International GHG Research Articles

Mitigation of gaseous emissions from dairy livestock: A farm-level method to examine the financial implications

Feeding the world's population while minimising the contribution of agriculture to climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing modern society. This challenge is particularly pronounced for dairy production where the carbon footprint of products and the mitigation costs are high, relative to other food stuffs. This paper reviews a number of mitigation measures that may be adopted by dairy farmers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from their farms. A simulation model is developed to assess the cost-benefit of a range of mitigation measures. The model is applied to data from Ireland, a country with a large export-oriented dairy industry, for a range of farms including top, middle and bottom performing farms from a profitability perspective. The mitigation measures modelled included animal productivity, grass production and utilisation, better reproductive performance, early compact calving, reduced crude protein, decreased fertiliser N, protected urea, white clover, slurry tank cover and low emission slurry spreading (LESS). The results show that over half of the greenhouse gas abatement potential and most of the ammonia abatement potential were realised with cost-beneficial measures. Animal and feed-related measures that increased efficiency drove the abatement of GHG emissions. Low-emission slurry spreading was beneficial for the bottom and middle one-third of farms, while protected urea and reducing nitrogen use accounted for most of the ammonia abatement potential for the most profitable farms. Results showed that combining mitigation measures resulted in a decrease of 23%, 19%, and 12% in GHG emissions below 2020 levels for the bottom, middle, and top performing dairy farms, respectively. The findings imply that top dairy farms, that are already managed efficiently and optimally, may struggle to achieve the national and international GHG reduction targets with existing technologies and practices.

Environmental review of fossil fuels projects—Principles for applying a “climate test” in the United States

United States federal law requires major new fossil fuel production and infrastructure projects to undergo environmental review, including of associated greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Many state laws have similar requirements. The manner in which GHG emissions have been analyzed in recent years has been contentious, however, with starkly different methods used and conclusions reached. One of the central problems in these analyses has been that agencies have often concluded — incorrectly — that that if a given fossil project is not approved, some other entity would produce, transport, or consume all or nearly all of the fossil fuels that would be produced or transported by the project under review, and GHG emissions would be unchanged. This paper highlights the problems with this kind of analysis and proposes a refined approach that focuses on a project's relatively non-controversial, known emissions, thereby simplifying the underlying calculation. We further suggest a climate “test” that evaluates whether a project is consistent with agreed international, federal, and state GHG emission-reduction goals.

Determining commuting greenhouse gas emissions abatement achieved by information technology enabled remote working

Research indicates reduced commuting [1, 2] in 2020 has significantly lowered greenhouse gas emissions [3]. As transportation generates 14% of global GHG emissions [4, 5], reducing commuter emissions is key to a sustainable future and achieving international GHG abatement targets [6]. The United Nations (UN) indicates combining existing technology innovative and behavioural changes has the potential to transform societies and reduce GHG emissions [7]. Doing so will bridge the current projected emissions gap to slow global warming to 1.5oC by 2050 [8]. This research proposes that IT enabled remote working is capable of delivering innovation and behavioural changes to significantly contribute to this goal. To determine the percentage of GHG emissions abatement achieved by remote working, this research measures 815 employees across a 2-year time horizon, spanning both pre and COVID-19 periods. The results indicate remote working reduced commuting emissions by 43% in 2019 and 97% in 2020, generating a per capita abatement value of 1.9 tCO2e. Examining the commuting data generated by the employees in twenty-four countries using twelve forms of transport, the research quantifies the impact of returning to a ‘new normal’ when commuting recommences. The results indicate that now the question of whether remote working is feasible for a wider audience has been proven by enforced business continuity in 2020, three key factors must be examined to ensure commuter emissions do not revert or exceed 2019 values. These include leveraging the benefits of work life balance delivered by remote working, awareness of the environmental impact of commuting and adoption of zero carbon transportation. In doing so, the statistics indicate that whilst employees will return to the office, future abatement of 60% is achievable in the ‘new normal’.

