Introduction Of Information And Communication Technologies Research Articles

Mathematics Teachers’ Perceptions of the Introduction of ICT: The Relationship between Motivation and Use in the Teaching Function

Digital self-efficacy and the amount of perceived support from the school can improve teachers’ motivation to increase the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in the classroom. Likewise, attitude, perception, gender, and experience of mathematics teachers are factors that influence their use of ICT. This study aimed to analyze the profiles of mathematics teachers, determine the existence of differences between them, and identify the sample size necessary to detect significant differences. A total of 73 high school teachers were included in this cross-sectional study. Teaching practice, ICT resources, ICT in the classroom, skills, and uses of ICT were assessed through a validated 19-item questionnaire. Statistical analysis revealed that the required sample to detect significant differences was 53 subjects. Further, 67.21% of the mathematics teachers surveyed in Melilla were younger than 40 years of age, and 62.30% had less than 6 years of teaching experience. In addition, 81.97 and 47.54% of mathematics teachers stated that they consider themselves to have sufficient ICT resources at home for their work and in the classroom, respectively. Through different clusters, mathematics teachers can be identified and classified according to their motivational and competence profiles in pedagogical and digital areas. In addition, young teachers with some teaching experience had positive perceptions of technology, as reflected by high scores in the motivation indicator for ICT.

Prompt forecasting of heat flows under fire conditions in a vertical steel tank having an ANFIS protective wall

Introduction. Tanks and tank farms are widespread in many constituent entities of the Russian Federation and are among the most important elements of the model for the production, treatment, transportation and processing of oil and oil products. It is relevant both at the Russian and global levels to ensure that fire safety is arranged for tank farms to reduce highest risk levels according to the risk-based safety model. In the context of information and communication technology (ICT) developments and introduction of ICT into the operation and management of various facilities, over the past decades advanced methods have emerged for predicting the occurrence and development of emergency situations at facilities and enhancing management decisions on containment and elimination of emergency situations including fires.Goals and objectives. In this paper, the authors present a model that they developed to promptly forecast heat flows using artificial neural networks. The forecast model will improve the safety of fire brigade personnel responsible for extinguishing fires inside ground-based vertical steel tanks having protective walls. In the research, the authors place special emphasis on identifying dependence between the heat flow and the wind load. Methods. To achieve this goal, the authors arranged and conducted a series of experiments, collected experimental data on heat flows, and created training and test samples.Results. Dependences between heat flows and environmental factors were identified by constructing adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems or adaptive network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS). Various types of membership functions, optimisation and system generation methods were compared and it was found out that for ANFISs, prediction of heat flows with regard to and disregarding wind loads were optimal, if subcluster and hybrid optimisation methods were used, as they had lowest error values for samples.Discussion. The analysis shows that wind speed and tank location can rise temperatures of the air, tank wall and petrol. Therefore, despite the complexity of the analysis, the regard for all these factors makes it possible to identify a safe distance between a burning tank and firefighters.Conclusions. The research made it possible to develop a model for prompt heat flow forecasting with the help of artificial intelligence elements (ANFIS). The results obtained in the course of the work make it possible to increase the efficiency of prompt forecasting of the dynamic behaviour of fire inside tanks and tank farms and optimize managerial decision-making by responsible persons.

Universal Design of ICT for Emergency Management from Stakeholders\u2019 Perspective

While Universal Design principles have been adopted in many areas to ensure that products and services are usable for the broadest possible diversity of users, there is still an open area when it comes to the emergency management domain. This article aims at providing a systematic overview of the current state of the emerging research field of Universal Design of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for Emergency Management, and to highlight high-impact research opportunities to ensure that the increasing introduction of ICT in Emergency Management can contribute to removing barriers instead of adding more barriers, in particular for the elderly and people with disabilities. A systematic review on relevant literature on Universal Design, ICT and Emergency Management between 2008 and 2020 was employed using predefined frameworks, to answer the following questions: (1) Who are the target audiences (stakeholders) in research on Universal Design of ICT in Emergency Management in the different categories of Emergency Management ICT tools, and to what degree is Human-Centred Design and Universal Design taken into account? (2) What are the most important challenges and gaps in research on Universal Design of ICT in Emergency Management? We identify a set of gaps in the literature, indicating that there are some challenges where Universal Design is still limitedly addressed in technology development. We also derive promising future research topics based on areas that are missing in the literature.

