Investment Adjustment Costs Research Articles

Investment and Trade Patterns in a Sticky-Price, Open-Economy Model

This paper develops a tractable two-country DSGE model with sticky prices a la Calvo (1983) and local-currency pricing. We analyze the capital investment decision in the presence of adjustment costs of two types, the capital adjustment cost (CAC) specification and the investment adjustment cost (IAC) specification. We compare the investment and trade patterns with adjustment costs against those of a model without adjustment costs and with (quasi-) flexible prices. We show that having adjustment costs results into more volatile consumption and net exports, and less volatile investment. We document three important facts on U.S. trade: a) the S-shaped cross-correlation function between real GDP and the real net exports share, b) the J-curve between terms of trade and net exports, and c) the weak and S-shaped cross-correlation between real GDP and terms of trade. We find that adding adjustment costs tends to reduce the model's ability to match these stylized facts. Nominal rigidities cannot account for these features either.

The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky-Price Models: Does Investment Matter

This paper re-examines the ability of sticky-price models to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates. We use a DSGE framework with pricing to market to illustrate the link between real exchange rate dynamics and what the model assumes about physical capital. We show that adding capital accumulation to the model facilitates consumption smoothing and significantly impedes the model’s ability to generate volatile real exchange rates. Our analysis, therefore, caveats earlier work that has shown how real shocks in a sticky-price model without capital can replicate the observed real exchange rate dynamics. Finally, we find that so-called persistence anomaly remains robust to several alternative capital specifications including set-ups with variable capital utilisation and investment adjustment costs. In summary, the PPP puzzle is still very much alive and well.

(In)determinacy, increasing returns, and the optimality of the Friedman rule in an endogenously growing open economy

This paper sets up a monetary endogenous growth model with Benhabib–Farmer production externalities for an open economy, and then uses it to investigate the possibility of indeterminacy. Moreover, the paper examines how the monetary authorities will set its optimal anchor of the money growth rate from the viewpoint of welfare maximization. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, when investment does not involve adjustment costs, the monetary equilibrium is locally determinate regardless of the strength of the labor externality and the extent of world capital market imperfections. Second, in the presence of investment adjustment costs, the monetary equilibrium may exhibit indeterminacy when the aggregate increasing returns-to-scale in production is sufficiently strong. Third, in the presence of world capital market imperfections, the Friedman rule of a zero nominal interest rate fails to be optimal. Fourth, in the face of perfect world capital markets, the optimal nominal money growth rate is maintained at the rate that is conformable to the Friedman rule, regardless of whether investment involves adjustment costs or not.

Investment and Trade Patterns in a Sticky-Price, Open-Economy Model

This paper develops a tractable two-country DSGE model with sticky prices a la Calvo (1983) and local-currency pricing. We analyze the capital investment decision in the presence of adjustment costs of two types, the capital adjustment cost (CAC) specification and the investment adjustment cost (IAC) specification. We compare the investment and trade patterns with adjustment costs against those of a model without adjustment costs and with (quasi-) flexible prices. We show that having adjustment costs results into more volatile consumption and net exports, and less volatile investment. We document three important facts on U.S. trade: a) the S-shaped cross-correlation function between real GDP and the real net exports share, b) the J-curve between terms of trade and net exports, and c) the weak and S-shaped cross-correlation between real GDP and terms of trade. We find that adding adjustment costs tends to reduce the model's ability to match these stylized facts. Nominal rigidities cannot account for these features either.

Endogenous Equilibrium Growth with Recursive Preferences and Increasing Returns

This paper studies the short-run and long-run behavior of a competitive economy in which both the discount factor and technological change are endogenously determined. In particular, the effect of saving behavior on persistent economic growth is considered. The paper provides the sufficient condition on the rate of impatience and the concavity of private technology for uniqueness and local stability of the steady state in the competitive economy. The condition implies determinacy of transitional equilibrium paths. However, the paper also shows that the presence of externalities and adjustment cost of investment can lead to indeterminacy of steady state equilibra.

Refinements on macroeconomic modeling: The role of non-separability and heterogeneous labor supply

This paper proposes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model characterized by heterogenous labor schedules and non-separability between consumption and labor in the utility function. The model successfully describes output, consumption, investment, and interest rates after a monetary expansion. The proposed formulation improves on standard models by using preferences favored by the data and by requiring investment adjustment costs and habit formation parameters more in line with the micro-based evidence.

Estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Japan

We estimate a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Japanese economy following Christiano et al. [Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., Evans, C., 2005. Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy. J. Polit. Economy 113 (1), 1–45]. By using actual capital utilization data and modifying the formulation of utilization following Greenwood et al. [Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z., Huffmann, G.W., 1988. Investment, capacity utilization, and the real business cycle. Amer. Econ. Rev. 78 (3), 402–417], this paper succeeds in incorporating a negative correlation between capital utilization and rental costs to explain actual capital utilization rates. We find that an investment adjustment cost shock is as important as a productivity shock that affects business cycles. We also find hump-shaped and persistent behavior of inflation rates in response to a monetary policy shock, which Christiano et al. cast doubt upon. J. Japanese Int. Economies 22 (4) (2008) 476–502.

