Environmental review of fossil fuels projects—Principles for applying a “climate test” in the United States

Abstract

United States federal law requires major new fossil fuel production and infrastructure projects to undergo environmental review, including of associated greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Many state laws have similar requirements. The manner in which GHG emissions have been analyzed in recent years has been contentious, however, with starkly different methods used and conclusions reached. One of the central problems in these analyses has been that agencies have often concluded — incorrectly — that that if a given fossil project is not approved, some other entity would produce, transport, or consume all or nearly all of the fossil fuels that would be produced or transported by the project under review, and GHG emissions would be unchanged. This paper highlights the problems with this kind of analysis and proposes a refined approach that focuses on a project's relatively non-controversial, known emissions, thereby simplifying the underlying calculation. We further suggest a climate “test” that evaluates whether a project is consistent with agreed international, federal, and state GHG emission-reduction goals.