Modelos de planeamiento energético aplicados en Perú: una revisión y propuesta metodológica

Modelos de planeamiento energético aplicados en Perú: una revisión y propuesta metodológica José Neil Meza Segura1, Jaime Luyo Kuong2 1 Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias con Mención en Energética, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería, Av. Tupac Amaru 210, Rímac, Lima, Perú 2 Facultad de Ingeniería Mecánica, Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería, Av. Tupac Amaru 210, Rímac, Lima, Perú Presentado el 31 de diciembre 2020. Revisado 13 de enero. Aprobado 13 de febrero 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.33017/RevECIPeru2020.0002/ Resumen Un modelo energético sirve de base para realizar estudios de prospectiva. Sin embargo, en el contexto internacional de lucha contra el cambio climático y negociaciones internacionales de reducción de GEI, se plantean nuevos retos y paradigmas que los enfoques metodológicos deben cumplir. En el presente artículo se realiza una evaluación de los modelos energéticos empleados en estudios de planeamiento del sistema energético peruano, clasificándolos y evaluando el cumplimiento de paradigmas que plantean los sistemas energéticos actuales. Finalmente, para cumplir con los nuevos retos y paradigmas, se plantea una propuesta metodológica hibrida que cuenta con cuatro componentes: de uso final, de optimización, de integración del balance energético y de evaluación de escenarios simulados. Descriptores: modelos energéticos, matriz energética, prospectiva energética, balance de energía, gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) Abstract An energy model serves as the basis for prospective studies. However, in the international context of combating climate change and international GHG reduction negotiations, it poses new challenges of paradigms that methodological approaches must meet. In this article an evaluation of the energy models used in planning studies of the Peruvian energy system is carried out, classifying them and evaluating the fulfillment of paradigms posed by current energy systems. Finally, to meet the new challenges and paradigms, a hybrid methodological proposal is proposed that has four components: end use, optimization, integration of the energy balance and evaluation of simulated scenarios. Keywords: energy models, energy matrix, energy prospective, energy balance, greenhouse gases (GHG)

(Utilization of International Carbon Market under the Paris Agreement)

(Utilization of International Carbon Market under the Paris Agreement)

Greenhouse gas emissions from tropical forest degradation: an underestimated source

BackgroundThe degradation of forests in developing countries, particularly those within tropical and subtropical latitudes, is perceived to be an important contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. However, the impacts of forest degradation are understudied and poorly understood, largely because international emission reduction programs have focused on deforestation, which is easier to detect and thus more readily monitored. To better understand and seize opportunities for addressing climate change it will be essential to improve knowledge of greenhouse gas emissions from forest degradation.ResultsHere we provide a consistent estimation of forest degradation emissions between 2005 and 2010 across 74 developing countries covering 2.2 billion hectares of forests. We estimated annual emissions of 2.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide, of which 53% were derived from timber harvest, 30% from woodfuel harvest and 17% from forest fire. These percentages differed by region: timber harvest was as high as 69% in South and Central America and just 31% in Africa; woodfuel harvest was 35% in Asia, and just 10% in South and Central America; and fire ranged from 33% in Africa to only 5% in Asia. Of the total emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, forest degradation accounted for 25%. In 28 of the 74 countries, emissions from forest degradation exceeded those from deforestation.ConclusionsThe results of this study clearly demonstrate the importance of accounting greenhouse gases from forest degradation by human activities. The scale of emissions presented indicates that the exclusion of forest degradation from national and international GHG accounting is distorting. This work helps identify where emissions are likely significant, but policy developments are needed to guide when and how accounting should be undertaken. Furthermore, ongoing research is needed to create and enhance cost-effective accounting approaches.

