Change In International System Research Articles

An Introduction: Changing International System under the Scientific and Technological Revolution Science, Technology and International Relations

An Introduction: Changing International System under the Scientific and Technological Revolution Science, Technology and International Relations

FROM JACKBOOTS TO BIRKENSTOCKS: THE CIVILIANISATION OF GERMAN GEOPOLITICS IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

ABSTRACTGerman geopolitical claims have changed from two phases of aggressive, military expansionism (Jackboots) at the beginning of the twentieth century to a civilianised foreign policy (Birkenstocks) at its end. This paper describes this transition during the second half of the twentieth century in light of a changing international system and the geopolitical constellations of the Cold War and European integration. As part of such historical experiences, external circumstances and internal preferences the civilian power concept became the foundation for the Berlin Republic's grand strategy of promoting civilianised structures in the international system. Unlike at the beginning of the twentieth century, German foreign policy after reunification in 1990 was not based on a deliberately pursued strategy of militaristic power politics to attain world power status. It reflected a foreign policy identity into which Germany ‘grew’ during the Cold War in a process of adapting and becoming part of European integration and American hegemony. Even though Germany did not completely abandon its power ambitions, their articulations and claims were radically transformed. A civilianised international system thereby became the objective and medium of German foreign policy. Such a system is characterised by multilateralism, supranational integration, strong international institutions, rule of law, free trade, human rights, good governance and restrictions of the use of force.

The end of the ‘Euro-Mediterranean vision’

Relations between the European Union and North Africa have veered away from the political vision expounded under the Barcelona Process. The Union for the Mediterranean will likely deepen this trend. The Euro—Mediterranean space is increasingly characterized by competitive, containment-based and exclusionary security strategies. The more political dimensions of the partnership are now given short shrift and the EU appears inattentive to the dynamics of change within North African societies. Countries such as Spain and the UK have been overly passive in rescuing the Euro-Med vision from French diplomacy and the nature of relations between Europe and North Africa are increasingly out of sync with the changing international system.

Theory for Strategy

The realist school of thought in international relations theory, under attack in the post-Cold War era for its numerous failings, has turned away from its focus on system structure to a refined version of its earlier form, which also focused on domestic factors and policy choice. But the neoclassical school neglects important systemic dynamics arising from variations in levels of economic and strategic interdependence. A refined neoclassical approach, by focusing on the relationship between degrees of interdependence and the role of structure, identifies the scope for optimal policy choice in different settings. For India, a nation on the threshold of major power status, this provides an improved basis for interpreting the changing international system and fashioning an appropriate broad strategy toward it.

America after the Elections: A Strategy of Conservation

The inter-state system of politics, economics and security is under stress. The well-being and security of states and individuals is eroding as a combination of factors reduces the state's ability to meet its social compact with citizens. Yet over the past decade, Washington has come to assume the effective functioning of the system rather than retaining it as an end of American grand strategy. US policymakers do not fully appreciate how a changing international system is eroding the United States’ security and its way of life. The overarching strategic challenge facing the United States is to revitalise the international system so that the nation can conserve its strength and power even as the global environment shifts. It demands a strategy of conservation. It must simultaneously address the chronic weakening of many states and the growing aspiration and activism of others emerging from the ranks of ‘middle powers’, along with the apparent inability of the current international system to deliver sufficient benefit to those who participate in it.

