Inter-provincial Panel Data Research Articles

O impacto do desenvolvimento agrícola na eficiência agro-ecológica da China: evidência sob a perspectiva de escala e estrutura

ABSTRACT: Promoting the agricultural sustainable development is one of the core objectives of agricultural comprehensive development (ACD), and the core of agricultural sustainable development lies in enhancing agro-ecological efficiency (AEE). Based on inter-provincial panel data from 2003-2017, the AEE was measured by a unexpected super-efficient SBM model. From the perspective of investment scale and investment structure, the impact of investment scale in ACD on AEE was examined using a panel econometric model, then characterizing the investment structure by the proportion of government funds in the investment of ACD, examining the non-linear relationship between investment structure of ACD and AEE seeking a reasonable proportion of government expenditure. Finally, a spatial econometric model was constructed to test the spatial spillover effect of the scale and structure of investment in ACD on AEE. Results showed that: (i) AEE of China is on the rise overall, but the efficiency level is still low and there is large scope for improvement. (ii) Due to the inefficient use of funds and the lag in the transformation of agricultural benefits, the scale of investment in ACD has a significant negative impact on AEE in the current period. (iii) The impact of investment structure of ACD on AEE presents a significant “inverted N” relationship, and the optimal proportion of government fund investment structure is 76.71%. The reasonable structure of investment in ACD at different food functional areas shows differences. (iv) After considering the spatial effect, the impact of ACD remains robust, but the spatial spillover effect prolongs the time lag of this impact of investment scale and starts to have a positive impact in the 2nd year after the investment. Guarantee the investment scale in ACD, reduce financial redundancy, establish a cooperation mechanism between ACD and agricultural ecological protection in neighboring areas, and increase the introduction of private capital can achieve sustainable development of agricultural economy.

Multiple Regression Analysis of the Impact of Command Environmental Regulation on Mining Industry Structure Based on Stata Software

In this paper, the inter-provincial panel data of 30 provinces (excluding Xizang) from 2006 to 2017 are selected, the adjustment of the mining industry structure is taken as the explained variable, and the command type environmental regulation, technological innovation, foreign direct investment, enterprise access, mineral resource endowment and market demand are taken as explanatory variables to build a multiple regression analysis model. And stata15.0 software is used to analyze the influence of the command environmental regulation on the adjustment of the mining industry structure, and then put forward the relevant suggestions to optimize the command environmental regulation.

Can outward foreign direct investment improve China's green economic efficiency?

Under the constraints of energy and environment, improving green economic efficiency (GEE) has become the key path to promote the sustainable economic development. Among the driving factors of GEE, the role of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) is worth exploring. In this paper, we adopt the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2011 to 2019 and System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) to explore the influence of OFDI on GEE. We find that OFDI significantly improves China's GEE, and reverse technology spillover through direct investment in developed countries is an important way for OFDI to promote GEE. Regional heterogeneity test shows that OFDI significantly promotes GEE in eastern China; however, the promotion effect is not significant in midwestern China. Besides, the promoting effect of OFDI on GEE has been further improved after 2016. We further adopt panel threshold model and find that when the financial development (FD) and human capital (HUM) exceeds 2.0954 and 0.0290, respectively, the promoting effects of OFDI on GEE are greatly enhanced. We suppose that the above conclusions can provide guidance for policymakers to optimize OFDI and improve GEE.

Industrial digitization and synergy between pollution and carbon emissions control: new empirical evidence from China.

Industrial digital transformation is a key engine to help developing countries reduce pollution and carbon emissions. We used the composite system synergy model (CSSM) and modified entropy weight method to measure the degree of synergy between pollution and carbon emissions control (SPCEC) and the level of industrial digitization in each province and city based on the Chinese inter-provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. We then used the two-way fixed effects and panel quantile regression models to test the heterogeneous influence of industrial digitization on the SPCEC. We found that: (1) industrial digitization had a positive contribution to the SPCEC. (2) Digitization of industry contributes more to the SPCEC level than the digitization of agriculture and services. (3) The promotion of SPCEC by industrial digitization is significant in the western region, but not in the eastern, central and northeastern regions. (4) In provinces and municipalities with lower level of SPCEC, the contribution of industrial digitization to the SPCEC is higher. This paper reveals the impact of industrial digitization on the SPCEC and can provide a policy reference for the realization of the SPCEC from the perspective of the integration of industry and digitization.

