Movement Of Intertropical Convergence Zone Research Articles

Geochemical records provide evidences for the evolution of the marine redox environment in the southwestern Sumatra waters over the past 35,000 years

The marine redox environment (MRE) can affect marine productivity and nutrient cycling, as well as governs material and energy transport. However, its evolution process and driving mechanism in different historical periods revealed significant regional characteristics. Southwestern Sumatra waters, located at the Indo-Pacific Ocean convergence, are an ideal region for studying the evolution of MRE due to significant upwelling and variable productivity levels resulting from the seasonal monsoonal activity. In this study, based on the sediment core SO184–10043, systematic trace element geochemical analysis was conducted for reconstructing the MRE over the past 35,000 years using redox proxies, namely, Ni/Co, U/Th, and biogenic Barium (Babio). Ni/Co and U/Th varied in a range of 1–4 and 0.2–1, indicating general oxic conditions with matching productivity levels indicated by Babio (ranging from 300 × 10–6 to 580 × 10–6). A comparison with other reconstructed archives indicated that the MRE records of the sediment core in this study were in consistence in responding to the high-latitude climate records with strong semi-precession and millennial fluctuations. Suggestively, these fluctuations correspond to the natural summertime insolation, triggering the latitudinal motions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), as well as leading to corresponding changes in the seasonal Indian monsoon system. Freshwater lids modulate the mixing effect by acting as barriers and influencing the upwelling development, thereby leading to strong oxic conditions in the MRE. Therefore, robust evidence on the millennial-scale variability in MRE driven by the ITCZ movement and regional monsoon changes in the tropical Indian Ocean is provided by the trace element archives employed in the present study, thereby providing novel insights into the evolution of MRE in response to global and local climate changes.

Change of marine redox environment in the western Okinawa Trough since the mid-Holocene: Evidence based on geochemical records

The marine redox environment (MRE) plays a crucial role in the conversion and preservation of seafloor material and is a significant factor in the ocean carbon cycle. The evolution and driving mechanism of MRE are complex and present distinct regional characteristics over different time scales. The Okinawa Trough, situated in the East Asian monsoon realm, is influenced by the Kuroshio Current and flushing water, and its closed geographical pattern and multiple environmental factors make it highly sensitive to climate and marine environment changes. In this study, sediment samples from core GHN056–09 retrieved in the western Okinawa Trough were analyzed to investigate the high-resolution evolution of MRE since the mid-Holocene. The concentration of redox-sensitive elements (V, Co, Ni) and total organic carbon (TOC) were measured. Co/Ni and V/(V+Ni) values in the sediment samples indicated predominantly oxic conditions with matching productivity levels indicated by TOC (in the range of 0.28–1.17%). The oxic condition decreased during 6500–1500 a BP, and a strengthening trend was identified from 1500 a BP to present. By comparing these records with climate and environmental records, we found that weaker El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and northward position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) resulted in less monsoon precipitation into the Okinawa Trough. Thinner freshwater lids could enhance seawater mixing at different layers, leading to strong oxic conditions. In contrast, stronger ENSO and southward position of ITCZ controlled by stronger solar insolation supplied more freshwater into the Okinawa Trough. Thicker freshwater barriers blocked the exchange of seawater from bottom to surface, resulting in weak oxic conditions. The trace element records in this study provide robust evidence on the high-resolution variability of MRE driven by the frequency of ENSO, movement of ITCZ, and changes in regional precipitation. Our findings offer new insights into the evolution of MRE in response to global and local climate changes.

Variability of thermocline temperature in the Bay of Bengal and its response to solar insolation and Indian monsoon over the last 15 kyr

Surface seawater stratification shows a sensitive response to solar insolation and large-scale ocean current, further playing an important role in the air-sea interactions at different time scales. However, the variation of surface seawater structure and its driving mechanism in the tropical Indian Ocean is poorly understood. We present a new record of thermocline temperature (TWT) obtained using oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca-temperature of the planktonic foraminifer Pulleniatina obliquiloculata (P. obliquiloculata) from core BoB-24 in the central Bay of Bengal (BoB). The results indicate that TWT rose rapidly from the Younger Dryas (YD) and persisted at a peak temperature value of 22.5 °C between 10 and 7 cal ka BP, and subsequently reduced by 1.5 °C in the middle Holocene period. The temporal variability of TWT occurred following the boreal summer insolation, associated with tropical climate changes such as the movement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as well as relevant changes of seasonal Indian monsoons. During the YD period, the southward movement of ITCZ and strengthened Indian winter monsoon (IWM) influenced the deepening of pycnocline, which caused subsurface warming and decreased stratification. During the middle Holocene, the northward return of ITCZ and strengthening of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) led to a stronger surface water stratification and present cooling trend of optimum TWT (10–7 cal ka BP). Furthermore, the millennial TWT changes presented in this study revealed a close link with North Atlantic climate changes, indicating a dynamic action of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

