International Energy Agency Research Articles

Классификация и анализ локализации проектов по производству водорода

The analysis of hydrogen projects is based on the information presented in the open database of the International Energy Agency (IEA) which contains 1327 projects for the production of hydrogen and products based on it, implemented in more than 100 countries around the world. It is proposed to use two classification approaches to identify the current trends in the development of hydrogen projects. The first approach is based on the project classification according to their implementation period, and the second one uses the classification of project implementation stages proposed in the IEA database. The complex application of the described approaches makes it possible to carry out a systematic analysis of the data presented in the IEA database. Projects using electrolysis technologies for hydrogen production are considered separately from projects using alternative technologies. The geographical localization of projects was analyzed following the place of their implementation in one of the four regions of the world: Europe, Asia, America, and Oceania with Africa. The distribution of project capacities by country is presented for all regions. It has been established that the global capacity of electrolysis projects for hydrogen production has reached 310?MW, and, with the successful implementation of 350 promising projects currently being developed, their total capacity can reach 65 GW by 2030. In addition, about 80 concept projects with a total capacity of more than 230 GW are in the early stages of development. If all these promising projects are implemented, the total volume of hydrogen production, taking into account electrolysis projects, can reach more than 50 million tons by 2030, which will contribute to the achievement of global decarbonization goals. The results of the analysis allow us to conclude that currently, projects for hydrogen production and products based on it are rapidly developing in the world, mainly due to the ambitious hydrogen strategies of the countries of the European Union and the UK.

Стратегические тренды энергетического развития северных территорий России

The dynamic development of the energy market is the source of Russia’s energy diversification processes. The study presents key areas in the development of the Russian energy sector, taking into account new trends and challenges. The Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is potentially becoming a growth driver for the energy market and opens up “new windows” for the country’s economic develop-ment. It is determined that the structure of consumption, use of resources, generation and transmission of electricity is changing. Long-term trends in the energy transition demonstrate a change in the energy balance in favor of clean energy sources: wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, hydropower, hydrogen, and bioenergy. The development of hydrogen energy, including in the northern territories of Russia, creates a reliable basis for integration into the global hydrogen infrastructure. The change in the energy balance in favor of renewable energy sources (RES) is presented. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), RES will account for up to 95% of new energy capacity additions by 2026. The global climate agenda — the rejection of fossil fuels — creates new challenges for the Russian economy and the development of its Arctic investment projects. It has been established that the current situation in the context of global technological breakthroughs and climate change is shaping the transition from vertical integration to distributed generation and decentralization. The purpose of the study is to analyze current trends in the development of the energy market, based on the results of which it is necessary to adjust the approaches of the Russian energy sector to future development, making maximum use of the opportunities of the northern territories of Russia.

Optimization model of solar cooling system with latent heat storage

Today, the fastest growing end-use in the buildings sector is cooling demand, notes the International Energy Agency (IEA). In the last few years, the interest in solar cooling systems has been growing globally. Solar cooling systems are the next solution to meet the growing demand for air conditioning. The literature analysis shows that solar cooling systems mainly use single-stage absorption chillers, with water as the working fluid, and only a small fraction of them use phase change materials to improve heat storage. Based on previous studies on solar-assisted cooling systems, the use of phase change materials for thermal storage should be investigated.The paper will present a study of a solar cooling system with the optimized PCM thermal storage, with the aim of stabilizing the operation of heat storage, taking into account the volatility of solar energy, the impact of short-term operations and peak hours on the amount of heat produced. This means that the amount of electricity consumed to heat up the accumulation tank will be significantly reduced. The optimization model in simulation software will be performed to test solar cooling system with latent heat storage, with aim to investigate the efficiency of the developed latent energy storage and provide technical guidance for the implementation of such system in the practice. All indicators, including environmental impact and economic calculations, will be identified in order to determinate the specific systems for foresight market uptake.

