Intrinsic Population Growth Rate Research Articles

The Effects of Bean Leafroll Virus on Life History Traits and Host Selection Behavior of Specialized Pea Aphid (Acyrthosiphon pisum, Hemiptera: Aphididae) Genotypes.

Intraspecific specialization by insect herbivores on different host plant species contributes to the formation of genetically distinct "host races," but the effects of plant virus infection on interactions between specialized herbivores and their host plants have barely been investigated. Using three genetically and phenotypically divergent pea aphid clones (Acyrthosiphon pisum L.) adapted to either pea (Pisum sativum L.) or alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), we tested how infection of these hosts by an insect-borne phytovirus (Bean leafroll virus; BLRV) affects aphid performance and preference. Four important findings emerged: 1) mean aphid survival rate and intrinsic rate of population growth (Rm) were increased by 15% and 14%, respectively, for aphids feeding on plants infected with BLRV; 2) 34% of variance in survival rate was attributable to clone × host plant interactions; 3) a three-way aphid clone × host plant species × virus treatment significantly affected intrinsic rates of population growth; and 4) each clone exhibited a preference for either pea or alfalfa when choosing between noninfected host plants, but for two of the three clones tested these preferences were modestly reduced when selecting among virus-infected host plants. Our studies show that colonizing BLRV-infected hosts increased A. pisum survival and rates of population growth, confirming that the virus benefits A. pisum. BLRV transmission affected aphid discrimination of host plant species in a genotype-specific fashion, and we detected three unique "virus-association phenotypes," with potential consequences for patterns of host plant use by aphid populations and crop virus epidemiology.

Coping with the loss of large, energy-dense prey: a potential bottleneck for Weddell Seals in the Ross Sea.

Extraction of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the Ross Sea began in 1997, following a management plan that targets the largest fish with a goal of reducing the spawning biomass by 50% over 35yr. We investigate the potential long-term consequences of the reduced availability of this prey for Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii). Energy demands in seals are acute, especially immediately following lactation, when females must recover substantial mass and cope with molting costs. We tested the hypothesis that toothfish are critically important for adult female seals during this period. Toothfish body mass is three orders of magnitude greater, and its energy density nearly double that of the most common seal prey, Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarcticum). Reduction or elimination of toothfish consumption could impair a female's ability to sufficiently recover and successfully produce a pup in the following pupping season. Our goals are to (1) illustrate mechanisms and conditions whereby toothfish depletion might plausibly affect seal population trends; (2) identify measurable parameters of the seals' ecology that may help better understand the potential negative impact of toothfish depletion on seal populations; and (3) promote a precautionary management approach for the fishery that includes monitoring of seal populations We constructed a set of inter-linked models of seal diving behavior, physiological condition, and demography based on existing information. We evaluate the effect of the following factors on seal mass recovery and intrinsic population growth rates: fishery depletion rate, daily diving limits, probability of a successful dive, and body mass recovery target. We show that loss of toothfish has the greatest potential impact on seal populations' growth rate. Under some scenarios, populations may decrease at >10% per year. Critical parameters to better understand fishery impacts include prevalence and size of toothfish in the seals' diet; the relationship between diet and the rate of mass recovery; and female breeding propensity in relation to body condition at the end of the molting period. Our results lend support to concerns about the potential negative impact of toothfish extraction in the Ross Sea; and to advocate for a precautionary management approach by the fishery.

Life-history responses to environmental change revealed by resurrected rotifers from a historically polluted lake

Life-history adaptations to environmental change can be studied retrospectively in organisms that produce dormant propagules using methods of resurrection ecology. Here, we investigated such responses in a planktonic freshwater rotifer, Brachionus calyciflorus. We resurrected 14 clonal lineages from resting eggs extracted from three distinct sediment layers—representing periods of high, medium and low copper pollution—of a previously contaminated lake (Lake Orta, Italy). We exposed the resurrected clones to four copper concentrations over 14 days and recorded population densities at 48 h intervals. If the original populations in Lake Orta had adapted to the changing pollution levels, we expected to find demographic evidence of this adaptation in the resurrected lineages. However, we found high clonal variation in population-growth dynamics, which was more pronounced within than between pollution periods. Moreover, intrinsic population growth rates (r) increased chronologically. As such, the results did not reveal signs of adaptive evolution. Furthermore, we found that lineages from the period of medium copper pollution invested less into sexual reproduction than lineages from the other periods. By using this bio-demographic perspective, our analysis of resurrected rotifers provides insights into the life-history responses of an aquatic invertebrate in an ever-changing environment.

