Intertemporal Consumption Research Articles

On discounting and voting in a simple growth model

In dynamic resource allocation models, the non-existence of voting equilibria is a generic phenomenon due to the multi-dimensionality of the choice space even if agents are heterogeneous only in their discount factors. Nevertheless, at each point in time there may exist a “median voter” whose preferred instantaneous consumption rate is supported by a majority of agents. Based on this observation, we propose an institutional setup (“intertemporal majority voting”) in a Ramsey-type growth model with common consumption and heterogeneous agents, and show that it provides a microfoundation of the choice of the optimal consumption stream of the “median” agent. While the corresponding intertemporal consumption stream is in general not a Condorcet winner among all feasible paths, its induced instantaneous consumption rates receive a majority at each point in time in the proposed intertemporal majority voting procedure. We also provide a characterization of stationary voting equilibria in the case where agents may differ not only in their time preferences, but also in their felicity functions.

Diarrhées chroniques du nourrisson et de l’enfant

This paper investigates the stationarity behavior of the ex-post real interest rates (RIRs) for 12 Asian countries. Formal tests conducted indicate that high persistence is an intrinsic characteristic in the majority of the RIRs. We consider local-persistent model to assess the degree of persistence in these series. The findings from this devise reveal that RIRs are persistent, but are characterized by a mean-reverting process. The consistency of the persistence comparable amongst the series is confirmed after accounting for the volatility of the consumption growth. Applying a test proposed by Leybourne et al. (2007a) that allows for long memory dynamics, we reconfirm the characteristic of the series. Building on previous studies, this paper provides favorable support for the long-run Fisher hypothesis and help to solve an intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle across the emerging and advanced countries. Finally, the results for the G-7 countries are presented for comparison.

A Comprehensive Approach to Revealed Preference Theory

We develop a version of Afriat's theorem that is applicable in a variety of choice environments beyond the setting of classical consumer theory. This allows us to devise tests for rationalizability in environments where the set of alternatives is not the positive orthant of a Euclidean space and where the rationalizing utility function is required to satisfy properties appropriate to that environment. We show that our results are applicable, amongst others, to choice data on lotteries, contingent consumption, and intertemporal consumption. (JEL D11, D81)

Low Interest Rates and Building Societies — A Judgment of the Federal High Court of Justice

At the end of February 2017 the Federal High Court of Justice rules that building societies are allowed to terminate old contracts ahead of schedule. A lot of old contracts are problematic in the viewpoint of building societies due to high deposit interest rates. High deposit interest rates are dangerous for building societies in times of low interest rates, especially if low interest rates are long-lasting. The Federal High Court of Justice follows the opinion of the building societies that during saving periods, building societies can be seen as borrowers, and borrowers have the (exceptional) right to terminate contracts after ten years, which is established in the German Civil Law. A microeconomic intertemporal consumption model calculates this as an overreaction byf the Court: Building societies should only be allowed to reduce deposit interest rate to be compensated for non existing loan contracts.

Dynamic Quantile Models of Rational Behavior

This paper develops a dynamic model of rational behavior under uncertainty, in which the agent maximizes the stream of future τ-quantile utilities, for τ ∈ (0, 1). That is, the agent has a quantile utility preference instead of the standard expected utility. Quantile preferences have useful advantages, including the ability to capture heterogeneity and allowing the separation between risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Although quantiles do not share some of the helpful properties of expectations, such as linearity and the law of iterated expectations, we are able to establish all the standard results in dynamic models. Namely, we show that the quantile preferences are dynamically consistent, the corresponding dynamic problem yields a value function, via a fixed point argument, this value function is concave and differentiable, and the principle of optimality holds. Additionally, we derive the corresponding Euler equation, which is well suited for using well-known quantile regression methods for estimating and testing the economic model. In this way, the parameters of the model can be interpreted as structural objects. Therefore, the proposed methods provide microeconomic foundations for quantile regression methods. To illustrate the developments, we construct an intertemporal consumption model and estimate the discount factor and elasticity of intertemporal substitution parameters across the quantiles. The results provide evidence of heterogeneity in these parameters.

