International Oil Price Changes Research Articles

Novel solid oxide fuel cell system integrating adsorption cooling, heating, and carbon dioxide fertilization for greenhouse tomato production

Fuel cells have been widely used for power sources in the power plant, building, and transportation sectors, while few attempts have been made to use fuel cells for agriculture. Heating costs make up a high proportion of agricultural operating costs, and fossil fuels are the primary fuels used, which affects agricultural income according to changes in international oil prices. This study proposes a novel solid oxide fuel cell(SOFC) system integrates adsorption cooling, heating, and carbon dioxide fertilization for greenhouse tomato production. To confirm the superiority of the proposed system (Case 3) in terms of efficiency, its energy consumption is compared with that of the reference systems (cases 1 and 2). Case 1 uses only the air-cooled scroll chiller while Cases 2 and 3 utilize both the air-cooled scroll chiller and the adsorption chiller as a heating and cooling device for the horticulture. In order to reduce the energy consumption for the horticulture thermal management, electrical and thermal energy required for the adsorption chiller are supplied by the SOFC. Case 3 supplied SOFC exhaust gas to fertilize carbon dioxide in horticulture for photosynthesis of the tomato. To determine the heating and cooling loads for horticulture, horticulture energy modeling has been developed based on target temperature, weather data, and tomato evapotranspiration using TRNSYS®. The total power consumption in Case 3 is reduced by up to 12 % during the heating season compared to Case 1, but it increases by up to 6.2 % during the cooling season. For Case 2, there is a savings of 9.8 % during the heating season but an increase of up to 4.1 % during the cooling season compared to Case 1. The study contributes to reduction of the energy consumption for the greenhouse crops production. This finally results in the significant reduction of the carbon emission and the enhancement of the economics in agricultural field.

The Impact of International Oil Price Shock on China's Economic Growth

This article takes the impact of international oil price shocks on China's economic growth as the research object, and studies the impact mechanism of international oil price shocks on China's economic development status, providing practical value for the formulation of relevant policies in China. This article selects monthly data from January 2007 to December 2023 as the research interval, and uses the SVAR model to decompose the changes in international oil prices into three different sources of structural oil supply and demand shocks, namely oil supply shocks, oil total demand shocks, and oil specific demand shocks. The research results show that overall, the impact of international oil price shocks on China's economic growth is relatively low. International oil price shocks will have a negative impact on China's economic growth, and the average contribution of the three structural oil supply and demand shocks to China's economic growth does not exceed 13.1%. The impact of specific oil demand shocks on China's economic growth is the greatest, followed by oil supply shocks and total oil demand shocks, which indirectly reflect that China's economic growth is mainly influenced by its own factors.

Is the Influence of International Oil Price Changes on Economic Growth Significant in India?

The changes in the price of oil by creating supply-side shocks, inflation risks, and exchange rate risks, generate havoc in the development process of oil-importing countries like India. In this perspective, this study examined the degree and direction of connection among the price of oil and economic growth in India while controlling for the influences of exchange rate, real interest rate, rate of inflation, net inflows of foreign direct investment, and trade openness. The work uses the auto-regressive distributed lag bounds test approach and provides evidence in support of the negative effect of oil price changes on the long-run growth of the Indian economy when net inflows of foreign direct investment and foreign exchange rate exert statistically significant negative effects on this relationship. However, trade openness has a statistically significant positive effect. It is further observed that this long-run relationship has a convergence tendency towards the equilibrium value through short-run adjustments, thereby making the estimated relationship stable. The implication is that international oil price fluctuations can be used to predict the country's long-run economic growth. Besides, a policy effort is required to promote alternative energy consumption at home to keep oil demand under control. Furthermore, trade policies are required to be revisited to boost exports by the country to accommodate the negative effects of increases in the price of oil at the international level on economic growth.

Oil Shocks, External Adjustment, and Country Portfolio

AbstractThis study examines the intertemporal nature of countries’ external adjustment by using two oil income shocks with different timings: giant oil discovery news shocks and contemporaneous oil revenue shocks from international oil price changes. Empirical estimates using a large panel of countries support the intertemporal theory. Net foreign assets hike immediately upon oil revenue shocks, but decline for the first 5 years after oil discoveries and rebound subsequently. These adjustments are largely through the current account but partially stabilized by valuation effects for oil revenue shocks. Oil discoveries attract FDI inflows, while oil revenue shocks increase foreign debt assets holdings.