A Locust Phase Change Model with Multiple Switching States and Random Perturbation

Insects such as locusts and some moths can transform from a solitarious phase when they remain in loose populations and a gregarious phase, when they may swarm. Therefore, the key to effective management of outbreaks of species such as the desert locust Schistocercagregaria is early detection of when they are in the threshold state between the two phases, followed by timely control of their hopper stages before they fledge because the control of flying adult swarms is costly and often ineffective. Definitions of gregarization thresholds should assist preventive control measures and avoid treatment of areas that might not lead to gregarization. In order to better understand the effects of the threshold density which represents the gregarization threshold on the outbreak of a locust population, we developed a model of a discrete switching system. The proposed model allows us to address: (1) How frequently switching occurs from solitarious to gregarious phases and vice versa; (2) When do stable switching transients occur, the existence of which indicate that solutions with larger amplitudes can switch to a stable attractor with a value less than the switching threshold density?; and (3) How does random perturbation influence the switching pattern? Our results show that both subsystems have refuge equilibrium points, outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria. Further, the outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria can coexist for a wide range of parameters and can switch from one to another. This type of switching is sensitive to the intrinsic growth rate and the initial values of the locust population, and may result in locust population outbreaks and phase switching once a small perturbation occurs. Moreover, the simulation results indicate that the switching transient patterns become identical after some generations, suggesting that the evolving process of the perturbation system is not related to the initial value after some fixed number of generations for the same stochastic processes. However, the switching frequency and outbreak patterns can be significantly affected by the intensity of noise and the intrinsic growth rate of the locust population.

Assessing the effects of hybridization and precipitation on invasive weed demography using strength of selection on vital rates.

BackgroundAs global climate change transforms average temperature and rainfall, species distributions may meet, increasing the potential for hybridization and altering individual fitness and population growth. Altered rainfall specifically may shift the strength and direction of selection, also manipulating population trajectories. Here, we investigated the role of interspecific hybridization and selection imposed by rainfall on the evolution of weedy life-history in non-hybrid (Raphanus raphanistrum) and hybrid (R. raphanistrum x R. sativus) populations using a life table response experiment.ResultsIn documenting long-term population dynamics, we determined intrinsic (r) and asymptotic (λ) population growth rates and sensitivities, a measure of selection imposed on demographic rates. Hybrid populations experienced 8.7-10.3 times stronger selection than wild populations for increased seedling survival. Whereas crop populations generally exhibit little dormancy and wild populations often exhibit dormancy, non-hybrid populations experienced 10% stronger selection than hybrid populations for exhibiting seed dormancy. Selection on survival-to-flowering in wild, not hybrid, populations declined marginally with increasing soil moisture. Hybrid populations exhibited greater r, but not λ, than wild populations regardless of moisture environment. In general, fecundity contributed most to differences in λ but fecundity only contributed positively to hybrid λ relative to wild λ when precipitation was altered (either higher or lower than control) and not under control watering conditions.ConclusionsSelection on key demographic traits may not change dramatically in response to rainfall, and hybridization may more strongly influence the demography of these weedy species than rainfall. If hybrid populations can respond to selection for increased dormancy, this may make it more difficult to deplete weed seed banks and increase the persistence of crop genes in weed populations.

Validation of a two-generational reproduction test in Daphnia magna: An interlaboratory exercise.