On discounting and voting in a simple growth model

In dynamic resource allocation models, the non-existence of voting equilibria is a generic phenomenon due to the multi-dimensionality of the choice space even if agents are heterogeneous only in their discount factors. Nevertheless, at each point in time there may exist a “median voter” whose preferred instantaneous consumption rate is supported by a majority of agents. Based on this observation, we propose an institutional setup (“intertemporal majority voting”) in a Ramsey-type growth model with common consumption and heterogeneous agents, and show that it provides a microfoundation of the choice of the optimal consumption stream of the “median” agent. While the corresponding intertemporal consumption stream is in general not a Condorcet winner among all feasible paths, its induced instantaneous consumption rates receive a majority at each point in time in the proposed intertemporal majority voting procedure. We also provide a characterization of stationary voting equilibria in the case where agents may differ not only in their time preferences, but also in their felicity functions.

Optimal self-protection in two periods: On the role of endogenous saving

Self-protection is a costly investment to reduce the probability of loss. This paper studies optimal self-protection in a two-period model with endogenous saving. In a setting with a binary loss we show that prudence is negatively associated with the optimal level of self-protection, consistent with results obtained in single-period models. We provide intuition for this finding with the help of a recent approach based on stochastic dominance. Furthermore, we determine the effect of interest rate risk on optimal self-protection and study a model in which a decision-maker engages in advance effort to increase the probability of facing a better risky situation. All our results suggest that the understanding of advance self-protection crucially hinges on whether the decision-maker also uses saving to optimize intertemporal consumption utility. If so, the fact that self-protection expenditures are upfront turns out to be irrelevant.

Macroeconomic Dynamics in Korea during and after the Global Financial Crisis: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model, including a financial accelerator and the search and matching framework in labor markets, for the Korean economy, using the Bayesian technique. The estimated model shows that the recent sluggishness in GDP growth can be explained by slow technology growth, and the decline in CPI inflation is affected by a falling markup in domestic homogeneous goods production and a negative intertemporal consumption preference. Although wages, unemployment, and total labor hours are influenced by various factors, households' weak bargaining power causes a slow recovery in wages, while pushing the unemployment rate down. There was also a spillover from non-big-5 to big-5 firms during the global financial crisis, while monetary and fiscal policy has been mostly conservative in the post-crisis period.

On the optimal accumulation of renewable energy generation capacity

As fossil fuels are finite and responsible for environmental problems, renewables have been promoted in recent decades. To study the optimal accumulation of a generation capacity for renewable energy (backstop) and the trade-off between capital investments, backstop capacity investments and consumption, we develop a capital-energy economy with exhaustible fossil fuels. It turns out that optimal economic evolution and, therefore, the steady-state levels of capital, backstop capacity, and consumption depend on the capital endowment and the time preference rate. If the latter is low and the former is high, an intertemporal consumption trade-off renders the accumulation of an excess capacity optimal. In contrast, given a low capital endowment and a high time preference rate, the trade-off is not beneficial, so that capacity investments are nil for all points of time.

A Fisherian Approach to the Dividend Puzzle: Taxes, Consumption, and Risk Diversification

This paper presents an alternative theory explaining why firms adopt dividend policies of various kinds at intermediate levels. We extend the dividend clientele model from a traditional corner-solution framework to an interior-solution framework. For some investors, intertemporal double taxation and transaction costs produce a V-shaped function that is inflected at the point where the dividend payment just satisfies the investor's current liquidity needs. Because, generally speaking, clientele effects and risk diversification are not completely compatible, a firm's dividend pattern is expected to be consistent with the median shareholder's intertemporal consumption allocation when consumption preferences dominate tax preferences for majority shareholders.

