Interseismic Period Research Articles

Accretionary wedge and oceanic crust thickness effect on surface deformation: Study case the Mentawai segment

Southern Sumatra forearc is classified as a compressional accretionary type. The existence of the accretionary wedge has a significant role in sediment deformation. This sediment deformation may contribute to generating higher tsunami generation. A two-dimensional crustal deformation modeling was performed to analyze the influence of the accretionary wedge. Furthermore, oceanic crust thickness variations are also simulated in this modeling as the incoming plate’s role in surface deformation is poorly understood. The crustal deformation modeling consists of two types of earthquake period: interseismic period and coseismic period. Various geometry features were applied for each earthquake period. The crustal deformation modeling itself is based on the finite element method. The result shows that there are different effects on the geometrical model being used. The pattern and amount of surface deformation also depend on at which the fault is activated. Extended geometry models such as three-dimensional modeling will be required for further study.

Paleoseismology of the 2016 MW 6.1 Petermann earthquake source: Implications for intraplate earthquake behaviour and the geomorphic longevity of bedrock fault scarps in a low strain‐rate cratonic region

AbstractThe 20 May 2016 MW 6.1 Petermann earthquake in central Australia generated a 21 km surface rupture with 0.1 to 1 m vertical displacements across a low‐relief landscape. No paleo‐scarps or potentially analogous topographic features are evident in pre‐earthquake Worldview‐1 and Worldview‐2 satellite data. Two excavations across the surface rupture expose near‐surface fault geometry and mixed aeolian‐sheetwash sediment faulted only in the 2016 earthquake. A 10.6 ± 0.4 ka optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) age of sheetwash sediment provides a minimum estimate for the period of quiescence prior to 2016 rupture. Seven cosmogenic beryllium‐10 (10Be) bedrock erosion rates are derived for samples < 5 km distance from the surface rupture on the hanging‐wall and foot‐wall, and three from samples 19 to 50 km from the surface rupture. No distinction is found between fault proximal rates (1.3 ± 0.1 to 2.6 ± 0.2 m Myr−1) and distal samples (1.4 ± 0.1 to 2.3 ± 0.2 m Myr−1). The thickness of rock fragments (2–5 cm) coseismically displaced in the Petermann earthquake perturbs the steady‐state bedrock erosion rate by only 1 to 3%, less than the erosion rate uncertainty estimated for each sample (7–12%). Using 10Be erosion rates and scarp height measurements we estimate approximately 0.5 to 1 Myr of differential erosion is required to return to pre‐earthquake topography. By inference any pre‐2016 fault‐related topography likely required a similar time for removal. We conclude that the Petermann earthquake was the first on this fault in the last ca. 0.5–1 Myr. Extrapolating single nuclide erosion rates across this timescale introduces large uncertainties, and we cannot resolve whether 2016 represents the first ever surface rupture on this fault, or a > 1 Myr interseismic period. Either option reinforces the importance of including distributed earthquake sources in fault displacement and seismic hazard analyses.

Long-lived shallow slow-slip events on the Sunda megathrust

During most of the time between large earthquakes at tectonic plate boundaries, surface displacement time series are generally observed to be linear. This linear trend is interpreted as a result of steady stress accumulation at frictionally locked asperities on the fault interface. However, due to the short geodetic record, it is still unknown whether all interseismic periods show similar rates, and whether frictionally locked asperities remain stationary. Here we show that two consecutive interseismic periods at Simeulue Island, Indonesia experienced significantly different displacement rates, which cannot be explained by a sudden reorganization of locked and unlocked regions. Rather, these observations necessitate the occurrence of a 32-year slow-slip event on a shallow, frictionally stable area of the megathrust. We develop a self-consistent numerical model of such events driven by pore-fluid migration during the earthquake cycle. The resulting slow-slip events appear as abrupt velocity changes in geodetic time series. Due to their long-lived nature, we may be missing or mis-modelling these transient phenomena in a number of settings globally; we highlight one such ongoing example at Enggano Island, Indonesia. We provide a method for detecting these slow-slip events that will enable a substantial revision to the earthquake and tsunami hazard and risk for populations living close to these faults. A 32-year-long slow-slip event occurred on a shallow part of the Sunda megathrust, perhaps because of stress accumulation after fluid expulsion, according to an analysis of the deformation history of the area and physics-based simulations.

