Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption Research Articles

Loss Aversion and the Asymmetric Transmission of Monetary Policy

There is widespread evidence that monetary policy exerts asymmetric effects on output over contractions and expansions in economic activity, while price responses display no sizeable asymmetry. To rationalize these facts we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where households' ’utility depends on consumption deviations from a reference level below which loss aversion is displayed. In line with the prospect theory pioneered by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), losses in consumption loom larger than gains. State-dependent degrees of real rigidity and elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption generate competing effects on output and infl‡ation. The resulting state-dependent trade-off between output and infl‡ation stabilization recommends stronger policy activism towards in‡flation during expansions.

Poverty, voracity, and growth

This article investigates economic performance when enforceable property rights are missing and basic needs matter for consumption. It suggests a new view of the so-called voracity effect according to which windfall gains in productivity induce behavior that leads to lower economic growth. Taking into account that the rate of intertemporal substitution in consumption depends on the level of consumption, it is shown that “voracious behavior” is situation-specific. It occurs when an economy is in decline and sufficiently close to stagnation.

Time-Varying Returns, Intertemporal Substitution and Cyclical Variation in Consumption

This paper studies the importance of intertemporal substitution in consumption for the cyclical co-movement of consumption, net worth and income. We can largely explain the empirical hump-shaped consumption response to a transitory wealth increase by allowing for time-varying returns in an otherwise standard Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) model. At the net worth peak, households bring consumption forward in anticipation of low returns on saving. The PIH model fully explains the empirical response when households initially expect the net worth shock to be permanent, but gradually learn that it is in fact transitory.

Time-Varying Returns, Intertemporal Substitution and Cyclical Variation in Consumption

This paper studies the importance of intertemporal substitution in consumption for the cyclical co-movement of consumption, net worth and income. We can largely explain the empirical hump-shaped consumption response to a transitory wealth increase by allowing for time-varying returns in an otherwise standard Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) model. At the net worth peak, households bring consumption forward in anticipation of low returns on saving. The PIH model fully explains the empirical response when households initially expect the net worth shock to be permanent, but gradually learn that it is in fact transitory.

Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption: Empirical Evidence from a Natural Experiment

This paper estimates the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (sigma). We exploit a natural experiment provided by a change in the Indian banking legislation which authorized all the deposit collecting institutions to offer a higher interest rate on deposits to citizens above 60 years of age. Using a difference in difference approach we compare the total consumption expenditure of households whose oldest living member is 60 or 61 years old with households whose oldest living member is 59 or 58 years old, before and after the policy change. We find the estimate of sigma to be equal to approx 2.2.

Local and global indeterminacy in two-sector models of endogenous growth

We consider a two-sector endogenous growth model where the productions of the final good and human capital require economy-wide external effects. Assuming constant returns to scale at the private and social levels, we show that local and global indeterminacy of equilibrium paths are compatible with any values for the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and any sign for the capital intensity difference across the two sectors. We also show that for any value of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption, poverty traps may occur when the final good sector is capital intensive in human capital.

Indeterminacy and expectation-driven fluctuations with non-separable preferences

We consider a continuous-time two-sector infinite-horizon model with sector-specific externalities, endogenous labor and a concave homogeneous non-separable utility function. We show that local indeterminacy arises with a low elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption provided the wage elasticity of the labor supply and the elasticity of substitution between consumption and leisure are low enough. Such a result cannot hold with additively separable preferences for which local indeterminacy requires a large enough elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption.

Relative government size in globalization and its welfare implications

As globalization spreads across the world, countries are experiencing growing competitive pressure in many fields. Since the role of government is needed to change in this global era, the so-called government-size debate has become fierce. This article provides a measure of relative government size in globalization, and clarifies the welfare effect of relative government size in globalization applying a simplified dynamic utility theoretical approach. The main finding is that there is no systematic relationship between relative government size and relative welfare in globalization; such relation depends on behavioural parameters such as the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of consumption and the disutility of labour. This result suggests that finding prerequisites for government consumption to play a welfare-improving role in globalization is more beneficial than the government-size debate.

On the Ramsey equilibrium with heterogeneous consumers and endogenous labor supply

In this paper, we address the stability issue, stressing the role of labor supply, in a Ramsey model with heterogeneous households subject to borrowing constraints. Making labor supply endogenous leads us to prove the existence of two kinds of steady state: the one where everybody supplies labor, the other where only the most patient agent refrains from working. Going beyond models with inelastic labor supply, we show how preferences of impatient agents affect the saddle-path stability of each type of steady state and the occurrence of endogenous cycles. When their elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption exceeds one, instability and cycles are less likely, requiring lower degrees of capital-labor substitution. Conversely, elasticity values below one promote the emergence of fluctuations. We end the paper by showing the existence of the intertemporal equilibrium under market incompleteness, using a local approach based on the first-order conditions.

