Intraseasonal Time Scales Research Articles

Variability of volume transport in the Taiwan Strait and its response to tropical MJO convection: A numerical approach

Taiwan Strait (TWS) plays a crucial role in material exchange and nutrient budget between the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In this study, we investigate the variability of volume transport in the TWS and its response to tropical Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) convection based on the simulated results from a three-dimensional operational numerical model. Validated by the observational data, the model generally reproduced the physical field well. The volume transport in the TWS has strong seasonal cycles as well as higher-frequency variations. Intra-seasonal fluctuations dominate the along-strait currents variability, while secondary and the last signal are seasonal one and inter-annual variability, respectively. Overall, the along-strait wind stress plays a more important role in controlling the variability of volume transport in the TWS than the pressure gradient induced by north-to-south sea level slope. At intra-seasonal time scales, the volume transport in the TWS varies with the movement of the tropical MJO convection from Indian Ocean eastward to the western Pacific Ocean. These oceanic anomalies are related to atmospheric anomalies, with a distinct physical linkage from the tropical atmosphere to the mid-latitude ocean. The tropical MJO deep convection can modify the upper tropospheric heights and generate a wave train pattern that propagates to mid-latitudes. In addition, these anomalous upper tropospheric heights modulate the surface pressure, resulting in a cyclonic anomaly. The upper tropospheric heights anomaly and its corresponding mean sea level pressure anomaly move eastward in the MJO cycle following the migrating MJO heat source in the tropics from phase 2 to 5. Consequently, surface winds change as the cyclonic anomaly moves from central China to the east of Japan, resulting in a northeast volume transport anomaly during MJO phase 2 and 3 and a southwest volume transport anomaly during MJO phase 4 and 5.

Possible link between temperatures in the seashore and open ocean waters of Peru identified by using new seashore water data

The linkage between environmental conditions in the coastal ocean and the open sea varies greatly by region. It is important to clarify, on an area-by-area basis, what coastal monitoring information reveals about the open ocean and how much predictive information for the open ocean may be applicable to the coastal ocean. The Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru is a monitoring area for the El Niño/La Niña, an oceanic–atmospheric phenomenon of global importance. However, there are not many reliable data along the Peruvian coast. We deployed a network of 6 logger sites along the Peruvian coast during 2017–2020 and compiled a useful, high-resolution dataset of water temperatures. We examined a possible link between temperatures in the coastal waters of Peru and the open sea by comparing the new dataset with historical temperatures in the open ocean. We confirmed that monthly mean anomalies of seashore water temperatures in coastal Peru were strongly correlated with those of open ocean sea surface temperatures. With one exception, the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.80 to 0.92 and were significant at p < 0.01. This result suggested that data obtained from monitoring along the Pacific coast of Peru could be used to indicate the state of the open ocean and that El Niño forecasts for the open ocean could be applied to coastal forecasting as well. Spectral analysis revealed that the periods of changes of seashore water temperature peaked at 80 and 120 days in the region north of 5° S. This result suggested that coastal monitoring might capture intraseasonal dynamics of equatorial Kelvin waves. The absence of clear peaks south of 5° S implied that equatorial wave energy did not penetrate far into off-equatorial regions along the Peruvian coast on intraseasonal timescales.

The MJO-driven Indo-Pacific barotropic see-saw

Recent discovery of a see-saw in intraseasonal barotropic sea level driven by boreal winter Madden-Julian Oscillation winds in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin has renewed interest in the barotropic dynamics in the tropics, which was otherwise known to be prominently a region of baroclinic dynamics at intraseasonal timescales. In this study, using a reference model simulation and several sensitivity experiments, we provide comprehensive details of the dynamics associated with this see-saw. It is found that the narrow Indonesian straits are instrumental in relaying barotropic excitations from one basin to the other. The intraseasonal barotropic circulation associated with this see-saw dynamics appears well organized at basin scale, both in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific Ocean. During the positive phase of the see-saw, the Madden-Julian Oscillation winds over the Maritime Continent drive a basin-wide anti-clockwise circulation of ∼2 Sv around the Australian Continent with the eastern arm of this circulation located along the west African coast. Concurrently, it also drives a clockwise circulation in the southern Pacific Ocean. This circulation pattern reverses during the negative phase of the see-saw. In the Indonesian Throughflow region, the relatively narrow Ombai Strait and Lombok Strait facilitate this circulation in comparison to the wider Timor Passage. We discuss and point out the significant differences in this flow pattern with the mean flow across the Indonesian seas. We also address how some regions in the northern Pacific Ocean are decoupled from this large-scale dynamics. We show that it takes about a week for both the basins to adjust and to establish the see-saw, once the Madden-Julian Oscillation winds reach the Maritime Continent.

