Inter-provincial Transmission Research Articles

Mapping the inter-provincial pathways of resources and socio-economic impacts in China's just transition of coal power

In the sustainable transition of the power system, China's resource distribution characteristics lead to a distinct geographical separation between the main production and consumption areas of coal and coal power. This separation leads to the transmission of complex inter-regional social risks and responsibilities associated with the phase-out of coal power. Considering the inter-provincial transmission of coal and coal power, this paper constructs a novel two-layer network framework incorporating both coal mining and coal power. This method systematically assesses the contributions of coal power production and consumption to provincial employment and tax revenue, and identifies key paths of inter-provincial impact transmission for the first time. In terms of total contribution, coal mining contributes significantly more to employment and tax revenue (1.45 million jobs and 143 billion RMB) than coal power production (0.69 million jobs and 58.2 billion RMB). Spatially, employment and tax revenue related to coal power are concentrated in North China's production areas and the coastal consumption regions. Provinces like Shanxi, characterized by abundant resource reserves yet low consumption, are more exposed to socio-economic risks from other provinces reducing coal use, whereas economically developed provinces like Guangdong currently benefiting more from coal consumption, should assume corresponding responsibility in the future sustainable transition of power sector. Our analysis emphasizes the need for future policies to consider inter-provincial economic and social impacts, innovating horizontal risk compensation and shared responsibility mechanisms, to secure the interests of resource-based provinces in the just transition of China's coal power industry.

Dynamic optimisation of carbon allowance considering inter-provincial energy resources trade for emissions reduction: Case of China southern power grid

As the main carrier of natural resources into energy, the power industry is the world's largest carbon emitter, and its sustainable development will have far-reaching impacts on the utilization of natural resources and economic growth. Carbon trading market is a widely used tool to promote proactive emissions reductions in the electricity industry in different regions. On this basis, inter-provincial trading in the power industry creates a hidden carbon transfer between producers and consumers of energy resources. Therefore, it is necessary to construct systematic multi-period emission reduction measures to deal with the conflict and coordination of the operation of the two systems. In this study, to promote orderly emission reductions in the power industry in areas with different natural resource endowments, a two-tier decision-making model for carbon allowances allocation based on interactive model predictive control technique is constructed. The model readjustss the overall allowances by tracking the implied carbon transfer flows between regions and implementing a production-oriented allowance compensation mechanism, forming an optimisation strategy for carbon compliance cost and emission intensity in the power sector. The experimental results show that adjusting the regional allowance distribution in inter-provincial transmission can alleviate the impact of high emission reduction pressure on the overall carbon compliance cost, while the rolling horizon optimisation of the carbon baseline value can approach the expected emission reduction target in stages. Taking the Southern Power Grid as an example, this study ultimately provides policy recommendations for sustainable emission reductions under multi-period inter-provincial trade in energy resources.

A machine learning approach to analysis of Canadian provincial power system decarbonization

Canada committed to reducing national greenhouse gas emissions by 40–45 % by 2030 and achieving net-zero by 2050, relying on low-carbon electrification across economic sectors. This study investigates the machine learning’s potential to analyze least-cost optimization of Canadian provincial power systems to 2050, to identify robust pathways for net-zero electricity system greenhouse gas emissions, and to provide policy insights respecting wind and solar generation, reducing emissions from natural gas generation, and expanding interprovincial transmission. Surrogate modeling is applied as sensitivities to generation technology capital costs, electricity demand, and carbon pricing to results from an existing capacity expansion mixed-integer linear optimization model. Under almost all future scenarios, six provinces develop new wind generation, with substantial deployment in Alberta (mean 27.3 GW, max. 62.7 GW), Ontario (mean 6.8 GW, max. 19.3 GW), Saskatchewan (mean 3.6 GW, max 8.9 GW) and Manitoba (mean 1.5 GW, max 3.5 GW). With the potential exception of BC, where higher-cost wind generation results in solar generation becoming the primary low-carbon electrical energy source (mean 25.2 GW), future solar generation across Canada is more limited (mean 37.1 GW) and less certain than wind generation in all other Canadian provinces. Existing natural gas generation is maintained in almost all scenarios in all provinces, providing support for maintaining these resources for reliability and reserve requirements. Very limited natural gas is developed under any scenarios, with the exception of British Columbia (mean 4.3 GW) where more than 80 % of scenarios include new natural gas capacity. Additional transmission transfer capacity is developed in most scenarios between BC-Alberta (∼60 % of scenarios), Saskatchewan-Manitoba (∼85 %), and Ontario-Quebec (∼75 %). Carbon prices, along with wind and solar capital costs, act as primary determinants of least-cost decarbonization pathways. These findings offer insights for Canadian policymakers into net-zero pathways for provincial electricity systems that remain robust despite variability in inputs.