Seismicity in far western Nepal reveals flats and ramps along the Main Himalayan Thrust

SUMMARYUnravelling relations between lateral variations of mid-crustal seismicity and the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) system at depth is a key issue in seismotectonic studies of the Himalayan range. These relations can reveal along strike changes in the behaviour of the fault at depth related to fluids or the local ramp-flat geometry and more generally of the stress build-up along the fault. Some of these variations may control the rupture extension of intermediate, large or great earthquakes, the last of which dates back from 1505 CE in far western Nepal. The region is also associated to lateral spatio-temporal variations of the mid-crustal seismicity monitored by the Regional Seismic Network of Surkhet–Birendranagar. This network was supplemented between 2014 and 2016 by 15 temporary stations deployed above the main seismic clusters giving new potential to regional studies. Both absolute and relative locations together with focal mechanisms are determined to gain insight on the fault behaviour at depth. We find more than 4000 earthquakes within 5 and 20 km-depth clustered in three belts parallel to the front of the Himalayan range. Finest locations reveal close relationships between seismic clusters and fault segments at depth among which mid-crustal ramps and reactivated tectonic slivers. Our results support a geometry of the MHT involving several fault patches at depth separated by ramps and tear faults. This geometry most probably affects the pattern of the coseismic ruptures breaking partially or totally the locked fault zone as well as eventual along strike variations of seismic coupling during interseismic period.

The Role of Fluid Pressure‐Induced Aseismic Slip in Earthquake Cycle Modulation

AbstractThe evolving state of fault stress during and after the perturbation of fluid pressure gives rise to an intriguing interplay of seismic and aseismic slip on the fault. A better understanding of the possible role of fluids in the triggering mechanism of seismicity is pivotal to effective seismic hazard mitigation, particularly in the context of induced seismicity. Through numerical modeling, we investigate the effect of pore pressure perturbations on the spatio‐temporal evolution of fault slip and the modulation of earthquake cycles. Pressure perturbations are imposed at different magnitudes and different times during a selected interseismic period. Results show a wide range of aseismic responses which can lead to both time advancement and delay of subsequent earthquakes. Specifically, even pressure perturbation <5% of the average event stress drop can trigger aseismic slip that leads to considerable time delay in the next earthquake even when perturbation occurs late in the interseismic period. We find that earthquakes that are delayed in time are associated with large aseismic moment release. Our study highlights the importance of close monitoring of aseismic fault slip in regions prone to the influence of pore fluids and provides physical insights into identifying critical aseismic responses associated with certain triggering outcomes.

A Stochastic View of the 2020 Elazığ Mw 6.8 Earthquake (Turkey)

AbstractUntil the Mw 6.8 Elazığ earthquake ruptured the central portion of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF, Turkey) on January 24, 2020, the region had only experienced moderate magnitude (Mw < 6.2) earthquakes over the last century. We use geodetic data to constrain a model of subsurface fault slip. We adopt an unregularized Bayesian sampling approach relying solely on physically justifiable prior information and account for uncertainties in both the assumed elastic structure and fault geometry. The rupture of the Elazığ earthquake was mostly unilateral, with two primary disconnected regions of slip. This rupture pattern may be controlled by structural complexity. Both the Elazığ and 2010 Mw 6.1 Kovancılar events ruptured portions of the central EAF that are believed to be coupled during interseismic periods, and the Palu segment is the last portion of the EAF showing a large fault slip deficit which has not yet ruptured in the last 145 years.

