International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations Research Articles

The Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuations on Chinas Stock Performance of Clean Energy Industry: Under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Crude oil is an important component of the global energy market, and its price fluctuations have a huge impact on the economy and the environment. As a large oil consumer, China has a great demand for non-renewable resources such as crude oil. With the sustainable and stable development of China's economy, its dependence on imported crude oil is deepening, and the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on China's energy industry is also gradually deepening. In addition, with the impact of epidemic, geopolitical, environmental crisis and financial crisis in recent years, the international crude oil price has produced drastic fluctuations, so the study of the relationship between the international crude oil futures price fluctuations and the stock prices of clean energy companies is of great significance for the development of new energy industry and domestic energy security. This paper applies the VAR model to examine the links between Brent crude oil index, WTI crude oil index and Chinas Clean Energy Theme Index (CET), and the ARMA-GARCHX model to investigate the impact of international oil price on Chinas clean energy market after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The empirical results show that international crude oil price fluctuation has a short-term alternating impact on Chinas clean energy theme index yield and provides useful insights to investors.

Oil Price Volatility, Macroeconomic Policy & Economic Growth

Since oil entered the production and life of mankind, it has profoundly affected and changed the whole world. With the continuous development of society, oil has become one of the indispensable energy sources for modern industrial production and life. At the same time, petroleum, with its special commodity attribute, is closely linked with national strategic interests and is an important strategic material for all countries in the world. The fluctuation of the international oil market and the change in the oil price are pulling the development of the global economy, even contributing to the outbreak of the financial crisis. In this paper, the three major oil crises in history as a starting point, from the nature of oil to seek the international oil price fluctuations, and fluctuations of the theoretical basis to build a new theoretical analysis of international oil price fluctuations path. From the aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and other, specific aspects of the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the macroeconomy. At the same time, an analysis of China and the west monetary policy explores the national currency, monetary policy, and international crude oil price fluctuations between the relationship. Finally, the paper discusses the influence of the fluctuation of international crude oil prices on the national macro-economy, and takes China as an example, drawing the conclusion that the change in oil prices will have many influences on the national macro-economy.

Influence of RMB Internationalization on International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation

In recent years, China has been gradually improving its international status. As far as monetary policy is concerned, China has been gradually promoting the internationalization of the RMB, aiming to reduce its dependence on the international financial market dominated by the US dollar and reduce the impact of the Federal Reserve's political measures on the domestic economy. Under the influence of global economic and financial market factors such as COVID-19, the international financial system dominated by the US dollar is unstable and dangerous, and the international financial system has become more volatile. In contrast, the implementation of this measure will have an impact on some international financial transactions, such as stock market price fluctuations, commodity prices and foreign exchange transactions. For a long time, the oil price has been dominated by the US dollar due to the linkage between the US dollar and oil, and has increased with the appreciation of the US dollar. However, the process of people's internationalization affected the oil price by changing this traditional logic and impacted the global status of the US dollar, thus reducing the oil price by triggering the decline of the US dollar. This paper would like to focus on elaborating the influence of RMB internationalization on international crude oil price fluctuation.

Analysis of the Economic Impact of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuations on China

This paper analyzes and examines the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on China's economy. By constructing an SVAR model between crude oil prices and China's economy, prices and monetary policy, we study the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on some important economic indicators in China and explore their intrinsic relationships. The empirical results show that the increase in crude oil prices has a significant positive impact on the consumer price index and producer price index; it has a negative impact on industrial production in the short term, but fails to change its overall development trend. Overall, the economic system based on crude oil prices is stable, despite the fact that international crude oil prices are influenced by various complex and variable international factors.

A Study on the Correlation between International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation Cycle Measure and Economic Cycle Fluctuation

A Study on the Correlation between International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation Cycle Measure and Economic Cycle Fluctuation

Analysing the Risk Spillover of International Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate Fluctuations Using a Pooled Empirical Modal Decomposition Approach

Analysing the Risk Spillover of International Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate Fluctuations Using a Pooled Empirical Modal Decomposition Approach

Crude oil price uncertainty and corporate carbon emissions.

Low-carbon transformation has become a key priority in China, as demonstrated in the implementation of the Carbon Peak, Carbon Neutralization policy, leading to increasing concern of environmental performance at the corporate level. This paper measures the carbon emission of 1,089 Chinese companies through the EIO-LCA-based approach. Then we examine the impacts of international crude oil price fluctuations and the corporate development level on carbon emissions of individual companies. Our results indicate that an increase in international crude oil price uncertainty could inhibit the company’s carbon emission. In parallel, we find that there might exist an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) inverted U-shaped correlation between the company’s development level and its environmental performance. However, some exceptions to corporate carbon performance may emerge, resulting from specific corporate characteristics such as the state-owned nature and whether the firm is listed on the stock exchange. Our results could help companies optimize their internal carbon emission structure during the low-carbon transition process and contribute to effective policy regulations towards the target of carbon reduction.