Genomic surveillance and evolutionary dynamics of type 2 porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in China spanning the African swine fever outbreak.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) poses a serious threat to the pig industry in China. Our previous study demonstrated that PRRSV persists with local circulations and overseas imports in China and has formed a relatively stable epidemic pattern. However, the sudden African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in 2018 caused serious damage to China's pig industry structure, which resulted in about 40 per cent of pigs being slaughtered. The pig yields recovered by the end of 2019. Thus, whether the ASF outbreak reframed PRRSV evolution with changes in pig populations and further posed new threats to the pig industry becomes a matter of concern. For this purpose, we conducted genomic surveillance and recombination, NSP2 polymorphism, population dynamics, and geographical spread analysis of PRRSV-2, which is dominant in China. The results showed that the prevalence of ASF had no significant effects on genetic diversities like lineage composition, recombination patterns, and NSP2 insertion and deletion patterns but was likely to lead to changes in PRRSV-2 recombination frequency. As for circulation of the two major sub-lineages of Lineage 1, there was no apparent transmission of NADC30-like among provinces, while NADC34-like had obvious signs of inter-provincial transmission and foreign importation during the ASF epidemic. In addition, two suspected vaccine recombinant epidemic strains suggest a slight safety issue of vaccine use. Herein, the interference of ASF to the PRRSV-2 evolutionary pattern was evaluated and vaccine safety was analyzed, in order to monitor the potential threat of PRRSV-2 to China's pig industry in the post-epidemic era of ASF.

Can inter-provincial transmission reduce regional carbon emissions? Evidence from China

Plagued by worsening pollution in load centers along the eastern coastal regions such as Beijing-Tianjin -Hebei, China is reducing local coal-fired power plants in those regions and relying more on inter-regional power transmission. In recent years, China has accelerated the construction of the West-East Electricity Transmission Project and planned and constructed a number of Ultra-high Voltage (UHV) transmission lines. However, how the impact of inter-regional transmission on carbon emissions needs empirical verification. This paper aims to study the carbon emission reduction effect of inter-regional transmission under nested models of the spatial econometric model for panel data. The empirical results show that although the non-dynamic spatial econometric analysis can find the carbon emission reduction effect of inter-provincial transmission, the long-term effect obtained by the dynamic spatial econometric analysis indicates that the inter-provincial transmission can bring about a slight increase in carbon emissions. The inter-provincial power transmission needs to be supported by sustainable share growth of renewable energy to achieve the targeted mitigation of carbon emissions.

A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage

Decarbonized power systems are critical to mitigate climate change, yet methods to achieve a reliable and resilient near-zero power system are still under exploration. This study develops an hourly power system simulation model considering high-resolution geological constraints for carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage to explore the optimal solution for a reliable and resilient near-zero power system. This is applied to 31 provinces in China by simulating 10,450 scenarios combining different electricity storage durations and interprovincial transmission capacities, with various shares of abated fossil power with carbon-capture-utilization-and-storage. Here, we show that allowing up to 20% abated fossil fuel power generation in the power system could reduce the national total power shortage rate by up to 9.0 percentages in 2050 compared with a zero fossil fuel system. A lowest-cost scenario with 16% abated fossil fuel power generation in the system even causes 2.5% lower investment costs in the network (or $16.8 billion), and also increases system resilience by reducing power shortage during extreme climatic events.

Worldwide transmission of ST11-KL64 carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae: an analysis of publicly available genomes.

