International Panel Of Climate Change Research Articles

Sufficiency in European Climate Policies, four country NECPs analysed

Backgrounds Sufficiency, a concept acknowledged by the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), is often not included in climate-mitigation strategies. Its elements are, however, well known in different policy areas. Thus, there are good reasons to elevate sufficiency to a central element of national and international sustainability strategies. Methods This article, through the lens of the FULFILL project, aims to elucidate sufficiency and evaluate its integration into climate strategies via the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of four European countries: Denmark, France, Germany, and Italy. This shall offer insights into the current status of sufficiency policies and identify the best practices and areas for improvement. The analysis is based on the studies of sufficiency policies, identifying specific sufficiency measures. This leads to the development of a comprehensive overview and comparative analysis of how the four analysed countries incorporate sufficiency within their NECPs and to proposals for additional national sufficiency policies. The analysis focuses on policies that regulate social, infrastructural, and regulatory conditions that influence individual and collective behaviours. Results The article presents a clear and comprehensive analysis of the current tole of sufficiency policies in NECPs and their unused potential. Sufficiency policies are introduced in the countries analysed, but far from their potential to mitigate climate change. It also shows that existing sufficiency policies are primarily aiming at changing consumption and not to reduce consumption, such as reduced transport, reduced size of buildings. Another result is that some sufficiency policies are only introduced on local level by municipalities. Conclusion The conclusion is that some sufficiency policies are already integrated in national climate policies but their potentials are far from exhausted while other policies are hardly used, in particular policies to reduce consumption. This gives a large potential to increase sufficiency measures to strengthen climate policies and actions.

Business In (Action): The International Chamber of Commerce and Climate Change from Stockholm to Rio

This paper engages with the literature that has looked at the historical response to climate change among industries positioned to have had a far-reaching impact on changing the course of the climate crisis. While much of the historical research in this domain has focused on the role of big oil companies, the utility industry and conservative think tanks in the manufacturing of doubt regarding climate science and opposing ambitions climate policies, our focus is on the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) – the world’s largest transnational business association. Unlike individual multinational corporations, the ICC developed a close ties and collaborations with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which made ICC positioned to influence international policy discussions. This study finds that the ICC developed a dual strategy, which set aside climate change as the focus for discussion and business action. One strategy, led by ICC Environment Committee, involved intense collaboration with the United Nations and developing a business agenda for sustainable development. At the same time, the creation of the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 and the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC) in 1991, gave rise to a parallel strategy, led by ICC’s related oil companies. As this study finds, the ICC’s Energy Committee developed close ties to the Global Climate Coalition, a front group designed to combat the scientific evidence of climate change. The paper concludes that the ICC was able to delay meaningful regulatory response to climate change the between 1988-1992 by forming a broad coalition of competing interests and collaborating with agencies established under the auspices of the United Nations.

Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Abstract. Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) events, millennial-scale climate oscillations between stadial and interstadial conditions (of up to 10–15 ∘C in amplitude at high northern latitudes), occurred throughout the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3; 27.8–59.4 ka) period. The climate modelling community up to now has not been able to answer the question of whether our climate models are too stable to simulate D–O events. To address this, this paper lays the ground-work for a MIS3 D–O protocol for general circulation models which are used in the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. We review the following: D–O terminology, community progress on simulating D–O events in these IPCC-class models (processes and published examples), and evidence about the boundary conditions under which D–O events occur. We find that no model exhibits D–O-like behaviour under pre-industrial conditions. Some, but not all, models exhibit D–O-like oscillations under MIS3 and/or full glacial conditions. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet configurations are crucial. However most models have not run simulations of long enough duration to be sure which models show D–O-like behaviour, under either MIS3 or full glacial states. We propose a MIS3 baseline protocol at 34 ka, which features low obliquity values, medium to low MIS3 greenhouse gas values, and the intermediate ice sheet configuration, which our review suggests are most conducive to D–O-like behaviour in models. We also provide a protocol for a second freshwater (Heinrich-event-preconditioned) experiment, since previous work suggests that this variant may be helpful in preconditioning a state in models which is conducive to D–O events. This review provides modelling groups investigating MIS3 D–O oscillations with a common framework, which is aimed at (1) maximising the chance of the occurrence of D–O-like events in the simulations, (2) allowing more precise model–data evaluation, and (3) providing an adequate central point for modellers to explore model stability.