Alberta's Renewable Energy Market: Developing Contract Issues

Governments and corporations around the world have increasingly demonstrated leadership in tackling climate change, resulting in new decarbonization policies and initiatives and new corporate environmental, social, and governance mandates. At the same time, wind and solar capital costs have decreased and new technologies, such as battery storage, are becoming more prevalent, thereby increasing the flexibility and utility of renewable energy generation. Developers and investors have already expended significant capital to further the development of renewable generation with, according to the International Energy Agency, renewable energy investment reaching its highest level ever in 2021 — $367 billion internationally. This trend is only expected to increase if the global decarbonization goals are to be realized. Within Canada, Alberta is at the forefront of renewable energy development due in part to its unique power industry structure — a deregulated, competitive, wholesale power market with non-discriminatory system access — which has attracted corporate off-takers and buoyed investment in renewable energy projects in the province, supported by corporate power purchase agreements. The pace of development is striking, and Alberta has rapidly become a preferred destination for renewable energy investment. The Alberta Electric System Operator says that 22 percent of the energy generated in Alberta in 2021 came from renewable energy sources. This is predictedto rise sharply — for instance, there are 61 solar projects currently under development in Alberta that could be completed by the middle of the decade. This article examines several emerging contracting and development challenges currently facing renewable energy projects in Alberta, and aims to provide concrete, practical advice on several discrete contractual issues. Topics covered include, among others: (1) force majeure issues faced by project developers; (2) diverse carbon offset/renewable attributes programs and implications for power purchase arrangements; (3) developments pertaining to ethical procurement, including forced labour and the use of tracing protocols; and (4) the need for increased flexibility in contractual arrangements to accommodate the pairing of wind and solar with storage resources. Although this article is based primarily on experiences gained while developing renewable energy projects in Alberta, the analyses and solutions presented can be applied in many jurisdictions.

Spatial energy density of large-scale electricity generation from power sources worldwide

This paper introduces the annual energy density concept for electric power generation, which is proposed as an informative metric to capture the impacts on the environmental footprint. Our investigation covers a wide range of sources classified by rated power and compares different regions to establish typical spatial flows of energy and evaluate the corresponding scalability to meet future net-zero emission (NZE) goals. Our analysis is conducted based on publicly available information pertaining to different regions and remote satellite image data. The results of our systematic analysis indicate that the spatial extent of electric power generation toward 2050 will increase approximately sixfold, from approximately 0.5% to nearly 3.0% of the world's land area, based on International Energy Agency (IEA) NZE 2050 targets. We investigate the worldwide energy density for ten types of power generation facilities, two involving nonrenewable sources (i.e., nuclear power and natural gas) and eight involving renewable sources (i.e., hydropower, concentrated solar power (CSP), solar photovoltaic (PV) power, onshore wind power, geothermal power, offshore wind power, tidal power, and wave power). In total, our study covers 870 electric power plants worldwide, where not only the energy density but also the resulting land or sea area requirements to power the world are estimated. Based on the provided meta-analysis results, this paper challenges the common notion that solar power is the most energy-dense renewable fuel source by demonstrating that hydropower supersedes solar power in terms of land use in certain regions of the world, depending on the topography.

A novel resonant controller for sea-induced rotor blade vibratory loads reduction on floating offshore wind turbines

A novel multi-layer control approach for offshore floating wind turbines is presented, suitable for alleviating the vibratory loads while keeping the generator power output stable. It consists of the simultaneous application of different control strategies, each optimized for a specific objective. The proposed multi-layer scheme’s main scope is to reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy. Two resonant controllers based on collective blade pitch actuation are applied for the rejection of the vibratory loads induced by sea waves. In contrast, a proportional–integral controller, fed by measured cyclic blade root flapping moments, provides the blade cyclic pitch to be actuated to reduce blade root loads at the rotor revolution frequency. The proposed control strategy is validated by simulations on: (i) the NREL (U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory) 5 MW wind turbine, supported by a spar buoy or a semi-submersible platform; (ii) the 15 MW IEA (International Energy Agency) wind turbine supported by a semi-submersible platform. These show that significant reductions of the vibratory blade root flapping moments and rotor nacelle assembly loads are achievable, thus demonstrating the good potential performance of the controller introduced.

