Interseismic Phase Research Articles

Three-dimensional numerical simulation of the interseismic and coseismic phases associated with the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy)

Although several observations have been reported in the literature before a strong earthquake, their relation with the forthcoming event is often controversial. Since many physical processes and parameters govern the dynamics of preparation, initiation, and occurrence of earthquakes, their understanding is essential for explaining anomalous seismological, geophysical, hydrological and geodetic signals before a strong earthquake that may be considered for seismic monitoring and hazard assessment.In this work, the interseismic and coseismic stress and strain fields associated with the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake are calculated via a 3D numerical model designed to simulate the crustal interseismic loading and the coseismic brittle episodic dislocation along the fault. The model adopts a framework of gravitational and tectonic forces that are compatible with the geodynamics of the Central Apennines region of the Italian territory. The model assumes a brittle upper crust, where the fault has stick-slip behaviour, and a plastic deeper crust, where the fault is in stationary creep.The results indicate that the concurrent action of gravitational and tectonic forces determines steep interseismic stress gradients at the transition between the creeping and locked fault planes that promote the coseismic subsidence of the hanging wall. The interseismic strain above the transition between that locked upper fault and its unlocked lower shear zone develops a dilated volume in the hanging wall and a contracted volume in the footwall. These stress and strain variations are compatible with seismological, geophysical and geodetic anomalies observed before the earthquake, i.e., Vp/Vs anomalies and location of foreshocks. Interseismic stress and strain patterns invert during the coseismic stage. The dilated volume, formed during the interseismic phase, will be contracted at the coseismic stage and, conversely, the footwall volume previously contracted will be expanded.

Source Process of the 24 January 2020 Mw 6.7 East Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey, Earthquake

AbstractThe 24 January 2020 Mw 6.7 earthquake in eastern Turkey was due to the reactivation of the strike-slip faulting between the Arabian and Anatolian plates. To gain insight into the source regime and its relationship with historical earthquakes, we determined the coseismic slip distribution of this event by joint analyses of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and teleseismic observations. Inversion results indicate that the main rupture asperity occurred in the southwest of the epicenter with a maximum slip of ∼1.9 m, showing a bilateral source process with an average rupture velocity of ∼1.6 km/s, and small slip extended to the surface near the epicenter. The estimated seismic moment is 1.4×1019 N·m, associated with a ∼50 km long and ∼15 km wide fault plane. The aftershocks distribution is obviously complementary with the coseismic rupture zone. That is, the majority of aftershocks clustered in the transitional regions from the large to small slip areas. The 2020 earthquake only ruptured part of the locked zone and could increase the seismic activity in the East Anatolian fault zone during the interseismic phase. Two verified seismic gaps remain unbroken and hazardous.

Marine Transform Faults and Fracture Zones: A Joint Perspective Integrating Seismicity, Fluid Flow and Life

Marine transform faults and associated fracture zones (MTFFZs) cover vast stretches of the ocean floor, where they play a key role in plate tectonics, accommodating the lateral movement of tectonic plates and allowing connections between ridges and trenches. Together with the continental counterparts of MTFFZs, these structures also pose a risk to human societies as they can generate high magnitude earthquakes and trigger tsunamis. Historical examples are the Sumatra-Wharton Basin Earthquake in 2012 (M8.6) and the Atlantic Gloria Fault Earthquake in 1941 (M8.4). Earthquakes at MTFFZs furthermore open and sustain pathways for fluid flow triggering reactions with the host rocks that may permanently change the rheological properties of the oceanic lithosphere. In fact, they may act as conduits mediating vertical fluid flow and leading to elemental exchanges between Earth’s mantle and overlying sediments. Chemicals transported upward in MTFFZs include energy substrates, such as H2 and volatile hydrocarbons, which then sustain chemosynthetic, microbial ecosystems at and below the seafloor. Moreover, up- or downwelling of fluids within the complex system of fractures and seismogenic faults along MTFFZs could modify earthquake cycles and/or serve as “detectors” for changes in the stress state during interseismic phases. Despite their likely global importance, the large areas where transform faults and fracture zones occur are still underexplored, as are the coupling mechanisms between seismic activity, fluid flow, and life. This manuscript provides an interdisciplinary review and synthesis of scientific progress at or related to MTFFZs and specifies approaches and strategies to deepen the understanding of processes that trigger, maintain, and control fluid flow at MTFFZs.

