International H2O Project Research Articles

Observations of Vertical Wind Shear Heterogeneity in Convective Boundary Layers

AbstractDual-Doppler wind syntheses from mobile radar observations obtained during the International H2O Project document some of the spatial variability of vertical wind profiles in convective boundary layers. Much of the variability of popular forecasting parameters such as vertical wind shear magnitude and storm-relative helicity is thought to result from pressure and temperature gradients associated with mesoscale boundaries (e.g., drylines, outflow boundaries, fronts). These analyses also reveal substantial heterogeneity even in the absence of obvious mesoscale wind shifts—in regions many might have classified as “horizontally homogeneous” with respect to these parameters in the past. This heterogeneity is closely linked to kinematic perturbations associated with boundary layer convection. When a mean wind is present, the large spatial variability implies significant temporal variability in the vertical wind profiles observed at fixed locations, with the temporal variability increasing with mean wind speed. Significant differences also can arise between true hodographs and “pseudohodographs” obtained from rawinsondes that are advected horizontally as they ascend. Some possible implications of the observed heterogeneity with respect to forecasting and simulating convective storms also are discussed.

Influence of Land Cover and Soil Moisture on the Horizontal Distribution of Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes in Southeast Kansas during IHOP_2002 and CASES-97

Abstract Analyses of daytime fair-weather aircraft and surface-flux tower data from the May–June 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) and the April–May 1997 Cooperative Atmosphere Surface Exchange Study (CASES-97) are used to document the role of vegetation, soil moisture, and terrain in determining the horizontal variability of latent heat LE and sensible heat H along a 46-km flight track in southeast Kansas. Combining the two field experiments clearly reveals the strong influence of vegetation cover, with H maxima over sparse/dormant vegetation, and H minima over green vegetation; and, to a lesser extent, LE maxima over green vegetation, and LE minima over sparse/dormant vegetation. If the small number of cases is producing the correct trend, other effects of vegetation and the impact of soil moisture emerge through examining the slope ΔxyLE/ΔxyH for the best-fit straight line for plots of time-averaged LE as a function of time-averaged H over the area. Based on the surface energy balance, H + LE = Rnet − Gsfc, where Rnet is the net radiation and Gsfc is the flux into the soil; Rnet − Gsfc ∼ constant over the area implies an approximately −1 slope. Right after rainfall, H and LE vary too little horizontally to define a slope. After sufficient drying to produce enough horizontal variation to define a slope, a steep (∼−2) slope emerges. The slope becomes shallower and better defined with time as H and LE horizontal variability increases. Similarly, the slope becomes more negative with moister soils. In addition, the slope can change with time of day due to phase differences in H and LE. These trends are based on land surface model (LSM) runs and observations collected under nearly clear skies; the vegetation is unstressed for the days examined. LSM runs suggest terrain may also play a role, but observational support is weak.

Unusually Long Duration, Multiple-Doppler Radar Observations of a Front in a Convective Boundary Layer

Abstract Dual-Doppler observations acquired by a network of mobile radars deployed in the Oklahoma panhandle on 3 June 2002 are used to document the kinematic structure and evolution of a front. The data were collected during the International H2O Project on a mission to study the initiation of deep convection. Synchronized scanning allowed for the synthesis of three-dimensional wind fields for nearly 5.5 h of the 1557–0000 UTC period. The front initially moved southward as a cold front, stalled, and later retreated northward as a warm front. Deep convection failed to be initiated along the front. In situ thermodynamic measurements obtained by a mobile mesonet were used to document changes in the density gradient at the surface. This paper examines the relationships among the changes in baroclinity, the thermally direct frontal circulation, updraft intensity, alongfront updraft variability, and the intensity of vortices along the front. Increases in the front-normal density gradient tended to be associated with increases in the thermally direct frontal circulation, as expected. Increases in the front-normal density gradient were also associated with an increase in the tilt of the frontal updraft as well as an increase in the contiguity of the updraft along the front, termed the “slabularity.” During periods when the front-normal density gradient and associated thermally direct frontal circulation were weak, the kinematic fields were dominated by boundary layer convection and the slabularity of the front was reduced. Intensification of the front-normal density gradient was accompanied by an increase in the horizontal wind shear and the intensity of vortices that were observed along the front. The vortices modulated the vertical velocity field along the front and therefore the slabularity, too. Thus, although the slabularity was a strong function of the strength of the thermally direct frontal circulation, the slabularity appeared to be modified by vortices in complex ways. Possible implications of the observations for convection initiation are also discussed, particularly with respect to updraft tilt and slabularity.

