Intraseasonal Oscillation Research Articles

Importance of Seasonally Evolving Near‐Surface Salinity Stratification on Mixed Layer Heat Budget During Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Northern Bay of Bengal in 2019

AbstractThe discharge of freshwater from major rivers into the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB) increases dramatically during the summer monsoon season, reaching a peak in August–September, and there is a corresponding increase in the vertical salinity gradient in the upper ocean. Here we study the impact of seasonally evolving near‐surface salinity stratification on the response of ocean mixed layer temperature (MLT) to Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISO), using accurate surface fluxes and high vertical resolution (∼2 m) hydrographic measurements from a mooring in the northern BoB (17.8°N, 89.5°E) during June–September 2019. Prominent MLT warming and cooling with a range of 1.5°C is observed between suppressed (clear skies, calm winds) and active (cloudy, windy) phases of MISO convection. However, the intraseasonal MLT response to the active phase of a late‐season MISO event is minimal compared to MISO events in early summer. We infer this is primarily due to the much smaller contribution from oceanic vertical processes (∼6 Wm−2) in late summer 2019, compared to their role in early summer (−15 to −55 Wm−2). During the active phase of the MISO event of late summer 2019, the combined effect of reduced entrainment and weak vertical temperature gradients associated with a barrier layer inhibits near‐surface cooling. Conversely, the near‐surface salinity stratification and the barrier layer are weak during MISO events in the early summer of 2019—these hydrographic conditions lead to enhanced MLT cooling in response to MISO, apparently through a freer turbulent exchange of cool thermocline water with the surface layer.

Environmental Controls on the Tropical Island Diurnal Cycle in the Context of Intraseasonal Variability

Abstract The mechanisms regulating the relationship between the tropical island diurnal cycle and large-scale modes of tropical variability such as the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) are explored in observations and an idealized model. Specifically, the local environmental conditions associated with diurnal cycle variability are explored. Using Luzon Island in the northern Philippines as an observational test case, a novel probabilistic framework is applied to improve the understanding of diurnal cycle variability. High-amplitude diurnal cycle days tend to occur with weak to moderate offshore low-level wind and near to above average column moisture in the local environment. The transition from the BSISO suppressed phase to the active phase is most likely to produce the wind and moisture conditions supportive of a substantial diurnal cycle over western Luzon and the South China Sea (SCS). Thus, the impact of the BSISO on the local diurnal cycle can be understood in terms of the change in the probability of favorable environmental conditions. Idealized high-resolution 3D Cloud Model 1 (CM1) simulations driven by base states derived from BSISO composite profiles are able to reproduce several important features of the observed diurnal cycle variability with BSISO phase, including the strong, land-based diurnal cycle and offshore propagation in the transition phases. Background wind appears to be the primary variable controlling the diurnal cycle response, but ambient moisture distinctly reduces precipitation strength in the suppressed BSISO phase and enhances it in the active phase.

The 10‐ to 30‐Day Intraseasonal Weather Process Associated With Wintertime PM2.5 Pollution in Eastern China

AbstractSevere PM2.5 pollution strikes winter eastern China, while its physical process associated with the atmospheric evolution from several days to weeks is not clear. This study uses weather types as intermediate agents between large‐scale atmospheric circulation and regional air pollution, to explore the whole circulation evolutionary chain related to wintertime PM2.5 pollution in eastern China. We extract objectively 6 weather types (WTs) for wintertime surface synoptic patterns in eastern China and analyze quantitatively the impacts of WTs on PM2.5 pollution. Then the preferred transitions between WTs are explored to explain potential weather process. We find a most frequently recurring circulation evolution corresponding to Mongolia high pressure that stretches southward to eastern China, referred as the WTs transition of YSH− > BLH− > MH, with PM2.5 increased in North China and dissipated as the high pressure moves southward. Further to establish intraseasonal connections between large‐scale circulation and regional synoptic patterns, several leading evolutionary chains are discovered among tropical Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical teleconnections, and WTs of eastern China at an extended period. The positive or negative phase of teleconnections can indicate the WTs change 4–10 days in advance, while MJO further extends that indicative effect to 10–15 days. The intraseasonal oscillations of teleconnections such as conventional Eurasia, Scandinavia, Arctic Oscillation, Polar/Eurasia, Western Pacific and East Atlantic are associated with the transition of YSH− > BLH− > MH, and MJO may act as a precursor of teleconnection phases to extend effectively the prediction time for surface weather conditions and air pollution in eastern China.