New Insights Into the Slip Budget at Nankai: An Iterative Approach to Estimate Coseismic Slip and Afterslip

AbstractThe slip budget at a subduction zone megathrust is met by a spectrum of slip behaviors including coseismic slip from great earthquakes, afterslip, episodic tremor and slip (ETS), long‐term slow slip events (SSEs), and quasisteady interseismic creep. Long‐term geodetic monitoring at the Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan has recorded deformation observations spanning nearly a complete earthquake cycle, making this region the best study area for obtaining a full understanding of how the slip budget is partitioned along the interface and how the rheological conditions evolve through space and time. In this work, we conduct an iterative inversion of vertical surface displacement data to jointly estimate coseismic slip during the 1944/46 Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes, spatiotemporal afterslip history following those earthquakes, and postseismic mantle flow. A suite of postseismic models with variable elastic slab and plate geometry and mantle viscosity all show at least 30 years of sustained afterslip within the ETS zone and the gap between the top of the ETS zone and the fully coupled zone. This result demonstrates that stable, long‐duration afterslip is possible in the ETS zone. Summing the estimated cumulative slip from this study with estimates from previous studies of cumulative slip during the interseismic period, including episodic SSEs, we find that eastern Shikoku island has nearly met all of its slip budget for a 150‐year interseismic cycle, whereas western Shikoku island has a slip deficit of nearly half the budget (4 out of 8.25 meters) above 20 km depth on the subduction interface.

Locking-derived tsunami scenarios for the most recent megathrust earthquakes in Chile: implications for tsunami hazard assessment

The ever-increasing data from continues geodetic networks has allowed to reveal first-order spatial relations between pre-seismic highly locked zones on the interface and regions of large coseismic slip. Here we use a distribution of locking degree and recurrence of historical earthquakes along the Chilean subduction zone to estimate the slip deficit accumulated since previous tsunamigenic earthquakes and use these constrains to simulate tsumani signals. We generate tsunami models for the recent five major tsunamigenic earthquakes in Chile during the last decade: Maule (2010), Pisagua (2014), Illapel (2015), Melinka (2016) and Valparaiso (2017). Results were compared with tsunami records to evaluate the use of locking degree as an estimate of displacement of future earthquakes and as a tool for tsunami hazard assessment. Our tsunami simulations for the Maule (2010) and Illapel (2015), earthquakes that filled a seismic gap, reproduce well the tsunami observations, for the case of Pisagua (2014), Valparaiso (2016) and Melinka (2017) although it exists a correspondence in the areas of greater degree of locking with the coseismic slip, there is also an imbalance between the energy accumulated and released in the interseismic period considered according to the historical seismicity. This indicate that the rupture of small asperities (areas that release high slip during earthquakes) may have a complex pattern of recurrence and do not fully affect a locked patch. Locking-derived tsunami scenarios represent well tsunami observations of earthquakes that ruptured a locked seismic gap, and they can be used in addition to the actual methodologies to improve the estimation of tsunami hazard.

Narrow Rupture of the 2020 Mw 7.4 La Crucecita, Mexico, Earthquake

AbstractOn 23 June 2020, a large (Mw 7.4) interplate thrust earthquake struck near the town of La Crucecita in the state of Oaxaca in southern Mexico, following a 55-yr interseismic period. A seismic source model is well constrained by teleseismic waveforms, static Global Positioning System offsets, and tsunami data, suggesting that the earthquake occurred on the slab interface at a dip of ∼23°, with a narrow elliptical asperity concentrating around a shallow depth of ∼20 km. The rupture propagates bilaterally from the hypocenter, and the down-dip rupture is restricted to ∼25 km by slow slip events (SSEs). The down-dip shear stress is released by SSEs during the interseismic period, limiting the earthquake magnitude and possibly resulting in the characteristic earthquake. The 2020 La Crucecita event, thus, is a good reminder to assess the seismic and tsunami potential in this region. The stress changes caused by the coseismic slip of the 2017 Mw 8.2 Chiapas earthquake are too small to trigger the 2020 La Crucecita earthquake. However, combined with the postseismic afterslip effects that play a leading role, it greatly promotes the eventual occurrence of the La Crucecita event. The results demonstrate the importance of considering postseismic afterslip, when evaluating seismic hazard and its migratory pattern.

