Interseismic Loading Research Articles

Empirical evidence for multi-decadal transients affecting geodetic velocity fields and derived seismicity forecasts in Italy

This study critically examines the use of geodetic strain rates for forecasting long-term earthquake rates in a slow-deforming region such as Italy, challenging the prevailing assumption of their temporal stationarity in interseismic stages for seismic hazard analyses. Typically, earthquake-rate models derived from geodesy assume stationary interseismic loading rates, with stress rates in the upper crust proportional to geodetic strain rates, leading to earthquake rates directly proportional to these strain rate tensors. However, our analysis unveils a pronounced correlation between the epicenters of earthquakes that occurred in the past 60–120 years and areas forecasted for higher future earthquake rates based on geodetic strain rates. This correlation appears weak and scattered in analyses of even older earthquakes. To corroborate our findings, we select the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (mw = 6.3) to prove that its apparently marginal viscoelastic relaxation significantly alters the time series of adjacent benchmarks for the following ~ 30–60 years, explaining the high correlation between recent earthquakes and strain rate peaks. Our findings require a methodological shift in interpreting geodetic data for earthquake forecasting, emphasizing the two-component (plate-tectonics-driven stationary long-term deformation, and decadal transient viscoelastic relaxation after an earthquake) nature of crustal stress accumulation recorded in geodetic data. We underscore the potential of geodesy-derived forecasts to provide deeper insights into seismic hazards, stressing the importance of acknowledging the long-term temporal variability inherent in geodetic measurements.

Influence of Fault System Geometry and Slip Rates on the Relative Role of Coseismic and Interseismic Stresses on Earthquake Triggering and Recurrence Variability

AbstractWe model Coulomb stress transfer (CST) due to 30 strong earthquakes occurring on normal faults since 1509 CE in Calabria, Italy, including the influence of interseismic loading, and compare the results to existing studies of stress interaction from the Central and Southern Apennines, Italy. The three normal fault systems have different geometries and long‐term slip‐rates. We investigate the extent to which stress transfer can influence the occurrence of future earthquakes and what factors may govern the variability in earthquake recurrence in different fault systems. The Calabrian, Central Apennines, and Southern Apennines fault systems have 91%, 73%, and 70% of faults with mean positive cumulative CST in the time considered; this is due to fewer faults across strike, more across strike stress reductions, and greater along‐strike spacing in the three regions respectively. In regions with close along strike spacing or few faults across strike, such as Calabria and Southern Apennines, the stress loading history is mostly dominated by interseismic loading and most faults are positively stressed before an earthquake occur on them (96% of all faults that ruptured in Calabria; 94% of faults in Southern Apennines), and some of the strongest earthquakes occur on faults with the highest mean cumulative stress of all faults prior to the earthquake. In the Central Apennines, where across strike interactions are the predominant process, 79% of earthquakes occur on faults positively stressed. The results highlight that fault system geometry plays a central role in characterizing the stress evolution associated with earthquake recurrence.

Recent Relative Sea‐Level Changes Recorded by Coral Microatolls in Southern Ryukyus Islands, Japan: Implication for the Seismic Cycle of the Megathrust

AbstractThe seismic hazard related to megathrust earthquakes in the Ryukyus (southern Japan) is poorly constrained as no large earthquake has been reported there. The Meiwa tsunami impacted the coasts of the Yaeyama and Miyako islands in 1771 but its origin is still debated. Global Navigation Satellite Systems measurements indicate that strain is accumulating along the plate interface but the observation period is short. It is thus crucial to gain information on the seismic potential of the megathrust. The islands of the Ryukyu archipelago are located in a tropical region and surrounded by reefs where numerous microatolls are growing. They preserved the record of variations of the relative sea‐level in their skeleton. We mapped seven sites over five islands and subsequently selected and sampled eight slabs of modern microatolls. The corals have emerged slowly at a rate of 0.7–2.8 mm/yr due to the long‐term interseismic loading on the megathrust up to 40 km in deep. The coupling rate estimated from elastic back‐slip models ranges between 10% and 100%. We also identified multi‐decadal relative sea‐level changes of a few cm/yr, likely due to very long duration slow‐slip events (SSE) along the shallow or deep parts of the megathrust. Those SSEs occur each 10–40 years and have accommodated 50% of the convergence rate in the last 250 years. Our study provides new constraints on the seismic cycle of the Ryukyu megathrust and on the seismic hazard in this region and suggests that a large megathrust earthquake could occur in the area in the future.