ST11-KL64 is an internationally distributed lineage of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae and is the most common type in China. The international and interprovincial (in China) transmission of ST11-KL64 CRKP remains to be elucidated. We used both static clusters defined based on a fixed cutoff of ≤21 pairwise single-nucleotide polymorphisms and dynamic groups defined by modeling the likelihood to be linked by a transmission threshold to investigate the transmission of ST11-KL64 strains based on genome sequences mining. We analyzed all publicly available genomes (n = 730) of ST11-KL64 strains, almost all of which had known carbapenemase genes with KPC-2 being dominant. We identified 4 clusters of international transmission and 14 clusters of interprovincial transmission across China of ST11-KL64 strains. We found that dynamic grouping could provide further resolution for determining clonal relatedness in addition to the widely adopted static clustering and therefore increases the confidence for inferring transmission.IMPORTANCECarbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) is a serious challenge for clinical management and is prone to spread in and between healthcare settings. ST11-KL64 is the dominant CRKP type in China with a worldwide distribution. Here, we used two different methods, the widely used clustering based on a fixed single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) cutoff and the recently developed grouping by modeling transmission likelihood, to mine all 730 publicly available ST11-KL64 genomes. We identified international transmission of several strains and interprovincial transmission in China of a few, which warrants further investigations to uncover the mechanisms for their spread. We found that static clustering based on ≤21 fixed SNPs is sensitive to detect transmission and dynamic grouping has higher resolutions to provide complementary information. We suggest the use of the two methods in combination for analyzing transmission of bacterial strains. Our findings highlight the need of coordinated actions at both international and interprovincial levels for tackling multi-drug resistant organisms.

Epidemiological characteristics of leprosy during the period 2005-2020: A retrospective study based on the Chinese surveillance system.

Jiangsu Province is located in the Yangtze River Delta region, with a total area of 107,200 square kilometers. Since 1949, over 55,000 cases have been registered, with Taixing accounting for the highest number of patients. The proportion of new cases with MB and G2D was higher compared to other regions. As a result, Jiangsu has been considered a priority area for public health interventions in China. This paper mainly described the population, time, and spatial distribution of the newly detected leprosy cases in Jiangsu Province between 2005 and 2020. In this study, all the data were entered into Microsoft Excel and SPSS for the descriptive analysis. ArcGIS was applied to create statistical maps, and Geoda was used to conduct spatial autocorrelation analysis with local Moran's I statistics (LISA). The epidemiological data were obtained from LEPMIS. In addition, population data were obtained from the Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu Province. During the study period, 363 new cases were reported. Of these, 232 were men and 131 were women (1.77:1). The mean age at diagnosis was 60.56 years, and no adolescent cases were identified. Three hundred and twenty-seven (90.08%) were diagnosed with MB and 36 (9.92%) with PB. 31.68% (115/363) of the patients presented with G2D. Farmers accounted for 74.9%, and most cases were identified in skin clinics (248, 68.32%). We observed a decreasing trend in detection rate, with a higher concentration of new cases diagnosed between July and October. Spatial analysis showed that the new cases were primarily distributed in the northwest of Jiangsu province, and Suqian has the highest incidence of leprosy. Special attention should be paid to Wuzhong, a county with a potential risk of inter-provincial transmission. Furthermore, 55 new cases came from other Chinese provinces but lived in Jiangsu. The NCDR of leprosy decreased, but the new cases showed disabilities, a sign of the late diagnosis. The results indicated that some regions were still suffering from the burden of leprosy. Thus, we recommend that the government should adopt effective strategies to promote leprosy control. The main priorities for eliminating new cases were to provide sustainable financial support, improve the quality of clinical services, strengthen preventive intervention and rehabilitation services for disabilities, provide health education among high-risk populations, and explore new approaches.

The development of renewable energy industry under renewable portfolio standards: From the perspective of provincial resource differences

A low-carbon energy policy is an effective measure for promoting the development of renewable energy(RE). China has introduced renewable portfolio standards(RPS) and voluntary subscription for tradable green certificates(TGCs), but the market response is not significant. China's electricity trading functions at provincial-level regions, and there are differences in resources between the provinces. New policies need to consider the characteristics of each province to reduce market implementation risk for introduction and implementation. Therefore, based on the provincial characteristics of energy resource endowment in China, we construct a system dynamics(SD) model of the coupling of the RE market, consumption above quota(CAQ), and TGC market based on the structure of the sending-end grid(SG) and receiving-end grid(RG). Three types of TGC models were designed based on the scope of the TGC market. Finally, the impact of policy parameters such as the RPS target, inter-provincial transmission capacity, TGC validity period, and technology cost on the development of RE industries in both SG and RG was analyzed. The results show that the TGC market to be developed independently in various provinces in the initial stage and later expanded into a unified market. Increased RPS requirements, increased inter-provincial transmission capacity, and lower RE costs can enhance policy implementation.