Climate change and reconstruction of Indonesia’s geographic basepoints: Reconfiguration of baselines and Indonesian Archipelagic Sea lanes

Indonesia is a state that is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, one of which is sea level rise. Based on data from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), sea level rises by an average of 2.5 mm every year. There are 92 outermost small islands of Indonesia that have the potential to sink due to rising sea levels. The existence of the small island is the point of withdrawal of the archipelagic baseline that connects one island to another. The impact of the sinking of the islands is a shift in the baseline and archipelagic sea lanes that will change the boundaries of Indonesia's maritime territorial sovereignty. Indonesia Government has deposited Government Regulation No. 37 of 2008 concerning the Basic Point of Coordinates for the Indonesian Archipelago to the United Nations Secretariat General. If there is a change or shift in the baseline withdrawal, Indonesia must reconstruct the baseline drawing which will also have an impact on changes in the Indonesian archipelagic sea lanes which are used as the determination of border areas with other states. In order to obtain clarity on territorial sovereignty regarding the reconfiguration of baselines, there are no clear guidelines, both in national and international law. The aim of this paper is to create a Geographic Basepoint Reconstruction Model of Indonesia by analyzing the outer islands of Indonesia that are sinking due to climate change using a Resource-Based Theory implementation in developing a Reconstruction Model for Indonesia's Geographic Baseline and Implementing baseline reconfiguration and Indonesian Archipelagic Sea Lane due to climate change.

Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios.

Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat, mainly caused by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe, is an emerging threat to wheat production in Korea under a changing climate. The disease occurrence and accumulation of associated trichothecene mycotoxins in wheat kernels strongly coincide with warm and wet environments during flowering. Recently, the International Panel for Climate Change released the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, we adopted GIBSIM, an existing mechanistic model developed in Brazil to estimate the risk infection index of wheat FHB, to simulate the potential FHB epidemics in Korea using the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios of CMIP6. The GIBSIM model simulates FHB infection risk from airborne inoculum density and infection frequency using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity during the flowering period. First, wheat heading dates, during which GIBSIM runs, were predicted over suitable areas of winter wheat cultivation using a crop development rate model for wheat phenology and downscaled SSP scenarios. Second, an integrated model combining all results of wheat suitability, heading dates, and FHB infection risks from the SSP scenarios showed a gradual increase in FHB epidemics towards 2100, with different temporal and spatial patterns of varying magnitudes depending on the scenarios. These results indicate that proactive management strategies need to be seriously considered in the near future to minimize the potential impacts of the FHB epidemic under climate change in Korea. Therefore, available wheat cultivars with early or late heading dates were used in the model simulations as a realistic adaptation measure. As a result, wheat cultivars with early heading dates showed significant decreases in FHB epidemics in future periods, emphasizing the importance of effective adaptation measures against the projected increase in FHB epidemics in Korea under climate change.

Comparison of projected rice blast epidemics in the Korean Peninsula between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios

Recently, the International Panel for Climate Change released the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The SSP scenarios result in significant changes to climate variables in climate projections compared to their predecessor, the representative concentration pathways from the CMIP5. Therefore, it is necessary to examine whether the CMIP6 scenarios differentially impact plant–disease ecosystems compared to the CMIP5 scenarios. In this study, we used the EPIRICE-LB model to simulate and compare projected rice blast disease epidemics in the Korean Peninsula using five selected family global climate models (GCMs) of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 for two forcing scenarios. We found a similar decrease in rice blast epidemics in both CMIP scenarios; however, this decrease was greater in the CMIP6 scenarios. In addition, distinctive epidemic trends were found in North Korea, where the rice blast epidemics increase until the mid-2040s but decrease thereafter until 2100, with different spatial patterns of varying magnitudes. Controlling devastating rice blast diseases will remain important during the next decades in North Korea, where appropriate chemical controls are unavailable due to chronic economic and political issues. Overall, our analyses using the new CMIP6 scenarios reemphasized the importance of developing effective control measures against rice blast for specific high-risk areas and the need for a universal impact and vulnerability assessment platform for plant–disease ecosystems that can be used with new climate change scenarios in the future.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03410-2.

