Accumulation Of International Reserves Research Articles

Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze an economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector does not. The central bank is modeled as a Ramsey planner who can choose the domestic interest rate and the level of international reserves. Consumers are credit-constrained as in Woodford (1990). We find that a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility. In the Chinese context, we argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate and that there should be more foreign asset accumulation than in an open economy. (JEL E58, E62, F32, F41, O19, O24, P33)

Banking Systems, Central Banks and International Reserve Accumulation in East Asian Economies

Abstract This paper examines changes in the balance sheets of the banking system in five East Asian economies which were affected by the 1997 Asian Crisis. These countries have persistently accumulated international reserves since the crisis. This paper estimates the impact of reserve accumulation on some important balance sheet variables such as liquid assets, credit and deposits of the banking system by applying panel data techniques. Estimates using data from Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia show that there has been robust positive impact of reserve accumulation on the liquid assets and deposits of the banking system after controlling for the effect of other potential variables.

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Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle

The textbook neoclassical growth model predicts that countries with faster productivity growth should invest more and attract more foreign capital. We show that the allocation of capital flows across developing countries is the opposite of this prediction: capital does not flow more to countries that invest and grow more. We call this puzzle the “allocation puzzle”. Using a wedge analysis, we find that the pattern of capital flows is driven by national saving: the allocation puzzle is a saving puzzle. Further disaggregation of capital flows reveals that the allocation puzzle is also related to the pattern of accumulation of international reserves. The solution to the “allocation puzzle”, thus, lies at the nexus between growth, saving, and international reserve accumulation. We conclude with a discussion of some possible avenues for research.

ACÚMULO DE RESERVAS INTERNACIONAIS E FLUXO DE CAPITAL ESTRANGEIRO

Observações empíricas revelam a dependência inversa entre o risco país e a taxa de acúmulo de reservas internacionais no Brasil. A partir disto, este trabalho propõe um modelo teórico para explicar a relação entre o acúmulo de reservas internacionais e o fluxo de capital estrangeiro no país. Simulações numéricas com esse modelo mostram esse fato estilizado. Finalmente, fazemos o ajuste não linear entre o fluxo de capital estrangeiro e a taxa de perda de reservas internacionais para vários períodos no intervalo janeiro de 1995 a dezembro de 2010. Os resultados mostram que uma política parcimoniosa de acúmulo de reservas internacionais é uma estratégia eficiente para captação de recursos e, portanto de proteção contra flutuações externas.

Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms and Busts

Fluctuations in commodity prices are often associated with macroeconomic volatility. But not all nations are created equal in this regard. The macro response to commodity booms and busts depends both on the structural characteristics of the economy and on the policy framework that is in place. This paper investigates the macro response of a group of commodity-producing nations in episodes of large commodity prices shocks. First, it provides a theoretical framework to analyze how shocks to commodity prices affect the domestic economy. For this the paper uses a simple open-economy model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions. Then it provides empirical evidence (using commodity price boom and bust episodes) that commodity price shocks have a significant impact on output and investment dynamics. Economies with more flexible exchange rate regimes exhibit less pronounced responses of output during these episodes. The paper also provides evidence that the impact of those shocks on investment tends to be larger for economies with less developed financial markets. Moreover, it finds that international reserve accumulation, more stable political systems, and less open capital accounts tend to reduce the real exchange rate appreciation (depreciation) in episodes of commodity price booms (busts).

International Reserves and Rollover Risk

This paper provides a theoretical framework to quantitatively investigate the optimal accumulation of international reserves to hedge against rollover risk. We study a dynamic model of endogenous default in which the government faces a tradeoff between the insurance benefits of reserves with the cost of keeping larger gross debt positions. A calibrated version of our model is able to rationalize large holdings of international reserves, as well as the procyclicality of reserves and gross debt positions. Model simulations are also consistent with spread dynamics and other key macroeconomic variables in emerging economies. The benefits of insurance arrangements and the effects of restricting the use of reserves after default are also analyzed.