Response of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Tropical Atmosphere to Changes in Oceanic Mixed Layer Depth over the Indian Ocean

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a component of tropical variability that influences high-impact events such as hurricane activity and Asian monsoons on intraseasonal (2–8 weeks) time scales. However, the atmosphere–ocean dynamics responsible for the MJO are highly debated. To gain insight into MJO–Indian Ocean dynamics, we conduct climate model experiments where the ocean is replaced by a motionless slab whose thickness, called the mixed layer depth (MLD), varies in space but not in time. Changes in the MLD and ocean heat convergence over the Indian Ocean have no discernible impact on MJO propagation, predictability, or variability within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2.1. This suggests that ocean dynamics may not be critical to the MJO over the Indian Ocean in this dynamical model (CAM5 coupled to motionless slab). To diagnose changes in intraseasonal variability beyond the MJO, a discriminant analysis technique is used to optimize differences in variability between experiments. This analysis reveals that differences caused by changing Indian Ocean MLD were restricted mostly to local surface fluxes and could be explained by simple energy balance physics. Despite modeling adjustments intended to preserve the climate, the control slab has a warmer climate than the fully coupled model. The resulting changes in the mean climate are consistent with changes theoretically expected from global warming, particularly the “wet-gets-wetter” mechanism. Significance Statement The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a tropical eastward-moving pulse of convection that can influence a wide variety of global phenomena. Currently, models do not capture many key aspects of the MJO such as speed and spatial structure. The uppermost ocean layer that communicates with the atmosphere is widely believed to play a large role in the evolution of the MJO. To test the importance of ocean dynamics on simulated MJO, a slab-model configuration is used to allow the atmosphere and ocean to communicate through surface fluxes of heat and moisture while suppressing interactive ocean currents. Changes to the upper ocean did not impact the MJO in our model setup.

Improving the subseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate model

AbstractMany global climate models, including the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), have a biased representation of subseasonal modes of variability of the Indian summer monsoon. For instance, they simulate a weaker summer mean monsoon low‐pressure systems (LPS) climatology, faster than observed northward propagation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), and a systematic dry bias over Indian landmass. The Bay of Bengal (BoB), with its shallow mixed layers and unique thermal stratification, significantly modulates the convective activity in this region at subseasonal‐to‐seasonal timescales through modulation of sea surface temperature. The highly stratified upper ocean in the BoB is due to the enormous freshwater it receives from rains and rivers. A river routing model is coupled to the CFSv2 to account for the riverine freshwater and the improvements in modelling the upper‐ocean structure are analysed. Model simulations indicate that inclusion of temporally varying riverine freshwater improves the upper‐ocean state in the BoB and the observed mixed‐layer temperature gradients in the Bay are simulated reasonably after incorporating the time varying river runoff. This resulted in increased LPS lifetime and track density, and enhanced rainfall over central India. Better representation of the upper‐ocean stratification in the model leads to larger post‐convection shoaling of mixed layers at intraseasonal timescales, thereby forming thick barrier layers. Enhanced air–sea interactions restricted to the shallow mixed layer are associated with stronger vorticity, specific humidity and low‐level convergence to the north of the intraseasonal convection band. This enhanced low‐level moisture convergence north of the convection centre results in realistic northward propagation of MISO and aids LPS activity. It is demonstrated that better simulation of the upper‐ocean structure in coupled climate models can improve the representation of subseasonal modes of monsoon variability. These results bear important implications for operational forecasting.