Contrasting controls on convection at latitude zones near and away from the equator for the Indian summer monsoon

Understanding controls on convection on various timescales is crucial for improved monsoon rainfall forecasting. Although the literature points to vertically homogeneous vorticity signatures preceding rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon, we show using reanalysis data that, for rainfall associated with northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs), different controls are present at different latitude zones. For the latitude zone close to the equator (5∘N–14∘N) and including the southern Indian region, a conventional dynamical control on rainfall exists with barotropic vorticity leading ISO rainfall by about five days. In contrast, for the latitude zone away from the equator (15∘N–24∘N; covering the central Indian region), thermodynamic fields control ISO rainfall, with barotropic vorticity following rainfall by two days on average. Over central India, the pre-moistening of the boundary layer (BL) yields maximum moist static energy (MSE) about four days prior to ISO rainfall. Analyzing the statistics of individual events verifies these observations. Similar thermodynamic control is also present for the large-scale extreme rainfall events (LEREs) occurring over central India. These high rainfall events are preceded by positive MSE anomalies arising from the moisture preconditioning of the BL. The resulting convection then leads to a maximum in barotropic vorticity 12 h after the rainfall maximum. Characterizing these influences on convection occurring over various timescales can help identify the dominant mechanisms that govern monsoon convection. This can help reduce climate model biases in simulating Indian monsoon rainfall.

Extremely long-lived marine heatwave in South China Sea during summer 2020: Combined effects of the seasonal and intraseasonal variations

South China Sea (SCS) experienced an exceptionally long-lived marine heatwave (MHW) event in summer 2020, which broke the historical records in terms of its time duration since 1982. This long-lasting MHW was primarily attributed to the combined effects of the seasonal cycle (SC) and 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) components of anomalous atmospheric circulations. During the SC developing phase, the superimposed anticyclonic circulation regimes of the SC and 30–60-day ISO jointly contributed to the first warming sea surface temperature (SST) peak over the central SCS in July, via the combined effects of net downward shortwave radiation (SWR) and latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. In contrast, during the SC decaying phase, the SCS MHW-related warming SST tendency was mostly due to 30–60-day ISO signals. During the growth phase of ISO, the joint warming effect of the SWR and LHF anomalies was the dominant factor maintaining the SCS MHW. In the decaying phase of 30–60-day ISO, however, the second MHW-related warming peak around Beibu Gulf in September was mainly contributed by the sharply reduced LHF loss due to strong southwesterly anomalies over the northern SCS on the 30–60-day timescale. The varying SC component plays a crucial role in the occurrence and maintenance of MHWs, while the 30–60-day ISO can effectively regulate the development and pattern of SCS MHWs. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of the SC component, the 30–60-day ISO should also be considered for fully understanding the extreme MHW events.

Interplay between Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation and Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Warming