Empirical Research on the Influence of International Crude Oil price fluctuation on Russian Exchange Rate

Oil is a kind of basic energy and has close relationship with the financial markets. Russia is the world crude oil exporter, whose rich energy resources make the country tend to invest in energy industry and make policies for it. This has led to the fact that its national economic structure is too simplified and its economy is heavily dependent on the oil industry. The total oil exports for Russia each year account for up to forty percent of its fiscal revenues. The economic characteristics of Russia and the fluctuation of international crude oil price greatly influence the macroeconomic changes of a country and therefore the exchange rate will make a change too. So this paper, will explore the relationship between the international oil price and Russian exchange rate and the degree of the influence between each other. The paper will select international crude oil price as exogenous variables and take the Russian currency as endogenous variables to establish VAR model. In view of the conclusion, this paper points out the drawbacks of Russia's current economic development, and finally puts forward reasonable and effective suggestions from the aspects of exchange rate system and economic structure.

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation on China's Stock Market

The price of oil, known as black gold, has always attracted the attention of countries around the world. It is already a consensus that international oil prices affect economic operations, and naturally will affect the stock market which is regarded as a barometer of economic operations. The purpose of writing this article is to reveal the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on China's stock market. In order to solve this problem, the author of this paper selected two sets of time series of Brent crude oil spot price and Shanghai Stock Index, and used Eviews software to perform various econometric tests such as cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function, and decomposition of variance. It is found that there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the international oil price and the Shanghai Stock Index, and that the international oil price is the Granger cause of the Shanghai Stock Index. Furthermore, the former has a positive dynamic impact on the latter as a whole. It reached its maximum by the middle of the third month, and then slowly decreased to stabilize. Compared with the results of other similar studies, this article draws more accurate conclusions thanks to the latest, more realistic data without much artificial processing. The conclusions of this paper can help stock investors and economic decision makers to make more effective decisions.

Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis

Previous studies have focused mainly on the price transmission from crude oil to producer price index (PPI). However, the PPI is an aggregate price index and consists of some producer price indices in different industrial sectors (sub-PPIs). Besides, there also exist transmissions relationships among sub-PPIs. Then, what are the price transmission mechanism from international crude oil to the sub-PPIs? Aiming to explore it, we propose a systematic framework combining the Granger causality test, the generalized variance decomposition method, and the network analysis method. The spot price of Brent crude oil and 15 Chinese sub-PPIs from January 1999 to November 2018 are taken as data samples. We find that (1) the full-sample analysis provides a useful summary of “average” transmission relationships, and the influence of crude oil to producer price volatility of petroleum-related industrial sectors is larger than others. (2) the rolling-sample analysis reveals that the empirical period can be divided into four phases, and there is a lag time in terms of the impact of crude oil price shocks on the transmission relationships between crude oil and sub-PPIs. (3) not all the sub-PPIs are affected by international crude oil price fluctuations in the empirical period, except for the petroleum industry.

Impact of oil price fluctuations on tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes

Understanding maritime network structure and traffic flow changes is a challenging task that must incorporate economic, energy, geopolitics, maritime transportation, and network sciences. The reported research examines whether there are linkages between oil price fluctuations, maritime network structure and traffic flow changes, and investigates whether tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes are driven by oil price fluctuations. This is essential knowledge for developing strategies energy policies. To address this, a systems-based approach is introduced to construct a maritime transportation network based on trajectory data. The maritime network structure and traffic flow changes are derived from monthly transport. Supporting methods were then used to reveal two-way linkages, long-term balance relationships and shock responses attributable to oil price fluctuations, the maritime network structure and traffic flow changes. Evidence suggests that there are different two-way linkages between oil price fluctuations, maritime network structure and traffic flow changes in oil import- dependent and export-dependent countries. International crude oil price fluctuations contribute to maritime network structure changes for many of the countries examined, and showed rapid growth peaks in the second or third month. Our results have important policy implications for national tanker transportation strategies within the context of oil price fluctuations, suggesting diversification of import origins and export destinations as well as adjustment of shipping mode to cope with the supply shocks caused by oil price fluctuations.

The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies

Oil is an important energy resource. Fluctuation in international crude oil prices affects all aspects of the economy. The exchange rate is one of the important channels for the international crude oil price shock to pass to the real economy and financial markets. The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of oil-importing countries has attracted more and more attention. The US dollar is the main invoice and settlement currency of the international oil market. The change of the US dollar exchange rate will inevitably affect the international crude oil price. By combing the relevant classic literature and recent literature, the relationship between international crude oil prices and the exchange rate of oil-importing countries is discussed. Due to the different methods of use, the relationship between the two is not conclusive. This paper probes into the impact paths of national crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of oil-importing countries, but the influence level depends on the relative degree of each country affected by oil prices, which cannot be generalized. The article summarizes the methods of studying the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, most of which are studying the causal relationship between the two and their mutual influence, nonlinear structure, and volatility spillover effects. Through reviewing and summarizing the relevant literatures, this paper argues that exploring the inherent laws of oil price volatility buffer under different exchange rate regimes and studying the transmission mode and intensity of oil price fluctuations on exchange rate effects can be the focus of future research.