Modelling exchange rate volatility in turbulent periods: The role of oil prices in Nigeria

The oil price has been increasingly identified as a key fundamental in the dynamics of exchange rates. As a result, we investigate how changes in oil prices affect the dynamics of exchange rates during crisis periods. We hypothesised that the potential of oil prices as an amplifier of exchange rate volatility during crises varies for economic and non-economic crises with divergent origins. Consequently, we classified the crisis sample into two sub-samples: the great recession caused by the 2007 global financial crisis (GFC) is defined as a crisis sample with an economic origin, while the great lockdown caused by the recent COVID-19 outbreaks defined our crisis period with a non-economic origin. We used the GARCH model and its many extensions and noted three findings that strengthened our contributions to the empirical analysis of exchange rate volatility. First, we show that the divergent origins of economic and non-economic crises matter in terms of the extent to which they heighten exchange rate volatility. Second, the persistence of exchange rate volatility during COVID-19 is exacerbated by changes in international oil prices. Finally, our finding of varying dynamics of persistent (transient) exchange rate volatility across different samples of turbulent periods provides investors with evidence-based insights not to generalise their portfolio selection strategy amidst economic crises of different origins.

Synergistic Effects of International Oil Price Fluctuations and Carbon Tax Policies on the Energy-Economy-Environment System in China.

Catalyzed by COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, oil prices fluctuate dramatically on the worldwide market. Both international oil price changes and carbon tax policies have a direct impact on energy costs, thus influencing energy security and emission reduction impacts. Therefore, assessing the interaction effects of international oil price variations and carbon tax policies can assist in resolving the competing challenges of energy security and carbon emission reduction. The impact of international oil price fluctuations on China's energy-economic-environment system under the baseline scenario and carbon taxation scenario is analyzed by constructing a computable general equilibrium model comprising six modules: production, trade, institutions, price, environment, and equilibrium. The findings indicate that, in addition to reducing high-carbon energy consumption and increasing demand for clean electricity, rising international oil prices have a negative effect on real GDP, resulting in lower output in sectors other than construction, and a positive effect on the environmental system by driving carbon emission reductions. In contrast, decreasing international oil prices have the opposite effect. Nevertheless, the impact of rising and decreasing international oil prices is asymmetrical, with the positive shock effect being smaller than the negative. The carbon tax policy can effectively offset the increase in carbon emissions caused by the decline in international oil prices, which is conducive to promoting the development of clean energy, while simultaneously causing an increase in product prices and arousing a contraction in consumer demand, which has a limited negative impact on the macroeconomy.

Can Major Public Health Emergencies Affect Changes in International Oil Prices?

In order to deepen the understanding of the impact of major public health emergencies on the oil market and to enhance the risk response capability, this study analyzed the logical relationship between major public health emergencies and international oil price changes, identified the change points, and calculated the probability of abrupt changes to international oil prices. Based on monthly data during six major public health emergencies from 2009 to 2020, this study built a product partition model. The results show that only the influenza A (H1N1) and COVID-19 pandemics were significant reasons for abrupt changes in international oil prices. Furthermore, the wild poliovirus epidemic, the Ebola epidemic, the Zika epidemic, and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had limited effects. Overall, the outbreak of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in major global economies has a more pronounced impact on international oil prices.

운영자원 규모 및 고객서비스 수준을 동시 고려한 운송 라우트 설계

Purpose Among the costs incurred by operating a logistics center, shipping costs vary depending on changes in international oil prices, development of vehicle technology, and optimization of delivery routes. As a result, they suggest ways to reduce shipping costs. Methods In this work, we propose a study that provides a delivery network design that can be considered in the design of a real delivery network by deriving an optimal solution that satisfies the objective function through genetic algorithms. Results The experimental results showed that the increase in operating resource t is highly correlated with operating cost and CSL. As the increase in operating resource t decreases the trend of CSL growth, the establishment of operating resource to maintain CSL 100% is very inefficient. Conclusion For companies considering changes in logistics network design and operation resources, it was important to establish mid-term or long-term business plan targets for companies and to find and make decisions where logistics operating costs and CSLs conflict to an appropriate level.