Intercomparison of Water Vapor Data Measured with Lidar during IHOP_2002. Part I: Airborne to Ground-Based Lidar Systems and Comparisons with Chilled-Mirror Hygrometer Radiosondes

AbstractThe water vapor data measured with airborne and ground-based lidar systems during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002), which took place in the Southern Great Plains during 13 May–25 June 2002 were investigated. So far, the data collected during IHOP_2002 provide the largest set of state-of-the-art water vapor lidar data measured in a field campaign. In this first of two companion papers, intercomparisons between the scanning Raman lidar (SRL) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and two airborne systems are discussed. There are 9 intercomparisons possible between SRL and the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) of Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), while there are 10 intercomparisons between SRL and the Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) of the NASA Langley Research Center. Mean biases of (−0.30 ± 0.25) g kg−1 or −4.3% ± 3.2% for SRL compared to DLR DIAL (DLR DIAL drier) and (0.16 ± 0.31) g kg−1 or 5.3% ± 5.1% for SRL compared to LASE (LASE wetter) in the height range of 1.3–3.8 km above sea level (450–2950 m above ground level at the SRL site) were found. Putting equal weight on the data reliability of the three instruments, these results yield relative bias values of −4.6%, −0.4%, and +5.0% for DLR DIAL, SRL, and LASE, respectively. Furthermore, measurements of the Snow White (SW) chilled-mirror hygrometer radiosonde were compared with lidar data. For the four comparisons possible between SW radiosondes and SRL, an overall bias of (−0.27 ± 0.30) g kg−1 or −3.2% ± 4.5% of SW compared to SRL (SW drier) again for 1.3–3.8 km above sea level was found. Because it is a challenging effort to reach an accuracy of humidity measurements down to the ∼5% level, the overall results are very satisfactory and confirm the high and stable performance of the instruments and the low noise errors of each profile.

Intercomparison of Water Vapor Data Measured with Lidar during IHOP_2002. Part II: Airborne-to-Airborne Systems

AbstractThe dataset of the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) gives the first opportunity for direct intercomparisons of airborne water vapor lidar systems and allows very important conclusions to be drawn for future field campaigns. Three airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) systems were operated simultaneously during some IHOP_2002 missions: the DIAL of Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), the Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center, and the Lidar Embarque pour l’etude des Aerosols et des Nuages de l’interaction Dynamique Rayonnement et du cycle de l’Eau (LEANDRE II) of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS). Data of one formation flight with DLR DIAL and LEANDRE II were investigated, which consists of 54 independent profiles of the two instruments measured with 10-s temporal average. For the height range of 1.14–1.64 km above sea level, a bias of (−0.41 ± 0.16) g kg−1 or −7.9% ± 3.1% was found for DLR DIAL compared to LEANDRE II (LEANDRE II drier) as well as root-mean-square (RMS) deviations of (0.87 ± 0.18) g kg−1 or 16.9% ± 3.5%. With these results, relative bias values of −9.3%, −1.5%, +2.7%, and +8.1% result for LEANDRE II, DLR DIAL, the scanning Raman lidar (SRL), and LASE, respectively, using the mutual bias values determined in Part I for the latter three sensors. From the three possible profile-to-profile intercomparisons between DLR DIAL and LASE, one case cannot provide information on the system performances due to very large inhomogeneity of the atmospheric water vapor field, while one of the two remaining two cases showed a difference of −4.6% in the height range of 1.4–3.0 km and the other of −25% in 1.3–3.8 km (in both cases DLR DIAL was drier than LASE). The airborne-to-airborne comparisons showed that if airborne water vapor lidars are to be validated down to an accuracy of better than 5% in the lower troposphere, the atmospheric variability of water vapor has to be taken into account down to scales of less than a kilometer unless a sufficiently large number of intercomparison cases is available to derive statistically solid biases and RMS deviations. In conclusion, the overall biases between the water vapor data of all three airborne lidar systems operated during IHOP_2002 are smaller than 10% in the present stage of data evaluation, which confirms the previous estimates of the instrumental accuracies for all the systems.