The Impact of Compulsory Computer Studies on ICT Literacy at Junior Secondary Schools in Livingstone District

The study investigates the impact of compulsory computer studies (CS) on information and communication technology (ICT) literacy in secondary schools in the Livingstone District, Zambia. The objectives were to investigate the availability of specialised ICT teachers, to find out the availability of ICT equipment and infrastructure, and to establish the impacts of compulsory ICT. The study was mainly qualitative using primary data, however, had a component of quantitative research using secondary data in form of Examination Council of Zambia (ECZ), ICT examinations results for grade nine. The study established that the introduction of ICT as a compulsory subject had an impact on teacher and pupil literacy in ICT, and due to insufficient ICT equipment, may have negatively affected the performance of the pupils in the ICT final examination.

Information literacy training effectiveness on Cambodia's province-based undergraduates

PurposeThis study is aimed at determining the effect of a short-term information literacy training activity on the self-efficacy of undergraduate students at province-based universities in Cambodia.Design/methodology/approachA three-week training intervention was administered to 461 undergraduate students at three province-based public universities in Cambodia. The participants answered an information literacy self-efficacy questionnaire before and after the intervention.FindingsThe students' level of information literacy self-efficacy has a low mean score of 2.23 on a five-point scale before the training. After the training, the score dramatically increased to 3.64 and was statistically significant (p-value < 0.001). This indicates that short-term information literacy self-efficacy training is an effective means to promote information literacy among students.Research limitations/implicationsThis research scope was limited to examine the effect of a short-term intervention on a particular population. Further improvements include analyzing the training effects over the long term, soliciting qualitative feedback from respondents, and gathering previous relevant training data.Practical implicationsThere is a need for a carefully designed curriculum to be implemented that focuses on introducing information and communication technology (ICT) while considering its potential application to research activity. To be able to make meaningful curriculum changes, there must be a systematic way of identifying the ICT needs that are most urgent among undergraduate students in province-based Cambodian universities.Originality/valueThis research focuses on implementing ICT training and measuring its effectiveness on Cambodian undergraduate students in province-based universities, a growing population that has immense potential in influencing the country's growth but whose information literacy self-efficacy remains largely understudied until now.

New Ability Invigorated by ICT and Changing Hegemony in Bringing Up Educated Humans: A Historical Reflection

The aim of this paper is to discuss the changing ideals of ability to be educated in relation to information and communication technology (ICT) applied to tertiary educational spaces. It also examines whether such changes have marginalized students’ capabilities once they become accepted institutional practice. As a result of the development of higher learning since the Meiji restoration, Japan has achieved relatively high standards of «universities for all». Along with this expansion in higher education, Japan has institutionalized diverse learning opportunities. This paper discusses the changes that have been made to skills training in higher education, especially after the introduction of ICT into tertiary learning from the 1980s. First, the author examines the theoretical assumptions of problem setting in this paper, setting out the discussion of «the multitude». Second, there is a review of the historical transition of the concept of skills that university students should acquire. Third, the author describes to what extent the «new concept of ability» has been introduced into the university curriculum, especially in the relationship with the digital environment. Finally, to examine how the above historical background and discussions have been accepted as an effective and practical concept, the author conducted qualitative analysis of several universities’ syllabi data. Through this process, the author considered what aspects of «institutionalized value» (Illich, 1977) occur in the name of skills appropriate to the ICT/AI age. In addition, the author seeks out university attempts to create «commons» in which academic society endeavours to maintain critical and practical potential that forms the general intellect.