Abstract The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) features more distinctive and complex propagation characteristics than its wintertime counterpart, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). While the relationship between the MJO and the Arctic stratosphere during boreal winter has been widely documented, the linkage between the BSISO and the Antarctic stratosphere during austral winter has not been extensively discussed. Here, after identifying the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric polar vortex warming (SPVW) events, we reveal the bidirectional connection between BSISO and SPVW. Before onset of the SPVW events, the occurrence frequency and amplitude of BSISO phase 5 (P5) shows a significant increase. The most significant responses of the SH polar stratospheric temperature to the BSISO are found about 10 days after BSISO P5. Thus, to some extent, BSISO P5 can be regarded as a precursor to the SH SPVW event, which is attributed to the enhanced upward propagation and dissipation of planetary waves in the SH stratosphere induced by the BSISO P5. After onset of the SPVW events, a significant increase in the occurrence and amplitude of BSISO P6 is observed, corresponding to the enhanced convection over the South China Sea and southern Philippine Sea. Tropical upwelling associated with the strengthened Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) induced by the SPVW tends to result in unstable circumstances in the tropical upper troposphere. Then the high correlation between static stability at 150 hPa and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies over the South China Sea and southern Philippine Sea provides robust evidence that the intensity of convective activity in the tropics can indeed be modulated by the variability in SH stratospheric polar vortex. Significance Statement The relationship between the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar stratosphere remains unclear. After selecting the stratospheric polar vortex warming (SPVW) events, we reveal the two-way connection between BSISO and SPVW. Before the SPVW, the significant increase in occurrence and amplitude of BSISO phase 5 (P5) suggests that BSISO P5 can be regarded as a precursor to the weakened polar vortex. After the SPVW, the significant increase in occurrence and amplitude of BSISO phase 6 (P6) establishes that environmental alteration in tropical upper troposphere induced by the SPVW provides a favorable condition for the growth of ensuing convective activity. The results here help us better understand the potential link between stratospheric polar vortex and tropical intraseasonal oscillation.

Intraseasonal oscillations of the Andaman Sea thermocline

Variations in the upper ocean thermal structure have significant implications for air-sea interaction and upper-ocean ecosystem processes. Vertical profiles of temperature measured by a moored buoy located at 10.5°N, 94°E in the Andaman Sea and simulation by an Indian Ocean model are used in this study to characterise the intraseasonal variations (ISV) in the Andaman Sea (AndS) thermal structure and identify their sources. The seasonal variations in the upper ocean thermal structure show a strong semi-annual cycle driven by monsoons. The sub-surface temperature shows significant intraseasonal oscillations within a band of 40–110 days, which are de-coupled from that in the mixed layer, which has dominant periodicity in the band of 90–120 days. Thermocline ISV are seasonally modulated with a primary peak during August–September and a secondary peak during February–March, with significant year-to-year variations. A cross-wavelet analysis shows that ISV in the 40–60 days period is in phase with that at the eastern boundary and they are locally forced by the passage of eddies. The 60–110 day band is out of phase with the eastern boundary and is forced by Rossby waves radiated from the equatorially generated intraseasonal coastal Kelvin waves.

Evaluating and Improving the Models' Prediction Skills for the Relationship Between the Summer NWPSH in Different Months

AbstractCompared to interannual and interdecadal variations, inadequate attention has been given to intraseasonal changes in the summer northwest Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH). During 1981–2005, the north Indian Ocean (NIO) and NWPSH exhibit significant relationships from June to August, while the influences of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation 1 (BSISO1) in June and August differ from its impacts in July, resulting in a significant correlation between the NWPSH in June and August. The models capture NIO's roles but underestimate BSISO1's influences, leading to an underestimation (overestimation) of the relationship between NWPSH in June and August (adjacent two months). A dynamical‐statistical approach based on the close relationship between June and August NWPSH is proposed to improve models' prediction capabilities. Improved results show the mean correlation coefficients (root mean square errors) between prediction and observation for August precipitation and geopotential height increase by 57% and 21% (decrease by 0.27 mm/day and 1.61 m).

