International Energy Policy Research Articles

About the Authors

About the Authors

Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China

China has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35 GW from 2007 to 2020. The country’s hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors. However, risks from China’s uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework, mainly due to uncertain Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits, prevent foreign investors from investing in China’s wind energy. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and (2) evaluate the impact of uncertain CDM benefits on the net present values of wind power projects. With four scenarios, this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions (CERs) from wind power projects. Project net present values (NPVs) have been calculated. The project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain CER prices. Our key findings show that uncertain CDM benefits will significantly affect the project NPVs. This paper concludes that the Chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives, most likely by introducing fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs), and re-examining its CDM-granting policy and its wind project tax rates, to facilitate wind power development and enable China to achieve its wind energy target.

HTR's role in process heat applications

Advanced high-temperature nuclear reactors create a number of new opportunities for nuclear process heat applications. These opportunities are based on the high-temperature heat available, smaller reactor sizes, and enhanced safety features that allow siting close to process plants. Major sources of value include the displacement of premium fuels and the elimination of CO 2 emissions from combustion of conventional fuels and their use to produce hydrogen. High value applications include steam production and cogeneration, steam methane reforming, and water splitting. Market entry by advanced high-temperature reactor technology is challenged by the evolution of nuclear licensing requirements in countries targeted for early applications, by the development of a customer base not familiar with nuclear technology and related issues, by convergence of oil industry and nuclear industry risk management, by development of public and government policy support, by resolution of nuclear waste and proliferation concerns, and by the development of new business entities and business models to support commercialization. New HTR designs may see a larger opportunity in process heat niche applications than in power given competition from larger advanced light water reactors. Technology development is required in many areas to enable these new applications, including the commercialization of new heat exchangers capable of operating at high temperatures and pressures, convective process reactors and suitable catalysts, water splitting system and component designs, and other process-side requirements. Key forces that will shape these markets include future fuel availability and pricing, implementation and monetization of CO 2 emission limits, and the formation of international energy and environmental policy that will support initiatives to provide the nuclear licensing frameworks and risk distribution needed to support private investment. This paper was developed based on a plenary session presentation at HTR-2006 which won Best Paper.

Innovating the innovators: the case for transformational energy Research and Development

This paper asks three interconnected questions: What type of energy R&D promotes long-term, transformative innovation? Which types of research do energy R&D organisations predominately practice? What are the consequences of their approaches? The paper begins by distinguishing between incremental and transformative R&D. Then, it documents five emerging energy challenges facing the USA and the world. Using the US Department of Energy (DOE) as a case study, it next explores whether that organisation is more dedicated to promoting incremental innovation or transformative change. The article concludes by offering some preliminary implications for American and international energy policy.

A bargain born of a paradox: the oil industry's role in American domestic and foreign policy

Scholarly attention to oil reached its zenith in the late 1980s. Spirited debates on regime theory, neorealism and American hegemony dovetailed with the aftermath of the oil shocks, the ongoing Ira...

The benefits of remote sensing for energy policy

Abstract A strong remote sensing regime is a necessary component of any contemporary national or international energy policy. Energy is essential to the functioning of modern industrial society, and as such it is the responsibility of governments to produce sound national energy policies in order to ensure stable economic growth, ecologically responsible use of energy resources and the health and safety of citizens. Comprehensive, accurate and timely remote sensing data can aid decision making on energy matters in several areas. This paper looks at the benefits that can be realized in resource exploration, weather forecasting and environmental monitoring. Improvements in the technology of remote sensing platforms would be of great value to buyers of energy, sellers of energy and the environment. Furthermore, the utility of such information could be enhanced by efforts of government agencies to communicate it more effectively to the end-user. National energy policies should thus include investments not only in satellite system hardware to collect data, but also in the services required to interpret and distribute the data.

Conference on the International Energy Policy in Russia and the Law of the Sea

Conference on the International Energy Policy in Russia and the Law of the Sea

Energy for sustainable development: Review of national and international energy policies

This article presents an assessment of the effectiveness of national and international energy policies directed toward the objectives of sustainable development contained in Agenda 21. Following a brief overview of energy and transport sector trends over the past ten years, the article discusses whether and to what extent energy policies for sustainable development have impacted on poverty reduction, energy security, equitable access to energy, and transition to a more efficient and environmentally sound energy system.The impact of policies is assessed considering that such a transition involves appropriate combinations of energy efficient technologies and usage patterns, wider use of renewable energy, and gradual induction of advanced energy technologies. The article then examines the extent to which such policies have been based on integrated assessments of the needs and priorities in economic growth, social development and environmental protection and identifies some of the main constraints and barriers hampering the implementation of energy for sustainable development. The article also examines whether decision‐making processes ensure multi‐stakeholder participation in policy development and support a fair sharing of commitments, responsibilities and benefits among the participating stakeholders in policy implementation. Selected case studies of policies that have made a tangible difference in promoting energy for sustainable development are outlined.Finally the article discusses the challenges facing energy for sustainable development and discusses various options to accelerate the implementation of its goals.

