Hydrate Inventory Research Articles

Spatial Changes in Gas Transport and Sediment Stiffness Influenced by Regional Stress: Observations From Piezometer Data Along Vestnesa Ridge, Eastern Fram Strait

AbstractGas transport through sediments to the seabed and seepage occurs via advection through pores, faults, and fractures, and as solubility driven gas diffusion. The pore pressure gradient is a key factor in these processes. Yet, in situ measurements for quantitative studies of fluid dynamics and sediment deformation in deep ocean environments remain scarce. In this study, we integrate piezometer data, geotechnical tests, and sediment core analyses to study the pressure regime that controls gas transport along the Vestnesa Ridge in the eastern Fram Strait. The data show a progressive westward decrease in induced pore pressure (i.e., from c. 180 to c. 50 kPa) upon piezometer penetration and undrained shear strength of the sediments, interpreted as a decrease in sediment stiffness. In addition, the data suggest that the upper c. 6 m of sediments may be mechanically damaged due to variations in gas diffusion rates and exsolution. Background pore pressures are mostly at hydrostatic conditions, but localized excess pore pressures (i.e., up to 10 kPa) exist and point toward external controls. When analyzed in conjunction with observations from geophysical data and sediment core analyses, the pore pressure data suggest a spatial change from an advection dominated to a diffusion dominated fluid flow system, influenced by the behavior of sedimentary faults. Understanding gas transport mechanisms and their effect on fine‐grained sediments of deep ocean settings is critical for constraining gas hydrate inventories, seepage phenomena and sub‐seabed sediment deformations and instabilities.

Evolution of gas hydrates inventory and anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) after 40ka in the Taixinan Basin, South China Sea

Gas hydrates are the largest carbon sink on the earth and have an important impact on global climate and the environment. We studied theδ34S,δ13C, major trace elements and P –Fe dates at station 973-4 which acquired from the cold seep area of the Taixinan Basin. The results showed that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Younger Dryas (YD), and the Last Deglaciation, Gas hydrate inventory (GHI) was significantly reduced. And during the LGM, anaerobic oxidation of methane played an important role in preventing methane from leaking into seawater and the atmosphere. Because that there was no acidification of seawater or increase in PCO2. Meanwhile, rapid rate of sediment accumulation caused by isobaric flow provided accumulated material for Anaerobic Oxidation of Methan (AOM) during the LGM. The rapid rate of sediment accumulation also created a good environment for the formation of PCFA and vivianite below the sulfate methane transition zone (SMTZ). And according to changes of elements with depth, we conclude that the effect of methane anaerobic oxidation on redistribution of elemental P–Fe is divided into three processes: SMTZ rapid movement (material accumulation); SMTZ gradually stable; and SMTZ fixation process. In this paper, the effects of sedimentary evolution and hydrate evolution on AOM are studied in detail, which is of great significance for further understanding of anaerobic oxidation of methane.

Geological Controls on Fluid Flow and Gas Hydrate Pingo Development on the Barents Sea Margin

AbstractIn 2014, the discovery of seafloor mounds leaking methane gas into the water column in the northwestern Barents Sea became the first to document the existence of nonpermafrost‐related gas hydrate pingos (GHPs) on the Eurasian Arctic shelf. The discovered site is given attention because the gas hydrates occur close to the upper limit of the gas hydrate stability, thus may be vulnerable to climatic forcing. In addition, this site lies on the regional Hornsund Fault Zone marking a transition between the oceanic and continental crust. The Hornsund Fault Zone is known to coincide with an extensive seafloor gas seepage area; however, until now lack of seismic data prevented connecting deep structural elements to shallow seepages. Here we use high‐resolution P‐Cable 3‐D seismic data to study the subsurface architecture of GHPs and underlying glacial and preglacial deposits. The data show gas hydrates, authigenic carbonates, and free gas within the GHPs on top of gas chimneys piercing a thin section of low‐permeability glacial sediments. The chimneys connect to faults within the underlying tilted and folded fluid and gas‐hydrate‐bearing sedimentary rocks. Correlation of our data with regional 2‐D seismic surveys shows a spatial connection between the shallow subsurface fluid flow system and the deep‐seated regional fault zone. We suggest that fault‐controlled Paleocene hydrocarbon reservoirs inject methane into the low‐permeability glacial deposits and near‐seabed sediments, forming the GHPs. This conceptual model explains the existence of climate‐sensitive gas hydrate inventories and extensive seabed methane release observed along the Svalbard‐Barents Sea margin.