Multicycle Dynamics of the Aksay Bend Along the Altyn Tagh Fault in Northwest China: 1. A Simplified Double Bend

AbstractI perform multicycle dynamic simulations of a restraining double bend that is simplified from the Aksay bend along the Altyn Tagh Fault in northwest China. The earthquake cycle includes a coseismic dynamic rupture phase and an interseismic stress loading and relaxation phase. The double bend fault system has two fault strands and each strand comprises a stem segment that strikes parallel to the maximum shear loading direction and a bend segment that deviates from the loading direction. I find that the restraining double bend is an effective barrier to dynamically propagating ruptures over multiple earthquake cycles, with a probability of rupture jumping from one strand to the other varying from 0% to 10%, depending on parameter values of the rate dependence of friction during the dynamic phase and the viscosity for stress relaxation during the interseismic phase. The critical condition for the primary rupture on the first strand to jump onto the second strand is that the preshear stress is close enough to the shear strength over a certain size of the fault patch on the second strand. These results on the simplified double bend provide important insights into rupture behavior of geometrically complex faults over multiple earthquake cycles in general and a reference to explore rupture behavior of the Aksay bend in particular.

Geophysical Signatures of Shear‐Induced Damage and Frictional Processes on Rock Joints

AbstractIn this study, ultrasonic waves recorded during direct shear experiments on rock joints were employed to investigate the shear failure processes. Three types of wave attributes were systematically observed prior to the shear failure of the rock joints: (a) maximum in the amplitude of the transmitted wave, (b) maximum in the dominant frequency of the transmitted wave, and (c) maximum in the velocity of the wave. Different processes occurring during both frictional sliding and stick‐slip oscillations were identified in this study: (a) interseismic phase and (b) preseismic phase. The interseismic phase is associated with elastic loading, very small local slip rate, and increasing ultrasonic transmission along the contact surfaces. The rock joint is considered locked, and the increase in ultrasonic transmission represents an increase in the real (true) area of contact because of interlocking and contact aging. The start of the preseismic phase is marked by the onset of precursors for different regions of the rock joint. Following the interseismic and preseismic phases, coseismic phase occurs. The coseismic phase begins with the reduction in the applied shear stress and is associated with an abrupt increase in the local slip rate. The reductions in transmitted amplitude, wave velocity, and dominant frequency all indicate the preseismic phase when the asperity contacts begin to fail before macroscopic frictional sliding. The observation of the preseismic phase in both the loading phase leading to stable sliding and stick‐slip failure modes suggests that microphysical processes of fault weakening may share key features for these two failure modes.

States of stress and slip partitioning in a continental scale strike-slip duplex: Tectonic and magmatic implications by means of finite element modeling

Orogenic belts at oblique convergent subduction margins accommodate deformation in several trench-parallel domains, one of which is the magmatic arc, commonly regarded as taking up the margin-parallel, strike-slip component. However, the stress state and kinematics of volcanic arcs is more complex than usually recognized, involving first- and second-order faults with distinctive slip senses and mutual interaction. These are usually organized into regional scale strike-slip duplexes, associated with both long-term and short-term heterogeneous deformation and magmatic activity. This is the case of the 1100 km-long Liquiñe–Ofqui Fault System in the Southern Andes, made up of two overlapping margin-parallel master faults joined by several NE-striking second-order faults. We present a finite element model addressing the nature and spatial distribution of stress across and along the volcanic arc in the Southern Andes to understand slip partitioning and the connection between tectonics and magmatism, particularly during the interseismic phase of the subduction earthquake cycle. We correlate the dynamics of the strike-slip duplex with geological, seismic and magma transport evidence documented by previous work, showing consistency between the model and the inferred fault system behavior. Our results show that maximum principal stress orientations are heterogeneously distributed within the continental margin, ranging from 15° to 25° counter-clockwise (with respect to the convergence vector) in the master faults and 10–19° clockwise in the forearc and backarc domains. We calculate the stress tensor ellipticity, indicating simple shearing in the eastern master fault and transpressional stress in the western master fault. Subsidiary faults undergo transtensional-to-extensional stress states. The eastern master fault displays slip rates of 5 to 10 mm/yr, whereas the western and subsidiary faults show slips rates of 1 to 5 mm/yr. Our results endorse that favorably oriented subsidiary faults serve as magma pathways, particularly where they are close to the intersection with a master fault. Also, the slip of a fault segment is enhanced when an adjacent fault kinematics is superimposed on the regional tectonic loading. Hence, finite element models help to understand coupled tectonics and volcanic processes, demonstrating that geological and geophysical observations can be accounted for by a small number of key first order boundary conditions.