Reference-Dependent Preferences and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

This paper proposes a novel explanation of the vast empirical evidence showing that output and prices react asymmetrically to monetary policy innovations over contractions and expansions in the business cycle. We use VAR techniques to show that monetary policy exerts stronger effects on the U.S. GDP during contractionary phases, as compared to expansionary ones. As to prices, their response is not statistically different across different cyclical stages. We show that these facts are consistent with a New Neoclassical Synthesis model based on the assumption that households. utility partly depends on deviations of their consumption from a reference level below which aversion to loss is displayed. In line with the theory developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), losses in consumption utility loom larger than gains. This implies state-dependent degrees of real rigidity and elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption that generate competing effects on the responses of output and inflation following a monetary innovation. The key predictions of the model are in line with the data. We then explore the state-dependent trade-o¤ between inflation and output stabilization that naturally arises in this context. Greater elasticity of inflation to real activity during expansionary stages of the cycle promotes a stronger degree of policy activism in the response to the expected rate of inflation under discretion, compared to what is otherwise prescribed during contractions.

On efficiency and local uniqueness in two-sector OLG economies

We consider a two-sector overlapping generations model with homothetic preferences. Under standard conditions on technologies, upon large enough values for the share of first period consumption over the wage income, we prove that the dynamic efficiency and local uniqueness of the competitive equilibrium hold. On the contrary, for lower values of the share of first period consumption over the wage income which imply dynamic inefficiency of the steady state, local indeterminacy arises when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is large enough.

Indeterminacy and business-cycle fluctuations in a two-sector monetary economy with externalities

We consider a two-sector economy with money-in-the-utility-function and sector-specific externalities. We provide conditions on technologies leading to the existence of local indeterminacy for any value of the interest rate elasticity of money demand, provided the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is large enough. Moreover, we show that the occurrence of multiple equilibria is intimately linked with the existence of a flip bifurcation and period-two cycles.

Optimal Tax Policy, Market Imperfections, and Environmental Externalities in a Dynamic Optimizing Macro Model

AbstractThis paper develops a dynamic real business cycle model that highlights pollution externalities (on welfare and production) and market imperfections and uses it to determine the socially optimal tax policy that encompasses labor income, capital income, and emission taxes. We show that the optimal tax on capital and labor income only addresses the production inefficiency (and is time‐invariant), while the tax on the environmental externalities affects both the production inefficiency and the environmental spillovers (and is time‐varying). More interestingly, the socially optimal emission tax will be characterized by a Keynesian‐like stabilizer that is designed to mitigate business cycle fluctuations, i.e., that will stimulate the economy with a lower emission tax during recessions. In a positive analysis, we show that the beneficial effects arising from pollution taxation will become larger the greater is the degree of the firms’ monopoly power. In addition, a triple dividend in terms of improving environmental quality and increasing employment and firms’ profit can be simultaneously realized if the environmental production externality is more significant and if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is relatively small.

Monetary Policy Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

The effects of monetary policy shocks on the equity premium and the cross-section of stock returns are analyzed in general equilibrium. Policy shocks affect real stock returns as a result of nominal product price rigidities. Two opposite effects determine the impact of policy shocks on stock returns. A contractionary shock increases the marginal utility of consumption, reduces aggregate output, and increases production markups. The output reduction requires a positive premium in expected returns. The markup increase acts as a consumption hedge and involves a negative premium. Low elasticities of intertemporal substitution of consumption and labor amplify the markup effect and can generate a negative net effect on the equity premium. In the cross-section, a contractionary shock reduces the relative output and expands the relative markup of a more rigid price industry with respect to a more flexible price industry. If the relative markup expansion dominates the relative output decline, the expected stock return of the more flexible price industry is higher than that of the more rigid price one. As the responsiveness of the policy to economic conditions increases, the effects of policy shocks on the equity premium and the cross-section decline. In addition, the policy-induced markup variation generates time variation in expected returns.

Endogenous Income Taxes and Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models: When Diamond Meets Ramsey Again

This paper introduces fiscal increasing returns, through endogenous labor income tax rates as in Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (1997), into the overlapping generations model with endogenous labor, consumption in both periods of life and homothetic preferences (e.g., Lloyd-Braga, Nourry and Venditti, 2007). We show that under numerical calibrations of the parameters, local indeterminacy can occur for distortionary tax rates that are empirically plausible for the U.S. economy, provided that the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and the wage elasticity of the labor supply are large enough, and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is slightly greater than unity. These indeterminacy conditions are similar to those obtained within infinite horizon models and from this point of view, Diamond meets Ramsey again.