Healthcare Practitioners’ Experience and Perceptions on ICT-Related Training Programs: An Online Survey

Context: The application of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in healthcare had historically lagged behind when compared to other industries. Despite the benefits of adopting ICT in healthcare, many healthcare practitioners (particularly in developing countries) are yet to incorporate ICT into their practice or engage in ICT training as part of their continuing professional education (CPE). Aims: This study aims to examine healthcare practitioners on their level of exposure to ICT-related course/degree; perceived relevance of digital technologies in healthcare; opinions on the introduction of ICT in CPE programs; and recommendations on the frequency of participation in ICT-oriented training programs by health workers. Settings and Design: This study was a descriptive cross-sectional online survey of healthcare practitioners on social media. Methods and Material: This study surveyed a total of 216 healthcare practitioners using an e-questionnaire. Data collected was analyzed using SPSS version 22 software. The frequency distribution of all variables was determined. Chi square test was used to compare relationships among all variables with a p-value of <0.05 set to determine the level of statistical significance. Results: Majority (90.7%) of the respondents were from developing countries. Only 36.1% of the respondents had ever taken/obtained a course/degree related to ICT; 92.1% were of the opinion that ICT-oriented courses should have CPE points; and 42.1% recommended that healthcare workers should participate in ICT-oriented courses annually. However, there exist statistically significant differences between respondents’ history of engagement in an academic program related to ICT and their opinions about the digital future of healthcare; and enthusiasms toward using and/or promoting digital healthcare strategies (p-values<0.05). Conclusion: There is a need to introduce ICT-related courses into CPE programs of healthcare practitioners, more especially in the developing countries.

Typologization of Regions of the Russian Federation on Reasons of Refusal from Using Electronic Government Services

Today, the right choice of public policy mechanisms based on identifying pressing needs of users for realizing the economic, social and cultural benefits of introducing information and communication technology (ICT) tools when interacting with government bodies seems very relevant. However, regional differentiation of the level of development of information society requires the development of differentiated mechanisms for implementing electronic government projects. On the basis of the empirical analysis of regional features of objective reasons for the refusal by the rural population to use information and communication technology to get state and municipal services, a typology of the Russian regions for the share of the population that refused to use public services in electronic form for objective reasons is built. Based on the assessment of regression models, including indicators of the level of economic development of the regions, as well as the level of the ICT infrastructure development, factors that have the greatest influence on the objective reasons for the refusal of the rural population to use ICT tools to get state and municipal services for Russia as a whole and for different types of regions are identified. The paper establishes that the effectiveness of government measures to introduce e-government services and reduce the degree of differentiation of Russian regions on the use of this type of service depends on increasing investment in information and communication technologies, on reducing the cost of connecting and maintaining the ICT infrastructure for the rural population, as well as on the wide information work among the population about the benefits of using e-government services. It is also established that in terms of a sufficiently developed ICT infrastructure, the role of human capital is increasing in the number of factors influencing the objective reasons for non-use of the Internet to get state and municipal services.

Teachers’ Attitudes Towards the Introduction of ICT in Ecuadorian Public Schools

This article focus on the attitudes of teachers about the implementation of information and communication technologies (ICT) in Ecuadorian schools. While the advantages of ICT in education are well researched, much less is known about the attitudes of teachers towards them. This article provides a qualitative interpretative analysis of the opinions and attitudes of 56 teachers in Ecuador. The produced results acknowledged that implementation of ICT in schools is difficult task due to a lack of materials and resources, high organisational and social demands perceived by teachers, competition caused by younger teachers and students, and job and personal insecurity. Finally, this article suggests some aspects that should be considered and some actions that should be taken in order to minimize these negative aspects.

Facteurs géographiques influant sur le processus de diffusion des TIC dans le secteur de la santé. Une étude de cas (Préfecture de Nagasaki, Japon)

This paper illustrates the diffusion of information and communication technology (ICT) in the healthcare sector, using a case study focusing on a medical information system, namely, Ajisai Net, based in Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan. Regional differences in diffusion patterns and their factors are indicated through a focus on the decision-making of related actors, including system-promoting agencies. This study also clarifies the status of system utilization and the effects of and issues with the system. System utilization spreads through system-promoting agencies in the form of increases in information-disclosure facilities. The diffusion process of this case differed from the hierarchical effect. The city of Omura was the first place where participating facilities could access the system in the infrastructure-building phase, followed by Nagasaki and Kamigoto in the spatial-expansion phase, followed by Sasebo, Isahaya, and Shimabara when widespread dissemination was achieved to the entire prefecture. Based on the ICT’s utilization, the results demonstrate that the diffusion of medical information system was determined by existing social relations ; however, the degree of social relations was not always proportional to the size of the urban area. System-diffusion patterns were found to be a different form than those in previous studies. Nagasaki Prefecture contains many isolated islands and has large internal regional differences in medical resources. In response to these geographical conditions, cooperative relationships among healthcare providers had already been developed before the introduction of ICT. This study suggests that effective use of existing social relationships can establish governance that moves a pattern from competition to coexistence.

