International Tourism Expenditures Research Articles

ЮНВТО Всемирная туристская Барометр, и статистическое приложение Обновленная информация, Декабрь 2020 года

International tourism expected to decline over 70% in 2020, back to levels of 30 years ago International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveller confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel. However, some large markets such as the United States, Germany and France have shown some shy signs of recovery in the recent months. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism continues to grow in several large markets such as China and Russia, where domestic air travel demand has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels. Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago. The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019. Looking ahead, the announcement and the roll-out of a vaccine are expected to gradually increase consumer confidence and contribute to ease travel restrictions. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years.

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, December 2020

International tourism expected to decline over 70% in 2020, back to levels of 30 years ago International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveller confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel. However, some large markets such as the United States, Germany and France have shown some shy signs of recovery in the recent months. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism continues to grow in several large markets such as China and Russia, where domestic air travel demand has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels. Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago. The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019. Looking ahead, the announcement and the roll-out of a vaccine are expected to gradually increase consumer confidence and contribute to ease travel restrictions. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years

Baromètre OMT du tourisme mondial et annexe statistique, Octobre 2020

International travel plunges 70% in the first eight months of 2020. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) declined 70% in the first eight months of 2020 over the same period of last year, amid global travel restrictions including many borders fully closed, to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. International arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season. Despite such large declines, this represents a relative improvement over the 90% or greater decreases of the previous months, as some destinations started to reopen to international tourism, mostly in the European Union. The decline in January-August 2020 represents 700 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 730 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 8 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic, saw a 79% decrease in arrivals in January-August 2020. Africa and the Middle East both recorded a 69% drop this eight-month period, while Europe saw a 68% decline and the Americas 65%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel, though in several large markets such as the United States, Germany and Italy there is a small uptick in spending in the months of July and August. Based on latest trends, a 75% decrease in international arrivals is estimated for the month of September and a drop of close to 70% for the whole of 2020. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism is strengthening recovery in several large markets such as China and Russia. The UNWTO Confidence Index continues at record lows. Most UNWTO Panel Experts expect a rebound in international tourism by the third quarter of 2021 and a return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels not before 2023. Experts consider travel restrictions as the main barrier weighing on the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence.

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, October 2020

International travel plunges 70% in the first eight months of 2020 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) declined 70% in the first eight months of 2020 over the same period of last year, amid global travel restrictions including many borders fully closed, to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. International arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season. Despite such large declines, this represents a relative improvement over the 90% or greater decreases of the previous months, as some destinations started to reopen to international tourism, mostly in the European Union. The decline in January-August 2020 represents 700 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 730 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 8 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic, saw a 79% decrease in arrivals in January-August 2020. Africa and the Middle East both recorded a 69% drop this eight-month period, while Europe saw a 68% decline and the Americas 65%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel, though in several large markets such as the United States, Germany and Italy there is a small uptick in spending in the months of July and August. Based on latest trends, a 75% decrease in international arrivals is estimated for the month of September and a drop of close to 70% for the whole of 2020. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism is strengthening recovery in several large markets such as China and Russia. The UNWTO Confidence Index continues at record lows. Most UNWTO Panel Experts expect a rebound in international tourism by the third quarter of 2021 and a return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels not before 2023. Experts consider travel restrictions as the main barrier weighing on the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence.

Uluslararası Turizm Harcamalarının Sosyal, Kültürel ve Ekonomik Açıdan İncelenmesi

With the increasing number of people participating in the tourism movement in the world, tourists travel to various parts of the world and engage in cultural and social interaction. From this point, tourism has also an important role in reducing economic imbalances among countries and in the development of emerging regions. The aim of the study is to examine whether there is a relationship between international tourism expenditure and the economic, social and cultural figures of the World’s top tourism spenders and Turkey. Qualitative research method was used in the research. Secondary data analysis was carried out by using the statistics of official and global organizations such as Rep. of Turkey Ministry of Culture and Tourism, The World Bank, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), World Economic Forum. The research was carried out using the data of the last eleven years (2009-2019) of the countries. According to the findings, there are differences between Turkey and top tourism spenders regarding some travel and tourism competitiveness pillars and social and economic indicators such as educational attainment, working times, unemployment rates, inflation.

Tourist arrivals, international tourist expenditure, and economic growth inBRICcountries

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of tourism arrivals and tourist expenditure on economic growth in case of four developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) using annual data from 1995 to 2016. To achieve this objective, we apply Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test and panel data models. The results indicate that tourist expenditure has a positive impact on economic growth. Further, the results show that tourist arrivals do not have any significant effect on economic growth. The direction of causality shows that tourist expenditure has bidirectional causality with economic growth. The policy suggests that the investment environment must be upgraded through appropriate measures such as deregulation in economic activity; developing the port facilities, road network, railways, and telecommunication facilities; achieving clarity in trade policy and flexibility in labor markets; and setting a suitable regulatory framework and tariff structure and the country must grow in terms of better facilities and infrastructure for tourists.

Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries

This study examines how employment affects demand for tourism in the short and long run, controlling for the effects of income and relative prices within a panel of 32 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries throughout the 1995–2016 period. To this end, we employ second-generation panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and panel data estimation techniques. Panel cointegration tests uncovered a long-run relationship between international tourism expenditure per adult, gross domestic product per adult, effective exchange rates adjusted relative prices and employment to adult population ratio. A particular implication of the result would be that the quality of employment by way of remuneration which is sufficient enough to sustain outbound tourism expenditure does not move in synchrony with workforce expansion. The failure of employment to be a significant determinant of long-run outbound tourism demand may have to do with economic and demographic factors in OECD countries as well as employment business cycles. Diminishing returns to employment, a general decline in the labour income share, a rising inequality of wage distribution among the working population due to relative adjustments in factor intensities as well as an aging population may have played contributory roles to this phenomenon. Therefore, tourism stakeholders should take note of median wage changes of possible departure countries in relation to destination costs when developing marketing frameworks for tourist locations. Moreover, reduction in unemployment rates is only indicative of short-run changes, implying that a significant impact on average tourism demand should not be expected unless average income also rises.

Investigating the Influence of International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Linkage to Economic Growth: Evidence From ARDL Approach

Tourism is a key source of income and employment today, and different parts of the world are heavily dependent on it. The main purpose of this article was to demonstrate the consequences of long-run and short-run relationship on international tourism in Pakistan and its impact on economic growth by applying an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test was employed to check the stationarity of the variables, while an ARDL bounds testing approach was used to measure the long-run and short-run dynamics linkage among the study variables. The results show that international tourism and expenditures for passenger transport items have a positive impact on economic growth. Similarly, long-run dynamics also revealed that international tourism expenditures for travel items and international tourism expenditures, international tourism receipts for passenger transport items and international tourism receipts for travel items also had a positive impact on the economic growth. The present analysis of the long-run suggested better policies should be implemented to attract more international tourists to the country.

Identifying the Carbon Emissions Damage to International Tourism: Turn a Blind Eye

The importance of sustainable tourism is largely discussed in environmental literature under two different main streams: first, an ample amount of literature is available on the role of international tourism in economic development; second, the existing literature mainly focused on estimating tourism carbon footprints across countries. Limited work has been done on identifying the cost of carbon emissions on the tourism industry, which is evaluated in this study to fill the existing literature gap by using a large panel of 132 countries between 1995 and 2018. The results show that carbon emissions damage, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, and population density substantially decrease inbound tourism and international tourism receipts that result in an impact on the increase in international tourism expenditures across countries. The ex-ante analysis shows that inbound tourism will likely decrease from 19.546% to 16.854% due to an increase in carbon emissions damage of 0.357% to 1.349% for the period 2020–2028. Subsequently, international tourism expenditures will decrease from 19.758% to 12.384% by increasing carbon emissions damage from0.832% to 1.025%. Finally, international tourism revenues will subsequently decline from23.362% to 18.197% due to lowering carbon emissions damage from 0.397% to −0.113% over a time horizon.

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, January 2020

Growth in international tourist arrivals continues to outpace the economy International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) worldwide grew 4% in 2019 to reach 1.5 billion, based on data reported by destinations around the world. 2019 was another year of strong growth, although slower compared to the exceptional rates of 2017 (+7%) and 2018 (+6%). Demand was slower mainly in advanced economies and particularly in Europe. Uncertainty surrounding Brexit, geopolitical and trade tensions, and the global economic slowdown, weighed on growth. 2019 was also the year of major shifts in the sector with the collapse of Thomas Cook and of several low-cost airlines in Europe. All regions enjoyed an increase in arrivals. The Middle East (+8%) led growth, followed by Asia and the Pacific (+5%). International arrivals in Europe and Africa (both +4%) increased in line with the world average, while the Americas saw growth of 2%. As per the main source markets, France reported the strongest increase in international tourism expenditure among the top ten markets, while the United States led growth in absolute terms. Based on current trends, economic prospects and the UNWTO Confidence Index, UNWTO forecasts a growth of 3% to 4% in international tourist arrivals worldwide in 2020.

