Intraday Stock Returns Research Articles

Intraday stock returns and performance of a simple market model

With enhancements in information technology, increased institutional and automated trading, and previously unmatched availability of online trading grew the attention to intraday movements of security prices and tests associated with them. This study analyses the properties of both observed 5-minute stock returns and of excess returns obtained by using a variety of alternative models common to event studies. Using observed 5-minute returns, various event study methodologies are simulated and repeatedly applied to samples which have been created by random selection of securities and random assignment of event dates to each security. The study examines the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis of no average abnormal performance when it is true and the probability of detecting a given abnormal performance, which is introduced to the data at the randomly selected event dates.

Risk, jumps, and diversification

We test for price discontinuities, or jumps, in a panel of high-frequency intraday stock returns and an equiweighted index constructed from the same stocks. Using a new test for common jumps that explicitly utilizes the cross-covariance structure in the returns to identify non-diversifiable jumps, we find strong evidence for many modest-sized, yet highly significant, cojumps that simply pass through standard jump detection statistics when applied on a stock-by-stock basis. Our results are further corroborated by a striking within-day pattern in the significant cojumps, with a sharp peak at the time of regularly scheduled macroeconomic news announcements. r 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Spin in Earnings Information and Stock Returns

This study empirically examines whether spin in earnings information in the financial press or in company press releases can alter investor behaviour and affect stock returns. Our sample includes 72 companies from the S&P 100 over the sample period 2000:Q1 to 2005:Q1. Using intraday stock returns, our results suggest that spin in earnings information as reported in the news media has a greater impact on stock returns than company press releases.

A Study of Intraday Returns

To examine the time-series predictability of intraday stock returns, I generate winners and losers according to their hourly returns and compare their post performance within the same trading day for large and small NYSE stock samples separately. The empirical results suggest distinctly different intraday return patterns exist for these two samples. The large stock sample shows a momentum-reversal pattern, that is, winners will outperform losers for about one and half hours and then underperform them. However, for small stocks, I observe a continued-momentum intraday return pattern, which implies that the momentum lasts through the observation period and no reversal occurs. I also find that in both samples the momentum profit based on the winners and losers generated in the morning is more pronounced than that based on the winners and losers generated at noon. The empirical patterns found above may be caused by underreaction or liquidity-driven mechanism. The difference between large and small stock samples indicates that large stocks may have a faster speed when reacting to new information and achieving market efficiency than small stocks.

The intraday stock return characteristics surrounding price limit hits

We extend the existing studies on price limits by testing the return characteristics surrounding intraday price limits. We exclude limit hits that last through end of the day (interday limit hits) and consider the pre-event directions of price movements, as well as firm size. A set of stocks that experience large price changes but do not hit the limits is identified as controlled samples. Comparing the hit and non-hit samples, we show that intraday price limits do not seem to have strong influences on the return dynamics. Directions of pre-event price movements are more important in explaining the return characteristics and firm size is also found to affect the intraday return dynamics.

Public information arrival and volatility of intraday stock returns

This study employs firm-specific announcements as a proxy for information flows and investigates the information–volatility relation using high-frequency data from the Australian Stock Exchange. Our analysis reveals a positive and significant impact of the arrival rate of the selected news variable on the conditional variance of stock returns, even after controlling for the potential effects of trading volume and high opening volatility. Furthermore, the inclusion of the news variable in the conditional variance equation of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model also reduces volatility persistence, especially with intraday data. Combined with the evidence that news arrivals display a very strong pattern of autocorrelation, our results are consistent with the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis, which attributes conditional heteroscedasticity of stock returns to time-dependence in the news arrival process.

Examining intraday returns with buy/sell information

This paper examines high frequency stock returns with buy/sell signals. It demonstrates how such trading information could be utilized in a qualitative threshold framework to explain and predict the asymmetric behaviour of intraday stock returns. The study discovers that the buyer-dominating regime is consistently associated with negative returns, while the seller-dominating regime is consistently associated with positive returns. This is consistent with a suggestion of using the sign of the net buy/sell trading volume as the threshold indicator. Furthermore, the model renders better predicting power than that produced by a pure generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. Most interestingly, these results are quite robust across all 12 actively traded stocks on the Australian Stock Exchange that have been examined, and hence provide strong support for the potential usefulness of buy/sell signals and the qualitative threshold model in analysing the dynamics of high frequency financial ...

Public Information Arrival and Volatility of Intraday Stock Returns

Public Information Arrival and Volatility of Intraday Stock Returns

Intraday Stock Returns, Time-Varying Risk Premia, and Diurnal Mood Variation

Previous papers on intraday and interday stock transactions have documented a variety of systematic patterns in spreads, volumes, returns, and returns volatility. Several theoretical models have also been proposed to explain the observed patterns, but none have fully explained the movement of returns during the course of the day. In this paper, I consider a mechanism by which intraday returns may vary in a systematic manner as a result of behavioral factors rooted in the psychology of depression. By surveying past studies in finance, I find evidence consistent with a close relationship between intradaily variation in human sentiment and patterns in intraday stock returns. In exploring this explanation, I find hourly returns do not follow the U-shaped pattern conventionally believed to hold for intraday returns. Instead, I find returns in the morning significantly exceed those in the afternoon across a variety of time periods and datasets, a novel discovery consistent with the behavioral explanation of returns.

The impact of the Japanese market on the intraday Hong Kong stock returns

This paper examines the impact of the price movement of the Japanese market on the Hong Kong market. We find that the Hong Kong stock prices react rapidly to the return information of the Japanese market. The evidence also indicates that the large price movement of the Japanese market can be used as an indicator for the Hong Kong market. The price reaction of the Hong Kong market is instantaneous and takes place in the opening minutes of the afternoon session. However, there is no excess profits when the transactions costs are included. Finally, the Hong Kong market has a significantly higher turnover when the Japanese market is open.