Interplanetary Environment Research Articles

MEMPSEP‐I. Forecasting the Probability of Solar Energetic Particle Event Occurrence Using a Multivariate Ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks

AbstractThe Sun continuously affects the interplanetary environment through a host of interconnected and dynamic physical processes. Solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are among the key drivers of space weather in the near‐Earth environment and beyond. While some CMEs and flares are associated with intense SEPs, some show little to no SEP association. To date, robust long‐term (hours‐days) forecasting of SEP occurrence and associated properties (e.g., onset, peak intensities) does not effectively exist and the search for such development continues. Through an Operations‐2‐Research support, we developed a self‐contained model that utilizes a comprehensive data set and provides a probabilistic forecast for SEP event occurrence and its properties. The model is named Multivariate Ensemble of Models for Probabilistic Forecast of Solar Energetic Particles (MEMPSEP). MEMPSEP workhorse is an ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks that ingests a comprehensive data set (MEMPSEP‐III by Moreland et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003765)) of full‐disc magnetogram‐sequences and in situ data from different sources to forecast the occurrence (MEMPSEP‐I—this work) and properties (MEMPSEP‐II by Dayeh et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003697)) of a SEP event. This work focuses on estimating true SEP occurrence probabilities achieving a 2.5% improvement in reliability and a Brier score of 0.14. The outcome provides flexibility for the end‐users to determine their own acceptable level of risk, rather than imposing a detection threshold that optimizes an arbitrary binary classification metric. Furthermore, the model‐ensemble, trained to utilize the large class‐imbalance between events and non‐events, provides a clear measure of uncertainty in our forecast.

Solar Wind With Field Lines and Energetic Particles (SOFIE) Model: Application to Historical Solar Energetic Particle Events

AbstractIn this paper, we demonstrate the applicability of the data‐driven solar energetic particle (SEP) model, SOlar‐wind with FIeld‐lines and Energetic‐particles (SOFIE), to simulate the acceleration and transport processes of SEPs and make forecast of the energetic proton flux at energies ≥10 MeV that will be observed near 1 AU. The SOFIE model is built upon the Space Weather Modeling Framework developed at the University of Michigan. In SOFIE, the background solar wind plasma in the solar corona and interplanetary space is calculated by the Stream‐Aligned Aflvén Wave Solar‐atmosphere Model(‐Realtime) driven by the near‐real‐time hourly updated Global Oscillation Network Group solar magnetograms. In the background solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are launched by placing an force‐imbalanced magnetic flux rope on top of the parent active region, using the Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson‐Low model. The acceleration and transport processes are modeled by the Multiple‐Field‐Line Advection Model for Particle Acceleration. In this work, nine SEP events (Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment challenge/campaign events) are modeled. The three modules in SOFIE are validated and evaluated by comparing with observations, including the steady‐state background solar wind properties, the white‐light image of the CMEs, and the flux of solar energetic protons, at energies of ≥10 MeV.

Interplanetary Influence on Thermospheric Mass Density: Insights From Deep Learning Analyses

AbstractIn this study, the thermospheric mass density (TMD) features observed by the CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload between 2002 and 2010 were extracted using deep learning (DL) technology; the TMD features were then mapped and modeled with the Interplanetary environment information (IEI), solar radiation, and geomagnetic indices. The DL model was used to simulate the TMD features during Day of Year (DOY) 222–241 in 2014, a period that experienced complex solar‐terrestrial environmental variations. We explore the TMD features under different solar‐terrestrial environmental conditions and discuss the effects of various inputs by comparing the DL simulation results with satellite observations from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment‐A and Swarm‐A, as well as the simulation results from Jacchia‐Bowman 2008, Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter radar model 2.1, and Drag Temperature Model 2013. These results show that the DL model can better capture the TMD features after adding IEI. Part of these TMD features, including the high‐latitude TMD enhancement during the space hurricane event (DOY 232, 2014) and global TMD variations under complex solar‐terrestrial environmental disturbances (DOY 222–225, 2014), cannot be well described by the geomagnetic indices. The DL model indicates that the east‐west component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF By) has a great impact on TMD variations, and its modulation is different from the typical energy injection process during storms. Our results emphasize the crucial influence of IEI on TMD under both geomagnetic disturbances and quiet conditions.