Effects observed within one generation disregard potential detrimental effects that may appear across generations. Previously we have developed a two generation Daphnia magna reproduction test using the OECD TG 211 protocol with a few amendments, including initiating the second generation with third brood neonates produced from first generation individuals. Here we showed the results of an inter-laboratory calibration exercise among 12 partners that aimed to test the robustness and consistency of a two generation Daphnia magna reproduction test. Pyperonyl butoxide (PBO) was used as a test compound. Following experiments, PBO residues were determined by TQD-LC/MS/MS. Chemical analysis denoted minor deviations of measured PBO concentrations in freshly prepared and old test solutions and between real and nominal concentrations in all labs. Other test conditions (water, food, D. magna clone, type of test vessel) varied across partners as allowed in the OECD test guidelines. Cumulative fecundity and intrinsic population growth rates (r) were used to estimate "No observed effect concentrations "NOEC using the solvent control as the control treatment. EC10 and EC-50 values were obtained regression analyses. Eleven of the twelve labs succeeded in meeting the OECD criteria of producing >60 offspring per female in control treatments during 21days in each of the two consecutive generations. Analysis of variance partitioning of cumulative fecundity indicated a relatively good performance of most labs with most of the variance accounted for by PBO (56.4%) and PBO by interlaboratory interactions (20.2%), with multigenerational effects within and across PBO concentrations explaining about 6% of the variance. EC50 values for reproduction and population growth rates were on average 16.6 and 20.8% lower among second generation individuals, respectively. In summary these results suggest that the proposed assay is reproducible but cumulative toxicity in the second generation cannot reliably be detected with this assay.

Growth, productivity and relative extinction risk of a data-sparse devil ray

Devil rays (Mobula spp.) face intensifying fishing pressure to meet the ongoing international demand for gill plates. The paucity of information on growth, mortality, and fishing effort for devil rays make quantifying population growth rates and extinction risk challenging. Furthermore, unlike manta rays (Manta spp.), devil rays have not been listed on CITES. Here, we use a published size-at-age dataset for the Spinetail Devil Ray (Mobula japanica), to estimate somatic growth rates, age at maturity, maximum age, and natural and fishing mortality. We then estimate a plausible distribution of the maximum intrinsic population growth rate (rmax) and compare it to 95 other chondrichthyans. We find evidence that larger devil ray species have low somatic growth rate, low annual reproductive output, and low maximum population growth rates, suggesting they have low productivity. Fishing rates of a small-scale artisanal Mexican fishery were comparable to our estimate of rmax, and therefore probably unsustainable. Devil ray rmax is very similar to that of manta rays, indicating devil rays can potentially be driven to local extinction at low levels of fishing mortality and that a similar degree of protection for both groups is warranted.

Population-level effects of abamectin, azadirachtin and fenpyroximate on the predatory mite Neoseiulus baraki.

The coconut production system, in which the coconut mite Aceria guerreronis is considered a key pest, provides an interesting model for integration of biological and chemical control. In Brazil, the most promising biological control agent for the coconut mite is the phytoseiid predator Neoseiulus baraki. However, acaricides are widely used to control the coconut mite, although they frequently produce unsatisfactory results. In this study, we evaluated the simultaneous direct effect of dry residue contact and contaminated prey ingestion of the main acaricides used on coconut palms (i.e., abamectin, azadirachtin and fenpyroximate) on life-history traits of N. baraki and their offspring. These acaricides are registered, recommended and widely used against A. guerreronis in Brazil, and they were tested at their label rates. The offspring of the exposed predators was also evaluated by estimating the instantaneous rate of population increase (r i ). Abamectin compromised female performance, whereas fenpyroximate did not affect the exposed females (F0). Nonetheless, fenpyroximate strongly compromised the offspring (F1) net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of population growth (r i ), and doubling time (DT). In contrast, fenpyroximate did not have such effects on the 2nd generation (F2) of predators with acaricide-exposed grandparents. Azadirachtin did not affect the predators, suggesting that this acaricide can be used in association with biological control by this predatory species. In contrast, the use of abamectin and fenpyroximate is likely to lead to adverse consequences in the biological control of A. guerreronis using N. baraki.

Evaluating the Biological Cycle and Reproductive and Population Parameters of Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Reared on Three Different Diets.

This work was aimed at evaluating Calliphora vicina Robineau-Desvoidy (Diptera: Calliphoridae) life cycle, life tables, and reproductive and population parameters. This species is a necrophagous, synanthropic, cosmopolitan fly with broad distribution in the Neotropical region. Six successive generations from adult specimens collected in Bogotá, Colombia, were analyzed in laboratory conditions. The fly's life cycle was evaluated, using a natural diet of pig's liver (L) and two artificial diets-milk powder and egg (ME) and powdered liver (PL). The species' longest life cycle duration (in days), from egg to pupa, was obtained with the ME diet (24.6 ± 6.7) whereas the lowest value was recorded with the L diet (18.8 ± 3.6). Female adult forms achieved high longevity values, this being highest in ME (102.8 ± 3.6). The most efficient diets (L and ME) led to the following average reproductive and population values: 226.2 and 465.4 net reproductive rate (Ro), 22.2 and 47.1 cohort generation time (Tc), 0.24 and 0.13 intrinsic population growth rate (rm), and 1.27 and 1.13 finite rate of increase (λ). The set of results (in terms of relatively high average values concerning the biological characteristics analyzed) showed the species' adaptability to the environmental and nutritional conditions established in a laboratory setting, thereby enabling their colonization.

