Introduction Of African Swine Fever Research Articles

Risk Assessments and Risk Mitigation to Prevent the Introduction of African Swine Fever into the Danish Pig Population.

African Swine Fever poses a significant threat to pig production. An outbreak in Denmark would have severe economic consequences, potentially resulting in a loss between 335 million and 670 million euros. To mitigate the major risk factors, the Danish authorities and the Danish pig industry have implemented several risk-reducing measures. The small wild boar population in Danish nature has been culled, and a fence between Denmark and Germany has been constructed to stop or reduce the risk of migrating wild boar from Germany. All trucks arriving from abroad, intended for the transport of Danish pigs, are inspected, washed, and disinfected at facilities near the border before being allowed to transport pigs between herds or from herds out of Denmark. Cross-border trade of feedstuffs and potentially risky materials is continuously monitored. Based on risk assessments, feed types or bedding materials from countries with African Swine Fever that could contain parts of wild boar are banned from Danish pig herds. Certain types of fats and oils from countries with African Swine Fever can only be used after heat treatment. The import of whole kernels of corn, wheat, or barley is not considered a risk.

Perceptions and practices of Swedish wild boar hunters in relation to African swine fever before the first outbreak in Sweden

BackgroundThe first outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Sweden was detected in 2023 in wild boar. This study was conducted before the first ASF outbreak with the objective of investigating Swedish hunters’ perceptions and practices pertaining to ASF ahead of any potential future outbreak.A mixed-methods interview study with Swedish wild boar hunters, consisting of focus group discussions and a questionnaire, was undertaken between October 2020 and December 2021. Six focus groups were conducted online, and an online questionnaire with questions related to practices and habits concerning hunting, the use of bait and hunting trips was sent to all members of the Swedish Hunting and Wildlife Association. A total of 3244 responses were received.ResultsThree general themes were identified in a thematic analysis of the data from the focus groups: hunters are willing to engage in ASF prevention and control, simplicity and feasibility are crucial for the implementation of reporting, sampling and control measures, and more information and the greater involvement of the authorities are required in ASF prevention and control. Results from the questionnaire showed that the use of bait was common. Products of animal origin were rarely used for baiting; the most common product used was maize. Hunting trips abroad, especially outside of the Nordic countries, were uncommon.ConclusionsHunting tourism and the use of bait do not seem to constitute a major risk for the introduction of ASF to wild boar populations in Sweden. The accessibility of relevant information for each concerned stakeholder and the ease of reporting and sampling are crucial to maintain the positive engagement of hunters.

A methodological framework to characterize the wildlife-livestock interface: The case of wild boar in mainland Spain

BackgroundThe representation of wildlife-livestock interface (WLI) at an accurate spatial resolution poses several challenges. Furthermore, there is a lack of published material providing detailed descriptions of geospatial techniques for the purpose of producing visual results that are interpretable and contrastable for epidemiological analysis. ObjectivesOur aim is to develop a standardized, applicable, and scalable methodological framework for describing and characterizing the WLI across a large spatial extent. Subsequently, we aim to employ this framework to depict specific WLI based on different epidemiological scenarios determined by the abundance of wild boar (Sus scrofa) and domestic ungulates as an illustrative case, specifically focusing on mainland Spain. MethodsTo establish a methodological framework, we merged data from both wild and domestic sources into a hexagonal grid. We utilized data on wild boar hunting and the locations of pig, cattle, sheep, and goat farms in mainland Spain. New variables were derived from this combined dataset to illustrate the overlapping abundance between wild boar and domestic species. Finally, a cluster analysis of the generated variables was carried out, with the aim of distinguishing and characterizing various scenarios of the wild boar-domestic ungulate interface in mainland Spain. ResultsThe hexagonal grid proved appropriate to represent and evaluate the WLI at fine spatial resolution over such broad extent. Despite the inability to ascribe a dominant livestock type and production system to a specific region, we were able to identify fifteen main areas of interest in terms of overlap. As for extensive livestock, normally at the highest risk of interaction with wild boar, the primary regions in Spain were those with dehesa agroecosystem and the Atlantic areas. Certain scenarios were particularly relevant in terms of risk for interaction and subsequent transmission of disease, namely, the case of extensive pig production in south western Spain (dehesa agroecosystem), which is especially concerned about the potential introduction of African Swine fever (ASF) in the Country. Discussion and conclusionsWe provide a basis for visualizing and understanding of different WLI scenarios, which is extensible to other regions and interfaces, and automatable where precise source of data from wildlife and livestock are available. This spatial statistics framework enables the utilization of high-resolution data, ensuring consistency on uniform grids. This aligns with the needs of high-resolution disease dissemination models based on wildlife behaviour. Such aspects are crucial for developing risk assessment and improving strategies for the prevention, control, and eradication of shared priority emerging diseases at national and international levels, such as ASF.