2019 Mw 5.9 Mirpur, Pakistan Earthquake: Insights from Integrating Geodetic, Seismic, and Field Observations

Abstract On 24 September 2019, an Mw 5.9 earthquake struck near the Mangla reservoir in northeastern Pakistan and resulted in 39 fatalities and 746 serious injuries, making it the deadliest earthquake in the region since the 2005 Mw 7.6 Kashmir earthquake. Here, we integrate geodetic, seismic, and field observations to characterize the source properties and impact of the Mirpur earthquake as well as investigate whether it might be a reservoir-induced event. From inverting Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data, we find that a fault with strike ∼310°, dip ∼6°, and rake ∼117° is the optimal source, with slip concentrated between 5 and 6 km depth. This is consistent with our relocated aftershocks depth distribution and the lack of surface rupture observed in the field. Therefore, we infer that the earthquake ruptured the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The event’s shallow depth might explain the extensive damage caused despite its moderate magnitude, with a maximum shaking intensity of VIII based on our field survey. The survey also revealed extensive damages associated with earthquake-induced liquefaction. Our modeling shows that loading due to increased reservoir water level in the three months before the Mirpur earthquake led to Coulomb stress increase of ∼7–10 kPa on the rupture plane. However, this effect is ∼10 times smaller than the Coulomb stress increase due to the 2006 Mangla earthquake, and the Mirpur earthquake only occurred ∼1–2 weeks after peak water level. These suggest that pore pressure diffusion contributed to promoting the fault rupture at a time when it is close to failure due to accumulated stress from inter-seismic loading. Because the Mirpur earthquake resulted in a stress increase of >0.2 MPa on the surrounding sections of the MHT and nearby faults, future rupture of these faults is a significant hazard and proper management of reservoir operations is necessary to prevent further elevating the seismic risk.

Velocity Structure and Deep Earthquakes beneath the Kinnaur, NW Himalaya: Constraints from Relocated Seismicity and Moment Tensor Analysis

Abstract The optimum 1D velocity model is calculated for the Kinnaur sector of the NW Himalaya utilizing the arrival time information of the local earthquakes (137 no.) recorded with 12 broadband seismic network within the azimuthal gap of ≤180°. This optimum 1D velocity model is a five-layer model and ranges from the surface to 90 km in the shallow mantle. P velocity varies from 5.5 km/s to 8.6 km/s in the crust and upper mantle, and S-wave velocity varies between 3.2 km/s and 4.9 km/s for the same range. When we relocated the earthquakes with the Joint Hypocenter Determination program incorporating the optimum 1D velocity model, it resulted in a lower RMS residual error of 0.23 s for the hypocenter locations compared to initial hypo71 locations. A total of 1274 P and 1272 S arrival times were utilized to compute station delays. We observed positive variations in P-station delays from -0.19 s below the PULG station to 0.11 s below the SRHN station. Similarly, for S-station delays, we observed negative delays at each individual site from -0.65 s at LOSR station to -0.16 s at the SRHN station. This large variation in P- and S-station delays corresponds to the 3D nature of the subsurface below the Kinnaur Himalaya. The relocated seismicity is clustered along the STD fault at sub-Moho and Moho depths ranging between 40 km and 80 km. The seismicity distribution aligned across the strike of the STD and along the strike of the Kaurik-Chango fault (KCF) can be attributed to the cross-fault interactions of the KCF and the STD fault in the area. We also observed bimodal depth distribution of seismicity in the Higher and Tethys Himalayas. The occurrence of earthquakes down to a depth of ~0-40 km and 50-80 km in the study area can be interpreted in terms of stress contribution from interseismic stress loading associated with the India-Eurasia collision tectonics. The presence of hypocentres in the shallow mantle at 120 km depth highlights the strength of the mantle, which seems to be deforming in a brittle manner below the region. The computed focal mechanisms exhibit generally the flexing of the Indian plate below the Lesser Himalaya with shear parallel to the strike of the MCT and extension orthogonal to it. This study shows deformation over the entire crust and shallow upper mantle levels, with differential stress conditions. Thus, we can consider the crust and the shallow upper mantle down to depths of 120 km to be seismogenic in nature and is capable of producing the microseismicity beneath the Kinnaur Himalaya.

