International Model For Policy Analysis Of Agricultural Commodities And Trade Research Articles

Unfulfilled Promise: Pollinator Declines, Crop Deficits, and Diet-Associated Disease.

Unfulfilled Promise: Pollinator Declines, Crop Deficits, and Diet-Associated Disease.

Climate Change Effects on Agriculture and Food Security in Tajikistan

Climate change is one of the main challenges for Tajikistan’s agricultural development and food security both in the medium and longer term. It is considered one of the key obstacles to achieving the country’s strategic objectives as defined in the National Development Strategy for 2016–2030, which includes ensuring food security and access to quality nutrition by 2030. Using IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), this article examines the effects of climate change on agriculture and food security in Tajikistan. The model simulation results show that yields of some major crops will decline significantly and project an overall negative effect of climate change on the agriculture sector in the country. Climate change will be one of the main challenges for food security, leading to an increased number of people at risk of hunger, malnourishment, especially among children and other vulnerable groups, and insufficient per capita calorie intake. Lower food availability may lead to higher food prices, which would negatively affect the livelihood of the population.

Debating Global Food Security Through Models The Agrimonde Foresight Study (2008–2010) and Criticism of Economic Models and of Their ‘Productionist’ Translations

This contribution to the sociology of food security as a globalised public issue highlights the importance of instruments of proof that underlie discourses on related matters. This article addresses the issue of the economic models that are used in the definition of the futures of food security. Through these models, the food security issue is centred on neo-liberal options which systematically and closely connect agricultural productivity and international agricultural trade. Over the last ten years, we have been witnessing the development of new kinds of foresight which construct alternative scenarios. Agrimonde (2008-2010) is one of them. This article highlights how this foresight attempts to open up the debate in instituted networks dedicated to food security in which economic models – and the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model developed by IFPRI1in particular – exert a strong influence. Furthermore, it examines the way in which Agrimonde’s construction principles and its underlying axiology engage in a critique of economic models. The Agrimonde approach also includes the mobilisation of the strategic resources required to perform the international debate and to raise the visibility of alternative conceptions of food security.

Reduction of cardiovascular disease inequalities in the USA through dietary policy

BackgroundThe burden of cardiovascular disease mortality remains large and unequal in the USA, and is mostly attributable to poor diet. Few data exist about the potential population level impact on inequalities of policies to improve diet such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). We aimed to estimate reductions in cardiovascular disease mortality and inequalities achievable in the US population up to 2030 through dietary policies. MethodsWe developed a US IMPACT (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade) food policy model to estimate the number of deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) achievable with four feasible scenarios that have been successfully implemented across the world: a national fruit and vegetables and sugar-sweetened beverage mass media campaign, fruit and vegetable price reductions of 10% universally and 30% to SNAP participants, and universal sugar-sweetened beverage price increase of 10%. We further modelled a combination of these policies. We stratified the US population by SNAP eligibility and participation. We estimated number of deaths using the incremental effect of each policy upon the target food groups. Then we estimated the effect upon cardiovascular disease mortality compared with existing baseline of continued trends. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. FindingsA universal 10% price reduction of fruit and vegetables could prevent the most deaths—about 150 500 DPPs by 2030 (95% CI 137 800–160 500). This compares with approximately 23 000 DPPs (21 500–24 600) generated through a 1 year mass media campaign, or 21 400 DPPs (18 200–24 500) by a 10% price increase in sugar-sweetened beverages. A 30% price reduction in fruit and vegetables for SNAP participants could result in roughly 35 100 DPPs (31 800–37 700) and also achieve the biggest reduction in inequalities between SNAP participants and the ineligible population. The combined policy approach would save most lives (about 204 800 DPPs) while also reducing inequalities. InterpretationFiscal strategies targeting diet could contribute to reduce the unequal cardiovascular mortality burden in the USA. All four dietary policies would be effective, but a combination of the universal and targeted aspects of policies would be the most effective. Individually, a universal 10% reduction in the price of fruit and vegetables might save most lives, whereas a targeted, 30% price reduction for SNAP participants could reduce inequalities the most. FundingNational Institutes of Health (grant number R01HL115189). The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the abstract.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model Description for Version 3

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes the latest version of the model. IMPACT version 3 expands the geographic and commodity scope of the model in response to desires expressed by researchers and policymakers to address more complex questions involving climate change, food security, and economic development into the future. IMPACT 3 is an integrated modeling system that links information from climate models (Earth System Models), crop simulation models (for example, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), and water models linked to a core global, partial equilibrium, multimarket model focused on the agriculture sector. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis through the integration of these multidisciplinary modules to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on their stringency. The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy. Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food.