African Swine Fever Disease Risk Assessment Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: An Input for GIS-Based Risk Mapping

African Swine Fever (ASF) has severely impacted the Philippines' pig industry, caused socioeconomic losses, and affected income, supply, demand, and prices. There needs to be more understanding regarding the risk factors associated with ASF introduction into pig farms and the level of risk each farm faces. Accordingly, using a quantitative research method, this study used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to categorize ASF risk factors into biosecurity and spatial risk factors. Twenty-five (25) respondents were selected using a purposive participatory approach to rank the importance level of each risk factor as per the two risk factor categories. The AHP analysis revealed that the highest-risk biosecurity factors are the "absence of protocols for changing clothes, separate entry and exit, disinfection of objects, restriction on food introduction, and external individuals accessing the farms." In the spatial risk factor ranking, the analysis showed that the “distance to pig farms utilizing swill feeding" was the highest risk factor, indicating its significant contribution to the overall risk of farms. A farm risk assessment was also performed based on the AHP results and the level of compliance of each farm on the different risk factors. The study was conducted on selected pig farms in the municipality of Echague by evaluating their compliance with the identified risk factors and determining the level of risk they posed. The risk assessment results for African swine fever on farms reveal a concerning scenario. With 70% of farms assessed as "high risk" in terms of biosecurity and 74% classified as "medium risk" in spatial vulnerability, the overall assessment indicates that 84% of farms are at a moderate risk level. This suggests a widespread need for improved biosecurity practices and disease monitoring to prevent the introduction and spread of African swine fever. The 16% of farms deemed "high risk" pose a significant threat, requiring immediate action to prevent disease outbreaks. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing stringent biosecurity measures, enhancing surveillance efforts, and raising awareness to safeguard the pig industry from the devastating impacts of the ASF disease, like the rising cost of meat and pork-based commodities. Furthermore, these show the importance of considering the biosecurity and spatial risk factors for a more comprehensive risk assessment. The AHP ranking and risk assessment process is crucial in developing a GIS-based risk mapping and surveillance system. This offers government authorities a valuable decision-making tool to proactively prevent the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) and mitigate the necessity for widespread culling of pigs. By implementing targeted interventions informed by the study results, the government can work towards safeguarding the pig industry.

Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union during 2023.

In 2023, 14 Member States were affected by African swine fever (ASF), including Croatia and Sweden where ASF emerged (wild boar outbreaks only) and Greece where ASF re-emerged after being free since 2021. The number of ASF outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU was five times higher than in 2022, reaching a similar magnitude to that in 2019. This was predominantly driven by the introduction and subsequent spread of ASF in Croatia and its resurgence in Romania, representing 96% of the EU outbreaks. ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs were clearly seasonal in all countries, with 88% of outbreaks reported between July and October. Most of the ASF outbreaks among domestic pigs were detected through clinical suspicion (94%), followed by tracing from affected establishments (3%), and the weekly testing of at least two dead pigs in establishments (3%). In wild boar, a 10% increase in the number of notified outbreaks was observed in the EU in comparison with 2022, with considerable variations between countries. A winter peak was observed only in Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. The epidemiological situation in wild boar improved in Germany and Hungary, as suggested by the decrease in the number of outbreaks and in the proportions of PCR-positive samples from dead wild boar. Overall, 31% of wild boar carcasses found during passive surveillance tested positive by PCR, representing 69% of the ASF outbreaks in wild boar in the EU. In contrast, 0.4% of hunted wild boar tested positive, representing 31% of the outbreaks. Despite the introduction of ASF into new countries and the increase in the number of outbreaks, the size of restricted zones in the EU remained stable, due to the highly clustered outbreaks in Croatia, and the reduction of restricted zones in Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria (in domestic pigs), and Hungary (in wild boar).