NCAR/CU Surface, Soil, and Vegetation Observations during the International H2O Project 2002 Field Campaign

The May–June 2002 International H2O Project was held in the U.S. Southern Great Plains to determine ways that moisture data could be collected and utilized in numerical forecast models most effectively. We describe the surface and boundary layer components, and indicate how the data can be acquired. These data document the eddy transport of heat and water vapor from the surface to the atmosphere (in terms of sensible heat flux H and latent heat flux LE), as well as radiative, atmospheric, soil, and vegetative factors that affect it, so that the moisture and heat supply to the atmosphere can be related to surface properties both for observational studies and tests of land surface models. The surface dataset was collected at 10 surface flux towers at locations representing the major types of land cover and extending from southeast Kansas to the Oklahoma Panhandle. At each location, the components of the surface energy budget (H, LE, net radiation, and soil heat flux) are documented each half-hour, along with the weather (wind, temperature, mixing ratio, air pressure, and precipitation), soil temperature, moisture, and matric potential down to 70–90 cm beneath the surface at 9 of the 10 sites. Observations of soil and vegetation properties and their horizontal changes were taken near all 10 towers during periodic visits. Aircraft measurements of H and LE from repeated low-level flight tracks along three tracks collocated with the surface sites extend the flux tower measurements horizontally. We illustrate the effects of vegetation and soil moisture on the H and LE and their horizontal variability.

Observational Analysis of a Gust Front to Bore to Solitary Wave Transition within an Evolving Nocturnal Boundary Layer

Abstract The evolution of a gust front to bore to solitary wave transition, and comprehensive information on the evolving nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) associated with this change, are described with analysis of radar and profiler measurements. The observations were obtained on 21 June 2002 in the Oklahoma panhandle during the International H2O Project. The evolution of this system, from a strong bore (initiated by a vigorous gust front) to a solitary wave, was observed over a 4-h period with Doppler radar and surface measurements. Detailed information on the mature bore structure was obtained by a cluster of profiling instruments including two boundary layer wind profilers, a lidar ceilometer, and a microwave profiling radiometer. A strong bore was initiated by an extensive gust front that perturbed an incipient NBL whose development (prior to sunset) was enhanced by shading from the parent mesoscale convective system. At the time of bore formation, the NBL was about 300 m deep and exhibited a surface temperature about 4 K less than the afternoon maximum. Initially, the bore assumed kinematic properties similar to those of a gust front. As the NBL stabilized, the bore matured and exhibited undular formations over 30–60-km segments along the bore axis. A 30-km-wide cloud field accompanied the mature bore system within three hours of its formation. System-relative airflow within the cloud field was front-to-rear and exhibited a primary hydraulic jump updraft (4–5 m s−1 magnitude) within the bore core. The bore core exhibited a low, smooth cloud base, a cloud depth of 2.5 km, nearly adiabatic liquid water content, and pronounced turbulence. The maximum parcel displacements within the bore were about 2 km (sufficient for marginal convective initiation), and the net parcel displacement from before to after bore passage was 0.6–0.9 km.

The Use of a Modified Ebert–McBride Technique to Evaluate Mesoscale Model QPF as a Function of Convective System Morphology during IHOP 2002

Abstract The Ebert–McBride technique (EMT) is an entity-oriented method useful for quantitative precipitation verification. The EMT was modified to optimize its ability to identify contiguous rain areas (CRAs) during the 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP). This technique was then used to identify systematic sources of error as a function of observed convective system morphology in three 12-km model simulations run over the IHOP domain: Eta, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The EMT was fine-tuned to optimize the pattern matching of forecasts to observations for the scales of precipitation systems observed during IHOP. To investigate several error measures provided by the EMT, a detailed morphological analysis of observed systems was performed using radar data for all CRAs identified in the IHOP domain. The modified EMT suggests that the Eta Model produced average rain rates, peak rainfall amounts, and total rain volumes that were lower than observed for almost all types of convective systems, likely because of its production of overly smoothed and low-variability quantitative precipitation forecasts. The MM5 and WRF typically produced average rain rates and peak rainfall amounts that were larger than observed in most linear convective systems. However, the rain volume for these models was too low for almost all types of convective systems, implying a sizeable underestimate in areal coverage. All three models forecast rainfall too far northwest for linear systems. The results for the WRF and MM5 are consistent with previous observations of mesoscale models run with explicit microphysics and no convective parameterization scheme, suggesting systematic problems with the prediction of mesoscale convective system cold pool dynamics.