Propagation pathways of Indo-Pacific rainfall extremes are modulated by Pacific sea surface temperatures

Intraseasonal variation of rainfall extremes within boreal summer in the Indo-Pacific region is driven by the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), a quasi-periodic north-eastward movement of convective precipitation from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific. Predicting the spatiotemporal location of the BSISO is essential for subseasonal prediction of rainfall extremes but still remains a major challenge due to insufficient understanding of its propagation pathway. Here, using unsupervised machine learning, we characterize how rainfall extremes travel within the region and reveal three distinct propagation modes: north-eastward, eastward-blocked, and quasi-stationary. We show that Pacific sea surface temperatures modulate BSISO propagation — with El Niño-like (La Niña-like) conditions favoring quasi-stationary (eastward-blocked) modes—by changing the background moist static energy via local overturning circulations. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for early warning of rainfall extremes in the region up to four weeks in advance.

Westward‐Propagating Disturbances Shape Diverse MJO Propagation

AbstractUnderstanding eastward‐propagating mechanisms of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is of great importance for the subseasonal prediction of extreme weather and climate worldwide. Using global satellite observations and reanalysis data, this study unravels that dual combinations of strong/weak westward‐ (ISOw) and eastward‐propagating intraseasonal oscillation (ISOe) can shape diverse MJO propagations documented previously using clustering analysis. The dry ISOw signals from the Central Pacific strengthen the leading suppressed convection over the Western Pacific (WP) and, on the contrary, weaken the moist ISOe convection over the Maritime Continent. Thus, when ISOe is weak over the WP, the strong (weak) dryness of ISOw likely causes a jump‐like (stand‐like) MJO mode. In contrast, a propagating MJO is supported when ISOe becomes strong over the WP, and a further strengthening of the ISOw dryness will presumably accelerate MJO; moreover, a weakening of ISOw might slow down the MJO speed.

Influence of boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations on the occurrences of Marine Heatwave events over the North Bay of Bengal

Influence of boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations on the occurrences of Marine Heatwave events over the North Bay of Bengal

Long-Term Trends and Interannual Variability of Southwesterly Flows around Southern Taiwan during 44 Mei-Yu Seasons

Abstract This study investigates the characteristics and long-term trends of southwesterly flows around southern Taiwan (SWs) during mei-yu seasons (15 May–15 June) from 1979 to 2022. The results show that the number of SWs in general exhibited an increasing trend over this 44-yr period, with a decadal oscillation starting from a relatively small number in the 1980s and reaching a relative peak in the 2000s. This tendency posts a potential threat to Taiwan because of the increasing trend of heavy rainfall associated with the higher moisture flux of the SWs events. The SWs activity was influenced by the long-term increasing trend of geopotential height gradients and their decadal variability near Taiwan. When the intraseasonal oscillation was evident, the weather system mainly affecting the occurrence of SWs was the low pressure system to the north of Taiwan; when it was weak, the intensity and location of the western North Pacific subtropical high to the south of Taiwan was relatively more important. In addition, the SWs index, which was highly correlated with the precipitation during mei-yu seasons, can effectively reflect the interannual variability of precipitation in Taiwan in periods of different lengths. These findings indicate that the SWs index can be used as a monsoonal precipitation index for Taiwan, especially southern Taiwan.

Characteristic Analysis of the 10–30-Day Intraseasonal Oscillation over Mid-High-Latitude Eurasia in Boreal Summer

The aim of this study is to investigate the characteristics of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) with a 10–30-day cycle over mid-high-latitude Eurasia during boreal summer. The leading mode of this ISO is determined using an extended empirical orthogonal function analysis. Through a phase composite analysis, it is observed that a southeastward-propagating wave train with a quasi-barotropic structure is present in Eurasia. The dynamical mechanism and energy conversion affecting its propagation are also analyzed. The negative (positive) temperature tendency appears in the southeastern part of the temperature anomaly in the lower troposphere (upper troposphere), resulting in further southeastward displacement of the temperature perturbation. A diagnosis of temperature tendency shows that the main cause of the southeastward movement is the advection of anomalous temperature by the mean zonal wind. The energy conversion analysis reveals that by converting kinetic energy and potential energy, the ISO perturbation acquires energy from the summertime mean flow during its southeastward movement.