NH3 and CO Emissions from Fifteen Euro 6d and Euro 6d-TEMP Gasoline-Fuelled Vehicles

Ammonia (NH3) plays a key role in atmospheric chemistry and largely contributes to the PM2.5 measured in urban areas around the globe. For that reason, the National Emission Ceilings directive, Gothenburg Protocol under the United Nations Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, and International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) directive required a reduction of the emissions of NH3. Nonetheless, the European Environment Agency (EEA) indicated that road transport emissions of NH3 have increased. Moreover, recent studies reported that, not only vehicle NH3 emissions are greater than agricultural emissions in areas that gather > 40% of the U.S. population, but urban emissions of NH3 for passenger cars are underestimated by a factor of 17 in UK. In this study, fifteen gasoline-fuelled vehicles, meeting the most recent European emission standards, Euro 6d or Euro 6d-TEMP, were investigated in laboratory tests over the type-approval worldwide-harmonized light-duty vehicles test cycle (WLTC), at 23 °C and −7 °C, as well as over the motorway cycle Bundesautobahn (BAB). Results show that all the vehicles tested emitted NH3 over the different duty cycles, and presented emissions level that are comparable to those previously reported for Euro 4–Euro 6b vehicles. Finally, good agreement between the CO and the NH3 emissions was registered during the acceleration events, and, in general, a fair correlation, with R2 > 0.75, was obtained, when comparing the CO and NH3 emissions of the studied vehicles.

Coastal adaptation to Sea Level Rise: An overview of Egypt's efforts

Coastal zones are recognized as priority areas for climate change adaptation. Without robust and effective adaptation, numerous coastal zones will be drastically affected. There is an ongoing need for coastal adaptation particularly, for the low-lying deltas, which are highly vulnerable to the coastal hazards-based Sea Level Rise (SLR). Worldwide, the national coastal strategies mainly focusing on the three coastal adaptation approaches issued by the International Panel of Climate Change (retreat, accommodation, and protection). The developed and developing countries are being made serious efforts to adapt to the SLR. This paper investigates the Egyptian efforts, best practices, and experiences in dealing with coastal erosion, flooding, and inundation-based SLR. The Egyptian national strategy for coastal adaptation mainly adopted the protection approach. Along the Nile Delta coast of Egypt, various national projects contain coastal adaptation measures were detected, such as seawalls, revetments, sand dunes, nourishment, and artificial sand dunes based on a geotextile sand-tube core using natural reed mats for sand trapping. In addition, different actions such as constructing modern fish farming, regular dredging for coastal lakes and lagoons, and enforcing the coastal road were observed. All provide defense systems. Most of these promising adaptation technologies, efforts, and actions show favorable responses to guarantee adequate protection against SLR hazards.

Importance of Protection Service Against Erosion and Storm Events Provided by Coastal Ecosystems Under Climate Change Scenarios

Increasing sea level rise (SLR), and frequency and intensity of storms, paired with degrading ecosystems, are exposing coastal areas to higher risks of damage by storm events. Coastal natural habitats, such as dunes or saltmarshes, can reduce exposure of coastlines to these events and help to reduce the impacts and the potential damage to coastal property. The goal of our study was to evaluate the current vulnerability of the Portuguese northern coast to erosion and flooding caused by extreme events and to assess the contribution of natural habitats in reducing both vulnerability and property damages considering SLR scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) Coastal Vulnerability model was used to produce an Exposure Index (EI) for the northern Portuguese coastline, for the current situation, and for future International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, considering the presence and absence of coastal habitats. Results showed an increase in exposure with rising sea levels and expansion of high vulnerability areas. Coastal habitats contributed to a 28% reduction of high exposed segments for the Current scenario, corresponding to a potential reduction of coastal property damage of 105 M€ during extreme events. For the SLR scenarios, coastal habitats could potentially reduce the amount of property damage by 190 M€ in 2050 and 285 M€ in 2100, considering RCP8.5 projections. This study highlighted the importance of natural habitats in protecting vulnerable coastlines and reducing the potential damages to properties from flooding. Such results can be incorporated in management plans and support decision-making toward implementing an ecosystem-based approach to increase the resilience of coastal communities to cope with future environmental changes.