Impact of dust aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall on intra-seasonal time-scale

The Indian subcontinent is a major hotspot of aerosol loading and several studies have demonstrated the importance of interaction between Asian dust aerosols and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). However, a few studies have suggested a declining trend in the pre-monsoon dust loading over the Indian region. The present study investigates how the decrease in dust emissions influences the intensity of the monsoon rainfall over the Indian region using a fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). We have conducted two sets of simulation experiments for the June-July-August-September (JJAS) season of 2017: (1) a control experiment with the default dust aerosol emissions, and (2) a sensitivity experiment by reducing dust emissions by 60%. Our analyses show that the reduction in dust emissions significantly alters the spatial distribution of seasonal mean monsoon rainfall with enhanced rainfall over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and eastern coastal regions, and decreased rainfall over the lower Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), and parts of Central India (CI). It is found that the low aerosol loading conditions alter the large-scale circulation patterns along the tropical/sub-tropical region centred between 15°N and 35°N and 40°E −130°E, and through dynamical feedback, strengthens the convective rainfall over the BoB region. As a result, the 10–20 days sub-seasonal mode of the ISMR strengthens, facilitating enhanced westward propagation of rain-bearing systems formed over northern BoB which provides substantial rainfall over vast regions of the Indian subcontinent.

Impact of Synoptic Wind Intensification and Relaxation on the Dynamics and Heat Budget of the South Senegalese Upwelling Sector

Abstract In addition to their well-known seasonal cycle, eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) undergo modulation on shorter synoptic to intraseasonal time scales. Energetic intensifications and relaxations of upwelling-favorable winds with 5–10-day typical time scales can impact the EBUS dynamics and biogeochemical functioning. In this work the dynamical effects of wind-forced synoptic fluctuations on the South Senegalese Upwelling Sector (SSUS) are characterized. The region geomorphology is unique with its wide continental shelf and a major coastline discontinuity at its northern edge. The ocean response to synoptic events is explored using a modeling framework that involves applying idealized synoptic wind intensification or relaxation to a five-member climatological SSUS ensemble run. Model evaluation against sparse midshelf in situ observations indicates qualitative agreement in terms of synoptic variability of temperature, stratification, and ocean currents, despite a moderate but systematic bias in current intensity. Modeled synoptic wind and heat flux fluctuations produce clear modulations of all dynamical variables with robust SSUS-scale and mesoscale spatial patterns. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is performed over the continental shelf to uncover the dominant processes involved in SSUS synoptic variability. Modulations of horizontal advection and atmospheric forcing are the leading-order drivers of heat changes during either wind intensification or relaxation while vertical dynamics is of primary importance only in a very localized area. Also, modest asymmetries in the oceanic responses to upwelling intensification and relaxation are only identified for meridional velocities. This brings partial support to the hypothesis that synoptic variability has a modest net effect on the climatological state and functioning of upwelling systems dynamics.

The Stratosphere–Troposphere Oscillation as the Dominant Intraseasonal Coupling Mode between the Stratosphere and Troposphere

Abstract Changes in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can remarkably impact tropospheric circulation. Based on the diagnosis of reanalysis data, this study finds that the location shift rather than the strength change dominates the intraseasonal variability of SPV. Further analysis suggests that it couples well with the tropospheric circulation, forming an intraseasonal stratosphere–troposphere oscillation (STO). The STO shows periodic westward propagation throughout its life cycle and has a deep structure extending from the troposphere to the stratosphere. It reflects the movement of the SPV toward North America, then the North Pacific, Eurasia, and the North Atlantic, and causes significant changes in surface air temperature over North America and East Asia. The mechanism of the STO involves Rossby wave propagation between the troposphere and stratosphere and cross-scale interactions in the troposphere. Upward Rossby wave propagation from the troposphere over East Asia maintains the STO’s stratospheric component, and the reflection of these waves back to the troposphere contributes substantially to the STO’s tropospheric center over North America. Meanwhile, the linear and nonlinear processes explain the STO’s westward propagation in the troposphere, which facilities vertical wave propagation changes. The STO unifies the SPV shifts, the retrograding tropospheric disturbances, and the wave coupling processes into one framework and provides a holistic view for a better understanding of the intraseasonal stratosphere–troposphere coupling. Given its oscillating nature, time scale, and widespread surface response, the STO may be a potential source of predictability for the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Significance Statement Stratospheric circulation plays a vital role in influencing tropospheric weather and climate, but its variability and coupling with the troposphere have not been fully understood for the intraseasonal time scale. This study finds that the Northern Annular Mode is the leading mode of variability in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere stratosphere on time scales longer than 60 days, which reflects the changes in the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex. In contrast, the shift of the stratospheric polar vortex excels as the leading mode on time scales shorter than 60 days and is identified as a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation (STO) phenomenon. In the stratosphere, the STO is characterized by the shift of the polar vortex and rotates clockwise with time. In the troposphere, the STO is manifested as a large-scale westward-propagating circulation in the midlatitudes, with significant near-surface temperature anomalies across the continents. The formation of the STO is further attributed to the vertical and horizontal Rossby wave propagation. As STO is a periodic oscillation, it may serve as a potential predictability source for subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction.