Multi-Time Scale Spillover Effect of International Oil Price Fluctuation on China’s Stock Markets

With the continuous increase of China’s foreign-trade dependence on crude oil and the accelerating integration of the international crude oil market and the Chinese finance market, the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on China’s stock markets increasingly attracts the attention of the public. In order to explore the impact of international oil price fluctuation on China’s stock markets and the time-varying spillover differences of industry sectors, this study proposes three research hypotheses and constructs a multi-time scale analysis framework based on wavelet analysis and a time-varying t-Copula model. In this paper, we use the Shanghai Composite Index as the representative of a general trend of the stock market, and we use the stock index of the China Securities Industry as the counterpart of industrial sectors. Based on the data from 5 January 2005 to 31 May 2020, this paper measures and analyzes the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on China’s stock markets, under different volatility periods. The results show that, firstly, the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on the Chinese stock markets is different. In the short and medium volatility period, the changes in international oil price are ahead of the changes in the Chinese stock markets, while the latter is ahead of the former under long-term fluctuations. Secondly, the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on China’s industry stock indexes is persistent. As the time scale increases, the tail dependency will increase. Finally, the impact of risk events aggravates the volatility of the stock markets in the short-term, while the mid- to long-term impact mainly affects the volatility trend. Investment risk control can make overall arrangement on the basis of the characteristics of oil price impact under different fluctuation stages.

Rockets and feathers behaviour in the Spanish gasoline and diesel market: New evidence

AbstractIn this paper we analyse the potential asymmetric response of retail prices for gasoline and diesel‐fuel to changes in oil prices for the Spanish economy and its relation with the so‐called ‘rockets and feathers’ behaviour. We show that the assumption made by previous studies, which use as the key explanatory variable the sign –positive or negative‐ of the change in international oil prices, is inadequate for the Spanish case and the magnitude of the change in international oil prices is also relevant. For small changes in international oil prices there is neither price asymmetry nor rockets and feathers behavior in the retail markets. However, price asymmetries in line with rockets and feathers behavior in retail gasoline and gasoil markets are present when these changes exceed a certain threshold. Following Martín‐Moreno et al. (2018) we first apply an Auto‐regressive Error Correction Model and endogenously estimate the threshold triggering the rockets and feathers behaviour. A time‐varying nature for the dynamic response of retail prices to oil price shocks is revealed when we estimate the TAR‐ECM model using rolling windows. Hence, in a second stage, we use a Markov‐switching estimation of the model to test the robustness of the results given its suitability to changing environments. This study could have relevant policy implications for the Spanish gasoline and gasoil retail markets due to the ongoing debate on the existence of a rockets and feathers behavior in gasoline and gasoil retail markets between the Spanish regulatory body and the oil companies.

Analysis on the Impact of International Oil Price Changes on Kazakhstan's Economy

The oil resource is one of necessary resources for the economic development of a country. Whether for developed or developing countries, the oil reserve is an important issue for national economic development. Kazakhstan is one of countries with the country's economic development mostly driven by oil export, and the international oil price changes have a great impact on its economic lifeline.

Income and Population Growth

Do populations grow as countries become richer? In this study we estimate the effects on population growth of shocks to national income that are plausibly exogenous and unlikely to be driven by technological change. For a panel of over 139 countries spanning the period 1960–2007, we interact changes in international oil prices with countries’ average net‐export shares of oil in GDP. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, we find that this measure of oil price induced income growth is positively associated with population growth. The IV estimates indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in GDPper capita growth over a 10‐year period increases countries’ population growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Furthermore, we find that this population effect results from both a positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on infant and child mortality.

Oil prices and stock market price in Nigeria

This paper examined the relationship between oil prices (international oil price and domestic oil price) and stock market price in Nigeria for the period spanning 1985:1 to 2010:4. The study utilised the Johansen's multivariate cointegration test and the vector error correction model (VECM). The Johansen's test showed that the variables are cointegrated, and the cointegration equation revealed that oil prices have significant relationship with stock market price in the long run. The VECM estimate only revealed a unidirectional causality from stock market price to international oil price in the long run. A unidirectional causality was also observed from domestic oil price to stock market price in the long run. The study recommended that policymakers, financial analyst and shareholders should into cognizance changes in international oil price and domestic oil price in their financial decisions given the significant impact of oil prices on stock market price in Nigeria.