Euler equation estimation: Children and credit constraints

Conventional estimators based on the consumption Euler equation, intensively used in studies of intertemporal consumption behavior, produce biased estimates of the effect of children on the marginal utility of consumption if consumers face credit constraints. As a more constructive contribution, I propose a tractable approach to obtaining bounds on the effect of children on the marginal utility of consumption. I estimate these bounds using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and find that conventional estimators yield point estimates that are above the upper bound. Children might, thus, not increase the marginal utility of consumption as much as previously assumed. Consumption Euler equation estimation credit constraints children demographics life cycle bounds D12 D14 D91

Momentum in strategic asset allocation

This paper explores a continuous-time intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem for an infinite horizon investor with recursive utility defined over consumption. The investor who tries to exploit momentum is assumed to have access to a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose return exhibits short run momentum. We derive an exact explicit solution and an approximate analytical solution to the dynamic asset allocation problem. We find that the optimal portfolio demand for stocks contains two components: the “momentum-adjusted” myopic demand and the intertemporal hedging demand. When the model is calibrated to Chinese stock market data, it implies that intertemporal hedging demand motives greatly decrease the portfolio demand for stocks by investors whose risk aversion coefficients exceed one when the latest levels of stock returns are non-negative or moderate negative. In addition, hedging motives increase the optimal portfolio when they are sufficiently negative. Also, we find that risk aversion is the main preference parameter in determining portfolio choice rather than the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.

Inheritance VS Intertemporal Consumption

There is a difference between the final goal of conventional economics and Islamic economics. This difference is about intertemporal consumption. In conventional economics, every human being trying to meet the needs through consumption activities. It is known as the term “intertemporal consumption”. Intertemporal consumption is the consumption activities which are carried out in two periods, both present and future. Income (Y) obtained by a person is the sum of consumption (C) and savings (S) which is written in a mathematical function Y = C + S. However, in Islamic economics is known the term ”inheritance” which is the income of someone unused until someone dies thus distributed to the heirs. Thus, a person's income in Islamic economics is not just an accumulation of consumption (present and future) and savings, but also inheritance which is an instrument of wealth distribution to the heirs after death. This a literature study. And this research tries to explain the difference between inheritance as part of intertemporal consumption in Islamic economics perspective and intertemporal consumption in conventional economics perspective. From this research about inheritance and intertemporal consumption, we will know more clearly about the fundamental difference from conventional economics and Islamic economics. Keywords : Inheritance, Intertemporal Consumption, Islamic Economics, Conventional Economics

CREDIT MARKETS AND INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGY UNDER UNCERTAINTY

The present study examines the problem facing a resource-importing economy seeking to achieve energy independence by developing a renewable substitute. The invention of the substitute is assumed to follow a stochastic process that can be influenced by investment in energy research and development. I analyze the optimal investment strategy under alternative assumptions with respect to the economy's access to international financial markets, the terms on which credit is available, and the country's degree of dependence on resource imports. It is found that, in general, having access to capital markets does not necessarily lead to a higher investment rate. However, in the empirically relevant range of elasticity of intertemporal consumption substitution, the economy with access to credit invests more than under financial autarky. A higher degree of dependence on resource imports implies a lower optimal investment. Arrival of the substitute does not necessarily cause an immediate improvement in the net foreign asset position but may in fact cause its further deterioration.

Informed Trading and Intertemporal Substitution: The Limits of the No-Trade Theorem

I examine the conditions for the no-trade theorem to hold in multiperiod consumption settings and show it no longer holds in many reasonable scenarios. In situations where agents have different concerns for intertemporal substitution, information-based trade can be mutually acceptable because it enables agents to readjust their consumption profiles based on future consumption shocks. I show that the existing literature that finds no-trade results in various multiperiod consumption settings crucially depends on specific preference assumptions that lead to risk aversion dominating concerns for intertemporal substitution. The no-trade theorem fails to hold when a wider range of utility functions with a more important role for intertemporal substitution are considered. Intertemporal substitution bridges information-based trading and consumption-based asset pricing. Consumption-based asset pricing models are natural candidates to analyze information-based trading, and informationbased trading affects the volatility of individual consumption processes. Quantitative analysis demonstrates that besides asset pricing implications, information-based trading related to intertemporal consumption smoothing can also explain a significant part of the trading volume observed in financial markets.