Kinematics and Dynamics of the 24 January 2020 Mw 6.7 Elazig, Turkey Earthquake

AbstractWe determine rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.7 Elazig, Turkey earthquake from joint inversion of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements, regional 1 Hz Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), strong motion, and teleseismic waveforms, and we also use dynamic modeling to assess the faulting properties to explain the observed kinematics. Our work shows that this event predominantly ruptured unilaterally toward the SW along the East Anatolian Fault Zone at a speed as slow as 2.0 km/s for ~20 s, and three main asperities are formed with a depth ranging from 20 km to the surface, but the surface rupture seems negligible. Besides, the dynamic model reveals an initial heterogeneous stress distribution with variations up to 30 MPa, which has been probably built up during the interseismic period. While this event does not seem to promote the failure of Pazarcık seismic gap, it remains elusive to evaluate the disturbed seismic potential between Elazig and Bingol regions.

Competition between preslip and deviatoric stress modulates precursors for laboratory earthquakes

Variations in elastic wave velocity and amplitude prior to failure have been documented in laboratory experiments as well as in a limited number of crustal earthquakes. These variations have generally been attributed to fault zone healing, changes in crack density, or pore fluid effects modulated dilatation or fault slip. However, the relationships between amplitude and velocity variations during the seismic cycle, and the underlying mechanisms of precursors to failure remain poorly understood. Here, we perform frictional shear experiments and measure the evolution of elastic wave velocity and amplitude throughout the laboratory seismic cycle. We find that elastic amplitudes and velocities undergo clear preseismic variations prior to fault failure. While preseismic amplitude reduction occurs early in the interseismic period, wave speed reduces later, just prior to failure. We perform a complementary set of stress oscillation experiments to quantify the response of seismic amplitudes and velocities to variations in the stress tensor. Taken together, our results indicate that preseismic amplitude variations are primarily controlled by fault slip rate and acceleration. On the other hand, elastic velocity responds to a combination of fault preslip which reduces seismic wavespeed and increasing stress in the wallrock, which increases wavespeed. Our data show that precursory changes in seismic wave speed may be more common than previously thought because they are masked by changes in wallrock stress. These results underscore the importance of continuous and long-term time-lapse monitoring of crustal faults for seismic hazard assessment and potential precursors to failure.

Influence of Fluid‐Assisted Healing on Fault Permeability Structure

AbstractMicrocracks in fault damage zones can heal under thermally controlled processes. If a flow communication exists between a fluid source and the fault damage zone, warm fluids can migrate into it, change its thermal conditions, and assist healing. The crack life span depends on the local temperature and is, thus, modified by the infiltration of warm fluids. The features of the initial fault architecture govern how the fluids will propagate within the fault damage zones. This affects the rate of healing and the rate of permeability reduction. The region infiltrated by fluids will then show a significant decrease in its permeability, as seen in many field examples like the Alpine Fault. Conventionally, the damage zones immediately near the fault core have a high permeability that decays as we go further away. However, the region adjacent to the fault core, in the Alpine Fault, New Zealand, has the lowest permeability in the current interseismic period. As shown by our simulations, this can be due to healing and sealing, favored by the localized high geothermal gradients (confirmed by the drilling data) and the upward fluid migration through the fault relay structure, which accelerated mass diffusion and minerals precipitation.

Fault valving and pore pressure evolution in simulations of earthquake sequences and aseismic slip

Fault-zone fluids control effective normal stress and fault strength. While most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure distribution, geologists have documented fault valving behavior, that is, cyclic changes in pressure and unsteady fluid migration along faults. Here we quantify fault valving through 2-D antiplane shear simulations of earthquake sequences on a strike-slip fault with rate-and-state friction, upward Darcy flow along a permeable fault zone, and permeability evolution. Fluid overpressure develops during the interseismic period, when healing/sealing reduces fault permeability, and is released after earthquakes enhance permeability. Coupling between fluid flow, permeability and pressure evolution, and slip produces fluid-driven aseismic slip near the base of the seismogenic zone and earthquake swarms within the seismogenic zone, as ascending fluids pressurize and weaken the fault. This model might explain observations of late interseismic fault unlocking, slow slip and creep transients, swarm seismicity, and rapid pressure/stress transmission in induced seismicity sequences.