SWOL2023: Report of Space Weather Observations Throughout Latinoamerica: Filling the Southern Gaps

AbstractThe “Space Weather Observations throughout Latinoamerica: Filling the Southern gaps” Workshop took place in Ushuaia, Argentina, from 2 to 4 October 2023. This event was exclusively dedicated to Space Weather (SWx), gathering leading international academic and governmental agencies focused on the subject. The meeting addressed the field of SWx from three perspectives: driving phenomena occurring in the solar atmosphere, evolution in the interplanetary environment, and interaction with the Earth. In addition, emphasis was placed on identifying key research directions in solar and space physics that warrant development in Argentina and across the region in the forthcoming years. The workshop also focused on the current observational infrastructure that supports SWx studies, and how to improve and develop it through strategic international partnerships, stressing on the need for real‐time data. The conference fostered discussion among different partners involved in SWx studies, that is, researchers and potential space weather service providers, and the need to include in this debate potential users of space weather services.

Heart Disease and Microgravity: The Dawn of a New Medical Era?: A Narrative Review.

After a decline in interest in space missions following the cessation of the Apollo missions, there has been a recent resurgence. Activities on the International Space Station have raised awareness of a positive resumption of space travel to more challenging destinations such as Mars and a possible adaptation of human life on the Moon. The biological and physiological studies conducted on these stations in low Earth orbit are crucial in familiarizing humanity with the potential problems that can arise during long journeys. Cosmic rays and microgravity are the 2 main negative phenomena in space flights. Microgravity in the interplanetary environment plays a special role in altering normal organic processes. These studies are compared to studies conducted on Earth with laboratory technologies that mimic the space environment. To date, the molecular and physiological adaptations of the human body to this unnatural environment are very poor. The aim of this review is therefore to provide an overview of the most important findings on the molecular and physiological anomalies that develop during microgravity in short and long space flights.

Interplanetary Student Nanospacecraft: Development of the LEO Demonstrator ESTCube-2

Nanosatellites have established their importance in low-Earth orbit (LEO), and it is common for student teams to build them for educational and technology demonstration purposes. The next challenge is the technology maturity for deep-space missions. The LEO serves as a relevant environment for maturing the spacecraft design. Here we present the ESTCube-2 mission, which will be launched onboard VEGA-C VV23. The satellite was developed as a technology demonstrator for the future deep-space mission by the Estonian Student Satellite Program. The ultimate vision of the program is to use the electric solar wind sail (E-sail) technology in an interplanetary environment to traverse the solar system using lightweight propulsion means. Additional experiments were added to demonstrate all necessary technologies to use the E-sail payload onboard ESTCube-3, the next nanospacecraft targeting the lunar orbit. The E-sail demonstration requires a high-angular velocity spin-up to deploy a tether, resulting in a need for a custom satellite bus. In addition, the satellite includes deep-space prototypes: deployable structures; compact avionics stack electronics (including side panels); star tracker; reaction wheels; and cold–gas propulsion. During the development, two additional payloads were added to the design of ESTCube-2, one for Earth observation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the other for corrosion testing in the space of thin-film materials. The ESTCube-2 satellite has been finished and tested in time for delivery to the launcher. Eventually, the project proved highly complex, making the team lower its ambitions and optimize the development of electronics, software, and mechanical structure. The ESTCube-2 team dealt with budgetary constraints, student management problems during a pandemic, and issues in the documentation approach. Beyond management techniques, the project required leadership that kept the team aware of the big picture and willing to finish a complex satellite platform. The paper discusses the ESTCube-2 design and its development, highlights the team’s main technical, management, and leadership issues, and presents suggestions for nanosatellite and nanospacecraft developers.