Information and communication technologies as a factor of innovative development of agricultural enterprises

Purpose. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical bases and modern applied aspects of the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the practical activity of enterprises of agro-industrial business. Methodology of research. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is the basic principles of economic theory and scientific development of scientists. The following methods are used in the course of the study: retrospective (analysis of economic efficiency, profitability of agricultural production in the regions of the country); monograph (coverage of statistical reporting indicators on the use of ICT in manufacturing in Ukraine); abstract and logical (theoretical generalizations and formation of conclusions, literary sources) and others. Findings. There is a clear tendency for the widespread use of ICT in the industries of the national economies of the advanced countries of the world, which contributes to the innovative development of production and a significant increase in profitability (up to 95%) in the enterprises of the processing industry and agro-industrial business. It is revealed that the use of ICT in Ukrainian enterprises is still at a low level and the main reason for this is the poor financial status of enterprises and insufficient state support. The use of ICT has been found to significantly accelerate soil analysis, determine the need and exact dosage of fertilizers, use of biological to control weeds and pests and other crop operations, which can double the crop yield. It is proved that the introduction of ICT in agro-industrial enterprises will accelerate the innovative development of the agro-industrial economy, increase the competitiveness of industries and enterprises in the market environment. Originality. A model of ICT management of making decision is proposed, which involves the availability of hardware (computers, smartphones, or iPhones and their software); Internet connection and availability of broadband access and Internet technology (social networks, website creation), through which you can actively promote your product, business, negotiate with suppliers and buyers, conduct sales and purchase operations. With the help of space technology and artificial intelligence, you can fully automate all production processes in plant and animal husbandry, eliminate the risks associated with human factors in all production processes, carry out effective planning, accounting, analysis and control of resource consumption at the enterprise, as well as take balanced management decisions. Practical value. The proposed scientific, methodological and practical developments make it possible to formulate a strategy for the effective development of ICT, which will facilitate the innovative development of agro-industrial business in a competitive environment. Key words: information and communication technologies; digitalization of agro-industrial enterprises; innovations; development strategy; efficiency; profitability; competition; agro-industrial business.

Електронна система охорони здоров’я у публічному адмініструванні: чи можливі електронні лікарі-боти

Електронна система охорони здоров’я у публічному адмініструванні: чи можливі електронні лікарі-боти

Explaining cross-country variation in collective action in the digital era

ABSTRACTThe digital era has ushered in a new collective action landscape that scholars are now trying to understand. To date, scholars have assumed homogeneity in the effect of ICT (information and communications technology) on collective action. In this article, I show that the effect of ICT on collective action is heterogeneous, and that it is sensitive to national and cultural context by conducting a cross-case comparison of Japan and South Korea. These two countries present a particularly illuminating pair of cases, with Korea showing consistently high levels of collective action and Japan showing consistently low levels of collective action despite the introduction and diffusion of ICT. I argue that this participation gap is in part due to differences in the way social network dynamics operate in the two countries. I show that social network size is more strongly associated with participation in protests, boycotts, and petitions (PBP) in Korea. Additionally, I find that social network heterogeneity has a positive association with participation in political groups in Korea, whereas the two variables have a negative association in Japan. I conclude by discussing the broader implications for our understanding of the relationship between collective action, social networks, and culture.

“Now I Do Academic Fast Food”: Grad Students in the ICT’s Era

Together with the widespread use of Information and communication Technologies (ICTs), global changes have taken place in most social environments. This article stands at the intersection of communication and education studies, by investigating the introduction and use of ICTs in students’ learning and everyday life. The aim of our research, indeed, is to explore the transformations in learning and academic information processing habits among students part of the School of Philosophy and Literature and that of Social Sciences at Buenos Aires University. Methodologically, we gathered targeted interviews with students and professors from said faculties (n: 140). Moreover, we undertook on-site observations at university libraries and virtual observations on social network sites and university websites. From the findings a paradox concerning the intensive use of ICTs emerges: greater accessibility, availability and information exchange lead to degrees of ‘distraction’, ‘superficiality’ and ‘speed’ in the fruition and circulation of content. Based on a native category, we have come to call this tendency “academic fast food”.