Distinct changes in boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the western North Pacific under mega and equatorial La Niña conditions

Distinct changes in boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the western North Pacific under mega and equatorial La Niña conditions

Intriguing Aspects of Polar-to-Tropical Mesospheric Teleconnections during the 2018 SSW: A Meteor Radar Network Study

Using a network of meteor radar observations, observational evidence of polar-to-tropical mesospheric coupling during the 2018 major sudden stratosphere warming (SSW) event in the northern hemisphere is presented. In the tropical lower mesosphere, a maximum zonal wind reversal (−24 m/s) is noted and compared with that identified in the extra-tropical regions. Moreover, a time delay in the wind reversal between the tropical/polar stations and the mid-latitudes is detected. A wide spectrum of waves with periods of 2 to 16 days and 30–60 days were observed. The wind reversal in the mesosphere is due to the propagation of dominant intra-seasonal oscillations (ISOs) of 30–60 days and the presence and superposition of 8-day period planetary waves (PWs). The ISO phase propagation is observed from high to low latitudes (60° N to 20° N) in contrast to the 8-day PW phase propagation, indicating the change in the meridional propagation of winds during SSW, hence the change in the meridional circulation. The superposition of dominant ISOs and weak 8-day PWs could be responsible for the delay of the wind reversal in the tropical mesosphere. Therefore, this study has strong implications for understanding the reversed (polar to tropical) mesospheric meridional circulation by considering the ISOs during SSW.

Factors affecting interannual variation in late summer rainfall in the Red River Delta of Vietnam

Based on station monthly observational statistics, the major rainfall in the Red River Delta (RRD) of Vietnam occurs in late summer (July–September) with conspicuous year-to-year variation. Using the ± 0.8 of the seasonal total rainfall standard deviation as criteria, seven wet and six dry years are identified over the period 1983–2015. In addition to the 70.5% of the seasonal total rainfall contributed by the heavy rainfall days, the distinct heavy rainfall accumulation difference between wet and dry years seems to fundamentally establish these two separated extreme wet and dry groups. As revealed from further analyses, the large variability in rainfall is attributed to the influence of tropical cyclones (TCs) and 7–24- and 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs); in particular, the number of TCs affecting the RRD and rainfall produced by TCs are more (less) during the wet (dry) years, and the amplitudes of ISOs are also enhanced (reduced). In many cases, heavy rainfall days are induced by the combined effect of both ISOs and TCs, while some heavy rainfall events are mainly triggered by ISOs. It is found from the water vapor budget analyses that an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) dominates over the Indochina Peninsula in wet (dry) years, resulting in more (less) water vapor being transported to the RRD, whereas the anomalous convergence (divergence) of water vapor flux leads to the maintenance of excessive (insufficient) rainfall over the RRD. However, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing shows minor effects on the interannual variation in rainfall in the RRD.

Impact of Subtropical ISO Propagation Routes on Summertime Submonthly Wave Patterns and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific

Abstract This study examined the impact of northward- and westward-propagating summertime intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) on submonthly wave patterns and tropical cyclones (TCs) in the subtropical western North Pacific. In the ISO westerly phase, submonthly wave patterns associated with the northward-propagating ISO appeared to be more energetic and most of the corresponding TCs maintained their wind speed for a relatively long period. Perturbation kinetic energy exhibited a stronger maximum in the ISO northward mode than in the westward mode. The analysis of barotropic conversion in the ISO northward mode revealed that an increase in barotropic conversion can be attributed to a strong association between the perturbation zonal wind component and the background flow. Therefore, submonthly wave patterns moving in a direction similar to that of the northward-propagating ISO continuously extracted energy from the background flow to the south of the submonthly base region. However, in the westward mode, the ISO propagating in a direction almost perpendicular to the submonthly wave pattern tracks not only altered the direction of the wave pattern but also created a background environment that was detached from submonthly perturbations. Thus, the background flow transferred less energy to submonthly wave patterns, resulting in shorter TC durations in the ISO westward mode than in the northward mode. Significance Statement In this study, we focused on the northward and westward ISO propagation routes in the subtropical western North Pacific to investigate their impact on the submonthly wave pattern and TCs. This is important because the ISO propagating behavior can change the background flow for the submonthly wave pattern. The results showed that the northward ISO tended to enhance the wave pattern through strengthening the background component of the barotropic conversion. TCs associated with submonthly wave patterns tended to maintain their intensity longer in the ISO northward mode. The wave pattern associated with the westward-propagating ISO remained weaker.