Elites científicas do clima: Formação do campo em escala nacional e internacional

O presente artigo pretende discutir a importância das ciências do clima e sua conformação atual, defendendo que é importante retomar a temática das elites científicas para entender os rumos atuais da discussão sobre mudanças climáticas. A abordagem de Bourdieu sobre a temática do campo científico e as formas de acumulação de capital auxilia na compreensão das alterações das ciências meteorológicas frente aos desafios mais recentes das mudanças climáticas nas últimas décadas. O texto analisa o desenvolvimento das ciências do clima em escala internacional e o papel desempenhado pelo International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) na redistribuição dos créditos científicos consagrados na área. Ao final o texto trata do modo como as elites brasileiras vêm se reorganizando para se situar frente aos setores hegemônicos internacionais que comandam a agenda de pesquisa sobre mudanças climáticas.

Climate change impact on karstic aquifer hydrodynamics in southern Europe semi-arid region using the KAGIS model

Nowadays, there are many urban settlements in arid and semiarid areas supplied by groundwater from adjacent small aquifers. Climate projections with expected decreases in averages precipitation values jointly with increases in the frequency of heavy rainfall events does not show a clear pattern to how water resources in karstic aquifers are going to evolve. This paper, focused in the province of Alicante (Southeast of Spain), assesses the behaviour of a small karstic aquifer, the Mela aquifer, whose resources supply urban water consumption for close municipalities. We assess the hydrogeological response of the aquifer, through the KAGIS black-box GIS-based model, for the present climate conditions and for the long period analysing the four scenarios provided by the International Panel of Climate Change. Main results prove that, if we do not diminish the greenhouse gas emissions, the climate change impact on the hydrological response of the study aquifer shows a decrease in the flow rate from its unique spring and will be non-existent during the summer months. So, it will be necessary to design supply strategies for these municipalities and to carry out them, meeting budget restrictions and avoiding potential water shortages.

A Tax Coming from the IPCC Carbon Prices Cannot Change Consumption: Evidence from an Experiment

This article compares a socially-optimal tax coming from a model integrating consumers’ preferences for various milks, with a tax directly computed from carbon emissions of milks with carbon prices given by the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Regarding consumers’ preferences, we conducted an experiment in France for finding consumers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for different bottles coming from either cow’s milk or soy milk, under a regular or an organic process of production. This experiment shows higher WTPs for organic bottles than for regular bottles, and higher WTPs for soy milk than for cow’s milk. These WTPs were introduced into a model estimating the effects of regulatory instruments. From this model using WTPs, it was shown that, for milk coming from cows and soy, a tax on regular bottles and a subsidy on organic bottles maximized the consumers’ welfare. This tax on regular bottles was stronger than the tax that was alternatively estimated with the emissions and IPCC carbon prices. Indeed, a tax based on the IPCC carbon prices seemed too weak for efficiently changing the consumption towards sustainable products.

Effect of soil tillage and N fertilization on N2O mitigation in maize in the Brazilian Cerrado.

The management system of soils and nitrogen application can cause impacts on the N2O emissions produced by the agricultural sector. In the establishment of practices of greenhouse gas mitigation for this sector, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of soil tillage, with and without N fertilization, on N2O emissions from Oxisols under rainfed maize in the Brazilian Cerrado region. The managements were of monoculture maize under conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT), with (1) and without (0) application of N fertilizer (0 and 257 kg N ha-1). From November 2014 to October 2015, gas emissions were measured. The soil and climate variables were measured and related to the N2O fluxes. In the N-fertilized treatments, N2O fluxes were higher (P < 0.01), ranging from -21 μg m-2 h-1 to 548 μg m-2 h-1 N2O under conventional tillage and from -21 μg m-2 h-1 to 380 μg m-2 h-1 N2O under no-tillage, compared with -6 to 93 μg m-2 h-1 N2O from systems without N application. There was a combined effect of mineral N and water-filled pore space for most N2O fluxes. The emission factors of N2O during maize cultivation were lower than the standard factor (1%) established by the International Panel of Climate Change. During the plant crop cycle, 30% less N2O was emitted from the N-fertilized no-tillage than from the conventional tillage. For the total cumulative N2O (crop cycle + fallow), the N2O emissions from NT1 and CT1 were not different, but 10× higher than those from the respective crops without N fertilization. To the emissions per unit of grain yield, CT1 and NT1 emitted 769 and 391 mg N2O kg-1 grain produced, respectively, and NT1 was most efficient in fertilizer-into-product conversion. Under maize cultivation, the soil acted as N2O source, regardless of the management.