АНАЛІЗ ГЛОБАЛЬНИХ ТЕНДЕНЦІЙ У ТУРИЗМІ

International tourism is one of the most important sectors of the world economy, which affects the main economic indicators of each country and stimulates the development of many other sectors of the economy, including transport infrastructure, communications, trade, construction, improvement of recreational areas and others. The article considers the main global trends that affect international tourism. In particular, data on international departures and international tourism expenditures in some countries in 2016-2019 were analyzed. A decrease in the number of international arrivals in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the world regions was established, as well as a comparison with similar indicators in 2018 was made. The main reasons of this fact are: firstly, the introduction of travel restrictions (in 2020) that had an extremely negative impact on the global tourism industry; secondly, the demand declining for tourist trips; and, thirdly, the uncertainty of the pandemic situation. New forms of tourism that appear in the world (nostalgic tourism, gastronomic tourism, shopping tourism, patriotic tourism, business tourism, health tourism, individual tourism, ecotourism) have been studied. The increase in travel expenses aimed at solving professional and business issues is justified, the reasons for this trend were analyzed, considering the fact that the share of people who traveled for this purpose did not change significantly during 2014-2018. It has been found that climate change poses risks and threats to some tourism types, such as winter sports and beach recreation. This can reduce the competitiveness of some popular resort areas. Therefore, there is a need to implement sustainable lifestyles, innovations, including in the tourism industry, in order to minimize damage to the environment. The measures that need to be taken at the international level in order to reconstruct world tourism are presented. The analysis of global trends of tourism industry development will make it possible to conduct a clearer and more consistent policy, both at the level of individual states and on a global scale.

The impact of the national tourism system on the economic growth in Ukraine

The paper aims at analyzing the impact of tourism on the economic growth in Ukraine considering its global significance and dynamic development. Tourism should be considered not as a separate phenomenon, but as a complex socio-economic-ecological system, i.e. the national tourism system (NTS). The study attempts to reveal the nature and determinants of the national tourism system impact on economic growth, and also empirically substantiates this in the Ukrainian context. Since the economic decisions require a huge amount of information and different models, a multivariate least square model has been proposed to determine the causal links between NTS and economic growth. The paper also presents the economic parameters such as Ukrainian GDP as a dependent variable, volume of domestic tourism consumption, income from international passenger carriage, international tourism expenditures in the country, the volume of services provided in temporary accommodation and catering establishments, and country’s income from NTS as independent variables. The paper is based on the 2000–2017 statistical data. It concludes that the increase of total NTS contribution to GDP is influenced by all considered factors except the international tourism expenditures in the country. A proposed econometric factor analysis model can be used as a tool to analyze and forecast the socio-economic NTS processes. The hypothesis of the NTS`s impact on economic growth is substantiated.

Humanitarian Organizations in International Disaster Relief: Understanding the Linkage Between Donors and Recipient Countries

This study explores how humanitarian organizations (HOs) link donors and recipients in a disaster relief coordination mechanism. Based on an analysis of real data collected from the financial tracking service, our results show that disaster assistance through the HO channel greatly exceeds the funding delivered by the non-HO channel. The severity of the disaster is positively correlated with the involvement of HOs. Disaster-stricken countries that belong to the Non-Aligned Movement receive more assistance through the HO channel. The recipients with less international trade may attract more HO-channel funding, but higher international tourism expenditures also may result in more HO-channel funding. We also found that the determinants of the disaster relief coordination path vary greatly in terms of trade openness, political regime, and geographic factors. Based on the analysis of the primary humanitarian relief supply chain, the results show that some countries prefer to donate through large international HOs (e.g., Japan and Canada), and other countries favor national level organizations (e.g., the UK and the USA). Finally, to improve the efficiency of international disaster relief, the paper suggests a coordination platform that involves the main donors, frequent recipients, HOs, and a Global Information Network that can assist in coordinating disaster relief activities.

Macroeconomic Characteristics of Tourism Economy in the Republic of Tunisia

Introduction. Tourism is a dynamic, constantly developing sector of the economy. Tourism economy develops along with the society, recreation and tourism. The purpose of the article is to show the features of the impact of tourism on the national economy using the case of Tunisia. The experience of Tunisia is especially useful for the countries where beach recreation has developed and where the political situation has remained difficult for a long time (Egypt, Turkey, Thailand, etc.). Materials and Methods. The article is based on the statistical data provided by the World Tourism Organization, the World Data Atlas and open Internet sources. The study employed general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, synthesis, comparison, etc.) and special ones (the methods of mathematical statistics, the graphical method, the comparative method, etc.). Results. For the first time, the article has provided a fairly complete description of the macroeconomic indicators characterizing the level of development of international tourism in Tunisia. The article has analyzed the dynamics of inbound and outbound tourism, discussed the factors affecting the volume of international tourism, considered international tourism expenditures and revenues, which to a large extent have a positive or negative impact on the country’s balance of payments. The trends in the development of international tourism in Tunisia have been revealed and the problems facing the industry have been identified. Discussion and Conclusion. The research has revealed that tourism economy largely depends on the political and economic processes taking place in the country. The current level of macroeconomic indicators of tourism economy in Tunisia lags behind the 2008–2009 figures. The results of the study made it possible to assess the current state of international tourism and make a number of suggestions aimed at increasing the level of development of international tourism in the country. The results of the study can contribute to the development of a program aimed to boost tourism economy in Tunisia, one of the key tasks of which should be that of increasing performance at the macro-level.

