African Swine Fever Disease Risk Assessment Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: An Input for GIS-Based Risk Mapping

Abstract

African Swine Fever (ASF) has severely impacted the Philippines' pig industry, caused socioeconomic losses, and affected income, supply, demand, and prices. There needs to be more understanding regarding the risk factors associated with ASF introduction into pig farms and the level of risk each farm faces. Accordingly, using a quantitative research method, this study used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to categorize ASF risk factors into biosecurity and spatial risk factors. Twenty-five (25) respondents were selected using a purposive participatory approach to rank the importance level of each risk factor as per the two risk factor categories. The AHP analysis revealed that the highest-risk biosecurity factors are the "absence of protocols for changing clothes, separate entry and exit, disinfection of objects, restriction on food introduction, and external individuals accessing the farms." In the spatial risk factor ranking, the analysis showed that the “distance to pig farms utilizing swill feeding" was the highest risk factor, indicating its significant contribution to the overall risk of farms. A farm risk assessment was also performed based on the AHP results and the level of compliance of each farm on the different risk factors. The study was conducted on selected pig farms in the municipality of Echague by evaluating their compliance with the identified risk factors and determining the level of risk they posed. The risk assessment results for African swine fever on farms reveal a concerning scenario. With 70% of farms assessed as "high risk" in terms of biosecurity and 74% classified as "medium risk" in spatial vulnerability, the overall assessment indicates that 84% of farms are at a moderate risk level. This suggests a widespread need for improved biosecurity practices and disease monitoring to prevent the introduction and spread of African swine fever. The 16% of farms deemed "high risk" pose a significant threat, requiring immediate action to prevent disease outbreaks. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing stringent biosecurity measures, enhancing surveillance efforts, and raising awareness to safeguard the pig industry from the devastating impacts of the ASF disease, like the rising cost of meat and pork-based commodities. Furthermore, these show the importance of considering the biosecurity and spatial risk factors for a more comprehensive risk assessment. The AHP ranking and risk assessment process is crucial in developing a GIS-based risk mapping and surveillance system. This offers government authorities a valuable decision-making tool to proactively prevent the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) and mitigate the necessity for widespread culling of pigs. By implementing targeted interventions informed by the study results, the government can work towards safeguarding the pig industry.