Seismic and Aseismic Cycle of the Ecuador–Colombia Subduction Zone

The Colombia–Ecuador subduction zone is an exceptional natural laboratory to study the seismic cycle associated with large and great subduction earthquakes. Since the great 1906 Mw = 8.6 Colombia–Ecuador earthquake, four large Mw > 7.5 megathrust earthquakes occurred within the 1906 rupture area, releasing altogether a cumulative seismic moment of ∼35% of the 1906 seismic moment. We take advantage of newly released seismic catalogs and global positioning system (GPS) data at the scale of the Colombia–Ecuador subduction zone to balance the moment deficit that is building up on the megathrust interface during the interseismic period with the seismic and aseismic moments released by transient slip episodes. Assuming a steady-state interseismic loading, we found that the seismic moment released by the 2016 Mw = 7.8 Pedernales earthquake is about half of the moment deficit buildup since 1942, suggesting that the Pedernales segment was mature to host that seismic event and its postseismic afterslip. In the aftermath of the 2016 event, the asperities that broke in 1958 and 1979 both appears to be mature to host a large Mw > 7.5 earthquakes if they break in two individual seismic events, or an Mw∼7.8–8.0 earthquake if they break simultaneously. The analysis of our interseismic-coupling map suggests that the great 1906 Colombia–Ecuador earthquake could have ruptured a segment of 400 km-long bounded by two 80 km wide creeping segments that coincide with the entrance into the subduction of the Carnegie ridge in Ecuador and the Yaquina Graben in Colombia. These creeping segments share similar frictional properties and may both behave as strong seismic barriers able to stop ruptures associated with great events like in 1906. Smaller creeping segments are imaged within the 1906 rupture area and are located at the extremities of the large 1942, 1958, 1979, and 2016 seismic ruptures. Finally, assuming that the frequency–magnitude distribution of megathrust seismicity follows the Gutenberg–Richter law and considering that 50% of the transient slip on the megathrust is aseismic, we found that the maximum magnitude subduction earthquake that can affect this subduction zone has a moment magnitude equivalent to Mw ∼8.8 with a recurrence time of 1,400 years. No similar magnitude event has yet been observed in that region.

Numerical analysis of interseismic, coseismic and post-seismic phases for normal and reverse faulting earthquakes in Italy

SUMMARYThe preparation, initiation and occurrence dynamics of earthquakes in Italy are governed by several frequently unknown physical mechanisms and parameters. Understanding these mechanisms is crucial for developing new techniques and approaches for earthquake monitoring and hazard assessments. Here, we develop a first-order numerical model simulating quasi-static crustal interseismic loading, coseismic brittle episodic dislocation and post-seismic relaxation for extensional and compressional earthquakes in Italy based on a common framework of lithostatic and tectonic forces. Our model includes an upper crust, where the fault is locked, and a deep crust, where the fault experiences steady shear.The results indicate that during the interseismic phase, the contrasting behaviour between the upper locked fault segment and lower creeping fault segment generates a stretched volume at depth in the hangingwall via extensional tectonics while a contracted volume forms via compressional tectonics. The interseismic stress and strain gradients invert at the coseismic stage, with the interseismic dilated volume contracting during the coseismic stage, and vice versa. Moreover, interseismic stress gradients promote coseismic gravitational subsidence of the hangingwall for normal fault earthquakes and elastic uplift for reverse fault earthquakes. Finally, the post-seismic relaxation is characterized by further ground subsidence and uplift for normal and reverse faulting earthquakes, respectively, which is consistent with the faulting style. The fault is the passive feature, with slipping generating the seismic waves, whereas the energy activating the movement is stored mostly in the hangingwall volume. The main source of energy for normal faulting and thrust is provided by the lithostatic load and elastic load, respectively.