Preventing Technostress Through Positive Technology.

Over the past decade, the workplace has experienced significant changes as a result of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and the subsequent digital transformation (Mcafee, 2006; Matt et al., 2015). Such technological, cultural, and organizational changes have redefined business models and competition. As evidenced by the shift from the Enterprise 1.0 to the Enterprise 2.0 business models, ICTs offer companies increased productivity and efficiency (Bilbao-Osorio et al., 2013). At the same time, introduction of ICTs can pose a threat to both a company and its employees through misuse, abuse, and overuse, resulting in technostress (Gaudioso et al., 2017). This emerging risk seems to have become more evident in the past 10 years, as a consequence of the 2008 economic crisis. This difficult and challenging economic context was demonstrated to have negatively impacted workers' mental health on its own, due to the workers' perception of the crisis, lack of social support, and increased job stress (Giorgi et al., 2015; Mucci et al., 2016). The economic crisis has had two paradoxical effects that indirectly may have contributed to the raise of technostress. On the one hand, the crisis reduced the number of total worked hours, reducing the resources needed. On the other hand, at the same time, it increased the pressure on the workers: corporations reduced available personnel—and thus increased tasks and activities on those remaining—and introduced new technologies to support their employees, who are required to deal with a higher work load and with managing new and more complex flows of information. This article aims to present the technostress construct, and propose how Positive Technologies (Riva et al., 2012) can help prevent technostress, and promote positive work experiences and general well-being through an effective organizational safety culture (Galimberti, 2014; Galimberti et al., 2016).

USE OF EDUCATIONAL MULTIMEDIA PROGRAMMES IN THE PROFESSIONAL TRAINING OF FUTURE TEACHERS OF NATURAL SPECIALTIES

The development and dissemination of information and communication technologies (ICT) in all spheres of human life is a significant factor in the integration of Ukrainian society into the world. The urgency of the topic of research is determined by the current stage of formation and implementation of educational reform trends. The purpose of the article is to identify and explain the principles and methods of using educational multimedia programs in the professional training of naturalist teachers. Methods of research: theoretical (analysis of pedagogical, educational and methodical literature, generalization of received scientific information and experience of teaching staff in higher educational institutions in relation to introduction of ICT in the modern educational process); empirical (pedagogical observation, conversation). The organisation of qualitative management of cognitive activity in the process of using ICTs is consistent with the principles of stimulating and motivating the positive attitude of students towards interactive learning. Thus, this problem requires a revision of the pedagogical approaches to its solution, the choice of more effective educational methods in order to achieve future teachers of a higher level of information consciousness as a prerequisite for professional culture. It is also important to analyse, identify and justify ways of forming professional skills from biologists, environmentalists to use multimedia applications. Different types of teaching aids for the organisation and computer support of educational and cognitive activity are analysed. Examples and characteristics of distributed and publicly available means of information and communication technologies for future teachers of natural sciences are given, taking into account their methodological and practical significance. Biology, ecology, natural sciences, foundations of health are those educational subjects that have rich material for working out the most diverse methods and methods of work with information sources. Teaching natural sciences involves the use of a large amount of information, which makes ICT use particularly effective and simply necessary, since it allows you to work very quickly with charts, tables, diagrams, and to determine the relationship between different objects and phenomena, structures, and functions. Continuously integrated application of traditional and multimedia technologies ensures mastery of future educators not only deep and solid knowledge, but also develops their intellectual, search, creative abilities. So, according to interactive computer technologies, the future of modern education.