Bidirectional Loading of the Subduction Interface: Evidence From the Kinematics of Slow Slip Events

AbstractSubduction zones host some of Earth's most damaging natural hazards, including megathrust earthquakes and earthquake‐induced tsunamis. A major control on the initiation and rupture characteristics of subduction megathrust earthquakes is how the coupled zone along the subduction interface accumulates elastic strain between events. We present results from observations of slow slip events (SSEs) in Cascadia occurring during the interseismic period downdip of the fully coupled zone, which imply that the orientation of strain accumulation within the coupled zone can vary with depth. Interseismic GPS motions suggest that forces derived from relative plate motions across a shallow, offshore locked plate interface dominate over decadal timescales. Deeper on the plate interface, below the locked (seismogenic) patch, slip during SSEs dominantly occurs in the updip direction, reflecting a dip‐parallel force acting on the slab, such as slab pull. This implies that in subduction zones with obliquely convergent plate motions, the seismogenic zone of the megathrust is loaded by forces acting in two discrete directions, leading to a depth‐varying orientation of strain accumulation on the plate interface.

Characteristics of earthquake ruptures and dynamic off-fault deformation on propagating faults

Abstract. Natural fault networks are geometrically complex systems that evolve through time. The evolution of faults and their off-fault damage patterns are influenced by both dynamic earthquake ruptures and aseismic deformation in the interseismic period. To better understand each of their contributions to faulting we simulate both earthquake rupture dynamics and long-term deformation in a visco-elasto-plastic crust subjected to rate- and state-dependent friction. The continuum mechanics-based numerical model presented here includes three new features. First, a 2.5-D approximation is created to incorporate the effects of a viscoelastic lower crustal substrate below a finite depth. Second, we introduce a dynamically adaptive (slip-velocity-dependent) measure of fault width to ensure grid size convergence of fault angles for evolving faults. Third, fault localization is facilitated by plastic strain weakening of bulk rate and state friction parameters as inspired by laboratory experiments. This allows us to simulate sequences of episodic fault growth due to earthquakes and aseismic creep for the first time. Localized fault growth is simulated for four bulk rheologies ranging from persistent velocity weakening to velocity strengthening. Interestingly, in each of these bulk rheologies, faults predominantly localize and grow due to aseismic deformation. Yet, cyclic fault growth at more realistic growth rates is obtained for a bulk rheology that transitions from velocity-strengthening friction to velocity-weakening friction. Fault growth occurs under Riedel and conjugate angles and transitions towards wing cracks. Off-fault deformation, both distributed and localized, is typically formed during dynamic earthquake ruptures. Simulated off-fault deformation structures range from fan-shaped distributed deformation to localized splay faults. We observe that the fault-normal width of the outer damage zone saturates with increasing fault length due to the finite depth of the seismogenic zone. We also observe that dynamically and statically evolving stress fields from neighboring fault strands affect primary and secondary fault growth and thus that normal stress variations affect earthquake sequences. Finally, we find that the amount of off-fault deformation distinctly depends on the degree of optimality of a fault with respect to the prevailing but dynamically changing stress field. Typically, we simulate off-fault deformation on faults parallel to the loading direction. This produces a 6.5-fold higher off-fault energy dissipation than on an optimally oriented fault, which in turn has a 1.5-fold larger stress drop. The misalignment of the fault with respect to the static stress field thus facilitates off-fault deformation. These results imply that fault geometries bend, individual fault strands interact, and optimal orientations and off-fault deformation vary through space and time. With our work we establish the basis for simulations and analyses of complex evolving fault networks subject to both long-term and short-term dynamics.

Epithermal clast coating inside the rock avalanche-debris flow deposits from Mount Meager Volcanic Complex, British Columbia (Canada)