Energy system transition pathways to meet the global electricity demand for ambitious climate targets and cost competitiveness

This study presents a novel energy system modelling approach for the analysis and comparison of global energy transition pathways for the decarbonisation of the electricity sector. The results of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Teske/DLR scenarios are each reproduced. Additionally, five new energy transition trajectories, called LUT, are presented. The research examines the feasibility of each scenario across nine major regions in 5-year intervals, from 2015 to 2050, under a uniform modelling environment with identical technical and financial assumptions. The main differences between the energy transition paths are identified across: (1) the average electricity generation costs; (2) energy diversity; (3) system flexibility; (4) energy security; and, (5) transition dynamics. All LUT and Teske/DLR scenarios are transitioned to zero CO2 emissions and a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 at the latest. Results reveal that the LUT scenarios are the least-cost pathways, while the Teske/DLR scenarios are centred around energy diversity with slightly higher LCOE of around 10–20%. The IEA shares similarities with the Teske/DLR scenarios in terms of energy diversity yet depends on the continued use of fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, and nuclear power. The IEA scenario based on current governmental policies presents a worst-case situation regarding CO2 emissions reduction, climate change and overall system costs.

Energy Transition Manifesto: A Contribution towards the Discourse on the Specifics Amid Energy Crisis

The article seeks to describe a more realistic approach to the transition to a carbon-neutral energy model in the current period of economic and geopolitical turbulence, with the high volatility of energy prices, and the disruption of geopolitical and logistic ties, and puts forward a set of fundamental principles for the energy transition. The hypothesis tested is that the development of low-carbon energy is based on the structural-technological diversification of production methods and rationalization of energy consumption through expanded electrification and application of energy demand-side management programs. The analysis of the main approaches to the energy transition across the world shows that many countries now prioritize renewable energy sources, even though, despite their obvious environmental benefits, they are less reliable due to their intermittent nature. The proposed principles of the energy transition draw from a more flexible, compromise approach that implies an optimal balance of mutually reinforcing centralized and distributed technologies of energy generation and their characteristics. The key provisions of the manifesto were verified by means of theoretical generalization and graphical interpretation of data from a number of analytical reports of international energy agencies and the results of an expert opinion survey. The survey was conducted among leading Russian experts from energy companies, who had relevant experience of developing innovation projects in this sphere, and university researchers. Most of them subscribe to the view that, despite the economic downturn, it would be unfeasible to curtail energy transition programs at this point, and even more so, it is important to continue local modernization projects. The results of the study could have a practical application when planning structural, organizational, and market transformations aimed at achieving the objectives of energy transition amid growing uncertainty, including the expansion of the structure of generating capacities in regional energy systems and the active use of low-carbon technologies in the energy sector and related industries.

Economic-Comparative Study for Carbon Neutrality During Ships Docking and in Port Operations: A Path Towards Maritime Sector Decarbonization

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports, the maritime sector was responsible for around 2% of global energy-related Carbon Dioxide (CO2eq) emissions in 2020 (i.e., 714 Mton). Currently, Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) is used for supplying main and auxiliary Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) on board ships, therefore it is responsible for local and global pollution. As matter of fact, HFO is contaminated with several different compounds including aromatics, sulfur, and nitrogen, making emission upon combustion more polluting compared to other fuel oils. In order to reduce pollution in maritime sector, the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) has prohibited ships using of HFO in ports. In this purpose, new solutions involving cleaner fuels as well as new propulsion technologies are needed.This paper is aimed to evaluate the environmental advantages that can be reached by replacing the HFO with low emission fuels and alternative power technologies. In particular, three cases have been investigated: i) ICEs fed by diesel, ii) Fuel Cell Systems fed by “Yellow” hydrogen, iii) Fuel Cell Systems fed by “Green” hydrogen. The analysis has been carried out by applying the Well-to-Waves (WTW) method for estimating and comparing the avoided CO2eq and NOx emissions. Moreover, the economic feasibility has been carried out by estimating the investment and operating costs.

