International Risk Research Articles

Internal Control Management and Risk Prevention Measures of State-Owned Enterprises

Internal Control Management and Risk Prevention Measures of State-Owned Enterprises

A response-based internal pressure risk assessment method for PCCV with steel fiber reinforcement

The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a hot topic for highlighting the reliability and safety of infrastructures, especially for nuclear power plants (NPPs). The current internal pressure risk assessment method for prestressed concrete containment vessel (PCCV) generally adopts the internal pressure to characterize its fragility (namely internal-pressure-based fragility), even though the failure of PCCV is factually more tightly associated with PCCV’s realistic responses. This study proposes a novel response-based probabilistic risk assessment method for PCCV under internal pressure. The method adopts the response of the containment to characterize the fragility of components. Additionally, the steel fiber is introduced to form steel fiber reinforced concrete (SFRC) PCCV and the fragility and risk of the SFRC PCCV are quantitatively studied. The results indicate that a real and larger dispersion for the internal pressure risk of the PCCV would be induced by adopting the proposed internal pressure risk assessment method. The strategy of the addition of steel fiber to the conventional PCCV can decrease the internal pressure risk by about 72.1 % on average.

The Development of Risk Assessments and Supplier Resilience Models for Military Industrial Supply Chains Considering Rare Disruptions

Background: Supply chain risk and resilience in non-profit-seeking industries involving governmental agencies and quasi-governmental agencies have been under-studied. This paper focuses on the military industrial supply chain to demonstrate the development of risk assessment and supplier resilience models considering one-off disruption events such as the COVID-19 disruption. Methods: We establish relevant resilience-based categories through a literature review, supported by the experiences of supply chain experts within the military industry. We quantify the severity of the identified resilience categories, their detectability, and their occurrence probabilities. The failure modes and effects analysis technique is used to evaluate the risk priorities for the resilience categories to develop a risk assessment model. The risk assessment model is then extended to a supplier resilience model by incorporating specific rare disruption factors, which can act as a scenario planning tool. Results: It is found that (i) the top four resilience sub-categories are financial, topical data, business continuity planning, and supply chain mapping, while cost reduction strategies and green material usage are the least important; (ii) the main areas requiring focus are topical data, supply chain depth awareness, business continuity management, and internal risk management; and (iii) suppliers have least resilience in the areas of ‘topical information’ and ‘business continuity strategy’. Conclusions: The tool developed can help military industrial supply chains identify the main areas to enhance resilience from multiple perspectives of severity, occurrence probability, detectability, and suppliers.

Performance of contemporary cardiovascular risk stratification scores in Brazil: an evaluation in the ELSA-Brasil study

AimsDespite notable population differences in high-income and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), national guidelines in LMICs often recommend using US-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores for treatment decisions. We examined...

269 Global mining - case study in international risk management: controls through ICMI cyanide code

269 Global mining - case study in international risk management: controls through ICMI cyanide code

The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing

We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the United States than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output. Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium, and the United States holds a levered portfolio of capital financed in dollars. We quantify the effects of safety shocks and heterogeneity in risk-bearing capacity for global macroeconomic volatility, US external adjustment, and policy transmission, as of dollar swap lines. (JEL E32, E43, E44, E52, F44, G11, G15)

Clinical evaluation of primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing with extended HPV genotyping triage for cervical cancer screening: A pooled analysis of individual patient data from nine population-based cervical cancer screening studies from China.

To assess the clinical values of extended human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping in triage of high-risk HPV-positive women, focusing on the trade-off between cervical precancer detections and colposcopy referrals. A bivariate random-effects model was used to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of primary HPV screening with following triage strategies to detect cervical precancers: (i) partial genotyping for HPV16/18 combined with cytological testing at atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance threshold (used as the comparator), (ii) genotyping for HPV16/18/58/52, (iii) genotyping for HPV16/18/58/52/33, (iv) genotyping for HPV16/18/58/33/31, (v) genotyping for HPV16/18/58/52/33/31, and (vi) genotyping for HPV16/18/58/52/33/31/39/51. Internal risk benchmarks for clinical management were used to evaluate the risk stratification of each triage strategy. A total of 16,982 women (mean age 46.1 years, range 17-69) were included in this analysis. For CIN3+ detection, triage with HPV16/18/58/33/31 genotyping achieved lower positivity (6.85% vs. 7.35%, p = 0.001), while maintaining similar sensitivity (91.35% vs. 96.42%, p = 0.32) and specificity (94.09% vs. 93.67%, p = 0.56) compared with the comparator strategy. Similar patterns were observed for CIN2+ detection. Women with a positive HPV16/18/58/33/31 genotyping test had high enough risk for CIN3+ for colposcopy referral, while the risk for women with a negative test was below the 1-year return decision threshold according to internal benchmarks. Our findings suggested extended HPV genotyping is of potential to be used as a triage technique integrated into HPV-based cervical cancer screening, leading to reduced need for colposcopy referral while maintaining similar disease detection and efficient risk stratification.