Study on the synergistic effect of air pollution prevention and carbon emission reduction in the context of "dual carbon": Evidence from China's transport sector

The transportation sector has significantly contributed to greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. Based on the Kaya constant equation and the LMDI decomposition model, A synergistic reduction effect model of transportation tailpipe Environmental negative externalities emissions is constructed to adopt the inter-provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2019. The synergistic reduction emission impact and indirect drivers between air pollution and carbon emission are analyzed. The results show that the drivers of the synergistic impact are mainly energy efficiency and industrial structure. Significant synergistic emission reduction effects exist in eastern China, western China, medium-sized transportation markets, and less developed tourism regions. Further, increasing environmental regulation can improve the synergistic reduction impact of the transportation sector's air pollutants and carbon emissions. This paper provides theoretical support for winning the battle of pollution prevention and control and achieving the "dual carbon" goal in the new era.

The Influence of Capital Deepening on Regional Economic Development Gap: The Intermediary Effect of the Labor Income Share

At the same time as economic development, the imbalance problem in regional economic development is prominent, which hinders sustainable economic development, especially in China. Explaining the causes of unbalanced regional economic development is an important scientific problem in current economic research. Here, this study takes China as the empirical research area and uses China’s inter-provincial panel data to deeply analyze the impact of capital deepening on the regional economic development gap. As indicated by this study, after a series of potential factors (e.g., industrial proportion, foreign direct investment, and per capita GDP) of the regional development gap are controlled, the capital deepening measured using perpetual inventory can have a strong explanatory power for the regional development gap, i.e., the greater the value of capital deepening, the more significant the regional development gap will be. According to the above conclusion, the effect arising from capital deepening on the regional development gap is still significant, even after the Soviet Aid Project is employed as the current instrumental variable of capital deepening, as well as after the data from the world sample are estimated The study further finds that capital deepening does not directly affect the regional development gap but indirectly affects the regional development gap by affecting the labor income share. Therefore, a higher labor share can narrow the regional development gap.

How does the construction of China’s ecological civilization affect the health burden of urban and rural residents?

Accelerating the construction of ecological civilization and promoting the management of health environment problems is one of the core elements of the implementation of the “Beautiful China” and “Healthy China” strategies with Chinese characteristics in the new era. Based on the scientific connotation of ecological civilization, this paper systematically assesses the level of interprovincial ecological civilization construction in China using the combined CRITIC empowerment method and explores the impact of ecological civilization construction on the health burden of urban and rural residents using interprovincial panel data from 2003 to 2018 with the help of panel feasible generalized least squares, simultaneous equation estimation, and the extended regression model. It is found that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between provincial ecological civilization construction and urban and rural residents’ economic health burden, as well as a significant U-shaped relationship between ecological civilization construction and urban and rural residents’ disease burden. Fiscal decentralization, urbanization, and industrialization are the three important indirect mechanisms through which ecological civilization affects the health burden of urban and rural residents, and fiscal decentralization plays a typical role in crowding out the health effect of ecological civilization. In the eastern and central regions, ecological civilization construction has effectively reduced the health burden of urban and rural residents, but it is more significant for improving the economic health burden of rural residents. While the “catching-up trend” of the progress of ecological civilization construction in the western region is obvious, ecological civilization plays an important role in alleviating the economic health burden of urban residents. After the robustness test, the conclusion still holds. This study provides an important empirical basis for local governments to improve the accuracy of their policies in promoting the “Beautiful China” and “Healthy China” strategies.

Have public environmental appeals inspired green total factor productivity? empirical evidence from Baidu Environmental Search Index.