The influence of 10–30-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on the extended-range forecast skill of extreme rainfall over southern China

The influence of 10–30-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on the extended-range forecast skill of extreme rainfall over southern China

Propagation Diversity of Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation of Summer Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Abstract Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) has obvious characteristics of intraseasonal oscillation, but there are different inferences about its propagation. Based on observed precipitation and ERA5 data, the propagation diversity of summer quasi-biweekly precipitation in the MLYR is analyzed. The results show that summer precipitation in the MLYR has obvious quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) characteristics, and precipitation QBWO events can be classified into three categories: southward, northward, and local oscillation events. The frequency of southward events is significantly higher than that of northward or local oscillation events. For southward events, a wave train is observed in the mid–high latitudes and propagates southward in East Asia. The northward and local oscillation events are closely related to the QBWO of the northwest Pacific in low latitudes. The meridional asymmetry of quasi-biweekly divergence and background wind is responsible for the diversity of QBWO propagation. Quasi-biweekly convergence is usually located on the south of the quasi-biweekly cyclone, so the convergence interacts with geostrophic vorticity to guide the quasi-biweekly cyclone to move southward; in the southerly basic flow, north of the quasi-biweekly cyclone is positive relative vorticity advection, which leads the quasi-biweekly cyclone to move northward. Therefore, quasi-biweekly disturbances originating from north of the MLYR, with weak basic wind, mainly move southward under the influence of convergence. However, quasi-biweekly disturbances at low latitudes move northward under the guidance of relative vorticity advection due to the strong basic flow. A disturbance originating from the MLYR presents local oscillation under the coaction of quasi-biweekly relative vorticity advection and divergence.

Seasonal Dependence of TC–ISO Relationship and Its Potential Effect on the Intensification of TCs in the Western North Pacific since the Early 2000s

Abstract This study reported that the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) to major TCs (MTCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) region exhibited strong difference between boreal autumn (SON) and summer (JJA) since the early 2000s; the ratio of MTCs to the total number of TCs (MTC ratio) has continuously increased in SON but not in JJA. Due to this difference, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The increase of the MTC ratio in SON was associated with interdecadal variability in TC activity and 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) variability. The mean genesis location of TCs and ISOs accompanied by a negative outgoing longwave radiation anomaly shrunk and shifted westward simultaneously in SON since the early 2000s due to the westward extension of the WNP subtropical high. However, this change was not observed in JJA. This westward shift of ISO substantially modulated large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, which in turn enhanced the TC–ISO interaction and accelerated energy conversion between TC and ISO. The kinetic energy budget along the MTC track was further analyzed to understand the TC–ISO interaction. Both the lower-level barotropic energy conversion (CK) and upper-level baroclinic energy conversion (CE) contributed to the intensification of TCs. CK mainly resulted from the scale interaction between TCs and ISO, whereas CE resulted from TC-related perturbations. Significant Statement This study reported the seasonality of TC intensification in the WNP during the early 2000s. Here, we extended the previous work to present that the interdecadal increase of the ratio of TC developing to major TC (MTC; ≥category 3; referred to MTC ratio) exhibits strong seasonal dependence. That is, the MTC ratio stays stationary approximately in 30% for JJA, but it jumps from 40% to 50% in SON. Consequently, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The possible physical processes behind the increase of MTC ratio were discussed. These results may advance our knowledge about the TC intensification and were helpful for TC prediction.