Tectonic role of margin-parallel and margin-transverse faults during oblique subduction in the Southern Volcanic Zone of the Andes: Insights from Boundary Element Modeling

Obliquely convergent subduction margins develop trench-parallel faults shaping the regional architecture of orogenic belts and partitioning intra-plate deformation. However, transverse faults also are common along most orogenic belts and have been largely neglected in slip partitioning analysis. Here, we constrain the sense of slip and slip rates of differently oriented faults to assess whether and how transverse faults accommodate plate-margin slip arising from oblique subduction. We implement a forward 3D boundary element method (BEM) model of subduction at the Chilean margin evaluating the elastic response of intra-arc faults during different stages of the Andean subduction seismic cycle (SSC). Our model results show that the margin-parallel, NNE-striking Liquine-Ofqui Fault System (LOFS) accommodates dextral-reverse slip during the interseismic period of the SSC, with oblique slip rates ranging between 1-7 mm/yr. NW-striking faults exhibit sinistral-reverse slip during the interseismic phase of the SSC, displaying a maximum oblique slip of 1.4 mm/yr. ENE-striking faults display dextral strike-slip, with a slip rate of 0.85 mm/yr. During the SSC coseismic phase, all modeled faults switch their kinematics: NE-striking fault become sinistral whereas NW-striking faults are normal-dextral. Because coseismic tensile stress changes on NW faults reach 0.6 MPa at 10-15 km depth, it is likely that they can serve as transient magma pathways during this phase of the SSC. Our model challenges the existing paradigm wherein only margin-parallel faults account for slip partitioning: transverse faults are also capable of accommodating a significant amount of plate-boundary slip arising from oblique convergence.

Locking degree and slip rate deficit distribution on MHT fault before 2015 Nepal Mw 7.9 earthquake

The spatial pattern and rate of strain accumulation on a fault during the pre- and inter-seismic phases are very important for interpreting the mechanism of earthquakes and evaluating seismic potentials. Here we use global positioning system (GPS) data and the block-dislocation model to invert for the locking degree and slip rate deficit of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault in the southern margin of Tibet before the 2015 Mw 7.9 Nepal earthquake. Results show that the locking depth and slip rate deficit increase from the west to the east. Along the western segment of the MHT fault (80°E–84°E), the locking depth is estimated to be 12–17km with a slip rate deficit of 0–5mm/a; along the central Nepal segment (84°E–87°E), the locking depth is 16–21km with a slip rate deficit of 6–10mm/a, whilst along the eastern segment (87°E–90°E), the locking depth increases to 23–26km with a slip rate deficit of 8–13mm/a. The 2015 Nepal earthquake initiated at the boundary between the western and central segments, an area with as where the slip rate deficit varies dramatically from 0 to 9mm/a within 50km resulting in high energy gradients. High strain concentration along the central and eastern segments leads to unilateral propagation of the rupture to the east. Given the paucity of large seismic events over the previous decades and the current high slip rate deficit, seismic hazard on the eastern Nepal segment remains high.