Perspectives on the intrinsic rate of population growth

Summary The intrinsic rate of population increase (rmax) is a fundamental metric in ecology and evolution of immediate practical application in conservation and wildlife management. I examine the interpretation of rmax by revisiting the theory behind the density‐independent and density‐dependent paradigms. The criticism that density‐independent approaches underestimate rmax per se, often expressed in the field of fisheries, is shown to be theoretically unfounded. The difficulty in estimating rmax is due to lack of knowledge on the depletion level of the population rather than theory. I reviewed a method commonly used to estimate extinction risk of marine and terrestrial populations and show that it has been used incorrectly. I also examined five other methods to calculate rmax, the Euler–Lotka equation, and four other methods derived from it. I used the same data inputs for a suite of 65 shark populations with a broad range of life histories as an example to show that the incorrectly used extinction risk method overestimates rmax. I compared the rmax values for sharks obtained with the incorrectly applied extinction risk method to published values for other vertebrate taxa to further show that this method generates implausible values for this group of predators. I advocate focusing on obtaining estimates of all required vital rates simultaneously when possible while taking into consideration the exploitation history of the population under study as a pragmatic way to provide plausible estimates of rmax. The Euler–Lotka equation and its derivations are recommended for different degrees of data availability, particularly for slow‐ and medium‐growing populations, to provide sensible advice for conservation and management of living vertebrates in situations where a series of credible abundance estimates are not available as is often the case in marine systems. Methods that combine allometry and demography should also be further explored.

Performance of Eriopis connexa (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) resistant to lambda-cyhalothrin after extended recovery from knockdown.

A population of the predatory lady beetle Eriopis connexa (Germar) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) was recorded as resistant to lambda-cyhalothrin. Adults exposed to this insecticide have recovered from knockdown after 72h. Thus, the performance of resistant (R) and susceptible (S) populations of E. connexa not exposed to insecticide (R0 and S0) and R adults recovering from knockdown 24, 48, and 72h after exposure (R24, R48, and R72) was studied. In addition, the fertility life table parameters were calculated for one generation considering the progenies from R0, S0, and R24 populations. The recovery rate from knockdown was 69.4% for R-adults, and greater recovery rate was observed within 48h following lambda-cyhalothrin exposure. The S-females produced about 50% more eggs and lived longer, when compared with R-females irrespective of the recovery periods after knockdown. The R-females produced similar number of eggs and exhibited similar longevity across all treatments (R0, R24, R48, and R72). Progenies produced by R- and S-populations did not exhibit consistent differences in development and survival. The fertility life table parameters showed higher intrinsic rate of population growth (rm) and lower mean generation time (T) for R0- and R24-females, when compared with those for S0-females. Thus, the time interval needed to recover from knockdown is not related to the adaptive cost of resistance in E. connexa.

Multigenerational effect of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) on the individual fitness and population growth of Daphnia magna

We investigated the multigenerational effect of PFOS to individual fitness (e.g., body weight, acetylcholinesterase and glutathione S-transferase) and population growth (e.g., offspring number and time to first brood) of Daphnia magna during continuous and discontinuous exposures. The intrinsic rate of population growth was also calculated. In the continuous exposure, population growth-related adverse effects were detected during all test periods, and the adverse effect tended to be weaker in later generations. On the other hand, individual fitness-related adverse effects were observed from F1 not in F0 and deteriorated as the generation number increased. These results imply that individual fitness worsens although the population growth is restored in later generations. Upon discontinuous exposure, a few but significant adverse effects were observed during the non-exposure period and highest effects were detected during the re-exposure period. This encourages the study of different exposure scenarios, which may result in unexpected and higher PFOS toxicity. Consequently, this study confirms adverse effects of PFOS to Daphnia magna in multigenerational period and supports reasons for studies linking individual fitness changes to population dynamics and covering diverse exposure scenarios to evaluate the risk of PFOS in a water environment.