Literatures focus on whether formal environmental regulatory policies can effectively stimulate green total factor productivity (GTFP), but generally ignore the role of informal institutions such as public environmental appeals. This paper uses inter-provincial panel data and Non-Radial Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model to measure GTFP. With the Baidu Environmental Search Index presenting the public environmental appeals, the dynamic panel System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) and Differenced Generalized Method of Moments (DIFF-GMM) methods are used to explore the effect, transmission mechanism and conditions of the public's environmental demands on green total factor productivity. The study concludes that public environmental appeals are beneficial to improve GTFP, and this result still holds after endogenous and robustness tests. The mechanism results show that the green technology innovation effect is an important mechanism for public environmental appeals to improve GTFP. In addition, public environmental appeals of different pollutants and different locations have heterogeneous effects on GTFP. In addition, the public wealth level, human capital level, and government institutional environment play an important role in the impact of public environmental appeals on GTFP.

How does artificial intelligence development affect green technology innovation in China? Evidence from dynamic panel data analysis.

As the global climate problem becomes increasingly serious, the green technology innovation to achieve "carbon peak and carbon neutral" has gradually become the global consensus of major countries, and how the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology affects green technology innovation (GTI) has received a great deal of attention in the field of economics. Therefore, based on China's inter-provincial panel data from 2006 to 2019, the system GMM, dynamic panel threshold model, and quantile regression model were constructed to examine various influences of AI development on GTI under different environmental regulation intensity, research and development (R&D) investment, and institutional environmental threshold conditions. The findings presented that AI development significantly contributes to GTI and GTFP, with an impact coefficient of 0.0122 and 0.0084, and this influence is mainly reflected in the western region of China and is more obvious in the 2006-2012 period. AI development mainly enhances green technological efficiency, and it has dampening effects on green technological progress during the period 2013-2019. Additionally, there are non-linear threshold effects in the relationship between the level of AI development and GTI when environmental regulatory intensity, R&D investment, and institutional environment are in different level intervals. AI development will boost GTI only when the intensity of environmental regulation and institutional environment is above a certain threshold value. However, the AI development represented by industrial robot applications still has no obvious effect on GTI even when the R&D investment exceeds a certain threshold. Furthermore, the growth effect of AI development on GTI indicates a decreasing nonlinear pattern as the GTI's quantile rises under the condition that R&D investment and institutional environment intensity cross the threshold, while this growth effect increases gradually with the rise of GTI's quantile when the environmental regulation is above the threshold.

Has the Newly Imposed Property Tax Controlled Housing Prices? An Analysis of China’s 2009–2020 Interprovincial Panel Data

The stability of the real-estate market is crucial to China’s economic development and, in times of crisis, the economy will experience systemic adverse reactions that require appropriate regulation by the state using tax policy tools. Therefore, we analyzed the impact of real-property tax on house prices using panel data for 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2020 using an empirical method, i.e., the instrumental variables approach. The empirical results show that each of the previous property-related taxes actually contributed to the increase in house prices and did not have a dampening effect. The newly introduced property tax will lead to a decline in house prices, which will help to alleviate the overheating of real-estate investment and mitigate the real-estate bubble crisis. A rational view of the impact of a property tax on housing prices needs to be taken in the context of factors such as income levels, consumer price levels, loan rates, and Chinese consumer culture. In order to achieve the goal of “no speculation in housing”, we also need to pay attention to the regulating effect of a property tax in combination with many other factors. This study is important for promoting property tax reform, curbing overheated real-estate investment, and promoting healthy economic development.