Three-dimensional numerical simulation of the interseismic and coseismic phases associated with the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy)

Although several observations have been reported in the literature before a strong earthquake, their relation with the forthcoming event is often controversial. Since many physical processes and parameters govern the dynamics of preparation, initiation, and occurrence of earthquakes, their understanding is essential for explaining anomalous seismological, geophysical, hydrological and geodetic signals before a strong earthquake that may be considered for seismic monitoring and hazard assessment.In this work, the interseismic and coseismic stress and strain fields associated with the 6 April 2009, Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake are calculated via a 3D numerical model designed to simulate the crustal interseismic loading and the coseismic brittle episodic dislocation along the fault. The model adopts a framework of gravitational and tectonic forces that are compatible with the geodynamics of the Central Apennines region of the Italian territory. The model assumes a brittle upper crust, where the fault has stick-slip behaviour, and a plastic deeper crust, where the fault is in stationary creep.The results indicate that the concurrent action of gravitational and tectonic forces determines steep interseismic stress gradients at the transition between the creeping and locked fault planes that promote the coseismic subsidence of the hanging wall. The interseismic strain above the transition between that locked upper fault and its unlocked lower shear zone develops a dilated volume in the hanging wall and a contracted volume in the footwall. These stress and strain variations are compatible with seismological, geophysical and geodetic anomalies observed before the earthquake, i.e., Vp/Vs anomalies and location of foreshocks. Interseismic stress and strain patterns invert during the coseismic stage. The dilated volume, formed during the interseismic phase, will be contracted at the coseismic stage and, conversely, the footwall volume previously contracted will be expanded.

Stress loading history of earthquake faults influenced by fault/shear zone geometry and Coulomb pre-stress

Whether the stress-loading of faults to failure in earthquakes appears to be random or to an extent explainable, given constraints on fault/shear-zone interaction and the build-up and release of stress over many earthquake cycles, is a key question for seismic hazard assessment. Here we investigate earthquake recurrence for a system of 25 active normal faults arranged predominantly along strike from each other, allowing us to isolate the effects of stress-loading due to regional strain versus across- and along-strike fault interaction. We calculate stress changes over 6 centuries due to interseismic loading and 25 > Mw 5.5 earthquakes. Where only one fault exists across strike, stress-loading is dominated by the regional tectonics through slip on underlying shear zones and fault planes have spatially smooth stress with predominantly time-dependent stress increase. Conversely, where faults are stress-loaded by across-strike fault interactions, fault planes have more irregular stress patterns and interaction-influenced stress loading histories. Stress-loading to failure in earthquakes is not the same for all faults and is dependent on the geometry of the fault/shear-zone system.

Interseismic Loading of Subduction Megathrust Drives Long‐Term Uplift in Northern Chile

AbstractLarge earthquakes are the product of elastic stress that has accumulated over decades to centuries along segments of active faults. Assuming an elastic crust, one can roughly estimate the location and rate of accumulation of elastic stress. However, this general framework does not account for inelastic, irrecoverable deformation, which results in large‐scale topography. We do not know over which part of the earthquake cycle such deformation occurs. Using InSAR and GNSS measurements, we report on a potential correlation between long‐term, inelastic vertical rate and short‐term, interseismic vertical rate in northern Chile. Approximately 4% to 8% of the geodetically derived interseismic vertical rates translate into permanent deformation, suggesting that topography of the forearc builds up during the interseismic period. This observation provides a quantitative basis for an improved understanding of the interplay between short‐term and long‐term dynamics along convergent plate boundaries.

Relative Sea‐Level Changes Over the Past Centuries in the Central Ryukyu Arc Inferred From Coral Microatolls

