on the growth of film distribution networks. Investment financing policy is seen from the aspect of setting investment credit interest rates in banking. Meanwhile, the growth of the film distribution network can be seen from the aspect of the number of cinema screens in Indonesia. This research uses several variables, such as: Investment Credit Interest Rates at Bank Persero, Regional Development Banks, National Private Banks and Foreign and Joint Venture Banks. The time range used in this research is from 2014 – 2022. This research uses quantitative methods using multiple linear regression. The explanation of the analysis results uses Keynes and Schumpeter’s theoretical approach. Based on the results of data analysis, it was concluded that the investment credit interest rate variable had a significant negative effect on the variable number of cinema screens, especially on the National Private Bank Investment Credit Interest Rate. The results of the coefficient of determination (adjusted R2) show that the influence of the number of cinema screens is 0.9492175. The higher the interest rate on investment credit, the lower the number of cinema screens.

Measuring the impact of information and communication technology investment on the profitability of Indian manufacturing MSME

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) investment on the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) profitability in the Indian context.Design/methodology/approachThis study used a framework based on the ICT investment and firm size, measuring the impact on profit before depreciation, interest, tax and amortisation of MSME by taking a random sampling of 300 Indian MSME manufacturing firm’s secondary data from the Prowess database. This framework was analysed using the design of experiment (DoE) technique.FindingsThe study showed that ICT investment has a significant positive relationship with profitability. This study examines the different ICT investment levels to predict investment strategies and fine-tune profit targets. The critical finding is that ICT investment maximises profit at one million rupees. This discovery aids MSME leaders’ sustainable business decision-making.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has an explicit limit to the Indian context, where the firm requirements of countries are different, and these findings need to be validated with many operating variables and applied to more firms with more data. Even so, as a theoretical implication, this study took a novel approach to ICT adoption (through ICT investment) in the Indian MSME sector with guiding levels of ICT investment for each type of firm (i.e. micro, small and medium). This study opens new avenues for investigating researchers and stakeholders by exploring other factors responsible for ICT adoption.Practical implicationsThis study uniquely provides practitioners with the functional level of ICT investment for MSMEs in the Indian context. These finding guides top management to make strategic ICT adoption decisions with information symmetry. At the same time, these findings suggest financial institutions astern their credit programme to provide credit for ICT investment in MSMEs.Social implicationsThis study highlights the value of ICT as a practical resource for business owners that significantly makes MSMEs more informed and profitable, thus creating more jobs and incrementing the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).Originality/valueThis study offers unique empirical findings on how decision makers in MSMEs maximise profits through optimal ICT investment levels depending upon the firm size in an emerging economy like India. There is evidence in the study to conclude that ICT is a need of MSME and has implications for firm performance.

Moral Hazard Versus Adverse Selection On The People’s Business Credit Program In Indonesia

This paper discusses the behavior of providing bank credit to SMEs during the people’s business credit (KUR) program in Indonesia. Since it was launched in 2007, the average NPL for these loans has increased. This indicates the existence of moral hazard behavior in lending by banks. To prove this indication, this paper implements a threshold regression model. Data covers 38 participating banks, which were observed during Q1-2008 to Q2-2021. The results of data analysis show that moral hazard behavior is indicated when NPL below or equal to 5.87%, on the contrary, experienced adverse selection. Specifically, moral hazard behavior is dominant in the case of investment credit and local government- owned banks. In working capital loans and others, this behavior also occurs, but not as in the case of investment loans. Moral hazard and adverse selection behavior were not detected at all in stateowned banks, while in private banks only occurred at a low level. At the end of the analysis, we also consider the shock effects of the global financial crisis (2008), European crisis (2009), and the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2021) on the threshold regression model, but the results are negative, thus strengthening our previous findings. In general, the factors that significantly determine the risk of non-performing loans in the people’s business credit program are the increase in credit growth, market share, deposit insurance interest rates, and economic growth as well as a decrease in the benchmark interest rate. However, the specifics are different, both in each type of credit and the type of participating bank.