Japan's Doctoring of the Yoshida Doctrine

[ 199 ] book review roundtable • japan rising & securing japan Japan’s Doctoring of the Yoshida Doctrine Christopher W. Hughes Commenting on these two excellent books written by two of the most internationally influential scholars working on Japan’s foreign and security policies is a daunting task. Boasting breadth and depth of coverage, these thought-provoking and timely analyses hold significant implications for a variety of questions related to the future of Japan, U.S. regional and global strategy, and indeed the future of East Asian regionalism. Kenneth Pyle’s and Richard Samuels’ substantial volumes converge a great deal in their objectives and approaches; both trace the path of Japan’s security policy historically and into the contemporary period. The two works do, however, diverge somewhat in their overall conclusions on Japan’s current and most likely future direction. Both Pyle and Samuels argue that Tokyo’s security policy in the modern era is best understood within the context of Japan’s determination to maintain national autonomy in an often disadvantageous international system. These two scholars both hold that since the Meiji period Japan’s elite policymakers have eventually settled on a series of policy consensuses in an attempt to navigate through international challenges. Although acknowledging that Japan previously made catastrophic mistakes in its security policy (most notably the Pacific War), Pyle and Samuels argue that on the whole Japanese elites maneuver extraordinarily well in generating policy options that have broadly preserved Japanese autonomy. In particular, these two experts offer superb analyses not only of Japan’s post-war policy consensus in the form of the “Yoshida Doctrine” but also of how, by staying close to the U.S. hegemon, Tokyo has managed to achieve many national goals that in former periods Japan had not been able to achieve. I see the key divergences between Pyle and Samuels, however, centering on the debate as to whether since the late 1980s Japan has made a transition away from the Yoshida Doctrine. Samuels argues persuasively that Japan, has not seriously considered abandoning the Yoshida Doctrine, despite public rhetoric implying that Japan might either acquiesce to U.S. domination or bid for outright autonomy. In fact, Samuels contends that as Japan since the late 1990s has strengthened ties with the United States, Tokyo has used the various military and diplomatic changes engendered by this shift to expand the range Christopher W. Hughes (PhD University of Sheffield, 1997) is Reader/Associate Professor, University of Warwick, UK. He is the author most recently of Japan’s Reemergence as a “Normal” Military Power (2004) and Japan’s Security Agenda: Military, Economic and Environmental Dimensions (2004). He can be reached at . [ 200 ] asia policy of hedging options. Japan has thus avoided the specter of entrapment by creating new avenues for hedging, thereby perpetuating the essence of the Yoshida Doctrine. He offers the scenario of a revamped Yoshida Doctrine, or new Goldilocks consensus,(p. 209) under which Tokyo is retaining close ties to the United States in order to exploit the benefits of hegemonic protection and yet is purposefully limiting the risk of hitching Japan irreversibly to U.S. military adventurism. Although less unequivocal than Samuels, Pyle intimates that Japan’s constant sensitivity to the changing international system, especially with regard to perceptions of declining U.S. hegemony and growing challenges from China, suggests that Tokyo may be poised to abandon the Yoshida Doctrine consensus. Whether the Yoshida Doctrine is dying and what might come next are questions on which Pyle and Samuels diverge in their analysis; this is where my own reading of the Japanese situation differs as well. I do not disagree with Pyle and Samuels’ understanding of the general trajectory of Japan’s security policy to date, the predilection of Japanese elite to maximize autonomy, and the great skill and ingenuity with which these leaders have sought to maintain hedging options. As I have argued elsewhere, however, I doubt the staying-power of Japanese elites’ determination to hedge and the skill with which they have played their hand in keeping their options open to both counter over-dependence on the U.S.-Japan alliance and the risks of entrapment. I agree with the final two chapters of...

Foreign Aid, Institutions, and Governance in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Introduction More than a decade ago, the World Bank argued that “underlying the litany of Africa’s development problems is a crisis of governance.” Poor quality institutions, weak rule of law, an absence of accountability, tight controls over information, and high levels of corruption still characterize many African states today. Aid levels have been reduced in many parts of Africa during the past decade. Yet in many of the countries with poor governance records, aid continues to contribute a very high percentage of government budgets. This article explores the institutional impact of these high levels of aid and the way that large amounts of aid are delivered. There are many reasons why governance is poor in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Colonialism did little to develop strong, indigenously rooted institutions that could tackle the development demands of modern states. Economic crisis and unsustainable debt, civil wars, and political instability have all taken their toll over the past 2 decades and more. It is difficult to separate the impact of these problems from the possible impact of foreign aid, which is often high in countries that suffer from precisely these problems. Theory provides conflicting guidance here. On the one hand, aid can release governments from binding revenue constraints, enabling them to strengthen domestic institutions and pay higher salaries to civil servants. Aid can provide training and technical assistance to build legal systems and accounting offices. In many countries, aid personnel (sometimes expatriate) manage important government programs, and the infusion of resources and technical assistance can give an important boost to the efficiency and effectiveness of governance, if only in a partial sense. Yet despite these likely benefits, it is also possible that, continued over