Simulation of Space Weathering on Asteroid Spectra through Hydrogen Ion Irradiation of Meteorites

Space weathering can be defined as the combination of physical and chemical changes that occur in material exposed to an interplanetary environment on the surface of airless bodies. This process results in alterations in material spectroscopic features. Eventually, it can lead to misinterpretation of remotely sensed data in the visible–near-infrared wavelength range. This study simulates the solar wind effect on asteroid spectra through low-energy 1 keV H+ irradiation of meteorite pressed-powder samples under three fluences, 2 × 1017, 5 × 1017, and 1 × 1018 H+ cm−2, and evaluates changes associated with reflectance spectra. The meteorites subjected to the study are Bjurböle (L/LL4), Avanhandava (H4), and Luotolax (howardite). The most prominent changes in all three meteorites are (1) a decrease of 550 nm reflectance, (2) reddening in the 1 μm region, and (3) a monotonous decrease in absorption band strengths in Bjurböle. No significant changes were observed in the 2 μm region. The results imply that at short timescales (102–103 yr), radiation damage as amorphization and vesicle formation caused by low-energy solar wind is the dominant space weathering factor in all three meteorite compositions, causing spectral changes predominantly in the 1 μm region.

Machine Learning-based Prediction of Sunspots using Fourier Transform Analysis of the Time Series

The study of solar activity holds special importance since the changes in our star’s behavior affect both the Earth’s atmosphere and the conditions of the interplanetary environment. They can interfere with air navigation, space flight, satellites, radar, high-frequency communications, and overhead power lines, and can even negatively influence human health. We present here a machine learning-based prediction of the evolution of the current sunspot cycle (solar cycle 25). First, we analyze the Fourier Transform of the total time series (from 1749 to 2022) to find periodicities with which to lag this series and then add attributes (predictors) to the forecasting models to obtain the most accurate result possible. Consequently, we build a trained model of the series considering different starting points (from 1749 to 1940, with 1 yr steps), applying Random Forests, Support Vector Machines, Gaussian Processes, and Linear Regression. We find that the model with the lowest error in the test phase (cycle 24) arises with Random Forest and with 1915 as the start year of the time series (yielding a Root Mean Squared Error of 9.59 sunspots). Finally, for cycle 25 this model predicts that the maximum number of sunspots (90) will occur in 2025 March.

Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (NSF)

Federal Grants & ContractsVolume 46, Issue 7 p. 3-4 Grant Alerts Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (NSF) First published: 01 March 2022 https://doi.org/10.1002/fgc.32240Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume46, Issue73 March 2022Pages 3-4 RelatedInformation

Dynamic Time Warping as a Means of Assessing Solar Wind Time Series

Abstract Over the last decades, international attempts have been made to develop realistic space weather prediction tools aiming to forecast the conditions on the Sun and in the interplanetary environment. These efforts have led to the development of appropriate metrics to assess the performance of those tools. Metrics are necessary to validate models, to compare different models, and to monitor the improvements to a certain model over time. In this work, we introduce dynamic time warping (DTW) as an alternative way of evaluating the performance of models and, in particular, of quantifying the differences between observed and modeled solar wind time series. We present the advantages and drawbacks of this method, as well as its application to Wind observations and EUHFORIA predictions at Earth. We show that DTW can warp sequences in time, aiming to align them with the minimum cost by using dynamic programming. It can be applied for the evaluation of modeled solar wind time series in two ways. The first calculates the sequence similarity factor, a number that provides a quantification of how good the forecast is compared to an ideal and a nonideal prediction scenario. The second way quantifies the time and amplitude differences between the points that are best matched between the two sequences. As a result, DTW can serve as a hybrid metric between continuous measurements (e.g., the correlation coefficient) and point-by-point comparisons. It is a promising technique for the assessment of solar wind profiles, providing at once the most complete evaluation portrait of a model.