A mixed seismic–aseismic stress release episode in the Andean subduction zone

In subduction zones, stress is released by earthquakes and transient aseismic slip. The latter falls into two categories: slow slip and afterslip. Slow-slip events emerge spontaneously during the interseismic phase, and show a progressive acceleration of slip with a negligible contribution of synchronous tremors or microseismicity to the energy, or moment release1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. In contrast, afterslip occurs immediately after large and moderate earthquakes, decelerates over time, and releases between 20 and 400% of the moment released by the preceding earthquake13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. Here we use seismic and GPS data to identify transient aseismic slip that does not fit into either of these categories. We document a seismic–aseismic slip sequence which occurred at shallow depths along a weakly coupled part of the Andean subduction zone19 in northern Peru and lasted seven months. The sequence generated several moderate earthquakes that together account for about 25% of the total moment released during the full sequence, equivalent to magnitude 6.7. Transient slip immediately followed two of the earthquakes, with slip slowing at a logarithmic rate. Considered separately, the moment released by transient slip following the second earthquake was more than 1,000% of the moment released during the earthquake itself, a value incompatible with classical models of afterslip. Synchronous seismic swarms and aseismic slip may therefore define a stress-release process that is distinct from slow-slip events and afterslip.

Influence of calcite decarbonation on the frictional behavior of carbonate-bearing gouge: Implications for the instability of volcanic flanks and fault slip

The impact of heat, readily provided by magma, circulating hot fluids, or rapid fault slip on carbonate substrata is an important factor in determining the flank stability of volcanoes and the mechanical behavior of faults in areas where carbonate lithologies are prevalent. The mineralogy and mechanical properties of carbonate rocks are demonstrably altered by thermally induced decarbonation. While previous studies have considered the role of decarbonation in bulk strength loss at subvolcanic conditions and dynamic weakening during coseismic fault slip, little is known about the effects of decarbonation on the frictional properties of carbonate rocks during both the nucleation and inter-seismic phases. Here, we present results from experiments performed on a portlandite-rich material, a typical hydrous product of the decarbonation reaction. To evaluate frictional strength, stability, and healing at shallow crustal conditions, we sheared gouge layers of this material under saturated conditions at room temperature and at velocities comparable to those involved in earthquake nucleation. Our data indicate that the reaction of calcite to portlandite results in a distinct change in the mechanical behavior of the gouge. Decarbonated shear zones are (1) frictionally weaker at higher normal stresses, (2) more frictionally unstable, and (3) likely to regain their frictional strength more quickly than unaltered calcite-rich zones. The occurrence of portlandite could be key for interpreting the stability of volcanic flanks that root into carbonate substrata and for seismogenic normal faults located within thick sedimentary sequences, and thus provide a better understanding of the hazards they pose.

Erosion influences the seismicity of active thrust faults.

Assessing seismic hazards remains one of the most challenging scientific issues in Earth sciences. Deep tectonic processes are classically considered as the only persistent mechanism driving the stress loading of active faults over a seismic cycle. Here we show via a mechanical model that erosion also significantly influences the stress loading of thrust faults at the timescale of a seismic cycle. Indeed, erosion rates of about ~0.1-20 mm yr(-1), as documented in Taiwan and in other active compressional orogens, can raise the Coulomb stress by ~0.1-10 bar on the nearby thrust faults over the inter-seismic phase. Mass transfers induced by surface processes in general, during continuous or short-lived and intense events, represent a prominent mechanism for inter-seismic stress loading of faults near the surface. Such stresses are probably sufficient to trigger shallow seismicity or promote the rupture of deep continental earthquakes up to the surface.

Assessment of stress coupling among the inter-, co- and post-seismic phases related to the 2004 M6 Parkfield earthquake

Due to large uncertainties and non-uniqueness in fault slip inversion, the investigation of stress coupling based on the direct comparison of independent slip inversions, for example, between the coseismic slip distribution and the interseismic slip deficit, may lead to ambiguous conclusions. In this study, we therefore adopt the stress-constrained joint inversion in the Bayesian approach of Wang et al., and implement the physical hypothesis of stress coupling as a prior. We test the hypothesis that interseismic locking is coupled with the coseismic rupture, and the early post-seismic deformation is a stress relaxation process in response to the coseismic stress perturbation. We characterize the role of stress coupling in the seismic cycle by evaluating the efficiency of the model to explain the available data. Taking the 2004 M6 Parkfield earthquake as a study case, we find that the stress coupling hypothesis is in agreement with the data. The coseismic rupture zone is found to be strongly locked during the interseismic phase and the post-seismic slip zone is indicated to be weakly creeping. The post-seismic deformation plays an important role to rebuild stress in the coseismic rupture zone. Based on our results for the stress accumulation during both inter- and post-seismic phase in the coseismic rupture zone, together with the coseismic stress drop, we estimate a recurrence time of M6 earthquake in Parkfield around 23-41 yr, suggesting that the duration of 38 yr between the two recent M6 events in Parkfield is not a surprise.