Quantifying gas hydrate from microbial methane in the South China Sea

Methane hydrate has been confirmed to be present in the South China Sea (SCS) based on drilling expeditions and geophysical indications. It is necessary to access the methane hydrate inventory because of its role in the energy resources and climate change. The aim of this study is to constrain the inventory of methane hydrates in the SCS formed by the microbial degradation of organic matter within the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ). Bathymetry, seafloor temperature, and geothermal gradient datasets enabled us to estimate the GHSZ at a resolution of 30″×30″ for the SCS. We conclude that the GHSZ occurs at water depths of >500 m in most areas of the SCS. The methane hydrate distribution formed by microbial methane production in the SCS was computed using the parameterized transfer function recently proposed by Wallmann et al. (2012). The result indicates widespread accumulations of methane hydrate along the continental slopes in the SCS. The microbial methane hydrate is distributed over a 7.69 × 1011 m2 area and the total abundance of methane hydrate in the SCS is estimated to be 42.8 Gt C.

Theoretical simulation of the evolution of methane hydrates in the case of Northern South China Sea since the last glacial maximum

The distribution and inventory of gas hydrates in a region is determined by the sediment characteristics, methane supply and evolution of the reservoir. In recent decades, the geo-environmental constraints and sources of methane have been intensively investigated, and numerous experimental and numerical simulation tools have been developed to evaluate the inventory of hydrates. However, information regarding the evolution of hydrate reservoirs remains limited. This study developed a simulator to theoretically model the evolution of specific reservoirs since the last glacial maximum (LGM). The LGM was a recent cold epoch that occurred approximately 18,000 years ago. Since the LGM, the earth’s climate system has experienced a continuous increase of surface temperature and rising sea level. Given a sufficient supply of methane and a transport system, hydrates may form in marine sediments if sea level rises or melt if the temperature increases. A one-dimensional simulator that represents the sediment was developed and uses the current hydrate profiles as the initial conditions and reliable paleoenvironmental data obtained in sites located in the northern shelf of the South China Sea (SCS) as boundary conditions. Two types of hydrate profiles were reversely simulated till the LGM: (1) a Gaussian profile, which was observed in the Shenhu area and (2) a trapezoidal profile, which was observed in the Dongsha area, SCS. The evolution and past quantities of local hydrate reservoirs were estimated. The model results demonstrated that shallow (500–700 m below the seafloor, or mbsf) moderate-saturation (50 % pore volume, or v:v) hydrate deposits will form if they are subjected to recent climate changes. The inventory of hydrates in the NSCS increased by only 0–7 % over the past 18,000 years under various scenarios. A sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most pertinent parameters that control the formation and dissociation of hydrates, including the grain size, temperature gradient and deposition depth. The distribution and depth of the reservoir were determined to be the most critical factors in the evolution of the studied hydrates.

Submarine groundwater discharge as a possible formation mechanism for permafrost‐associated gas hydrate on the circum‐Arctic continental shelf

AbstractSubmarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is a large‐scale, buoyancy‐driven, offshore flow of terrestrial groundwater. If SGD occurs within the permafrost‐bearing sediments of the circum‐Arctic shelf, such fluid circulation may transport large amounts of dissolved methane to the circum‐Arctic shelf, aiding the formation of permafrost‐associated gas hydrate. We investigate the feasibility of this new permafrost‐associated gas hydrate formation mechanism with a 2‐D, multiphase fluid flow model, using the Canadian Beaufort Shelf as an example. The numerical model includes freeze/thaw permafrost processes and predicts the unsteady, 2‐D methane solubility field for hydrate inventory calculations. Model results show that widespread, low‐saturation hydrate deposits accumulate within and below submarine permafrost, even if offshore‐flowing groundwater is undersaturated in methane gas. While intrapermafrost hydrate inventory varies widely depending on permafrost extent, subpermafrost hydrate stability remains largely intact across consecutive glacial cycles, allowing widespread subpermafrost accumulation over time. Methane gas escape to the sediment surface (atmosphere) is predicted along the seaward permafrost boundary during the early to middle years of each glacial epoch; however, if free gas is trapped within the forming permafrost layer instead, venting may be delayed until ocean transgression deepens the permafrost table during interglacial periods, and may be related to the spatial distribution of observed pingo‐like features (PLFs) on the Canadian Beaufort Shelf. Shallow, gas‐charged sediments are predicted above the gas hydrate stability zone at the midshelf to shelf edge and the upper slope, where a gap in hydrate stability allows free gas to accumulate and numerous PLFs have been observed.

Modeling the fate of methane hydrates under global warming

AbstractLarge amounts of methane hydrate locked up within marine sediments are vulnerable to climate change. Changes in bottom water temperatures may lead to their destabilization and the release of methane into the water column or even the atmosphere. In a multimodel approach, the possible impact of destabilizing methane hydrates onto global climate within the next century is evaluated. The focus is set on changing bottom water temperatures to infer the response of the global methane hydrate inventory to future climate change. Present and future bottom water temperatures are evaluated by the combined use of hindcast high‐resolution ocean circulation simulations and climate modeling for the next century. The changing global hydrate inventory is computed using the parameterized transfer function recently proposed by Wallmann et al. (2012). We find that the present‐day world's total marine methane hydrate inventory is estimated to be 1146 Gt of methane carbon. Within the next 100 years this global inventory may be reduced by ∼0.03% (releasing ∼473 Mt methane from the seafloor). Compared to the present‐day annual emissions of anthropogenic methane, the amount of methane released from melting hydrates by 2100 is small and will not have a major impact on the global climate. On a regional scale, ocean bottom warming over the next 100 years will result in a relatively large decrease in the methane hydrate deposits, with the Arctic and Blake Ridge region, offshore South Carolina, being most affected.

Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20mmyr−1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ∼100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath <500m water depth. Predicted dissociation rates are particularly sensitive to the modelled vertical hydrate distribution within sediments. Under the worst case business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30–50TgCH4yr−1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75–1.4Tg CH4yr−1.

Estimation of the global inventory of methane hydrates in marine sediments using transfer functions

Abstract. The accumulation of gas hydrates in marine sediments is essentially controlled by the accumulation of particulate organic carbon (POC) which is microbially converted into methane, the thickness of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) where methane can be trapped, the sedimentation rate (SR) that controls the time that POC and the generated methane stays within the GHSZ, and the delivery of methane from deep-seated sediments by ascending pore fluids and gas into the GHSZ. Recently, Wallmann et al. (2012) presented transfer functions to predict the gas hydrate inventory in diffusion-controlled geological systems based on SR, POC and GHSZ thickness for two different scenarios: normal and full compacting sediments. We apply these functions to global data sets of bathymetry, heat flow, seafloor temperature, POC input and SR, estimating a global mass of carbon stored in marine methane hydrates from 3 to 455 Gt of carbon (GtC) depending on the sedimentation and compaction conditions. The global sediment volume of the GHSZ in continental margins is estimated to be 60–67 × 1015 m3, with a total of 7 × 1015 m3 of pore volume (available for GH accumulation). However, seepage of methane-rich fluids is known to have a pronounced effect on gas hydrate accumulation. Therefore, we carried out a set of systematic model runs with the transport-reaction code in order to derive an extended transfer function explicitly considering upward fluid advection. Using averaged fluid velocities for active margins, which were derived from mass balance considerations, this extended transfer function predicts the enhanced gas hydrate accumulation along the continental margins worldwide. Different scenarios were investigated resulting in a global mass of sub-seafloor gas hydrates of ~ 550 GtC. Overall, our systematic approach allows to clearly and quantitatively distinguish between the effect of biogenic methane generation from POC and fluid advection on the accumulation of gas hydrate, and hence, provides a simple prognostic tool for the estimation of large-scale and global gas hydrate inventories in marine sediments.