Modelling African swine fever introduction in diverse Australian feral pig populations

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease that affects domestic and feral pigs. While not currently present in Australia, ASF outbreaks have been reported nearby in Indonesia, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea. Feral pigs are found in all Australian states and territories and are distributed in a variety of habitats. To investigate the impacts of an ASF introduction event in Australia, we used a stochastic network-based metapopulation feral pig model to simulate ASF outbreaks in different regions of Australia. Outbreak intensity and persistence in feral pig populations was governed by local pig recruitment rates, population size, carcass decay period, and, if applicable, metapopulation topology. In Northern Australia, the carcass decay period was too short for prolonged persistence, while endemic transmission could possibly occur in cooler southern areas. Populations in Macquarie Marshes in New South Wales and in Namadgi National Park in the Australian Capital Territory had the highest rates of persistence. The regions had different modes of transmission that led to long-term persistence. Endemic Macquarie Marshes simulations were characterised by rapid transmission caused by high population density that required a fragmented metapopulation to act as a bottleneck to slow transmission. Endemic simulations in Namadgi, with low density and relatively slow transmission, relied on large, well-connected populations coupled with long carcass decay times. Despite the potential for endemic transmission, both settings required potentially unlikely population sizes and dynamics for prolonged disease survival.

Understanding Smallholder Pigkeepers' Awareness and Perceptions of African Swine Fever and Its Control Measures in Ukraine.

African swine fever (ASF) has posed a significant threat to Ukrainian pig farming since its identification in 2012. In this study, recognising the pivotal role of pigkeepers in disease control, we conducted ten focus groups involving 52 smallholders across eight regions in Ukraine. Using participatory methods, we revealed their awareness of ASF signs, transmission routes, preventive measures, and the perceptions of stakeholders involved in ASF control. Furthermore, we identified the smallholders' acceptance of eradication and restriction measures, the perceived impact of zoning consequences, and their main sources of ASF information. Smallholders identified fever and skin haemorrhage as the most indicative signs of ASF and highlighted rodents as a primary transmission concern. Disinfection was seen as the most effective measure for preventing the introduction of ASF. Pigkeepers who perceived their stakeholder role in ASF control showed more trust in themselves and veterinarians than in central veterinary authorities. Farm-level ASF eradication measures were generally accepted; however, culling within the protection zone was least accepted, with economic losses listed as the most impactful consequence for pigkeepers. For ASF information, pigkeepers favour web searches and veterinarians, as well as traditional media and word-of-mouth news. This study provides valuable insights into refining the ASF communication strategies in Ukraine.

African swine fever at the wildlife-livestock interface: challenges for management and outbreak response within invasive wild pigs in the United States.

African swine fever (ASF) causes significant morbidity and mortality in both domestic and wild suids (Sus scrofa), and disease outbreaks convey profound economic costs to impacted industries due to death loss, the cost of culling exposed/infected animals as the primary disease control measure, and trade restrictions. The co-occurrence of domestic and wild suids significantly complicates ASF management given the potential for wild populations to serve as persistent sources for spillover. We describe the unique threat of African swine fever virus (ASFV) introduction to the United States from epidemiological and ecological perspectives with a specific focus on disease management at the wild-domestic swine interface. The introduction of ASF into domestic herds would require a response focused on containment, culling, and contact tracing. However, detection of ASF among invasive wild pigs would require a far more complex and intensive response given the challenges of detection, containment, and ultimately elimination among wild populations. We describe the state of the science available to inform preparations for an ASF response among invasive wild pigs, describe knowledge gaps and the associated studies needed to fill those gaps, and call for an integrated approach for preparedness that incorporates the best available science and acknowledges sociological attributes and the policy context needed for an integrated disease response.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and distributional trend analysis of African swine fever outbreaks (2020-2021) in North-East India.