Temporal variation in fault friction and its effects on the slip evolution of a thrust fault over several earthquake cycles

Terra Nova, 24, 357–362, 2012AbstractThe friction coefficient is a key parameter for the slip evolution of faults, but how temporal changes in friction affect fault slip is still poorly known. By using three‐dimensional numerical models with a thrust fault that is alternately locked and released, we show that variations in the friction coefficient affect both coseismic and long‐term fault slip. Decreasing the friction coefficient by 5% while keeping the duration of the interseismic phase constant leads to a four‐fold increase in coseismic slip, whereas a 5% increase nearly suppresses slip. A gradual decrease or increase of friction over several earthquake cycles (1–5% per earthquake) considerably alters the cumulative fault slip. In nature, the slip deficit (surplus) resulting from variations in the friction coefficient would presumably be compensated by a longer (shorter) interseismic phase, but the magnitude of the changes required for compensation render variations of the friction coefficient of >5% unlikely.

Geodetic constraints on San Francisco Bay Area fault slip rates and potential seismogenic asperities on the partially creeping Hayward fault

The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) is sometimes considered unusual among continental faults for exhibiting significant aseismic creep during the interseismic phase of the seismic cycle while also generating sufficient elastic strain to produce major earthquakes. Imaging the spatial variation in interseismic fault creep on the Hayward fault is complicated because of the interseismic strain accumulation associated with nearby faults in the SFBA, where the relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra block is partitioned across closely spaced subparallel faults. To estimate spatially variable creep on the Hayward fault, we interpret geodetic observations with a three‐dimensional kinematically consistent block model of the SFBA fault system. Resolution tests reveal that creep rate variations with a length scale of <15 km are poorly resolved below 7 km depth. In addition, creep at depth may be sensitive to assumptions about the kinematic consistency of fault slip rate models. Differential microplate motions result in a slip rate of 6.7 ± 0.8 mm/yr on the Hayward fault, and we image along‐strike variations in slip deficit rate at ∼15 km length scales shallower than 7 km depth. Similar to previous studies, we identify a strongly coupled asperity with a slip deficit rate of up to 4 mm/yr on the central Hayward fault that is spatially correlated with the mapped surface trace of the 1868MW = 6.9–7.0 Hayward earthquake and adjacent to gabbroic fault surfaces.

Aftershock seismicity of the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake rupture zone

On 27 February 2010 the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in Central Chile ruptured a seismic gap where significant strain had accumulated since 1835. Shortly after the mainshock a dense network of temporary seismic stations was installed along the whole rupture zone in order to capture the aftershock activity. Here, we present the aftershock distribution and first motion polarity focal mechanisms based on automatic detection algorithms and picking engines. By processing the seismic data between 15 March and 30 September 2010 from stations from IRIS, IPGP, GFZ and University of Liverpool we determined 20,205 hypocentres with magnitudes Mw between 1 and 5.5. Seismic activity occurs in six groups: 1.) Normal faulting outer rise events 2.) A shallow group of plate interface seismicity apparent at 25–35km depth and 50–120km distance to the trench with some variations between profiles. Along strike, the aftershocks occur largely within the zone of coseismic slip but extend ~50km further north, and with predominantly shallowly dipping thrust mechanisms. Along dip, the events are either within the zone of coseismic slip, or downdip from it, depending on the coseismic slip model used. 3.) A third band of seismicity is observed further downdip at 40–50km depth and further inland at 150–160km trench perpendicular distance, with mostly shallow dipping (~28°) thrust focal mechanisms indicating rupture of the plate interface significantly downdip of the coseismic rupture, and presumably above the intersection of the continental Moho with the plate interface. 4.) A deep group of intermediate depth events between 80 and 120km depth is present north of 36°S. Within the Maule segment, a large portion of events during the inter-seismic phase originated from this depth range. 5.) The magmatic arc exhibits a small amount of crustal seismicity but does not appear to show significantly enhanced activity after the Mw 8.8 Maule 2010 earthquake. 6.) Pronounced crustal aftershock activity with mainly normal faulting mechanisms is found in the region of Pichilemu (~34.5°S). These crustal events occur in a ~30km wide region with sharp inclined boundaries and oriented oblique to the trench. The best-located events describe a plane dipping to the southwest, consistent with one of the focal planes of the large normal-faulting aftershock (Mw=6.9) on 11 March 2010.

