Intraslab Earthquakes Research Articles

Not trench-parallel but trench-normal source fault of the 1994 Hokkaido Toho-oki earthquake as revealed by the aftershock relocation using HypoDD

In the southwestern area of the Kurile Islands subduction zone, three large earthquakes including the Mw8.2 1969 and the Mw8.3 1994 Hokkaido Toho-oki earthquakes and the Mw7.8 1975 tsunami earthquake occurred in almost the same location. The three main shocks and their aftershocks were re-determined simultaneously using a double-difference earthquake location method, HypoDD. As a result, the 1969 and the 1975 main shocks and their aftershocks were concentrated near the upper surface of the subducting Pacific plate, indicating that both events were plate boundary megathrust earthquakes as shown by previous studies. On the other hand, the 1994 main shock and its aftershocks were distributed within the Pacific plate indicating that the 1994 event was an intraslab event as reported by previous studies. The result that interplate earthquakes and intraslab earthquakes could be appropriately distinguished is strong evidence that the accuracy of hypocenter determination is sufficiently high. The centroid moment tensor solution of the 1994 main shock has two nodal planes which are parallel or normal to the Kurile Trench. According to the high-resolution hypocenter distribution obtained in the present study, the aftershocks appear to locate on the nodal plane normal to the trench, suggesting that the source fault ruptured by the 1994 main shock was not parallel but normal to the Kurile Trench. Moreover, we found that the Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) produced by the trench-normal fault plane is more likely to trigger the largest aftershock than ΔCFS produced by the trench-parallel fault plane.Graphical abstract

Post-glacial stratigraphy and late Holocene record of great Cascadia earthquakes in Ozette Lake, Washington, USA

Ozette Lake is an ~100-m-deep coastal lake located along the outer coast of the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA); it is situated above the locked portion of the northern Cascadia megathrust but also relatively isolated from active crustal faults and intraslab earthquakes. Here we present a suite of geophysical and geological evidence for earthquake-triggered mass transport deposits (MTDs) and related turbidite deposition in Ozette Lake since ca. 14 ka. Comprehensive high-resolution bathymetry data, seismic reflection profiles, and sediment cores are used to characterize the post-glacial stratigraphic framework and examine paleoseismic evidence in the lacustrine sediments. Stacked sequences of MTDs along the steep eastern flanks of the lake appear to grade basin-ward from thick, chaotic, blocky masses to thin, parallel-bedded turbidite beds. The discrete turbidite event layers are separated by fine-grained (silt and clay) lake sedimentation. The event layers are observed throughout the lake, but the physical characteristics of the deposits vary considerably depending on proximity to primary depocenters, steep slopes, and subaqueous deltas. A total of 30–34 event deposits are observed in the post-glacial record. Radiometric dating was used to reconstruct a detailed sedimentation history over the last ~5.5 k.y., develop an age model, and estimate the recurrence (365–405 yr) for the most recent 12 event layers. Based on sedimentological characteristics, temporal overlap with other regional paleoseismic chronologies, and recurrence estimates, at least 10 of the dated event layers appear to be sourced from slope failures triggered by intense shaking during megathrust ruptures; the recurrence interval for these 10 events is 440–560 yr. Thus, Ozette Lake contains one of the longest and most robust geological records of repeated shaking along the northern Cascadia subduction zone.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic experiences moderate to high seismic hazard mostly caused by oblique convergence at the Caribbean/North American plate boundary that manifests as subduction zones, less-pronounced subduction-like trenches with thrust faulting, long strike-slip faults parallel to the plate boundary, and onshore deformation. Historical earthquakes have damaged the Dominican Republic’s large cities and those in neighboring Haiti, once requiring relocation. Given this, the Dominican Republic joined the “Training and Communication for Earthquake Risk Assessment” (TREQ) project funded by the United States Agency for International Development, which aimed to increase earthquake risk assessment capacity in Latin American cities. The TREQ project was the basis for developing an openly available probabilistic seismic hazard model for the Dominican Republic. The input model was developed from two main datasets: a homogenized earthquake catalog and an active faults database that combines results of recent local projects with a global database. The seismic source characterization used these to constrain source geometries and occurrence rates for active shallow crustal earthquakes, subduction interfaces and subduction-like thrusts, and intraslab earthquakes. Shallow crustal earthquakes, including those on subduction-like thrusts, are modeled by smoothed seismicity and fault sources, the latter using pre-defined geometries that permit multi-fault ruptures. Seismicity on the Puerto Rico Trench subduction interface is modeled as a fault source, while intraslab sources use pre-defined gridded ruptures inside the intraslab volume. The source characterization applies epistemic uncertainties to modeling assumptions affecting occurrence rates and maximum magnitudes. The ground motion characterization used residual analyses from past regional projects as a basis, updating some components with more recent ground motion models. Computed hazard results reinforce those from recent studies in terms of geographical hazard patterns and levels. For 475-year return periods, peak ground acceleration (PGA) in Santiago de los Caballeros reaches 0.50 g, controlled by the Septentrional Fault, while all tectonic region types contribute to the PGA 0.31 g computed for Santo Domingo.