The Effect of Heterogeneous Environmental Regulations on Carbon Emission Efficiency of the Grain Production Industry: Evidence from China’s Inter-Provincial Panel Data

Examining the impact of heterogeneous environmental regulations on the carbon emission efficiency of the grain production industry will help to provide a theoretical basis and decision-making reference for achieving the goal of carbon peaking and sustainable agricultural development. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China, the DEA-SBM method was used to measure the grain production industry’s carbon emission efficiency from 2011 to 2019. Separating environmental regulations into formal environmental regulations and informal environmental regulations in two parts, then the two-way fixed effect model, threshold effect model, and intermediary effect model are used to test the influence of heterogeneous environmental regulations on the grain production industry’s carbon emission efficiency. The results show that: (1) the grain production industry’s carbon emission efficiency continues to improve but still has space for improvement. (2) the relationship between formal environmental regulations and the grain production industry’s carbon emission efficiency exhibits a “U-shaped” curve; informal environmental regulations have a significantly positive effect on improving the grain production industry’s carbon emission efficiency. The conclusion is still valid after the robustness test. (3) A threshold mechanism test found that there is a single threshold effect between the formal environmental regulations and the grain production industry’s carbon emission efficiency, but it does not cross the “U” inflection point. (4) there is a “U” shaped non-linear mediating effect in the influence of formal environmental regulations on the grain production industry’s carbon emission efficiency; informal environmental regulations also have an intermediary transmission path of production agglomeration of the grain production industry. This study supplies a new perspective for promoting the grain production industry’s carbon emission efficiency.

Growth Trends and Heterogeneity of Total Factor Productivity in Nine Pan-PRD Provinces in China

As a national regional development strategy and a vital region of the Belt and Road Initiative, the sustainable development of the Pan-Pearl River Delta (Pan-PRD) region is of great importance. The national development plan emphasizes improving total factor productivity (TFP) and promoting high-quality economic development. This paper uses the DEA-Malmquist index model to measure the TFP of nine provinces in the Pan-PRD region based on inter-provincial panel data from 2003 to 2020. Furthermore, it analyzes its growth trend and heterogeneity characteristics in the inter-provincial spatial, industrial, and city dimensions. The results show that in the time dimension, TFP shows a W-shaped fluctuation trend, technical efficiency grows slowly, and technical progress is the pillar of TFP improvement. The spatial dimension shows a high distribution in the center and low distribution in the south. On the industry dimension, the TFP is in descending order as follows: tertiary industry—secondary industry—primary industry. The spatial distribution is heterogeneous, exacerbating the uneven economic development within the region, and the regional industrial structure needs urgent optimization. The spatial development of city TFP is uneven, and the number of cities with a TFP below 1 is increasing. Finally, we suggest policies to accelerate regional collaborative innovation, cultivate advantageous industrial clusters, create an advantageous industrial ecosystem, and achieve sustainable development in the Pan-PRD region.

Does natural resources matter for sustainable energy development in China: The role of technological progress

Sustainable development has become a development goal in more and more countries. As the world's largest energy consumer and producer, the challenge of reducing energy dependence and improving energy sustainability is becoming a challenge for China's economic development. This research validates the impact of natural resources, technological progress, and sustainable energy development and their mechanisms through theoretical and empirical analyses. The paper selects 30 interprovincial panel data in China from 2004 to 2019, taking each region of China as the research object. The results show that (1) Natural resources have a positive contribution to sustainable energy development. (2) Natural resources make a positive contribution to technological innovation and technological introduction. (3) Technological innovation has a positive contribution to sustainable energy development. The study proposes relevant policy recommendations to help provinces enhance their energy sustainability.

Influence of Rural Industrial Integration on Farmers’ Income in China

Abstract Rural transportation infrastructure is an important foundation for rural economic development and plays an important role in the process of rural industrial integration to increase farmers’ income. Based on China’s inter-provincial panel data from 2014 to 2019, this paper classifies rural transportation infrastructure from the perspective of external connection level, and empirically analyzes the role of the scale, type, and structure of rural transportation infrastructure in the process of rural industrial integration to increase farmers’ income. It is found that in China, rural industrial integration is conducive to increasing farmers’ income. In the process of rural industrial integration to increase farmers’ income, the overall scale of rural transportation infrastructure has played a synergistic role; Different types of rural transportation infrastructure play different roles. Township-village transportation infrastructure mainly shows synergy, while city-township transportation infrastructure mainly shows substitution. Optimizing rural transportation infrastructure structure is conducive to strengthening rural industrial integration and increasing farmers’ income. When the ratio of township-village and city-township transportation infrastructure scale is less than 1.921, rural industrial integration fails to increase farmers’ income; When the ratio of rural-village and urban-rural transportation infrastructure is between 1.921 and 7.808, the promotion of rural industrial integration on farmers’ income increase begins to be significant; When the ratio of rural-village to urban-rural transportation infrastructure is greater than 7.808, the promotion of rural industrial integration on farmers’ income will further increase.