A Deterministic Approach to Earthquake Prediction

The paper aims at giving suggestions for a deterministic approach to investigate possible earthquake prediction and warning. A fundamental contribution can come by observations and physical modeling of earthquake precursors aiming at seeing in perspective the phenomenon earthquake within the framework of a unified theory able to explain the causes of its genesis, and the dynamics, rheology, and microphysics of its preparation, occurrence, postseismic relaxation, and interseismic phases. Studies based on combined ground and space observations of earthquake precursors are essential to address the issue. Unfortunately, up to now, what is lacking is the demonstration of a causal relationship (with explained physical processes and looking for a correlation) between data gathered simultaneously and continuously by space observations and ground-based measurements. In doing this, modern and/or new methods and technologies have to be adopted to try to solve the problem. Coordinated space- and ground-based observations imply available test sites on the Earth surface to correlate ground data, collected by appropriate networks of instruments, with space ones detected on board of Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellites. Moreover, a new strong theoretical scientific effort is necessary to try to understand the physics of the earthquake.

The SISMA prototype system: integrating Geophysical Modeling and Earth Observation for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment

An innovative approach to seismic hazard assessment is illustrated that, based on the available knowledge of the physical properties of the Earth structure and of seismic sources, on geodetic observations, as well as on the geophysical forward modeling, allows for a time-dependent definition of the seismic input. According to the proposed approach, a fully formalized system integrating Earth Observation data and new advanced methods in seismological and geophysical data analysis is currently under development in the framework of the Pilot Project SISMA, funded by the Italian Space Agency. The synergic use of geodetic Earth Observation data (EO) and Geophysical Forward Modeling deformation maps at the national scale complements the space- and time-dependent information provided by real-time monitoring of seismic flow (performed by means of the earthquake prediction algorithms CN and M8S) and permits the identification and routine updating of alerted areas. At the local spatial scale (tens of km) of the seismogenic nodes identified by pattern-recognition analysis, both GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) techniques, coupled with expressly developed models for interseismic phase, allow us to retrieve the deformation style and stress evolution within the seismogenic areas. The displacement fields obtained from EO data provide the input for the geophysical modeling, which eventually permits to indicate whether a specific fault is in a “critical state.” The scenarios of expected ground motion (shakemaps) associated with the alerted areas are then defined by means of full waveforms modeling, based on the possibility to compute synthetic seismograms by the modal summation technique (neo-deterministic hazard assessment). In this way, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion, which refer to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, can be defined both at national and at local scale. The considered integrated approach opens new routes in understanding the dynamics of fault zones as well as in modeling the expected ground motion. The SISMA system, in fact, provides tools for establishing warning criteria based on deterministic and rigorous forward geophysical models and hence allows for a well-controlled real-time prospective testing and validation of the proposed methodology over the Italian territory. The proposed approach complements the traditional probabilistic approach for seismic hazard estimates, since it supplies routinely updated information useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and hence it is particularly relevant to Civil Defense purposes.

Stress modulation on the San Andreas fault by interseismic fault system interactions

During the interseismic phase of the earthquake cycle, between large earthquakes, stress on faults evolves in response to elastic strain accumulation driven by tectonic plate motions. Because earthquake cycle processes induce non-local stress changes, the interseismic stress accumulation rate on one fault is influenced by the behavior of all nearby faults. Using a geodetically constrained block model, we show that the total interseismic elastic strain field generated by fault interactions within Southern California may increase stressing rates on the Mojave and San Bernardino sections of the San Andreas fault within the Big Bend region by as much as 38% relative to estimates from isolated San Andreas models. Assuming steady fault system behavior since the C.E. 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, shear stress accumulated on these sections due only to interaction with faults other than the San Andreas reaches 1 MPa, ∼3 times larger than the coseismic and postseismic stress changes induced by recent Southern California earthquakes. Stress increases along Big Bend sections coincide with the greatest earthquake frequency inferred from a 1500-yr-long paleoseismic record and may affect earthquake recurrence intervals within geometrically complex fault systems, including the sections of the San Andreas fault closest to metropolitan Los Angeles.