Constraints on the 2013 Saravan intraslab earthquake using permanent GNSS, InSAR and seismic data

SUMMARY On 16 April 2013, an Mw = 7.7 earthquake struck the border of Iran and Pakistan in the central part of the Makran subduction zone with a reported depth of 80 km by USGS. This rare event in this poorly instrumented region helps to shed light on the kinematics of the subducting slab. We investigate source parameters of the Saravan intraslab normal earthquake using RADARSAT-2 SAR images in three ascending tracks, nine permanent GNSS sites and teleseismic data. The maximum coseismic displacement occurred at the SRVN GNSS station with 54.1 mm southeast horizontal and 42.7 mm upward vertical displacements. The coseismic ascending InSAR displacement maps illustrate a continuous and smooth NE-trending elliptical shape deformation pattern with a maximum of ∼29 cm of displacement away from the satellite. We use 25 broad-band teleseismic P-waveforms to estimate the focal mechanism of the main shock. A joint uniform inversion of InSAR, GNSS and teleseismic data reveals a NW-dipping SW-striking fault and a primarily normal-faulting earthquake with a minor right-lateral strike-slip component. The static slip distribution of the InSAR coseismic maps localizes variable slip at depths between 50 and 81 km with a maximum amplitude >3 m at 60–75.5 km depth, rupturing the oceanic crust of the subducted slab. The kinematic slip distribution exhibits a well-constrained slip pattern with a nucleation depth of 65 km. The source time function indicates that the earthquake reaches its maximum moment tensor release at ∼8 and ∼16 s. The NE-trend of the Saravan earthquake slip pattern, the orientation of the volcanic arc, and the distribution of the intraslab intermediate-depth normal earthquakes provide new insights into slab geometry in the central Makran subduction zone. We suggest that the slab bending at the hinge of subducting Arabian Plate is oblique along a NE–SW direction parallel to the volcanic arc rather than the shoreline or deformation front, and it is likely to be the reason for an oblique volcanic arc in the Makran subduction zone. These new constraints on the Makran slab geometry will help further studies in establishing realistic coupling maps for seismic hazard assessment.

Stress drops of intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes beneath Tohoku, northern Japan

We calculated stress drops for 2875 small intraslab earthquakes at intermediate depths beneath Tohoku, Japan. We applied an S-coda-wave spectral ratio method to almost 900,000 event pairs. Detailed velocity values for the oceanic crust (OC) were adopted from previous observational studies. The median stress drops in the OC are about half those in the oceanic mantle (OM). The median stress drop for earthquakes in the OC decreases from depths of 70 to 120 km and increases from 120 to 170 km. Our preferred interpretation is that the rigidity in the OC decreases and then increases with depth due to combined effects of the dehydration associated with the eclogite formation and the increasing temperature with depth. These depth variations are consistent with results of a similar study beneath Hokkaido. The median stress drops in the oceanic plate beneath Tohoku are generally smaller than those beneath Hokkaido. Previous studies imaging the seismic structure at shallow depths and b-value analyses of intraslab earthquakes indicate that the near-trench region of the oceanic plate off Tohoku is more hydrated than that off Hokkaido. Taken together, these results suggest that differences in the degree of hydration of the oceanic plate in the near-trench regions could produce the different behaviors of stress drops of intermediate-depth earthquakes observed in Tohoku and Hokkaido.Graphical

Revisiting Seismic Energy of Shallow Tremors: Amplifications Due To Site and Propagation Path Effects Near the Nankai Trough