A Parsimonious Macroeconomic Model for Asset Pricing

I study asset prices in a two-agent macroeconomic model with two key features: limited stock market participation and heterogeneity in the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS). The model is consistent with some prominent features of asset prices, such as a high equity premium, relatively smooth interest rates, procyclical stock prices, and countercyclical variation in the equity premium, its volatility, and in the Sharpe ratio. In this model, the risk-free asset market plays a central role by allowing non-stockholders (with low EIS) to smooth the fluctuations in their labor income. This process concentrates non-stockholders' labor income risk among a small group of stockholders, who then demand a high premium for bearing the aggregate equity risk. Furthermore, this mechanism is consistent with the very small share of aggregate wealth held by non-stockholders in the U.S. data, which has proved problematic for previous models with limited participation. I show that this large wealth inequality is also important for the model's ability to generate a countercyclical equity premium. When it comes to business cycle performance, the model's progress has been more limited: consumption is still too volatile compared to the data, whereas investment is still too smooth. These are important areas for potential improvement in this framework.

Intertemporal substitution in consumption, labor supply elasticity and sunspot fluctuations in continuous‐time models

The aim of this paper is to discuss the roles of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the elasticity of the labor supply on the local determinacy properties of the steady state in a two‐sector economy with constant elasticity of substitution technologies and sector‐specific externalities. Our main results provide necessary and sufficient conditions for local indeterminacy. First, we show that the consumption good sector needs to be capital intensive at the private level and labor intensive at the social level. Second, we prove that under this capital intensity configuration, the existence of sunspot fluctuations is obtained if and only if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is large enough but the elasticity of the labor supply is low enough. In particular, we will show on the one hand that when the labor supply is infinitely elastic, the steady state is always saddle‐point stable, and on the other hand that when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is infinite, labor does not have any influence on the local stability properties of the equilibrium path.

Dynamic consumption and asset allocation with derivative securities

This paper provides a model in which a long-term investor chooses consumption and optimal dynamic asset allocation, including a riskless bond, risky stock, and derivatives on the stock, when there is predictable variation in return volatility. We maximize a more general recursive utility function defined over intermediate consumption rather than terminal wealth in order to reflect the realistic problem facing an investor who is saving for the future. The paper obtains a solution to this problem which is exact for investors with unit elasticity of intertemporal substitution of consumption, and approximate otherwise. The optimal log consumption–wealth ratio is a function of stochastic volatility, and the consumption–wealth ratio is an increasing function of volatility for investors whose elasticity of intertemporal substitution of consumption is smaller than one, while it is a decreasing function of volatility for investors whose elasticity of intertemporal substitution of consumption is larger than one. Derivative securities are a significant tool for expanding investors’ dimension of risk-and-return tradeoffs, being a vehicle for the additional risk factor of stochastic volatility in the stock market. Non-myopic investors can utilize derivative securities, which provide access to volatility risk, to capitalize upon the time-varying nature of their opportunity set.

Overconfidence in Financial Markets and Consumption Over the Life Cycle

Overconfidence is a widely documented phenomenon. Empirical evidence reveal two types of overconfidence in financial markets: investors both overestimate the average rate of return to their assets and underestimate uncertainty associated with the return. This paper explores implications of overconfidence in financial markets for consumption over the life cycle. The authors obtain a closed-form solution to the time-inconsistent problem facing an overconfident investor/consumer who has a CRRA utility function. They use this solution to show that overestimation of the mean return gives rise to a hump in consumption during the work life if and only if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is less than unit. They find that underestimation of uncertainty has little effect on the long-run average behavior of consumption over the work life. Their calibrated model produces a hump-shaped work-life consumption profile with both the age and the amplitude of peak consumption consistent with empirical observations.

Intertemporal Effects of Consumption and Their Implications for Demand Elasticity Estimates

Consumption of a good typically diminishes the marginal utility of consuming more, but for how long? This paper adapts a model of consumption capital to allow consumption to have a lasting effect that diminishes the marginal utility of future consumption. Estimates of the model find that it takes the 25th, median and 75th percentile of consumers 19, 32 and 43 days for their marginal utilities to return to pre-consumption levels, and they are forward-looking with respect to these effects. This generates intertemporal substitution of consumption that leads to an overestimate of the own-price elasticity of demand of ten percent when it is estimated using temporary price changes. In addition to these implications consumption effects share with those of durable and storable goods, consumption effects also raise concerns for capacity constrained industries because the timing of consumption affects capacity utilization. In the empirical application in this paper, price variation in one time period generates substantial changes in capacity utilization in that period, but minimal changes in other periods because the intertemporal substitution is spread over many time periods.