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious, notifiable, and fatal hemorrhagic viral disease affecting domestic and wild pigs. The disease was reported for the first time in India during 2020, resulted in serious outbreaks and economic loss in North-Eastern(NE) parts, since 47% of the Indian pig population is distributed in the NEregion. The present study focused on analyzing the spatial autocorrelation, spatio-temporal patterns, and directional trend of the disease in NE India during 2020-2021. The ASF outbreak data (2020-2021) were collected from the offices of the Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Services in seven NE states of India to identify thepotential clusters, spatio-temporal aggregation, temporal distribution, disease spread, densitymaps, and risk zones. Between 2020 and 2021, a total of 321 ASF outbreaks were recorded, resulting in 59,377 deaths. The spatial pattern analysis of the outbreak data (2020-2021) revealed that ASF outbreaks were clustered in 2020 (z score = 2.20, p < .01) and 2021 (z score = 4.89, p < .01). Spatial autocorrelation and Moran's I value (0.05-0.06 in 2020 and 2021) revealed the spatial clustering and spatial relationship between the outbreaks. The hotspot analysis identified districts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and districts of Mizoram, Tripura as significant hotspots in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The spatial-scan statistics with a purely spatial and purely temporal analysis revealed six and one significant clusters, respectively. Retrospective unadjusted, temporal, and spatially adjusted space-time analysis detected five, five, and two statistically significant (p < .01) clusters, respectively. The directional trend analysis identified the direction of disease distribution as northeast-southwest (2020) and north-south (2021),indicatethe possibility of ASF introduction to India from China. The high-risk zones and spatio-temporal pattern of ASF outbreaks identified in the present study can be used as a guide for deploying proper prevention, optimizing resource allocation and diseasecontrol measures in NE Indian states.

From pigs to wild boars, the rise of African swine fever in India.

African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious transboundary disease of domestic pigs and wild boars. In India, introduction of ASF in early 2020 from outbreaks in domestic pigs reported from two north-eastern states and its further spread to several Indian states inflicted severe losses in pig and pork production. ASF has also been reported in wild boars (Sus scrofa) indicating a local transmission from domestic pigs with a high likelihood that it might attain an endemic status and threaten wildlife conservation by endangering the pygmy hogs (Porcula salvania), the world's smallest wild pig native to this region. To ensure future food security and prevent the implications of ASF in India, biosecurity and border measures, disease control strategies and production systems must be improved and modernized.

Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products

African swine fever (ASF) is currently threatening the global swine industry. Its unstoppable global spread poses a serious risk to Spain, one of the world's leading producers. Over the past years, there has been an increased global burden of ASF not only in swine but also swine products. Unfortunately, many pigs are not diagnosed before slaughter and their products are used for human consumption. These ASF-contaminated products are only a source for new ASF outbreaks when they are consumed by domestic pigs or wild boar, which may happen either by swill feeding or landfill access. This study presents a quantitative stochastic risk assessment model for the introduction of ASF into Spain via the legal import of swine products, specifically pork and pork products. Entry assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment and risk estimation were carried out. The results suggest an annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain of 1.74 × 10−4, the highest risk being represented by Hungary, Portugal, and Poland. Monthly risk distribution is homogeneously distributed throughout the year. Illegal trade and pork product movement for own consumption (e.g., air and ship passenger luggage) have not been taken into account due to the lack of available, accredited data sources. This limitation may have influenced the model's outcomes and, the risk of introduction might be higher than that estimated. Nevertheless, the results presented herein would contribute to allocating resources to areas at higher risk, improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.

Risk of African swine fever incursion into the Netherlands by wild boar carcasses and meat carried by Dutch hunters from hunting trips abroad