AbstractWe investigated the effects of the propagation path and site amplification of shallow tremors along the Nankai Trough. Using far‐field S‐wave propagation from intraslab earthquake data, the amplification factors at the DONET stations were 5–40 times against an inland outcrop rock site. Thick (∼5 km) sedimentary layers with VS of 0.6–2 km/s beneath DONET stations have been confirmed by seismological studies. To investigate the effects of thick sedimentary layers, we synthesized seismograms of shallow tremors and intraslab earthquakes at seafloor stations. The ratios of the maximum amplitudes from the synthetic intraslab seismograms between models with and without thick sedimentary layers were 1–2. This means that thin lower‐velocity (<0.6 km/s) sediments just below the stations primarily control the estimated large amplifications. Conversely, at near‐source (≤20 km) distances, 1‐order amplifications of seismic energies for a shallow tremor source can occur due to thick sedimentary layers. Multiple S‐wave reflections between the seafloor and plate interface are contaminated in tremor envelopes; consequently, seismic energy and duration are overestimated. If a shallow tremor occurs within underthrust sediments, the overestimation becomes stronger because of the invalid rigidity assumptions around the source region. After 1‐order corrections of seismic energies of shallow tremors along the Nankai Trough, the scaled energies of seismic slow earthquakes were 10−10–10−9 irrespective of the region and source depth. Hence, the physical mechanisms governing seismic slow earthquakes can be the same, irrespective of the region and source depth.

Seismic hazard study for the duration of ground-motions triggered by intraslab earthquakes

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the duration of ground motions in Mexico City caused by intraslab earthquakes. The study implies establishing criteria to measure the duration of ground motions and developing predictive equations (GMPEs) for its estimation. Focus is placed on the relative significant duration, DSr\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$D_{Sr}$$\\end{document}, which is based on the accumulation of energy of ground motions. The study extends to the development of hazard curves that allow estimating the annual probability of exceedance of said parameter. The scope is limited to ground motions caused by intraslab earthquakes occurring in Mexico and that engineeringly affect its capital, Mexico City, which is in a geographical region where the effects of soil-dynamic amplification are manifested considerably. A strong-motion database that includes 1517 horizontal accelerograms, with peak ground acceleration, PGA\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$PGA$$\\end{document}, greater than or equal to 3 cm/s2, recorded during 21 earthquakes from 1994 to 2023 were used to develop the GMPEs. The quantitative description of the time, size, and spatial distribution of the seismic-activity occurrence was defined using a catalog of 46 earthquakes that occurred from 1900 to 2023. The earthquakes have moment magnitude, Mw\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$M_{w}$$\\end{document}, greater than or equal to 6. With the tools developed, amplitude- and duration-based hazard-consistent accelerograms can be simulated and used in nonlinear dynamic analyses (NDAs) of structures. This study includes an application example where three sites in Mexico City are selected to compute inelastic response spectra. Hysteretic-energy demands up to 5 times higher are found after a comparison between the inelastic-response spectra from hazard-consistent accelerograms and those provided by current Mexican regulations.

Extensional failure at the tip of a weak slab under slab pull -- the 2023 Mw 6.4 Zacualpa, Guatemala, earthquake

The 2023 Mw 6.4 Zacualpa earthquake is the deepest recorded major (Mw > 6) earthquake to have occurred in the Cocos slab beneath Central America, at a depth of ~ 255 km. Here, we refine the source parameters of both the Zacualpa earthquake, and the only other event at comparable depths (the 1997 Mw 5.5 Santa Catarina Mita earthquake), confirming both their exceptional depth within the downgoing slab, and their consistent down-dip extensional mechanism. That the Cocos slab remains capable of hosting major intraslab earthquakes, with mechanisms consistent with down-dip extension, near, or at, the tip of the contiguous slab, suggests that the slab itself is weak, such that the minimal stresses derived from supporting the negative buoyancy of the short section of slab down-dip from this earthquake are still sufficient to lead to brittle failure of the slab.