Multi-scale image preprocessing and feature tracking for remote CME characterization

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) influence the interplanetary environment over vast distances in the solar system by injecting huge clouds of fast solar plasma and energetic particles (SEPs). A number of fundamental questions remain about how SEPs are produced, but current understanding points to CME-driven shocks and compressions in the solar corona. At the same time, unprecedented remote and in situ (Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter) solar observations are becoming available to constrain existing theories. Here we present a general method for recognition and tracking solar images of objects such as CME shock waves and filaments. The calculation scheme is based on a multi-scale data representation concept à trous wavelet transform, and a set of image filtering techniques. We showcase its performance on a small set of CME-related phenomena observed with the SDO/AIA telescope. With the data represented hierarchically on different decomposition and intensity levels, our method allows extracting certain objects and their masks from the imaging observations in order to track their evolution in time. The method presented here is general and applicable to detecting and tracking various solar and heliospheric phenomena in imaging observations. It holds the potential to prepare large training data sets for deep learning. We have implemented this method into a freely available Python library.

Observations of Forbush Decreases of Cosmic-Ray Electrons and Positrons with the Dark Matter Particle Explorer

Abstract The Forbush decrease (FD) represents the rapid decrease of the intensities of charged particles accompanied with the coronal mass ejections or high-speed streams from coronal holes. It has been mainly explored with the ground-based neutron monitor network, which indirectly measures the integrated intensities of all species of cosmic rays by counting secondary neutrons produced from interaction between atmospheric atoms and cosmic rays. The space-based experiments can resolve the species of particles but the energy ranges are limited by the relatively small acceptances except for the most abundant particles like protons and helium. Therefore, the FD of cosmic-ray electrons and positrons have just been investigated by the PAMELA experiment in the low-energy range (<5 GeV) with limited statistics. In this paper, we study the FD event that occurred in 2017 September with the electron and positron data recorded by the Dark Matter Particle Explorer. The evolution of the FDs from 2 GeV to 20 GeV with a time resolution of 6 hr are given. We observe two solar energetic particle events in the time profile of the intensity of cosmic rays, the earlier, and weaker, one has not been shown in the neutron monitor data. Furthermore, both the amplitude and recovery time of fluxes of electrons and positrons show clear energy dependence, which is important in probing the disturbances of the interplanetary environment by the coronal mass ejections.

Magnetic imaging of the outer solar atmosphere (MImOSA)

The magnetic activity of the Sun directly impacts the Earth and human life. Likewise, other stars will have an impact on the habitability of planets orbiting these host stars. Although the magnetic field at the surface of the Sun is reasonably well characterised by observations, the information on the magnetic field in the higher atmospheric layers is mainly indirect. This lack of information hampers our progress in understanding solar magnetic activity. Overcoming this limitation would allow us to address four paramount long-standing questions: (1) How does the magnetic field couple the different layers of the atmosphere, and how does it transport energy? (2) How does the magnetic field structure, drive and interact with the plasma in the chromosphere and upper atmosphere? (3) How does the magnetic field destabilise the outer solar atmosphere and thus affect the interplanetary environment? (4) How do magnetic processes accelerate particles to high energies? New ground-breaking observations are needed to address these science questions. We suggest a suite of three instruments that far exceed current capabilities in terms of spatial resolution, light-gathering power, and polarimetric performance: (a) A large-aperture UV-to-IR telescope of the 1-3 m class aimed mainly to measure the magnetic field in the chromosphere by combining high spatial resolution and high sensitivity. (b) An extreme-UV-to-IR coronagraph that is designed to measure the large-scale magnetic field in the corona with an aperture of about 40 cm. (c) An extreme-UV imaging polarimeter based on a 30 cm telescope that combines high throughput in the extreme UV with polarimetry to connect the magnetic measurements of the other two instruments. Placed in a near-Earth orbit, the data downlink would be maximised, while a location at L4 or L5 would provide stereoscopic observations of the Sun in combination with Earth-based observatories. This mission to measure the magnetic field will finally unlock the driver of the dynamics in the outer solar atmosphere and thereby will greatly advance our understanding of the Sun and the heliosphere.