Contingency, Catalysts, and International System Change

Wars, revolutions, and depressions change the world and the way in which we think about it. World War I was a seminal event in both respects. It ushered in a profound transformation of the international system, and is described by many historians as the crucible in which the twentieth century was shaped. It has also been a critical case for the generation and testing of theories about conflict and international relations more generally. Many historians contend that World War I-or something like it-would have been very hard, if not impossible, to avoid. The distinguished British historian, F. H. Hinsley, insisted, If the Sarajevo crisis had not precipitated a particular great war, some other crisis would have precipitated a great war at no distant date.1 Neorealisfs and power transition theorists make similar claims, albeit for different reasons.2 I do not doubt that many, perhaps most of the causes of war in 1914 that historians and political scientists have identified created a conflict-prone environment. But underlying causes, no matter how numerous or deep-seated, do not make an event inevitable. Their consequences

Taiwan's TransitionsThe First Chinese Democracy: Political Life in the Republic of China on Taiwan. Linda Chao, Ramon MyersDemocratization in China and Taiwan: The Adaptability of Leninist Parties. Bruce J. DicksonContemporary Taiwan. David ShambaughConsolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Volume 1, Themes and Perspectives. Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, Hung-Mao TienConsolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Volume 2, Regional Challenges. Larry

Taiwan's Transitions<i>The First Chinese Democracy: Political Life in the Republic of China on Taiwan</i>. Linda Chao, Ramon Myers<i>Democratization in China and Taiwan: The Adaptability of Leninist Parties</i>. Bruce J. Dickson<i>Contemporary Taiwan</i>. David Shambaugh<i>Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Volume 1, Themes and Perspectives</i>. Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, Hung-Mao Tien<i>Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Volume 2, Regional Challenges</i>. Larry

An Alternative to Global Marketization: East Asian Regional Cooperation and the Civic State

cally perpetual. As possible choices within those structural boundaries, realists concentrated on devising various diplomatic and military strategies. Thus they almost entirely failed to predict changes in the very structure of the international system changes that resulted in the end of the Cold War. Although it may well be that the end of World War II can, at least in part, be interpreted in power-political terms because the Allied victory was achieved through the military devastation and occupation of Germany and Japan, the end of the Cold War did not occur with the Western countries militarily defeating and occupying the East. What, then, led to the end of the Cold War? Of course, many factors were involved, but the most decisive was the progressive weakening of the Eastern states through an erosion of regime legitimacy. This was not as a result of the military weakness of the Eastern states such as the Soviet Union, as is illustrated by the fact that Russia is still a nuclear superpower. It is true that the superpowers' negotiations in the late 1980s for shifting from strategic arms limitation to arms reduction marked a significant step toward the ending of the Cold War. But this state-to-state rapprochement between the United States and the USSR left vital

International Law in a Changing International System

To see what international law can offer in an apparently chaotic and fast changing world is far from easy. But it is only by examining and trying to understand the evolving international system that some answers may be found, because international law and international relations are in a symbiotic relationship.The characterising features of the contemporary international system are globalisation on the one hand and a unipolar power structure on the other. The former is having a significant impact on international law as by its very nature actors are engaged in transactions across State boundaries in alliances that are not bounded by nationality. Modern technology facilitates these alliances of interest and gives an unprecedented voice to non-State actors, whether in human rights, in environmental matters or in international markets.The concentration of military power in the United States had led to various incremental changes in authorisations of force by the United Nations, whether for peacekeeping or for enforcement actions. The evolving relationship between the United Nations and NATO has negative as well as positive factors and needs careful monitoring.