Rainfall trends and variation in the Maasai Mara ecosystem and their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics.

Rainfall exerts a controlling influence on the availability and quality of vegetation and surface water for herbivores in African terrestrial ecosystems. We analyse temporal trends and variation in rainfall in the Maasai Mara ecosystem of East Africa and infer their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics. The data originated from 15 rain gauges in the Mara region (1965–2015) and one station in Narok Town (1913–2015), in Kenya’s Narok County. This is the first comprehensive and most detailed analysis of changes in rainfall in the region of its kind. Our results do not support the current predictions of the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) of very likely increases of rainfall over parts of Eastern Africa. The dry season rainfall component increased during 1935–2015 but annual rainfall decreased during 1962–2015 in Narok Town. Monthly rainfall was more stable and higher in the Mara than in Narok Town, likely because the Mara lies closer to the high-precipitation areas along the shores of Lake Victoria. Predominantly deterministic and persistent inter-annual cycles and extremely stable seasonal rainfall oscillations characterize rainfall in the Mara and Narok regions. The frequency of severe droughts increased and floods intensified in the Mara but droughts became less frequent and less severe in Narok Town. The timings of extreme droughts and floods coincided with significant periodicity in rainfall oscillations, implicating strong influences of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns on regional rainfall variability. These changing rainfall patterns have implications for animal population dynamics. The increase in dry season rainfall during 1935–2015 possibly counterbalanced the impacts of resource scarcity generated by the declining annual rainfall during 1965–2015 in Narok Town. However, the increasing rainfall extremes in the Mara can be expected to create conditions conducive to outbreaks of infectious animal diseases and reduced vegetation quality for herbivores, particularly when droughts and floods persist over multiple years. The more extreme wet season rainfall may also alter herbivore space use, including migration patterns.

Including GHG emissions from mangrove forests LULUC in LCA: a case study on shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

PurposeMangrove forests have been recognized as important regulators of greenhouse gases (GHGs), yet the resulting land use and land-use change (LULUC) emissions have rarely been accounted for in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies. The present study therefore presents up-to-date estimates for GHG emissions from mangrove LULUC and applies them to a case study of shrimp farming in Vietnam.MethodsTo estimate the global warming impacts of mangrove LULUC, a combination of the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, the Net Committed Emissions, and the Missed Potential Carbon Sink method were used. A literature review was then conducted to characterize the most critical parameters for calculating carbon losses, missed sequestration, methane fluxes, and dinitrogen monoxide emissions.Results and discussionOur estimated LUC emissions from mangrove deforestation resulted in 124 t CO2 ha−1 year−1, assuming IPCC’s recommendations of 1 m of soil loss, and 96% carbon oxidation. In addition to this, 1.25 t of carbon would no longer be sequestered annually. Discounted over 20 years, this resulted in total LULUC emissions of 129 t CO2 ha−1 year−1 (CV = 0.441, lognormal distribution (ln)). Shrimp farms in the Mekong Delta, however, can today operate for 50 years or more, but are 1.5 m deep (50% oxidation). In addition to this, Asian tiger shrimp farming in mixed mangrove concurrent farms (the only type of shrimp farm that resulted in mangrove deforestation since 2000 in our case study) resulted in 533 kg methane and 1.67 kg dinitrogen monoxide per hectare annually. Consequently, the LULUC GHG emissions resulted in 184 and 282 t CO2-eq t−1 live shrimp at farm gate, using mass and economic allocation, respectively. These GHG emissions are about an order of magnitude higher than from semi-intensive or intensive shrimp farming systems. Limitations in data quality and quantity also led us to quantify the uncertainties around our emission estimates, resulting in a CV of between 0.4 and 0.5.ConclusionsOur results reinforce the urgency of conserving mangrove forests and the need to quantify uncertainties around LULUC emissions. It also questions mixed mangrove concurrent shrimp farming, where partial removal of mangrove forests is endorsed based upon the benefits of partial mangrove conservation and maintenance of certain ecosystem services. While we recognize that these activities limit the chances of complete removal, our estimates show that large GHG emissions from mangrove LULUC question the sustainability of this type of shrimp farming, especially since mixed mangrove farming only provide 5% of all farmed shrimp produced in Vietnam.