A two-dimensional model of the methane cycle in a sedimentary accretionary wedge

Abstract. A two-dimensional model of sediment column geophysics and geochemistry has been adapted to the problem of an accretionary wedge formation, patterned after the margin of the Juan de Fuca plate as it subducts under the North American plate. Much of the model description is given in a companion paper about the application of the model to an idealized passive margin setting; here we build on that formulation to simulate the impact of the sediment deformation, as it approaches the subduction zone, on the methane cycle. The active margin configuration of the model shares sensitivities with the passive margin configuration, in that sensitivities to organic carbon deposition and respiration kinetics, and to vertical bubble transport and redissolution in the sediment, are stronger than the sensitivity to ocean temperature. The active margin simulation shows a complex sensitivity of hydrate inventory to plate subduction velocity, with results depending strongly on the geothermal heat flux. In low heat-flux conditions, the model produces a larger inventory of hydrate per meter of coastline in the passive margin than active margin configurations. However, the local hydrate concentrations, as pore volume saturation, are higher in the active setting than in the passive, as generally observed in the field.

A two-dimensional model of the passive coastal margin deep sedimentary carbon and methane cycles

Abstract. We present a new geologic-time and basin-spatial scale model of the continental margin methane cycle. The model, SpongeBOB, is used to simulate evolution of the carbon cycle in a passive sedimentary continental margin in response to changing oceanographic and geologic forcing over a time scale of 200 million years. The geochemistry of the sediment column is altered by the addition of vertical high-permeability channels intended to mimic the effects of heterogeneity in the real sediment column due to faults, and produces results consistent with measured pore-water tracers SO42− and 129I. Pore water dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations are consistent with chemical weathering (CaCO3 formation from igneous rocks) at depth within the sediment column. The carbon isotopic composition of the DIC is consistent with a methane production efficiency from particulate organic carbon (POC) of 50%, which is somewhat lower than redox balance with the H / C of organic matter in the model. The hydrate inventory in the model is somewhat less sensitive to temperature than our previous results with a one-dimensional model, quite sensitive to reasonable changes in POC, and extremely sensitive to the ability of methane bubbles to rise within the sediment column, and how far gas-phase methane can get through the sediment column before it redissolves when it reaches undersaturated conditions. Hydrate formation is also sensitive to deep respiration of migrating petroleum. Other phenomena which we simulated had only a small impact on the hydrate inventory, including thermogenic methane production and production/decomposition of dissolved organic carbon.

Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica

Once thought to be devoid of life, the ice-covered parts of Antarctica are now known to be a reservoir of metabolically active microbial cells and organic carbon. The potential for methanogenic archaea to support the degradation of organic carbon to methane beneath the ice, however, has not yet been evaluated. Large sedimentary basins containing marine sequences up to 14 kilometres thick and an estimated 21,000 petagrams (1 Pg equals 10(15) g) of organic carbon are buried beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. No data exist for rates of methanogenesis in sub-Antarctic marine sediments. Here we present experimental data from other subglacial environments that demonstrate the potential for overridden organic matter beneath glacial systems to produce methane. We also numerically simulate the accumulation of methane in Antarctic sedimentary basins using an established one-dimensional hydrate model and show that pressure/temperature conditions favour methane hydrate formation down to sediment depths of about 300 metres in West Antarctica and 700 metres in East Antarctica. Our results demonstrate the potential for methane hydrate accumulation in Antarctic sedimentary basins, where the total inventory depends on rates of organic carbon degradation and conditions at the ice-sheet bed. We calculate that the sub-Antarctic hydrate inventory could be of the same order of magnitude as that of recent estimates made for Arctic permafrost. Our findings suggest that the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be a neglected but important component of the global methane budget, with the potential to act as a positive feedback on climate warming during ice-sheet wastage.