After the first introduction of African swine fever (ASF) in the European Union in 2014, the ASF virus (ASFV) has steadily spread in the European Union. The virus has occasionally been transmitted over unexpectedly large distances that are believed to be related to human-mediated spread. Hunting tourism has been mentioned as a potential contributor to these long-distance jumps, although evidence is lacking. In this study, the possible role of hunters carrying ASFV-contaminated wild boar products (WBP) from hunting trips in affected countries was evaluated. A quantitative risk model was developed to estimate the expected annual number of ASF exposures of wild boar and domestic pigs in the Netherlands via this introduction route. Main input data into the model were the ASF prevalence in hunted wild boar, the number and destination of hunting trips of Dutch hunters, and the probabilities that hunters take WBP home and dispose leftovers such that wild boar or domestic pigs have access. The model indicated that the total expected annual number of exposures (wild boar and domestic pigs together) in the Netherlands is 0.048 (95% uncertainty interval 7.5 × 10−3 – 0.15). Model results were most sensitive to uncertainty on leftovers fed to domestic pigs (swill feeding), which is an illegal practice. Uncertainties on the ASF prevalence of hunted wild boar and the probabilities that hunters take WBP home also impacted model results. Default model results were based on the 2019 situation. Alternative scenarios were run with the model to account for the change of ASF status of Belgium (recovery of ASF-free status) and Germany (ASF-infected) in 2020. Results indicated that especially the presence of ASF in Germany increased the incursion risk. However, this increase might be counteracted by a change in travel behavior of hunters.

Exploring pig farmers' decision-making concerning biosecurity measures against African Swine Fever.

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a growing threat to the German pig production sector. Rigorous biosecurity measures can prevent the introduction of ASF in domestic pig farms. Increased efforts have been made to inform pig farmers and other stakeholders in the industry regarding disease prevention measures for ASF. As part of quality management in animal disease prevention, we investigated the extent to which these efforts were successful and how knowledge transfer needs to be improved. Applying a qualitative study design with open, structured face-to-face interviews, this study aimed at assessing pig farmers' decision-making processes concerning the implementation of biosecurity measures against ASF and deducing the best-fitted pathways to improve the dissemination of information among pig farmers. We developed a modified theoretical model using the Health Belief Model, Protection Motivation Theory, and Theory of Planned Behaviour as the basis for our interview questionnaire and analysis. We showed that despite the steady spread of ASF into and within Germany, most pig farmers did not perceive an increased threat to their farms. However, many pig farmers communicated their uncertainty on how to correctly implement biosecurity measures according to the law. This study identified the importance of veterinary officials and farm veterinarians as referents on the topic of biosecurity and the need for clear standards concerning biosecurity regulations. Further, it suggests the need for closer cooperation between pig farmers and these referents, and a focus on joint decision-making, taking into account the individual circumstances of the farmers.

Epidemiological Characterization of African Swine Fever Dynamics in Ukraine, 2012-2023.

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral disease, endemic to Africa, that causes high mortality when introduced into domestic pig populations. Since the emergence of p72-genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) in Georgia in 2007, an ASF epidemic has been spreading across Europe and many countries in Asia. The epidemic first reached Ukraine in 2012. To better understand the dynamics of spread of ASF in Ukraine, we analyzed spatial and temporal outbreak data reported in Ukraine between 2012 and mid-2023. The highest numbers of outbreaks were reported in 2017 (N = 163) and 2018 (N = 145), with overall peak numbers of ASF outbreaks reported in August (domestic pigs) and January (wild boars). While cases were reported from most of Ukraine, we found a directional spread from the eastern and northern borders towards the western and southern regions of Ukraine. Many of the early outbreaks (before 2016) were adjacent to the border, which is again true for more recent outbreaks in wild boar, but not for recent outbreaks in domestic pigs. Outbreaks prior to 2016 also occurred predominantly in areas with a below average domestic pig density. This new analysis suggests that wild boars may have played an important role in the introduction and early spread of ASF in Ukraine. However, in later years, the dynamic suggests human activity as the predominant driver of spread and a separation of ASF epizootics between domestic pigs and in wild boars. The decline in outbreaks since 2019 suggests that the implemented mitigation strategies are effective, even though long-term control or eradication remain challenging and will require continued intensive surveillance of ASF outbreak patterns.

Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union during 2022.