Calculate the Rate of Natural Radioactivity in the Soil of Some Schools Using the NaI(Tl) Detector in the City of Hilla-Iraq

Activities and risk markers in 15-20 cm soil samples from Hilla City schools were thoroughly examined. This was made possible by the NaI(Tl) detector. The results indicated that the specific activity values for 238U from 2.244±0.06 Bqkg-1 to 23.637±0.60 Bqkg-1, with an average value of 11.70±0.39 Bqkg-1. Similar to 232Th, the average specific activity level was 8.53±0.31 Bqkg-1, ranging between 1.603±0.09 Bqkg-1 and 21.503±0.56 Bqkg-1. For 40K, its specific activity range was 222.96±2.72 to 441.824±2.78 Bqkg-1, with an average of 375.32±2.71 Bqkg-1. The average radiative forcing of the radium equivalent (Raeq) was calculated to be 52.80 Bqkg-1. The external risk index (Hex) was 0.14, and the internal risk index (Hin) was 0.17. The gamma risk index (Iγ) was determined to be 0.41. Also, the average outdoor absorbed dose level Dout is 26.35 nGyh-1, while the average indoor absorbed dose level Din is 50.54 nGyh-1. The average annual values of effective dose equivalents (internal and external) are 0.03 and 0.25 nGyh-1. The additional lifetime cancer risk ELCR(t) due to natural radioactivity in the models was 0.93x10-3. Note that the global average permissible nuclide concentration was 30, 32, and 420, and the danger index values were 1, 1, 6, 59, 84, 0.4, 0.07, and 1.45, respectively, based on the report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). After carefully comparing the study results with permissible global averages, they fit well within the recommended range.

Tail risk modelling of cryptocurrencies, gold, non-fungible token, and stocks

We present tail risk analysis of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin), non-fungible tokens, stocks (FTSE 100 and S&P 500) and Gold from November 12, 2017 to March 31, 2022 using conditional model-based Value-at-Risk (VaR). We explored which model specification and distributional innovation could best capture the tail risk in these assets. Using the VaR and other risk metrics, we showed that there is no superior model/metric for capturing tail risk. We found that, for all the assets, non-Gaussian distributional assumptions best modelled the asymmetry and fat-tails in the distributions of the returns; though there was more homogeneity in the distributional assumptions for Gold unlike the other assets. Our research is crucial for internal risk modelling and may increase global investor confidence for those who blend conventional and unconventional assets. Also, this study can help investors make informed decisions about asset allocation and risk tolerance in the events of extreme market conditions. Understanding the tail risks in financial assets can help investors hedge and diversify against risk in their portfolios. The theoretical implications also show a trade-off between the different assets as the presence of tail risk reflect the potential of returns, yet possible losses in the presence of extreme events. Last, the findings reinforce the need for risk managers to re-focus their attention to a set of superior models rather than a single best model for risk assessment.

Risk management under weighted limited expected loss

We present and solve an optimal asset allocation problem under a weighted limited expected loss (WLEL) constraint. This formulation encompasses the risk management problem with a limited expected loss (LEL) constraint as a specialized instance and offers a pertinent internal risk management instrument for firms. We observe that a WLEL constraint makes the optimizing investor pursue less volatile payoffs than the unconstrained Merton solution. Compared to the LEL-constrained problem with the same weighted default threshold, the WLEL optimal terminal wealth displays a less dispersed distribution with a smaller variance, suggesting a more secure risk management framework. Conducting a comprehensive equilibrium analysis in the presence of a WLEL risk manager, we validate the relatively conservative investment approach undertaken by the WLEL manager. Subsequently, we expand our findings to encompass broader incomplete market settings, wherein the uniqueness of the equivalent local martingale measure is not assured.

Analisis Risiko Proyek Pada Konstruksi Bangunan: Tinjauan Literatur

Risk is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can have either a positive or negative effect on the project objectives. This effect can be avoided by using risk management methods, to identify risks, assessing risks either quantitatively or qualitatively, and choosing the appropriate method for handling risks will minimalized the effects. In the study, the scope was to identify the potential risk occurs on steel building work based on the previous research. Using sources based on the previous research, here will be identifying what types of risk factors are most commonly occurs for steel building work. The types of risk that will be discussed here will be divided into three types based on internal risk, external risk, and project risk. Each type of risk includes technical and non-technical risks. Based on the data this study identify that internal risk with technical aspects is the most common type of potential risk occurs on steel structure building work.