UNDERSTANDING THE ASEAN-5 TOURISM SECTOR BASED ON AUSTRALIA OUTBOUND TOURISM

Many studies have been conducted with the aim at investigating the relationship between the tourism performance and macroeconomic variables. However, only few studies investigated the regional tourism performance based on a specific origin country. This study investigated the relationship between ASEAN-5 international tourism receipts as the dependent variable and macroeconomic variables as the independent variables namely the exchange rates to Australian Dollar, Australia GDP per capita, international tourism expenditure, and transportation costs. The method used to investigate this study is panel data regression model to determine the influence among the explanatory variables to the dependent variable. The results denote that the exchange rates, GDP per capita, and the transportation cost are significant to the tourism receipts. Meanwhile, the international tourism expenditure variable shows an insignificant result to the tourism receipts.

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, March/April 2018

This issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and the accompanying Statistical Annex presents an analysis of outbound tourism based on international tourism expenditure and departures data for source markets for 2017. Additionally, it updates of the preliminary results for international tourist arrivals and receipts in 2017 reported by destinations around the world included in the January 2018 Advance Release. Furthermore, this issue includes an analysis of airline results and of hospitality markets in 2017.

The effect of prosperity on international tourism expenditure

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate prosperity–international tourism expenditure nexus to discover the prosperity sub-indices which affect tourism expenditure.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual panel data for the sample period between 2009-2013 on 98 countries, this study implements a two-stage least squares estimation method with fixed effects specification in a panel regression analysis to find the relationships between international tourism expenditure and prosperity sub-indices.FindingsThe estimation results reveal a statistically significant relationship between the tourism expenditures of the citizens and prosperity, when prosperity is measured using its sub-indices, including Entrepreneurship and Opportunities, Government Efficiency, Education, Health, Safety and Security, Personal Freedom, Social Capital and Economy of the country. Education, Safety and Security and Health are the most significant factors which affect tourism expenditures of the country of origin.Practical implicationsTo decrease the money outflow, policymakers may have plans to improve health infrastructure and, at the same time, increase quality of education and access to education in the country. Tourism policies which do not consider these prosperity sub-indices as explanatory variables may make mistakes in controlling actual tourism expenditures.Originality/valueThe paper’s originality lies in using new independent variables (prosperity sub-indices) in estimating tourism expenditure by using an appropriate panel data approach that deals with endogeneity problems.

Revisiting the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis in a Dual Model Using Mwald Granger Causality Analysis

This study reinvestigates the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Taiwan by applying the Johansen co-integration and Modified Wald (MWALD) causality tests to long-term data-from 1958 to 2017. We employ both bivariate (international tourist arrivals and real GDP) and trivariate (international tourist arrivals, international tourist expenditures, and real GDP) models. We find that there is a long-run relationship between the three variables, and that there is a unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to international tourist arrivals in both bivariate and trivariate models, supporting the tourism-led growth hypothesis. In addition, the existence of bidirectional Granger causality between the real GDP and international tourist expenditures suggests that policymakers should relax regulations to increase tourism flows to promote economic growth.

Economy-wide Impact of Tourism in Malaysia: An Input–output Analysis

Because previous empirical research offers inconclusive evidence of the induced impact of tourism expenditure in Malaysia, this study utilizes a closed input–output model to analyze the total economy-wide impact of international tourist expenditure in Malaysia. The results reveal that international tourist expenditure has both a direct primary impact on tourism-related sectors and a significant secondary impact on other sectors of the economy. The findings of this study suggest that minimizing multiplier variation by adding value to tourism products and curbing import dependency increases the significance of the multipliers and impacts that are generated by international tourist expenditure. The results of this study also indicate that both the primary and secondary economy-wide impacts of tourism should be considered on the basis of many multipliers across various sectors, which is largely absent in the extant literature on the Malaysian tourism industry.

Modelling tourist consumption to achieve economic growth and external balance: case of Croatia

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to develop a model able to explain international tourist expenditures (inflows) in Croatia, and domestic tourist expenditures (outflows) abroad. Design – The present study is based on the research of international tourism demand, aimed at describing the behavior of international expenditures concepts applied to the case of Croatia. Methodology –The proposed model is a multiple linear regression model. Findings – The modelling procedure with all tests showed that the multiple linear regression model is adequate for modelling international tourist spending or expenditures. The model of foreign tourism inflows as well as the model of domestic tourism outflows are designed with main macroeconomic variables. Originality of the research – The study provides a model of tourism balance useful to analyze and forecast foreign exchange tourism inflows and outflows on the case of Croatia. The model is applicable and useful to govern tourism policy, international trade policy and economic policy as a whole.