First evidences of fast creeping on a long-lasting quiescent earthquake normal-fault in the Mediterranean

SUMMARY A key issue in our understanding of the earthquake cycle and seismic hazard is the behaviour of an active fault during the interseismic phase. Locked and creeping faults represent two end-members of mechanical behaviours that are given two extreme rupturing hazard levels, that is, high and low, respectively. Geophysical and space geodetic analyses are carried out over the Pollino Range, an extensional environment within the Africa–Eurasia plate boundary, to disclose the behaviour of the long-lasting quiescent Castrovillari normal fault. Fault trenching evidenced at least four large earthquakes (6.5–7.0 Mw) in the past and an elapsed time of 1200 yr since the last event. Inversion of Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System over a decade shows fast creeping at all depths of the fault plane. The velocity-strengthening creeping zone reaches maximum rates 20 mm yr −1 against an average rate of about 3–9 mm yr −1 . It limits the southern-weakening locked part of the fault. An essential condition for the generation of a large earthquake on the Castrovillari fault, as has occurred in the past, is a rupture through the velocity-strengthening zone. The Castrovillari fault yields the best evidence for being both a strong and weak fault during its earthquake cycle. Creeping at rates faster than its tectonically driven ones, it must thus consist of a mix of unstable and conditionally stable patches ready to sustain a sizeable earthquake. Quantifying and mapping the slip rate over the fault plane is important because they influence fault moment budget estimate and helps to constrain constitutive laws of fault zones. Aseismic slip also redistributes stress in the crust, thereby affecting the locations of future earthquakes.

Present-day strain distribution across the Minab-Zendan-Palami fault system from dense GPS transects

The Strait of Hormuz area is a transition zone between the continental collision of the Zagros (west) and the subduction of an oceanic part of the Arabian Plate beneath the Makran wedge (east). Geology and recent GPS measurements indicate that about 15 mm yr−1 of relative motion in N10°E direction is accommodated by two major fault systems: (1) the NNW-trending Minab-Zendan-Palami (MZP) fault system that connects the Main Zagros Thrust (MZT) to the inner Makran thrust system and the Frontal subduction thrust and (2) the N-trending Sabzevaran-Kahnuj-Jiroft (SKJ) fault system that bounds the Jazmurian depression to the west. We use dense GPS measurements along four transects across these fault systems in order to determine the strains spatial distribution. The northern GPS transect confirms the total fault slip rates for both fault systems estimated by the tectonic analyses (about 10 and 7.3 mm yr−1 in N10° direction across the MZP and SKJ fault systems, respectively). For both fault systems, the elastic deformation spreads over shear zones that are several tens of kilometres wide. However, transects located close to latitude 27°N reveal a much narrower shear zone (∼10 km) for the MZP fault system. Moreover, we confirm that most of the present-day strain is transferred towards the frontal subduction thrust rather than towards the inner Makran thrusts. In order to complement this new GPS velocity field with spatially dense measurements, we processed a set of ERS radar images by the radar interferometry (InSAR) technique. We used both a ‘stacking’ and a ‘persistant-scatterers’ approach to differentiate the ground deformation signal which spatial gradient is expected to be very low, from the atmospheric signal. Results from these interferograms appear to be relatively in agreement with the GPS-determined strain distribution. Nevertheless, they confirm the absence of any superficial creep behaviour since no sharp discontinuity on interferometric phase can be noted on any interferogram. Finally, we use a purely kinematic ‘block model’ inversion process to calculate slip rates and locking depths for each fault system from our GPS measurements. These models suggest that the relative quiescence over the last 200 yr has certainly produced a slip deficit as high as 2 m. So, we may wonder if the MZP fault system is not late in the interseismic phase of its earthquake cycle.