The cost effectiveness of new reservoir hydroelectricity: British Columbia’s Site C project

Large-scale, reservoir hydroelectric facilities can play an important role in decarbonizing the electricity sector. However, new hydroelectric facilities are costly, and several recent projects in Canada have been subject to cost over-runs. In this paper, we develop a methodology for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of new reservoir hydroelectric projects. We apply this methodology to a case study of the Site C hydroelectric project currently under construction in British Columbia, Canada. Our approach makes use of a purpose-built linear programming capacity expansion and dispatch model, resolved at an hourly frequency and incorporating detailed treatment of balancing area requirements, available wind and solar resources, watershed constraints on hydroelectric potential, and endogenous electricity trade. Our simulations reveal that the value of the Site C project is unlikely to exceed its total cost, and only exceeds the avoidable cost of project cancellation in scenarios where BC and Alberta build additional inter-provincial transmission capacity and aim for 100% decarbonization of their electricity systems. Site C provides a cautionary tale for policymakers and planners pursuing large hydro-electric projects. Potential cost over-runs can render large hydroelectric projects uneconomic relative to alternatives. The decision to complete the Site C project is only justified by its high sunk costs.

Understanding the transmission dynamics of a large-scale measles outbreak in Southern Vietnam

ObjectivesSouthern Vietnam experienced a large measles outbreak of over 26,000 cases during 2018-2020. We aimed to understand and quantify the measles spread in space-time dependence and the transmissibility during the outbreak. MethodsMeasles surveillance reported cases between January 2018 and June 2020, vaccination coverage, and population data at provinicial level were used. To illustrate the spatio-temporal pattern of disease spread, we employed the endemic-epidemic multivariate time series model decomposing measles risk additively into autoregressive, spatio-temporal, and endemic components. Likelihood-based estimation procedures were performed to determine the time-varying reproductive number Re of measles. ResultsOur analysis showed that the incidence of measles was associated with vaccination coverage heterogeneity and spatial interaction between provincial units. The risk of infections was dominated by between-province transmission (36.1% to 78.8%), followed by local endogenous transmission (4.1% to 61.5%). In contrast, the endemic behavior had a relatively small contribution (2.4% to 33.4%) across provinces. In the exponential phase of the epidemic, Re was above the threshold with a maximum value of 2.34 (95% CI: 2.20-2.46). ConclusionLocal vaccination coverage and human mobility are important factors contributing to the measles dynamics in Southern Vietnam, and the high risk of inter-provincial transmission is of most concern. Strengthening the disease surveillance is recommended, and further research is essential to understand the relative contribution of population immunity and control measures in measles epidemics.

Study on inter-provincial transmission model based on new energy

With the increasing proportion of new energy into the power grid, environmental management and energy supply issues are becoming more and more prominent. In the current severe environment and energy situation, high-quality development of new energy and rational allocation of energy has become an urgent problem to be solved. In China, some regions are rich in clean energy resources, such as wind and solar energy. New Energy can not be absorbed on the spot. In view of this, on the premise of satisfying the security and stability of the power grid and the efficient operation of the transmission channel, the wind-fire combined transmission mode is proposed, the interests of all parties involved in the cross-provincial transaction are analyzed, and the inter-provincial transmission model is constructed, effectively relieves the pressure of the abandoned wind power and the abandoned nest power.

Agricultural Water Use Efficiency: Is There Any Spatial Correlation between Different Regions?