Parker Solar Probe Observations of Alfvénic Waves and Ion-cyclotron Waves in a Small-scale Flux Rope

Abstract Small-scale flux ropes (SFRs) are common in the interplanetary environment. However, previous identification procedures generally discard SFRs with medium and high Alfvénicity, which are thought to be Alfvénic waves or Alfvénic structures. This paper first identifies an SFR event with medium Alfvénicity in the inner heliosphere (at ∼0.2 au) using Parker Solar Probe measurements. We find Alfvénic waves that arise inside SFR based on high correlations between the magnetic field and velocity fluctuations. We also observe quasi-monochromatic electromagnetic waves with frequencies f that are usually larger than the local proton cyclotron frequency at the leading and trailing edges of this SFR. These waves are well explained by the outward-propagating ion-cyclotron waves, which have wave frequencies ∼0.03–0.3 Hz and wavelengths ∼60–2000 km in the plasma frame. Moreover, we show that the power spectral density of the magnetic field in SFR middle region follows the power-law distribution, where the spectral index changes from −1.5 (f ≲ 1 Hz) to −3.3 (f ≳ 1 Hz). These findings would motivate developing an automated program to identify SFRs with medium and high Alfvénicity from Alfvénic waves/structures.

Dynamic Mechanisms Associated With High‐Energy Electron Flux Dropout in the Earth's Outer Radiation Belt Under the Influence of a Coronal Mass Ejection Sheath Region

AbstractThe near‐Earth interplanetary environment conditions affect the dynamics of the relativistic electron population quasitrapped in the radiation belts. A complex chain of processes observed in the magnetosphere can contribute to the variability of these populations when interplanetary structures, such as the interplanetary counterpart of a solar coronal mass ejection (ICME), and high‐speed solar wind streams interact with the magnetosphere. However, as these processes can coexist, it is hard to untangle the relative contribution of each process to the loss of particles and the eventual repopulation. Here we show evidence that it is possible to distinguish the relative contribution of mechanisms related to the loss of the outer radiation belt electrons for an event observed on July 19 and 20, 2016. The interaction of an ICME's turbulent sheath with the Earth's magnetosphere resulted in a decrease in the outer radiation belt relativistic electron population. The ultralow frequency (ULF) and chorus wave activities are detected in the outer radiation belt during the time when the Earth's magnetosphere is under the influence of the ICME's sheath region, as well as the ICME's magnetic cloud region, while the electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the outer belt are observed only during the sheath region. Dynamic mechanisms such as magnetopause shadowing, outward radial diffusion driven by ULF waves, pitch‐angle scattering driven by both EMIC and chorus waves are quantitatively analyzed. Our results suggest that the structures of the ICMEs can trigger the drivers to generate the different dynamic mechanisms responsible for the radiation belt population variability.