Taiwan's Security in the Changing International System (review)

436 China Review International: Vol. 5, No. 2, Fall 1998 NOTES1. Vera Schwarcz, "Strangers No More: Personal Memory in the Interstices of Public Commemoration ," in Memory, History, Opposition under State Socialism, ed. Rubie Watson (Santa Fe, New Mexico: School ofAmerican Research, 1994), p. 47. Dennis Van Vranken Hickey. Taiwan's Security in the Changing International System. Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1997. ?, 233 pp. $49-95- isbn 1-555-87627-7. "National security" is indeed an ambiguous term, with a variety of meanings. Dennis Van Vranken Hickey, an associate professor of political science at Southeast Missouri State University, has done a good job of analyzing the security of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan after the "end" of the Cold War by identifying both military and nonmilitary problems. His book is strengthened, for example , by personal interviews conducted in Taipei, in February 1996. But, he does not include in his select bibliography my article, "'Taiwanization' Programme in the ROCs Armed Forces," published in Jane's Defence Weekly for December 9, 1989. The first three chapters introduce Taiwan's security environment. The next four chapters include such topics as relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC); Taipei's arms purchases in recent years; the democratization ofTaiwan and Taiwan's economic clout; and the pragmatic diplomacy of the ROC. Chapters 8, 9, and 10 examine die kinds of challenges still facing the ROC, such as the call for Taiwan's independence. The concluding chapter suggests that real threats to the survival of the ROC on Taiwan remain. The author points out, for example, that domestic political developments in mainland China are especially worrisome. Hickey rightfully asks whether Taipei could trust a peace agreement signed by parties on both sides of the Taiwan Strait (p. 49), and "would a nonagression pact enhance the island's security?" From a dialectical point ofview, the ROC should never drop its vigilance concerning the ultimate intention of the PRC to bring about the demise of the ROC. In April 1997, Yin Tsung-wen, Director of the ROC National Security Bureau, stated that the probability of Beijing attacking Taiwan within the next five years is slim. y niversi y ^e mam, anajyStS) Hickey says that the PRC leaders do focus on Taiwan despite the ongoing internal power struggle for top leadership. Thus, it is a mistake for Paul A. Godwin to suggest that "most of the Chinese [Communist] Navy cono /Hawai'! Press Reviews 437 sists ofjunk" (p. 185), because, as Tai-ming Cheung, a military expert on the People's Liberation Army, explains, "Western intelligence agencies have always been caught by surprise" by Beijing moves (p. 187). To be sure, Chinese strategists traditionally like to conceal their best weapons until the time is ripe to show them offor even use them. It is good for the author to remind us that "[t]he Taiwan Relations Act [TRA] does not specifically guarantee a U.S. response to an attack directed against Taiwan. . . . [T]he law provides the United States onlywith an option to defend Taiwan" (p. 184; emphasis in original). In other words, "The TRA is not a formal defense treaty" (p. 40). This is because some people in Taiwan think that it will be possible for the United States to come to the aid ofa newly created "Republic ofTaiwan." Foreign scholars and experts living abroad are usually handicapped in terms of access to critical relevant information. Hickey may not have been able to read the September 18, 1996, issue of the Commons Daily, headquartered at Kaohsiung Municipal City, which reported that Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto wanted to include the island ofTaiwan in the security arrangement between Japan and the United States. Citing remarks made by several sources, Hickey believes that Taipei is unlikely to join any collective security system because, quoting Paul H. Kreisberg, "No Asian state is likely to wish to be militarily involved in a major conflict between China and Taiwan" (p. 19). Hickey reminds us as well, citing a U.S. Department of Defense study, that U.S. policy in die Western Pacific has been "remarkably consistent over the past two centuries: peace and security; commercial access...