Bank stability and robot adoption

ABSTRACT This paper argues that improving bank stability as measured by bank z-scores leads to greater adoption of automation technology. Empirical investigation finds that improving bank stability leads to greater adoption of robots across countries and over time. Instrumental Variable estimation corroborates the finding. Greater bank z-scores implies higher ability of a bank to absorb return variability without going insolvent, implying greater availability of credit for investment. Thereby, providing more finance to firms to invest in automation technology.

Securitization Of Ultra Micro Financing Asset In The Form Collective Investment Credit Of Asset-Backed Securities: Conceptual Design And Tax Implication In Indonesia

The Government's concern for a micro-based economy has materialized through the provision of Ultra Micro (UMi) Financing to Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) by the Government Investment Center Public Service Agency or Badan Layanan Umum Pusat Investasi Pemerintah (BLU PIP). UMi financing, as part of program credit, aims to promote self-reliance among micro-businesses that are not facilitated by the banking sector. However, limited capital from the APBN can hinder the desirability of this credit program. In order to leverage UMi financing hence it can be benefitted by more MSMEs beyond the capabilities of the APBN, the Government should diversify the funding sources for micro-businesses, not solely relying on the State Budget (APBN) but also incorporating funds from other sources. To realize this objective, the Government, through BLU PIP, can securit of receivables of Ultra Micro Financing in the form of Collective Investment Credit for Asset-Backed Securities (CIC-ABS). The objective of this research is to propose a conceptual design of CIC-ABS of UMi and examine tax implication of CIC-ABS of UMi in Indonesia. The question in this research is how to create a conceptual CIC-ABS UMi that is suitable for implementation and what are the tax implications in Indonesia. The contribution of this research is that it is pioneering concept of asset leveraging of MSME credits through Collective Investment Credit for Asset-Backed Securities (CIC-ABS) and tax implication in the unique context of Indonesia. The methodology used in this research includes the conceptual design of securitization and qualitative description to analyze tax implication of securitization of UMi's financing in the form of CIC-ABS in Indonesia. The conclusion that can be drawn from this research is that the UMi CIC-ABS conceptual design is suitable for implementation in Indonesia and tax implications are CIC-ABS of UMi subject to Corporate Income Tax at 25%, Originator incurs Corporate Income Tax on profits from the transfer, ABS Holders face varying tax treatments based on ABS class, and CIC-ABS of UMi is exempt from Value Added Tax (VAT).

The Impact of Digital Economy on Green Technology Innovation and Its Mechanism: Evidence from 274 Cities in China

ABSTRACT The digital economy is gradually emerging as a new driving force and engine for high-quality economic development. In the context of reaching carbon peak and carbon neutrality, can the digital economy empower the development of urban green technology innovation? Based on the panel data of 274 cities in China from 2011 to 2019, this paper measures the development level of digital economy at the city level and employs the two-way fixed effect model to empirically analyze the impact of digital economy on urban green technology innovation. The results indicate that: (1) Digital economy development exert a significant positive impact on urban green technology innovation. This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. (2) Digital economy enhances urban green technology innovation by optimizing human capital structure, enhancing the level of financial and credit investment, and strengthening public environmental concern. (3) Heterogeneity analyses show that the digital economy has a greater positive effect on green technology innovation in the eastern region and non-resource cities. The higher the level of intellectual property protection and the better the development of the factor market, and the lower the intensity of environmental regulation, the greater the positive effect of the digital economy on urban green technology innovation. These findings are not only of great practical significance for accelerating the development of green technology innovation in China, but also serve as a reference for other developing countries to utilize the digital economy to empower the development of green technology innovation.

Do the credits of the state-owned development and investment bank trigger sustainable economic development? Evidence of İller Bank for Turkey

This study aims to determine the effect of the İller Bank's credits on the sustainable economic development of Turkey between the 1981–2022 period. The study also employs the main analysis using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds model and robustness checks using the fully modified least square (FMOLS) and canonical cointegration analyses. ARDL model findings prove that the İller Bank's credits positively affect sustainable economic development indicators. Thus, governments should make the appropriate regulations to increase the investment credits for the growth of sustainable economic development and optimally enlarge the adaptive mechanism of credits by funding from the capital markets.