International Reserves and Rollover Risk

We study the optimal accumulation of international reserves in a quantitative model of sovereign default with long-term debt and a risk-free asset. Keeping higher levels of reserves provides a hedge against rollover risk, but this is costly because using reserves to pay down debt allows the government to reduce sovereign spreads. Our model, parameterized to mimic salient features of a typical emerging economy, can account for significant holdings of international reserves, and the larger accumulation of both debt and reserves in periods of low spreads and high income. We also show that income windfalls, improved policy frameworks, and an increase in the importance of rollover risk imply increases in the optimal holdings of reserves that are consistent with the upward trend in reserves in emerging economies. It is essential for our results that debt maturity exceeds one period. (JEL E21, E43, F32, F34, H63)

Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can This Be Optimal?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze a semi-open economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector has not. This enables the central bank to choose an interest rate different from the international rate. We examine the optimal policy of the central bank by modelling it as a Ramsey planner who can choose the level of domestic public debt and of international reserves. The central bank can improve the saving opportunities of credit-constrained consumers modelled as in Woodford (1990). We find that in a steady state it is optimal for the central bank to replicate the open economy, i.e., to issue debt financed by the accumulation of reserves so that the domestic interest rate equals the foreign rate. When the economy is in transition, however, a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility and the optimal interest rate differs from the international rate. In the Chinese context, we argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate, which means that the central bank should accumulate more foreign assets than in an open economy.

The 'Impossible Trinity' Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing

We outline new metrics for measuring the trilemma aspects: exchange rate flexibility, monetary independence, and capital account openness, taking into account recent substantial international reserve accumulation. Since 1990, the trilemma variables in emerging markets have converged towards intermediate levels, characterizing by managed flexibility, using sizable international reserves as a buffer while retaining some degree of monetary autonomy. We test the linearity of the trilemma, and find that the weighted sum of the three trilemma variables adds up to a constant. Thus, a rise in one trilemma variable should be traded-off with a drop of the weighted sum of the other two.

Copper Boom and Bust in Zambia: The Commodity-Currency Link

Using Zambia as a case study, this article presents some of the challenges that small resource-dependent economies faced during the commodity boom and the financial crisis. In particular, we investigate the implications of having a price stability mandate when the scope for countercyclical fiscal policy is constrained by limited resource revenues accruing to the budget. We show that, in Zambia, the inflation-focused monetary framework exacerbated the effects of the shocks. The framework worked in favour of currency appreciation during the copper boom, and it did not allow the accumulation of international reserves, which could have been used to respond to the currency depreciation caused by the copper bust.

A gerência recente do endividamento público brasileiro

The recente Brazilian public management. We use two frameworks to analyze the recent Brazilian public debt management. The first one encompasses the Brazilian optimal public debt management analysis through the examination of the correlations among the main variables to which the public debt is indexed. The second seeks to address the consequences of recent Brazilian economic policies, such as international reserves accumulation through sterilized interventions by the Central Bank and excessive capitalization of federal financial institutions. Those policies have important, albeit often ignored, fiscal impacts, which became important to determine the current size, maturity and composition of the public debt stock.

Acumulación de reservas internacionales en países emergentes con tipos de cambio flexibles

De los aspectos más relevantes de los desequilibrios monetarios y financieros actuales sobresale la acumulación de reservas internacionales por parte de los países emergentes,de entre ellos los latinoamericanos están marcando nuevos puntajes históricos. No existe ningún modelo teórico o empírico de medición de estos activos que explique o justifique esta enorme acumulación, que finalmente sólo muestra nuevas formas de transferencia de valor de los países menos desarrollados a los desarrollados. Los países emergentes ejercen sus actividades en el sistema monetario internacional que tiene como base el dólar y algunas otras monedas fuertes, debiendo acumular un gran volumen de divisas como forma precautoria para administrar su mercado cambiario y así fortalecer su política de administración de expectativas en cuanto a lograr sus metas inflacionarias.

The Determinants of Vulnerability to the Global Financial Crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit Growth and Other Sources of Risk

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential explanatory factors employing techniques that are robust to model uncertainty. Four findings are of particular note. First, we find empirical evidence for the pivotal role of pre-crisis credit growth in shaping the real economy's response to the crisis. Specifically, a 1% increase in pre-crisis lending translates into a 0.2% increase in the cumulative loss in real output. Moreover, the combination of pronounced growth in lending ahead of the crisis and the country's exposure to external funding from advanced economies is shown to intensify the real downturn. Economies with booming real activity before the crisis are found to be less resilient to the global shock. Buoyant growth in real GDP in parallel with strong growth of credit particularly exacerbated the effects of the recent crisis on the real economy. Finally, we provide empirical evidence on the importance of holding international reserves in explaining the response of the real economy to the crisis. The effect of international reserves accumulation as a shelter to the global shock rises in credit provided by the domestic banking sector. The results are shown to be robust to several estimation techniques, including those allowing for cross-country spillovers.