Dynamics of Magnetic Structures during a Magnetospheric Substorm

The Earth’s magnetosphere and the ambient interplanetary environment can create favorable conditions for the nonlinear process of energy release in the form of changes in the topology of the magnetic field and current systems, particle acceleration, wave generation, and sharp gradients in the parameters inherent to a substorm phenomenon. Initially, early studies substantiated the role of variations in the solar wind parameters as a key factor responsible for the onset of a magnetospheric substorm; however, this factor was later shown not to be decisive. Over several decades, continuously improving methods for designing measurement tools and analyzing data helped to identify the processes that accompany the substorm phenomenon and describe them both qualitatively and quantitatively. However, there is no consensus in understanding the scenario of substorm development stepwise. The purpose of the research is to determine the propagation and orientation features of transients (fronts) in the current sheet of the Earth’s magnetotail during a substorm. To do this, the magnetic field measurements obtained by the four spacecraft of the Cluster II mission for July 20, 2013, are analyzed. During this event, spacecraft were located on the night side of the Earth’s magnetosphere and recorded changes in the geomagnetic field during the magnetospheric substorm. We used the single-spacecraft method for finding the minimum variance of the magnetic field and multispacecraft timing analysis involving cross-correlation of time series. The first method allows finding the direction of the normal to the structure under study; the second method makes it possible to find the direction and absolute value of its propagation velocity. The results of the study show that, with the development of substorms, the fronts that move towards the Earth exhibit a decrease in the propagation velocity and a significant degree of curvature. The first effect (a decrease in the propagation velocity of the fronts) indicates a decrease in the energy reserve of the current sheet for the generation of such transients, and the second effect (a significant degree of curvature) indicates the azimuthal localization of the front.

Time-dependent solar modulation of cosmic rays from solar minimum to solar maximum

We study the time-dependent modulation effect and derive the local interstellar spectra (LIS) for the cosmic ray (CR) proton, helium, boron and carbon. A two-dimensional modulation model including the variation of the interplanetary environment with time is adopted to describe modulation process. The propagation equation of CRs in the heliosphere is numerically solved by the package Solarprop. We derive the LIS by fitting the latest results of several experiments, including Voyager 1, PAMELA, BESS-POLARII and ACE, during low solar activity periods. We further study the modulation in the polarity reversal periods with the PAMELA proton data. We find that the rigidity dependence of the diffusion coefficient is critical to explain the modulation effect during reversal periods. Our results also indicate a power law relation between the diffusion coefficient and the magnitude of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at the Earth.

Mars to Earth Data Downloading: A Directory Synchronization Approach

This paper aims to present a possible alternative to direct file transfer in “challenged networks”, by using DTNbox, a recent application for peer-to-peer directory synchronization between DTN nodes. This application uses the Bundle Protocol (BP) to tackle long delays and link intermittency typical of challenged networks. The directory synchronization approach proposed in the paper consists of delegating the transmission of bulk data files to DTNbox, instead of modifying source applications to interface with the API of a specific BP implementation, or making use of custom scripts for file transfers. The validity of the proposed approach is investigated in the paper by considering a Mars to Earth interplanetary environment. Experiments are carried out by means of Virtual Machines running ION, the NASA-JPL implementation of DTN protocols. The results show that the directory synchronization approach is a valid alternative to direct transfer in interplanetary scenarios such as that considered in the paper.

Database capabilities for studying Forbush-effects and interplanetary disturbances

For a comprehensive study of Forbush-effects and their relationship to solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic disturbances, IZMIRAN researchers created (and continuously replenishes) a unique database of transient phenomena in cosmic rays and the interplanetary environment. In it, variations in the density and anisotropy of cosmic rays are combined with solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic parameters. The database includes a large number of different characteristics for about 7500 Forbush-effects, covering more than half a century of observations (1957-2017). In the work presented, some of the features of this tool are demonstrated.

Relationship of Halo CMEs and Solar Proton Events

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are important sources of Solar Proton Events (SPEs). Their speeds and source region locations have significant effects on the occurrence of SPEs. In this paper, all the halo CMEs observed in recent five years are statistically analyzed. The results show that the fast halo CMEs with small angular distances are more likely to produce SPEs, especially, those halo CMEs with a speed greater than 1200kms−1 and an angular distance less than 60°. Three fast halo CMEs with no SPEs caused are elaborately studied. The results show that the ejection direction of the CME's main body and the variation of interplanetary magnetic field also have important impacts on the occurrence of SPEs. Consequently, in the practical daily space environment forecasts, an accurate forecast for SPEs must take various factors into account, such as the eruption speed, source region location, the main-body ejection direction of CMEs, and the interplanetary environment, etc.