Multicriteria Decision Making and Its Application in Geothermal Power Project

The International Energy Agency (IEA) assesses Vietnam as the second largest electricity user in Southeast Asia. The energy consumption growth rate in the region is one of the fastest in the world, with demand growing at a steady 6% per year for the past 20 years. Within the context that domestic fossil fuel production cannot keep up with demand and climate change is occurring, to avoid depending on imported energy to operate the power system, the Government of Vietnam has turned to developing renewable energy. The potential for developing geothermal energy in Vietnam is promising with more than 200 sources of water around 40 to 100 °C, which is sufficient for the development of geothermal energy projects. Today, a method to conserve natural resources and invest in renewable energy is provided by the government by controlling the importation of gas and coal while investing in building geothermal power plants. One of the hardest problems, however, is determining a suitable place to construct a geothermal power plant (GPP). For this main reason, in the hope of solving this problem, the author has proposed a decision-making model that utilizes a fuzzy set under multi-criteria conditions. It uses two methods, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) followed by Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS), for a GPP site selection decision. The FAHP model is first used to determine the weights of each criterion and sub-criterion. Then, the ranking of each alternative is calculated by the WASPAS model. A final alternative is determined to be the best solution based on calculations from the methods above for identifying suitable locations for a GPP. This research has contributed a method of using a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model for determining a suitable location selection. This contribution also shows a development of flexibility towards decision making for other renewable energy projects worldwide.

Analysis of the optimal policy for managing strategic petroleum reserves under long-term uncertainty: The ASEAN case

We examine the issue of petroleum stockpiling in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), computing the optimal build-up and draw-down policies under different conditions. We study, in detail, the properties of petroleum prices, oil imports and production, and GDP, analyzing the impact of the planning horizon, discount rate and price elasticity of demand on the optimal policy. We use a finite horizon stochastic program (with varying branching) in which the policymaker minimizes the negative impacts of oil price increases on the GDP and the cost of holding the strategic petroleum reserve. We propose an inter-generational equity rule to compute the level of inventory in the final states of the decision tree. We find that ASEAN countries would benefit significantly from developing a strategic petroleum reserve, with net benefits ranging from US$25–125 billion. Our suggested target stockpile is consistent with the International Energy Agency’s recommendation of holding stocks equal to 90 days of net imports.

A group decision-making method to measure national energy architecture performance: A case study of the International energy Agency

The World Economic Forum has developed the Energy Architecture Performance Index (EAPI) to help nations or regions gain insights into the status of energy systems, with the goal of Steering energy systems to be more affordable, sustainable, and secure. The EAPI is the arithmetic mean of energy triangle: economic growth and development (EGD), environmental sustainability (ES), and energy access and security (EAS). However, the preference diversity among EGD, ES and EAS of energy analysts or decision-makers has been largely unexplored. This study, based on the EAPI framework, proposes a group decision-making (GDM) method with preference analysis to measure national energy architecture performance. Specifically, an initial group decision matrix is firstly developed in terms of identifying the importance orders of energy triangle as individual decision makers; then the preference diversities of decision-makers are extensively investigated from the three aspects of psychological preferences, preferential differences, preferential priorities to construct a revised group decision-making matrix; the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) is ultimately employed to calculate and compare the national energy architecture performance. A case study using the data of the International Energy Agency (IEA) is conducted to validate the proposed method, in which the satisfaction levels and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients analysis are carried out to demonstrate the merits of our method.

A Green Fiscal Pact for the EU: increasing climate investments while consolidating budgets