The United States New Energy Policy: A European Perspective

The US National Energy Policy report calls for greater energy efficiency , a modernized energy infrastructure and increased energy supplies. This comment highlights the salient points of the report and compares them w ith similar issues of concern for the European Union (EU). The US policy is a comprehensiv e package of proposals w hose main objectiv e seems to be to satisfy the ambitions of the energy industries either by easing environmental rules or by opening public lands for exploration. Therefore the US policy stresses increased oil, gas, coal and nuclear production while the EU emphasises renewable energy , demand management and energy conservation. Climate change and the Kyoto Protocol are at the centre of the European Commission's Green Paper and are having an important influence on the EU energy policy. The US policy makes, however, no reference to the Kyoto Protocol. The US approach to international energy policy appears to be similarto the EU. Both sides placeas much emphasis on relations wi...

Caspian Energy at the Crossroads

In response to recent oil and gas price hikes, recurring blackouts in California, and other symptoms of a U.S. energy crisis, both the Bush administration and the Senate have made national energy security a top priority. Whereas the Bush team has advocated increased domestic energy production, the Senate?now under Democratic control?has emphasized conservation. Neither side, however, has given adequate attention to international energy policy, particularly U.S. policy toward the Caspian region. The countries surrounding the Caspian Sea?Russia to the north, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to the east, Iran to the south, and Azerbaijan to the west?hold some of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world. And together with neighboring Armenia, Georgia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, they represent important economic, political, and strategic interests for the United States. To advance those interests, Washington should strengthen its policy toward the Caspian by giving the highest level of support to the cooperative development of regional energy reserves and pipelines. In particular, it should encourage the construction of multiple pipelines to ensure diverse and reliable transportation of Caspian energy to regional and international markets.

Australian and international renewable energy policy initiatives

Despite efforts in Australia and other developed countries, greenhouse gas emissions from most countries continue to rise and the targets set in 1997 for emission reductions in the Kyoto Protocol are becoming more difficult to achieve. Without coordinated policy development and successful policy implementation, there is a chance that the major players will not ratify the Protocol and efforts at a global response to emissions control will be abandoned. Renewable energy technologies offer the only long term strategy for emissions reduction. This paper summarises policy initiatives used around the world to support their development and use and suggests some strategies for Australia.

Oil Production Forecasts for the year 2020 Suggest that Reserves will be Larger in 2020 than in 1998

The US DOE/EIA prepares the most detailed, coherent and credible forecasts of energy supply and demand in the USA through to the year 2020. These are the forecasts on which national and international energy policy is made and on which commercial decisions are taken.

Long-term global energy supplies with acceptable environmental impacts

Unremitting population growths, coupled with rising standards of living, have been responsible for escalation of energy consumption. There is an identifiable minimum per capita energy use to assure an acceptable quality of life. The need for adequate energy supplies with tolerable environmental impacts has become the key factor driving domestic and international energy policies. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations as the result of fossil-fuel combustion require cost comparisons of potential environmental damages with source-removal or replacement technologies; uncertainties of these assessments are discussed. Past failures to find replacements for imported oil and the absence of a coherent U.S. energy policy reflect economic, technological and scientific uncertainties, as well as changes in program goals. Stable public-sector allocations of funds for expenditures on developing energy technologies require implementation of a new methodology that begins with a perceived public need for the product or project and includes advantages in international competition for successful private-sector participants.

Managing the Interrelationship: Energy, People, and Environment

This paper reports on international energy policy also discussed are environmental policies, energy conservation, global aspects, resource management and energy sources.