Macroeconomic Dynamics in Korea During and after Global Financial Crisis: A Bayesian DSGE Approach

We estimate a medium-scale DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model, including a financial accelerator and the search and matching framework in labor markets, for the Korean economy using the Bayesian technique. The estimated model provides the following findings. The recent sluggishness in GDP growth can be explained by slow technology growth, while decline in CPI inflation is affected by falling markup in domestic homogenous goods production and negative intertemporal consumption preference. While wage, unemployment and total labor hours are influenced by various factors, households’ weak bargaining power causes slow wage recovery while pushing the unemployment rate down. There was a spillover from non-big-5 to big-5 firms during the financial crisis. Monetary and fiscal policy has been mostly conservative in the post-crisis period.

Consumption, unemployment and the Great Recession

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test whether households with members that experience job loss shocks are able to protect their previous level of consumption. The paper also tests whether consumption protection is affected when spells persist through time. Design/methodology/approach – The paper estimates an intertemporal consumption model, where households try to smooth their marginal utility over time. For that purpose it analyses Spanish household budget surveys that span a long period, 1999-2012, including the Great Recession. Unlike most consumption datasets, this microdata is designed as a panel and provides detailed information for all consumption categories as well as household members’ labour status. Findings – The paper finds that consumption smoothing is dependent on the household member facing the unemployment transition. In particular, only main breadwinner’s unemployment transitions affects consumption smoothing. It also shows that the consumption drop persists beyond the period of the job loss for ongoing spells, although it follows a decreasing pattern. Finally, the estimation results are stable over the business cycle. Practical implications – The results suggest that Spanish households are not capable of fully insuring against main breadwinner’s unemployment shocks. Further, the results show that this effect remains up to two years for ongoing unemployment spells. Thus these results highlight a welfare loss by Spanish households with unemployed members. Originality/value – The paper extends the usual analysis of job loss shocks by the main breadwinner to include the cases of both the spouse and the rest of household members, who tend to account for most unemployment. Further, it tests for unemployment persistence. Finally, it checks the sensitivity of the results to the business cycle, including the Great Recession.

Dynamic consumption and portfolio choice with permanent learning

This paper studies a continuous–time intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem when a long–horizon investor who has recursive preferences cannot exactly observe the expected returns of the risky asset. I contribute to belief–behavior solutions to the explicit log-utility case, and to the approximate unit-risk-aversion case. I show explicitly that her belief behavior depends on the parameters of investment opportunities and investor preferences.

“Relative concerns for consumption at the top”: An intertemporal analysis for the UK

This paper investigates whether the consumption of rich households provides a reference point in the intertemporal consumption choices of non-rich households. Using UK household data on food consumption, we estimate the Euler equation implied by a life-cycle model incorporating relative concerns for the consumption of rich households. According to both our OLS and GMM estimates, for the population of non-rich households as a whole, there is no evidence of such relative concerns. We also examine an alternative model of relative concerns in which households overconsume when exposed to higher reference group consumption, and find correlational evidence that this may be the case for food consumed away from home. Finally, we investigate the presence of heterogeneous relative concerns (across county and household characteristics) in both models, finding evidence of relative concerns (for consumption at the top) in counties with relatively low income inequality. This mechanism seems to operate for food consumed away from home.

Exponential utility maximization for an insurer with time-inconsistent preferences

This paper studies the optimal consumption–investment–reinsurance problem for an insurer with a general discount function and exponential utility function in a non-Markovian model. The appreciation rate and volatility of the stock, the premium rate and volatility of the risk process of the insurer are assumed to be adapted stochastic processes, while the interest rate is assumed to be deterministic. The object is to maximize the utility of intertemporal consumption and terminal wealth. By the method of multi-person differential game, we show that the time-consistent equilibrium strategy and the corresponding equilibrium value function can be characterized by the unique solutions of a BSDE and an integral equation. Under appropriate conditions, we show that this integral equation admits a unique solution. Furthermore, we compare the time-consistent equilibrium strategies with the optimal strategy for exponential discount function, and with the strategies for naive insurers in two special cases.