Variation in humidity and the forcing mechanism in Asian monsoon-influenced regions indicated by hematite/goethite from Baxian Lake, southern China, since AD 800

Understanding the potential mechanisms driving the precipitation pattern in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) area is significant to reconstructing the environmental and hydrological conditions over the past 2000 years. However, robust and consistent conclusions have been hampered by the complex processes controlling the dynamics and diverse interconnected linkage of the Asian monsoon. Here, we present a reconstruction of variations in humidity since AD 800, based on the ratio of hematite to goethite (Hem/Goe) and other magnetic parameters in the sediments of Baxian Lake, southern China. The record indicates that a dramatic transition from dry to humid climate occurred during AD 800–950 and then returned to extreme drought during the second half of the Medieval Warm Period. The fluctuations between a relatively wet climate and weak drought were also demonstrated during the Little Ice Age (AD 1450–1800). Climate-influenced vegetation coverage may influence the flux of weathered detrital magnetic minerals in sediments, as it hinders the input of coarser detritus into Baxian Lake. The magnetic minerals in the sediments were not significantly altered during the post-depositional processes. Additionally, the Hem/Goe record indicates that an opposite precipitation pattern occurred in southern China when compared with precipitation records in northern China and India. We ascribe this result to the superimposition of land-ocean-atmosphere dynamics on the traditional model of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) movement forced by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This is significant for enhancing our understanding of the relationship among the continent-ocean thermal gradient, ASM variation, ITCZ movement, El Niño Southern Oscillation-like events, and extreme climates in areas influenced by the ASM.

On the Relation between the Boreal Spring Position of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone and Atlantic Zonal Mode

Abstract Previous studies have talked about the existence of a relation between the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) and Atlantic zonal mode (AZM) via the meridional displacement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the Atlantic during boreal spring and the resulting cross-equatorial zonal winds. However, why the strong relation between the ITCZ (or AMM) and zonal winds does not translate into a strong relation between the ITCZ and AZM has not been explained. This question is addressed here, and it is found that there is a skewness in the relation between ITCZ and AZM: while a northward migration of ITCZ during spring in general leads to a cold AZM event in the ensuing summer, the southward migration of the ITCZ is less likely to lead to a warm event. This is contrary to what the previous studies imply. The skewness is attributed to the Atlantic seasonal cycle and to the strong seasonality of the AZM. All those cold AZM events preceded by a northward ITCZ movement during spring are found to strictly adhere to typical timings and evolution of the different Bjerknes feedback components involved. It is also observed that the causative mechanisms of warm events are more diverse than those of the cold events. These results can be expected to enhance our understanding of the AZM as well as that of chronic model biases and contribute to the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon through the links between the two as shown in our earlier studies.

The Penultimate Glacial Termination and Variability of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone

AbstractUnderstanding how the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) responds to abrupt climate change is essential for reconstructing large‐scale atmospheric circulation across climate transitions. However, key differences between dynamical models and observational constraints on ITCZ movement remain unresolved. Here, we examine the Pb and Nd radiogenic isotope signatures of dust deposited in the central equatorial Pacific (CEP) from 160 to 105 kyr. We quantified the relative contributions of Northern Hemisphere‐ and Southern Hemisphere‐sourced dust to the CEP. In contrast with previous model estimates, we demonstrate that South America is an important source of dust to the CEP during glacial periods. Our new observations provide a critical data set for verifying dynamical arguments about tropical hydroclimate. We infer that the southernmost position of the ITCZ precipitation centroid occurs between 136 and 131 kyr, coincident with the timing of North Atlantic Heinrich Stadial Event 11 (136 to 129 kyr).