The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico-physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies.

Sustainability assessment of Plain Pigeons and White-crowned Pigeons illegally hunted in Puerto Rico

ABSTRACT The Puerto Rican Plain Pigeon (Patagioenas inornata wetmorei) and the White-crowned Pigeon (P. leucocephala) are hunted illegally in Puerto Rico, despite being protected. Data are lacking to estimate how many are hunted illegally each year. For this reason, we used abundance estimates derived from distance sampling surveys conducted in 1986–2014 to (1) fit a Bayesian state-space model, (2) estimate posterior distributions for population and harvest management parameters (e.g., growth rate, carrying capacity, and maximum sustainable harvest rate), and (3) predict abundance in 2025 as a function of potential illegal hunting in 2015–2024. For the Plain Pigeon and White-crowned Pigeon, respectively, the intrinsic rate of population growth was 0.351 (95% credible interval = 0.086–0.737) and 0.352 (0.094–0.699), population carrying capacity was 55,840 (29,649–96,505) and 73,692 (47,225–98,434) individuals, maximum sustainable harvest rate was 0.176 (0.043–0.369 and 0.047–0.349), and predicted abundance...

Quantifying the population response of invasive water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes, to biological control and winter weather in Louisiana, USA

Water hyacinth, Eichhornia crassipes, is an invasive, tropical, aquatic plant that has caused significant environmental and economic damage since its establishment in Louisiana, USA, in 1884. Both invasion control programs and freezing temperatures are known to negatively affect water hyacinth populations; however, the combined impact of these factors on water hyacinth population dynamics has not yet been quantified, thereby limiting the ability to isolate the effectiveness of biocontrol and other types of control under variable weather conditions. We built a seasonal logistic population model that included time-varying intrinsic growth and overwinter mortality parameters which were estimated by fitting the model to vegetation survey data. We estimated that annual overwinter mortality rates declined from a peak of 71 % in 1977 to the time series low of 11 % in the winter of 1992, followed by an average of 28 % per year from 1993 to 2013. After accounting for the magnitude and trend of overwinter dieback events, our model predicted that the intrinsic growth rate of the Louisiana water hyacinth population declined by 84 % between 1976 and 2013. Despite higher average winter temperatures in recent decades, the population has not rebounded. Our study reveals the dramatic effectiveness of Louisiana’s biological control program to successfully suppress water hyacinth invasion.

An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species-specific information. The framework facilitates the estimation of extinction vulnerabilities of data-deficient species. It may be applied to forecast extinction vulnerability in response to a changing environment, by incorporating quantitative relationships between wildlife demographic parameters and environmental drivers like habitat alteration, climate change, or hunting.

Defining invasiveness and invasibility in ecological networks

The success of a biological invasion is context dependent, and yet two key concepts—the invasiveness of species and the invasibility of recipient ecosystems—are often defined and considered separately. We propose a framework that can elucidate the complex relationship between invasibility and invasiveness. It is based on trait-mediated interactions between species and depicts the response of an ecological network to the intrusion of an alien species, drawing on the concept of community saturation. Here, invasiveness of an introduced species with a particular trait is measured by its per capita population growth rate when the initial propagule pressure of the introduced species is very low. The invasibility of the recipient habitat or ecosystem is dependent on the structure of the resident ecological network and is defined as the total width of an opportunity niche in the trait space susceptible to invasion. Invasibility is thus a measure of network instability. We also correlate invasibility with the asymptotic stability of resident ecological network, measured by the leading eigenvalue of the interaction matrix that depicts trait-based interaction intensity multiplied by encounter rate (a pairwise product of propagule pressure of all members in a community). We further examine the relationship between invasibility and network architecture, including network connectance, nestedness and modularity. We exemplify this framework with a trait-based assembly model under perturbations in ways to emulate fluctuating resources and random trait composition in ecological networks. The maximum invasiveness of a potential invader (greatest intrinsic population growth rate) was found to be positively correlated with invasibility of the recipient ecological network. Additionally, ecosystems with high network modularity and high ecological stability tend to exhibit high invasibility. Where quantitative data are lacking we propose using a qualitative interaction matrix of the ecological network perceived by a potential invader so that the structural network stability and invasibility can be estimated from the literature or from expert opinion. This approach links network structure, invasiveness and invasibility in the context of trait-mediated interactions, such as the invasion of insects into mutualistic and antagonistic networks.

Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island, Southern Ocean

AbstractRecent pup population estimates of sympatric Subantarctic (Arctocephalus tropicalis) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) at Marion Island are presented. Published pup population estimates of A. tropicalis (1995 and 2004) with an unpublished total island count in 2013, and annual counts on subsets of rookeries (2007–2015) were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian model. The pup population declined by 46% (95% credible interval CI: 43%–48%) between 2004 (mean = 15,260, CI: 14,447–16,169 pups) and 2013 (mean = 8,312, CI: 7,983–8,697), mirrored by a 58%–60% decline at rookeries counted annually (2007–2015). Population decline was highest at high‐density west and north coast rookeries, despite negligible change in female attendance patterns, pup mortality or median pupping date over the previous 25 yr. A better understanding of foraging behavior and its effects on reproductive success and survival in this A. tropicalis population is needed before we can attribute population decline to any external factors. In contrast, total island counts of A. gazella pups in 2007, 2010, and 2013, suggest that this population is still increasing although the annual intrinsic rate of population growth decreased from 17.0% (1995–2004, 744 pups) to 4.0% (2010–2013, 1,553 pups). The slowed growth of A. gazella is likely the result of saturation at the main rookery.

Improved estimation of intrinsic growth r(max) for long-lived species: integrating matrix models and allometry.

Intrinsic population growth rate (r(max)) is an important parameter for many ecological applications, such as population risk assessment and harvest management. However, r(max) can be a difficult parameter to estimate, particularly for long-lived species, for which appropriate life table data or abundance time series are typically not obtainable. We describe a method for improving estimates of r(max) for long-lived species by integrating life-history theory (allometric models) and population-specific demographic data (life table models). Broad allometric relationships, such as those between life history traits and body size, have long been recognized by ecologists. These relationships are useful for deriving theoretical expectations for r(max), but r(max) for real populations may vary from simple allometric estimators for "archetypical" species of a given taxa or body mass. Meanwhile, life table approaches can provide population-specific estimates of r(max) from empirical data, but these may have poor precision from imprecise and missing vital rate parameter estimates. Our method borrows strength from both approaches to provide estimates that are consistent with both life-history theory and population-specific empirical data, and are likely to be more robust than estimates provided by either method alone. Our method uses an' allometric constant: the product of r(max) and the associated generation time for a stable-age population growing at this rate. We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the mean and variance of this allometric constant across well-studied populations from three vertebrate taxa (birds, mammals, and elasmobranchs) and found that the mean was approximately 1.0 for each taxon. We used these as informative Bayesian priors that determine how much to "shrink" imprecise vital rate estimates for a data-limited population toward the allometric expectation. The approach ultimately provides estimates of r(max) (and other vital rates) that reflect a balance of information from the individual studied population, theoretical expectation, and meta-analysis of other populations. We applied the method specifically to an archetypical petrel (representing the genus Procellaria) and to white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) in the context of estimating sustainable-fishery bycatch limits.

Disease Spread and Its Effect on Population Dynamics in Heterogeneous Environment

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model in which both species diffuse along a spatial gradient has been shown to exhibit temporal chaos at a fixed point in space. The proposed model is a modification of the model recently presented by Upadhyay and Roy [2014]. The spatial interactions among the species have been represented in the form of reaction–diffusion equations. The model incorporates the intrinsic growth rate of fish population which varies linearly with the depth of water. Numerical results show that diffusion can drive otherwise stable system into aperiodic behavior with sensitivity to initial conditions. We show that spatially induced chaos plays an important role in spatial pattern formation in heterogeneous environment. Spatiotemporal distributions of species have been simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural eco-epidemic systems. We found that in heterogeneous environment, the temporal dynamics of both the species are drastically different and show chaotic behavior. It was also found that the instability observed in the model is due to spatial heterogeneity and diffusion-driven. Cumulative death rate of predator has an appreciable effect on model dynamics as the spatial distribution of all constituent populations exhibit significant changes when this model parameter is changed and it acts as a regularizing factor.