Bay of Bengal upper-ocean stratification and the sub-seasonal variability in convection: Role of rivers in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

The Bay of Bengal (BoB) receives a large amount of freshwater from rains and rivers, resulting in large upper-ocean stratification due to the freshening effect. This salinity stratification has been theorized to impact sea-surface temperature (SST) and convection on intra-seasonal time scales by affecting the ocean mixed layer and the barrier layer. This article aims to quantify the impact of salinity stratification on the sub-seasonal variability in SST and convection by using in-situ ocean observations and coupled model experiments. It is shown that monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations (MISOs) exhibit varied levels of intra-seasonal variability in SST and rainfall based on the underlying ocean conditions. The largest intra-seasonal variability in SST does not cause the largest convection variability in the north-western BoB. Instead, moderate variability in SST and rainfall associated with MISOs co-occur with deep mixed layer and thick barrier layer conditions. Realistic representation of river freshwater fluxes in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model leads to improved intra-seasonal SST and rainfall variability. Thick barrier layers in the north-western Bay attenuates the entrainment cooling of the mixed layer, and the high mixed layer heat content provides conducive oceanic conditions for the genesis of monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS), thereby affecting rainfall over India. This study has important implications for operation forecasting using coupled models.

A Self-Organizing Maps Analysis of Wintertime North Pacific Jet Stream Variability

Abstract Previous research regarding the intraseasonal variability of the wintertime Pacific jet has employed empirical orthogonal function (EOF)/principal component (PC) analysis to characterize two leading modes of variability: a zonal extension or retraction and a ∼20° meridional shift of the jet exit region. These leading modes are intimately tied to the large-scale structure, sensible weather phenomena, and forecast skill in and around the vast North Pacific basin. However, variability within the wintertime Pacific jet and the relative importance of tropical and extratropical processes in driving such variability, is poorly understood. Here, a self-organizing maps (SOM) analysis is applied to 73 Northern Hemisphere cold seasons of 250-hPa zonal winds from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data to identify 12 characteristic physical jet states, some of which resemble the leading EOF Pacific jet patterns and combinations of them. Examination of teleconnection patterns such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) provide insight into the varying nature of the 12 SOM nodes at inter- and intraseasonal time scales. These relationships suggest that the hitherto more common EOF/PC analysis of jet variability obscures important subtleties of jet structure, revealed by the SOM analysis, which bear on the underlying physical processes associated with Pacific jet variability as well as the nature of its downstream impacts.