An Analysis of the Development of Investment Banks' IPO Business under the Registered System

Under the reformed registration system, the role of investment banks in the Initial Public Offering (IPO) business has evolved significantly from the approval system. As crucial "gatekeepers" of the capital market, these banks now bear the responsibility of thoroughly examining issuance application materials for truthfulness, accuracy, and completeness. While the IPO business promises a prosperous future for investment banks, it also presents considerable challenges. Some banks face issues such as insufficient adherence to prudent examination requirements, lax establishment or implementation of internal control systems, and the need for improved information management. To enhance their sponsorship business, it is recommended that investment banks optimize talent training, internal management control, risk management, and intelligent information system construction. Cultivating professional sponsorship talents with comprehensive skills, reinforcing ethical standards, and conducting thorough reviews of IPO companies are crucial. Furthermore, optimizing the management system, establishing effective communication mechanisms, and enhancing risk management capabilities are essential steps. Leveraging advancements in computer technology, the construction of a secure and reliable intelligent information system is advised. As the reform progresses, investment banks should bolster international exchanges, cooperation, and professional competitiveness to evolve into reputable international brand banks.

Kajian Literatur Pada Identifikasi Risiko Pada Pemeliharaan Gedung

Naturally there is no object made by humans that cannot be demagerd. and over time, there are many changes both physically and financially in the finished building but its useful life can be extended by carrying out regular repairs through an activity known as maintenance. . The purpose of this study was to determine the type of risk, location and year of research related to risks in building maintenance. The method used in this study is a literature review. 45 Journals obtained online from various sources with the keywords risk on building maintenance. From these journals, it can be concluded that the highest type of risk in building maintenance is internal technical risk and project technicality, where most research locations are carried out in Indonesia and the most research year is in 2020.

Innovative risk management in the hotel and restaurant business: Scientific and practical aspect

Effective risk management is essential for success in the dynamic development of the hotel and restaurant business. Amid increasing competition and market instability, there is a need to develop innovative risk management strategies. The purpose of the study is to develop and test methods for assessing and minimising risks aimed at strengthening and sustainable development of enterprises in the hotel and restaurant business. Using abstract-logical analysis and a systematic approach, the study classifies enterprises depending on the level of risk. The results of this study demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of innovative management methods in the hotel and restaurant industry. The findings indicate that enterprises from the initial cluster are less vulnerable to risks, confirming the effectiveness of cluster analysis in assessing risks in the hotel and restaurant sector. In conditions of economic and political instability, systematic analysis and risk management became important. Internal risk management strategies, including innovative methods, were successfully used to reduce potential threats to the hotel and restaurant business, considering the specifics of this industry. The development and support of a dynamic information system became a key element, facilitating effective risk management and enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises. The mentioned enterprises, remaining within the lowest level of risk, confirmed the importance of using cluster analysis for identifying and managing risks in the hotel and restaurant sector. This study introduces innovative approaches to risk management in the hotel and restaurant sphere, providing specific strategies that can be used by companies to increase resilience and adapt to market competition challenges

Systematic Review And Analysis Of Risk Management In Port Construction Projects

In construction projects, there will be no good risks or any risks. In this potential risk will cause problems, the smaller the potential risk faced, the smaller the problem and a large increase in the construction project from the budget and implementation of development. Moreover, the greater the risk, the bigger the problem and the smaller the profit, if not handled properly, it will hinder the development. Based on this research, the risks taken are in several categories, the most important risk is the technical project of 14 journals, then the second place is the technical internal risk of 7 journals. In this study, several journals were analyzed based on the category of Indonesia and China, with 3 journals and the second in Greece with 2 journals. Journals based on an analysis of the category of object themes in industry are 48%, then second in academics are 24%.

Integration of risk, flexibility, and resilience in the optimization of water–energy nexus

AbstractCo‐location of power plants and desalination systems allows for a reduction in operational expense through energy integration. Furthermore, augmenting fossil‐based power plants with solar energy provides a means of reducing the carbon footprint of electricity generation. It is also critical to protect the combined energy–water system against internal and external risk factors to maintain a reliable supply of both electricity and water. Therefore, a systematic approach for assessing and mitigating risks is needed. Because of the complex water–energy interactions, a superstructure representation is created and a quantitative risk assessment is conducted to show potential risk factors that target specific sub‐systems. A surrogate model of the flexibility index analysis is built in order to optimize the superstructure for both cost and flexibility objectives. Finally, the generated design is simulated against disruption scenarios to obtain its resilience against various risk factors. This approach is applied to a case study on the Kuwait water–energy plant to show how the developed approach can help decision‐makers create operational strategies to protect against risk in a cost‐effective manner.