Affected by global climate change and water shortages, food security continues to be challenged. Improving agricultural water use efficiency is essential to guarantee food security. China has been suffering from water scarcity for a long time, and insufficient water supply in the agricultural sector has seriously threatened regional food security and sustainable development. This study adopted the super-efficiency slack-based model (SBM) to measure the provincial agricultural water use efficiency (AWUE). Then, we applied the vector autoregression (VAR) Granger causality test and social network analysis (SNA) method to explore the spatial correlation of AWUE between different provinces and reveal the interprovincial transmission mechanism of spillover effects in AWUE. The results show the following: (1) In China, the provincial AWUE was significantly enhanced, and the gaps in provincial AWUE have widened in the past 20 years. (2) There were apparent spatial heterogeneity and correlations of provincial AWUE. The provinces with higher AWUE were mainly located in economically developed and coastal areas. (3) The correlation of AWUE between provinces showed significant network structure characteristics. Fujian, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Hubei Qinghai were central to the network, with high centrality. (4) The AWUE spatial correlation network could be divided into four blocks. Each block played a different role in the cross-provincial transmission of spillover effects. Therefore, it is necessary to manage the agricultural water resources and improve water use efficiency from the perspective of the network.

Canada’s carbon energy overhang

Canada’s historical legal framework for hydrocarbon development persists, creating a ‘carbon energy overhang’ that impedes the transition to a low-carbon economy on which Canadian governments have embarked. As a result, Canada remains a petro-state, the fourth largest global oil producer with the third largest reserves. There have been greenhouse gas emission reduction initiatives, particularly by the federal government, including a national carbon tax (that survived constitutional challenge), renewable energy initiatives, energy transition legislation establishing net zero goals, and a promised cap on oil and gas industry emissions. However, two major barriers remain, notably (1) the national economic importance of the oil and gas industry with its oil sands centrepiece, located mainly in the province of Alberta; and (2) very limited room to cut electricity generation emissions, with over 80 per cent of electricity already produced by renewables and nuclear, and a lack of interprovincial transmission interties with these renewable electricity (mainly hydro)-producing provinces that export large quantities of energy to the United States.

Heterogeneous Spatial Effects of FDI on CO2 Emissions in China

AbstractAs the world’s largest CO2 emitter, China’s emission reduction is the key to mitigating global climate change. Global investment capital, as a significant influencing factor of emissions, greatly contributes to China’s economic growth and stimulates frequent interprovincial trade since the reform and opening. However, the spatial correlation of foreign investment and CO2 emissions across Chinese provinces is rarely considered. This paper explores the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in emission reduction in China during 2004–2015 using the spatial Durbin economic models with two‐way fixed effects. Then, the partial differential equations decomposition of the local and spatial spillover effects is conducted for capturing the marginal effects of influencing factors. Results show that FDI contributes to emission reduction for the whole country, whereas interprovincial transmission and intra‐provincial transmission show significant heterogeneity. Specifically, FDI increases emissions in host areas, while FDI provides positive environmental externalities to adjacent areas through spatial spillovers. Our findings provide a new perspective to explain the coexistence of the “Pollution Haven” and “Pollution Halo” theories in a country. Also, the exploration of spatial spillover effects of FDI on emissions can provide a reference for other countries with rising trade and investment flows to promote collaborative emission reduction.

Epidemiology and Molecular Transmission Characteristics of HIV in the Capital City of Anhui Province in China

Hefei, Anhui province, is one of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta, where many people migrate to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. High migration also contributes to the HIV epidemic. This study explored the HIV prevalence in Hefei to provide a reference for other provinces and assist in the prevention and control of HIV in China. A total of 816 newly reported people with HIV in Hefei from 2017 to 2020 were recruited as subjects. HIV subtypes were identified by a phylogenetic tree. The most prevalent subtypes were CRF07_BC (41.4%), CRF01_AE (38.1%) and CRF55_01B (6.3%). Molecular networks were inferred using HIV-TRACE. The largest and most active transmission cluster was CRF55_01B in Hefei’s network. A Chinese national database (50,798 sequences) was also subjected to molecular network analysis to study the relationship between patients in Hefei and other provinces. CRF55_01B and CRF07_BC-N had higher clustered and interprovincial transmission rates in the national molecular network. People with HIV in Hefei mainly transmitted the disease within the province. Finally, we displayed the epidemic trend of HIV in Hefei in recent years with the dynamic change of effective reproductive number (Re). The weighted overall Re increased rapidly from 2012 to 2015, with a peak value of 3.20 (95% BCI, 2.18–3.85). After 2015, Re began to decline and remained stable at around 1.80. In addition, the Re of CRF55_01B was calculated to be between 2.0 and 4.0 in 2018 and 2019. More attention needs to be paid to the rapid spread of CRF55_01B and CRF07_BC-N strains among people with HIV and the high Re in Hefei. These data provide necessary support to guide the targeted prevention and control of HIV.