Intermediate-depth seismicity and intraslab stress changes due to outer-rise faulting

Intermediate-depth seismicity is common in subducting slabs and the seismicity rate shows some statistically significant yet enigmatic global positive correlation with the maximal throw of outer-rise normal faults. Here, we have simulated the formation and subduction of outer-rise faults, using 2D thermomechanical numerical models of intra-oceanic subduction with coupled brittle-ductile damage of bending plates. We observed that outer-rise faults are formed episodically during slab segmentation and their maximal throw grows with time. When been subducted to intermediate depth, these faults are locally reactivated either by i) slab unbending/bending, simultaneous to the formation of new outer-rise faults or ii) episodic interplate coupling related to the rugged morphology of the faulted downgoing plate. Faults reactivation is concurrent with a local, transient deviatoric stress increase in intraslab domains among these structures. We suggest that slab domains affected by stress increase could be the appropriate location where potential brittle deformation can occur, generating intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes, that are predominantly localized in heterogeneous regions of dense faulting formed within slab-segments boundaries. The temporal coincidence of stress growth at intermediate depths and throw-growth of, newly-formed, outer-rise faults at the surface may possibly explain the observed global positive correlation of intermediate-depth seismicity rate with maximal fault throw.

Stress change in southwest Japan due to the 1944–1946 Nankai megathrust rupture sequence based on a 3-D heterogeneous rheological model

The Nankai trough has repeatedly experienced large megathrust earthquakes at intervals of 100–200 years. The inland region of southwest (SW) Japan has a seismically active period from 50 years before to 10 years after megathrust earthquakes. To assess the activities of inland earthquakes after megathrust earthquakes, we need to quantitatively evaluate the postseismic stress accumulation on the inland source faults considering plausible viscoelastic relaxation. Recent studies have shown the importance of low-viscosity layers along the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB layer) in postseismic deformation. In the present study, we focus on the most recent ruptures, the 1944 M7.9 Tonankai and the 1946 M8.0 Nankai earthquakes, estimating the 4-year stress change on the source faults in SW Japan in a forward modeling approach. The 1944–1946 megathrust rupture sequence was followed by severe ~ M7 inland earthquakes, such as the 1945 M6.8 Mikawa and 1948 M7.1 Fukui earthquakes. For stress calculation, we used a highly detailed finite element model incorporating the actual topography and the plausible viscoelastic underground structure from past studies. The calculated inland stress field shows the dominance of the coseismic change during the 1944 and 1946 earthquakes and little contribution from viscoelastic relaxation. In contrast, viscoelastic relaxation has a significant effect on stress in the slab, indicating the importance of quantifying the viscosity of the LAB layer. Based on the calculated stress, we evaluated the change in the Coulomb failure stress (ΔCFS) on each source fault. The ΔCFS is generally positive on the strike-slip faults east of 135°E due to the 1944 rupture. In contrast, the ΔCFS on the faults west of 135°E, including the Median Tectonic Line segments, became positive due to the 1946 rupture. The occurrence of the damaging earthquakes in 1945 and 1948 can be explained by the calculated ΔCFS. The ΔCFS on the recent earthquake faults of the recent damaging earthquakes such as the 2016 M7.2 Kumamoto earthquake is generally negative, suggesting the delay in stress accumulation. The ΔCFS on the source faults of the intra-slab earthquakes differ significantly as large as tens of kilopascals depending on the viscosity of the LAB layer.Graphical

Vertical Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Interplate and Intermediate-Depth Intraslab Earthquakes at Mexico City’s Hill Zone

ABSTRACT We present ground motion prediction models for spectral pseudo acceleration (5% damping), peak ground velocity, and peak ground acceleration values from interplate and intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes at the so-called hill zone of Mexico City for the vertical component and the vertical-to-horizontal ratio case. There are no previous models for the vertical component from these events in Mexico City. The prediction equations were developed as a function of magnitude and also as a function of distance to the fault surface of earthquakes by using 30 and 26 seismic recordings from interplate (1965–2022) and intermediate-depth intraslab (1964–2017) earthquakes at the hill zone of the city by using Bayesian regression analyses. The attenuation models are developed for interplate events for distances ranging from 280 km to over 500 km and Mw from 6 to 8.1, and for intraslab events for distances to the fault surface ranging from 100 km up to about 600 km, focal depths from 40 km to over 120 km and Mw from 5 to 8.2. Nevertheless, since at large distances ground motions are generally weak, we recommend the applicability of the proposed models to be restricted to up to 400 km. The models are adequate to estimating the seismic hazard at the hill zone of Mexico City, as proved by contrasting analytical versus empirical seismic exceedance rates for the vertical component.