Investment Adjustment Costs: Evidence from UK and US Industries

This paper evaluates empirical evidence for costs which penalize changes in investment using UK and US industry data. In aggregate models, such costs have been introduced to help account for (i) the effects of monetary shocks on investment, (ii) the effects of fiscal shocks on hours, real wages, and output, and (iii) asset returns. Industry analysis, however, offers no support for investment adjustment costs in the UK and only weak support in the US. The results, therefore, suggest that it remains difficult to motivate and interpret the investment friction introduced in recent aggregate models from a disaggregated empirical perspective.

Le modèle d'équilibre général de la « Nouvelle synthèse » : quelles hypothèses retenir ?

This article has a twofold purpose. First, it describes the general-equilibrium model of the “ new synthesis ,” which has rapidly become a true benchmark for macroeconomic analysis in areas such as economic-policy simulation and inflation forecasting. Second, it seeks to identify the contribution of nominal and real rigidities to the good performance of this type of model, using the marginal-likelihood criterion and the inspection of moments of order two. The main results are as follows : (1) the combination of rigid and indexed prices and rigid wages is essential to the quality of the model’s fit to the data ; (2) the only hypotheses needed are habit formation for consumption and adjustment costs for investment, the second hypothesis being crucial for reproducing real and nominal dynamics ; (3) by introducing strategic complementarity, we can obtain a degree of nominal rigidity closer to that observed on macroeconomic data.

Modèles VAR ou DSGE : que choisir ?

L’objet de cet article est de comparer les performances relatives des modèles VAR et DSGE. Les modèles sont estimés par maximum de vraisemblance sur le taux de croissance de la productivité horaire du travail et les heures travaillées aux Etats-Unis pour la période 1959-2003. Nous montrons que les modèles DSGE, lorsqu’ils intègrent suffisamment de rigidités réelles (coûts d’ajustement sur l’investissement ou persistance des habitudes de loisir) ont des qualités prédictives au moins égales à celles d’un modèle VAR. Ces résultats empiriques suggèrent que, de par leur caractère structurel, les modèles DSGE doivent être préférés aux modèles VAR, notamment lorsqu’il s’agit d’identifier les chocs structurels et leurs effets sur la dynamique agrégée.

The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Does Investment Matter?

This paper re-examines the ability of sticky-price models to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates. We use a DSGE framework with pricing-to-market akin to those in Chari, et al. (2002) and Steinsson (2008) to illustrate the link between real exchange rate dynamics and what the model assumes about physical capital. We show that adding capital accumulation to the model facilitates consumption smoothing and significantly impedes the model's ability to generate volatile real exchange rates. Our analysis, therefore, caveats the results in Steinsson (2008) who shows how real shocks in a sticky-price model without capital can replicate the observed real exchange rate dynamics. Finally, we find that the CKM (2002) persistence anomaly remains robust to several alternative capital specifications including set-ups with variable capital utilization and investment adjustment costs (see, e.g., Christiano, et al., 2005). In summary, the PPP puzzle is still very much alive and well.

The Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models: Does Investment Matter?

This paper re-examines the ability of sticky-price models to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates. We use a DSGE framework with pricing-to-market akin to those in Chari et al. (2002) and Steinsson (2008) to illustrate the link between real exchange rate dynamics and what the model assumes about physical capital. We show that adding capital accumulation to the model facilitates consumption smoothing and significantly impedes the model’s ability to generate volatile real exchange rates. Our analysis, therefore, caveats the results in Steinsson (2008) who shows how real shocks in a sticky-price model without capital can replicate the observed real exchange rate dynamics. Finally, we find that the Chari et al. (2002) persistence anomaly remains robust to several alternative capital specifications including set-ups with variable capital utilization and investment adjustment costs (see, e.g., Christiano et al., 2005). In summary, the PPP puzzle is still very much alive and well. JEL Classification: F31, F41, F42

Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew-Dekel Preferences

In this paper we provide a thorough characterization of the asset returns impliedby a simple general equilibrium production economy with convex investment adjustment costs. When households have Epstein Zin preferences, there exist plausible parameter values such that the model generates unconditional mean risk free rate and equity return, and volatility of consumption growth, which are in line with historical averages for the US economy. Consistently with the data, the price dividend ratio is pro cyclical and stock returns are predictable (and increasingly so as the time horizon increases), while dividend growth is not. The model also implies realistic values for (i) the correlation of the risk free rate with output growth and consumption growth and (ii) the correlation pattern between risk free rate, equity return, and equity premium. The risk implied by the model is rather low. Given the work of Rabin (2000) among others, it is not surprising that our Epstein Zin agent exhibits a much higher risk aversion when faced with substantially larger risks. This shortcoming, however, does not extend to the case in which agents are disappointment averse in the sense of Gul (1991). When faced with a lottery that has a coefficient of variation 100 times as large as that implied by our model, a disappointment averse agent displays the same relative risk aversion as an expected utility agent with logarithmic utility!