Vertical Velocity and Buoyancy Characteristics of Coherent Echo Plumes in the Convective Boundary Layer, Detected by a Profiling Airborne Radar

Abstract Aircraft and airborne millimeter-wave radar observations are used to interpret the dynamics of radar echoes and radar-inferred updrafts within the well-developed, weakly sheared continental convective boundary layer. Vertically pointing radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity data collected above and below the aircraft, flying along fixed tracks in the central Great Plains during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002), are used to define echo plumes and updraft plumes, respectively. Updraft plumes are generally narrower than echo plumes, but both types of plumes have the dynamical properties of buoyant eddies, especially at low levels. This buoyancy is driven both by temperature excess and water vapor excess over the ambient air. Plumes that are better defined in terms of reflectivity or updraft strength tend to be more buoyant.

Numerical Forecasts of the 15–16 June 2002 Southern Plains Mesoscale Convective System: Impact of Mesoscale Data and Cloud Analysis

Abstract High-resolution explicit forecasts using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) of the 15–16 June 2002 mesoscale convective system (MCS) that occurred over the U.S. central and southern plains during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) field experiment period are performed. The forecasts are designed to investigate the impact of mesoscale and convective-scale data on the initialization and prediction of an organized convective system. Specifically, the forecasts test the impact of special mesoscale surface and upper-air data collected by, but not necessarily specific to, IHOP_2002 and of level-II data from multiple Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler radars. The effectiveness of using 30-min assimilation cycles with the use of a complex cloud-analysis procedure and high-temporal-resolution surface data is also examined. The analyses and forecasts employ doubly nested grids, with resolutions of 9 and 3 km. Emphasis is placed on the solutions of the 3-km grid. In all forecasts, a strong, well-defined bow-shaped MCS is produced with structure and behavior similar to those of the observed system. Verification of these forecasts through both regular and phase-shifted equitable threat scores of the instantaneous composite reflectivity fields indicate that the use of the complex cloud analysis has the greatest positive impact on the prediction of the MCS, primarily by removing the otherwise needed “spinup” time of convection in the model. The impact of additional data networks is smaller and is reflected mainly in reducing the spinup time of the MCS too. The use of intermittent assimilation cycles appears to be quite beneficial when the assimilation window covers a time period when the MCS is present. Difficulties with verifying weather systems with high spatial and temporal intermittency are also discussed, and the use of both regular and spatially shifted equitable threat scores is found to be very beneficial in assessing the quality of the forecasts.

Retrieval of Moisture from Slant-Path Water Vapor Observations of a Hypothetical GPS Network Using a Three-Dimensional Variational Scheme with Anisotropic Background Error

Abstract A three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) scheme is developed for retrieving three-dimensional moisture in the atmosphere from slant-path measurements of a hypothetical ground-based global positioning system (GPS) observation network. It is assumed that the observed data are in the form of slant-path water vapor (SWV), which is the integrated water vapor along the slant path between the ground receiver and the GPS satellite. The inclusion of a background in the analysis overcomes the under-determinedness problem. An explicit Gaussian-type spatial filter is used to model the background error covariances that can be anisotropic. As a unique aspect of this study, an anisotropic spatial filter based on flow-dependent background error structures is implemented and tested and the filter coefficients are derived from either true background error field or from the increment of an intermediate analysis that is obtained using an isotropic filter. In the latter case, an iterative procedure is involved. A set of experiments is conducted to test the new scheme with hypothetical GPS observations for a dryline case that occurred during the 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) field experiment. Results illustrate that this system is robust and can properly recover three-dimensional mesoscale moisture structures from GPS SWV data and surface moisture observations. The analysis captures major features in water vapor associated with the dryline even when an isotropic spatial filter is used. The analysis is further improved significantly by the use of flow-dependent background error covariances modeled by an anisotropic spatial filter. Sensitivity tests show that surface moisture observations are important for the analysis near ground, and more so when flow-dependent background error covariances are not used. Vertical filtering is necessary for obtaining accurate analysis increments. The retrieved moisture field remains reasonably accurate when the surface moisture observations and GPS SWV data contain errors of typical magnitudes. The positive impact of flow-dependent background error covariances increases when the density of ground-based GPS receiver stations decreases.