Will the substitution of capital for labor increase the use of chemical fertilizer in agriculture? Analysis based on provincial panel data in China.

Major changes have taken place in the agricultural factor input structure in China, which will inevitably affect fertilizer input in agriculture. However, there is no consistent conclusion about the impact of capital and labor input on chemical fertilizer input. This paper employed directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to clarify the influence of capital-labor input structure on the use of chemical fertilizer. Using inter-provincial panel data, the dynamic panel system GMM method was adopted to examine the mechanism of factor substitution elasticity in determining the impact of agricultural capital-labor input on chemical fertilizer input. The results showed that agricultural labor and capital input are positively correlated with chemical fertilizer input. In the process of capital and labor input affecting fertilizer input, the elasticity of factor substitution plays a negative moderating role. From 1996 to 2018, the trend of capital replacing labor was evident, and the increase ratio of capital input was greater than the decrease ratio of labor input. Therefore, an increase in capital input and its substitution for labor is the main driver of the increase in fertilizer input. At the same time, the elasticity of fertilizer-capital substitution declined during the period 1996-2018, thereby reinforcing the increase in fertilizer input caused by the increase in capital input. In order to reduce agricultural pollution caused by the increase in chemical fertilizer input, it is crucial to reverse the declining trend in the elasticity of fertilizer capital substitution.

Effect of "green technology-institution" collaborative innovation on ecological efficiency-the moderating role of fiscal decentralization.

With the tightening of resource constraints and the proposal of the Chinese High-quality Development strategy, innovation-driven has emerged as a new option to balance economic progress with environmental protection. The paper takes Chinese inter-provincial panel data from 2007 to 2017 as a research sample and is based on a spatial Durbin model, investigating the association among green technology innovation (GTI), "green technology-institution" collaborative innovation, and ecological efficiency (EE), while fiscal decentralization is discussed as a moderating factor. According to the results, "green technology-institution" collaborative innovation is positively promoting ecological efficiency and causing spatial spillovers if the economic distance is taken into account. Compared with the single role of green technology innovation, collaborative innovation has a greater role in improving ecological efficiency. Among them, to improve ecological efficiency, it is best to develop green technology innovation and encourage production institutions in a coordinated manner. According to the moderating effect, fiscal decentralization moderates the impact of innovation collaboration on ecological efficiency in a negative way. Therefore, balancing the decentralization of local fiscal expenditures is important to promoting China's ecological efficiency. In addition, China should purposefully promote the degree of synergy between green technology innovation and related institutions for enhancing eco-efficiency.

The Effects of Environmental Regulation and Low-Carbon Logistics Capacity on the Level of New Urbanization in Six Central Provinces of China

The urbanization of a region is affected by the implementation of various policies, and to explore the specifics of the environmental regulation at today’s new level of urbanization, the increased logistics capacity of a region and the consequent carbon emissions must be the focus of our attention. For the values considered by the study, the six central provinces of China have obvious location advantages and urban–rural differences, so a static panel regression effect model was constructed based on the inter-provincial panel data of the six central provinces of China from 2005–2019, and the entropy weight method was applied to quantify the low-carbon logistics capacity and new urbanization level in the region. The model explores the relationship between environmental regulation, regional low-carbon logistics capabilities, and the level of new urbanization. The results of the study show that the levels of new urbanization in all six provinces are increasing rapidly, year on year. Environmental regulation has a positive impact on regional low-carbon logistics capabilities and the level of new urbanization, and environmental regulation promotes the improvement of the level of new urbanization through a significant positive impact on regional low-carbon logistics capabilities, and there is an intermediary conduction effect. This paper provides valuable reference suggestions for low carbon development and new urbanization in six central provinces through empirical research.