Modeling approaches for agricultural N2O fluxes from large scale areas: A case for sugarcane crops in the state of São Paulo - Brazil

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change are issues that currently receive a great deal of attention, both from society and the scientific community. Combustion of fossil fuels is considered the main reason for the increasing concentrations of GHG in the atmosphere and therefore, the main cause of climate change. In such context, biofuels are usually presented as an energy source that considerably reduces GHG emissions when compared to the use of fossil fuels. However, some issues of biofuel production such as the emissions associated with both change in land use and the use of nitrogen fertilizers are still under scrutiny. The focus of this study is related to N2O soil emissions associated with sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil. Signatory countries of the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to prepare and periodically update an inventory of GHG emissions and sinks. The International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), through the Agriculture, Forest and Other Land Use (AFOLU), establishes guidelines to calculate N2O soil emissions on three different levels, or tiers. The simplest Tier 1 uses few equations and default emissions factors. The most elaborated, Tier 3, uses computation modeling, field measurements and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This study proposes using the limited data available, procedures for Tier 3 estimates of N2O soil emissions in sugarcane crops in the state of São Paulo - Brazil. It also compares N2O sugarcane emissions calculated by Tier 1 and Tier 3 methods. Results show that in most cases the difference in results from Tier 1 and Tier 3 methods are beyond the error margin of the Brazilian Inventory.

Greenhouse gas calculator at farm level addressed to the growers

When assessing agricultural products using life cycle assessment (LCA), the farmers play a key role as they have first-hand information to understanding the activities involved in the assessed systems. However, the compilation of these data can be tiresome and complicated. To engage farmers in the LCA, a web tool (eFoodPrint Env®) was designed to facilitate their tasks as much as possible, seeking the trade-off between comprehensiveness and time consumption without affecting the quality. The model relies on primary data for the specific parcel and growing season; it starts with the ancillary materials extraction and ends with the transport of products to the corresponding cooperative. The model excludes the infrastructure except in the cases of protected crops including greenhouses. To build the inventory, the web tool guides the user through a questionnaire divided in cultivation, machinery, fertilization, plant treatment, and transport. Carbon footprint is computed with global warming potentials of the International Panel of Climate Change following the norm PAS2050. The calculations behind the web tool have the following modules: (1) farming input and output flows; (2) database and default data; (3) greenhouse infrastructure; (4) impact assessment; (5) uncertainty analysis, and (6) results module. The web tool is already in use and can be applied to most of agricultural facilities. Examples of estates of corn, nectarine, grape, and tomato are herein showed. The application displays the results distributed in the different stages considered in each product system, and the scores include error bars derived from the uncertainty analysis. Corn production showed the highest carbon footprint per kilogram of product, with a high contribution due to fertilizer production and application. The carbon footprint of tomato production in low-tunnel greenhouse showed nearly 30 % of impact related only to the greenhouse structure. Regarding uncertainty, the worst value is also associated to the corn production for which the most uncertain activities have more influence (fertilizer and transport). The design of the tool has the objective of meeting the requirements of data quality and comprehensiveness with the reality of the farms. The tool is generic enough to be applied to different cropping systems, enabling the generation of simple reports with the results of the analysis. The modular structures of both data entry and model calculation allow the identification of potential sources of uncertainty and hotspots within the studied life cycle stages.