Tropical cyclone activity affected by volcanically induced ITCZ shifts

Volcanic eruptions can affect global climate through changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation, and therefore could impact tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Here, we use ensemble simulations performed with an Earth System Model to investigate the impact of strong volcanic eruptions occurring in the tropical Northern (NH) and Southern (SH) Hemisphere on the large-scale environmental factors that affect TCs. Such eruptions cause a strong asymmetrical hemispheric cooling, either in the NH or SH, which shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward or northward, respectively. The ITCZ shift and the associated surface temperature anomalies then cause changes to the genesis potential indices and TC potential intensity. The effect of the volcanic eruptions on the ITCZ and hence on TC activity lasts for at least 4 years. Finally, our analysis suggests that volcanic eruptions do not lead to an overall global reduction in TC activity but rather a redistribution following the ITCZ movement. On the other hand, the volcanically induced changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or sea-surface temperature do not seem to have a significant impact on TC activity as previously suggested.

Observed Rainfall Trends over Singapore and the Maritime Continent from the Perspective of Regional-Scale Weather Regimes

AbstractStraddling the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the Maritime Continent (MC) experiences substantial rainfall variations from diurnal to interannual and longer time scales. In this study, rainfall over Singapore and the wider MC region are analyzed using objectively identified weather regimes. Eight regional-scale weather regimes are derived by k-means clustering of local vertical profiles of zonal and meridional winds, temperature, and specific humidity extracted over Singapore from ERA-Interim data for the period December 1980–November 2014. The composite synoptic flow and rainfall patterns over the region show that the weather regimes correspond to the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) across the equator. For Singapore, the regimes depict seasonal rainfall variability by capturing the alternating dry and wet phases of the prevailing local monsoon and transition periods associated with the regional-scale ITCZ movement. Following previous work, the regimes are used to examine the annual rainfall trend by calculating the contributions due to 1) changes in regime frequency, indicating regional-scale circulation changes, and 2) changes in within-regime precipitation, indicating altered thermodynamic conditions. The overall trend observed at Singapore and many other MC locations is overwhelmingly due to changes in within-regime precipitation. However, the overall trend masks the larger contribution resulting from regime frequency changes as these circulation changes tend to offset one another in reality. In many MC areas (including Singapore), summed rainfall changes due to regime frequency changes outweigh those due to changes in within-regime rainfall, when aggregated in an absolute sense.

STUDYING THE MOVEMENT OF THE INTER TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) OVER AFRICA INVERNAL EQUINOX

In this study, we have tried to study the movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over Africa in April by analyzing Temperature, (U, V) Wind and rainfall, studying oscillation of the ITCZ and its relationship with temperature in the different seasons, within the range of Africa in a long period of time (statistical period of 60 years). This is the first long term (monthly, annually, and decadal) study of the ITCZ over Africa, In this study, not only the exact position of ITCZ over Africa is determined but also its position change in the period of 60 years, These results could be used in studying the impacts of ITCZ on climate variations due to changes of position and movement of ITCZ, over Africa also the direct impacts of this movement on sudden changes of seasons start and end of untimely rains. Through the study of the ITCZ movement over Africa in vernal equinox, we find that it is limited between latitudes 2o N to 18o N, and the speed and direction of wind coming from the Tropical Continental air mass (cT) masses in addition to temperature, as well speed and direction of wind coming from the Tropical Maritime air mass (mT) air masses, all of them effect on the movement of ITCZ to the north and south, in different decades, which led to displacement of rain belt over Africa from north to south and vice versa , in addition to change in the amount of Total rainfall over the Abyssinian Plateau during the different decades .

Contribution of diverse monsoon precipitation over Central and Northern India during mid to Late Holocene