Raman Lidar Measurements during the International H2O Project. Part I: Instrumentation and Analysis Techniques

Abstract The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) participated in the International H2O Project (IHOP), which occurred in May and June 2002 in the midwestern part of the United States. The SRL received extensive optical modifications prior to and during the IHOP campaign that added new measurement capabilities and enabled unprecedented daytime water vapor measurements by a Raman lidar system. Improvements were also realized in nighttime upper-tropospheric water vapor measurements. The other new measurements that were added to the SRL for the IHOP deployment included rotational Raman temperature, depolarization, cloud liquid water, and cirrus cloud ice water content. In this first of two parts, the details of the operational configuration of the SRL during IHOP are provided along with a description of the analysis and calibration procedures for water vapor mixing ratio, aerosol depolarization, and cirrus cloud extinction-to-backscatter ratio. For the first time, a Raman water vapor lidar calibration is performed, taking full account of the temperature sensitivity of water vapor and nitrogen Raman scattering. Part II presents case studies that permit the daytime and nighttime error statistics to be quantified.

Raman Lidar Measurements during the International H2O Project. Part II: Case Studies

Abstract The NASA GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) participated in the International H2O Project (IHOP) that occurred in May and June 2002 in the midwestern part of the United States. The SRL system configuration and methods of data analysis were described in Part I of this paper. In this second part, comparisons of SRL water vapor measurements and those of Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) airborne water vapor lidar and chilled-mirror radiosonde are performed. Two case studies are then presented: one for daytime and one for nighttime. The daytime case study is of a convectively driven boundary layer event and is used to characterize the daytime SRL water vapor random error characteristics. The nighttime case study is of a thunderstorm-generated cirrus cloud case that is studied in its meteorological context. Upper-tropospheric humidification due to precipitation from the cirrus cloud is quantified as is the cirrus cloud optical depth, extinction-to-backscatter ratio, ice water content, cirrus particle size, and both particle and volume depolarization ratios. A stability and back-trajectory analysis is performed to study the origin of wave activity in one of the cloud layers. These unprecedented cirrus cloud measurements are being used in a cirrus cloud modeling study.

Finescale Radar Observations of the 22 May 2002 Dryline during the International H2O Project (IHOP)

Abstract The dryline has long been associated with the development of severe thunderstorms in the southern plains during the spring and early summer months. The propagation and structure of the dryline are closely tied to surface processes that are neither well understood nor well resolved with current observational capabilities. As a result, there are often large errors in forecasts of dryline position and structure. Improvements in radar technology have allowed for better observations of the dryline in recent years. Here, very finescale radar observations taken with the University of Massachusetts—Amherst (UMass) mobile W-band radar during an International H2O Project (IHOP) double-dryline event on 22 May 2002 in the Oklahoma panhandle are presented. The observations are placed in the context of the dryline secondary circulation, which describes flow in a plane normal to the dryline. The narrow, half-power beamwidth of the antenna on the W band (0.18°) permitted the measurements of channels of upward (8–9 m s−1 over a horizontal distance of 50–100 m) and downward vertical velocity, greater in absolute magnitude than that previously reported in dryline field studies. A ground-based variational pseudo-multiple-Doppler processing technique is introduced, which is used to decompose time series of RHI velocity data into horizontal and vertical wind components. The technique is applied to a retrograding dryline from 22 May 2002. Finescale structure of the retreating dryline interface is presented.