The Global Inventory of Methane Hydrate in Marine Sediments: A Theoretical Approach

The accumulation of methane hydrate in marine sediments is controlled by a number of physical and biogeochemical parameters including the thickness of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), the solubility of methane in pore fluids, the accumulation of particulate organic carbon at the seafloor, the kinetics of microbial organic matter degradation and methane generation in marine sediments, sediment compaction and the ascent of deep-seated pore fluids and methane gas into the GHSZ. Our present knowledge on these controlling factors is discussed and new estimates of global sediment and methane fluxes are provided applying a transport-reaction model at global scale. The modeling and the data evaluation yield improved and better constrained estimates of the global pore volume within the modern GHSZ ( ≥ 44 × 1015 m3), the Holocene POC accumulation rate at the seabed (~1.4 × 1014 g yr−1), the global rate of microbial methane production in the deep biosphere (4−25 × 1012 g C yr−1) and the inventory of methane hydrates in marine sediments ( ≥ 455 Gt of methane-bound carbon).

Distribution and abundance of gas hydrates in near-surface deposits of the Håkon Mosby Mud Volcano, SW Barents Sea

The occurrence of gas hydrates at submarine mud volcanoes (MVs) located within the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is controlled by upward fluid and heat flux associated with MV activity. Determining the spatial distribution of gas hydrates at MVs is crucial to evaluate their sensitivity to known episodic changes in volcanic activity. We determined the hydrocarbon inventory and spatial distribution of hydrates at an individual MV structure. The Hakon Mosby Mud Volcano (HMMV), located at 1,250 m water depth on the Barents Sea slope, was investigated by combined pressure core sampling, heat flow measurements, and pore water chemical analysis. Quantitative pressure core degassing revealed gas-sediment ratios between 3.1 and 25.7, corresponding to hydrate concentrations of up to 21.3% of the pore volume. Hydrocarbon compositions and physicochemical conditions imply that gas hydrates incipiently crystallize as structure I hydrate, with a dissociation temperature of around 13.8 degrees C at this water depth. Based on numerous in situ measurements of the geothermal gradient in the seabed, pore water sulfate profiles and microbathymetric data, we show that the thickness of the GHSZ increases from less than 1 m at the warm center to around 47 m in the outer parts of the HMMV. We estimate the total mass of hydrate-bound methane stored at the HMMV to be about 102.5 kt, of which 2.8 kt are located within the morphological Unit I around the center and thus are likely to be dissociated in the course of a large eruption.

Estimation of the global amount of submarine gas hydrates formed via microbial methane formation based on numerical reaction-transport modeling and a novel parameterization of Holocene sedimentation

This study provides new estimates for the global offshore methane hydrate inventory formed due to microbial CH 4 production under Quaternary and Holocene boundary conditions. A multi-1D model for particular organic carbon (POC) degradation, gas hydrate formation and dissolution is presented. The novel reaction-transport model contains an open three-phase system of two solid compounds (organic carbon, gas hydrates), three dissolved species (methane, sulfates, inorganic carbon) and one gaseous phase (free methane). The model computes time-resolved concentration profiles for all compounds by accounting for chemical reactions as well as diffusive and advective transport processes. The reaction module builds upon a new kinetic model of POC degradation which considers a down-core decrease in reactivity of organic matter. Various chemical reactions such as organic carbon decay, anaerobic oxidation of methane, methanogenesis, and sulfate reduction are resolved using appropriate kinetic rate laws and constants. Gas hydrates and free gas form if the concentration of dissolved methane exceeds the pressure, temperature, and salinity-dependent solubility limits of hydrates and/or free gas, with a rate given by kinetic parameters. Global input grids have been compiled from a variety of oceanographic, geological and geophysical data sets including a new parameterization of sedimentation rates in terms of water depth. We find prominent gas hydrate provinces offshore Central America where sediments are rich in organic carbon and in the Arctic Ocean where low bottom water temperatures stabilize methane hydrates. The world’s total gas hydrate inventory is estimated at 0.82 × 10 13 m 3 – 2.10 × 10 15 m 3 CH 4 (at STP conditions) or, equivalently, 4.18–995 Gt of methane carbon. The first value refers to present day conditions estimated using the relatively low Holocene sedimentation rates; the second value corresponds to a scenario of higher Quaternary sedimentation rates along continental margins. Our results clearly show that in-situ POC degradation is at present not an efficient hydrate forming process. Significant hydrate deposits in marine settings are more likely to have formed at times of higher sedimentation during the Quaternary or as a consequence of upward fluid transport at continental margins.