Implications of international GHG offsets on global climate change mitigation

With the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Agreements reached in Cancún, Mexico, in December 2010, the future role of international GHG offsets in climate action has become particularly uncertain. One of the more vexing questions is: how offsets will be accounted for in reporting and reviewing progress toward meeting countries’ emission-reduction pledges under the Cancún Agreements. This article quantifies the implications of double-counting international offsets by constructing and applying a model to analyse how potential offset supply and demand balances may evolve, based on specific assumptions about accounting rules, offset mechanisms, and country pledges for the year 2020. It is found that extensive use of international offsets, if counted both by the supplying (developing) and buying (developed) country, could effectively reduce the ambition of current pledges by up to 1.6 billion tonnes CO2e in 2020, suggesting that the current pledges could well fall even further short of the abatement needed to stay on a path consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C. If offsets do not represent additional reductions, then the dilution of pledges could be even greater. Possible remedies are described to address the risks of offset double-counting. Policy relevance This article finds that international GHG offsets could play a significant role in meeting developed-country pledges in 2020 – providing abatement to these countries exceeding 1 GtCO2e. Yet significant decisions remain that will substantially determine whether offsets will contribute productively to meeting a global mandate to reduce emissions on a pathway consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The prospect of double-counting is a loophole that could weaken the lower end of pledges by as much as 1.1 GtCO2e, and on the higher end of pledges by as much as 1.6 GtCO2e, significantly diluting the ambition of the Cancun Agreements. Coupled to this is the possibility of considerable non-additional credits, which could lead to the further weakening of pledges. Upcoming negotiations under the UNFCCC process will provide the opportunity to address these concerns directly.

Verifying greenhouse gas emissions of Annex I parties: Methods we have and methods we want

Despite the hopeful prediction in the New York Times story, we are very far from being able to use satellites to verify compliance with the Kyoto Protocol’s caps on greenhouse gas emissions of Annex I states. The problem is not only one of insufficiently developed or installed technology. “Satellite verification” would also mean changing the current system of reporting-and-review of state emissions, opening it up to independent scrutiny, and making it less forgiving of state evasiveness and ambiguity about emissions than it is now. Some states will be interested in this proposal and others will not. In any event, the current MRV system, built on bottom-up state reporting, will remain the dominant framework of international GHG emissions knowledge for the foreseeable future. To safeguard its own credibility, it must progressively be strengthened. In this article I outline the existing verification regime’s main shortcomings and argue that the most efficient way around them is to incorporate into the current MRV system top-down (satellite and surface) measurements, resolved by modeling software at the state level, and produced by independent scientific experts in cooperation with the UNFCCC.

United States Climate Policy: Using Market-Based Strategies to Achieve Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions

Unwanted climate change is resulting from the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by human activity. Pricing carbon through, for example, a cap-and-trade program or a tax on emissions, is thought to be one of the most effective and efficient potential mechanisms for reducing GHG emissions. This article analyzes the respective merits and drawbacks to a U.S. cap-and-trade system and a U.S. carbon tax. Treatment is also given to an optimal U.S. GHG reduction target. The article provides an overview of national, state, and international GHG policies and programs, and discusses prospective developments. Finally, the article provides an in-depth analysis and evaluation of the various design options available to carbon tax and cap-and-trade systems. The prevailing wisdom is that there is no other single policy effect that promises to deliver as steep a curve in emissions for as large a part of the total emission inventory as pricing emissions. Pricing is the way to get both the short-term gains through efficiency and the longer-term gains from investments in research and switching to cleaner fuels.

Kyoto commitments: macro and micro insights on trading and the Clean Development Mechanism

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we raise some issues related to the expected dimension of the carbon market. This analysis is based on a survey of model results on the implementation of the Kyoto goal with and without reliance on emissions trading. In particular, we consider both the emissions and the financial implications associated with different trading scenarios. Transfers related to international GHG trading might be equivalent to a 400% increase in foreign direct investment to countries with economies in transition. A closer look at the GHG reductions expected from the developing world also suggests that global models may be overly optimistic in their assessment of the contribution of flexibility mechanisms in meeting the Kyoto emission goals. OECD countries may need to rely more on domestic policies to reduce their emissions than what has so far been projected by global models. Second, we use a simple microeconomic model to test the potential contribution of typical power generation technologies in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism. Projects that are defined as additional in terms of the environment but already profitable can bring about significant results at a relatively low price of certified emission reductions. To assume that the contribution of the CDM will come close to what is projected by global models (both for prices and quantities) is to assume that such projects could be credited under the CDM.