ABSTRACT To ensure sufficiently rapid decarbonization to meet the Paris Agreement goals, investments in green infrastructure will have to increase by an estimated 2% of world GDP annually, according to the International Energy Agency. A significant part of that investment will need to be funded with public resources – raising major tensions between consolidation needs after the high deficits during the pandemic and the need to increase investments. We consider this trade-off in the European Union, which has set itself one of the most ambitious climate targets in the world. The additional public investment required to meet the European Union’s climate goals is around 0.6% of GDP annually during this decade, which might increase if the green transition is accelerated due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Budget consolidation can be done at a moderate pace in line with EU fiscal rules if those rules are interpreted flexibly, but past consolidation episodes resulted in major public investment cuts. A ‘green golden rule’ –excluding net green investment from the fiscal indicators used to measure fiscal rule compliance– is proposed as the most promising option to address this tension and would provide a positive incentive to undertake such investments. However, the uncertain growth impact of green public spending and the risks to growth from climate change create difficult trade-offs in fiscally weaker countries. Better regulatory policy and a higher price on emissions should in parallel incentivise private green investment and reduce public costs. These ingredients should be combined to form a ‘Green Fiscal Pact’. Key policy insights Public investments tend to be cut in fiscal consolidation episodes by vote-maximising politicians and thus need to be treated differently in fiscal rules. Increasing green public investments will be difficult in the upcoming consolidation period. A ‘green golden rule’ –excluding net green public investment from the fiscal rule indicators– is proposed as the best option to incentivise public climate investment. Policymakers need to underpin such a rule by clearly defining what constitutes emission-reducing climate investments and monitoring compliance. Fossil fuel subsidies should also be eliminated, and private climate investment should be incentivised through appropriate taxation and regulation. Climate change may tighten budget constraints in countries with already high debt levels because of its negative growth effects, so these countries should delay the introduction of the green golden rule.

An integrated supply chain analysis for cobalt and rare earth elements under global electrification and constrained resources

As global electrification becomes more prominent, demand is projected to increase for electric vehicles (EVs), their components (EV batteries, rare earth traction motors), and their raw materials (cobalt, rare earths). To analyze the supply chain constraints associated with these components and raw materials, a system dynamics model was developed to simulate the interactions between the rare earth and cobalt supply chains. Results showed that under current understanding of raw material resources, production of the projected volume of EVs could be inadequate. To meet the aggressive EV volume sale projections set by the International Energy Agency, EV manufacturers will need to implement a large portion of traction motors without rare earths and utilize non-cobalt batteries as much as possible. On the supply side, a much faster ramp-up than what being modeled would be needed to meet much higher demand than current market forecasts.

Contribution of Agroforestry Biomass Valorisation to Energy and Environmental Sustainability

According to data provided by the International Energy Agency, buildings consume more than one-third of the energy produced globally and represent a major source of carbon dioxide-related emissions [...]

Assessment and uncertainty quantification of onshore geological CO2 storage capacity in China

We provide a probabilistic assessment of CO2 storage capacity in major sedimentary basins in China. Our approach embeds constraints associated with the increase of reservoir pore pressure due to injection of CO2 in the presence of resident brine. Pressure build-up must be limited to avoid fault reactivation, caprock failure, and possible leakage, resulting in more conservative estimates of CO2 storage capacity as compared to volumetric estimates.We rely on a numerical Monte Carlo framework considering uncertainty in the values of reservoir size and major geological formation attributes (i.e., absolute permeability, porosity, and reservoir compressibility). Our work shows that 10 major basins can potentially store, on average, 1350 Gt of CO2 during the next 30 years (lower and upper quartiles being 1100 and 1700 Gt of CO2, respectively). This far exceeds the likely amount (up to 175 Gt of CO2) required to be stored by 2050. Our analysis also suggests that 6 basins (located close to the largest emission areas) can store about 93 Gt (on average) of CO2 during the next 30 years. Underground carbon storage in China, coupled with other possible solutions, could meet the aims of the Announced Pledges Scenario (International Energy Agency) to mitigate global warming by 2060.We also perform a global sensitivity analysis to determine how our predictions of storage capacity may be affected by uncertainties in the simulation model input parameters. Moment-based global sensitivity metrics suggest that geological formation attributes are major sources of uncertainty, significantly affecting model outputs and the associated uncertainty.