Possible role of wetlands, permafrost, and methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change: A review

We have reviewed the available scientific literature on how natural sources and the atmospheric fate of methane may be affected by future climate change. We discuss how processes governing methane wetland emissions, permafrost thawing, and destabilization of marine hydrates may affect the climate system. It is likely that methane wetland emissions will increase over the next century. Uncertainties arise from the temperature dependence of emissions and changes in the geographical distribution of wetland areas. Another major concern is the possible degradation or thaw of terrestrial permafrost due to climate change. The amount of carbon stored in permafrost, the rate at which it will thaw, and the ratio of methane to carbon dioxide emissions upon decomposition form the main uncertainties. Large amounts of methane are also stored in marine hydrates, and they could be responsible for large emissions in the future. The time scales for destabilization of marine hydrates are not well understood and are likely to be very long for hydrates found in deep sediments but much shorter for hydrates below shallow waters, such as in the Arctic Ocean. Uncertainties are dominated by the sizes and locations of the methane hydrate inventories, the time scales associated with heat penetration in the ocean and sediments, and the fate of methane released in the seawater. Overall, uncertainties are large, and it is difficult to be conclusive about the time scales and magnitudes of methane feedbacks, but significant increases in methane emissions are likely, and catastrophic emissions cannot be ruled out. We also identify gaps in our scientific knowledge and make recommendations for future research and development in the context of Earth system modeling.

A transfer function for the prediction of gas hydrate inventories in marine sediments

Abstract. A simple prognostic tool for gas hydrate (GH) quantification in marine sediments is presented based on a diagenetic transport-reaction model approach. One of the most crucial factors for the application of diagenetic models is the accurate formulation of microbial degradation rates of particulate organic carbon (POC) and the coupled formation of biogenic methane. Wallmann et al. (2006) suggested a kinetic formulation considering the ageing effects of POC and accumulation of reaction products (CH4, CO2) in the pore water. This model is applied to data sets of several ODP sites in order to test its general validity. Based on a thorough parameter analysis considering a wide range of environmental conditions, the POC accumulation rate (POCar in g/m2/yr) and the thickness of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ in m) were identified as the most important and independent controls for biogenic GH formation. Hence, depth-integrated GH inventories in marine sediments (GHI in g of CH4 per cm2 seafloor area) can be estimated as: GHI = a · POCar · GHSZb · exp (– GHSZc/POCar/d) + e with a = 0.00214, b = 1.234, c = –3.339, d = 0.3148, e = –10.265. The transfer function gives a realistic first order approximation of the minimum GH inventory in low gas flux (LGF) systems. The overall advantage of the presented function is its simplicity compared to the application of complex numerical models, because only two easily accessible parameters need to be determined.

Gas hydrates: past and future geohazard?

Gas hydrates are ice-like deposits containing a mixture of water and gas; the most common gas is methane. Gas hydrates are stable under high pressures and relatively low temperatures and are found underneath the oceans and in permafrost regions. Estimates range from 500 to 10,000 giga tonnes of carbon (best current estimate 1600-2000 GtC) stored in ocean sediments and 400 GtC in Arctic permafrost. Gas hydrates may pose a serious geohazard in the near future owing to the adverse effects of global warming on the stability of gas hydrate deposits both in ocean sediments and in permafrost. It is still unknown whether future ocean warming could lead to significant methane release, as thermal penetration of marine sediments to the clathrate-gas interface could be slow enough to allow a new equilibrium to occur without any gas escaping. Even if methane gas does escape, it is still unclear how much of this could be oxidized in the overlying ocean. Models of the global inventory of hydrates and trapped methane bubbles suggest that a global 3( degrees )C warming could release between 35 and 940 GtC, which could add up to an additional 0.5( degrees )C to global warming. The destabilization of gas hydrate reserves in permafrost areas is more certain as climate models predict that high-latitude regions will be disproportionately affected by global warming with temperature increases of over 12( degrees )C predicted for much of North America and Northern Asia. Our current estimates of gas hydrate storage in the Arctic region are, however, extremely poor and non-existent for Antarctica. The shrinking of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in response to regional warming may also lead to destabilization of gas hydrates. As ice sheets shrink, the weight removed allows the coastal region and adjacent continental slope to rise through isostacy. This removal of hydrostatic pressure could destabilize gas hydrates, leading to massive slope failure, and may increase the risk of tsunamis.

Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global carbon cycle

We present a model of the global methane inventory as hydrate and bubbles below the sea floor. The model predicts the inventory of CH(4) in the ocean today to be approximately 1600-2,000 Pg of C. Most of the hydrate in the model is in the Pacific, in large part because lower oxygen levels enhance the preservation of organic carbon. Because the oxygen concentration today may be different from the long-term average, the sensitivity of the model to O(2) is a source of uncertainty in predicting hydrate inventories. Cold water column temperatures in the high latitudes lead to buildup of hydrates in the Arctic and Antarctic at shallower depths than is possible in low latitudes. A critical bubble volume fraction threshold has been proposed as a critical threshold at which gas migrates all through the sediment column. Our model lacks many factors that lead to heterogeneity in the real hydrate reservoir in the ocean, such as preferential hydrate formation in sandy sediments and subsurface gas migration, and is therefore conservative in its prediction of releasable methane, finding only 35 Pg of C released after 3 degrees C of uniform warming by using a 10% critical bubble volume. If 2.5% bubble volume is taken as critical, then 940 Pg of C might escape in response to 3 degrees C warming. This hydrate model embedded into a global climate model predicts approximately 0.4-0.5 degrees C additional warming from the hydrate response to fossil fuel CO(2) release, initially because of methane, but persisting through the 10-kyr duration of the simulations because of the CO(2) oxidation product of methane.

Consequences of moderate ∼ 25,000 yr lasting emission of light CO 2 into the mid-Cretaceous ocean

Future warming is predicted to shift the Earth system into a mode with progressive increase and vigour of extreme climate events possibly stimulating other mechanisms that invigorate global warming. This study provides new data and modelling investigating climatic consequences and biogeochemical feedbacks that happened in a warmer world ∼ 112 Myr ago. Our study focuses on the Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1b and explores how the Earth system responded to a moderate ∼ 25,000 yr lasting climate perturbation that is modelled to be less than 1 °C in global average temperature. Using a new chronological model for OAE 1b we present high-resolution elemental and bulk carbon isotope records from DSDP Site 545 from Mazagan Plateau off NW Africa and combine this information with a coupled atmosphere–land–ocean model. The simulations suggest that a perturbation at the onset of OAE 1b caused almost instantaneous warming of the atmosphere on the order of 0.3 °C followed by a longer (∼ 45,000 yr) period of ∼ 0.8 °C cooling. The marine records from DSDP Site 545 support that these moderate swings in global climate had immediate consequences for African continental supply of mineral matter and nutrients (phosphorous), subsequent oxygen availability, and organic carbon burial in the eastern subtropical Atlantic, however, without turning the ocean anoxic. The match between modelling results and stratigraphic isotopic data support previous studies [summarized in Jenkyns, H.C., 2003. Evidence for rapid climate change in the Mesozoic–Palaeogene greenhouse world. The Royal Society, 361: 1885–1916.] in that methane emission from marine hydrates, albeit moderate in dimension, may have been the trigger for OAE 1b, though we can not finally rule out alternative mechanisms. Following the hydrate mechanism a total of 1.15 × 10 18 g methane carbon ( δ 13C = − 60 ‰), equivalent to about 10% to the total modern gas hydrate inventory, generated the δ 13C carb profile recorded in the section. Modelling suggests a combination of moderate-scale methane pulses supplemented by continuous methane emission at elevated levels over ∼ 25,000 yr. The proposed mechanism, though difficult to finally confirm in the geological past, is arguably more likely to occur in a warmer world and apparently perturbs global climate and ocean chemistry almost instantaneously. This study shows that, once set-off, this mechanism can maintain Earth's climate in a perturbed mode over geological time leading to pronounced changes in regional climate.