Taiwan's Security in the Changing International System. By Dennis Van Vranken Hickey. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1997. 233p. $49.95.

Taiwan's Security in the Changing International System. By Dennis Van Vranken Hickey. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1997. 233p. $49.95.

Taiwan's Security in the Changing International System.

Taiwan's Security in the Changing International System.

Expanding Japan's role in the United Nations

Abstract In 1994, Japan made a bid for a permanent UNSC seat. This reflects Japan's growing influence in the United Nations as the second largest financial contributor to the regular UN budget and to the UNPKO budget. Moreover, Japan's contribution is no longer limited to the financial realm. Japan has actively participated in UNPKO since it enacted the International Peace Cooperation Law in 1992. It has sent military contingents to three UNPKO missions and a number of civilian missions. The changing international system necessitates fundamental reforms of the UNSC. The UN's fiftieth anniversary seems to be an opportune time for establishing realistic guidelines for the SC reforms to facilitate permanent membership for Japan and Germany comparable to their growing economic and political standings at the global level. In the meantime, Japan should overcome its reluctance to commit itself to UN peacemaking operations, as Germany did, and consolidate public opinion at home and abroad in support of its bid.

Developments in the Global Supply of Arms: Opportunity and Motivation

Likely trends in the supply side of the arms trade are examined, considering the opportunities and motives available to key actors and the changing international system that constrains their options. Among suppliers, the United States remains predominant, if somewhat more commercially than hegemonically oriented than in the past. Despite reassertive efforts and lower prices in the arms field, Russian export prospects are questionable, given uncertainties over budgetary investments, lagging technology, and potentially unreliable parts production or supply. West European sales are likely to remain confined to niches, since there still are no single unified European Union production and marketing mechanisms. China, the least predictable supplier, remains on an economic arms sales push. The depressed market for third-tier suppliers seems likely to persist. The global move to restructure defense industries is likely to lead to a shift from overproduction of finished arms, with many dual-use products emerging instead.

The Changing International System and the Arms Trade

This article examines the impact of the changing structure of the international system on various aspects of the arms trade. The passing of the Cold War allows for comparative analysis of three distinct international systems: the interwar, the postwar or Cold War, and the emerging post-Cold War period. This involves gauging the impact of changing system structure (bipolarity, multipolarity), the degree of ideological conflict at the big-power level, alliance patterns, rates of military technological change, and so forth on such aspects of the arms trade as supplier markets, patterns of supplier-recipient relations, transfer modes, and levels of arms dependency by recipients. The emerging post-Cold War period already appears to evidence some trends in arms transfer patterns reminiscent of the interwar period, specifically those involving the depoliticization and denationalization of that trade. The impact of the Military Technical Revolution in an era of contracting global arms transfers is viewed as crucial to the emerging arms trade.

Caring about the south – with good reason

This article contends that, in a changing international system, Canada should reevaluate its development and trade policies toward the developing countries of the South. The authors analyze threats and opportunities for Canada arising in the South, largely associated with poverty; population growth and human rights. The authors also examine Canada's importance to the South. The article further addresses the challenge of designing effective development policies in response to these threats and opportunities. The article concludes by suggesting greater concentration of resources, especially on the poorest aid recipients, increased coherence among aid, human tights, trade and arms policies, and improved coordination with other donors, particularly through multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and the United Nations.

Politics in Transition

Introduction Britain in a Changing International System - Joe Doherty Britain's Political Crisis - Allan Cochrane Continuity and Change in State Economic Intervention - Simon Mohun Restructuring the State - Allan Cochrane The Case of Local Government The Politics of Locality - Mark Goodwin The End of Class Politics? - Patrick Dunleavy

Semialignment and Western security and Fragmentation and integration: aspects of international system change

Semialignment and Western security and Fragmentation and integration: aspects of international system change