Relationship between a Weakening Cold Front, Misocyclones, and Cloud Development on 10 June 2002 during IHOP

Abstract The finescale structure and evolution of a cold front in the presence of small-scale circulations are examined using overdetermined dual-Doppler syntheses of mobile radar data along with thermodynamic data and cloud imagery collected on 10 June 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP). Linear clear-air reflectivity maxima and open cellular convection intersect the cold front, causing spatial variations in convergence along the front. Small-scale vertical vorticity maxima (misocyclones) often are coincident with these intersections and are associated with vertical velocity maxima. Throughout the deployment, trajectory analyses indicate that parcels entering the frontal circulation travel predominately in the along-front direction. During the first hour of the deployment, upward motion is nearly continuous along the front. Consequently, parcels remain in regions of upward motion as they move along the front, and many eventually ascend to cloud base. In response, a line of cumulus clouds develops along the front. Later in the deployment, however, enhanced warming behind the cold front causes the frontal circulation to weaken. Small-scale features such as misocyclones play a larger role in organizing upward motion along the front than when the front was stronger. Misocyclones contort the weakened cold front and are associated with kinks in radar reflectivity and fractures in upward motion. Parcels moving along the front now experience regions of both upward and downward forcing due to this fracturing. Hence, many of these parcels do not retain upward motion long enough to reach cloud base, and clouds along the cold front dissipate in the dry air above the boundary layer. Parcels that remain coincident with upward motion maxima, such as those maxima associated with misocyclones, however, often still reach the top of the radar domain and presumably cloud base.

Sensitivity Analysis of Convection of the 24 May 2002 IHOP Case Using Very Large Ensembles

Abstract This paper introduces the use of very large ensembles for detailed sensitivity analysis and applies this technique to study the sensitivity of model forecast rainfall to initial boundary layer and soil moisture fields for a particular case from the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) field program. In total, an aggregate ensemble of over 12 000 mesoscale model forecasts are made, with each forecast having different perturbations of boundary layer moisture, boundary layer wind, or soil moisture. Sensitivity fields are constructed from this ensemble, producing detailed sensitivity fields of defined forecast functions to initial perturbations. This work is based on mesoscale model forecasts of convection of the 24 May 2002 IHOP case, which saw convective initiation along a dryline in western Texas as well as precipitation along a cold front. The large ensemble technique proves to be highly sensitive, and both significant and subtle connections between model state variables are revealed. A number of interesting sensitivity results are obtained. It is found that soil moisture and ABL moisture have opposite effects on the amount of precipitation along the dryline; that moisture on both the dry and moist sides of the dryline was equally important; and that some small perturbations were alone responsible for entire convective storm cells near the cold front, a result implying a high level of nonlinearity. These sensitivity analyses strongly indicate the importance of accurate low-level water vapor characterization for quantitative precipitation forecasting.

Four-Dimensional Variational Assimilation of Water Vapor Differential Absorption Lidar Data: The First Case Study within IHOP_2002

AbstractFour-dimensional variational assimilation of water vapor differential absorption lidar (DIAL) data has been applied for investigating their impact on the initial water field for mesoscale weather forecasting. A case that was observed during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) has been selected. During 24 May 2002, data from the NASA Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment were available upstream of a convective system that formed later along the dryline and a cold front. Tools were developed for routinely assimilating water vapor DIAL data into the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). The results demonstrate a large impact on the initial water vapor field. This is due to the high resolution and accuracy of DIAL data making the observation of the high spatial variability of humidity in the region of the dryline and of the cold front possible. The water vapor field is mainly adjusted by a modification of the atmospheric wind field changing the moisture transport. A positive impact of the improved initial fields on the spatial/temporal prediction of convective initiation is visible. The results demonstrate the high value of accurate, vertically resolved mesoscale water vapor observations and advanced data assimilation systems for short-range weather forecasting.