AbstractThis study focuses on Okinawa and Yoron islands, in order to better understand tectonics in the Ryukyu Arc related to the subduction zone. We used coral microatolls—known for their centimetric accuracy in the record of relative sea‐level (RSL) changes—to reconstruct RSL changes over the last century from living microatolls. A fossil microatoll in Yoron was used to discuss possible RSL changes beyond the last century. The signal consists of emergence whose rate varies through time, interrupted by decadal to multidecadal periods of sudden and/or gradual submergence and by interannual sea‐level falls. Comparison with other existing RSL records in the arc highlights RSL variability along the arc. This pattern contrasts with the homogeneous and linear absolute regional sea‐level rise, implying that this latter signal cannot fully explain our observations and that an additional process is required. We suggest the subduction zone as a possible source for generating centimetric scale RSL changes observed in coral microatolls. We tested how the Ryukyu megathrust could explain our observations with elastic dislocation modeling. The emergence trend could be explained by interseismic loading on the plate interface with a minimum coupling rate of 25%, which is higher than previous estimates based on short instrumental records. As for the submergence events that occurred regularly in the coral record, we show that they could be explained by slow slip events on the shallower part of the megathrust or in the transition zone. Such process could accommodate a significant part of the total convergence.

Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard

Successive locations of individual large earthquakes (Mw > 5.5) over years to centuries can be difficult to explain with simple Coulomb stress transfer (CST) because it is common for seismicity to circumvent nearest-neighbour along-strike faults where coseismic CST is greatest. We demonstrate that Coulomb pre-stress (the cumulative CST from multiple earthquakes and interseismic loading on non-planar faults) may explain this, evidenced by study of a 667-year historical record of earthquakes in central Italy. Heterogeneity in Coulomb pre-stresses across the fault system is >±50 bars, whereas coseismic CST is <±2 bars, so the latter will rarely overwhelm the former, explaining why historical earthquakes rarely rupture nearest neighbor faults. However, earthquakes do tend to occur where the cumulative coseismic and interseismic CST is positive, although there are notable examples where earthquake propagate across negatively stressed portions of faults. Hence Coulomb pre-stress calculated for non-planar faults is an ignored yet vital factor for earthquake triggering.

A Geodesy‐ and Seismicity‐Based Local Earthquake Likelihood Model for Central Los Angeles

AbstractWe estimate time‐independent earthquake likelihoods in central Los Angeles using a model of interseismic strain accumulation and the 1932–2017 seismic catalog. We assume that on the long‐term average, earthquakes and aseismic deformation collectively release seismic moment at a rate balancing interseismic loading, mainshocks obey the Gutenberg‐Richter law (a log linear magnitude‐frequency distribution [MFD]) up to a maximum magnitude and a Poisson process, and aftershock sequences obey the Gutenberg‐Richter and “Båth” laws. We model a comprehensive suite of these long‐term systems, assess how likely each system would be to have produced the MFD of the instrumental catalog, and use these likelihoods to probabilistically estimate the long‐term MFD. We estimate Mmax = 6.8 + 1.05/−0.4 (every ~300 years) or Mmax = 7.05 + 0.95/−0.4 assuming a truncated or tapered Gutenberg‐Richter MFD, respectively. Our results imply that, for example, the (median) likelihood of one or more Mw ≥ 6.5 mainshocks is 0.2% in 1 year, 2% in 10 years, and 18–21% in 100 years.

Smart Speed Imaging in Digital Image Correlation: Application to Seismotectonic Scale Modeling

Analogue models of earthquakes and seismic cycles are characterized by strong variations in strain rate: from slow interseismic loading to fast coseismic release of elastic energy. Deformation rates vary accordingly from micrometer per second (e.g. plate tectonic motion) to meter per second (e.g. rupture propagation). Deformation values are very small over one seismic cycle, in the order of a few tens of micrometer, because of the scaled nature of such models. This cross-scale behaviour poses a major challenge to effectively monitor the experiments by means of digital image correlation techniques, i.e. at high resolution ($>$100 Hz) during the coseismic period but without dramatically oversampling the interseismic period. We developed a smart speed imaging tool which allows on-the-fly scaling of imaging frequency with strain rate, based on an external trigger signal and a buffer. The external trigger signal comes from a force sensor that independently detects stress drops associated with analogue earthquakes which triggers storage of a short high frequency image sequence from the buffer. After the event has passed, the system returns to a low speed mode in which image data is downsampled until the next event trigger. Here we introduce the concept of smart speed imaging and document the necessary hard- and software. We test the algorithms in generic and real applications. A new analogue earthquake setup based on a modification of the Schulze ring-shear tester is used to verify the technique and discuss alternative trigger systems.