Diseño e implementación de una propuesta didáctica por medio de la utilización de herramientas virtuales para el aprendizaje de inmunología en enfermedad periodontal

Introducción: el contexto actual presenta diversas posibilidades para la innovación en el campo educativo, siendo una de estas la utilización de las Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicación (TIC). En odontología los esfuerzos para la introducción de las TIC en los procesos de enseñanza-aprendizaje han sido progresivos y algo difíciles, debido a las características propias de la disciplina, la cual exige prácticas pre-clínicas y con pacientes. Sin embargo, la infinidad de herramientas que ofrecen las TIC han hecho que sean más atractivas, versátiles y útiles para el fortalecimiento de procesos educativos en áreas complejas. En el área de periodoncia se presenta una dificultad para el aprendizaje de Inmunología en Enfermedad Periodontal por la cantidad de horas dedicadas y su complejidad. Objetivo: diseñar e implementar una propuesta didáctica a través de herramientas virtuales para fortalecer el proceso de aprendizaje respecto a la inmunología en enfermedad periodontal. Materiales y métodos: investigación cualitativa de tipo investigación-acción. Se elaboró una plataforma en Moodle con cinco módulos, cada uno con objetivos de carácter cognitivo, procedimental y actitudinal; así como el planteamiento de actividades que fortalecieran el aprendizaje del estudiante y un proceso evaluativo, en el cual tanto el tutor como el estudiante forman parte activa dando lugar a una evaluación procesual. Discusión y conclusión: aunque la elaboración de este tipo de propuestas se redefine constantemente en la práctica, son una estrategia útil en odontología, la cual arrojaría resultados satisfactorios para el fortalecimiento de procesos de aprendizaje en aquellos temas que presentan mayor dificultad.

THE PSYCHOSOCIAL AND COGNITIVE INFLUENCE OF ICT ON COMPETENCES OF STEM STUDENTS

Information and communications technology (ICT) shapes life and work in every educational system. Where to place ICT in the pedagogical process and how it affects students' psychosocial and cognitive abilities are questions that do not have one definitive answer. The research addresses the intense introduction of ICT that accords with educational trends and the requirements of today’s society, but sometimes neglects social competences and any potential psychosocial effects. A need for new and effective methods in upbringing and education to offer everyone, equal opportunities become more and more important in the “world of the 21st century”. The research also proved that innovative didactic methods of teaching (4.0) using a transdisciplinary model and supported by state-of-the-art information and communications technology as well as cooperative learning, have a positive psychosocial effect on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) students. Students who experience innovative didactic teaching supported by ICT reach higher taxonomic, cognitive and social standards of competence and are thus better prepared for the challenges of future society. Keywords: cognitive competences, education system, ICT, psychosocial influence, social competences.

Introduction of Information and Communication Technologies in the Library Local History Studies

Introduction of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the Library Regional Studies is an important task in building an open information society. The aim of this work is to determine the main development trends in the library local history studies using the ICT. Based on the analysis of materials of conferences organized by the Russian Library Association in the period 2009—2016, this work highlights the large group of scientific publications describing the process of introduction of ICT into the mainstream of local history library activities: formation of the collections of local history documents, creation and utilization of local history reference and search tools, reference-bibliographic and information services, formation of system of local history bibliographic products, distribution of local history knowledge, as well as methodical and research activities. There are revealed the main results of computerizing by libraries the processes of creating the local history information products and providing the local history user services: digitization of local history documents, creation of full-text resources of local history; providing the remote access to local history reference and search tools, development of corporate cataloguing; the growth in demand for virtual services and electronic delivery of documents; use of Web 2.0 technologies to promote local history knowledge; comprehensive representation of the unique local history information on the website or portal; creation of multimedia products, etc. Theoretical and methodical problems of implementing ICT in library local studies are identified.

A Heuristic Model of the Spatial Interaction between Job Locations & the Potential Employees in Urban Metropolitan Areas

The wide spread of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) reshapes the nature of urban development and economic growth. ICT introduces a new online recruitment dimension for the employers and potential employees (job seekers) locations in both public and private sectors. Therefore, the introduction of ICT affects the economic growth as part of urban planning process. The researchers pay little attention to understand specifically how ICT changes the spatial interaction between the job locations and employees. There is a little attention on how the ICT reshapes the labor market and housing development. Moreover, the interaction between job locations and the employees has spatial characteristics. Consequently, there is a need to model the changes in this relationship (spatial and non-spatial) in-depth to sustain the economic growth. The first implication of the research draws the relationship between urban features of jobs and the employees’ choices by combining findings from the previous extensive literature. The second objective introduces a heuristic model that describes the rules for job locations and potential employees in urban area. Such a model can support decision making of allocating the future housing settlements as well as monitoring the expected migration rates between various urban metropolitan areas.