Abstracts The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation pattern over Indian subcontinent is looked through various high resolution speleothem oxygen (δ18O) isotope records from Mid to Late Holocene. The six cave locations distributed from central to northern India describing regional climatic conditions due to stalagmite deposition are considered. The stalagmite deposition reflects precipitation patterns by temporal variations of δ18O values. Oxygen isotope values reflect cumulative precipitation that is basically interpreted by averaged latitudinal site of inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Under the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulation, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mk3L version 1.0 – Part 2 (CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2) model output shows ITCZ movement from Bay of Bengal (BoB) to Arabian Sea (AS) during Mid to Late Holocene which resulted due to solar insolation changes. It reflects precipitation shift from BoB to AS as well as to core monsoon zone (CMZ) to the western Himalayas. The past millennium epoch, which consists little ice age (LIA) and middle warm period (MWP), shows large variations in 850 hPa geopotential height leading to high anomalous precipitation variability all over India during ISM. The high fluctuation in δ18O values during Mid Holocene over northern India led to drought conditions due to which Indus valley civilization vanished. The present study shows that the Himalayas received higher precipitation during late Holocene. That is basically governed by western disturbances (WD) as well as ISM. Present study summarizes that the mean annual precipitation cycle for entire epoch was roughly similar, but spatial distribution of precipitation during various epoch was quite divergent from Mid to Late Holocene. The onset of ISM was also similar but, withdrawal was comparatively unalike. Wherever, peaks of seasonal precipitation were alike over Indian subcontinent region, spatial distribution of precipitation were unlike.

Latitudinal change in benthic foraminiferal fauna by ITCZ movement along the ~131°W transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean

Modern and fossil benthic foraminifera were examined from nine surface sediments and two piston cores along the ~131°W transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This study was conducted to clarify the biotic response of abyssal benthic foraminifera during the last 220 ka to changes in the seasonal extent of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The abundance of modern benthic foraminifera was high at stations between the equator and 6°N, whereas it was low at stations north of 6°N, which is generally consistent with the latitudinal CaCO3 distribution of surface sediments. The northward increase of Epistominella exigua from the equator to ~6°N is similar to the seasonal variations in chlorophyll-a concentrations in the surface water and ITCZ position along ~131°W. This species was more common at core PC5103 (~6°N) than at core PC5101 (~2°N) after ~130 ka, when the Shannon-Wiener diversity (H’) between the two cores started to diverge. Hence, the presentday latitudinal difference in benthic foraminifera (E. exigua and species diversity) between ~2°N and ~6°N along ~131°W has been generally established since ~130 ka. According to the modern relationship between the seasonality of primary production and seasonal ITCZ variations in the northern margin of the ITCZ, the latitudinal divergence of benthic foraminiferal fauna between ~2°N and ~6°N since ~130 ka appear to have been induced by more distinct variations in the seasonal movement of ITCZ.

Sources of Sahelian‐Sudan moisture: Insights from a moisture‐tracing atmospheric model

AbstractThe summer rainfall across Sahelian‐Sudan is one of the main sources of water for agriculture, human, and animal needs. However, the rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability, which has attracted extensive scientific efforts to understand it. This study attempts to identify the source regions that contribute to the Sahelian‐Sudan moisture budget during July through September. We have used an atmospheric general circulation model with an embedded moisture‐tracing module (Community Atmosphere Model version 3), forced by observed (1979–2013) sea‐surface temperatures. The result suggests that about 40% of the moisture comes with the moisture flow associated with the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and originates from Guinea Coast, central Africa, and the Western Sahel. The Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Peninsula, and South Indian Ocean regions account for 10.2%, 8.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. Local evaporation and the rest of the globe supply the region with 20.3% and 13.2%, respectively. We also compared the result from this study to a previous analysis that used the Lagrangian model FLEXPART forced by ERA‐Interim. The two approaches differ when comparing individual regions, but are in better agreement when neighboring regions of similar atmospheric flow features are grouped together. Interannual variability with the rainfall over the region is highly correlated with contributions from regions that are associated with the ITCZ movement, which is in turn linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Our result is expected to provide insights for the effort on seasonal forecasting of the rainy season over Sahelian Sudan.

Some features of water vapor mixing ratio in tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere: Role of convection