A High-Resolution Modeling Study of the 24 May 2002 Dryline Case during IHOP. Part I: Numerical Simulation and General Evolution of the Dryline and Convection

Abstract Results from a high-resolution numerical simulation of the 24 May 2002 dryline convective initiation (CI) case are presented. The simulation uses a 400 km × 700 km domain with a 1-km horizontal resolution grid nested inside a 3-km domain and starts from an assimilated initial condition at 1800 UTC. Routine as well as special upper-air and surface observations collected during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) are assimilated into the initial condition. The initiation of convective storms at around 2015 UTC along a section of the dryline south of the Texas panhandle is correctly predicted, as is the noninitiation of convection at a cold-front–dryline intersection (triple point) located farther north. The timing and location of predicted CI are accurate to within 20 min and 25 km, respectively. The general evolution of the predicted convective line up to 6 h of model time also verifies well. Mesoscale convergence associated with the confluent flow around the dryline is shown to produce an upward moisture bulge, while surface heating and boundary layer mixing are responsible for the general deepening of the boundary layer. These processes produce favorable conditions for convection but the actual triggering of deep moist convection at specific locations along the dryline depends on localized forcing. Interaction of the primary dryline convergence boundary with horizontal convective rolls on its west side provides such localized forcing, while convective eddies on the immediate east side are suppressed by a downward mesoscale dryline circulation. A companion paper analyzes in detail the exact processes of convective initiation along this dryline.

Correction for Rain Path Specific and Differential Attenuation of X-Band Dual-Polarization Observations

The accuracy of attenuation correction for X-band reflectivity (Z H) and differential reflectivity (ZDR) measurements in rainfall is analyzed using coincident X-band and S-band polarimetric radar observations collected during the International H2O Project in the period of May-June 2002 at northwestern Oklahoma. Two distinct attenuation correction techniques that use the differential propagation phase shift (PhiDP) information, which is not a power-dependent measurement, as a means to provide independent estimates of path-integrated attenuation are assessed. The study is facilitated by nonattenuated X-band ZH and ZDR profiles simulated based on raindrop size distribution parameters retrieved from matched multiparameter (ZH, ZDR, and KDP) S-band observations. The major outcome of this assessment is that PhiDP-based attenuation correction for both techniques can reach almost unbiased measurements (within 5% mean relative error) and low random error (15-20% relative standard deviation). The study shows moderate differences in the error statistics of the evaluated techniques. The sensitivity of attenuation correction uncertainty with respect to the assumed variability in raindrops' oblateness-size relation and the noise in PhiDP measurement is also shown

Effect of Land–Atmosphere Interactions on the IHOP 24–25 May 2002 Convection Case

Abstract Numerical simulations are conducted using the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to investigate the impact of land–vegetation processes on the prediction of mesoscale convection observed on 24–25 May 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002). The control COAMPS configuration uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version of the Noah land surface model (LSM) initialized using a high-resolution land surface data assimilation system (HRLDAS). Physically consistent surface fields are ensured by an 18-month spinup time for HRLDAS, and physically consistent mesoscale fields are ensured by a 2-day data assimilation spinup for COAMPS. Sensitivity simulations are performed to assess the impact of land–vegetative processes by 1) replacing the Noah LSM with a simple slab soil model (SLAB), 2) adding a photosynthesis, canopy resistance/transpiration scheme [the gas exchange/photosynthesis-based evapotranspiration model (GEM)] to the Noah LSM, and 3) replacing the HRLDAS soil moisture with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 40-km Eta Data Assimilation (EDAS) operational soil fields. CONTROL, EDAS, and GEM develop convection along the dryline and frontal boundaries 2–3 h after observed, with synoptic-scale forcing determining the location and timing. SLAB convection along the boundaries is further delayed, indicating that detailed surface parameterization is necessary for a realistic model forecast. EDAS soils are generally drier and warmer than HRLDAS, resulting in more extensive development of convection along the dryline than for CONTROL. The inclusion of photosynthesis-based evapotranspiration (GEM) improves predictive skill for both air temperature and moisture. Biases in soil moisture and temperature (as well as air temperature and moisture during the prefrontal period) are larger for EDAS than HRLDAS, indicating land–vegetative processes in EDAS are forced by anomalously warmer and drier conditions than observed. Of the four simulations, the errors in SLAB predictions of these quantities are generally the largest. By adding a sophisticated transpiration model, the atmospheric model is able to better respond to the more detailed representation of soil moisture and temperature. The sensitivity of the synoptically forced convection to soil and vegetative processes including transpiration indicates that detailed representation of land surface processes should be included in weather forecasting models, particularly for severe storm forecasting where local-scale information is important.