International Monetary Fund World Research Articles

The Effect of the War in Ukraine on Global Activity and Inflation

Global geopolitical risks have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Investors, market participants, and policymakers expect that the war will exert a drag on the global economy while pushing up inflation, with a sharp increase in uncertainty and risks of severe adverse outcomes. As an example of these concerns, the April 2022 edition of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook contains more than 200 mentions of the word "war."

Commitment and innovation on the road to people-centred PHC financing

Commitment and innovation on the road to people-centred PHC financing

Non-Revenue Water in Malaysia: Influence of Water Distribution Pipe Types

Reducing non-revenue water (NRW) within a water distribution network may lead to significant water savings. Most existing literature tend to focus on the design and implementation aspects of NRW loss through better management of leaks, reservoir overflow, and water theft. In contrast, this paper examines the association between the various water pipe types and their respective impact on NRW loss in an emerging country. Malaysia is currently listed under emerging and developing economies category in the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Database (October 2020). A correlation analysis is carried out using historical data obtained from the Malaysian water authority, covering fiscal years 2013 to 2017 (inclusive of both years). Further analysis is carried out by measuring the number of cases reported for two selected states in relation to the type of pipe materials used. Results show that there is a significant correlation between mild steel and polyethylene pipes to NRW loss. This study provides a better understanding of how water pipe types affect NRW loss, which is pertinent to developing best practices in the marketplace to manage NRW loss and protect water resources.

Priorities for the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of 2021: statement of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission

Priorities for the COVID-19 pandemic at the start of 2021: statement of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission

Reimagining India's health system: a Lancet Citizens’ Commission

Reimagining India's health system: a Lancet Citizens’ Commission

Figurative Language of Cinema World in Joko Widodo Speech

This research titled Figurative Language in Joko Widodo Speech. The purpose of this research is to analyze and describe the figure of speech in Joko Widodo speech, the types of figurative language and its meaning of his speech. A qualitative method was used to classify and analyze the data. The technique used in collecting the data was searching videos of Joko Widodo speech. The data used Perrine (1963) and Taylors theories (1981: 167) that many types of figurative language that divide into three classifications namely comparison and substitution, representation by substitution, and contrast by the discrepancy. The data was taken from Joko Widodo Speech in Annual Meeting International Monetary Fund-World Bank in Bali, World Economic ASEAN Forum in Hanoi and US-ASEAN Forum. The author found 9 figurative languages in Joko Widodo speech in the international event; there were 7 allusions, 1 metaphor, and 1 assonance. The conclusion of this research, the using of figurative language is an alternative to implied the literal meaning which can attract the readers or listeners attention and evoke their imagination.

ANALISIS KAPASITAS RUNWAY BANDARA I GUSTI NGURAH RAI MENGGUNAKAN TEORI ANTREAN

Bali, as one of the world's tourism destination, located separately from other islands in Indonesia. Many tourists travel to Bali by airplane, and I Gusti Ngurah Rai Airport is the only international airport that serves as the main gate to Bali. There are situations in which the airport's runway often has to deal with an extensive queue for both landing and departure, which results in flight delays. Flight delays have caused some problems such as ruin airlines reputation and decline demand by passangers. The aim of the research is to analyze the efficiency of I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport's runway so the airport service can be optimized using queueing theory. In this research, there were four categories used: the high season in July 2018, the special event Annual Meeting International Monetary Fund-World Bank in October 2018, the low season in February 2019, and the overall data. In this research, it was found that the model used in this airport’s runway is (M/G/I):(FIFO/?/?). This model is not in a steady-state condition, with the level of bustle approximately around 177% until 191%. Therefore, an additional runway is recommended and also the runway service needs to be accelerated for optimal condition.

Effect of Income Inequality on Health Indicators in Nigeria (1980-2014)

The rising profile of income inequality and the challenges it poses on the health of the entire citizenry in Nigeria over the pass years has brought about an increase in mortality rate and low life expectancy. Thus, this study examined the effect of income inequality, per capita income, education level and savings level on health indicators proxied by mortality and life expectancy rate in Nigeria using stationary, co-integration test and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) method. The study used time series data from International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook which spanned from 1980-2014. The unit root test applied to the variables showed that the variables were stationary in the short run and co-integration test confirmed a long run relationship between the variables. Furthermore, the study showed that income inequality has an inverse effect on mortality rate. However, direct relationship existed between income inequality and life expectancy rate in the model. Finally, per capita income, education level and saving level employed as control variables have positive effect on health indicators in Nigeria. The study therefore concluded that health indicators are highly influenced by income inequality, per capita income, education level and savings level in Nigeria.

Modelling suicide and unemployment: a longitudinal analysis covering 63 countries, 2000–11

As with previous economic downturns, there has been debate about an association between the 2008 economic crisis, rising unemployment, and suicide. Unemployment directly affects individuals' health and, unsurprisingly, studies have proposed an association between unemployment and suicide. However, a statistical model examining the relationship between unemployment and suicide by considering specific time trends among age-sex-country subgroups over wider world regions is still lacking. We aimed to enhance knowledge of the specific effect of unemployment on suicide by analysing global public data classified according to world regions. We retrospectively analysed public data for suicide, population, and economy from the WHO mortality database and the International Monetary Fund's world economic outlook database from 2000 to 2011. We selected 63 countries based on sample size and completeness of the respective data and extracted the information about four age groups and sex. To check stability of findings, we conducted an overall random coefficient model including all study countries and four additional models, each covering a different world region. Despite differences in the four world regions, the overall model, adjusted for the unemployment rate, showed that the annual relative risk of suicide decreased by 1·1% (95% CI 0·8-1·4) per year between 2000 and 2011. The best and most stable final model indicated that a higher suicide rate preceded a rise in unemployment (lagged by 6 months) and that the effect was non-linear with higher effects for lower baseline unemployment rates. In all world regions, the relative risk of suicide associated with unemployment was elevated by about 20-30% during the study period. Overall, 41,148 (95% CI 39,552-42,744) suicides were associated with unemployment in 2007 and 46,131 (44,292-47,970) in 2009, indicating 4983 excess suicides since the economic crisis in 2008. Suicides associated with unemployment totalled a nine-fold higher number of deaths than excess suicides attributed to the most recent economic crisis. Prevention strategies focused on the unemployed and on employment and its conditions are necessary not only in difficult times but also in times of stable economy. University of Zurich.

Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy

This paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available, output data available in real time get revised and are likely to conflict with final figures that are only released some years later. Nevertheless, fiscal policy needs to be inevitably based on real-time figures. The paper develops a simple modeling framework to formalize these linkages and combines it with a newly compiled dataset from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, comprising final and real-time output data for 175 countries, over a period of 17 years. We simulate the effects of output revisions on revisions of the overall balance, the structural balance and debt accumulation. It finds that output revisions may have substantial effects on the ability of governments to correctly estimate the overall balance and the structural fiscal balance in real time, and that the effects may imply substantial debt accumulation.

International Anti-Money Laundering Programs- Empirical Assessment and Issues in Criminal Regulation

The purpose of this paper is to present an empirical assessment and outline issues in criminal regulation relating to international anti-money laundering (AML) programs. Design/methodology/approach – In the first part, this paper outlines the serious threats posed by transnational laundering operations in the context of economic globalization, and calls for highly co-ordinated international responses to such a crime. The second part of the paper centres on elements of international criminal regulation of ML.The focus is on the phenomenological aspect of ML and highlights that to a large extent it is an economic issue. Economic analysis calls for an accurate legal response, with typical trade-offs: it should deter criminals from laundering by increasing the costs for such illicit operations, calling for enhanced regulatory and enforcement activities; however, stronger enforcement yields increased costs and reduces privacy. These features have lately inspired the recent paradigm shift from a rule-based regulatory framework to a risk-based approach which still represents an extremely delicate regulatory. Both at the international level and within the single domestic legal system, AML law is typically characterised by a multidisciplinary approach combining the repressive profile with preventive mechanisms: an empirical evaluation of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank AML program is presented, where these two aspects are assessed. The non-criminal measures recently implemented under the auspices of the main inter-governmental public organisations with competence in these fields seem to be consistent with the insights of economic analysis. However, some key criminal issues need to be better addressed.

Policy Coherence or Conformance? The New World Bank—International Monetary Fund—World Trade Organization Rhetoric on Trade and Investment in Developing Countries

This article traces the concept of “policy coherence” in new debates over development policy space, explores the codification of coherence through International Monetary Fund World Bank World Trade Organization cooperation and recent bi- and multilateral trade agreements, and critiques the abuse of this concept. Today, coherence is code for “policy conformance.” The task is not to remove coherence from the lexicon of development policy but instead to rescue it in pursuit of expanded space for heterogeneous, autonomous paths to development.

WORKERS, PEASANTS, AND PEDDLERS: A STUDY OF LABOR STRATIFICATION IN THE POST-REVOLUTIONARY IRAN

In the post-revolutionary decades, the Iranian economy has undergone significant transitions. This paper is a study of the changes in the pattern of occupational and labor stratification in the Iranian economy in these years. This is a sufficiently long time, permitting the identification of decisive structural shifts in the Iranian economy and its labor force. For the purpose of this study, we propose two periods in the post-revolutionary years. The first period comprises the years of fervent search for a populist Islamic utopia, which began with the 1979 revolution and came to an end by 1986, when the burden of the war with Iraq and the glut in the world oil market made the populist project practically defunct. The death of Ayatollah Khomeini in June 1989 marked the beginning of the second period, one that is characterized by a move toward “economic restructuring” à la the International Monetary Fund–World Bank, aiming for a general liberalization of economic activities, including foreign-exchange realignment, decontrolling of prices, reduction of subsidies, and privatization of nationalized enterprises.

Electricity sector reform in Cameroon: is privatization the solution?

The economic difficulties of Cameroon and of its Government-owned companies led the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to set up a vast privatization program, with the Government's collaboration. In the electricity sector, the state had a complete control over the industry through the SOciété National d’ELectricité (Sonel), an integrated monopoly utility. Under the IMF–World Bank program, Sonel has been sold to foreign interests. This article presents Cameroon's electricity sector, the proposed reform and the importance of electricity in economic development. An evaluation of the reform is presented from two different perspectives. First, we consider the reform from a theoretical and market design point of view. Second, we challenge the reform from a more fundamental level, by questioning the relevance of privatization at this stage of the electricity sector development. This brings us to review the strategic place of electricity in economic growth, how different countries have dealt with their electricity industry in early development stage and how the objective of multinational corporations could be in conflict with specific electricity sector goals. From these two different perspectives, we conclude that the IMF and the World Bank have set up a reform process that is against good public policy. We conclude with some suggestions for improving the reform process.

International Monetary Fund-World Bank: Communiques from the 40th Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors

International Monetary Fund-World Bank: Communiques from the 40th Annual Meetings of the Board of Governors

International Monetary Fund-World Bank: Documents from September 1984 and April 1985 Meetings

International Monetary Fund-World Bank: Documents from September 1984 and April 1985 Meetings