Impacts of Sea Surface Temperature Gradient on Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract The northward-propagating monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) is the most pronounced variability over the tropical Indian Ocean during the Indian summer monsoon (June–September). MISO is accompanied by significant air–sea interactions; however, the mechanism of the oceanic feedback to MISO is still a great scientific challenge. In this study, the role of the intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in MISO is diagnosed using reanalysis products and model sensitivity experiments. It is found that the positive meridional gradient of intraseasonal SST induces positive wind convergence in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and leads convection by about 1–2 days. This accounts for approximately half of the total wind convergence in the PBL to the north of convection during MISO. The warm SST anomalies before convection accelerate the intraseasonal northerly wind in the PBL due to the enhanced downward transport of momentum from aloft. By contrast, the cold SST anomalies behind deep convection weaken the downward vertical momentum transport, thereby inducing a deceleration in the intraseasonal northerly. Consequently, changes in the speed of intraseasonal northerly along the meridional direction strengthen the PBL wind convergence ahead of deep convection. It finally results in the intensification of intraseasonal rainfall associated with MISO over the summer monsoon region. In addition, a strong (weak) SST meridional gradient at an intraseasonal time scale amplifies (lessens) the MISO intensity in the model simulation. Thus, this study highlights the role of SST meridional gradient in the feedback to MISO, which differs from the weak contribution of the warm SST itself to the wind convergence mentioned in previous studies. Collectively, these findings indicate that consideration of oceanic feedback is necessary to improve the understanding and simulation of MISO.

European heatwaves: Link to large‐scale circulation patterns and intraseasonal drivers

AbstractThis study examines the European heatwaves' predictability at subseasonal timescales. Land surface feedbacks and tropical convection, due to their variability at intraseasonal timescales, are taken into consideration and their potential role in extending the predictability beyond the medium range (10 days) is explored. A classification of European heatwaves into five heatwave types is used to discriminate the effects of surface feedbacks and of tropical variability among the different heatwave types. The classification is computed in terms of circulation patterns. By inferring the near‐surface temperature through atmospheric circulation, we aim to identify the predictable component of the heatwave events. All five heatwave circulation patterns are characterized by persistent anticyclonic anomalies located over the region with maximum temperatures. We show that soil moisture deficit is not a required precondition for the occurrence of heatwaves over most of Europe. However, heatwave events over southern Europe exhibit some sensitivity to dry conditions. We use a simplified index to describe the dominant mode of tropical convection at intraseasonal timescales. The index, based on precipitation anomalies, represents the evolution of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO). We find that episodes with strong BSISO amplitudes characterized by enhanced convection over India, Bay of Bengal and China sea favour the occurrence of heatwave events over Russia. The results highlight the role of tropical intraseasonal variability in enhancing the predictability of some extreme temperature events over Europe.

Mechanisms controlling persistent South Atlantic Convergence Zone events on intraseasonal timescales

Mechanisms controlling persistent South Atlantic Convergence Zone events on intraseasonal timescales

Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of dry extreme rainfall events over Northeast Thailand

The interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) strongly modulate sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall variability, leading to dry extreme rainfall events (DEREs) over Northeast (NE) Thailand. In this study, the ability of climate models to simulate the ENSO-BSISO-induced DEREs and associated synoptic features are evaluated using self-organizing maps. Observed DEREs occur most frequently during ENSO Neutral and La Niña conditions, when enhanced convection is located over central India and the Bay of Bengal. The intensity of observed DEREs are strengthened during El Niño when enhanced convection is observed over the western Pacific region. The climate models exhibit a diverse frequency of DEREs during ENSO phases, with some models showing better skill than others. On intraseasonal time scales, observed DEREs are favored when enhanced BSISO convection in phases 3–5 is located over the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific region. Five models out of the 19 examined capture the observed pattern during BSISO phases 4 and 5, while only three models capture the BSISO phase 3 behavior. Composite maps of observed DEREs during the combined BSISO and ENSO conditions indicate that BSISO convection increases (decreases) DERE frequency during El Niño and Neutral (La Niña) phase(s). Climate models can simulate the occurrence of dry events associated with the combined BSISO and ENSO phases, but they do so in different BSISO phases.