Income and Population Growth

Do populations grow as countries become richer? In this paper we estimate the effects on population growth of shocks to national income that are plausibly exogenous and unlikely to be driven by technological change. For a panel of over 139 countries spanning the period 1960-2007 we interact changes in international oil prices with countries' average net oil export shares in GDP. Controlling for country and time fixed effects, we find that this measure of oil price induced income growth is positively associated with population growth. The IV estimates indicate that a one percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth over a ten year period increases countries' population growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Further, we find that this population effect results from both a positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on infant and child mortality.

The effects of oil prices on the price indices in Taiwan: International or domestic oil prices matter?

This study employs the multivariate threshold model developed by Tsay (1998) to examine the effects of international and domestic oil prices on the price indices in Taiwan using monthly data from January 1999 to December 2011. The results show that changes in domestic oil prices do not Granger cause changes in the price indices when the oil price change exceeds the threshold level. However, international oil price shocks still affect the wholesale price index through the effects of announcement and expectation. Therefore, controlling domestic oil prices to prevent volatility in the price indices is ineffective. If we focus on the period when the left-wing party is in power, we also find that changes in international oil prices have more critical effects on the price indices than changes in domestic oil prices. However, the lead-lag relationship between changes in domestic oil prices and changes in the price indices vanishes except with respect to the transportation category where the consumer price index is affected by domestic oil prices. This result may be due to the government's extensive intervention in setting oil prices.

A empirical study of changes in international crude oil spot price relationship between Taiwan stock prices

Previous studies have shown correlation between changes in international oil prices on stock returns and the stock market has some of. However, these studies often do not obey the country is located in North America, Britain, Australia and other areas of the developed economies and the accumulation of the main level of the stock market conducted. In this study, international relations, oil prices and stock indices, the Taiwan stock market did have some of the current impact of. Results of the study provide evidence of the nature, scale and scope of the relationship between the global oil prices, stock returns and stock index in Taiwan. Therefore, it has been found that disclosure of signifi cant diff erences between oil shocks across time and companies. The purpose of the survey is to provide a complete analysis of play, the relationship between oil prices and the Taiwan Stock Index, which aims to fi nd out whether such a relationship exists, whether a good correlation with the conclusions of Taiwan's economy. The questionnaire aimed to answer the question to study in order to conduct a survey to assess the results of the study.

A CGE analysis of oil price change

As Chinese economy system has been depended more on the import of petroleum with the development of China, the change in the price of international oil have caused concern among economists and policy makers. This paper is to present a financial Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy which integrates real economy and financial sectors, and to apply it to quantitatively evaluate the impacts on Chinese economy caused by international oil price changes. And the model endogenously determines the exchange rate, covering fixed, partially flexible, and completely flexile exchange rate system to consider the effect of foreign oil price changes from the point of view of macro and industrial aspects. Finally, this paper presents concluding remarks.

Fuelling Growth: What Drives Energy Demand in Developing Countries?

This paper investigates the relationship between energy demand, economic growth and prices in 24 non-OECD countries and three sectors from 1978-2003. We estimate linear and non-linear income andprice elasticities, using time fixed effects to control for unobserved dynamic effects such as technological change. We also test for asymmetric responses to price changes. The analysis leads to the following conclusions. First, the income elasticity of energy demand is high and increases with income, both on the country and the sector level. Second, energy demand is more responsive to end-use price than international oil price changes. Third, the price elasticity of energy demand increases with the price level. This result, driven by the residential and agricultural sector, is new to the literature for developing countries, and is consistent with the hypothesis of stronger responsiveness to high energy prices. Finally, we find that after including time fixed effects, allowing for price asymmetry adds little to the results.

International oil price changes: impact of oil prices on growth and inflation in the EU/OECD

This paper uses an open economy DSGE model to analyse the short and long run quantitative impact of a permanent oil price increase for output and inflation in the euro area and compares the results to the predictions of other models currently in use. Special emphasis is devoted to the issue of stagflation. It is found that with standard monetary feedback rules as currently estimated for the euro area, there is no severe inflation risk. The paper also addresses the issue to what extent there is a short run trade off between inflation and output with an adverse supply shock.