Impacts of Falling Crude Oil Prices and Reduction of Energy Subsidies on the Indian Economy: A CGE Modelling Approach

This study analyzes the impacts of international crude oil fluctuations and energy subsidy (on LPG, petrol and diesel) removals on Indian economy. We have applied computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling as our relevant methodology, following Shoven and Whalley ( J Econ Lit XXII: 1007–1051, 1984) based on energy social accounting matrix (ESAM) of India for the year 2007–2008. It is seen that the international crude oil price fluctuations has a greater effect in determining gross domestic product (GDP) and exchange rate as compared to the effect of energy subsidy removal. With decrease in international crude oil price, GDP increases and exchange rate appreciates. On the other hand, with decrease in energy subsidy, GDP decreases and exchange rate appreciates. Moreover, with introduction of direct cash transfer scheme in lieu of subsidy for LPG, it is seen that the impact on demand of LPG (substitution effect) is negligible indicating that LPG is an essential commodity.

The contagion effect of international crude oil price fluctuations on Chinese stock market investor sentiment

Given the close contact between international financial markets,the contagion effect across markets is becoming increasingly obvious. In this paper, which uses principal component analysis to build a Chinese stock market investor sentiment index and further applies a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, we analyze the contagion effect of international crude oil price fluctuations on Chinese stock market investor sentiment. The results show that international crude oil price fluctuations significantly Granger cause Chinese stock market investor sentiment; in the long term, if the international crude oil price fluctuates by 1%, stock market sentiment will negatively fluctuate 3.9400%. From the perspective of short-term efficacy, if the international crude oil price fluctuates by 1%, stock market investor sentiment in the same period will negatively fluctuate 1.0223%. International crude oil prices made a greater early contribution to investor sentiment and showed a rapid growth trend, with a contribution of 2.8076% in the first period and 8.1955% in the second. The growth rate then slows and eventually stabilizes at the 25% level; the average contagion delay for international crude oil price fluctuation to affect investor sentiment is 8months.

Inflationary effects of oil price shocks in Indian economy

Stabilising inflation around certain preconceived level remains the predominant objective of monetary authorities all over the world as its variability has crucial ramifications on the real economy. However, the effective operation of monetary policy to this end largely hinges on the nature and dynamics of inflation both in the short‐run and long‐run. In this context, the present study focuses on theoretical investigation of how crude oil price fluctuations affect inflation in a real economy. Moreover, the study examines the nature of relationship between crude oil price fluctuations and inflation and its impact with reference to Indian economy.The study suggest that, in India, although the price of petroleum products are insulated against international crude oil price fluctuations by way of subsidies in order to curb inflation, in the long run, inflation manifest itself in the form of worsening fiscal deficit and undermine the sustainability of public debt. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evolution-Peak based Evolutionary Control and Analysis on Carbon Emission System of the United States

Abstract Based on the status quo of carbon emissions in USA and the international crude oil price fluctuations, this paper introduces control index and critical time of carbon emissions to find a new dynamic evolutionary model of carbon emissions of the States, deducing relative theories, such as Change Trends Theorem and Evolutionary Theorem. The critical time in the economic period is determined based on the evolutionary situation of the international crude oil price peaks, and it can be divided into four time intervals. Least-square method is used to analyze the dynamic evolutionary system of carbon emissions in the four time intervals with data provided by the international energy agency (IEA). Based on the nonlinear dynamic evolutionary model, the paper predicts carbon emissions by means of control index and control function, which facilitates carbon policy regulation and the system's external influence, and creates unique dynamic evolutionary factors of carbon emissions corresponding with the real situation of the United States. The financial crisis and shale gas large-scale mining have significantly changed America's energy supply structure. With the economy running upward, carbon emissions have a tendency to increase again. To achieve the goal of its reduction, different policies should be adopted by the US government. In this essay, the influence of the control index and the effect of critical time of carbon emissions to control function are analyzed. In addition, the dynamic evolutionary model is introduced and evolutionary scenario analysis is also conducted by modulating evolutionary coefficient and critical time.