Subduction intraslab-interface fault interactions in the 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California, earthquake sequence.

The Mendocino triple junction-the intersection of the Pacific, North American, and Gorda plates-activates a collection of disparate faults that reconcile Cascadia subduction with San Andreas transform motion. The 20 December 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California, earthquake occurred within this complex zone as strike-slip faulting within the subducting Gorda slab. Here, we analyze the seismic and geodetic signatures of the mainshock and aftershock sequence to illuminate its role within complex tectonic surroundings. We find aftershocks on varied fault structures within the uppermost Gorda slab, yet seismicity on the subduction interface itself was notably absent. Nevertheless, we identify small but coherent postseismic deformation that is well modeled by aseismic slip on this interface, likely triggered by stresses generated at the updip limit of coseismic rupture. This sequence demonstrates the potential for interactions between intra-slab earthquakes and slip on the subduction megathrust, highlighting the need to consider this and other subduction zones as coupled systems of interacting faults.

Mean period prediction models for Mexican interplate and intermediate-depth intraslab earthquake ground motions

The aim of this paper is to predict the mean period, Tm, as a measure of the frequency content of interplate and intermediate-depth intraslab earthquake ground motions recorded at rock sites due to subduction earthquakes in Mexico. For this purpose, both Ground Motion Prediction Models (GMPMs), which use a parametric regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression, a type of machine learning algorithm used for regression analysis, are employed in this investigation. Therefore, two databases which include 484 and 300 earthquake ground motions recorded during interplate and intraslab historical Mexican earthquakes were assembled in this study. It is shown that Tm estimates depend on the type of earthquake (i.e., interplate or intraslab). While the SVM regression yields the lowest total standard deviation in predicting Tm, the GMPM still yields an acceptable total standard deviation similar to that reported in other studies. A comparison of the GMPM for intraslab earthquakes in Mexico with another GMPMs for predicting Tm recently introduced in the literature showed differences, which suggests that GMPMs for predicting Tm should be developed for specific regions.

Relation between rheological properties and the stress state in subducting slabs

The distribution of different stress states in the subducting slab indicated by centroid moment tensor solutions for intra-slab earthquakes can help constrain the rheological properties of the slabs. A comparison of slabs in the western and eastern Pacific realms shows contrasting patterns in the stress states down to depths of ~ 350 km. The majority of slabs in the western Pacific show a pair of down-dip compression (DC) and down-dip tension (DT) domains in the upper and lower parts of the slab reflecting the effects of the slab unbending during progressive subduction. In contrast, slabs in the eastern Pacific show predominantly in-plane DT stress irrespective of slab geometry. Two-dimensional numerical simulations assuming constant slab thickness and viscosity indicate that the development of slabs with in-plane DT stress at depths of 100–300 km requires the slabs to be thin and have a low viscosity (1023 Pa s). Weak slabs bend easily and tend to fold when they encounter increased resistance to downward movement at the 660-km boundary. The associated DC stresses are not transmitted up the slab so negative buoyancy of the slab and DT stress dominates at intermediate depths for this type of slab. Most experimentally derived rheological parameters predict a high viscosity (> 1024 Pa s) for such slabs. However, two-dimensional numerical simulations using temperature- and pressure-dependent viscosity show that a relatively low activation energy (~ 110 kJ/mol) for diffusion creep is a possible explanation for the observed distribution of stresses in the slabs. Such low activation energies are compatible with recent experimental work on diffusion creep of polyphase mantle materials in which a low effective activation energy for creep results from a slow grain growth due to pinning effect of the secondary phase. The simulations provide a mechanical explanation for the observed dominantly DT stress state at 100–300 km depths for young slabs and paired DT and DC stress states at the same depth range for old slabs.Graphical

Horizontal and Vertical Ground-Motion Duration Prediction Models from Interplate and Intermediate-Depth Intraslab Earthquakes in Mexico City

ABSTRACT In this study, we present predictive models for significant ground-motion duration from interplate and intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes at Mexico City for the horizontal components, the vertical component, and the vertical-to-horizontal ratio case. The considered sites are located over several zones in Mexico City, from rock to soft-soil sites. For the ground-motion duration models, the significant durations for ranges between 5% and 75%, 5% and 95%, and 2.5% and 97.5% of Arias intensity are considered for the analyses. The equations were developed as functions of magnitude, distance of the earthquake, and site period using 16 and 23 event recordings from interplate and intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes at the hill, transition, and lakebed zones of the city using mixed-effect regression analyses. For the intraslab events, in particular, the new database includes recordings from two significant normal-faulting events that occurred in 2017. The models lead to differences with respect to the previous models. Therefore, predictive models for both considered focal mechanisms are proposed. The model is valid for interplate events at distances from 280 to 500 km and magnitude Mw from 6 to 8.1, for intraslab events at distances of 100 km up to about 650 km, magnitude Mw from 5 to 8.2, and focal depths from 40 km to over 120 km.