Physical constrains and productivity in the future Arctic Ocean

Todays physical oceanography and primary and secondary production was investigated for the entire Arctic Ocean with the physical-biologically coupled SINMOD model. To obtain indications on the effect of climate change in the 21th century the magnitude of change, and where and when these may take place SINMOD was forced with down-scaled climate trajectories of the International Panel of Climate Change with the A1B climate scenario which appears to predict an average global atmospheric temperature increase of 3.5 to 4 °C at the end of this century. It is projected that some surface water features of the physical oceanography in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent regions will change considerably. The largest changes will occur along the continuous domains of Pacific and in particular regarding Atlantic Water advection and the inflow shelves. Withdrawal of ice will increase primary production, but stratification will persist or, for the most, get stronger as a function of ice-melt and thermal warming along the inflow shelves. Thus the nutrient dependent new and harvestable production will not increase proportionally with increasing photosynthetic active radiation. The greatest increases in primary production are found along the Eurasian perimeter of the Arctic Ocean (up to 40 g C m-2 y-1) and in particular in the northern Barents and Kara Seas (40-80 g C m-2 y-1) where less ice-cover implies less Arctic Water and thus less stratification. Along the shelf break engirdling the Arctic Ocean upwelling and vertical mixing supplies nutrients to the euphotic zone when ice-cover withdraws northwards. The production of Arctic copepods along the Eurasian perimeter of the Arctic Ocean will increase significantly by the end of this century (2-4 g C m-2 y-1). Primary and secondary production will decrease along the southern sections of the continuous advection domains of Pacific and Atlantic Water due to increasing thermal stratification. In the central Arctic Ocean primary production will not increase much due to stratification-induced nutrient limitation.

Oxyfuel combustion for CO2 capture in power plants

Oxyfuel combustion is one of the leading technologies considered for capturing CO2 from power plants with CCS. This involves the process of burning the fuel with nearly pure oxygen instead of air. In order to control the flame temperature, some part of the flue gas are recycled back into the furnace/boiler.Since the publication of the Special Report on CO2 Capture and Storage by the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 2005), the development of oxyfuel combustion technology has progressed significantly and could be considered at par in terms of technology maturity as compared to other leading CO2 capture technologies.This paper presents an overview to the current state-of-the-art technology on the development of oxyfuel combustion applied to (a) PC and CFB coal fired power plants and (b) gas turbine based power plant. It should be noted that it is not the intention of this paper to provide a comprehensive review but to present what have been achieved in the past 10 years of RD&D efforts.For coal fired power plant using oxyfuel combustion, this paper primarily presents the different development aspects of the burners and boilers (combustion and heat transfer), emissions, operation of the plant (i.e. start-up and turndown) and its integration to the ASU and CPU.For gas turbine based power plant using oxyfuel combustion, the different GT cycles are described, looking at the different aspects in combustion, emissions, cycle efficiency and development of the turbomachineries.Also presented in this paper is a snapshot to what we have learned from the operation of the different large-scale pilot plants and development of large scale demonstration projects worldwide.The paper concludes by presenting the potential of this technology and highlighting the importance of realizing large scale demonstration plant as a necessary step to achieve its ultimate goal of technology commercialization.

Brown trout thermal niche and climate change: expected changes in the distribution of cold‐water fish in central Spain

AbstractThis paper addresses the determination of the realized thermal niche and the effects of climate change on the range distribution of two brown trout populations inhabiting two streams in the Duero River basin (Iberian Peninsula) at the edge of the natural distribution area of this species. For reaching these goals, new methodological developments were applied to improve reliability of forecasts. Water temperature data were collected using 11 thermographs located along the altitudinal gradient, and they were used to model the relationship between stream temperature and air temperature along the river continuum. Trout abundance was studied using electrofishing at 37 sites to determine the current distribution. The Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4·5 and RCP8·5 change scenarios adopted by the International Panel of Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report were used for simulations and local downscaling in this study. We found more reliable results using the daily mean stream temperature than maximum daily temperature and their respective 7 days moving average to determine the distribution thresholds. Thereby, the observed limits of the summer distribution of brown trout were linked to thresholds between 18·1 and 18·7 °C. These temperatures characterize a realized thermal niche narrower than the physiological thermal range. In the most unfavourable climate change scenario, the thermal habitat loss of brown trout increased to 38% (Cega stream) and 11% (Pirón stream) in the upstream direction at the end of the century; however, at the Cega stream, the range reduction could reach 56% due to the effect of a ‘warm‐window’ opening in the piedmont reach. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.