Spatial and temporal variation of water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) is examined for its association with the convective activity in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over tropical region particularly Asian monsoon region (AMR) and Indonesian–Australian West Pacific region (IAWPR) using WVMR obtained from MLS satellite with simultaneous daily mean OLR from NOAA and daily mean wind from NCEP reanalysis. An examination of WVMR at various pressure levels during high water vapor regime (moist Phase) indicates that water vapor (WV) transport, in troposphere, is rather fast up to a level of ~147hPa. Seasonal variation of WVMR over tropical lower stratosphere (TLS) is noted to be closely associated with seasonal northward movement of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Convection activity over AMR appears to be a prominent contributor to the moist phase of WVMR seasonal cycle in TLS. However, other tropical regions may also be contributing to the seasonal variability of WVMR. Low WV (dry) phase of the WVMR seasonal cycle in TLS observed during NH winter and early spring months may be caused by the appearance of extreme cold temperatures (≤191K) close to tropopause heights over IAWPR. Mechanisms that could cause such low temperatures over IAWPR are discussed. Intraseasonal oscillations with period of 30–40days are observed in WVMR at various pressure levels. At 100hPa level such oscillations are noted to be closely associated with similar oscillation in OLR and temperature. These observations suggest that variations in OLR (proxy of convection activity) produce such oscillation in WVMR. Present analysis thus report signature of convection in upward transport of WV, seasonal and intraseasonal oscillation in WVMR in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS).

Deglacial dust provenance changes in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and implications for ITCZ movement

The provenance of eolian dust supplied to deep-sea sediments has the potential to offer insights into changes in past atmospheric circulation. Specifically, measuring temporal changes in dust provenance can shed light on changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a region acting as a barrier separating wind-blown material derived from northern versus southern hemisphere sources. Here we have analyzed Nd, Sr, and Pb isotope ratios in the operationally-defined detrital component extracted from deep-sea sediments in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) along a meridional transect at 110°W from 3°S to 7°N (ODP Leg 138, sites 848–853).Sr isotope results show that barite Sr has a significant influence on 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios of samples in the upwelling zone of the EEP. However, sites located >3° or more away from the equator (sites 852 and 853) are believed to not be affected by barite Sr and provide useful detrital Sr signals. 208Pb/206Pb and 207Pb/206Pb ratios in all cores fall into the Pb-isotope space of five potential dust sources (Asia, North and Central/South America, Sahara, and Australia), with no distinct isotopic fingerprinting of the dominant source(s). εNd values were most valuable for discerning detrital source provenance, and their values at all sites, ranging from −5.46 to −3.25, were more unradiogenic for sediments deposited during the last glacial than for those deposited during the Holocene. There are distinct latitudinal trends in the εNd values, with more radiogenic values further south and less radiogenic values further north, excluding site 848. This distinction holds true for both Holocene and last glacial periods. For the most southerly site, 848, we invoke, for the first time, a distinct southern hemisphere Australian source as being responsible for the unradiogenic Nd isotope ratios. Both average last glacial and Holocene εNd values show similar sharp gradients along the transect between 5.29°N and 2.77°N, suggesting little movement of the glacial ITCZ in the EEP. However, during the deglacial, this gradient is stronger and shifted further north between 5.29°N and 7.21°N, suggesting a more northerly, possibly stronger, deglacial ITCZ.

Seasonal and diurnal variation of convective available potential energy (CAPE) using COSMIC/FORMOSAT‐3 observations over the tropics

The global pattern of convective available potential energy (CAPE) at seasonal and diurnal time scales is discussed using 1 year of COSMIC/FORMOSAT‐3 satellite observations. The calculation of CAPE using temperature and humidity measurements of COSMIC is described. The estimated CAPE is grouped into 5 × 5 grid and is further classified into four seasons, namely, winter, spring, summer, and autumn. The CAPE magnitudes in general have high values over land as compared to oceanic region, which confirmed the consistency of CAPE calculations. The systematic migration of CAPE from Northern Hemisphere to Southern Hemisphere is observed during Northern Hemisphere summer to winter, coinciding with the movement of intertropical convergence zone. Once the seasonal pattern is established, the composite diurnal patterns of CAPE with 2 h resolution are obtained by combing all the observations in one season. Diurnal variation of CAPE has shown domination of semidiurnal variations at some latitudes (12 h) and diurnal variation (24 h) at some other latitudes. The mean removed CAPE is then subjected to Fourier analysis to extract the diurnal variation amplitudes. During the observational period, larger CAPE magnitudes are observed over the Indian Ocean during most of the seasons, comparable in magnitude to that of the land regions. As the CAPE and precipitation patterns have correlation, the present study demonstrated the capability of COSMIC/FORMOSAT‐3 to study the diurnal patterns of CAPE, which will have implications in interpreting the tropical diurnal precipitation patterns.