Bilateral effect of aging population on consumption structure: Evidence from China.

The deepening of aging population inevitably in China will exert a far-reaching influence on national consumption and economic transformation. Based on interprovincial panel data in 2000–2018, this paper measured the ratio of five survival and enjoyment consumptions in disposable incomes, reconstructed the indicators for upgrading the consumption structure, used the bilateral stochastic cutting-edge model, and decomposed the aging population to realize the net effect from the positive and negative effects generated by the consumption structure. The findings indicated that (1) aging population played a positive and negative bilateral effect on upgrading the consumption structure, in which the positive effect upgraded 14.04% of the consumption structure while the negative effect degraded 6.18% of the consumption structure. The comprehensive net effect upgraded 7.86% of the consumption structure. (2) From the perspective of the time effect, under the positive and negative effects of aging population, the consumption structure was upgraded 7.861% on average every year. (3) Regarding the regional effect, the promotion role of aging population was the highest in the eastern region, followed by the west. The middle was the lowest. By combining with estimation results of each province, the promotion role brought by aging population in the northeast and southwest was lower. Based on the above-mentioned research results, this paper proposed some advice for positively developing silver hair economy, promoting the improvement on the consumption structure according to circumstances, developing the perfect aging consumption market, exploring the consumption potential of the elderly, accelerating the urbanization development progress, and stimulating consumption growth relying on the Internet.

Financial Time Series Model Based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine Predictive Control Algorithm in Financial Market

China’s financial market also faces some outstanding problems, namely, obvious structural imbalance in the size of the financial market, on the one hand, the absolute dominance of the size of the indirect financing market, mainly the bank lending market and on the other hand, the imbalance in the size of the direct financing market and the indirect financing market. At the same time, there is also a structural imbalance of the financial market among regions in China. How to verify the objective existence of such structural imbalance in different regions and measure the difference in the level of financial market development among regions is the focus of this paper. This paper constructs a financial market development level indicator system from three dimensions, equity market, bond market, and lending market, and measures the financial market development level by using inter-provincial panel data from 2001 to 2020 through neural network algorithm, time series model, and support vector machine algorithm, and analyzes the regional heterogeneity of financial market development on this basis. The results show that the overall market level of the financial industry in the eastern coastal region of China is the highest, but the intra-regional differences are also the most obvious; the overall market level of the financial industry in the northeastern region of China is the lowest, and the differences with the eastern region rise significantly; the market level of the financial industry at the provincial level in the central and eastern regions shows an all-time decreasing trend, while the western and northeastern regions of China show a convergence, then divergence, and then convergence trend. Therefore, differentiated financial policies should be implemented according to the stage of regional development in order to enhance the financial development level of each economic region and gradually narrow the regional financial development gap.

The Effect of the Major-Grain-Producing-Areas Oriented Policy on Crop Production: Evidence from China

As a powerful actor in the global food system, China experienced a significant drop in crop production from 1998 to 2003, which posed a substantial threat to national food security and led to the establishment of 13 major grain-producing areas (MGPA). Although some qualitative research has found that the MGPA policy plays an important role in ensuring the national food security, quantitative evidence on the effect of the MGPA policy and its potential mechanism remains scarce. Based on China’s interprovincial panel data from 1998 to 2018, this study used a difference-in-differences (DD) estimation strategy to analyze the treatment effect of the MGPA policy by taking the assignment of 13 MGPA as a quasi-experiment. The results showed that the enforcement of the MGPA policy significantly increased crop production, especially in terms of grain, rice and wheat yields. The average grain yields were raised by 27.5%. The results of the event study analysis showed that the treatment effects were sustainable in the following years of the policy implementation. This study also explored alternative causal channels and found that the MGPA policy raised crop yields mainly by expanding planting areas, improving the level of mechanization and increasing transfer payments. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the MGPA policy in increasing crop production in a developing country setting, which could enlighten policymakers in some less well-developed countries on boosting crop production and maintaining food security.