Research on the Trend of Yen Exchange Rate and International Crude oil Price Fluctuation Affected by Japan’s Earthquake

Purpose: Whether this earthquake would become a turning point of the high oil price and whether it would have big impact on yen exchange rate are two issues to be discussed in this paper. Design/methodology/approach: To analyze deeply the internal relations between changes in yen exchange rate caused by Japan’s earthquake and price fluctuation of international crude oil, this research chooses middle rate of yen exchange rate during the 45 days around Japan’s earthquake and price data of international crude oil to do an empirical study, uses VAR model and HP trend decomposition to estimate the mutual effect of yen exchange rate change and price fluctuation of international crude oil in this period. Findings: It has been found in the empirical study with VAR model and HP filter decomposition model on the yen exchange rate and the international crude oil price fluctuation during 45 days around Japan’s earthquake that: the fluctuation of yen exchange rate around the earthquake is one of the main reasons for the drastic fluctuation of international crude oil price in that period. The fluctuation of international crude oil price directly triggered by yen exchange rate occupies 13.54% of its total variance. There is a long-term interactive relationship between yen exchange rate and international crude oil price. The upward trend of international crude oil price after the earthquake was obvious, while yen exchange rate remained relatively stable after the earthquake. Originality/value: As economic globalization goes deeper, the influence of natural disasters on international financial market and world economy will become more and more obvious. It has a great revelatory meaning to studying further each kind of natural disaster’s impacts on international financial market and world economics.

재고를 고려한 국제원유가격변동에 따른 휘발유 가격의 비대칭성 연구

본 연구에서는 국제 원유가격의 변동에 따른 휘발유 가격의 조정 과정에 원유 재고량이 미치는 영향을 오차수정모형을 통해 분석하였다. 분석에는 미국시장의 자료를 이용하였으며, 분석기간은 1988년 1월부터 2012년 12월까지이며 전체기간에 대한 분석과 더불어 5년 단위로 구간을 나누어 구간별 비대칭성의 여부와 정도의 변화에 대해 원유 재고가 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 전체 기간에서는 재고변수 도입 여부와 관계없이 모두 대칭성이 나타났으나 구간별로는 공적분 관계를 가지는 경우에 한하여 원유와 재고 간 유의한 관계가 성립하였다. 또한 구간별로 비대칭적 조정이 다르게 나타났으며, 재고 변수 도입 여부에 의해 비대칭성의 정도가 다름도 확인하였다. 본 연구의 분석결과는 향후 비대칭성 연구에 있어서 재고 변수를 고려하여 구간별 유가의 변동성을 분석할 필요가 있음을 보여준다. This study analyzed the impact of crude oil inventory while gasoline price adjusts to international crude oil price(WTI) fluctuations. We mainly focused on asymmetric relationship between crude oil and petroleum product prices and added oil inventory as an variable, using the error correction model which is based on Borenstein et al.(1997). This paper selected the sample period from January 1988 to December 2012, analyzed the asymmetry of each intervals and the influence of crude oil inventory to the degree of asymmetry changes, both full period and five years period respectively. The results showed that when considering crude oil inventory, existence and degrees of time amount asymmetry varies.

Not all demand oil shocks are alike: disentangling demand oil shocks in the crude oil market

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to re‐examine the structural origins of international crude oil price fluctuation.Design/methodology/approachThe paper establishes a structural vector autoregression model based on the generalized supply and demand analysis of crude oil price fluctuation and performance the structural decomposition of price shocks with impulse response analysis of those factors.FindingsIt is found that four kinds of structural shocks derived from the generalized supply and demand analysis are the essential determinants of crude oil prices fluctuation. On one hand, similar to Kilian's results, the supply side shocks – both the exogenous geopolitical ones and other oil supply shocks have little influence. Whereas, the demand side shocks – both the aggregate demand shock and the oil market specific demand shock have prominent effects. On the other hand, with the expanded sample range, it is found that the dynamic characteristic of the impulse response of oil price to demand side factors is not only incompatible with the basic economic theory, but also clashes with Kilian's statement based upon his research. It is conjured that the incompatibility comes from the ignorance of the finer decomposition of demand side factors. To decompose those demand side factors further, the US dollar liquidity was added into the model. The results show that the impact of US dollar liquidity on the fluctuation of oil prices cannot be ignored. The argument that ascribes the soaring international crude oil price to China's economic growth lacks theoretical and empirical evidence.Originality/valueThe paper contributes marginally to the research on the structural origins of international crude oil price fluctuation and sheds light on the possibility of finer decomposition of demand side oil shocks.

Higher prices at Canadian gas pumps: international crude oil prices or local market concentration? An empirical investigation

There is little consensus on whether higher retail gasoline prices in Canada are the result of international crude oil price fluctuations or local market power exercised by large vertically-integrated firms. I find that although both increasing local market concentration and higher average monthly wholesale prices are positively and significantly associated with higher retail prices, wholesale prices are more important than local market concentration. Similarly, crude oil prices are more important than the number of local wholesalers in determining wholesale prices. These results suggest that movements in gasoline prices are largely the result of input price fluctuations rather than local market structure.