The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

Application of Multi-Commodity Partial Equilibrium Model to Quantify the Welfare Benefits of Research

Most of the research evaluation and priority setting studies in the past are not likely to incorporate the cross-commodity effects in the estimation of welfare benefits since the cross-price elasticities are often unavailable and cross-commodity spillovers of technologies may be difficult to estimate. This paper also illustrates how the multi-commodity framework is suitable in addressing longer term trends in quantifying future welfare gains and their implications for resource allocation for dryland crops namely sorghum and groundnuts. To address these gaps, this paper will highlight the application of multi-commodity partial equilibrium model called International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to estimate the welfare benefits of sorghum and groundnuts research. The modelling framework also integrates crop modelling suite, hydrology model, climate models and welfare analysis. This model will endogenously estimate the changes in the production, consumption and prices due to adoption of new productivity enhancing technologies and also estimate the changes in the other commodities demand, supply and prices through cross price elasticities effects.

Unlearning Food Predictability

1. Disciplinary approaches to food studiesSocial studies investigating food and eating issues date back a long time and have a specific tradition within the anthropological literature. To mention only two examples: Garrick Mallery's paper, Maimers and meals (1888), appeared in Volume 1, No. 3, of the American Anthropologist; William Robertson Smith's Lectures on the Religion of the Semites (1889) contains an important chapter on food. According to Mintz and Du Bois (2002) the study of food and eating has been important in order to improve scientific understanding of significant broad societal processes such as political-economic value-creation, symbolic value-creation, and the social construction of memory.While the anthropological literature provides valuable accounts of the human diversity when it comes to food, socio-economic studies are highlighting the selective enhancement of the efficiency and predictability dimensions of modern approaches to industrial food, its commodification and distribution: Fast-food restaurant rank very high in the dimension of predictability. In order to help ensure consistency, the fast-food restaurant offers only a limited menu. Predictable end products are made possible by the use of similar raw materials, technologies, and preparation and serving techniques. Not only the food is predictable; the physical structures, the logo, the 'ambience', and even the personnel are as (Ritzer, 2008).Food production and consumption has been affected and it has affected the globalization of the economic relations (Gallino, 2009) that took place in the past five decades, raising issues of economic, social and environmental justice: Who grows food-and how much; who eats it-and at what cost-are questions that will determine social and political relationships not only inside the boundaries of individual nations but also between countries at the international level (George, 1979: 4). Consumer choices concerning eating and food might have a tremendous impact upon local, national and international policies. Worldwide, food demand is shifting from basic commodities (i.e. cereals and rice) to products with a higher value added, (i.e. meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, fats and oils). The increase in the demand for dairy and meat is leading to a surge in the demand for and prices of cereals, as well as in the demand for land. Meat production is particularly demanding in terms of energy, cereal and water. Today, nearly half of the world's cereals are being used for animal feed. Results from the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)1 illustrate the potential beneficial worldwide effect of diets in high-income countries that would shiftaway from meat- and cerealfeed- intensive goods - thereby relieving pressures on targeted markets - but shifting toward other goods as substitutes, which introduces price pressure elsewhere. On the whole, the benefits of releasing grains from livestock production systems by reducing the demand for meat would have a much greater effect on decreasing malnutrition than increasing the consumption of healthy foods like nutrientladen pulses, fruits, and vegetables might have.Sociological studies have often included issues of food and eating within broader social frameworks although more recently scholars and international reviews have come to devote a specific focus to food and social issues. Recent examples include McMillan and Coveney (2010), and the 2010 Special Issue of the Journal of Sociology on the Sociology of Food and Eating introduced and edited by Ward, Coveney, and Henderson (2010).Ward, Coveney, and Henderson (2010) identify globalization as a factor in rising food costs and food insecurity. Growing demand fuelled by rising populations (Stoeckel, 2008) and increased consumer expectations and consumer demands (ODI, 2008); alongside diminishing food supplies attributed to poor harvests in export countries (ODI, 2008), increasing farming production costs (Stoeckel, 2008) and the use of crops to produce biofuels (Dornboech and Steenblik, 2007) have all contributed to rising food costs. …

Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Use in the Limpopo River Basin

This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on water availability and use in the Limpopo River Basin of Southern Africa, using a linked modeling system consisting of a semi-distributed global hydrological model and the Water Simulation Module (WSM) of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Although the WSM simulates all major water use sectors, the focus of this study is to evaluate the implications of climate change on irrigation water supply in the catchments of the Limpopo River Basin within the four riparian countries: Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. The analysis found that water resources of the Limpopo River Basin are already stressed under today’s climate conditions. Projected water infrastructure and management interventions are expected to improve the situation by 2050 if current climate conditions continue into the future. However, under the climate change scenarios studied here, water supply availability is expected to worsen considerably by 2050. Assessing hydrological impacts of climate change is crucial given that expansion of irrigated areas has been postulated as a key adaptation strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa. Such expansion will need to take into account future changes in water availability in African river basins.