Intraseasonal oscillations of the Silk Road pattern lead to predictability in East Asian precipitation patterns and the Mei Yu front

The Silk Road pattern (SRP) is analysed on intraseasonal timescales over summer using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the meridional wind at 200 hPa. The first two principal components explain almost equal amounts of variance, hence both are required to represent the intraseasonal SRP. The associated spatial loadings are 90° out of phase with each other, providing evidence that propagating oscillations are a natural mode of variability of the intraseasonal SRP. This is supported by Hovmöller diagrams of the meridional wind at 200 hPa and by phase diagrams of the first two EOFs, which both show a predominantly eastward-propagating oscillation. The oscillations are identified as plausibly being Rossby waves by means of waveguide theory. The subtropical westerly jet and East Asian rainfall patterns are found to be dependent on the phase of the oscillation: wet anomalies occur to the east of troughs in the jet, which are also regions where local jet entrances cause upper-level divergence via an ageostrophic circulation. Dry anomalies occur to the west of troughs, which are regions of upper-level convergence. The time-delayed location of the summer Mei Yu front relative to its climatology is dependent on the phase of the oscillation: when there is an upper-level trough located over the Korean Peninsula, the Mei Yu front is likely to be located further north than normal 3–8 days later, before returning to its climatological position. This suggests that the phase of the intraseasonal SRP acts as a potential source of predictability of the location of the Mei Yu front, which might allow for better prediction of the associated rains.

The key atmospheric drivers linking regional Arctic amplification with East Asian cold extremes

Across the winters of 1999–2011, both the frequency of extreme cold events in East Asia and the Arctic Amplification showed an upward trend. Here we constructed regional AA index in the winters of 1979–2019, and examine the atmospheric driver that linked with strong AA scenarios and cold extreme in EA. Results show that the local atmospheric blocking are key drivers for regional AA occurrence on the intraseasonal timescale. Ural-Siberia blocking, which is tightly linked to the warming over Barents-Kara Seas (BK), is the primary atmospheric mode when regional AA corresponds with extreme East Asian cold days. However, when there is no warming over BK during the associated cold days in EA, the warming over western hemisphere become prominent, accompanied by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−) and blocking dipole system located at mid-Siberian and East Asian continent. Under this circulation configuration, not only does EA exhibits extremely cooling, but also northeastern North America experiences significant cold anomalies. Furthermore, precursor signals at 2–10 days are found between NAO− and each regional AA event when the days of BK warming are excluded. Our results highlight the importance of atmospheric circulation on linking the warming of different Arctic sectors and cold extremes in the mid-latitude continent, and point out the independent role of NAO− and BKS warming on regional AA.

Modelled realistic daily variation in low winter sea-ice concentration over the Barents Sea amplifies Asian cold events

The boreal wintertime atmospheric responses, especially cold events over central Asia, to low sea-ice concentration (SIC) with and without realistic daily variation over the Barents Sea are explored with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (CAM4.0). The results show that the general atmospheric responses to approximately equal winter-mean Arctic sea-ice loss with a similar pattern but with climatological versus realistic daily variation are different. With the forcing of low SIC with climatological daily variation, Asian cold events become a little longer and stronger than in the control experiment; this mainly results from the enhancement of a 500-hPa Ural anticyclonic anomaly. However, the low SIC forcing that includes realistic daily variability greatly intensifies central Asian cold events and the cyclonic anomaly downstream of the Ural anticyclone. Further analysis reveals that Asian cold events are closely associated with Arctic deep warming at an intraseasonal time scale, which is also the strongest in the perturbed experiment forced by low SIC with realistic daily variation. This work provides a better understanding of the linkage between sea-ice variation over the Barents Sea and central Asian cold events, which may improve extreme weather prediction. It also implies that it is necessary to force air–sea coupling models and atmospheric models with realistic daily SIC in the study of the relationship between Arctic sea ice and mid-latitude cold events.

Linkage between the NAO and Siberian high events on the intraseasonal timescale

The Siberian high (SH) is a dominant component of the boreal winter circulation, and it significantly controls the climate of almost the entirety of continental Asia. Inspired by a case study of the “boss level” cold wave in 2016, intraseasonal SH events are classified into two types: positive-North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-related and negative-NAO-related SH events. Composite analysis shows that the SH events associated with the positive NAO often occur west of Eurasia and gradually amplify further westwards across Eurasia, which leads to warm Arctic-cold Eurasian surface temperature anomalies. The negative-NAO-related SH events often occur east of Eurasia and lead to almost all of the Eurasian negative surface temperature anomalies. Besides, the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in the negative-NAO-related SH events presents stronger than that in the negative-NAO-related SH events. Before the peaks of the positive-NAO-related SH events, an upper tropospheric Rossby wave train originates from the North Atlantic, propagates across northern Eurasia, and interacts with preexisting cold surface anomalies over central Siberia, which is particularly crucial for the development and amplification of the positive-NAO-related SH events. In addition, the synoptic eddy-induced feedback originating from the North Pacific is the key factor in the development and amplification of the negative-NAO-related SH events.