Development and Recovery of Stress‐Induced Elastic Anisotropy During Cyclic Loading Experiment on Westerly Granite

AbstractIn the upper crust, where brittle deformation mechanisms dominate, the development of crack networks subject to anisotropic stress fields generates stress‐induced elastic anisotropy. Here a rock specimen of Westerly granite was submitted to differential stress cycles (i.e., loading and unloading) of increasing amplitudes, up to failure and under upper crustal conditions. Combined records of strains, acoustic emissions, and P and S elastic wave anisotropies demonstrate that increasing differential stress promotes crack opening, sliding, and propagation subparallel to the main compressive stress orientation. However, the significant elastic anisotropies observed during loading (≥20%) almost vanish upon stress removal, demonstrating that in the absence of stress, crack‐related elastic anisotropy remains limited (≤10%). As a consequence, (i) crack‐related elastic anisotropies measured in the crust will likely be a strong function of the level of differential stress, and consequently (ii) continuous monitoring of elastic wave velocity anisotropy along faults could shed light on the mechanism of stress accumulation during interseismic loading.

Stress transfer and connectivity between the Bhutan Himalaya and the Shillong Plateau

Within the northern Indian Plate, the Shillong Plateau is a peculiar geodynamic terrane, hosting significant seismic activity outboard the Himalayan belt. This activity is often used as an argument to explain apparent reduced seismicity in the Bhutan Himalayas. Although current geophysical and geodetic data indicate that the Bhutan Himalayas accommodate more deformation than the Shillong Plateau, we aim to quantify the extent to which the two geodynamic regimes are connected and potentially interact through stress transfers. We compiled a map of major faults and earthquakes in the two regions and computed co-seismic stress transfer amplitudes. Our results indicate that the Bhutan Himalayas and the Shillong Plateau are less connected than previously suggested. Major earthquakes in either of the two regions mainly affect transverse faults connecting them, causing up to ~40 bar Coulomb stress change; however, this effect is clearly less on thrust faults of the either region (up to 1 bar only). The MW 8.25 1897 Assam earthquake that affected the Shillong Plateau did not cause a stress shadow on the Main Himalayan Thrust in Bhutan as previously suggested. Similarly, the Mw 8 ± 0.5 1714 Bhutan earthquake had negligible impact on stress accumulation on thrust faults bounding the Shillong Plateau. Furthermore, the main process shaping the regional stress patterns continues to be interseismic loading with complex boundary conditions in a diffuse deformation field involving the Bengal Basin and Indo-Burman Ranges. While both the Bhutan Himalayas and the Shillong Plateau exhibit a compressional regime, their stress evolutions are more weakly connected than hypothesized. Although our modelling suggests lateral increase in stress interactions, from west (less) to east (more), in the Bhutan Himalayas, a clearer picture will only emerge with better constrained fault geometries, slip rates, crustal structure, and seismicity catalogues in the entire region of distributed deformation.

Characterizing Afterslip and Ground Displacement Rate Increase Following the 2014 Iquique‐Pisagua Mw 8.1 Earthquake, Northern Chile

AbstractThe 2014 Iquique‐Pisagua Mw 8.1 earthquake ruptured only parts of the 1877 Northern Chile‐Southern Peru seismic gap. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of 152 continuous and campaign Global Positioning System time series that captured more than a decade of interseismic loading prior to the event and 2 years of afterslip. In high spatiotemporal resolution, our data document upper plate response not only at the coseismically affected latitudes but also at the adjacent Loa plate segment to the south. Using a combination of elastic and viscoelastic half‐space models of different stages of the seismic cycle, we found that the highly coupled, former seismic gap contains a narrow low coupling zone at 21°S latitude. Just after the 2014 earthquake, this zone acts as a barrier impeding afterslip to continue southward. Possible reasons for this impediment could involve crustal heterogeneities or coupling discontinuities at the plate interface. After 2 years, afterslip cumulates to a maximum of ~89 cm and becomes negligible. Global Positioning System observations south of the inferred seismotectonic barrier reveal a deformation rate increase in the second year after the event. Our slip models suggest that this could be caused by a downdip coupling increase, perhaps bringing the highly coupled southern Loa segment closer to failure. Taken together, our results reveal (1) the interaction between different areas undergoing stress release and stress buildup in a major seismic gap, (2) constraints for the temporal variation of coupling degree in different stages of the seismic cycle, and (3) the influence of large earthquakes at adjacent segments.