The effects of board compensation on the voluntary establishment of an internal audit function

PurposeThis study examines the effects of board members’ compensation on the voluntary establishment of an internal audit function in publicly listed firms. While previous studies have identified some individual determinants related to the voluntary establishment of an internal audit function, the existing evidence on how board members’ compensation affects voluntary use of internal audit is, at best, ambiguous, scarce and incoherent.Design/methodology/approachBoard compensation is a central incentive instrument in the classic principal–agent relationship between the owners and board members. The theme is empirically examined by using data compiled from Finnish publicly listed companies for the period 2015 to 2018. Since the dependent variable of the study is a binary variable, the logistic regression method was chosen as the statistical method of the study.FindingsOur results unequivocally show that generous compensation of the board members increases the likelihood of establishing an internal audit function. Thus, we conclude that good corporate governance can be improved through generous compensation of board members.Originality/valueIdentifying the determinants of internal audit is vital to better understand the mechanisms that facilitate firms' improvement of internal control and risk management in terms of voluntarily adopting an internal audit function, and the implementation of good governance in general. Although numerous determinants of internal audit have been identified in previous studies, this study showed that one of the key determinants has so far been overlooked; namely, the remuneration of board members.

The FIRE-IN project: Tsunami-risk related practitioner challenges and 3rd cycle overall results

This article summarizes the methodology for the identification of practitioners’ challenges, in the context of the H2020 funded project FIRE-IN (Fire and Rescue Innovation Network) activities. The project consisted of five thematic areas or “Thematic Working Groups”, as they are called, i.e., Search and Rescue Emergency Response, Structure Fires, Landscape Fires Crisis Mitigation, Natural Hazard Mitigation and Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear and Explosives, and three iterations, each one including the identification of capability challenges, the screening for solutions, that can potentially address these challenges, and the request for ideas regarding future innovations that will complement already existing ones and will assist in covering capability gaps. This article focuses on the natural hazard mitigation working group and tsunamis in the Mediterranean region as a case study for the 3rd and last iteration of the project. The scenario of a tsunami occurrence in the Mediterranean is the basis for the FIRE-IN 3rd cycle workshop, as an indicative example of a high impact – low probability event, which aims to identify practitioners’ Future Common Capability Challenges in Europe. The current status of the tsunami hazard in Europe, national and international tsunami risk mitigation measures and procedures and operational experience from recent events are also discussed. Focus is provided on the natural hazard mitigation and tsunami related practitioners’ challenges, while results from the FIRE-IN request for ideas process and the interaction between practitioners, researchers and industry are also discussed. The aim is to present practitioners’ current and future capability challenges , one of the main outcomes of the FIRE-IN project, and to provide further guidelines to stakeholders of disaster management towards a safer Europe, mainly, through preparedness and adaptation for stronger and resilient societies.

Silicon Valley Bank Collapse: Causes & Consequences

This paper discusses the concept of bank bankruptcy and highlights the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) as a significant case similar to the Lehman Brothers' collapse in 2008. Lehman's failure was attributed to the U.S. housing market collapse and internal risk management issues. SVB's failure, occurring in 2023, resulted from both internal factors (improper decisions, high-risk strategies, and poor financial management) and external factors (economic recession, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, regulatory challenges, and changes in the tech industry). The bankruptcy of SVB has far-reaching economic impacts on depositors, borrowers, entrepreneurs, investors, and the banking industry. It triggers a crisis of confidence, liquidity pressure, and systemic risks. The Federal Reserve implements emergency measures to address the fallout, reflecting on regulatory approaches to mitigate threats to the banking system. The comparison with Lehman Brothers underscores similarities in improper development strategies, asset structures, risk management, and regulatory oversight, leading to systemic risks and undermining financial market confidence.

International Diversification and Stock-Price Crash Risk

Despite the recent proliferation of research on internationalization, little attention has been paid to understanding the reasons behind the decrease in firm value accompanying international expansion. By delving into the underlying mechanisms and applying the concept of agency theory to a sample of US firms spanning from 2000 to 2022, we posit that an increased level of information asymmetry in internationally diversified firms incentivizes managers to prioritize their own interests. To protect their careers, CEOs of internationally diversified firms often suppress bad news. This behavior can lead to the accumulation of negative news and heighten the risk of a stock-price crash. Furthermore, we propose that higher levels of international experience, enhanced monitoring effectiveness, and efficient investment practices will negatively moderate the positive relationship between internationalization and stock-price crash risk.