Research challenges and needs for the deployment of wind energy in hilly and mountainous regions

Abstract. The continuing transition to renewable energy will require more wind turbines to be installed and operated on land and offshore. On land, wind turbines will increasingly be deployed in hilly or mountainous regions, which are often described together as “complex terrain” in the wind energy industry. These areas can experience complex flows that are hard to model, as well as cold climate conditions that lead to instrument and blade icing and can further impact wind turbine operation. This paper – a collaboration between several International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Tasks and research groups based in mountainous countries – sets out the research and development needed to improve the financial competitiveness and ease of integration of wind energy in hilly or mountainous regions. The focus of the paper is on the interaction between the atmosphere, terrain, land cover, and wind turbines, during all stages of a project life cycle. The key needs include collaborative research and development facilities, improved wind and weather models that can cope with mountainous terrain, frameworks for sharing data, and a common, quantitative definition of site complexity. Addressing these needs will be essential for the affordable and reliable large-scale deployment of wind energy in many countries across the globe. Because of the widespread nature of complex flow and icing conditions, addressing these challenges will have positive impacts on the risk and cost of energy from wind energy globally.

Energiewende – Einblicke und Ausblicke

AbstractThe success of the energy transition in relation to achieving a low carbon fossil‐free energy of the future largely depends on the extent to which collective efforts are geared towards specific goals, as the actual transformation of the energy sector is shaped by many challenges and uncertainties. Pandemics, uninterrupted supply chains and ongoing conflicts add to the complexity of the situation. The International Energy Agency has published its ”World Energy Outlook“ since 1998 and demonstrates ways of achieving a decarbonised energy of the future based on different scenarios. Taking three energy scenarios as the starting point, possible routes and corresponding effects by 2050 are outlined.

Analysis of Green Self Identity and Environment Concern on Adopt Electric Vehicle Intention with Perception of EV and Subjective Norm as Mediation Variables

The issue of environmental damage often arises in recent years, as a result of continuous and uncontrolled emission of harmful atmospheric pollutants. through various human activities. The consumption of fossil fuels by industry as well as the transportation system is considered to be the main reason, from which several studies have paid considerable attention to the pollution caused by vehicles. As indicated by the statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA), a recent estimate of the number of one million vehicles used worldwide, with daily consumption of about 60 million barrels per day (nearly 70% of total oil production); nearly 36 million barrels of daily oil consumption is attributed to private vehicles, which cause the emission of 14 million tons of carbon dioxide. As a result, the replacement of conventional vehicles with renewable energy vehicles can be considered as a promising solution. In this regard, electric vehicles are expected to reduce negative effects on the environment and also help conserve scarce non-renewable fuel reserves throughout the life cycle. Electric Vehicles are considered an effective alternative to sustaining transportation through the reduction of oil dependence and subsequent air pollution, leading to significant health and environmental benefits. The purpose of this study is to analyze consumer behavior towards the intention to adopt an electric vehicle by involving the variables of Green Self Identity, Environment Concern, Perception of Electric Vehicle, and Subjective Norms. With 250 respondents spread across Indonesia and using the SmartPLS software, the results of a partial analysis of Green Self Identity proved to have an effect on Environment Concern. Meanwhile, Environment Concern was proven to affect Perception of EV and Subjective Norms, but did not affect Adoption Intention. For the indirect effect analysis, Perception of EV and Subjective Norms variables proved to be mediating variables between Environment Concern and Adoption Intention.

Verification and Validation of Model-Scale Turbine Performance and Control Strategies for the IEA Wind 15 MW Reference Wind Turbine

To enable the fast growth of the floating offshore wind industry, simulation models must be validated with experimental data. Floating wind model-scale experiments in wind–wave facilities have been performed over the last two decades with varying levels of fidelity and limitations. However, the turbine controls in these experiments have considered only limited control strategies and implementations. To allow for control co-design, this research focuses on implementing and experimentally validating more advanced turbine control actions and strategies in a wind–wave basin for a 1:70-scale model of the International Energy Agency’s wind 15 MW reference wind turbine. The control strategies analyzed include torque control, collective pitch control, and transition region control (setpoint smoothing). Our experimental and numerical results include the effects of varying rotor speeds, blade pitches, and wind environments on the turbine thrust and torque. Numerical models from three different software tools are presented and compared to the experimental results. Their ability to effectively represent the aero-dynamic response of the wind turbine to the control actions is successfully validated. Finally, turbine controller tuning parameters based on the derivatives of thrust and torque are derived to allow for improved offshore wind turbine dynamics and to validate the ability of modeling tools to model the dynamics of floating offshore wind turbines with control co-design.