Optimization of long-distance and large-scale transmission of renewable hydrogen in China: Pipelines vs. UHV

The reverse distribution of renewable energy resources and load centers makes exploring the optimal transmission mode of long-distance and large-scale renewable hydrogen the key to solving the bottleneck of renewable hydrogen development. This study incorporates hydrogen pipeline (HGP), natural gas pipeline (NGP), and Ultra High Voltage (UHV) into an optimal planning model framework and analyzes the optimal transmission mode, quantity, network, and cost of large-scale renewable hydrogen in China. Constructing a sensitivity analysis framework, this study also investigates the optimal transmission mode changes under different scenarios. The results show that the optimal mode of large-scale renewable hydrogen transmission in the province is NGP, and 5.4% of supply level is the critical point to export renewable hydrogen inter-provincially. It switches to the combination of NGP and HGP when the unit transmission costs of these elements decrease to a certain proportion simultaneously or switches to HGP when the unit transmission cost of HGP decreases more than that of NGP. The complementary transmission mode of NGP and UHV is the optimal mode for inter-provincial transmission, and the HGP can be put into use for inter-provincial transmission only when the unit transmission cost of which is reduced to less than 25%. Jilin is the key node in the NGP network, and Tibet and Gansu are the key nodes in UHV network, and the participation or absence of which will have significant impact on the renewable hydrogen transmission system. Only minor adjustments to the transmission technical parameters of NGP or HGP can promote the qualitative overflight of the optimal transmission volume of them so as to achieve the target optimization at the minimum cost.

Efficient deployment of solar photovoltaic stations in China: An economic and environmental perspective

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have developed rapidly in China, and the issues on where to locate the solar PV stations become critical. In some provinces, the markets are already saturated, and even solar energy curtailment has occurred due to oversupply. Thus, depicting an efficient deployment picture of the solar PV stations in China is in urgent need. To explore this issue, a profit-maximizing model is proposed to optimize the allocation of solar PV stations and interprovincial transmission strategies. The profit of solar PV stations in each province/municipality is evaluated from both economic and environmental perspectives. The economic performance is evaluated by net present value and levelized cost of energy, and the environmental benefits refer to the abatement of CO2 emissions. The results show that the northwestern and northeastern regions are not suitable to further develop solar PV systems in recent years, while the developed regions including the Yangtze River Delta, Tianjin, Beijing, and Guangdong should be encouraged to deploy more solar PV systems, especially the distributed solar photovoltaics for the commercial/industrial sectors. In 2020, the newly-added installed capacity in Zhejiang, Shandong, Beijing, and Henan is supposed to excess 8500 MW.

Calculation Method and Application of Inter-Regional and Inter-Provincial Market Trading Space for Promoting the Consumption of Clean Energy

Inter-provincial market trading is putting up with to implement the national energy strategy, increasing clean energy consuming and optimization energy allocation in large-scale. To promote energy consumption, the inter-province power transmission channel’ potential needs to be full excavate to deal with clean energy fluctuation, improving trading frequency and reduce transaction period. This article puts up with an inter-province power market trading space calculation method to calculate the available power transmission ability of inter-provincial transmission channel, discovering transmission channel and releasing transaction space. Besides, for certain transmission channel or supply-demand province’s electricity requirements, the calculation method can explore the trading market space, organizing clean energy evacuation to improve transmission channel utilization and safety checking pass rates, reducing blocking.

Energy & Environmental Policy Trends: Is the Site C Project Worth Its Growing Price Tag?

British Columbia’s Site C dam is under scrutiny, yet again. The provincial NDP government, long sceptical about the dam (approved by a previous Liberal government) has been re-elected, the project has already been granted a budget increase and new issues are likely to increase the costs even further. Our analysis shows that completion of the dam now only makes sense if Alberta and British Columbia 1) cooperate on new interprovincial transmission and 2) set ambitious decarbonization goals.