This report presents the epidemiological analysis of African swine fever (ASF) during 2022 based on the surveillance and pig population data submitted by the European Union (EU) affected countries and one neighbouring country. Coinciding with regulatory changes and an important decrease in ASF outbreaks in 2022 in the EU, the number of domestic pig samples tested as part of active surveillance decreased by 80%, while the number of samples from passive surveillance almost doubled compared with 2021. Most outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU were detected by testing clinical suspicions (93% of outbreaks), followed by tracing activities (5%) and weekly testing of the first two dead pigs per establishment (2%). Although most of the wild boar samples came from hunted animals, the probability of detecting PCR-positive animals was much higher in wild boar found dead. The ASF outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU decreased by 79% while a decrease of 40% in the wild boar cases was observed in comparison with 2021. This was strongly marked in Romania, Poland and Bulgaria, with a reduction of 50-80% compared with 2021. In many countries, an important decrease in the number of pig establishments was observed, especially of small establishments with fewer than 100 pigs. The regional between farm incidence and proportion of pigs lost due to ASF in the EU was in general very low (average of 1%) apart from some regions in Romania. The impact of ASF on wild boar populations was variable, with a decline in wild boar abundance observed in certain countries versus a stable or even increased population after ASF introduction. This supports the negative relationship observed in this report between the proportion of the country with restricted zones due to ASF in wild boar and wild boar hunting bags.

Data-driven risk assessment of the incursion of African swine fever virus via pig products brought illegally into South Korea by travelers based on the temporal relationship between outbreaks in China.

Since 2018, Asian countries have been affected by the African swine fever (ASF) virus, with major socioeconomic consequences. Moreover, the number of people traveling in Asian countries has been increasing, leading to an inevitable increase in the risk of ASF spread through livestock products carried by travelers. China and South Korea have close geo-economic ties and numerous international travelers. After the ASF outbreak in China in 2018, many illegally imported pig products (IIPPs) that were confiscated from travelers from China at the port of entry in South Korea tested positive for ASF. The detection of ASF virus (ASFV)-positive IIPPs highlights the need to further assess the risk of incursion by travelers and review the existing prevention strategies. Here, we investigated the temporal relationship between ASF outbreaks in China and the detection of ASFV-positive IIPPs in randomly confiscated samples from all ports of entry, such as flights and ships to South Korea, from 2018 to 2019 using a cross-correlation analysis. Based on the significantly correlated temporal lags between the bivariate time-series data, a risk assessment model, using the Bayesian framework, was built to estimate the distribution of the parameters for the risk assessment model and the monthly probability of ASF being introduced via IIPPs from China to South Korea. ASF outbreaks in China were significantly associated with the detection of ASFV-positive IIPPs in South Korea 5 months later. Hence, the monthly probability of ASFV-infected pig products imported from China via a traveler to South Korea was estimated to be 2.00 × 10-5, corresponding to a 0.98 mean monthly probability of at least one ASF-infected pig product arriving at ports of entry via travelers, from 2018 to 2019. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the risk of ASF introduction via pig products carried by international travelers to all ports from neighboring countries in the Asian region using commonly exchanged observed data. The data presented in this study can be used to refine the intervention strategies to combat the spread of transboundary animal diseases.

A fuzzy risk assessment model used for assessing the introduction of African swine fever into Australia from overseas

African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious and lethal hemorrhagic disease with a high case fatality rate. Since 2007, ASF has been spreading into many countries, especially in Europe and Asia. Given that there is no effective vaccine and treatment to deal with ASF, prevention is an important way for a country to avoid the effects of the virus. Australia is currently ASF-free but the disease has been reported in many neighboring countries, such as Indonesia, Timor-Leste, and Papua New Guinea. Therefore, it is necessary for Australia to maintain hyper-vigilance to prevent the ASF introduction. In this paper, we propose the use of fuzzy concepts to establish a fuzzy risk assessment model to predict the ASF introduction risk in Australia. From the analysis, the international passengers (IP) and international import trade (IIT) are concluded as the two main ASF introduction factors based on transmission features and past research. From the established fuzzy risk assessment model based on the analysis of the 2019 and 2020 data, the risks of ASF introduction into Australia are considered to be low. The model further deduced that the Asian region was the major source of potential risks. Finally, in order to validate the effectiveness of the established fuzzy risk assessment model, the qualitative data from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs of the United Kingdom was used. From the validation results, it has shown that the results were consistent when the same data is adopted, and thus proved that the functionality of the established fuzzy risk assessment model for assessing the risk in Australia.