Complex rupture evolution of the 2007 Martinique earthquake: a non-double-couple event in the Caribbean Sea

SUMMARY A large non-double-couple component of a tectonic earthquake indicates that its rupture likely was complex and likely involved multiple faults. Detailed source models of such earthquakes can add to our understanding of earthquake source complexity. The 2007 Martinique earthquake in the Caribbean Sea is one of the largest recent earthquakes with a known large non-double-couple component. It was an intermediate depth intraslab earthquake within the South American plate where it is subducting beneath the Caribbean plate. We applied potency density tensor inversion (PDTI) to teleseismic P waves generated by the 2007 Martinique earthquake to model its source processes and focal mechanism distribution. We identified two focal mechanisms: a strike-slip mechanism with a north–south tension axis (T-axis), and a downdip extension (DDE) mechanism with an east–west T-axis. Rupture by the DDE mechanism was predominant in the northern part of the source region and strike-slip rupture in the southern part. These two focal mechanisms had approximately parallel pressure axes (P-axes) and approximately orthogonal T-axes. The seismic moments released by both types of rupture were almost equal. These results indicate that the 2007 Martinique earthquake had a large non-double-couple component. We identified five subevents with two predominant directions of rupture propagation: two strike-slip subevents propagated to the southeast and three DDE subevents propagated to the east. Although the directions of propagation were consistent for each focal mechanism, each subevent appears to have occurred in isolation. For example, the rupture of one DDE subevent propagated from the edge of the source region back towards the hypocentre. Complex ruptures that include multiple subevents may be influenced by high pore fluid pressure associated with slab dehydration. Our results show that PDTI can produce stable estimates of complex seismic source processes and provide useful information about the sources of complex intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes for which fault geometry assumptions are difficult.

Broadband source model of the 2021 MW 7.1 Fukushima‐ken Oki earthquake in Japan based on seafloor and onshore strong‐motion records

AbstractThe 2021 MW 7.1 Fukushima‐ken Oki earthquake was the largest down‐dip compressional intraslab earthquake since August 2016, which is when S‐net records from the seafloor started to be provided. In this study, the empirical Green's function method was used with strong‐motion records from S‐net on the seafloor and KiK‐net onshore to estimate the broadband (0.2–10 Hz) source model of this earthquake. Three strong‐motion generation areas (SMGAs) with very high stress drops were estimated around the edge of the fault. One SMGA with a stress drop of 125 MPa was located in the oceanic crust in the shallow part of the Pacific Plate. The other two SMGAs with stress drops of 313 and 188 MPa were located in the deep part where previous source models without S‐net estimated a small slip. The two deep SMGAs increased the contribution of S‐net to more than that of KiK‐net. The short‐period spectral level was as high as that of the 2011 MW 7.1 Miyagi‐ken Oki earthquake, which was also a down‐dip compressional intraslab earthquake. The estimated broadband source model simulated the horizontal and vertical motions well at stations within 200 km of the hypocenter, except for surface waves at a few S‐net stations.