An Accumulation of International Reserves and External Debt: Evidence from Developing Countries

The main analytical contribution of this paper is to analyze the cost of the decision to jointly hold reserves and sovereign debt. By analyzing the impact of holding reserves and sovereign debt on sovereign credit ratings will provide the evidence of the costs of holding reserves and debt with respect to credit risk. It is found that the positive effect of accumulation reserves that aims to improve sovereign ratings has been crowding-out by the negative effect of accumulation external debt which resulted in a net negative effect. As such, it is suggested that countries reduce their sovereign debt in order to maintain a good credit risk position while holds international reserves at the optimal level of 3.67 in a month of imports which is slightly higher than the conventional rule.

Monetary autonomy in selected Asian economies: The role of international reserves

With the increased financial integration of Asian countries, monetary policy takes on the additional role of maintaining the stability of the financial system along with the traditional objectives of promoting growth and employment with price stability. Given the importance and relevance of monetary policy in Asian countries, we examine monetary autonomy and its interaction with financial integration, currency regimes and international reserves for the past two decades in the following Asian countries: Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and India. The empirical analysis reveals two significant and interesting findings that have policy implications. First, Thailand, Korea and Indonesia, countries that have moved towards a floating currency regime, experienced simultaneous declines in the sensitivity of their interest rates (thereby increasing monetary autonomy), while India continues to increase the sensitivity of its interest rates with a pegged exchange rate and increased financial integration. Second, in all of the studied economies, the accumulation of international reserves has contributed, to some extent, to the retention of monetary autonomy in terms of preventing the sensitivity of the interest rates from rising. We speculate that the accumulation of reserves plays the role of an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies facing a “fear of floating”.

Capital Markets and Exchange Rate Stabilization in East Asia − Diversifying Risk Based on Currency Baskets

Before and after the Asian crisis, the dollar has been the dominant anchor and reserve currency in East Asia. Due to underdeveloped capital markets and a very limited international role of the domestic currencies, the East Asian countries (except Japan) are likely to continue exchange rate stabilization and accumulation of international reserves. Yet expectations about a further depreciation of the dollar may trigger a broader orientation of exchange rate policies based on basket strategies. While the direction of trade suggests a substantial weight for the Japanese yen in East Asian countries' currency baskets, the role of the euro is enhanced by expectations about its long-term stability. (Rolling) econometric estimations of the basket structures in East Asia suggest growing weights of the euro and the yen in the currency baskets of Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. In contrast, for China, Hong Kong and Malaysia, the dollar remains the dominant anchor currency.

ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVE HOARDING IN KOREA

Since the Asian financial crisis, Korea's accumulation of international reserves has substantially exceeded benchmark levels. The present paper examines the interaction between international reserve hoarding and mercantilist motives, in the context of Korea's policy of maintaining export competitiveness through exchange rate management. An estimation of cointegration and error correction has found that in both the long term and the short term, Korea has stockpiled reserves as a result of heightened concerns regarding export competitiveness. The short-run dynamics entail precautionary motives that have contributed to reserve accumulation. A variance decomposition test suggests that the mercantilist motive has been the main driver of reserve accumulation.

Once Bitten: The Effect of IMF Programs on Subsequent Reserve Behavior

AbstractTraditional models have encountered problems in explaining the accumulation of international reserves, particularly in Asia, in the period since the late 1990s. One suggestion has been that countries have sought to self‐insure against future crises, either because of a perceived increase in the cost of crises or because of the perceived conditionality costs of using IMF credits. This paper offers an empirical investigation of these ideas, disaggregating across regions and across IMF facilities. We find that IMF programs have had a significant positive effect on subsequent reserve accumulation, allowing for other determinants, and that this effect endures over time. We also find that the effect differs between Latin America and Asia, and that it is not simply a phenomenon that is associated with the Asian crisis of 1997/98. The paper goes on to discuss the implications for the design of policy and for the reform of the IMF.

The Growing Weight of the Emerging Economies in the World Economy and Governance: The Case of the BRICs

This paper examines the growing relevance of emerging and developing economies for the global economy, paying special attention to the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The paper also reviews the participation of these countries in some key multilateral institutions for global governance, and compares it to its actual economic weight. An enhanced role in the decision making process of these multilateral institutions is indeed one of the primary objectives of the BRIC group. Finally we elaborate on some other global questions in which these countries also have common interests - like international reserves accumulation, international trade and climate change negotiations - and in which their increased participation has to go hand in hand with a greater consideration of collective interests.