Unexpected earthquake hazard revealed by Holocene rupture on the Kenchreai Fault (central Greece): Implications for weak sub-fault shear zones

High-resolution elevation models, palaeoseismic trenching, and Quaternary dating demonstrate that the Kenchreai Fault in the eastern Gulf of Corinth (Greece) has ruptured in the Holocene. Along with the adjacent Pisia and Heraion Faults (which ruptured in 1981), our results indicate the presence of closely-spaced and parallel normal faults that are simultaneously active, but at different rates. Such a configuration allows us to address one of the major questions in understanding the earthquake cycle, specifically what controls the distribution of interseismic strain accumulation? Our results imply that the interseismic loading and subsequent earthquakes on these faults are governed by weak shear zones in the underlying ductile crust. In addition, the identification of significant earthquake slip on a fault that does not dominate the late Quaternary geomorphology or vertical coastal motions in the region provides an important lesson in earthquake hazard assessment.

The Geodetic Signature of the Earthquake Cycle at Subduction Zones: Model Constraints on the Deep Processes

AbstractRecent megathrust events in Tohoku (Japan), Maule (Chile), and Sumatra (Indonesia) were well recorded. Much has been learned about the dominant physical processes in megathrust zones: (partial) locking of the plate interface, detailed coseismic slip, relocking, afterslip, viscoelastic mantle relaxation, and interseismic loading. These and older observations show complex spatial and temporal patterns in crustal deformation and displacement, and significant differences among different margins. A key question is whether these differences reflect variations in the underlying processes, like differences in locking, or the margin geometry, or whether they are a consequence of the stage in the earthquake cycle of the margin. Quantitative models can connect these plate boundary processes to surficial and far‐field observations. We use relatively simple, cyclic geodynamic models to isolate the first‐order geodetic signature of the megathrust cycle. Coseismic and subsequent slip on the subduction interface is dynamically (and consistently) driven. A review of global preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic geodetic observations, and of their fit to the model predictions, indicates that similar physical processes are active at different margins. Most of the observed variability between the individual margins appears to be controlled by their different stages in the earthquake cycle. The modeling results also provide a possible explanation for observations of tensile faulting aftershocks and tensile cracking of the overriding plate, which are puzzling in the context of convergence/compression. From the inversion of our synthetic GNSS velocities we find that geodetic observations may incorrectly suggest weak locking of some margins, for example, the west Aleutian margin.

A finite difference method for off-fault plasticity throughout the earthquake cycle

We have developed an efficient computational framework for simulating multiple earthquake cycles with off-fault plasticity. The method is developed for the classical antiplane problem of a vertical strike-slip fault governed by rate-and-state friction, with inertial effects captured through the radiation-damping approximation. Both rate-independent plasticity and viscoplasticity are considered, where stresses are constrained by a Drucker–Prager yield condition. The off-fault volume is discretized using finite differences and tectonic loading is imposed by displacing the remote side boundaries at a constant rate. Time-stepping combines an adaptive Runge–Kutta method with an incremental solution process which makes use of an elastoplastic tangent stiffness tensor and the return-mapping algorithm. Solutions are verified by convergence tests and comparison to a finite element solution. We quantify how viscosity, isotropic hardening, and cohesion affect the magnitude and off-fault extent of plastic strain that develops over many ruptures. If hardening is included, plastic strain saturates after the first event and the response during subsequent ruptures is effectively elastic. For viscoplasticity without hardening, however, successive ruptures continue to generate additional plastic strain. In all cases, coseismic slip in the shallow sub-surface is diminished compared to slip accumulated at depth during interseismic loading. The evolution of this slip deficit with each subsequent event, however, is dictated by the plasticity model. Integration of the off-fault plastic strain from the viscoplastic model reveals that a significant amount of tectonic offset is accommodated by inelastic deformation ( ∼ 0.1 m per rupture, or ∼ 10% of the tectonic deformation budget).