Application of satellite-derived OLR data in the prediction of the onset of Indian summer monsoon

Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data, obtained from NOAA polar orbiting satellites for the months March–June, for 31 years is utilized to investigate low-frequency oscillation in pre-monsoon convection over southwest peninsular Indian region. The analysis reveals a characteristic fall in OLR over the region, about 5–9 weeks prior to the onset of Indian summer monsoon in almost all the years under study. Such fall is shown to be related with a characteristic peak in convective activity associated with the movement of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the region. The results suggest an indirect non-linear relationship between the time of occurrence of the pre-monsoon convective peak and the onset date. A regression equation is developed to predict the onset date. The results of estimation of present method and that of an earlier method (based on conventional synoptic observations) are compared. The performance of both these methods is validated for two independent years (2007 and 2008). The study highlights the potential application of the developed method for the prediction of onset of Indian summer monsoon well in advance using the remotely sensed satellite-derived OLR data.

Records of the Nd isotope composition of seawater from the Bay of Bengal: Implications for the impact of Northern Hemisphere cooling on ITCZ movement

This study presents a record of planktonic foraminiferal neodymium isotopic gradients along a north–south transect in the Bay of Bengal during time slices of late Holocene and last glacial maximum (LGM) age, together with a record of planktonic foraminiferal variation in the northern Bay of Bengal (15°N) over the last 195 ky. In late Holocene core top planktonic foraminifera, the north–south ε Nd gradient rises from nonradiogenic values of − 12 at 20°N to − 10 at 5°N, in parallel with the modern surface salinity gradient controlled by discharge of Himalayan rivers in the northern Bay. During the LGM, ε Nd increased throughout the Bay, the contrast between northernmost and southernmost sites decreased, and maximum ε Nd values of − 6.5 occurred between 12 and 15°N. A small part of the shift to higher mean ε Nd throughout the Bay during the glacial may arise from a uniform increase in deposition of far-field dust from Arabian and Persian Gulf regions. However, the spatial pattern of ε Nd variation between LGM and late Holocene also suggests a shift from modern dominance of nonradiogenic Nd sources from the Ganges–Brahmaputra basin to LGM dominance of more radiogenic Nd sources from Arakan coastal rivers. Over the last 195 ky at 15°N, the most radiogenic ε Nd values of − 7 occur at glacial maxima and the most nonradiogenic values of − 11 occur during interglacials. ε Nd values are highly correlated with glacial interglacial variations in planktonic foraminiferal δ 18O. In this record, shifts in river sources from the more northerly Ganges–Brahmaputra watershed to the more southerly Arakan coastal river systems respond dominantly to Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) movement driven by Northern Hemisphere cooling during 100 ky glacial/interglacial cycles, with a small component of variation on precessional timescales. The nonlinear correlation of ε Nd with ice volume suggests that ITCZ movement responds to aerial coverage of ice sheets and snow rather than to ice thickness and volume. These data add support to recent general circulation models of ITCZ response to Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, which simulate decreased glacial precipitation in the Ganges–Brahmaputra basin and increased glacial precipitation in the southern Arakan coastal basin.

Symmetry and Asymmetry of the Asian and Australian Summer Monsoons

The rainfalls associated with the Asian summer monsoon have significant correlation with succeeding Aus- tralian summer monsoon rainfalls. This is partly due to the typical life cycle of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase locked with the annual cycle within an Asian monsoon year (May-April). This feature is referred to as the symmetric behavior of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. However, preceding Australian summer monsoon rainfalls have no significant impact on succeeding Asian summer monsoon rainfalls. Thus, there is a one-way (asymmetric) relationship between the two monsoons and a communication gapexists in boreal spring prior to the onset of the Asian summer monsoon. The annual cycles of precipitation associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Indonesia sector (908-1208E) that links the two monsoon regions are compared. The continuous propagation of the ITCZ from the Asian to the Australian summer monsoon regions in Northern Hemisphere (NH) fall provides a one-way link between them. However, the SST anomaly shows a sudden change of sign in November, suggesting that the anomaly is mainly a response to the ITCZ movement rather than its cause. From January to May, the ITCZ is confined at the latitudes south of 58N due to the subsidence in oceanic regions adjacent to the southern coast of Asia. This subsidence prevents the ITCZ from propagating northward until the abrupt onset of the Asian summer monsoon with the reversal of meridional temperature gradient. The discontinuity of the ITCZ movement and the seasonal heating over the Asian continent result in the communication gap in NH spring.