Origin of the Warm Arctic–Cold North American Pattern on the Intraseasonal Time Scale

Abstract The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern (WACC) of near-surface air temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents. Whether the existence of this pattern is due to variability of sea ice or is caused by atmospheric internal dynamics is subject to debate. Based on a long integration of a primitive equation atmospheric model (SGCM), this study examines the origin of the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern (WACNA), which is characterized by a pair of opposite surface air temperature anomalies over the high-latitude Chukchi–Bering Sea region and the North American continent, in boreal winter on the intraseasonal time scale. The model atmosphere is maintained by a time-independent forcing, so that atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. It is found that the SGCM model simulates well the behavior of the observed WACNA pattern. The WACNA pattern develops by interacting with the time-mean flow and synoptic-scale transient eddies. Two pathways of Rossby wave propagation are associated with WACNA. The northern pathway originates from eastern Siberia moving eastward across the Bering Strait to Canada, and the southern pathway is rooted in the subtropical waveguide propagating across the eastern North Pacific. Our simulation of this pattern implies that tropospheric dynamics alone can generate the WACNA, and the predictability associated with this pattern is likely limited by its internal dynamics nature. Significance Statement The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern of temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents, which implies possible impacts of polar warming on midlatitude climate. There has been debate on whether the existence of this pattern depends on variability of sea ice or can be caused by processes within the atmosphere. In this study, we use a simple atmospheric model, which has a constant forcing; thus, atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. We show that atmospheric internal dynamics alone can generate the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern. The result has implications for our understanding of the impact of global warming.

Sources and Pathways of Intraseasonal Meridional Kinetic Energy in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean

Abstract In the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, meridional velocity variability exhibits a pronounced peak on intraseasonal time scales whereas zonal velocity dominantly varies on seasonal to interannual time scales. We focus on the intraseasonal meridional velocity variability away from the near-surface layer, its source regions, and its pathways into the deep ocean. This deep intraseasonal velocity variability plays a key role in equatorial dynamics as it is an important energy source for the deep equatorial circulation. The results are based on the output of a high-resolution ocean model revealing intraseasonal energy levels along the equator at all depths that are in good agreement with shipboard and moored velocity data. Spectral analyses reveal a pronounced signal of intraseasonal Yanai waves with westward phase velocities and zonal wavelengths longer than 450 km. Different sources and characteristics of these Yanai waves are identified: near the surface between 40° and 10°W, low-baroclinic-mode Yanai waves with periods of around 30 days are excited. These waves have a strong seasonal cycle with a maximum in August. High-frequency Yanai waves (10–20-day period) are excited at the surface east of 10°W. In the region between the North Brazil Current and the Equatorial Undercurrent, high-baroclinic-mode Yanai waves with periods between 30 and 40 days are generated. Yanai waves with longer periods (40–80 days) are shed from the deep western boundary current. The Yanai wave energy is carried along beams eastward and downward, thus explaining differences in strength, structure, and periodicity of the meridional intraseasonal variability in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Significance Statement Past studies show that intraseasonal meridional kinetic energy is important for the deep equatorial circulation (DEC). However, numerical studies use intraseasonal variability with varying characteristics to investigate the formation and maintenance of the DEC. This is partly because of sparse observations at depth that are limited to single locations. This study investigates intraseasonal meridional kinetic energy in the equatorial Atlantic in a high-resolution ocean model that is tested against available shipboard and moored observations. We analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and the baroclinic structure of intraseasonal variability. Using the model, we identify different sources and pathways of intraseasonal energy in the deep equatorial Atlantic. We offer groundwork for further studies on the formation and maintenance of the DEC.