Ensemble Region-Specific GMMs for Subduction Earthquakes

Abstract This study develops data-driven global and region-specific ground-motion models (GMMs) for subduction earthquakes using a weighted average ensemble model to combine four different nonparametric supervised machine-learning (ML) algorithms, including an artificial neural network, a kernel ridge regressor, a random forest regressor, and a support vector regressor. To achieve this goal, we train individual models using a subset of the Next Generation Attenuation-Subduction (NGA-Sub) data set, including 9559 recordings out of 153 interface and intraslab earthquakes recorded at 3202 different stations. A grid search is used to find each model’s best hyperparameters. Then, we use an equally weighted average ensemble approach to combine these four models. Ensemble modeling is a technique that combines the strengths of multiple ML algorithms to mitigate their weaknesses. The ensemble model considers moment magnitude (M), rupture distance (Rrup), time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m (VS30), and depth to the top of the rupture plane (Ztor), as well as tectonic and region as input parameters, and predicts various median orientation-independent horizontal component ground-motion intensity measures such as peak ground displacement, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and 5%-damped pseudospectral acceleration values at spectral periods of 0.01–10 s in log scale. Although no functional form is defined, the response spectra and the distance and magnitude scaling trends of the weighted average ensemble model are consistent and comparable with the NGA-Sub GMMs, with slightly lower standard deviations. A mixed effects regression analysis is used to partition the total aleatory variability into between-event, between-station, and event-site-corrected components. The derived global GMMs are applicable to interface earthquakes with M 4.9–9.12, 14≤Rrup≤1000 km, and Ztor≤47 km for sites having VS30values between 95 and 2230 m/s. For intraslab events, the derived global GMMs are applicable to M 4.0–8.0, 28≤Rrup≤1000 km, and 30≤Ztor≤200 km for sites having VS30 values between 95 and 2100 m/s.

Anisotropic structure in the mantle wedge beneath southeastern Mexico from shear-wave splitting tomography

Cocos intraslab earthquakes were used to make a 3-D tomographic inversion to define a crystallographic orientation model for the mantle wedge beneath southeastern Mexico. This model provided insights regarding the pattern of the mantle wedge flow and its relationship to the geometry of the subducting slab. The mantle wedge was parametrized as a 3-D block model of crystallographic orientations assuming the elastic constants of olivine and orthopyroxene with orthorhombic symmetry (hexagonal symmetry was also tested). A linearized, damped, and iterative least-squares approach was used to account for the nonlinear behavior of the shear-wave splitting, numerically recalculating partial derivatives after each iteration. The best-fitting model is consistent with two main flow regimes: (1) 2-D corner flow in a mantle wedge core made up of A-type olivine fabric northwest of the Tehuantepec Ridge extension, and (2) 3-D trench-parallel mantle flow in a mantle wedge core made up of A-, C-, or E-type olivine fabric southeast of this geological feature. Around the Tehuantepec Ridge extension, a partially serpentinized mantle wedge tip is inferred since olivine a-axis orientations are trench-parallel regardless of whether a 2-D corner flow or a 3-D trench-parallel flow prevails. Right above the Tehuantepec Ridge extension (beyond the 100 km isodepth contour of the subducting slab), a change of well-resolved olivine a-axis orientations from trench-normal to trench-parallel while going from northwest to southeast is observed. It signals an abrupt change in the mantle flow pattern possibly through a vertical tear in the Cocos slab. 3-D toroidal flow could be driving subslab mantle material into the mantle wedge around the deepest slab segment. Lastly, approximately trench-normal olivine a-axis orientations are observed in the mantle wedge tip near the Mexico and Guatemala border region, and they could be explained by assuming the presence of B-type olivine fabric.

A Seismogenic Slab Source Model for Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract Intraslab seismicity within the Hikurangi and Puysegur subduction zones constitutes >50% of recorded (Mw≥4.0 events) earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand. Here, we develop a source model for intraslab seismicity using recently augmented datasets including models of subduction interface geometries, an earthquake catalog, and a regional moment tensor catalog. For the areal zones of uniform seismicity, we consider the whole of each slab, as well as demarcations between shallower (depth ≤40 km) and deeper regions. Thereafter, we evaluate the magnitude–frequency distributions in each zone. To compute smoothed seismicity distributions, we apply a novel quasi-3D approach that involve: (1) delineation of midslab surfaces (defined by regions of maximum earthquake density), (2) orthogonal projections of hypocenters onto the midslab profiles, (3) uniform gridding of 0.1° down-dip on the midslab, and (4) application of smoothing kernel on the projected hypocenters. We also develop a model to characterize the focal mechanisms of the intraslab earthquakes using the regional moment tensor catalog. This model has median strike angles subparallel to subduction trenches and median dip angles ≥60° in both the subduction zones. The distribution of rake angles suggests that the Hikurangi slab has an extensional regime in the shallower parts but a compressional regime in the deeper parts, indicative of slab flexure. In contrast, the Puysegur slab predominantly exhibits a compressional regime.