Warm water formation and escape in the upper tropical Atlantic Ocean: 2. A numerical model study

We seek the simplest mass and heat balance scenario within the upper tropical Atlantic Ocean using a 2.5‐layer numerical model, with the help of a newly suggested entrainment formula. The model ocean is driven by the seasonal wind and heat flux associated with the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The entrainment rate is scaled by the product of wind stress and shear at the bottom of the mixed layer. On an annual average, the northward transport of the tropical warm water is about 11 Sv, with roughly 10 Sv associated with entrainment of upper thermocline water. Out of the total 10 Sv of the needed upper thermocline water, 9 Sv enters the equatorial cell from the South Atlantic. The seasonal response to the ITCZ movement is most striking in the entrainment rate and the northward warm water escape rate. The entrainment is significant during May/December and ceases between January and March. The locally forced equilibrium response between the interface shear and the zonal wind stress east of 30°W appears to be responsible for this cycle. The warm water escape toward the North Atlantic takes place mainly from October to June and nearly stops during July/September. As a result of seasonal variations of the two key processes, namely, the entrainment and the northward warm water escape, the tropical warm water pool stores heat during May/October and lets heat escape in November/April.

Weather, host and vector--their interplay in the spread of insect-borne animal virus diseases.

The spread of insect-borne animal virus diseases is influenced by a number of factors. Hosts migrate, move or are conveyed over long distances: vectors are carried on the wind for varying distances in search of hosts and breeding sites; weather and climate affect hosts and vectors through temperature, moisture and wind. As parasites of host and vector, viruses are carried by animals, birds and insects, and their spread can be correlated with the migration of hosts and the carriage of vectors on winds associated with the movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and warm winds to the north and south of the limits of the ITCZ. The virus is often transmitted from a local cycle to a migratory cycle and back again.Examples of insect-borne virus diseases and their spread are analysed. Japanese, Murray Valley, Western equine, Eastern equine and St Louis encephalitis represent viruses transmitted by mosquito-bird or pig cycles.THE AREAS EXPERIENCING INFECTION WITH THESE VIRUSES CAN BE DIVIDED INTO A NUMBER OF ZONES: A, B, C, D, E and F. In zone A there is a continuous cycle of virus in host and vector throughout the year; in zone B, there is an upsurge in the cycle during the wet season, but the cycle continues during the dry season; there is movement of infected vectors between and within zones A and B on the ITCZ and the virus is introduced to zone C by infected vectors on warm winds; persistence may occur in zone C if conditions are right. In zone D, virus is introduced each year by infected vectors on warm winds and the arrival of the virus coincides with the presence of susceptible nestling birds and susceptible piglets. The disappearance of virus occurs at the time when migrating mosquitoes and birds are returning to warmer climates. The virus is introduced to zone E only on occasions every 5-10 years when conditions are suitable. Infected hosts introduced to zone F do not lead to circulation of virus, since the climate is unsuitable for vectors. Zones A, B and C correspond to endemic and zones D and E to epidemic conditions.Similar zones can be recognized for African horse sickness, bluetongue, Ibaraki disease and bovine ephemeral fever - examples of diseases transmitted in a midge-mammal cycle. In zones A and B viruses are transported by infected midges carried on the wind in association with the movement of ITCZ and undergo cycles in young animals. In these zones and in zone C there is a continual movement of midges on the warm wind between one area and another, colonizing new sites or reinforcing populations of midges already present. Virus is introduced at times into fringe areas (zones D and E) and, as there is little resistance in the host, gives rise to clinical signs of disease. In some areas there is persistence during adverse conditions; in others, the virus is carried back to the endemic zones by infected midges or vectors.Examples of viruses maintained in a mosquito/biting fly-mammal cycle are Venezuelan equine encephalitis and vesicular stomatitis. These viruses enter a migratory cycle from a local cycle and the vectors in the migratory cycle are carried over long distances on the wind. Further examples of virus spread by movement of vectors include West Nile, Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, epizootic haemorrhagic disease of deer and Akabane viruses.In devising means of control it is essential to decide the relationship of host, vector and virus and the nature of the zone in which the area to be controlled lies. Because of the continual risk of reintroduction of infected vectors, it is preferable to protect the host by dipping, spraying or by vaccination rather than attempting to eliminate the local population of insects.