The future role of agriculture in the Arab region’s food security

The 2007–2008 food crisis and subsequent economic recession have severely undermined food security and agricultural sustainability worldwide. Failures in market functioning and trade openness have posed particularly high risks to the import-dependent countries in the Arab region. Many of the global causes of the price spikes are still in place, creating uncertainty about food availability and access in the future. Especially in the Arab region, these uncertainties are compounded by water scarcity. A long-term outlook is essential for formulating appropriate policy and investment strategies in order to ensure future food security for the region. After a brief discussion of trends in agricultural growth and investment, this paper presents projections by the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) on agriculture production, trade, demand, prices, and food security up to 2025 and 2050. Simulations are used to compare a baseline scenario (with climate change) with two scenarios incorporating increased investment and supportive policies. The results highlight the key role of agricultural research, as well as expanded irrigation, improved natural resource management, and enhanced market efficiency, in improving food security. Four priority areas are proposed: investments in agricultural research and development, rural infrastructure, and rural institutions; more open regional and international trade to facilitate commodity flows and alleviate supply shortages; pro-poor food and nutrition interventions; and cross-cutting issues of policy coherence, gender dimensions, inclusion of traditional populations, and coordination mechanisms to deal with climate change and ecosystem challenges.

Green and blue water accounting in the Ganges and Nile basins: Implications for food and agricultural policy

Most food globally is produced from soil moisture that comes exclusively from precipitation, or “green” water. Moreover, most of the water reaching plants in irrigated systems also stems from precipitation. Despite this, irrigation or “blue” water has typically been the focus for policy analysis in the past, given the possibility for human manipulation of these resources. This paper analyzes alternative water futures using a combined green and blue water accounting framework embedded within the water simulation components of IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Recently developed future scenarios for the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) and other work are assessed with this adjusted green/blue water accounting framework. Accounting explicitly for green water resources broadens the scope of options for decision-makers trying to improve agricultural production in the face of rising food and energy prices and a degrading water and land resource base in the face of increasing demands. Results highlight the importance of green/blue water accounting presenting a wider range of agricultural science and technology policy options for increasing global crop productivity across a span of potential futures.

New risks and opportunities for food security : scenario analyses for 2015 and 2050

the number of undernourished people in the developing world and the increasingly complex risks to food security, policymakers are faced with an enormous agenda. Freeing people from hunger will require more and better-targeted investments, innovations, and policy actions, driven by a keen understanding of the dynamic risks and forces that shape the factors affecting people's access to food and the links with nutrition. The International Food Policy Research Institute's (IFPRI's) International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) provides insight into the management of these risks through appropriate policy actions. By projecting future global food scenarios to 2050, IMPACT explores the potential implications of policy action and inaction in several main risk areas as well as the effects on child malnutrition in the developing world, commodity prices, demand, cereal yields, production, and net trade. In the progressive policy actions scenario, which assumes increased investment in rural development, health, education, and agricultural research and development, developing country governments and the international community are able to dramatically reduce the number of food-insecure people, leading to a worldwide decline in hunger. Under these conditions, Latin America and China are able to virtually eliminate child malnutrition by 2050. Bolstered by the development and dissemination of improved technologies and better infrastructure, crop production and yields increase in developing countries. Notably, the bulk of the growth in production is driven by yield increases rather than by expanding land area. Spurred by growth in the agricultural sector, average incomes in developing countries increase. Rising incomes bolster demand for high-value agricultural products, such as meat, dairy, and fruits and vegetables; global livestock production more than doubles, for example. Average per capita calorie supplies for developing countries exceed 3,400 per day, well in excess of minimum requirements. The policy failure scenario assumes greater political discord and more extensive agricultural protectionism, together with the failure of policies to deal with food emergencies related to conflict. Slow growth and trade restrictions lead to stagnation in average per capita calorie availability, which remains only slightly above minimum requirements until after 2030, when availability increases. In addition, crucial investments in agriculture, rural development, and poverty reduction are forgone or displaced. Because of limited investment in agricultural research and technology, this scenario has a high level of crop area expansion as a result of relatively rapid population growth and slim yield improvements in developing countries. This scenario also results in flat maize prices, declining per capita cereal demand, falling beef prices, and relatively flat meat demand. As a result of the policies in this scenario, the number of malnourished children in developing countries rises between 1997 and 2015, after which there are only modest declines. In the technology and natural resource management failure scenario, yield growth falls even more than under the preceding scenario, forcing farmers to move into marginal producing areas, which causes a more rapid expansion of cereal area into less productive land that does not compensate for the yield shortfalls (and causes environmental degradation). As a result, cereal prices rise substantially through 2030 and then fall off only gradually. Beef and other meat prices, which are affected by the price of feed, follow a similar pattern. Developing-country per capita calorie availability is essentially unchanged over 1997–2050 and remains at a barely adequate average level. Given unequal access to the food that is available, millions of people actually consume less than the minimum. The occurrence of child undernourishment is even higher than under the policy failure scenario in all developing-country regions. Overall, the technology and natural resource management failure scenario results in the worst impact on food security and child malnourishment in the developing world. The progressive policy scenario outlines several of the most crucial positive steps. National governments and the international community must assume a new focus on agricultural growth and rural development, along with increasing their investments in education, social services, and health. Policies to encourage synergistic growth in the nonfarm sectors are also needed to spur broad-based economic growth. Underpinning these strategies and research agendas must be a firm commitment to reducing hunger and improving the welfare of the world's undernourished people. From Authors' Executive Summary