Global Warming and Least-Cost Energy Planning

Energy consumption is implicated in the growing emissions of all the major greenhouse gases'': carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, nitrous oxide, and tropospheric ozone. All trap heat emitted from the earth's surface, a phenomenon that could accelerate to destroy the same planetary ecosystems that it has nurtured in the past. Strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions are this article's principal concern; increases in such emissions account for about half the projected atmospheric warming, with the increases themselves principally attributable to fossil fuel combustion. The United States is the world's largest emissions source, and while it cannot succeed alone, neither can it abdicate leadership responsibilities without all but ensuring failure. This article contends that US energy policy has been working to increase, rather than forestall, the danger of global warming. In particular, recent trends toward deregulation of the energy sector are grossly insufficient as solutions to the problem, although not necessarily inconsistent with them. The article outlines a way to organize urgent US and international energy policy reforms, drawing on the experience of certain state utility regulators with an approach called least-cost energy planning.'' Least-cost planning recognizes improvements in the efficiency of energy use as a major source of additional energy supplies,more » and seeks fair competition for energy investment dollars between conservation measures and production facilities.« less

The politics of oil A view from Norway

The global character of energy supplies, and the challenges facing us as regards the use of energy create new imperatives. Every nation should implement domestic and international energy policies that duly reflect the importance of energy to the environment and to general economic and political development. Progress in the world of today and tomorrow will be fundamentally dependent on our ability to cooperate despite differences in culture, political systems and the narrow interests of individual nations.

International Energy Policy: The Conflict of Investment Needs and Market Signals

Twenty-one years ago, Resources for the Future (RFF), then about ten years old, released a heavy tome of a little over a thousand pages, half text and half statistical appendix, called Resources in America's Future. Together with my two coauthors, Leonard L. Fischman and Joseph L. Fisher, RFF's president at the time, I had put considerable effort into the project. So had fifteen staff members and consultants and eight research assistants. To the best of my knowledge, none of them ever revisited the scene after 1963, and if they did, they didn't tell the world. We hold no reunions, observe no anniversaries. Still I have never quite freed myself of a degree of curiosity, best phrased as "how did we come out?" My own copy of the book bears the scars of that curiosity. It is full of penciled-in figures, put there in different years, without much orderliness. Once in a while, a current event would cause me to do some quick figuring, some comparison shopping. But it has all been quite unsystematic.

Modeling for insights, not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum

It has often been contended that the primary goal of policy modeling should be the insights quantitative models can provide, not the precise-looking projections—i.e. numbers—they can produce for any given scenario. Students of the energy policy process, in particular, have noted that preoccupation with the plethora of detailed quantitative results produced by large-scale computer models has substantially impeded their influence on key policy decisions. The creation of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University in 1976 represents one potential remedy for that situation. The EMF was formed to foster better communication between the builders and users of energy models in energy planning and policy analysis. The EMF operates through ad hoc working groups, composed of national and, more recently, international energy modeling and policy experts. These working groups conduct studies concentrating on a single energy topic. The diversity of backgrounds of the working group members ensures that the language of the EMF studies is English, not computer. Each working group identifies existing models relevant to the study's focus. A series of tests is then designed by the group to illuminate the models' basic structure and behavior. A comparison of results is published in a widely distributed report that identifies the models' strengths and weaknesses in the context of the study's topic. Seven EMF studies have been initiated to date: (1) Energy and the economy, (2) Coal in transition, (3) Electric load forecasting, (4) Aggregate elasticity of energy demand, (5) US oil and gas supply, (6) World oil and (7) Macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks. Each EMF study has broadened the understanding of the nature of the relevant policy issues and the models that have been, are, or could be used to address them. The present paper describes how each study's key insights were developed in the context of a simplified analytical framework that provided the proper perspective for understanding the model results.

International Energy Policy, by Robert M. Lawrence and Martin O. Heisler

International Energy Policy, <i>by Robert M. Lawrence and Martin O. Heisler</i>

Long-term energy projections for the U.S.A.

This report starts by surveying a series of papers that are representative of recent U.S. work on national and international energy policy. Among professional analysts, there are the beginnings of a consensus on energy demand projections and on energy-economy interactions. Moreover, it is recognized that conservation policies will be difficult to implement unless domestic prices are raised to the international level. The paper includes a series of long-term energy projections based upon ETA-MACRO. This model allows for: energy-economy interactions, cost-effective conservation and interfuel substitution between electric and nonelectric energy. the calculations are based upon a somewhat less optimistic view of synthetic fuels and of ‘backstop’ technologies than appear in the Carter Administration's recent proposals. With synfuels, backstops and nuclear energy—and with realistically reduced projections of demand growth—there is a reasonable prospect that the U.S. could meet an international commitment to limit oil and gas imports. U.S. import reductions could be achieved directly through the market price mechanism, without tariffs or quota limitations. For this to happen, however, the international price of oil would have to be doubled (in constant dollar terms) by the year 2000. A policy of gradual OPEC oil price increases would facilitate the transition away from oil, and could serve the long-run interests of both the producing and consuming nations.