Investment responses to Japanese tax reforms: A cross-industry comparison

This paper examines the investment responses to past Japanese tax reforms for individual industries. To identify the tax effect, this paper estimates investment functions by using a covariate of the change in tax-adjusted q caused by tax reform. This method alleviates the measurement error problem and enables the derivation of estimates indicating the valid adjustment cost of investment. Moreover, the findings suggest that firms’ investment responded significantly to tax reforms in the 1980s in general. Also, investments of only a few industries responded to those in the late 1990s, implying that the manner of investment response slightly differs among industries.

Asset Pricing in a General Equilibrium Production Economy With Chew-Dekel Risk Preferences

In this paper we provide a thorough characterization of the asset returns implied by a simple general equilibrium production economy with convex investment adjustment costs. When households have Epstein-Zin references, there exist plausible parameter values such that the model generates unconditional mean risk-free rate and equity return, and volatility of consumption growth, which are in line with historical averages for the US economy. Consistently with the data, the model's implied price-dividend ratio is pro-cyclical and stock returns are predictable (and increasingly so as the time horizon increases), while dividend growth is not. The model also implies realistic values for (i) the correlation of the risk-free rate with output growth and consumption growth and (ii) the correlation pattern between risk-free rate, equity return, and equity premium. The risk implied by the model is rather low. At the modal state of nature, an individual that expects to consume for 100,000 dollars a year faces a lottery over future consumption with a standard deviation of 55 dollars (per quarter). Her risk aversion is such that she's willing to pay 1 dollar (per quarter) in order to avoid that lottery. Very similar results can be obtained assuming that agents are disappointment averse in the sense of Gul. With such risk preferences, the universality requirement is not a problem to the extent that it is in the case of expected utility. In fact, faced with a lottery that has a coefficient of variation 100 times as large as that implied by our model, a disappointment averse agent displays the same relative risk aversion as an expected utility agent with logarithmic utility.

PRODUCTIVITY AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN JAPAN: EVIDENCE FROM JAPANESE INDUSTRY DATA*

Constructing a database of 37 industries, we examine whether the measured productivity in Japan is pro-cyclical and investigate the sources of this pro-cyclicality by using the production function approach employed by Hall (1990) and Basu and Fernald (1995). The aggregate Solow residual displays pro-cyclicality. A large number of industries show constant returns to scale. No significant evidence for the presence of thick-market externalities is found. Our results also hold when we consider labour hoarding, part-time employment, and the adjustment cost of investment. The results indicate that policies to revitalize the Japanese economy should concentrate on promoting productivity growth.

Asset Pricing Implications of Nonconvex Adjustment Costs and Irreversibility of Investment

ABSTRACTThis paper derives a real options model that accounts for the value premium. If real investment is largely irreversible, the book value of assets of a distressed firm is high relative to its market value because it has idle physical capital. The firm's excess installed capital capacity enables it to fully benefit from positive aggregate shocks without undertaking costly investment. Thus, returns to equity holders of a high book‐to‐market firm are sensitive to aggregate conditions and its systematic risk is high. Simulations indicate that the model goes a long way toward accounting for the observed value premium.

Fiscal Policy and Adjustment Costs of Private Investment in an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Capital

This paper develops an endogenous growth model with public capital and examines the growth and welfare effects of a fiscal policy that is financed by corporate taxation. In the model, we incorporate the investment decision-making of competitive firms by considering the adjustment costs of private investment. We show that there arises an indeterminacy of the balanced growth path. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that growth-maximizing policy is not equivalent to welfare-maximizing policy on the balanced growth path.

Rolling back the public sector: differential effects on employment, investment, and growth

The macroeconomic effects of different ways of rolling back the welfare state are analysed. Cutting public spending on market goods induces a lower interest rate, a higher wage, a lower capital stock, and a fall in employment. Cutting public employment or the labour income tax rate leads, in contrast, to a lower wage, a higher interest rate and a higher capital stock. Employment rises on impact. If the extra revenues of rolling back the welfare state are handed back via a lower tax rate rather than a lump-sum subsidy, both cutting public employment and cutting public spending on market goods induce an investment boom. Making the tax system less progressive by cutting tax credits and the labour income tax rate induces an investment boom as well. The effects of endogenous growth, adjustment costs for investment, and non-Walrasian labour markets on these results are considered as well.

Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test

In recent years, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NK DSGE) models have become increasingly popular in the academic literature and in policy analysis. However, the success of these models in reproducing the dynamic behavior of an economy following structural shocks is still disputed. This paper attempts to shed light on this issue. We use a VAR with sign restrictions that are robust to model and parameter uncertainty to estimate the effects of monetary policy, preference, government spending, investment, price markup, technology, and labor supply shocks on macroeconomic variables in the United States and the euro area. In contrast to the NK DSGE models, the empirical results indicate that technology shocks have a positive effect on hours worked, and investment and preference shocks have a positive impact on consumption and investment, respectively. While the former is in line with the predictions of Real Business Cycle models, the latter indicates the relevance of accelerator effects, as described by earlier Keynesian models. We also show that NK DSGE models might overemphasize the contribution of cost-push shocks to business cycle fluctuations while, at the same time, underestimating the importance of other shocks such as changes to technology and investment adjustment costs.