The First Eighteen Months of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Saxony, Germany and Latvia—A Comparison

African swine fever (ASF) emerged in Latvia in 2014. In 2020, the virus has been detected in the German federal state, Saxony. In both regions, the virus was probably introduced by infected wild boar coming from affected neighboring countries. As the current ASF control strategy at EU level had not yet been developed at the time of ASF introduction into Latvia, disease control measures in both study areas differed over time. Assessing the course of ASF in Saxony and the implemented control strategies, the first 18 months of the ASF epidemic were epidemiologically compared between Saxony and Latvia. ASF wild boar surveillance data were analyzed and the prevalence of ASF virus-positive wild boar was estimated. For estimating the wild boar density, the numbers of wild boar per km² were calculated for the respective geographical areas. The number of samples collected from hunted wild boar and wild boar found dead was higher in Saxony. The ASF virus prevalence in Latvia was significantly higher than in Saxony, indicating that Saxony has had more time for getting prepared for dealing with an ASF incursion. Experience from other countries and the rapid implementation of new control strategies may have helped Saxony deal with ASF.

SWOT analysis of risk factors associated with introduction of African Swine Fever through vehicles returning after export of pigs.

Denmark is a major pig exporter and applies a high level of biosecurity, with washing and disinfecting stations for returning livestock vehicles. The introduction of African Swine Fever (ASF) would have significant economic consequences related to loss of export of live pigs and products thereof. In this study, we focused on the role of empty livestock vehicles returning after exports of pigs for the introduction of ASF. Initially, the current components and measures related to export of livestock were described. Next, analyses of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) were conducted, covering the components and measures identified. Then, export of pigs was described either through assembly centers or directly from farms. Washing and disinfection, as required and undertaken at the designated stations, constitutes the most important among all risk-reducing measures identified. Recommendations are to: (1) ensure the quality of washing and disinfection through staff training; (2) find new, safe, and more efficient disinfectants; (3) ensure the required temperature, and therefore effect, of the disinfectant and water. It was impossible to assess, the influence of export through assembly centers compared to direct transport. However, through SWOT analyses we identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two pathways. Moreover, components/measures with risks of unknown sizes are also discussed, such as vehicles undertaking cabotage and the current vehicle quarantine periods.

Analysis of the drivers of ASF introduction into the officially approved pig compartments in South Africa and implications for the revision of biosecurity standards

BackgroundWhile African Swine Fever (ASF) virus has historically circulated in wild pigs and in Ornithodoros ticks in parts of South Africa, the virus has spread among domestic pigs throughout the country since 2019. South Africa’s compartment system has been used as a mainstay approach to protecting the swine industry in the face of ASF. However, in 2020, two compartments broke down with ASF. The objectives of this study are to investigate the drivers for ASF introduction into the compartments, to categorize compartments by risk of ASF introduction, and to make corresponding recommendations. The relevance of risk factors for ASF introduction for each compartment were investigated among veterinarians and farm managers. The analysis of risk factors weighted according to an expert elicitation were used to categorize compartments into risk levels.ResultsDrivers of disease related to human behaviors and to domestic pig management are perceived by farm managers and veterinarians of the compartments to be critical for ASF introduction into compartments in South Africa. Twenty-four units were categorized as high risk, forty-seven as medium risk, and twenty-four as low risk. “Insufficient boot and clothing biosecurity by animal health personnel” was identified as a relevant risk factor in all high risk units. Other prominent risk factors were “insufficient boot and clothing biosecurity by external people,” “underreporting of suspect ASF cases,” “improper hunting/ culling of wild suids inside the compartment,” “un-tested introductions into the herd,” and “entry and contact with free-roaming pigs.” The roles of wild pigs and competent vectors are considered minimal. There is a need for revision of the compartment standards and training of compartment personnel on the standards. The major gaps identified in the standards were absence of a monitoring programme to assess biosecurity implementation and suboptimal surveillance testing and audit strategies.ConclusionsThe results of our study confirm that ASF is increasingly an anthropogenic problem. Updating the compartment standards and addressing gaps in the knowledge of compartment personnel on ASF are most critical. To enhance compliance with biosecurity measures and thus control the disease, close engagement with all stakeholders linked to the compartments is needed.