The observational and semi-quantitative sedimentological analyses of the lithofacies assemblage contribute to describe at different scales the breccia matrix along the sheared and transformed contact between rock avalanche deposits and trailing debris flow deposits emplaced by a large landslide at Mt. Meager volcano in British Columbia in 2010. An inverted cataclastic gradient of crushed breccias in a fluidized and mixed matrix implies a structurally controlled flow regime and rapid deposition. The coating matrix changed the initial polymodal distribution of the debris-flow lithofacies. Clast shape evolution helps to characterize the cataclastic sorting during transport and fluidized disaggregation. A plot of matrix percent against matrix/gravels helps to distinguish primary hot fracturing of about 61% from initial dilation and sheared fracturing involving ~22% matrix. Extensional disaggregation between 73 and 79% matrix is related to hydromagmatic fragmentation within an epithermal system. Clayey mineral assemblages identified by XRD patterns are related to colloidal aluminium gel, cataclastic shear bands, and quartz microstructures in epithermal breccia zones (pH = 2–3, 200–350 °C, <10–20 GPa).Microstructural analysis differentiates the inner rim of coated clasts from their border and the surrounding matrix in impact melt breccias. Sequential coating stages are inferred during the propagation of the shock wave with an oscillatory relative speed during the inter-seismic period. We differentiate: 1) shock faulting which contributes to the impacted quartz (10–35 GPa) in a devitrified matrix and pseudotachylite coating related to frictional melting at the margin of a conduit; 2) shock response (85 GPa) in epithermal vein with calcic spheroids, CO2 dissociation, and basaltic melt (70–101 GPa, >1500 °C); and 3) the secondary fracturing with flash heating and pressure pulse during cavitation (ΔP ~ 10 GPa, >1000–1500 °C), which generates pockets of partial melting, quartz spheroids, and a roll-over effect for the inner rim of coated clasts. The formation of impact melt breccias and the debris flow are related to the slowing elastic impact wave with an oscillatory relative speed during the inter-seismic period along a proximal strike-slip fault.This study helps identify how the proximal rock avalanche transformed into a highly mobile debris flow, larger examples of which pose a hazard to the town of Pemberton, at a distance of 65 km from Mt. Meager.

Spatiotemporal patterns of distributed slip in southern Owens Valley indicated by deformation of late Pleistocene shorelines, eastern California

AbstractHigh-resolution elevation surveys of deformed late Pleistocene shorelines and new luminescence dating provide improved constraints on spatiotemporal patterns of distributed slip between normal and strike-slip faulting in southern Owens Valley, eastern California. A complex array of five subparallel faults, including the normal Sierra Nevada frontal fault and the oblique-normal Owens Valley fault, collectively form an active pull-apart basin that has developed within a dextral transtensional shear zone. Spatiotemporal patterns of slip are constrained by post–IR-IRSL (post-infrared–infrared stimulated luminescence) dating of a 40.0 ± 5.8 ka highstand beach ridge that is vertically faulted and tilted up to 9.8 ± 1.8 m and an undeformed suite of 11–16 ka beach ridges. The tectono-geomorphic record of deformed beach ridges and alluvial fans indicates that both normal and dextral faulting occurred between the period of ca. 16 and 40 ka, whereas dextral faulting has been the predominant style of slip since ca. 16 ka. A total extension rate of 0.7 ± 0.2 mm/yr resolved in the N72°E direction across all faults in Owens Lake basin is within error of geodetic estimates, suggesting extension has been constant during intervals of 101–104 yr. A new vertical slip rate of 0.13 ± 0.04 m/k.y. on the southern Owens Valley fault from deformed 160 ± 32 ka shoreline features also suggests constant slip for intervals up to 105 yr when compared to paleoseismic vertical slip rates from the same fault segment. This record supports a deformation mechanism characterized by steady slip and long interseismic periods of 8–10 k.y. where the south-central Owens Valley fault and Sierra Nevada frontal fault form a parallel fault system.

Localization and coalescence of seismicity before large earthquakes

SUMMARY We examine localization processes of low magnitude seismicity in relation to the occurrence of large earthquakes using three complementary analyses: (i) estimated production of rock damage by background events, (ii) evolving occupied fractional area of background seismicity and (iii) progressive coalescence of individual earthquakes into clusters. The different techniques provide information on different time scales and on the spatial extent of weakened damaged regions. Techniques (i) and (ii) use declustered catalogues to avoid the occasional strong fluctuations associated with aftershock sequences, while technique (iii) examines developing clusters in entire catalogue data. We analyse primarily earthquakes around large faults that are locked in the interseismic periods, and examine also as a contrasting example seismicity from the creeping Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault. Results of analysis (i) show that the M &amp;gt; 7 Landers 1992, Hector Mine 1999, El Mayor-Cucapah 2010 and Ridgecrest 2019 main shocks in Southern and Baja California were preceded in the previous decades by generation of rock damage around the eventual rupture zones. Analysis (ii) reveals localization (reduced fractional area) 2–3 yr before these main shocks and before the M &amp;gt; 7 Düzce 1999 earthquake in Turkey. Results with technique (iii) indicate that individual events tend to coalesce rapidly to clusters in the final 1–2 yr before the main shocks. Corresponding analyses of data from the Parkfield region show opposite delocalization patterns and decreasing clustering before the 2004 M6 earthquake. Continuing studies with these techniques, combined with analysis of geodetic data and insights from laboratory experiments and model simulations, might improve the ability to track preparation processes leading to large earthquakes.

