Abstract
This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on water availability and use in the Limpopo River Basin of Southern Africa, using a linked modeling system consisting of a semi-distributed global hydrological model and the Water Simulation Module (WSM) of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT). Although the WSM simulates all major water use sectors, the focus of this study is to evaluate the implications of climate change on irrigation water supply in the catchments of the Limpopo River Basin within the four riparian countries: Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. The analysis found that water resources of the Limpopo River Basin are already stressed under today’s climate conditions. Projected water infrastructure and management interventions are expected to improve the situation by 2050 if current climate conditions continue into the future. However, under the climate change scenarios studied here, water supply availability is expected to worsen considerably by 2050. Assessing hydrological impacts of climate change is crucial given that expansion of irrigated areas has been postulated as a key adaptation strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa. Such expansion will need to take into account future changes in water availability in African river basins.
Highlights
Increasing evidence suggests that anthropogenic climate change is already underway [1]
The Water Simulation Module (WSM) simulates all major water use sectors, the focus of this study is to evaluate the implications of climate change on irrigation water supply in the Limpopo catchments in the four riparian countries: Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe
The two climate change scenarios represent 2050 climate, for convenience, we still call their simulation period 1970–2000 as they were built based on climate series of this historical period
Summary
Increasing evidence suggests that anthropogenic climate change is already underway [1]. Semi-arid and arid areas are exposed to the adverse impacts of climate change on freshwater [6]. Many such areas have developed extensive irrigation systems, such as the western. There are other semi-arid and arid areas with relatively low level of irrigation development for socioeconomic reasons or lack of reliable water resources Farming in these areas is no doubt difficult and risky, and the dry and volatile climate is often a cause of underdevelopment and persistent poverty [7]. The. Limpopo River Basin (LRB) in Southern Africa is such an area and this paper analyzes climate change impacts on water availability and use in the basin. We try to fill this gap by evaluating climate change impacts on water availability and use in the basin, using multiple climate change scenarios and taking into account plausible socioeconomic developments
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