Unexpected coseismic surface uplift at Tirúa-Mocha Island area of south Chile before and during the Mw 8.8 Maule 2010 earthquake: a possible upper plate splay fault

The Tirúa-Mocha Island area (38.2°-38.4° S) in southern Chile has been affected by two megaearthquakes in only 50 years: the 1960 Mw=9.5 Valdivia earthquake and 2010 Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake. We studied in the field the vertical ground movements occurred during the interseismic period between both earthquakes and the coseismic period of 2010 Maule earthquake and 2011 Mw=7.1 Araucanía earthquake. During the 1960 earthquake, vertical coseismic ground movements are typical of subduction related earthquakes with Mocha Island, located close to the trench, experienced bigger ground uplift (150 cm) than that occurred in Tirúa (-20 cm), place located in the continental margin at the latitude of Mocha Island. Then during the 1960-2010 interseismic period, the 1960 coseismic uplift remained at Mocha Island unlike the normal interseismic subsidence that occurred northward at Arauco Peninsula and Santa María Island. Also Tirúa experienced the biggest interseismic uplift (180 cm) in all the area affected later by 2010 Maule earthquake. Then during the 2010 Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake an anomalous vertical coseismic ground uplift occurred in the study area, opposite to that of 1960 since Mocha Island experienced lower (25 cm) ground uplift than Tirúa (90 cm). Subsequently, during the Araucanía 2011 earthquake a ground uplift in Mocha Island (50 cm) and subsidence at Tirúa (20 cm) occurred. These unexpected vertical ground movements can be explained by the existence of an upper plate splay fault located below the sea bottom between Tirúa and Mocha Island: the Tirúa-Mocha splay fault. Considering the last seismic cycle, the activity of this fault would have started after the 1960 Valdivia earthquake. During 2010 Maule earthquake, the main slip occurred at Tirúa Mocha splay fault. Finally during 2011 Araucanía earthquake, the slip occurred mainly at the updip of Wadati-Benioff plane with probable normal activity of Tirúa-Mocha splay fault. Simple elastic dislocation models considering the Wadati-Benioff plane and the Tirúa-Mocha splay fault activity, can account for all the vertical ground movements observed during 1960 earthquake, the 1960-2010 interseismic period, the 2010 Maule earthquake and the 2011 Araucanía earthquake.

Are normal fault earthquakes due to elastic rebound or gravitational collapse?

We discuss two competing models for explaining the ground deformation associated with normal faulting earthquake in the brittle elastic upper crust. The classic elastic rebound theory is usually applied for all tectonic settings. In normal fault earthquakes, this model would predict a horizontal stretching eventually responsible for the elastic rebound at the earthquake. However, volumes mostly subside vertically during an extensional earthquake and the collapsed ground in the hanging wall is about one order of magnitude larger than the uplifted volumes of the surrounding hanging wall and footwall. The elastic rebound model would explain this asymmetry with a high horizontal elastic compressibility of the hanging wall and footwall absorbing the coseismic push. We rather suggest that the force activating normal fault earthquakes is mostly dictated by the sliding of the hanging wall, owing gravitational potential. The much larger coseismic subsidence with respect to the uplift can be explained by the closure at depth of a diffuse network of microfractures developed during the interseismic period. Since the horizontal stretching does not exist below ~1 km of depth, with the minimum horizontal stress tensor becoming positive below that depth, the development of a normal fault can be activated only by the vertical maximum stress tensor, i.e., the lithostatic load. The common fluids expulsion at the coseismic stage requires diffuse secondary permeability in the upper crust, in agreement with the presence of a diffuse network of microfractures.